Misc., Economics DINARRECAPS8 Misc., Economics DINARRECAPS8

.Going Cashless Looks More and More Like a Capitalist Scam

Going Cashless Looks More and More Like a Capitalist Scam

By Ankita RaoMar   22 2019

Lawmakers argue bans on cashless stores could protect tens of millions of Americans without access to credit cards.

When Bluestone Lane decided to go cashless, the people running the coffee franchise were thinking of efficiency.

“Cash takes time,” said Andy Stone, vice president of brand marketing and events at the company, which was inspired by cafe culture in Australia. “In New York, nobody wants to be waiting in line.” There’s also the counting of cash, the moving and transferring of it in actual trucks, which can be vulnerable to theft.

And, Stone noted, the transparency question. “Whatever comes into the system, comes into the system. It’s better for society if we pay more taxes.”

Going Cashless Looks More and More Like a Capitalist Scam

By Ankita RaoMar   22 2019

Lawmakers argue bans on cashless stores could protect tens of millions of Americans without access to credit cards.

When Bluestone Lane decided to go cashless, the people running the coffee franchise were thinking of efficiency.

“Cash takes time,” said Andy Stone, vice president of brand marketing and events at the company, which was inspired by cafe culture in Australia. “In New York, nobody wants to be waiting in line.” There’s also the counting of cash, the moving and transferring of it in actual trucks, which can be vulnerable to theft.

And, Stone noted, the transparency question. “Whatever comes into the system, comes into the system. It’s better for society if we pay more taxes.”

Bluestone is far from the only business allowing solely plastic or digital payments in a country where, a Federal Reserve report last fall estimated, credit and debit cards were used in 48 percent of consumer transactions in 2017.

But in the past several months, local and state governments have moved to resist this trend, citing concerns that a cashless economy could discriminate against the roughly 6.5 percent of US households—disproportionately young, low-income people of color—without bank accounts, and hike up the cost of goods to account for credit card fees.

In early March, Philadelphia became the first major US city to ban cashless businesses. A couple of weeks later, the state of New Jersey followed suit, becoming the second state to ban virtually all cashless businesses after Massachusetts, which has had a policy in place since the 1970s.

Now cities like New York, Washington, DC, and San Francisco are considering similar moves. The regulations reflect a national push to fight back against corporations and tech firms critics say are only serving to widen already-yawning economic disparities.

“This should be the law of the land,” said Paul Moriarty, the New Jersey assemblyman who led his state’s successful push to ban cashless enterprises, "just as the US dollar is legal tender and is supposed to be accepted for all debts.” Moriarty’s legislation garnered almost unanimous support in a state that includes Newark, one of the most underbanked cities in the country.

But it’s not only low-income families he’s accounting for. Moriarty also pointed out that going cashless could allow businesses, and customers, to be exploited or juiced by financial institutions. Visa, it should be noted, has been offering restaurants $10,000 to go cashless.

To continue reading, please go to the original article at

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/kzm4yv/cashless-businesses-discrimination

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Misc. DINARRECAPS8 Misc. DINARRECAPS8

.Forrrest Fenn's 5 Million Dollar Hidden Treasure

.Forrrest Fenn’s 5 Million Dollar Hidden Treasure

By Julia Glum  June 17, 2019

Everyday Money  &  Hidden Treasure

There's a Treasure Chest Worth Millions Hidden Somewhere in the Rocky Mountains. These Searchers Are Dedicating Their Lives and Savings to Finding It

Forrrest Fenn’s 5 Million Dollar Hidden Treasure

By Julia Glum  June 17, 2019

Everyday Money  &  Hidden Treasure

There's a Treasure Chest Worth Millions Hidden Somewhere in the Rocky Mountains. These Searchers Are Dedicating Their Lives and Savings to Finding It

190617-forrest-fenn-featured-image[1].jpg

When Cynthia Meachum lost her job in 2015, it was the best day of her life. To hear the 65-year-old tell it, she got the bad news, waved off her boss’s apologies and nearly skipped away.

“I wanted to do cartwheels,” she says.

Meachum had been close to retiring from her gig as a field service engineer in the semiconductor industry anyway. Getting laid off meant she could fully throw herself into her true passion: finding Forrest Fenn’s hidden treasure, worth millions.

She already had the “war room,” a converted library in her Rio Rancho, New Mexico, home where the walls are papered with giant maps of Yellowstone National Park and nearby forests. She had the resources, including manuals on fly fishing in Montana, the domain chasingfennstreasure.com, and connections to an international community of searchers.

FORREST FENN TREASURE HUNT.PNG

Cynthia Meachum in the "war room" of her home in Rio Rancho, NM, May 29, 2019. Photograph by Sarina Finkelstein.

Now — finally — she had the time.

“As soon as I walked out of that conference room, the first person I called was my spouse,” Meachum says. “And the second person I told was Forrest Fenn.”

It was, after all, not something she could really talk about at the water cooler. The elements of the Fenn treasure hunt sound like something out of a fairy tale: nine clues in a poem written by an elderly collector; a chest of jewels concealed somewhere in the Rocky Mountains; a bounty so valuable people have died looking for it.

To continue reading, please go to the original article at

http://money.com/money/longform/theres-a-treasure-chest-worth-millions-hidden-somewhere-in-the-rocky-mountains-these-searchers-are-dedicating-their-lives-and-savings-to-finding-it/

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Misc. DINARRECAPS8 Misc. DINARRECAPS8

.Why Don’t Americans Save?

.Why Don’t Americans Save?

From Get Rich Slowly By J.D. Roth — updated on 07 November 2018  
 
A new report from the Center for Financial Services Innovation says that only 28% of Americans are financially healthy. And it reinforces something we already knew: The U.S. saving rate sucks. Americans don't save.
 
The U.S. Financial Health Pulse divides people into three tiers of financial health.
 
Financially healthy people (28% of the U.S., 70 million people) are “spending saving, borrowing, and planning in a way that will allow them to be resilient and pursue opportunities over time.” 

Financially coping people (55%, 138 million) are “struggling with some, but not necessarily all, aspects of their financial lives.”
 
Financially vulnerable people (17%, 42 million) are “struggling with all, or nearly all, aspects of their financial lives.”

Why Don’t Americans Save?

From Get Rich Slowly By J.D. Roth — updated on 07 November 2018  
 
A new report from the Center for Financial Services Innovation says that only 28% of Americans are financially healthy. And it reinforces something we already knew: The U.S. saving rate sucks. Americans don't save.
 
The U.S. Financial Health Pulse divides people into three tiers of financial health.
 
Financially healthy people (28% of the U.S., 70 million people) are “spending saving, borrowing, and planning in a way that will allow them to be resilient and pursue opportunities over time.” 

Financially coping people (55%, 138 million) are “struggling with some, but not necessarily all, aspects of their financial lives.”
 
Financially vulnerable people (17%, 42 million) are “struggling with all, or nearly all, aspects of their financial lives.”

30811508277_fcd0b26106_c[1].jpg

 
Financial Health Of Americans

The full report is huge — it's an 80-page PDF! — and filled with data based on survey responses from 5000 people. The document does a great job of presenting the info, separating it into four major sections (spend, save, borrow, plan), then comparing how people in each financial health tier differ in their approaches.
 
Here, for instance, are the results for the survey question about saving rate:

43933915090_4d1fe55e08_c[1].jpg

Saving rate among Americans

In the nearly thirteen years I've been writing Get Rich Slowly, I've seen reports like this over and over and over again. It's a constant refrain: American's don't save. But why don't they save?

To continue reading, please go to the original article at

https://www.getrichslowly.org/us-saving-rate/#more-236678

 

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Simon Black, Misc., Gold and Silver DINARRECAPS8 Simon Black, Misc., Gold and Silver DINARRECAPS8

.The Price Of Gold Just Hit A Record High

.Notes From The Field By Simon Black

September 12, 2019  San Juan, Puerto Rico

The Price Of Gold Just Hit A Record High

A few hours ago, the European Central Bank announced a bonanza stimulus package: interest rate cuts, money printing, quantitative easing, the whole nine yards.

Europe’s economic growth has ground to a halt. The German economy actually shrank last quarter, according to official statistics.

So the European Central Bank is throwing everything including the kitchen sink at this problem. Their stimulus package is like a monetary defibrillator trying to shock Europe’s economies back to growth.

It’s pretty amazing when you think about it: interest rates in Europe are already NEGATIVE. They’ve been cutting rates for years, and it hasn’t worked.

Back in July 2008, the European Central Bank’s main interest rate was 3.25%.

Notes From The Field By Simon Black

September 12, 2019  San Juan, Puerto Rico

The Price Of Gold Just Hit A Record High

A few hours ago, the European Central Bank announced a bonanza stimulus package: interest rate cuts, money printing, quantitative easing, the whole nine yards.

Europe’s economic growth has ground to a halt. The German economy actually shrank last quarter, according to official statistics.

So the European Central Bank is throwing everything including the kitchen sink at this problem. Their stimulus package is like a monetary defibrillator trying to shock Europe’s economies back to growth.

It’s pretty amazing when you think about it: interest rates in Europe are already NEGATIVE. They’ve been cutting rates for years, and it hasn’t worked.

Back in July 2008, the European Central Bank’s main interest rate was 3.25%.

By the end of 2008, it was clear the global economy was slowing down, and the central bank had slashed interest rates to just 1%.

But they kept going.

By 2013, the ECB had reduced its primary interest rate all the way to zero.

And in 2014, they took the unprecedented step of cutting rates even further-- to NEGATIVE 0.10%.

European rates have been negative now for FIVE YEARS. Yet Europe’s economies are still in the dog house.

These results completely defy prevailing economic wisdom.

According to the ridiculous playbook that nearly all central bankers use, cutting interest rates is supposed to stimulate economic growth.

If interest rates are lower, it makes it easier and cheaper for people to borrow money. If it’s cheaper to borrow money, people buy more stuff… which creates more economic growth.

But that’s not happening.

They’ve been cutting rates, even below zero, to the point that you can actually get PAID to BORROW money in Europe. Yet those economies are still stagnating.

To continue reading, please go to the original article at

https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/the-price-of-gold-just-hit-a-record-high-25562/

To your freedom & prosperity, Simon Black Founder, SovereignMan.com  

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Advice, Misc., Personal Finance DINARRECAPS8 Advice, Misc., Personal Finance DINARRECAPS8

.‘Is It a Bad Idea to Borrow $1K From My Friend?’

.‘Is It a Bad Idea to Borrow $1K From My Friend?’

By Charlotte Cowles

I got laid off a few months ago and I’m still looking for a new job. I’ve been getting by with random work (babysitting mostly), but I’ve finally hit a point where I don’t think I’ll make rent this month.

I can’t ask my parents for help (they’re not in great financial shape either), and at this point, I think my best bet is to borrow money from a friend.

Her family seems well off, so I don’t think I’d be putting her in a tough spot. I also know she lent another friend money a little while ago. I just have no idea how to ask her, and I don’t want it to hurt our friendship.

 If she gave me a loan, ideally around $1,000, I could have some breathing room to search for a good job. How do I go about this? Or is there another, better option that I don’t know about?

‘Is It a Bad Idea to Borrow $1K From My Friend?’

By Charlotte Cowles

I got laid off a few months ago and I’m still looking for a new job. I’ve been getting by with random work (babysitting mostly), but I’ve finally hit a point where I don’t think I’ll make rent this month.

I can’t ask my parents for help (they’re not in great financial shape either), and at this point, I think my best bet is to borrow money from a friend.

Her family seems well off, so I don’t think I’d be putting her in a tough spot. I also know she lent another friend money a little while ago. I just have no idea how to ask her, and I don’t want it to hurt our friendship.

 If she gave me a loan, ideally around $1,000, I could have some breathing room to search for a good job. How do I go about this? Or is there another, better option that I don’t know about?

If you borrow rent money from a friend — or anyone, really — it will be awkward. Just because your friend can afford to spare some cash doesn’t mean she’s comfortable being in that position. And what if she turns you down? She’ll feel guilty for saying no, you’ll regret asking, and you’ll still be broke.

When I polled some financial experts, they all agreed: It’s generally not a great idea to get into a borrower-lender relationship with friends or even family members. “I’ve seen it ruin friendships, or at least seriously damage them,” says Kristin O’Keeffe Merrick, a financial adviser.

“If one of my clients wants to lend money to a loved one, I always tell them to go into it with no expectation of being paid back.

If they’re comfortable with never seeing that money again, then it’s okay to extend the loan.” Think of this from your friend’s perspective. If, for whatever reason, you never repaid her, would it cause her serious hardship? If the answer is yes, you shouldn’t risk it.

Alternatively, what happens if you take years to repay her? It’s possible that she’ll hold the favor over your head or judge the way you spend money. I know a woman who loaned money to her brother to buy a house, and she says it was hard to watch him make “frivolous” purchases (new sheets, drinks with friends) while she waited two years for him to pay her back.

“I wish we’d been more formal about defining the terms,” she says. “Then I probably wouldn’t have been so anxious about being taken advantage of.” She never told him how she was feeling — just quietly stewed — and money remains a sore spot between them.

No one wants to feel like their personal relationships are transactional. Friendship math — the soft, intimate back-and-forth of giving and taking that happens between people who care about each other — is not numerical, and paying your friend back may not be as simple as cutting her a check.

 You might need to massage the friendship in other, more nuanced ways to make her feel appreciated and affirm that she’s more than a piggy bank to you.

For all of these reasons, your friend should be a last resort, not just a more convenient source of cash than another part-time gig. I’m not making light of your situation — it sounds like you really are scraping the bottom of the barrel here.

To continue reading, please go to the original article at

https://www.thecut.com/2019/07/is-it-a-bad-idea-to-borrow-usd1k-from-my-friend.html

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Misc., Advice DINARRECAPS8 Misc., Advice DINARRECAPS8

."I’m Finally Making Money, But It Doesn’t Feel Great"

.I’m Finally Making Money, But It Doesn’t Feel Great’

By Charlotte Cowles

The Cut’s financial advice columnist Charlotte Cowles answers readers’ personal questions about personal finance. Email your money conundrums to mytwocents@nymag.com

 Dear Charlotte,

For the first time in my life, I’m making a really good salary, and so is my husband. We’ve always been very careful with money. We both maxed out our 401(k)s and IRAs even when we made tiny starting salaries.

We have a healthy emergency fund and an investment account that we filled in our 20s. We have no children, a mortgage with a cheap monthly payment, and healthy parents who support themselves.

Now that we have all these extra funds, we could be saving a lot more, but instead we spend it on fun vacations and nice clothing. I went from a ten-year-old reliable Japanese car to a Tesla, and a random thrift-store purse to a super-nice one from France.

I’m Finally Making Money, But It Doesn’t Feel Great’

By Charlotte Cowles

The Cut’s financial advice columnist Charlotte Cowles answers readers’ personal questions about personal finance. Email your money conundrums to mytwocents@nymag.com

 Dear Charlotte,

For the first time in my life, I’m making a really good salary, and so is my husband. We’ve always been very careful with money. We both maxed out our 401(k)s and IRAs even when we made tiny starting salaries.

We have a healthy emergency fund and an investment account that we filled in our 20s. We have no children, a mortgage with a cheap monthly payment, and healthy parents who support themselves.

Now that we have all these extra funds, we could be saving a lot more, but instead we spend it on fun vacations and nice clothing. I went from a ten-year-old reliable Japanese car to a Tesla, and a random thrift-store purse to a super-nice one from France.

I’m a painter (not my day job) and have bought so much paint on sale that I could probably never buy paint again. Before I even got out of bed yesterday, I spent $450 on a warehouse sale from this brand I’ve become obsessed with. I buy clothes on Instagram constantly.

It’s like now that I have all this extra money, I feel like I’ve become this whole new person I don’t recognize. How can I go back to being someone who’s fine with mismatched plates and thrift-store items, instead of this trend follower with a perfect house filled with nice shit that doesn’t matter?

I understand why you miss your old life. It feels good to live simply and to work toward larger financial goals. The problem, it seems, is that you never really envisioned the life you’d lead once you actually accomplished those goals and had money to spare. Now that your discipline has paid off — you’ve not only attained financial stability, but actual wealth — you don’t know what to do with it.

Your spending feels wild and out of control because you identify as someone who usually shows more restraint. It sounds like you’re struggling to reconcile that responsible part of yourself with the one who wants to live a little — and now has the means to do so.

I suspect you may also be feeling a little bit lonely. Studies have found that upward mobility, particularly when it involves transitioning to a higher socioeconomic class, can be isolating because it moves people away from familiar social circles and into unfamiliar ones.

The research shows that this is especially pernicious among women and minorities because they have fewer mentors and models to look toward as they make their way up the income ladder. It’s also tough to talk about — having a surplus of money isn’t exactly a “problem,” nor a situation that most people can relate to.

Right now, it seems like you’ve been following a sort of rich-person life template that’s readily available on Instagram and social media. It’s a seductive world of handwoven throw pillows and tasteful ceramics, and it’s also a bottomless money pit. Still, it doesn’t seem like you’ve gone off the rails.

I get the feeling that you see yourself as someone spraying hundred-dollar bills out of a grenade launcher, but let’s look at reality. You bought a purse, some clothes, paint on sale, and an environmentally-friendly car that will save you gas money over the years? Cut yourself some slack, and chalk it up to a learning experience.

You don’t necessarily need to save more — it seems like you’re doing fine in that department. Instead, you need to find a new source of the virtuous feeling that you used to get from socking money away, and that involves exploring new things to do with it. In other words, you should spend some time rethinking your priorities now that you have more money to spend on them.

To continue reading, please go to the original article at

https://www.thecut.com/2019/08/im-finally-making-money-but-it-doesnt-feel-great.html

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Misc., Economics, Personal Finance DINARRECAPS8 Misc., Economics, Personal Finance DINARRECAPS8

.Why America’s Families Are Struggling Financially

.Why America’s Families Are Struggling Financially

The finances of Americans may not be as good as they look from the outside.

Despite optimistic metrics like a nine-year-long bullish, if volatile, stock market, higher than expected job and wage growth, and consumer confidence levels nearing record highs, millions of Americans continue to struggle, a study released last week from financial consultancy nonprofit the Center for Financial Services Innovation (CFSI) found.

Only 28% of Americans are considered “financially healthy,” according to a CFSI survey of more than 5,000 Americans. “Financial health enables family stability, education, and upward mobility, not just for individuals today but across future generations,” the CFSI says. “Many are dealing with an unhealthy amount of debt, irregular income, and sporadic savings habits.”

Why America’s Families Are Struggling Financially

The finances of Americans may not be as good as they look from the outside.

Despite optimistic metrics like a nine-year-long bullish, if volatile, stock market, higher than expected job and wage growth, and consumer confidence levels nearing record highs, millions of Americans continue to struggle, a study released last week from financial consultancy nonprofit the Center for Financial Services Innovation (CFSI) found.

Only 28% of Americans are considered “financially healthy,” according to a CFSI survey of more than 5,000 Americans. “Financial health enables family stability, education, and upward mobility, not just for individuals today but across future generations,” the CFSI says. “Many are dealing with an unhealthy amount of debt, irregular income, and sporadic savings habits.”

Meanwhile, 17% of Americans are “financially vulnerable,” meaning they struggle with nearly all financial aspects of their lives, and 55% are “financially coping,” meaning they struggle with some but not all aspects of their financial lives.

The recent volatility in the Dow Jones Industrial DJIA, +0.17%  and S&P 500 SPX, -0.02%  has not helped Americans feel secure, experts say.

These findings are based on the CFSI Financial Health Score, a framework designed by CFSI to measure financial health more holistically by examining spending, saving, credit, and other indicators.

Some 44% of respondents said their expenses exceeded their income in the past year and they used credit to make ends meet. Another 42% said they have no retirement savings at all.

They come on the heels of a previous study from personal-finance site Bankrate.com that found only 29% of Americans had 6 months or more of emergency savings and a nearly equal percentage said they had none. Indeed, most Americans would not be able to pay for an emergency expense of $1,000, a separate 2015 study showed.

The median American household currently holds just $11,700 in savings, according to a recent analysis of Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data by personal-finance site Magnify Money.

The top 1% of households in the U.S. by income have a median savings of $1.1 million across a variety of saving accounts. The bottom 20% by income have no savings accounts and the second lowest 20% income earners have just $26,450 saved.

To continue reading, please go to the original article at

https://pulsedailynews.com/2019/09/why-americas-families-are-struggling-financially/?listab_list=listab_list

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Advice, Misc., Tip of the Day DINARRECAPS8 Advice, Misc., Tip of the Day DINARRECAPS8

.10 Steps To Become A Millionaire

.10 Steps To Become A Millionaire

In 5 Years  (Or Less)

By Benjamin Hardy PhD

"A lot of people think we are creatures of habit but we're not. We are creatures of environment." — Roger Hamilton

“Become a millionaire not for the million dollars, but for what it will make of you to achieve it.” — Jim Rohn

Hey!

Money is a means to far more important ends.

However, if you don't have clear financial goals—which you track, measure, and report consistently—then you certainly won't hit them.

If you don't have specific and stretching financial goals, it's likely due to limiting beliefs and a fixed mindset.

In this article, I detail a simple (and realistic) 10 Steps To Become A Millionaire In 5 Years (Or Less)

You can do this.  Have an epic week!

10 Steps To Become A Millionaire

In 5 Years  (Or Less)

By Benjamin Hardy PhD

"A lot of people think we are creatures of habit but we're not. We are creatures of environment." — Roger Hamilton

“Become a millionaire not for the million dollars, but for what it will make of you to achieve it.” — Jim Rohn

Hey!

Money is a means to far more important ends.

However, if you don't have clear financial goals—which you track, measure, and report consistently—then you certainly won't hit them.

If you don't have specific and stretching financial goals, it's likely due to limiting beliefs and a fixed mindset.

In this article, I detail a simple (and realistic) 10 Steps To Become A Millionaire In 5 Years (Or Less)

You can do this.  Have an epic week!

It doesn’t matter where you currently are in your financial situation — whether just starting out or already making lots of money.

 Most people, no matter what their income, are treading water. As a person’s income rises, so does their spending.

 Few people understand how to continually increase their income, lifestyle, and joy at the same time.

 In this article, you will learn:

 How to become wealthy

 How to build a life that continually increases your level of confidence and joy

 How to continually expand, learn, grow, and succeed as a person

 How to develop mentorships, friendships, and strategic partnerships with nearly anyone you want

 If these things are not interesting to you, then this article was not written for you.

 Here’s how it works:

 1.  Create A Wealth Vision

 “When riches begin to come they come so quickly, in such great abundance, that one wonders where they have been hiding during all those lean years.” — Napoleon Hill

 Step one of becoming financially successful is to actually create a vision for yourself financially. Einstein said that imagination is more important than knowledge. Arden said creativity is more important than experience.

 How much imagination do you have for your future?

 Do you see huge potential and possibility for your life?

 Or, do you see a pretty average life?

 Creating a vision is an iterative process. You don’t just create a vision once and then never look at it again.

 You continually create and write your vision — every single day.

 Lok at any area of your life in which you’re doing well, and you’ll find it’s because you see something beyond what you currently have. By that same token, look at any area of your life that isn’t exceptional, and you’ll find that you don’t see something beyond what you currently have.

 Most people are living in and repeating the past.

 Having a vision is focused on the future.

Your life and behavior immediately shift when you begin imagining a different future and stridently strive for it.

 In order to do this, you must obliterate your need for consistency. From a psychological perspective, people generally feel the need to be viewed by others as consistent. This need causes people to retain behavioral patterns, environments, and relationships that are ultimately destructive and unsatisfying for far too long.

To continue reading, please go to the original article at

https://benjaminhardy.com/10-steps-to-become-a-millionaire-in-5-years-or-less-4/

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Economics, Misc., Advice DINARRECAPS8 Economics, Misc., Advice DINARRECAPS8

.What I Learned From Losing $200 Million

.What I Learned From Losing $200 Million

The 2008 financial crisis taught me about the illusion of control, and how to give it up.

By Bob Henderson   December 24, 2015

I’d lost almost $200 million in October.  November wasn’t looking any better.

It was 2008, after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. Markets were in turmoil. Banks were failing left and right. I worked at a major investment bank, and while I didn’t think the disastrous deal I’d done would cause its collapse, my losses were quickly decimating its commodities profits for the year, along with the potential pay of my more profitable colleagues. I thought my career could be over. I’d already started to feel those other traders and salespeople keeping their distance, as if I’d contracted a disease.

My eyes started to fill from a sudden wash of gratitude and relief that came, I think, from no longer being alone.

I landed in London on the morning of November 4, having flown overnight from New York. I was a derivatives trader, but also the supervisor of the bank’s oil options trading team, about a dozen guys split between Singapore, London, and New York. Until this point I’d managed the deal almost entirely on my own, making the decisions that led to where I ... we ... were now.

What I Learned From Losing $200 Million

The 2008 financial crisis taught me about the illusion of control, and how to give it up.

By Bob Henderson   December 24, 2015

I’d lost almost $200 million in October.  November wasn’t looking any better.

It was 2008, after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. Markets were in turmoil. Banks were failing left and right. I worked at a major investment bank, and while I didn’t think the disastrous deal I’d done would cause its collapse, my losses were quickly decimating its commodities profits for the year, along with the potential pay of my more profitable colleagues. I thought my career could be over. I’d already started to feel those other traders and salespeople keeping their distance, as if I’d contracted a disease.

My eyes started to fill from a sudden wash of gratitude and relief that came, I think, from no longer being alone.

I landed in London on the morning of November 4, having flown overnight from New York. I was a derivatives trader, but also the supervisor of the bank’s oil options trading team, about a dozen guys split between Singapore, London, and New York. Until this point I’d managed the deal almost entirely on my own, making the decisions that led to where I ... we ... were now.

But after a black cab ride from Heathrow to our Canary Wharf office, I got the guys off the trading floor and into a windowless conference room and confessed: I’d tried everything, but the deal was still hemorrhaging cash. Even worse, it was sprouting new and thorny risks outside my area of expertise.

In any case, the world was changing so quickly that my area of expertise was fast becoming obsolete. I pleaded for everyone to pitch in. I said I was open to any ideas.

7938_b4892f808f9efbd561cecbfbec3ad20d[1].jpg

As I spoke, I noticed that one of the guys had tears welling up in his eyes. I paused for a second, stunned. Then my own eyes started to fill from a sudden wash of gratitude and relief that came, I think, from no longer being alone.

Stress testing is a standard technique derivatives traders use to test how their portfolio will perform in an imagined “worst-case” scenario. The problem is that “worst-case” is subjective, making stress testing as much of an art as a science, and exposing the trader doing the testing to something called the “illusion of control.”

The psychologist Ellen Langer coined the phrase in 1975 to describe “an expectancy of personal success probability inappropriately higher than the objective probability would warrant.”

Experimental evidence for the illusion goes back at least to 1965, when one research team found that college-educated employees of AT&T asked to press buttons to illuminate lights had the tendency to believe they had more control than they actually did, even when the lights lit randomly, and even when they used pen and paper to track their results.

In another study, done in 1992, a group of Israeli college students was found to be more willing to bet on dice, and to bet bigger, before they rolled than after, reflecting the belief that they had control over their rolls. Such a preference for prediction over postdiction had been observed before, but this study also found that the preference grew stronger when the students were threatened with an electric shock if they guessed wrong—evidence that stress amplifies the illusion of control.

Langer’s work showed that the illusion is also intensified by “skill cues”: circumstances that make people feel like they’re engaged in acts of skill rather than luck. Such cues include competition, choice, and familiarity with the task at hand.

Therefore people will tend to overestimate their prospects in a game of pure chance even more than usual if they face a nervous-looking opponent, or if they pick rather than get assigned a lottery ticket, or if they’re given the chance to familiarize themselves with an apparatus that’s simply spitting out random numbers.

Or, I might add, if they’ve toiled over complicated mathematical equations to back up their decisions.

I thought I knew what I was getting into. I’d helped my bank win the fateful deal by developing a complex option on crude oil, together with a risk management strategy. My equations told me how I could buy and sell simpler financial products over time to approximately offset my daily gains and losses on the option I’d sold.

To continue reading, please go to the original article at

http://nautil.us/issue/31/stress/what-i-learned-from-losing-200-million

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Misc., Simon Black, Gold and Silver DINARRECAPS8 Misc., Simon Black, Gold and Silver DINARRECAPS8

.Here’s Every Reason To Avoid Buying A Gold ETF

.Notes From The Field By Simon Black

September 9, 2019  Bahia Beach, Puerto Rico

Here’s Every Reason To Avoid Buying A Gold ETF

Buckle up, this one’s going to be entertaining… because I should have called this note “Why you should always read the fine print.”

This morning I read through the prospectus and annual reports of the most popular Gold ETFs in the world.

First, some background:

ETF stands for ‘exchange-traded fund’. It’s sort of like a mutual fund that’s listed on the stock exchange, meaning investors can buy/sell shares of an ETF just like they would buy/sell shares of Apple, Ford, or (God help us) Netflix.

Notes From The Field By Simon Black

September 9, 2019  Bahia Beach, Puerto Rico

Here’s Every Reason To Avoid Buying A Gold ETF

Buckle up, this one’s going to be entertaining… because I should have called this note “Why you should always read the fine print.”

This morning I read through the prospectus and annual reports of the most popular Gold ETFs in the world.

First, some background:

ETF stands for ‘exchange-traded fund’. It’s sort of like a mutual fund that’s listed on the stock exchange, meaning investors can buy/sell shares of an ETF just like they would buy/sell shares of Apple, Ford, or (God help us) Netflix.

But unlike Apple, which is an operating business with employees, products, revenue, etc., an ETF is NOT an operating business. It’s a fund that merely pools capital to own assets.

The benefit for investors is that ETFs can be an easy and convenient way to invest in certain assets which would otherwise be difficult to buy.

If someone wants to buy Egyptian stocks, for example-- they could open a brokerage account in Cairo… or buy an Egypt ETF that’s listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

The ETF is a LOT easier for most investors.

But there are also ETFs for gold and silver. And I find this mystifying.

We’re not talking about Egyptian stocks. Gold and silver are easy to buy. You could have Canadian Maple Leaf gold coins delivered to your home with a few mouse clicks.

So gold ETFs provide no added convenience.

Yet there’s an enormous amount of downside.

First off-- it’s important to know that if you buy an ETF, you’re paying for a ton of unnecessary expenses.

The ETF has to pay custodian fees, marketing fees, listing fees to the New York Stock Exchange, audit fees, management fees, etc.

I’m chairman of the Board of Directors for a company that’s listed on a stock exchange, and trust me-- the listing fees are REALLY expensive.

If you own physical gold in your own safe, you wouldn’t have to suffer the cost of paying lawyers, auditors, and investment bankers.

But GLD does. Which means that as a GLD investor, YOU are fundamentally paying those costs.

And remember that ETFs aren’t operating businesses. Apple makes money selling overpriced hardware. But GLD has no products, and hence doesn’t generate any revenue.

To continue reading, please go to the original article at

https://www.sovereignman.com/investing/heres-every-reason-to-avoid-buying-a-gold-etf-25548/

To your freedom & prosperity, Simon Black Founder, SovereignMan.com

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Misc., Advice DINARRECAPS8 Misc., Advice DINARRECAPS8

.The Relative Value of Money

.The Relative Value of Money

By Kevin  Financial Panther

There’s a concept that I’ve been thinking about over the past couple of years, especially as I’ve made this transition from a full-time, professional, real job, to a quasi-fake job as a blogger and gig economy worker. It has to do with a concept you could call the relative value of money.

When I think about what that means, it’s basically the idea that money you earn from one activity might be worth more to you personally compared to the money you earn from another activity.

In fact, it might be worth so much more to you that you’ll opt to spend your days earning money in that manner even if it means you’re making less money from an objective standpoint. This concept has really come into clearer focus to me over the past few years and I think it helps explain why I’ve made a lot of the work decisions I’ve made.

The Relative Value of Money

By Kevin  Financial Panther

There’s a concept that I’ve been thinking about over the past couple of years, especially as I’ve made this transition from a full-time, professional, real job, to a quasi-fake job as a blogger and gig economy worker. It has to do with a concept you could call the relative value of money.

When I think about what that means, it’s basically the idea that money you earn from one activity might be worth more to you personally compared to the money you earn from another activity.

In fact, it might be worth so much more to you that you’ll opt to spend your days earning money in that manner even if it means you’re making less money from an objective standpoint. This concept has really come into clearer focus to me over the past few years and I think it helps explain why I’ve made a lot of the work decisions I’ve made.

MONEY IN HAND.jpg

One of the weird things I’ve done consistently over the past few years is doing pretty low-level side hustles using sharing economy and gig economy apps. From an objective standpoint, it really didn’t make much sense for me to do all of this stuff. At the peak of my lawyer career, I was making $300 or more per day from my salary, obviously more than enough to live very comfortably.

And yet, even though I made all of this money, I still chose to spend my spare hours doing silly things like delivering food to people on my bike and selling stuff I found in the trash.

The common criticism I’d get was that doing this stuff was a waste of my time. The better use of my time would be to focus on my job and continue to progress in my legal career. Eventually, I could try to become a partner somewhere or just do something to continue to increase my salary, or at least to increase my prestige.

In truth, that’s probably what I should have done, at least if we’re looking at pure numbers. I could obviously make much more money as a lawyer than I could from all of the stupid things I was doing. But the few bucks I made doing my random gig stuff felt so much more valuable and rewarding to me compared to any dollar I earned from my regular paycheck.

The thing I’ve learned to value more and more is control over my life. I suspect that’s something a lot of people on the path to financial independence value too.

The money I made from my day job, however, was the exact opposite of control over my life. I had to be at the office at a certain time, do things that other people told me to do, and basically, plan my life around my job. It made me feel trapped.

A dollar might have the same objective value no matter how you choose to earn it. But how you personally value that dollar is another matter. I think that’s worth thinking about.

Thinking About The Relative Value Of Money

One of the podcasts I listen to pretty regularly is Tropical MBA, which I highly recommend you listen to if you’re the entrepreneurial type looking for some help and motivation.

To continue reading, please go to the original article at

https://financialpanther.com/the-relative-value-of-money/

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