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Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Wednesday Evening 10-7-26

Iraq’s Dollar Rate Increase Draws Lawmaker Backlash

2026-10-07 Shafaq News- Baghdad   Iraq’s Finance Ministry said on Wednesday that it had adopted a base exchange rate of 1,500 Iraqi dinars per US dollar and suspended advance customs payments, prompting lawmakers to seek an emergency parliamentary session to reverse the currency decision.

Iraq’s Dollar Rate Increase Draws Lawmaker Backlash

2026-10-07 Shafaq News- Baghdad   Iraq’s Finance Ministry said on Wednesday that it had adopted a base exchange rate of 1,500 Iraqi dinars per US dollar and suspended advance customs payments, prompting lawmakers to seek an emergency parliamentary session to reverse the currency decision.

Approved under Cabinet Resolution No. 544 on Oct. 6, 2026, the measures revised the official exchange rate and suspended Resolution No. 413 governing advance customs collection.

Following an emergency recommendation from the finance minister and Central Bank of Iraq governor, the Cabinet established three rates: 1,500 dinars per dollar for purchases from the Finance Ministry, 1,510 for sales to banks, and 1,520 for sales by banks and non-bank financial institutions to customers.

The adjustment raises the official retail rate from 132,000 to 152,000 dinars per $100, making each $100 purchase 20,000 dinars more expensive.

Read more: Why Iraq's dinar keeps sliding despite fresh US cash

Concerned about rising consumer prices, lawmakers called for an emergency parliamentary session to reconsider the move. In a statement, MP Ibtisam Al-Hilali of the State of Law Coalition argued that, if the government sought to address the financial crisis through the exchange rate, it should be set at 1,400 dinars per dollar or lower to limit the impact on food prices. Parliament, she added, would have a say in any exchange-rate change through the budget law, in consultation with the government, to help control the parallel-market rate.

The revised rate brings the official price closer to that of the parallel market, where Baghdad exchange shops were selling $100 for 168,500 dinars on Wednesday.

Economist Ali Daadoush previously attributed the disparity largely to limited access to dollars through official banking channels rather than insufficient reserves, saying restrictions on overseas transfers, informal trade, speculation and market expectations were widening the gap and raising import costs.

Read more: Iraq overhauls import fees with advance customs payments

Customs procedures have also added pressure. The suspended mechanism, approved in August and scheduled to take effect on Oct. 1, required importers to pay estimated duties and tax deposits before banks could transfer funds abroad to cover imported goods.

Under the system, authorities calculated payments through ASYCUDA using invoices, product classifications, and declared values. Baghdad Chamber of Commerce spokesperson Rashid al-Saadi previously told Shafaq News that customs duties could reach 30%, 35% or, in some cases, 40%, in addition to a 3% tax deposit, significantly increasing upfront expenses.

Read more: Can Iraq’s economy weather a wider regional shock? Experts differ

https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-s-dollar-rate-increase-draws-lawmaker-backlash

Economist: Iraq May Need IMF After Dinar Devaluation

2026-10-07 Shafaq News- Baghdad   Iraq may need a program with the International Monetary Fund if oil revenues continue to decline and the dinar devaluation that took effect on Wednesday fails to provide enough support to public finances, Standard Chartered economist Carla Slim told Asharq Bloomberg.

Slim said any potential IMF program could involve structural reforms, particularly to Iraq’s public-sector wage bill, if oil production fails to recover, while production is currently running at about 70% of its January level.

The dinar devaluation gives the government more local currency for every dollar earned from oil exports, helping it finance salaries, Slim said, but the effectiveness of the measure would depend on how long the fiscal pressure lasts and how quickly oil production and exports recover.

Earlier today, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) put into effect a new exchange-rate structure, buying dollars from the Finance Ministry at 1,500 dinars per dollar, selling them to banks at 1,510, and setting the cash selling rate to the public at 1,520, compared with the previous public rate of 1,320.

The adjustment would support domestic production and industry, encourage investment in non-oil sectors, and create jobs, the CBI said. Foreign reserves are “sufficient” to meet foreign-currency demand for trade financing, overseas bank-card transactions, and cash sales to travelers.

The devaluation followed mounting pressure on Iraq’s public finances after the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted oil exports. Reuters reported that exports fell to about 2.34 million barrels per day (bpd) in August from more than 3.6 million previously, while Iraq’s proposed 2027 budget assumes exports of around 4 million bpd.

The official-rate change did not immediately close the gap with the parallel market. A Shafaq News survey put the dollar at 168,500 dinars per $100 in Baghdad’s Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya central exchanges, compared with the new official public rate of 152,000 dinars per $100.

Read more: Why Iraq's dinar keeps sliding despite fresh US cash

Another adjustment to the dinar’s exchange rate could also remain an option over the next six to 12 months, depending on oil revenues and foreign reserves, according to Slim. Over the longer term, she said reducing the budget’s dependence on oil from about 90% to 45% would require higher non-oil government revenues through stronger tax collection and the digitization of government services.

In June, Government spokesperson Haider Al-Aboudi said Al-Zaidi was heading a specialized committee seeking to reach the same 45% target within 10 years by increasing non-oil revenues, including receipts from border crossings, customs, and government collections.

https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/Economist-Iraq-may-need-IMF-after-dinar-devaluation

CBI Pledges Unrestricted Dollar Supply After Devaluation

2026-10-07 Shafaq News- Baghdad   The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) said on Wednesday its foreign reserves “are strong enough to meet all requests for dollars in full and without restrictions,” as its new exchange rate, weakening the dinar, took effect.

The reserves guarantee immediate coverage of all external transfer requests to finance trade, bank card settlements and cash sales to travelers, the bank said in a statement.

Under the new rate, the central bank buys dollars from the Finance Ministry at 1,500 dinars, sells them to banks at 1,510 dinars and sells cash dollars to the public at 1,520 dinars. The previous end-user rate was 1,320 dinars per dollar.

The bank described the change as a "positive adjustment" that would support Iraqi products and local industry by making domestic goods more competitive against imports. It said the move would encourage factories and national companies to expand, attract investment to non-oil sectors and create jobs, particularly for young Iraqis, by helping small and medium-sized businesses grow.

The adjustment was made in coordination with the Council of Ministers under the amended Central Bank Law No. 56 of 2004, according to the statement.

The Iraqi Contractors Union asked Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi on Wednesday to postpone applying the new rate, warning it would raise project costs. Lawmakers have also called for an emergency parliamentary session to reconsider the decision over concerns about consumer prices.

The new rate brings the official price closer to the parallel market, where Baghdad exchange shops were selling $100 for 168,500 dinars on Wednesday.

Read more: Banking without trust: Why Iraqis still keep their money in cash

https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/CBI-pledges-unrestricted-dollar-supply-after-devaluation

Trade Bank Of Iraq Injects Dollars To Support Dinar

2026-10-07  Shafaq News- Baghdad  The state-owned Trade Bank of Iraq (TBI) began on Wednesday supplying foreign currency to the market through official banking channels to support the Iraqi dinar and ease dollar shortages.

The bank said it is injecting cash in foreign currency to meet the needs of trade and other economic activities, while monitoring the market to assess demand. The aim is to limit exchange-rate swings and strengthen the banking sector's role in stabilizing the local market, it said.

Read more: Why Iraq's dinar keeps sliding despite fresh US cash

Iraq's new official exchange rate took effect today, with the Central Bank now buying dollars from the Finance Ministry at 1,500 dinars, selling them to banks at 1,510 and selling cash dollars to the public at 1,520, up from 1,320 previously. On the parallel market, the dollar rose to about 1,680 dinars after the devaluation was announced.

Read more: Iraq’s dollar rate increase draws lawmaker backlash

https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/Trade-Bank-of-Iraq-injects-dollars-to-support-dinar-3

Cbi Official Clarifies Limits On Currency Trader Arrests

2026-10-07 Shafaq News- Baghdad   The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has exclusive authority to regulate and oversee banking and non-banking financial institutions, a senior official told Shafaq News on Wednesday, clarifying that security forces cannot pursue or detain foreign currency traders without judicial authorization.

Security agencies may enforce laws and court rulings in coordination with relevant authorities when violations are formally reported, the official said, but cannot independently act against individuals dealing in foreign currencies without explicit judicial orders.

Earlier on Wednesday, the CBI introduced a new exchange-rate structure, setting the dollar at 1,500 dinars for purchases from the Finance Ministry, 1,510 for sales to banks, and 1,520 for sales to the public, up from the previous retail rate of 1,320. The parallel-market rate reached 1,680 dinars per dollar following the adjustment.

The bank had characterized the decision as a “strategic step” toward financial stability, assuring citizens and businesses that its foreign reserves remained strong and sufficient.

Read more: Can Iraq’s economy weather a wider regional shock? Experts differ

https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/CBI-official-clarifies-limits-on-currency-trader-arrests

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What Makes The Federal Reserve Decide To Raise Or Lower Interest Rates?

What Makes The Federal Reserve Decide To Raise Or Lower Interest Rates?

Sep 28, 2026  Economic outlook   Hilarey Gould  Editorial staff, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

As the United States’ central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed) exists to promote the overall strength, stability and well-being of the U.S. economy.

As part of its monetary policy function, the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate to help meet its so-called dual mandate: controlling inflation and supporting maximum employment.

What Makes The Federal Reserve Decide To Raise Or Lower Interest Rates?

Sep 28, 2026  Economic outlook   Hilarey Gould  Editorial staff, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

As the United States’ central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed) exists to promote the overall strength, stability and well-being of the U.S. economy.

As part of its monetary policy function, the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate to help meet its so-called dual mandate: controlling inflation and supporting maximum employment.

Interest rate hikes by the Fed aim to cool economic activity and inflation, while interest rate cuts aim to stimulate economic growth.

When the Federal Reserve decides to raise or lower the federal funds rate, it makes headlines – and for good reason. Even small rate adjustments affect the cost and availability of credit, sending ripples through the country’s larger economy. But why does the Federal Reserve cut or hike interest rates in the first place? Read on for a full breakdown, including how the federal funds rate functions as a powerful lever in the U.S. economy.

What is the Federal Reserve?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States. Established in 1913 through the Federal Reserve Act, it comprises 12 Federal Reserve Banks, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The three arms work together to carry out the following five functions:

  • Conducting the nation’s monetary policy

  • Supervising and regulating U.S.-based financial institutions

  • Promoting stability within U.S. financial systems

  • Fostering the safety and efficiency of financial transactions at all levels of the economy

  • Promoting community development and consumer protection Footnote 1 Opens overlay

With regard to the Fed’s most visible function – conducting monetary policy – Congress has tasked it with a dual mandate to maintain maximum employment and stable prices in the United States.

Current Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been vocal about his commitment to fighting inflation and ensuring the central bank “delivers price stability.” Footnote 2 Opens overlay At the same time, Fed officials closely monitor the labor market every month to understand if it’s heating up or slowing down.

On the price stability front, the Fed’s goal is an annual inflation rate of 2%. Full employment, however, isn’t as easy to gauge. Instead of relying on a single figure to inform its decisions, the Fed considers a broad set of labor market indicators to determine what qualifies as maximum employment at any given moment. 

Why does the Fed change interest rates?

One of the main tools the Fed uses to achieve its dual mandate is the federal funds rate – the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans of reserves. (Reserves refer to both the amount of cash a bank has physically on hand and its deposits with a central bank.)

 When the Fed makes changes to this rate, financial institutions follow suit, which impacts the cost of all credit products (such as mortgages, car loans, personal loans, business loans, credit cards and more).

In turn, changes to the cost of credit products affect the spending behavior of U.S. households and businesses. Knowing this, the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate to steer economic activity as needed to achieve its goals.

What leads the Fed to raise interest rates?

The Fed raises interest rates when it needs to tighten monetary policy. One of the main reasons it does so is to combat high inflation.

For example, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged in 2022, hitting a 40-year high of 9.1% in June of that year – far above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Footnote 3 Opens overlay

To stop and reverse the surge, the Fed implemented 11 rate hikes between 2022 and 2023, increasing the target range to 5.25%–5.50%. Footnote 4 Opens overlay

The rate hikes worked in bringing down inflation and the Fed lowered its federal funds rate. Then when stubborn inflation returned in 2026, the Fed increased the federal funds rate for the first time in three years at its September FOMC meeting. Footnote 5 Opens overlay

The FOMC also raises rates in response to factors that signal economic vitality, including a strong labor market, wage growth and expanding economic activity.

What leads the Fed to lower interest rates?

The Fed lowers interest rates when it needs to ease monetary policy – primarily to stimulate the economy and prevent or soften a recession. Among the key factors that can lead to cuts are rising unemployment, a weak labor market and subdued inflation.

In March 2020, for example, the FOMC dropped the federal funds rate to a target range of 0% to 0.25% in response to severe economic disruption brought on by the first U.S. wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The rate remained at 0% to 0.25% until rate hikes were needed to calm surging inflation in 2022. Footnote 6 Opens overlay After raising the rate and keeping it at a target range of 5.25% to 5.50% through 2024, the Fed lowered rates several times, with the last cut in December 2025 in response to positive economic signals. Footnote 7 Opens overlay

The Fed’s decision-making process when it comes to raising and lowering interest rates

The FOMC is the 12-member monetary policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve. It consists of the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and four other Reserve Bank presidents (who serve one-year terms).

The group meets at least eight times a year to review economic and financial data and to decide on monetary policy actions. Its primary responsibilities include setting the target federal funds rate and directing open market operations, such as the buying and selling of U.S. government securities.

After each meeting, the FOMC releases a written statement outlining its decisions, including interest rate adjustments and the purchase or sale of securities to control the U.S. money supply. This statement is often accompanied by a press conference.

Key economic indicators the Fed monitors to make rate decisions

The Fed monitors a wide range of economic indicators to determine whether it will raise, lower or hold interest rates. Here are the most notable and how they’re tracked:

  • Inflation

    • What it measures: The rate at which the cost of goods and services is increasing

    • Reports tracked: The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, consumer price indexes, producer price indexes and the Spot Commodity Price Index

  • Labor market data

    • What it measures: The supply of and demand for labor

    • Reports tracked: Nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, measures of labor utilization, the nonemployment index, labor market flows, labor force participation and more

  • Gross domestic product (GDP)

    • What it measures: The total output of goods and services in the economy

    • Reports tracked: Real GDP and its components

  • Consumer spending

    • What it measures: U.S. household spending

    • Reports tracked: Retail sales, consumer spending and income, auto sales, personal savings rates and housing market activity

  • Business investment

    • What it measures: U.S. business investments

    • Reports tracked: Investments in nonresidential structures, equipment, intellectual property, private construction and real nonresidential fixed investments

  • Trade

    • What it measures: International trade trends

    • Reports tracked: Balance of international trade and exchange value of the U.S. dollar

  • Manufacturing

    • What it measures: Manufacturing trends

    • Reports tracked: Industrial production, capacity utilization rates for manufacturing, core capital goods and more

  • Monetary policy and financial markets

    • What it measures: The financial system itself

    • Reports tracked: Fed system assets, monetary policy instruments, the federal funds rate, FOMC statements, money market rates, capital market rates, Treasury yield curve, fed funds futures and economic projections for the federal funds rate

TO READ MORE:  https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/federal-reserve-raise-lower-interest-rates

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THE XRP STORY IS BECOMING MUCH BIGGER: Rob Cunningham

THE XRP STORY IS BECOMING MUCH BIGGER

“Ladies & Gentlemen, Start Your Engines!”

See what is converging?

Not rumor.
Not one announcement.
Architecture.

THE XRP STORY IS BECOMING MUCH BIGGER

“Ladies & Gentlemen, Start Your Engines!”

See what is converging?

Not rumor.
Not one announcement.
Architecture.

For years, XRP was understood primarily through one job:

MOVE VALUE. FAST. GLOBALLY.

Now add four more: OWN. CUSTODY. COLLATERALIZE. PRODUCE.

1. XRP → CREDIT

Ripple President Monica Long has described institutional credit as a major XRP use case, with credit activity targeting 2027.

That changes the economic equation.

XRP isn’t limited to moving liquidity. It can become part of the infrastructure that secures liquidity.

Payments move capital.
Credit mobilizes capital.
Collateral secures credit.

2. XRP → REGULATED CUSTODY

Now Washington is building another piece.

The SEC has proposed “Adviser and Regulated Fund Custody Rules; Crypto Custody Rules” – 234 pages addressing custody within regulated financial structures.

Here’s the critical distinction: CUSTODY ≠ OWNERSHIP.

You can own an asset while an authorized institution safeguards it under defined contractual terms.

Think of the emerging model as: PRIVATE OWNERSHIP + REGULATED CUSTODY + PRODUCTIVE UTILITY.

3. XRP → PRODUCTIVE TREASURY ASSET

Now look at Evernorth.

Its strategy isn’t simply: BUY XRP. HOLD XRP. WAIT.

Its three stated pillars are:

1 ACCUMULATE XRP
2 INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION
3 DIVERSIFIED YIELD GENERATION

The objective is to increase XRP per share and expand XRP’s utility.

That’s important.

The model isn’t merely own the asset.

It’s: OWN IT → SAFEGUARD IT → DEPLOY IT → PRODUCE WITH IT

4. NOW CONNECT THE ENGINE

This is where the architecture becomes easy to see:

OWNERSHIP → Who owns it?
CUSTODY → Who safeguards it?
PAYMENTS → How does value move?
SETTLEMENT → When is payment final?
CREDIT → How does capital get mobilized?
COLLATERAL → What secures that credit?
YIELD → How can productive deployment generate return?

These aren’t competing functions.

They are parts of the same financial engine.

And that changes the XRP question.

Stop asking only: “How many XRP does a payment use?”

Start asking: “How much XRP must be owned, accumulated, safeguarded and productively deployed to operate a global 24/7 financial system?”

That’s a fundamentally different supply-and-demand question.

An XRP briefly passing through a transaction performs one job.

An XRP held in custody, committed as collateral, deployed into authorized lending or otherwise put to productive use can perform another.

AND THE INDIVIDUAL DOESN’T DISAPPEAR.

Neither does private ownership.

Individuals can own XRP directly or through appropriate legal structures while institutional custodians safeguard assets and contractual arrangements define whether – and how – those assets can be productively deployed.

The terms matter.
The contract matters.
Ownership matters.

Custody itself doesn’t create yield.

Productive deployment does.

And the governing agreement determines who receives the economic benefit.

Now ZOOM out:

PRIVATE OWNERSHIP
↓
REGULATED CUSTODY
↓
PRODUCTIVE DEPLOYMENT
↓
CREDIT
↓
COLLATERAL
↓
GLOBAL SETTLEMENT
↓
MONETARY INFRASTRUCTURE

The timing deserves attention.

Evernorth is explicitly pursuing XRP accumulation, international expansion and diversified yield generation while the federal government is simultaneously developing proposed crypto-custody rules and Ripple is advancing institutional credit infrastructure.

OWNERSHIP → CUSTODY → PRODUCTIVITY → CREDIT → COLLATERAL → SETTLEMENT.

XRP originally answered: “How can value move?”

The next chapter asks a much bigger question: “How can value WORK?”

OWN IT
SAFEGUARD IT
PUT IT TO WORK
MOVE VALUE
SECURE VALUE
CREATE VALUE

XRP is becoming much more than a story about moving money.

It’s a story about the infrastructure underneath ownership, liquidity, credit, collateral and global capital itself.

Source(s):
• https://x.com/KuwlShow/status/2107563437895139780

https://dinarchronicles.com/2026/10/06/rob-cunningham-the-xrp-story-is-becoming-much-bigger/

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China’s New Gold System Takes Aim at the Dollar

China’s New Gold System Takes Aim at the Dollar

Taylor Kenny:  10-7-2026

China is buying gold, reducing its reliance on U.S. debt, and expanding systems that could bypass the dollar. If this trend continues, the impact on inflation, retirement savings, and purchasing power could be enormous.

In a recent analysis by ITM Trading, financial experts explore how China’s persistent gold accumulation, massive infrastructure investments, and deliberate moves away from the U.S. dollar point toward preparation for a brand-new global monetary order.

China’s New Gold System Takes Aim at the Dollar

Taylor Kenny:  10-7-2026

China is buying gold, reducing its reliance on U.S. debt, and expanding systems that could bypass the dollar. If this trend continues, the impact on inflation, retirement savings, and purchasing power could be enormous.

In a recent analysis by ITM Trading, financial experts explore how China’s persistent gold accumulation, massive infrastructure investments, and deliberate moves away from the U.S. dollar point toward preparation for a brand-new global monetary order.

 Rather than relying on traditional fiat currency systems, this emerging paradigm appears to be centered squarely on physical gold. Understanding these macroeconomic changes is essential for anyone looking to comprehend the future of international trade and secure their long-term financial wellbeing.

To fully grasp the significance of current events, it helps to look back at how historical shifts in monetary power typically occur. Major transitions are often driven by profound geopolitical and economic evolutions, much like the post-World War II Bretton Woods agreement.

During that pivotal era, the U.S. dollar emerged as the undisputed world reserve currency, originally backed by a fixed standard of gold. Today, however, the financial heavyweights of the East are charting a very different course. Instead of upholding the traditional Western-led framework, China is actively amassing massive reserves of physical precious metals, establishing a prominent gold exchange in Shanghai, and encouraging international trade partners to settle transactions in local currencies and gold rather than the greenback.

This multi-layered strategy involves creating a robust, physical gold-backed monetary ecosystem, complete with strategic settlement vaults located in key regions such as Saudi Arabia. Such developments directly challenge the long-standing dominance of the petrodollar and pose a serious question regarding the future reserve status of the U.S. dollar.

As more sovereign nations seek to diversify their financial reserves and move away from absolute dollar dependence, underlying risks related to U.S. national debt and domestic inflation begin to compound. Over time, these pressures could potentially degrade the purchasing power of dollar-denominated assets, making traditional savings methods increasingly vulnerable to macroeconomic instability.

Financial analysts consistently warn that as global trade dynamics evolve, the U.S. may resort to increased monetary expansion to manage its fiscal obligations, thereby exacerbating inflationary pressures. In light of these unfolding trends, holding tangible assets like physical gold is frequently highlighted as a vital safeguard against currency debasement and systemic financial volatility.

Diversifying a portfolio with precious metals allows individuals to protect their purchasing power independently of any single government’s monetary policy or banking infrastructure.

Ultimately, the transition from a purely dollar-centered global economy to a more diversified, gold-influenced financial system is expected to be gradual yet fundamentally inevitable. This monumental shift carries serious implications for international currency values, geopolitical alliances, and individual wealth preservation strategies.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 China Is Preparing for a Post-Dollar World

01:26 How Bretton Woods Made the Dollar King

03:45 Shanghai Challenges the Western Gold Market

05:10 China’s Gold Settlement Strategy for Global Trade

06:37 How Gold Could Bypass the Dollar

07:07 The Inflation Risk Facing the U.S.

08:04 Why Central Banks Want Physical Gold

10:02 What Dollar Devaluation Could Mean for Retirement

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXg6H4Qi5mc

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Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Wednesday Afternoon 10-7-26

Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps,

GLOBAL DEBT RESET WATCH: IMF WARNS OF ENERGY AND DEBT SHOCK AS FED SIGNALS MORE RATE HIKES

The IMF is warning that energy costs and record public debt are threatening global growth just as new Fed minutes point toward another U.S. rate increase this year.

Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps,

GLOBAL DEBT RESET WATCH: IMF WARNS OF ENERGY AND DEBT SHOCK AS FED SIGNALS MORE RATE HIKES

The IMF is warning that energy costs and record public debt are threatening global growth just as new Fed minutes point toward another U.S. rate increase this year.

 OVERVIEW

  • IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that high energy prices, record public debt and risks from the AI investment boom are threatening global growth.

  • New Federal Reserve minutes show that most officials expect another rate hike this year as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

  • Rising oil prices and government borrowing costs are creating a difficult combination: slower growth, persistent inflation and more expensive debt.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. IMF Warns the Energy Shock Could Last

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned Wednesday that the global economy is being squeezed by a combination of high energy prices, elevated inflation and record public debt.

Brent crude remains around $100 per barrel, while disruptions to energy and LNG shipping are keeping pressure on fuel and transportation costs.

Georgieva warned that even if the conflict in the Gulf ends soon, the effects of higher energy prices could persist. The IMF's previous global growth outlook assumed that the Strait of Hormuz would gradually return toward normal conditions, making continued disruption a significant risk to that forecast.

2. Fed Minutes Signal Another Rate Hike

The afternoon release of the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes added a new layer to the story.

The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, its first increase in three years. The minutes show that officials generally believed inflation remained too high and that a higher policy rate could be necessary to bring inflation back toward the central bank's 2% target.

Most officials' projections pointed toward another rate increase before the end of the year, although policymakers remain divided over how quickly additional tightening should occur.

This means the world's largest economy may be moving toward higher borrowing costs at the same time that energy prices are pushing inflation higher.

3. Record Debt Makes Higher Rates More Dangerous

The IMF says global public debt is at its highest level since World War II and is projected to exceed 100% of global GDP before 2030.

That creates a difficult environment for governments.

Higher interest rates may be necessary to contain inflation, but higher rates also increase the cost of servicing existing government debt. At the same time, higher energy costs can weaken economic growth and increase inflation.

The IMF is therefore calling for credible medium-term fiscal plans, particularly among heavily indebted advanced economies.

WHY IT MATTERS

Today's developments show how several major financial pressures are beginning to reinforce one another.

Energy prices are pushing inflation higher. Inflation is keeping interest rates higher. Higher rates increase debt-service costs. And high debt can make slower economic growth even more difficult to manage.

That combination is one of the biggest challenges facing the international financial system.

The IMF's warning is particularly important because it comes ahead of next week's IMF and World Bank meetings, where finance ministers and central bankers from 191 member countries will discuss global economic and financial stability.

WHY IT MATTERS TO FOREIGN CURRENCY HOLDERS

For foreign currency holders watching the Global Financial Reset, today's developments are a reminder that currency values are closely connected to the larger financial system.

Countries facing higher debt costs, expensive energy imports and weaker growth may need to adjust monetary, fiscal and trade policies.

That does not mean an overnight currency revaluation is guaranteed or that a specific reset date is approaching.

It does mean the financial pressures that could eventually encourage changes in international payment systems, reserves, trade relationships and currency strategies are becoming increasingly visible.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GLOBAL RESET

  • Pillar 1: Debt

Record public debt combined with higher interest rates increases the cost of maintaining existing obligations. Governments may face growing pressure to reform spending, taxation and debt-management policies.

  • Pillar 2: Energy

Oil around $100 per barrel creates inflationary pressure throughout the global economy. Energy-importing nations face additional pressure on trade balances and currencies.

  • Pillar 3: Currencies

When interest rates remain high and global investors shift capital toward higher-yielding assets, emerging-market currencies can come under pressure.

At the same time, countries may have greater incentives to diversify reserves, strengthen domestic financial markets and develop alternative settlement arrangements.

  • Pillar 4: Technology

The IMF also highlighted the enormous scale of the AI investment boom. AI could increase productivity and global growth, but a sharp reversal in investment or excessive valuations could create another source of financial instability.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The most important development this afternoon is that the IMF's warning about energy and debt now intersects with the Federal Reserve's signal that higher interest rates may be needed again this year.

The combination of expensive energy, rising debt-service costs, persistent inflation and tighter monetary policy creates a difficult environment for governments and central banks around the world.

For those following the Global Financial Reset, this is the kind of structural pressure worth watching—not because it guarantees an overnight reset, but because it can force countries to rethink how money, debt, trade and reserves function.

The global financial system evolves when mounting pressure makes the old ways of managing money and debt increasingly difficult to sustain.

Seeds of Wisdom Team

Newshounds News

SOURCES

  1. Reuters — “IMF chief warns energy shock, growing debt and AI risks threaten global growth”

  2. Associated Press — “Fed minutes: Another rate hike likely coming this year to combat persistent inflation”

~~~~~~~~~~

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Ariel: Why you Should be Excited about this

Ariel:  Why you Should be Excited about this

10-7-2026

Why You Should Be Excited About This

Eighty-five billion in foreign currency reserves is the war chest that makes a revaluation defensible instead of speculativewhen the CBI moves the rate, those reserves are the guarantee that the new value holds against any market pressure or speculative attack.

Ariel:  Why you Should be Excited about this

10-7-2026

Why You Should Be Excited About This

Eighty-five billion in foreign currency reserves is the war chest that makes a revaluation defensible instead of speculativewhen the CBI moves the rate, those reserves are the guarantee that the new value holds against any market pressure or speculative attack.

Based on the full stack the $85B reserves (28th globally, 3rd in the Arab world per IMF data through mid-2025/Q2 2026), forward oil contracts, gold positioning, non-oil revenue projections, and the measured appreciation posture Washington expects the defensible rate Iraq can post on the Forex this year is 3.85 dinars per dollar.

From Another Source Who Will Remain Anonymous

Why That Particular Rate?

1. $85B against Iraq’s money supply gives real room, but a measured first move preserves the buffer. At 3.85, the Central Bank cuts the gap by roughly two-thirds from 1,310 without burning reserves defending an aggressive peg against speculative attack on day one.

2. Oil sold forward at 2027 delivery locks in dollar inflows that can be priced against a stronger dinar. But those contracts settle over time they support a trajectory, not a cliff jump. 3.85 is the rate those inflows can defend now.

3. Safaa Al-Jabri’s $110B+ projected 2027 sovereign revenue includes customs, taxes, and fees but those collection systems are still being digitized and enforced. Until that revenue is actually captured rather than projected, it argues for a conservative first posting.

4. The U.S. side prefers phased appreciation a strong enough move to kill the parallel market and Iran’s arbitrage channel, but not so violent it destabilizes regional trade or triggers panic liquidation of dinar-denominated debt. 3.85 sits in that corridor: dramatic enough to be historic, stable enough to hold.

Now Please Keep In Mind

Redenomination & Revaluation-

The Important Sequencing Note:

Iraq can do both simultaneously or in phases. Delete the zeros for cash-handling sanity (1.31 becomes the nominal face), then let the rate appreciate against that face or move the rate first. Either path, the wealth event lives entirely in the revaluation leg, not the zero deletion. Anyone telling you the zeros ARE the event is selling theater.

Important Justification:

Iraq’s Treasury is not wiring dollars to Chase and Wells Fargo when you exchange. The mechanics:

• You exchange at a U.S. bank. The bank credits you dollars and takes custody of the dinar.

• The bank offloads the dinar into the secondary market — to the U.S. Treasury’s held positions, to market makers, or back into forex liquidity pools where dinar now trades as an internationally recognized currency.

• Iraq settles against its own currency obligations over time through the CBI’s reserve position and oil-for-dinar mechanics not as a lump-sum payout.

I needed to make this clear for those who will attempt to use those reserves as an excuse as to why it is so impossible for Iraq to go back to 3.22 or 4.00. We are getting paid in secondary markets. We will not be draining Iraq’s reserves or economy.

This is precisely why the reserve figure matters so much: the $85B isn’t a payout fund, it’s the credibility backstop that lets the secondary market absorb redemptions at the new rate without Iraq’s books imploding. The reserves guarantee the currency’s floor; the market handles the flow.

Source(s):
• https://x.com/Prolotario1/status/2107584877633654938

https://dinarchronicles.com/2026/10/06/prolotario-why-you-should-be-excited-about-this/

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Reset Intelligence: Devalue, Delete, Revalue

Emailed to Recaps~ Thank you David

Reset Intelligence: Devalue, Delete, Revalue

By Reset Intelligence | @EXIT_FIAT

For about a week one theory has circulated in the dinar community: Iraq lowers the IQD first, deletes the zeros, and only then raises the rate.

This morning the first step happened. Iraq's Council of Ministers approved a new rate and the Central Bank adopted it: 1,500 IQD to the dollar buying from the Finance Ministry, 1,510 selling to the banks and 1,520 selling to the public.

Emailed to Recaps~ Thank you David

Reset Intelligence: Devalue, Delete, Revalue

By Reset Intelligence | @EXIT_FIAT

For about a week one theory has circulated in the dinar community: Iraq lowers the IQD first, deletes the zeros, and only then raises the rate.

This morning the first step happened. Iraq's Council of Ministers approved a new rate and the Central Bank adopted it: 1,500 IQD to the dollar buying from the Finance Ministry, 1,510 selling to the banks and 1,520 selling to the public.

One statement

Safaa al-Jabiri sits on parliament's economy committee. Late on Monday he said: "There is a proposal from the finance minister to adjust the official exchange rate to 150,000 dinars for every $100, but there is no final decision so far." By the next day it was a decision. In the same statement he said that changing Iraq's currency, and possibly deleting the zeros, is under serious discussion inside the Prime Minister's office and the Central Bank.

Everything else that moved

  • The budget - after parliament's Finance Committee met Finance Minister Faleh al-Sari, the draft's figures came out: 217 trillion IQD in spending, a 50 trillion deficit, oil at $58 a barrel and 1,500 IQD to the dollar. A committee member said the rate "is subject to change." The cabinet approved it the same day.

  • The oil line - an Iraqi oil expert called the budget's 4 million barrels a day of exports "impossible" while the Strait of Hormuz is shut.

  • The law - the Central Bank's governor said in September that new banknotes fall under the bank's own authority, while deleting zeros needs a law passed by parliament.

  • The street - the dollar closed Tuesday above 163,000 IQD per $100 in Baghdad, before the decision. The bank's price to the banks moves from 131,000 to 151,000.

  • The weapons - Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi told tribal sheikhs that 5 armed factions have agreed to hand over their weapons and 3 already have.

  • Tehran - Trump said "nobody knows" who is running Iran. A tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz and Oman evacuated 10 of its crew.

The question

Is the step down the first move of a bigger plan, or only a finance ministry short of cash? Nothing in the decision mentions the zeros or a higher rate to follow.

That is the short version. Why a government would lower its currency before changing it, what would have to follow, and how to tell the two stories apart - that is the daily read.

Read the full daily briefing free for 5 days. Sign up here: the daily Iraqi dinar briefing

Want it straight from the horse's mouth? The CBI Rate Alert pings you the moment the Central Bank of Iraq moves the official rate. The number itself, not a rumour about it. It comes with our free resource library and the daily breakdown of what is actually moving in Iraq. Sign up free: The CBI Rate Alert

Got a dinar question? Reset Intelligence runs an on-call research assistant: ask it anything they have published. It answers in seconds and will conduct deep research to find you the answer. Try it: the Iraqi dinar research assistant

Common questions, answered straight: When will the Iraqi dinar revalue? and Is the Iraqi dinar revaluation real?

The design behind all of it is mapped in Head of the Snake, and the free guides live in the Iraqi dinar resource library.

Follow the daily intel free: Telegram · Facebook · Spotify · Odysee

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News, Rumors and Opinions Wednesday 10-7-2026

Ariel:  Cabinet Seating as Structural Trigger for the Iraqi Currency Reset

19-7-2026

The Connection Between The Cabinet Seating & The Currency Reset:

Cabinet Seating as Structural Trigger for the Iraqi Currency Reset — Full Mechanics, Sequencing, and Skeptic Dismantlement

THE CORE MECHANISM: WHY A PARTIAL GOVERNMENT CANNOT PULL THIS TRIGGER

Strip away the noise and the connection is mechanical, not mystical.

Ariel:  Cabinet Seating as Structural Trigger for the Iraqi Currency Reset

19-7-2026

The Connection Between The Cabinet Seating & The Currency Reset:

Cabinet Seating as Structural Trigger for the Iraqi Currency Reset — Full Mechanics, Sequencing, and Skeptic Dismantlement

THE CORE MECHANISM: WHY A PARTIAL GOVERNMENT CANNOT PULL THIS TRIGGER

Strip away the noise and the connection is mechanical, not mystical.

A currency reset of this magnitude official rate adjustment to 1,500, redenomination, zero removal, new note issuance, international settlement rail integration requires three signatures moving as one body: the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Planning, and the Central Bank of Iraq.

Finance writes the rate into the budget.

Planning certifies every project funding line at the new denomination.

The CBI executes the rate event itself.

If daylight exists between those three signatures even hours of daylight arbitrageurs exploit the seam and the entire event bleeds credibility before it draws first breath.

A caretaker cabinet cannot produce those three signatures with binding authority. Caretaker ministers hold seats; they do not hold mandate. Anything they sign is contestable domestically by successor ministers, internationally by counterparties who will not accept a lame-duck signature on sovereign financial instruments.

The US Treasury compliance pathways, the SEC and CFTC regulatory alignments for the tokenized settlement rails no external counterparty inks those agreements with a government that might not exist in its current form next month. One contested signature and the whole reset gets dragged into international arbitration, where it dies of exposure.

The cabinet seating is the moment every signature becomes unimpeachable. That is the connection. Full stop.

The pens are already on the table in Baghdad. The ministers file toward the oath one by one, and somewhere in the CBI’s vaults, shrink-wrapped pallets of new notes wait under fluorescent light for a signature that is now only days of ceremony away.

When the ninth minister’s hand comes down, the sequence starts and nothing in the old delay playbook can stop a machine whose missing part has finally been bolted into place.

Read Full Article:
https://www.patreon.com/Prolotario1/posts/connection-reset-171617380

https://dinarchronicles.com/2026/10/06/prolotario-cabinet-seating-as-structural-trigger-for-the-iraqi-currency-reset/

************

Courtesy of Dinar Guru:  https://www.dinarguru.com/

MarkZ  [via PDK]  ...some are panicking while others are getting excited...if things play out the way things are shaping up…the way communications say happened last weekend…this will be a big week of structure behind bonds, historic assets etc. and a big weekend with notices for us next weekend…IF it all works out...so we have to watch things play out.

Ariel  Dinar holders aren’t holding paper, they’re holding a claim ticket on the first sovereign currency revaluation of the post-fiat era, and the window between “everything lined up” and “public announcement” is measured in days, for Iraq’s cabinet completion. Not weeks.

Jeff   We could have two golden nuggets later this week.  If they are going to come forward this week, the two golden nuggets will bring you 100% confirmation the rate is about to change... Later this week they could give us the date that they're going to send the '27 budget to parliament along with they could give us the parliamentary date that they're going to vote on the cabinet.

US Debt Crisis Is Entering A Dangerous New Phase | Dr. Mark Thornton

Liberty and Finance:  10-6-2026

Dr. Mark Thornton warns that surging long-term interest rates could expose deep vulnerabilities across the US financial system. He argues that government intervention is failing to stop rising rates while America’s enormous debt burden continues to grow. Thornton also warns that the AI boom may represent another technology-driven bubble fueled by years of artificially low interest rates and excessive investment.

He says declining confidence in the US dollar and the erosion of dollar dominance could ultimately put America on the road to hyperinflation.

Thornton explains why gold, silver, financial independence, and broader personal preparedness could become increasingly important as these risks intensify.

INTERVIEW TIMELINE:

0:00 Intro

1:20 Government manipulation

13:00 Bond market crisis

18:55 AI bubble

29:20 Hyperinflation

35:20 US hegemony

40:30 Mises Institute

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrvltKWAFL4

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Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Wednesday Morning 10-7-26

Iraq’s 2027 Budget Draft Sets 217T Dinar Spending

2026-10-06 / 05:08   Shafaq News- Baghdad   Iraq’s draft 2027 federal budget totals 217 trillion dinars ($164.9B), with a projected deficit of 50 trillion dinars ($38B), parliamentary Finance Committee member Abbas Hayal told Shafaq News on Tuesday.  

Iraq’s 2027 Budget Draft Sets 217T Dinar Spending

2026-10-06 / 05:08   Shafaq News- Baghdad   Iraq’s draft 2027 federal budget totals 217 trillion dinars ($164.9B), with a projected deficit of 50 trillion dinars ($38B), parliamentary Finance Committee member Abbas Hayal told Shafaq News on Tuesday.  

Hayal said the figures were discussed during the committee’s meeting with Finance Minister Faleh Al-Sari on the draft budget, which sets oil at $58 per barrel, assumes exports of four million barrels per day, and sets the exchange rate at 1,500 dinars per US dollar.

The proposal also provides for moving contract and daily-wage workers onto permanent payrolls and creating 100,000 contract positions, half of them allocated to ministries and security institutions.  

The 100,000 contract positions are expected to be distributed among Iraq’s provinces according to population, with many earmarked for graduates from earlier cohorts who have remained without public-sector employment.  

In a statement, the Finance Committee said the meeting also addressed the distribution of spending between line-item and program- and performance-based budgeting, alongside efforts to diversify state revenues, reduce reliance on oil and contain the deficit.

The meeting followed criticism from the Finance Committee that the Finance Ministry had prepared and advanced the draft without sufficient consultation with parliament.  

In September, Iraq’s Ministerial Council for the Economy approved the draft 2027 federal budget and referred it to the Council of Ministers. Under Iraq’s Finance Administration Law, the draft is due to be submitted to parliament by October 15.  

Iraq had adopted a three-year budget covering 2023–2025 under former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, but parliament did not approve the 2025 spending schedules before the fiscal year ended, and no federal budget law was passed for 2026.  

Read more: $45B deficit looms over Iraq’s draft 2027 budget  

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-s-2027-budget-draft-sets-217T-dinar-spending

"Is The Government Paying For The Deficit From The Citizen's Pocket?"... Ziad Al-Hashemi: Devaluing The Dinar Postpones Reform And Does Not Address Inflation And Waste

Baghdad - One News - 10/06/2026   Economic expert Ziad Al-Hashemi warned of the repercussions of resorting to changing the exchange rate of the dinar as one of the options for dealing with the financial pressures reflected in the 2027 draft budget, considering that reducing the value of the currency, if adopted, would burden citizens with part of the cost of the financial imbalances instead of addressing their root causes.  

Al-Hashemi said in a post published on his account on the “X” platform that the details of the proposed budget and the accompanying talk about the exchange rate indicate, according to his reading, that the government is facing an “uncomfortable” financial situation, given the continued high levels of spending and waste compared to fluctuating revenues.  

He added that relying on oil revenues and continuing to borrow is no longer sufficient to cover the large and increasing public spending, considering that resorting to changing the exchange rate, if approved, would be an option to “buy time” and delay financial reform, which requires stricter measures to address the structure of spending and waste.  

Al-Hashemi believed that reducing the value of the dinar was the easiest option compared to financial reform measures, but it shifts part of the cost of the crisis to the public, instead of addressing the causes of the imbalance in public finance management.  

Regarding the employment file, he pointed out that the talk about providing 150,000 new jobs within the proposed budget, if true, means adding new burdens to the payroll and increasing what he described as the “job overabundance” in state institutions.

He considered that expanding employment could be acceptable if actual employees replaced “ghost employees” after auditing this file, which, according to his vision, would allow for reducing waste and corruption and providing real job opportunities without an unjustified increase in the cost of salaries.  

Al-Hashemi criticized what he described as the continued mistakes of previous budgets and governments, including inflated current spending, continued waste, weak investment spending, and the absence of maximizing the "product" of non-oil revenues, along with "limited implementation of the 'program and performance plan' ".  

He concluded that addressing the financial pressures requires reform that goes beyond changing the exchange rate or continuing to borrow, towards restructuring spending, reducing waste, and boosting non-oil revenues, instead of burdening citizens with part of the cost of the financial imbalance.   https://1news-iq.net/هل-تدفع-الحكومة-ثمن-العجز-من-جيب-الموا/

Economic Warning Regarding Mps' Statements: They Will Increase Market And Dollar Instability In Iraq

Shafaq News - Baghdad   Economic expert Abdul Rahman Al-Mashhadani predicted on Tuesday that the exchange rate of the dollar in the parallel market may exceed the 160,000 dinar mark per 100 dollars, given the continued high demand for foreign currency and conflicting statements regarding monetary policy and the exchange rate.

Al-Mashhadani explained in an interview with Shafaq News Agency that it is not surprising that the dollar exceeded the 160,000 mark, at a time when a member of the Finance Committee is stating that the exchange rate is fixed at 150,000 dinars, while another member is talking about changing the currency, and another about removing zeros, which are files that are not within the jurisdiction of the members of parliament.

He added that continuing such statements does not serve market stability, but rather increases uncertainty among citizens and those dealing in dollars, noting that the market is quickly affected by any talk related to the exchange rate or currency.

Al-Mashhadani continued, saying that the demand for the dollar remains high, especially from travelers and traders who do not want to import through the ASYCUDA system, which keeps the demand for foreign currency in place and puts additional pressure on the exchange rate in the parallel market.  

https://www.shafaq.com/ar/اقتصـاد/تحذير-اقتصادي-من-تصريحات-النواب-تزيد-اضطراب-السوق-والدولار-في-العراق

MP: Restoring Autonomy Opens The Door To Demands For Compensation From Washington

Information/Special...MP Ahmed al-Moussawi affirmed on Tuesday that Iraq's full restoration of its economic, security, and political autonomy will pave the way for demanding reparations from the United States for the war, occupation, and the resulting damage inflicted on the country.

Speaking to Al-Maalouma, al-Moussawi stated, “Iraq’s restoration of its economic, security, and political autonomy will allow it to raise the issue of demanding reparations from the United States for the aggression against and occupation of Iraq,” clarifying that “this issue is contingent upon possessing an independent national decision.”

He added that "the war waged by Washington against Iraq resulted in the death and injury of thousands of Iraqis, in addition to the damage inflicted on infrastructure, the destruction of numerous state institutions and facilities, and the theft of a number of Iraqi properties and assets."

Al-Moussawi indicated that "making an official decision to demand reparations from Washington will not be easy," noting that "the matter requires a national decision and political courage from all political forces."
He pointed out that "the differing positions of the political forces, whether Sunni, Kurdish, or Christian, compared to the positions of the Shiite blocs regarding this issue may hinder progress in demanding compensation," stressing that "resolving it requires broad national consensus and a clear sovereign decision." (End of quote 25)

https://almaalomah-me.translate.goog/news/146311/politics/نائب:-استعادة-السيادة-تفتح-باب-المطالبة-بتعويضات-من-واشنطن?_x_tr_sl=ar&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

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Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Wednesday Morning 10-7-26

Good Morning Dinar Recaps,

INDIA RESET WATCH: RBI HIKES RATES AS RUPEE NEARS RECORD LOW

India’s central bank has begun tightening policy again, but the rupee’s continued weakness shows how powerful global energy, capital-flow and dollar pressures have become.

Good Morning Dinar Recaps,

INDIA RESET WATCH: RBI HIKES RATES AS RUPEE NEARS RECORD LOW

India’s central bank has begun tightening policy again, but the rupee’s continued weakness shows how powerful global energy, capital-flow and dollar pressures have become.

 OVERVIEW

  • The Reserve Bank of India raised its benchmark repo rate 25 basis points to 5.5%, the first increase in nearly four years.

  • The rupee nevertheless fell near its record low, reaching 96.8450 per U.S. dollar before closing around 96.78.

  • The move highlights a larger global financial challenge: higher interest rates alone may not be enough to protect currencies when energy costs, capital flows and global bond yields are working in the opposite direction.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. RBI Raises Rates for the First Time Since 2023

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unanimously raised its policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%, marking its first rate increase in nearly four years.

The central bank also changed its policy stance from “neutral” to “calibrated tightening,” signaling that additional increases remain possible if inflation pressures continue.

India’s consumer inflation rose to 4.82% in August, above the RBI’s 4% medium-term target for a third consecutive month. At the same time, the economy remains strong, with April-June GDP growth reaching 7.8%.

The combination gives the RBI more room to tighten policy while attempting to contain inflation.

2. The Rupee Falls Despite the Rate Hike

The surprising part of the announcement came from the currency market.

Rather than strengthening significantly after the rate increase, the rupee fell to 96.8450 per dollar, only a fraction away from its record low of 96.96 reached in May.

The currency ultimately closed about 0.4% lower at 96.7750, demonstrating that investors were looking beyond the RBI’s decision and focusing on broader pressures affecting the currency.

Those pressures include foreign portfolio outflows, elevated oil prices, rising global bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar.

3. India Is Facing a Global Currency Problem, Not Just a Domestic One

The RBI’s decision illustrates an important distinction in today's financial system: a central bank can raise interest rates and still struggle to support its currency.

India is heavily dependent on imported energy, making higher oil prices particularly important. When energy costs rise, India must spend more on imports, putting additional pressure on its external accounts and currency.

At the same time, higher U.S. Treasury yields can make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to international investors, encouraging capital to move away from emerging markets.

The result is a difficult policy balancing act—India must fight inflation without placing excessive pressure on economic growth while also trying to stabilize its currency.

WHY IT MATTERS

India is one of the world's major emerging economies, and its currency pressures provide a window into the larger stresses developing across global finance.

The rupee's weakness shows that currency values are increasingly being influenced by forces that cross national borders—energy prices, international capital flows, interest-rate differentials, geopolitical risk and global bond markets.

This is important for the emerging global financial system because countries are becoming increasingly sensitive to financial conditions created outside their own borders.

WHY IT MATTERS TO FOREIGN CURRENCY HOLDERS

For foreign currency holders following the Global Financial Reset, India's experience offers an important lesson: currency stability is built on economic fundamentals, trade strength, monetary policy and international confidence—not simply on a central-bank announcement.

A weaker rupee does not mean a currency revaluation is imminent, nor does it prove that a global reset is occurring on a particular timetable.

What it does demonstrate is that countries are actively adjusting monetary policy and financial strategies as the existing international system comes under pressure from inflation, energy costs, debt and shifting capital flows.

That is the kind of structural change worth watching.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GLOBAL RESET

  • Pillar 1: Debt

Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for households, businesses and governments. If more countries move toward tighter monetary policy, the cost of servicing existing debt can become an increasingly important issue.

  • Pillar 2: Trade

India's dependence on imported energy demonstrates how closely currency values are tied to global trade. A sustained increase in oil prices can weaken the currencies of major energy importers while strengthening the importance of energy-producing nations.

  • Pillar 3: Currency

The rupee's decline despite a rate hike demonstrates that currency strength depends on more than interest rates. Capital flows, trade balances, energy costs and confidence in the broader economy all play a role.

  • Pillar 4: Global Financial Architecture

As emerging economies manage greater currency and capital-flow pressures, they have stronger incentives to diversify trade relationships, strengthen domestic financial systems and develop alternative payment and settlement arrangements.

That does not mean the existing dollar-based system disappears overnight. It means the international financial architecture continues to evolve.

THE BOTTOM LINE

India's rate hike is significant because it shows the RBI responding to renewed inflation and currency pressure after years of monetary easing.

But the rupee's immediate decline toward a record low is even more revealing. It demonstrates that one country's monetary policy cannot completely shield its currency from global energy prices, capital movements, bond yields and dollar strength.

For those watching the Global Financial Reset, the important development is not a promise of an overnight currency transformation. It is the continuing restructuring of the economic conditions that determine how currencies function and how nations manage their place in global finance.

The global financial system is not being rebuilt in one dramatic moment—it is evolving through the pressure points where currencies, trade, debt and monetary policy meet.

Seeds of Wisdom Team

Newshounds News

SOURCES

  1. Reuters — “Rupee nears record low despite RBI hike, governor says markets can be irrational”

  2. Financial Times — “India raises interest rates for first time in 3 years”

~~~~~~~~~~

  A Message to Our Currency Holders🌱

If you’ve been holding foreign currency for many years, you were not foolish.
You were not wrong to believe the global financial system would change.

What failed was not your patience — it was the information you were given.


For years, dates, rumors, and personalities replaced facts, structure, and proof. “This week” predictions created cycles of hope and disappointment that were never based on how currencies actually change.

That is not your failure.

Our mission here is different:   • No dates • No rates • No hype • No gurus

Instead, we focus on:
• Verifiable developments • Institutional evidence
• Global financial structure • Where countries actually sit in the process

Currency value changes only come after sovereignty, trade, banking, settlement systems, and fiscal coordination are in place. History and institutions confirm this sequence.

You will see silence. You will see denials. That is not delay — that is discipline.

Protect your identity. Organize your documents.    Verify everything.
Never hand your discernment to anyone who cannot show proof.

You deserve truth — not timelines.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News

~~~~~~~~~~

Seeds of Wisdom Team RV Currency Facts Youtube and Rumble

Newshound's News Telegram Room Link

RV Facts with Proof Links Link

RV Updates Proof links - Facts Link

Start Here room with Most Asked Questions Link

Follow the Gold/Silver Rate COMEX

Follow Fast Facts

Seeds of Wisdom Team™ Website

Thank you Dinar Recaps

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How Wars And Geopolitical Conflicts Can Affect Stock Market Performance:

How Wars And Geopolitical Conflicts Can Affect Stock Market Performance: What History Shows And How Investors Can Prepare For Volatility

Sep 29, 2026  Sergei Klebnikov Editorial Staff, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

Geopolitical conflicts can drive short-term market volatility, but history shows the initial sell-off is often more about uncertainty than a lasting change in long-term returns.

The biggest risk to watch is whether the conflict disrupts critical supply chains in ways that spill into inflation, financial conditions, corporate earnings and broader economic growth – energy is one common channel, but not the only one.

How Wars And Geopolitical Conflicts Can Affect Stock Market Performance: What History Shows And How Investors Can Prepare For Volatility

Sep 29, 2026  Sergei Klebnikov Editorial Staff, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

Geopolitical conflicts can drive short-term market volatility, but history shows the initial sell-off is often more about uncertainty than a lasting change in long-term returns.

The biggest risk to watch is whether the conflict disrupts critical supply chains in ways that spill into inflation, financial conditions, corporate earnings and broader economic growth – energy is one common channel, but not the only one.

 What investors can do: Anchor decisions to your plan (time horizon and cash needs), stay diversified, rebalance with discipline and avoid headline-driven moves like panic selling.

When war dominates the headlines, it’s easy to assume stocks should fall in a straight line. But history suggests the first sell-off is often driven more by uncertainty than by a permanent shift in long-term returns – meaning markets can reprice risk quickly, sometimes before the story is fully clear.

In reality, market declines tied to geopolitics are often driven less by headlines themselves and more by what the event could mean for the economy: whether critical supply chains are disrupted, how that pressure feeds into inflation, and what it implies for interest rates, corporate earnings and overall growth.

When supply disruptions raise costs, the impact can show up not only in company margins but also in household purchasing power and consumption, which ultimately matters for earnings.

Every conflict is different, outcomes are uncertain and markets can remain volatile as events unfold. A useful way to frame geopolitical risk is as a set of potential supply and demand shocks – for example, disruptions to energy, shipping lanes, industrial inputs or technology chokepoints – and then to ask how those shocks transmit through inflation, financial conditions, earnings and growth.

History can be a useful anchor for decision-making – not for making predictions – and may help investors distinguish short-term noise from longer-term fundamentals.

Below, we’ll cover how markets have tended to react to wars and major geopolitical events; what usually drives sustained moves beyond the initial shock; and practical steps long-term investors can take to prepare for geopolitical risk without overreacting.

How wars can move the stock market (and why reactions may vary)

War and other geopolitical shocks tend to move markets through two forces: a sudden surge in uncertainty and the economic ripple effects that follow. That’s why the initial reaction can be sharp even if the longer-term impact ends up being more muted – or simply different – than the headlines imply.

In the initial shock phase, markets may respond to the unknowns. When outcomes are unclear, investors may quickly reassess the range of possible economic paths and reprice risk.

Volatility may jump and equities may sell off. In credit markets, that repricing can show up as investors demanding more compensation to hold riskier or more directly impacted debt. That can push credit spreads wider and effectively tighten financial conditions.

As more information emerges, markets often shift into a second phase: repricing based on what the conflict may mean for the economy and policy. Reactions can diverge depending on whether the situation threatens critical supply chains (energy is one example), disrupts production inputs, alters trade routes, or meaningfully affects major economies. Policy responses can also be pivotal, from sanctions and export controls to changes in fiscal spending.

Ultimately, sustained market moves are often driven less by the event itself than by whether it changes the macro path via inflation, interest rates, corporate earnings and economic growth.

Investors may want to focus on whether geopolitical developments are transmitting through the economy and markets – especially through critical supply chains and production, economic activity and demand, inflation expectations, financial conditions, and corporate profitability.

What history shows: Wars often trigger volatility more than lasting declines

History suggests geopolitical events like wars often cause short-lived volatility, and – barring a major economic disruption – the market impact tends to fade over time. In many cases, that looks like an initial, uncertainty-driven drawdown followed by stabilization or recovery as outcomes narrow and attention returns to fundamentals like earnings, inflation and policy.

Recent episodes suggest markets have been recovering from geopolitical flare-ups more quickly: After a nearly 10% drop in the S&P 500 at the outset of the Iran conflict earlier this year, the benchmark index recovered to pre-conflict levels in just 11 trading sessions. But the more durable takeaway for portfolios is that because the shock phase is dominated by uncertainty and shifting probabilities, market leadership can rotate as the situation evolves – reinforcing why portfolios are typically better built for a range of outcomes.

One reason geopolitical-related sell-offs may prove so short-lived is that markets are forward-looking. Prices adjust quickly to reflect new probabilities – sometimes within days – so once the “shock” is incorporated, further headlines may have less impact unless they change the economic outlook in a material way.

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