Monday Night KTFA CC "Green Light" and more 2-8-2021
KTFA:
Monday Night KTFA CC
Frank26: 2-8-21.....GREEN LIGHT
With Walkingstick, Delta, Petra and Militiaman
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What Frank’s suit color’s mean…. FRANKS SUIT COLORS FOR CC'S..... WHITE = NEW INFO…. SILVER = INTEL FROZEN…. RED= HIGH ALERT… PURPLE=GUEST WITH US…. BLUE = AIR FORCE…. BLACK = GROUND/FF’S…. GREEN= MR OR FAB 4 ... GOLD = CHANGE
Samson: Kurdish MP: All channels of understanding have been closed with Baghdad, and the budget may be passed by the majority
14:09 - 08/02/2021
Deputy for the Kurdistan Islamic Group, Salim Hamza, on Monday, described the negotiations with Baghdad that the budget is complex and unresolvable, indicating that the budget may be passed by the parliamentary majority.
Hamza said in a statement to "the information" that "the budget will pass by the political majority if things remain on it and because of the insistence of the forces in Baghdad to hand over all the exported oil."
Hamza added that "the negotiations with Baghdad on determining the proportion of the region and passing the budget reached a dead end because it is complicated and everyone is committed to his position."
He continued, "A legal exit will be added in the articles on the Kurdistan region, such as an addition. The parliament has the right to make the amendment or the government to articles 10 and 11 of the budget paragraphs that include Kurdistan." LINK
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Don961: Canceling the currency auction, reducing borrowing, and “isolating” the central bank’s reserves ... the most important thing for hard currency in the 2021 budget
2021-02-08 Yes Iraq: Baghdad
Today, Monday, the Parliamentary Finance Committee revealed a tendency to cancel the currency auction, while indicating that the Central Bank's reserves will not be affected in the general budget for 2021.
The committee's reporter, Ahmed Al-Saffar, said in statements to the official agency and its affiliate, Yass Iraq, that “when the draft budget is approved in the House of Representatives voting session, it becomes a binding law for the government and enforceable,” indicating that “the Ministry of Finance then issues instructions within a week or two to send to ministries to facilitate The budget execution process ”.
He added that "the budget deficit was reduced from 71 trillion to 24 trillion only, as the lending scheme deducted the treasury transfers to the central bank 47 trillion, but we reduced it to only two trillion, if the price of a barrel of oil remained at 45 dollars," noting that "the deficit will disappear soon." The government will have an abundance of money if the price of a barrel of oil remains high.
Al-Saffar stressed that "the Central Bank's reserves will not be affected at all in this budget, as we have reduced borrowing and canceled foreign loans."
The decision of the Finance Committee indicated that "there is a tendency to cancel the currency auction because it does not exist in all countries of the world except in Iraq," explaining that "the currency auction mechanism is incorrect, and hard currency is supposed to be given to actual importers, students, professors, and patients who travel outside the country and not to banks." “.
Al-Saffar indicated that "there is an increase in social care because large numbers of them were included, with the private sector participating in employing the unemployed," noting that "the budget carries a clear economic and social vision."
He stressed that "the committee will hold a meeting with the political blocs to bridge the gap in views and come up with the draft budget that can be passed easily under the parliament."
Regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, Saffar pointed out that "the exchange rate is exclusively within the authority of the Central Bank, and it is not possible to interfere in its work as it is responsible for the monetary system, the monetary mass, the exchange rate and the cash reserve. link
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Don961: The Iraqi economy suffers from a historical deficit in the 2021 budget, and Kurdistan is its most prominent problem
- 17 Hours Elapsed Researcher Shatha Khalil *
The Iraqi economy faces a number of challenges, starting from the significant decline in oil prices to geopolitical tensions and social unrest in the context of poor public services and the lack of progress in combating rampant corruption, which has produced poverty and unemployment for most of the people, and today it faces the repercussions of the dire Corona crisis.
A report by the Institute of International Finance says that last year, Iraq went through the worst rate of contraction since 2003, reaching 11.2%, and the country dealt with two double shocks represented by the drop in oil prices and the spread of the Corona virus, but despite this, the oil GDP is expected to grow 1.6% this year, the non-oil GDP will grow 3.1%.
The World Bank says that the Iraqi economy after the passage of nearly two decades
The country remains stuck in a fragile reality, facing increasing political instability, mounting social unrest, and an ever-deepening gap between state and citizen. And in the midst of a number of crises; Including falling oil prices, the Corona pandemic, and recent protests. This is in addition to the accumulation of the effects of weak economic policies, the absence of reforms, and the inability to address corruption.
Iraq has now seen its worst annual GDP growth performance during 2020, and instability, lack of job opportunities, corruption and poor service provision remain among the most important risks surrounding the country's long-term growth.
The factors of low prices and the spread of the epidemic, along with the ongoing political instability in the country, have led to an inflated Iraqi budget deficit to 15.6% of GDP in 2020, and a sharp decrease in its official reserves.
Budget Law and its Problems:
The budget bill for 2021, which was submitted by the Iraqi government to Parliament, contained a historical deficit, which sparked widespread debate about the ability of state resources to keep pace with this huge volume of expected expenditures.
With the change of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate against foreign currencies recently from 1190 dollars per dinar to 1450 dinars per dollar, and the figures in the budget are estimated in Iraqi dinars according to the new exchange rate, where the large gap between the size of expenditures and expected imports is noted.
And that the value of the expected deficit in the budget of Iraq for the year 2021 is more than 50 billion US dollars, and these figures formed a surprise within the financial and economic circles, as they come in a year that is supposed to witness great austerity, due to the decrease in oil revenues and the continuing negative effects of the Corona pandemic on the economy, and the absence Any prospect for prosperity.
The 2021 budget showed how Iraq is almost completely dependent on the proceeds from the sale of oil, as its project plans to sell 3.25 million barrels per day at a price of 42 dollars per barrel, to raise nearly 50 billion dollars within 12 months, this confirms the weakness of the economic policy followed in Iraq, which is based on randomness. And getting lost in decisions if there are decisions for reform.
In order to maximize non-oil imports, the state tended to include in the draft budget the imposition of taxes on the vital work sectors in the country, such as mobile phone companies, which have reached 20% of the sales tax of their packing cards, while every Iraqi who wants to travel to any other country will have to pay about $ 18, or $ 7 if he wants to travel internally.
The draft budget imposes a 10% tax on malls and large markets, as well as on car sales, while the tax rate on spirits and tobacco is 20%.
Only employees who receive less than about $ 300 per month have survived the deductions within the budget law for 2021, as the more the employee’s salary, the greater the monthly deduction.
It seems that the series of budget problems without modifications lead to inherited problems and without radical solutions.
A member of the Finance Committee in the House of Representatives Jamal Cougar said, "There are many observations on the country's general federal budget law for this year," indicating that the draft budget needs major amendments before it is approved.
And that "the task of the Finance Committee will be arduous, and the budget will witness changes in its chapters and paragraphs, so it will take time to complete these amendments," noting that "the budget came at a difficult time in light of attempts to thwart the government and a difficult economic circumstance, in addition to external interventions with attempts to stop the port project." FAO and claims to invest Iraqi gas and pressure to support and revitalize the local product.
Economists add, that the budget is not consistent with the Iraqi financial and economic reality, and contains problems that may cause major crises later if passed in this way.
"The FAO project", which is considered one of the strategic projects, was allocated only 400 billion dinars (about 273 million dollars), which represents 12% of the cost of constructing the port, while large sums were allocated to the ministries for maintenance and commodity requirements. And they see that “the budget ignores the real economic reality of the country, and is in violation of the Financial Management Law for the year 2019, which specifies the budget deficit of 3% of GDP, but the percentage of deficit in this budget of GDP is 24%.
The "proportion of the Kurdistan region" is one of the most prominent problems that are considered difficult issues and will be included in the political bidding section with an absence of balance and a fair distribution of financial resources between ministries, and the same is true for some Sunni provinces.
He explains that “the budgets of Nineveh, Salah al-Din and Anbar amount to 918 billion dinars (about 628 million dollars), and the number of its population is 6 million and 708 thousand, while the budget of another Sunni province, Diyala, is about one trillion dinars (about 684 million dollars) and its population is about one million and 548. alpha.
It is clear that there is misconduct and planning in some ministries, for example, the budget of the Ministry of Agriculture is 310 billion dinars (212 million dollars), while the Sunni endowment budget is 309 billion and the Shiite endowment is 830 billion dinars (about 568 million dollars), which is seven times the budget of the Ministry of Agriculture , While the overall size of the budget is exaggerated.
According to a member of the Finance Committee, the reform paper proposed by the Finance Committee was not observed, but rather it was limited to imposing taxes and deductions without reforms, and who indicated that “the budget law did not address administrative corruption, and was reduced to the issue of multiple salaries and border outlets without setting a time limit for the completion of This matter".
Specialists believe that the budget does not coincide with the economic downturn, low oil prices, the Corona crisis, and the successive crises suffered by the economy, and despite all the exceptional circumstances, the budget remains the second largest budget among Arab countries' budgets and is overwhelmed with expenditures.
The financing of the deficit, according to the budget, will be through internal and external borrowing and the issuance of national bonds, and this will plunge the country into debt and harm the Iraqi economy. They concluded that “the government deliberately sent the budget late to embarrass the parliament, as the value of the Iraqi state’s internal loans amounted to about 80 trillion Iraqi dinars ($ 67.7 billion), while foreign debts amounted to about $ 60 billion, more than half of which were debts recorded during the eighties The last century during the Iran-Iraq war.
The International Monetary Fund stated, that the wheel of economic recovery in Iraq is still going at a slow pace, and reconstruction projects are very limited, after the war has ended, while large current spending reinforces the risks that threaten the Iraqi economy, which puts public funds and central bank reserves on a path that does not Its continuity can be supported. The report, issued in 2019, stressed the importance of combating corruption in order to enhance the effectiveness of public institutions, and to support investment efforts and job creation on the part of the private sector.
In the financial sector, the Fund called on the Iraqi government to create a strong plan to restructure the large public sector banks, and the associated strengthening of banking supervision, which he said had become a necessity to ensure financial stability, and also called for strengthening financial development and inclusion, and setting stronger controls to combat Money laundering and terrorist financing, and strengthening oversight operations, which will help Iraq prevent abuse of the country's financial sector for the purposes of reaping criminal proceeds from money laundering and terrorist financing.
According to analysts, these deductions are a government attempt to force the simple Iraqi citizen to assume heavy responsibilities that he had no hand in the reasons for their existence.
In conclusion, Iraq needs more public investment to repair the infrastructure destroyed by the war and strengthen the provision of basic public services, including electricity.
Current spending needs to be redirected to health, reduce spending on wages and pensions, which account for 65% of total public spending, eliminate rampant corruption, a weak regulatory framework, and a bad business environment, as it continues to impede private sector development, job creation, and increased flows. Foreign direct investment, and the companies ’problem of obtaining credit, access to electricity and trade, and protecting their rights in a framework that encourages them to turn the wheel of investment.
Economic Studies Unit, Rawabet
Center for Research and Strategic Studies LINK