Tivon at KTFA Tuesday PM "Basic Overview" 7-12-2022

KTFA: 

Tivon:  The establishment of a Federal Oil and Gas Council (FOGC), which would act as the main body for overseeing the Iraqi petroleum sector. The membership of the FOGC would consist of

The relevant Deputy Prime Minister.

The Minister of Oil

The Minister of Finance

The Minister of Planning

The Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq

A ministerial-level representative of the Kurdistan region (and any other region formed pursuant to the Constitution subsequent to the enactment of the (oil and gas law)

Representatives from each producing governorate not included in a region.

The heads of the Iraq National Oil Company and the Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) (and other relevant companies)

And up to three experts specialized in matters relating to oil and gas, finance or economics. 

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Tivon:  Anyway, lets get back to business. The above is an overview of the Oil & Gas Law written by someone (CBS) last year. Not me. This is a brilliant overview which is only a portion of the overall coverage.

I want you to read this and take note of the relevant authorities one of which includes the CBI. You see how this is all intertwined? You see how if the CBI would have released the rate prior to the Oil & Gas Law being voted on and enacted would have conflicted with its own positions on the council?

I posted this example before. Let's look at it again. Picture a Fed-appointed agent who orders $12,500 worth of oil from Iraq. Payment will consist of a $12,500 transfer from the Fed’s foreign currency reserve IQD account to the IRAQ Oil payment account at the CBI (Central Bank of Iraq) in a form otherwise known as PetroDollars/PetroDinar.

Even though the world spot price of oil is defined in terms of USD, the actual transaction may take place in any internationally recognized currency agreed to by the parties.

For example, Iran only accepts Yen from Japan for their oil orders, because they don’t want USD in their foreign currency reserves. So how does the CBI recapture the money? The $12,500 order is filled with 250 barrels of oil based on the spot price on the date of the sale (for this example we used a $50 USD spot price).

What does it cost Iraq to produce the oil to fill this order? Well they have negotiated productions agreements for approximately $1.50 USD/barrel. From that price $.50 USD goes to the national Iraqi oil company who is the partner in the field the oil came from. Out of the remaining $1.00 the other oil field partners have to pay the Iraq government a profit tax of $.35 USD (35%).

The net cost to Iraq to produce a barrel of oil used in this scenario is ex $.65 USD. (i.e. $1.50–.50–.35 per gallon) What does all that mean? It cost Iraq $162.50 to bring back a 10,000 IQD note! Can they afford that? I think so! So, instead of paying out $12,500 for a 10,000 IQD note, they only pay $162.50! That doesn’t add to the money supply much at all does it!

They receive their IQD back and place it in the CBI, or destroy it. The transaction is completed with the Federal Reserve exchanging foreign reserve credits which are equal to $12,500 USD (which had a net acquisition cost of $4,000 USD for the US) for 250 barrels of oil (Which has a TOTAL COST to produce of $162.50 USD for Iraq.

You see how out of 50 different interpretations it only takes one to make sense? Win-Win for everyone across the board.

More completely explained, and simply put, it cost Iraq $162.50 USD from their foreign currency reserve accounts to redeem the value of 10,000 IQD, which goes into their operating accounts. At the same time the US got $12,500 worth of oil for a net cost of $4,000.

That’s how it was originally planned for Iraq to RV/RI at 1 IQD = 1 USD, with the variable being the political element (i.e. UN Sanctions) GOI (Government of Iraq) (IMF) (World Bank actions etc.) IMO

 ~~~~~~~~~~

Tivon:  Don't worry to much about the math. I am showing you why we basically have not seen the exchange rate.

They need the Oil & Gas Law in place on a constitutional basis in order to maximize profits for the new exchange rate to mean anything for the overall GDP internationally.

This is why the 1:1 out of the gate makes sense. Because of the oil price. The EFSL will allocate funds to the Ministry of Oil because of the private sector where the hiring for positions in the oil refinery will help bolster the overall output in terms of exports.

The purpose of the Refining Law is to encourage private sector investment in Iraq's refining sector, and it specifically allows the private sector to establish crude oil refineries, possess, operate and manage their facilities, and market their products.

The Oil & Gas Law plays directly into the reinstatement. The CBI was not going to release the rate just because the EFSL was published. They are on the Council. They are watching what Al-Kazemi is doing. Which is why we need to focus on him. The CBI becomes relevant after the Oil & Gas is done.

This is a very powerful month. That session will reveal everything. IMO

MilitiaMan Tuesday Afternon "Three Options" 7-12-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  Three scenarios, two of which are in the interest of Al-Kazemi.. A source from the framework: Al-Maliki withdrew from the candidacy

2th July, 2022

A source in the coordinating framework that includes all Shiite forces except for the Sadrist movement, which seeks to form the next government, revealed that the competition is limited to three candidates for prime minister, indicating that the leader of the state of law, Nuri al-Maliki, will withdraw from the nomination for the position, along with the imminent nomination of a candidate for the position of First Deputy. to the Speaker of Parliament. 

The source told Shafaq News Agency, "The competition for the position of prime minister is limited to 3 personalities, including the former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and the former Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, in addition to one of the personalities from the second row leaders of one of the forces of the coordination framework, known for his strength in decision-making.

In addition to his political acumen, these people will enter the competition cycle within the coordination framework, and whoever gains the highest points will be an official candidate for the framework for the position of prime minister.

The source pointed out that "the leader of the rule of law and in his last statement is an explicit declaration of withdrawal from the candidacy for the presidency of the next government, but they will have a share in naming a candidate on their behalf for the position of the first deputy speaker of parliament."

He pointed out that "there are three applicable scenarios in the next stage. The first is to maintain Mustafa Al-Kazemi's government in the event that the Kurds agree on Barham Salih as a compromise candidate among them, in addition to Al-Kazemi's presentation of a practical and brief government program, time ceilings and priorities, with a change in his booth for those hovering around them." Files of corruption or defective management.

He continued, "The second scenario is that the three candidates will enter into an electoral competition within the framework, and whoever wins is the favored one, by a unanimous decision of the framework."

And he added, "The third scenario is to extend the life of the Al-Kazemi government for a period of one year in preparation for holding early elections with a change in the entire booth," noting that "the special parliament session to be held after Eid will not be delayed if it is agreed upon and all matters are resolved, especially the Kurdish candidate for the presidency." .

Earlier today, the leader of the Al-Fateh Alliance, Hadi Al-Amiri, had rejected his candidacy to head the next government, while stressing that his bloc would not participate in any future government.

Al-Amiri said in a statement received by Shafaq News Agency: "While I reject this media performance that is charged with lies, and may be paid for, I would like to emphasize that this news is false, and that I am not a candidate for this position and reject my candidacy from those who believe that this is correct from the Brotherhood." He stressed that "what is important to him first and foremost is to preserve the unity of the framework, and that he will provide support and assistance to any candidate agreed upon in the coordinating framework.   LINK

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

MilitiaMan:   Three options Two of which are in favor for Al-Kahdimi. We know there needs to be direction in which way that are to go with these options. These most realistic view imo is that from what I know to be true is that presently the PM has necessary powers that were outlined in the constitution and likely to be in the EFSL / White Papers.

There is a focus on corruption. That is not going away. Having the necessary powers to dissolve parliament has the corruption files in the cross hairs.

 Dissolution of parliament puts those with corruption files at risk to losing immunity. Also if not the corruption files then the dissolution brings failure to mind in the publics eye thus, being re elected makes for dicey outcomes. Likely the failure of parliament to work for the citizens would not be forgotten. So those two alleys are not in their favor. 

The fact that Maliki has withdrew from the candidacy brings into question of will they go the route of since the withdrawal of Maliki will Sadr be fine with that and allow the government to be seated with the likes of the PM and Salih in place, be the option? Itwould still leave the corruption files in place and they can be sorted over time. A risk those in parliament will have to take? Both ways appear to be in favor of Kahdimi and are likely supported by the street. Something Sadr is fully aware of. We shall see. 

The third way is not in PMs favor and is more timely in nature. Something that is not in Iraq's best interest. The world is watching and they are looking for results in the government process to be completed. There are global initiatives at play this week.

They are with POTUS in the Middle East and Janet Yellen in Japan and Indonesia. All about key global events surround security, stability, finance, food security, climate change, Ukraine, Covid-19, etc.. The main focus is under the guise of food security, Universal Health Care and Finance... All on the table this week. Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran all on the table. All while the G20 et al are meeting.. There are no coincidences. This is all before us. The Central Banks of the world all are in formed. They have been all along the way. 

Iraq has been given notice. We can see the urgency now. They need to get off the camel and get in the game now.. Or risk the consequences.. Financially that would be a big mistake and they know it.. The Finance Minister and the Prime Minister are likely well informed by the IMF, WB, G7, G,20, UST, EU, etc.. They have had many meetings.. It is show time.  imo ~ MM

KTFA Members "News and Views" Tuesday Afternoon 7-12-2022

KTFA:

DallasDude:  Frank just stated on You Tube rate CAN change rate under caretaker government with Kazemi..and I agree

Clare:  FRANK ALSO SAID THAT THE GOV HAS TO BE ANNOUNCED/SEATED IN HIS OPINION... FRANK HAS TOLD US FOR A WHILE NOW THEY HAVE THE GOV .. IT HAS TO BE ANNOUNCED AND FRANK HAS NOT FINISHED THE CC YET, BUT  "CONFIDENCE" IS A KEYWORD FOR TONIGHT....
AND I WOULD THINK THE GOV NEEDS A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FOR THE PEOPLE'S SAKE!

THE GOV SITUATION HAS TO BE RESOLVED PUBLICALLY ONE WAY  OR ANOTHER (AND WE WILL WITNESS IT SOON)  ... AND THEN THERE WILL BE NO FAILURE WITH THE CITIZENS WITH A NEW EXCHANGE RATE  IMO

FRANK ALSO SAID ON THE CC THE CBI IS LOOKING FOR "CONFIDENCE"

"WHAT IS THE CONFIDENCE? A NEW GOV'T ANNOUNCED!"....F26

"IT MUST NOT FAIL WITH THE CITIZENS" ...WS & F26 

"THE CITIZENS WILL SEE THE GOV & CBI SHOULDER TO SHOULDER" ...WS & F26

KTFA Monday Night CC:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkCb3zte4zk

Samson:  Three scenarios, two of which are in the interest of Al-Kazemi.. A source from the framework: Al-Maliki withdrew from the candidacy

12th July, 2022

A source in the coordinating framework that includes all Shiite forces except for the Sadrist movement, which seeks to form the next government, revealed that the competition is limited to three candidates for prime minister, indicating that the leader of the state of law, Nuri al-Maliki, will withdraw from the nomination for the position, along with the imminent nomination of a candidate for the position of First Deputy. to the Speaker of Parliament. 

The source told Shafaq News Agency, "The competition for the position of prime minister is limited to 3 personalities, including the former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and the former Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, in addition to one of the personalities from the second row leaders of one of the forces of the coordination framework, known for his strength in decision-making.

In addition to his political acumen, these people will enter the competition cycle within the coordination framework, and whoever gains the highest points will be an official candidate for the framework for the position of prime minister.

The source pointed out that "the leader of the rule of law and in his last statement is an explicit declaration of withdrawal from the candidacy for the presidency of the next government, but they will have a share in naming a candidate on their behalf for the position of the first deputy speaker of parliament."

He pointed out that "there are three applicable scenarios in the next stage. The first is to maintain Mustafa Al-Kazemi's government in the event that the Kurds agree on Barham Salih as a compromise candidate among them, in addition to Al-Kazemi's presentation of a practical and brief government program, time ceilings and priorities, with a change in his booth for those hovering around them." Files of corruption or defective management.

He continued, "The second scenario is that the three candidates will enter into an electoral competition within the framework, and whoever wins is the favored one, by a unanimous decision of the framework."

And he added, "The third scenario is to extend the life of the Al-Kazemi government for a period of one year in preparation for holding early elections with a change in the entire booth," noting that "the special parliament session to be held after Eid will not be delayed if it is agreed upon and all matters are resolved, especially the Kurdish candidate for the presidency." .

Earlier today, the leader of the Al-Fateh Alliance, Hadi Al-Amiri, had rejected his candidacy to head the next government, while stressing that his bloc would not participate in any future government.

Al-Amiri said in a statement received by Shafaq News Agency: "While I reject this media performance that is charged with lies, and may be paid for, I would like to emphasize that this news is false, and that I am not a candidate for this position and reject my candidacy from those who believe that this is correct from the Brotherhood." He stressed that "what is important to him first and foremost is to preserve the unity of the framework, and that he will provide support and assistance to any candidate agreed upon in the coordinating framework.  LINK

*************

Samson:  With the end of the Eid and Parliament holidays approaching, the countdown begins to resolve the formation of the government

12th July, 2022

With the Eid and Parliament holidays approaching the end, the countdown to resolving the electoral benefits has begun, and attention is turning to the Kurdish and Shiite political forces, awaiting the resolution of the names that will have the best luck in assuming the positions of the two highest executive authorities, namely the presidents of the republic and the Council of Ministers.

Despite the ambiguity of the situation and the lack of clarity about the final features of the candidates’ form, a parliamentarian confirmed that the next few days will witness advanced understandings that will reach good dimensions on the way to resolving electoral benefits and forming a government, while a Kurdish politician referred to a meeting he described as crucial after the Eid holiday to come up with a final position regarding Candidate file for the position of President of the Republic.

Representative of the State of Law coalition, Duha al-Qusayr, confirmed that the next few days will witness advanced understandings that will reach good proportions in the way of resolving the electoral benefits and going to form a government. Al-Qusayr said in an interview with Alsumaria News, "The prime ministership is related to the largest bloc and its candidate is assigned by the elected president of the republic, who will be a candidate from the Kurdish component," noting that "the decision of the name of the candidate for the position of the president of the republic is linked to the understandings between the Kurdish forces."

And she added, "The next few days will witness advanced understandings that will reach good dimensions on the way to resolving the electoral benefits and going to form the government," noting that "the scenario of political blockage will be far, given that there is an agreement that the public interest will prevail and everyone's obsession and concern to bring Iraq to safety."

Al-Qusair continued, "Everyone has a full perception of the importance of the next government being service-oriented and bearing in mind the initiation of the issue of infrastructure in order to provide services, and that it be a capable and capable government, that it stays away from division and discrimination, that it is not exclusionary or marginal, as well as that it is interested in involving Everyone is able to cross the stage and go with Iraq and its people to achieve what they aspire to."

For his part, a member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Subhi Al-Mandalawi, confirmed that there is a crucial meeting that will be held after the Eid holiday between the Democratic Party and the Union to decide the name of the candidate for the position of President of the Republic.

Al-Mandalawi said in an interview with Alsumaria News, "There are rapprochement and positive meetings between the two Kurdish parties, as well as good understandings between the two parties on many files of interest to both parties," noting that "there is a decisive meeting that will be held between the two political offices after the Eid holiday in order to resolve the file of a candidate for the position of president." Republic".

He added, "The Kurdistan Democratic Party, until this moment, is still its candidate, Riber Ahmed, and at the same time, the PUK is still sticking to the name of their candidate, Barham Salih." He may impose himself again, and each side will go to Baghdad under the name of a different candidate than the other."

LINK

Samson:  Iraq and Saudi Arabia are declining.. India's oil imports from Russia rise

12th July, 2022

India's oil imports from Russia jumped to a record level of about 950,000 barrels per day last June, which represents about five imports of the third largest oil consumer in the world, according to data provided by Indian trade.

Indian refiners were buying Russian oil sold at deep discounts on Brent and Middle East crude after some companies and Western countries avoided buying from Moscow after it invaded Ukraine on February 24.

The data showed that India shipped about 4.8 million barrels per day of oil in June, down 3.8 percent from May but about 23 percent higher than the previous year. India's oil imports were low as demand for fuel was affected by a second deadly wave of the Corona virus.

The data showed that oil imports from Russia increased by 15.5% in June compared to May, while imports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia fell by 10.5% and 13.5%, respectively, with the Middle East's share declining to 56.5% from 59.3%.

Russia remained India's second largest oil supplier after Iraq, while Saudi Arabia remained third for the second month in a row.

Cheaper Russian oil reduces losses to India's state-run refineries that sell fuel at low prices in the domestic market, while adding to the profits of private companies Reliance Industries Limited (RELI.NS) and Nayara Energy, which export most of their refined products.

India, the world's third-largest oil importer, has defended its purchases of "cheap" Russian oil, saying it provides only a fraction of the country's overall needs, and a sudden stop will increase costs for consumers.

The rise in oil imports from Russia reduced the share of OPEC in India's total imports to 65.2% during the quarter and 60.8% in June, and the data showed that the share of OPEC in India's oil imports has been declining since last March.  LINK

**************

Samson:  On this date.. Putin visits Iran and the latter reveals the most important goals of the visit

12th July, 2022

The head of the Economic Committee of the Iranian Shura Council, Mohammad Reza Pour Ebrahimi, confirmed today, Tuesday, that Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Tehran next week.

Pour Ibrahimi, who visited Moscow with the governor of the Central Bank of Iran, said in a press statement that the Russian president will visit Tehran next week.

He stressed that "Russia is serious about expanding its economic relations with Iran, and planning for this goal will be at the top of Putin's agenda in his meeting with Iranian leaders." He added that "the US and European embargo on Russia has intensified Russia's interest in economic and commercial dealings with Iran."

Pour Ibrahimi explained that "after President Ibrahim Raisi's recent visit to Russia, a positive atmosphere was created in Moscow regarding economic cooperation with Iran, and very good agreements were signed during that visit."  LINK

MilitiaMan and Tivon "Necessary Powers: Tuesday 7-12-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  A deputy explains the absence of legislation in Parliament

11th July, 2022

The State of Law coalition explained, on Monday, the absence of legislation from the House of Representatives.

The representative of the coalition, Faisab Al-Naeli, said in an exclusive interview with Mawazine News, that most of the legislation comes from the government, and that the latter is now a caretaker that does not have the right to send any law to the House of Representatives.

He added that. except for legislation that has not been resolved, such as the oil and gas law and some controversial laws that need political consensus and resolve the government's file because of its importance not to challenge it and to be passed and applied by the government.

MilitiaMan:  As I have shown in many times now, as have others that the Supreme Judicial Council stated specifically that there is no such thing implicitly in the constitution as a care taker government. It is merely a contextual matter of being one. It is not implicit at all.

To keep stating that the present government is a caretaker government is not implicitly correct and stating as such will not make that fact go away. Therefore using terms out side of for instance powers the Prime Minister has is correct if one uses, "necessary powers". That is the JSC words.. Not full powers or anything similar.

Necessary powers is how it was worded.. Those powers are for to be used during emergency.. Time of war or crisis. They are in a constitutional crisis. Thus, as Tivon states in the EFSl (Emergency Food Security Law) there are necessary powers that have been given to the PM.

So if we close in on what is said in the article above we can see evidence that supports Kahdimi has the powers to complete the HCL..  (Hydro Carbon Law or also called Oil and Gas Law)

The present government (they use caretaker) doesn't have the right to send any law to the HOR (House of Representatives?) or do they.. They do. Notice the use the word "EXCEPT"? Key word. They can and likely will resolve the  oil and gas law, as it is a part of the White Papers and is for the needs of the citizens... The emergency security food law has the white papers in it. 

Lets not lose sight of what we have been saying and Tivon has been hammering home.  The PM has the necessary powers to get things done. HE has the powers to dissolve the HOR. Sadr, knows that. So do we if one reads the data. We might want to be careful with the part about we have the arms to sign into law. The HCL may have been in the first session that was done late on the 06/23/2022 (15 day) or just before 07/06/2022 the day of the EFSL being published in the gazette.

As for the HCL, they'll activate it all at the same time they do everything else. Just, as they will the ports, borders, clearing systems, etc..

We know that only the Iran payment apparently was distributed to date. Therefore, we can surmise this period we are in, is a convergence. A possible CBI and GOI convergence that has ground work not necessarily spoke of directly in the works. 

The SJC specifically wrote about what can be done and the specific meaning of terms for a reason. That reason is to be on public record with and for the citizens. During this government we have today, will be the government Frank speaks of on the call.

It is the government with the "necessary powers" that is in charge today and will be going forward for some time.

I suspect that there will be an announcement of a seated government, as the same in place today, as Kahdimi has the power to dissolve the parliament, thus, those in place today along side for PM Kahdimi will lead until the next one is formed.

Keep in mind that the file of the HCL above states that  due to it's importance it can be legislated by the present government and that is under the PMs control due to aforementioned "necessary powers".. imo

The SJC spoke about it in February 2022 and June 2022.. We shall see what happens in respect to this sooner or later.. I suspect sooner than.. To the far bottom... I beg to differ and show links regularly too, even the article above supports that PM K has authority.. imo lol ~ MM

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Tivon:  "What have I been telling you all? The EFSL is for stalled laws and projects. We got one major obstacle out of the way by having the EFSL published in the Gazette. Now we need to give it legs so the citizens can run with it. Right now we have the arms to sign it into law. But the heads need to come together during the session and use the constitutional powers to ensure its passed and voted on. This is where the Purchasing Power for the citizens lie.

Do they have to wait to reinstate until the Oil & Gas Law is done? I wouldn't explicitly say so. But' securing this particular law can contribute to the citizens having PP out the gate from the onset of the CBI releasing the rate on the same day or week which would prompt them to turn in their 3 zero notes at a much faster pace.

But why wouldn't they without the Oil & Gas Law if they now have an international operational rate? I presume the citizens are aware of the extra bonus every month on top of their income would be a welcoming gift. So aside from that the price of goods & services will be fair and affordable given that the IQD/USD pairing would be equal. But the extra incentive to spend money you didn't have to work for as an allowance every month can boost spending tremendously.

Which is the goal that would expedite the phasing out of the old notes. Blitz Play coming up. IMO ~ Tivon
 ----------------

Godlover:  K lacks authority & backing at many levels as the articles have been saying. I do however believe K is setting things up for the next government. ~ " Godlover

*****************

Tivon:  Right, you caught on to the specific wording used to justify the powers that the PM has. You noticed they referenced the Oil & Gas Law a stalled law?

What have I been saying for the past few months? That the EFSL was designed to to pick up on what they wanted to do with the 2021 budget. Why? Because there were "Stalled Laws" that never got voted on last year which includes....drum roll please' The HCL!

Which gives the PM the authority to enact it once it is voted on because it is tied directly into "Citizens Entitlements" which is a part of the Constitution. Which is why they were able to get Kurdistan to sign over the oil contracts sense it violates the constitutional Entitlements/Paragraphs in the EFSL that Mazhar Muhammad Saleh spoke on when he stated that was the main reason the EFSL could not be challenged by the government. This is in writing.

Explicitly. People asked why we didn't see a rate on the same day the EFSL was published. Which was never in the cards. They didn't go through all the trouble to legally revoke Kurdistan and then shoot themselves in the foot by reinstating the IQD prematurely before the Oil & Gas Law was enacted and lose out on trillions in the process.

The EFSL is limited to this year. So the PM can not afford to put this Oil & Gas Law off into a future budget they are not sure will have this law as a priority like it is now under emergency powers. So he will short his country and reinstate without giving ultimate powers to his cabinet using the EFSL. IMO

KTFA Monday Night CC "The CBI Works With Kazemi" 7-11-2022

KTFA

Monday Night KTFA CC

Frank26:   7-11-22…….THE CBI WORKS WITH KAZEMI

This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only

Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Petra, MilitiaMan and Eddie in Iraq

Playback Number: 605-313-5163   PIN: 156996#

What Frank’s suit color’s mean…. FRANKS SUIT COLORS FOR CC'S..... WHITE = NEW INFO…. SILVER = INTEL FROZEN…. RED= HIGH ALERT… PURPLE=GUEST WITH US…. BLUE = AIR FORCE…. BLACK = GROUND/FF’S…. GREEN= MR OR FAB 4 ... GOLD = CHANGE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkCb3zte4zk

KTFA Members "News and Views" Monday PM 7-11-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  A deputy explains the absence of legislation in Parliament

11th July, 2022

The State of Law coalition explained, on Monday, the absence of legislation from the House of Representatives.

The representative of the coalition, Faisab Al-Naeli, said in an exclusive interview with Mawazine News, that most of the legislation comes from the government, and that the latter is now a caretaker that does not have the right to send any law to the House of Representatives.

He added that except for legislation that has not been resolved, such as the oil and gas law and some controversial laws that need political consensus and resolve the government's file because of its importance not to challenge it and to be passed and applied by the government.    LINK

Tivon:  What have I been telling you all? The EFSL is for stalled laws and projects. We got one major obstacle out of the way by having the EFSL published in the Gazette. Now we need to give it legs so the citizens can run with it.

Right now we have the arms to sign it into law. But the heads need to come together during the session and use the constitutional powers to ensure its passed and voted on. This is where the Purchasing Power for the citizens lie.

Do they have to wait to reinstate until the Oil & Gas Law is done? I wouldn't explicitly say so. But' securing this particular law can contribute to the citizens having PP out the gate from the onset of the CBI releasing the rate on the same day or week which would prompt them to turn in their 3 zero notes at a much faster pace.

But why wouldn't they without the Oil & Gas Law if they now have an international operational rate?

 I presume the citizens are aware of the extra bonus every month on top of their income would be a welcoming gift. So aside from that the price of goods & services will be fair and affordable given that the IQD/USD pairing would be equal.

But the extra incentive to spend money you didn't have to work for as an allowance every month can boost spending tremendously. Which is the goal that would expedite the phasing out of the old notes. Blitz Play coming up. IMO

~~~~~~~~~~~

DallasDude:  Before the EFSL law was ever mentioned I was in the camp of got to have a government with a budget being passed..My train of thought has changed based on tremendous well thought out,very educated breakdown of the true purpose of the EFSL..and I thank those on here who have done that,you know who you are..lol, the writings not just on the wall but in the articles to back it up..enough said.

Jeffrey:  I love reading your posts as well as everyone's opinions. And IMO you are still correct cuz guess what NON OF US ARE AT THE BANK YET!

DallasDude:  True we are not in the banks yet, but in fairness we are waiting on the next session to reconvene which should be no later than this weekend I hope..After that the opposition needs to prepare for the BLITZ..I don't believe they have the personnel in position to stop it..

Tivon:  Understandable. The reason you are not at the bank yet is because they will not enrich us at the expense of their citizens. Which is what we are basically asking them to do. So how will they protect themselves from the onset of the reinstatement? The Oil & Gas Law because that currently makes up 95% of their revenue. Why would they release the new exchange rate and lose trillions of dollars by not having the HCL in place prior to the reinstatement? Let's not be selfish here. All they needed was a legal standing to support the move. Now they do thanks to the publication of the EFSL in the Gazette. It's tied directly to the constitution which stipulates that the Oil & Gas Law belongs to the citizens and not the aristocracy in Kurdistan. IMO

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Hammy14:  IMO Kazemi and his Cabinet qualify completely as a "seated government."  The EFSL will legally work in place of the budget for the remainder of this year.  Kazemi has ALL he needs to bring forth the reforms that will also include the reinstatement of their currency, which will be tradable internationally.  All these reforms, including monetary, is the entire reason for passing the EFSL in the first place!!!  Once again, this law gives Kazemi FULL LEGAL AUTHORITY to move forward now.  The show is just beginning.  Sit back and watch it all unfold.

Tivon:  The EFSL Gazette/PDF literally states this in the 33 page document that refers to Al-Kazemi as a current seated government. This is substantiated factual information. I even posted statements from Walkingstick saying the same thing.

MilitiaMan Sunday Afternoon "Things Are Looking Very Good Now" 7-10-2022

KTFA: 

The Central Bank : There is no future plan that includes changing the exchange rate   LINK

MilitiaMan:  The deputy governor has stated what appears to be this same propaganda on more than one instance this month. Firstly, he is not the CBI Governor, however,  mind you he does work for the bank but, he is not the Ruler.

Secondly, there is by far way to many good things going on to not change the exchange rate. For crying out loud they have every intention to bring purchase power to the citizens. They have the AYSCUDA system at the borders and have garnered 10 year historic high revenue increase from the customs fees, taxes, tariffs, etc...

The citizens know this it was headline news.

MilitiaMan cont…..The EFSL was passed by the present government for the citizens, again headline news. Also, lets not forget the CBI Governor in England offering gifts of currency to the Central Bank of England. The photos represent sovereignty.. Not a program rate..

Why in the world would the CBI give the CBE more worthless currency. They already have trillions.. lol The new ATMS have new technology to for recycling cash and at varied exchange rates for multiple currencies. They even tell us about coins as an educational bit. There is not need for coins at a program rate.

Take note the World Bank and the IMF have completed and or concluded their mission. The UST, WB, the IMF, the EU, etc., all are in the recent news for to support Iraq in the all reforms, security, economics, energy, etc..

So, with the below I believe this piece above is smoke.. Lets see what they do next.

The indicators are large that are still on track to make an exchange rate change. Kahdimi has said it himself.. imo.. Sadr too, has the citizens on the agenda. He will be out in force for a devotional this next week on Friday...

So to suggest that there will not be an exchange rate change is goes against the below.. imo ~ MM

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The Governor of the Central Bank promises to support the banks and overcome the difficulties they face   LINK

__________________

 The Central Bank of Iraq's gold reserves rise

27th June, 2022

Today, Monday, the Central Bank of Iraq announced that Iraq has advanced ten ranks in the table of the most countries in gold reserves, bringing its total possessions to (130.39) tons, ranked thirty in the world and fourth in the Arab world.

---------------------------

The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, surprised the Iraqis about the possibility of changing and reducing the exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar.
 
He noted that "the first limit according to commodity prices and the market, and at that time the central bank will defend the stability of prices according to the reserve, which is the highest in its history now, and we have an encouraging surplus for the end of the year from 8 to 10 percent." He stressed, "If prices and financial policies fail to defend the livelihood of the poor and social protection salaries, the Central Bank will intervene by raising the purchasing power of the Central Bank through its foreign reserves

LINK

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 In this regard, a member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Nermin Maarouf, confirmed that "returning the dollar exchange rate to its previous rate is one of the prerogatives of the Central Bank and not the powers of either the federal government or the House of Representatives." She added that "there are attempts by members of the House of Representatives and the Ministry of Finance to return the dollar exchange rate to its old level," noting that "the actions of the two sides complement each other, but the exchange rate against currencies and changing it is exclusively the prerogative of the Central Bank."    LINK

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"The " caretaker government " (contextual only per SJC)  has the right to dispose of the surplus of the 2021 budget, amounting to 14 billion dollars, which is supposed to be used to raise the value of the dinar and increase the balance of hard currency."   LINK

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"We are proud to be the first financial institution in Iraq to deploy the new ATM technology and look forward to providing innovative services to our customers."   LINK

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"We are proud to be the first to launch modern teller technology in Iraq, and we are constantly looking to provide the latest services to our customers. (

FOR A PROGRAM RATE???!!!-F26

 Modern money changers have received great interest from the bank's customers, and we are sure that the  launch of cash deposit services in Automated teller machines (ATMs) in the near future will enable the bank to raise the level of services provided to our customers, and to deal with cash feeding with high efficiency

ATM cash deposit feature is an essential part of Diebold Nixdorff's modern design. Habib Hanna, director of the Middle East region at Diebold Nixdorff, said, "I am very pleased to choose Kartas Islamic Bank for the new ATMs from our company. The bank can use these ATMs to provide many advanced services to its customers   LINK
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Maysani issues a book documenting Iraqi stamps and coins   LINK

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The Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq participates in the closing meeting of the World Bank mission    https://cbi.iq/news/view/2005

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IMF Staff Concludes Staff Visit to Iraq    LINK

Samson:  Iraqis hold their breath, waiting for Friday al-Sadr: a new government or a change in the rules of the game

10th July, 2022

The developments of the situation in Iraq indicate that the political process is heading towards early elections and the preservation of Mustafa Al-Kazemi's government for another year, while the parties to the "coordinating framework" that intensifies its meetings despite the differences between its ranks confirmed that the formation of the government and the end of negotiations will be announced after the Eid holiday. Al-Adha.

The Iraqi political analyst, Muhammad Ali Al-Hakim, stressed that any government born without the “Sadr movement” will be “lame,” noting that “the withdrawal of the Sadrist movement from parliament put the coordination framework in a critical situation, so the Sadrist movement cannot exit without a pre-prepared scenario."

In statements, Al-Hakim expected that the next few days would be full of surprises, and that the next Friday prayer would be a clear message and challenge to the "coordination framework."

On the other hand, the "coordinating framework" is expected to announce after the Eid al-Adha holiday the end of political talks to form the new government.

Deputy Zainab al-Moussawi, a member of the Coordination Framework, said that after the Eid, the end of the talks to form the new government would be announced, stressing that the names proposed to take over the prime minister's office are important.  She pointed out that "there is no scenario to go to new elections, as discussions are in full swing within the coordination framework and with some other blocs to come up with a new formula that crosses Iraq to safety."    LINK

MilitiaMan:   I will bet there will be many fronts this next week that could be very surprising. Maybe even see the dissolution of parliament. EFSL gave "Necessary Powers" to Kahdimi and the White papers were said to be the corner stone if you will from the results of the World Bank and IMF mission in Iraq. The CBI knows that full well and has likely calculated it, as would Sadr too, Kahdimi, Saleh, Allawi, etc. Everyone in the need to know realm.. Knows what to expect now, surprises... lol  imo~ MM

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Samson:  Kurdish politician: The people have run out of patience with the high cost of living and will stage major demonstrations

10th July, 2022

A member of the Kurdistan Regional Parliament, Diyari Anwar, confirmed on Sunday that the Kurdish people have run out of patience with the bad economic conditions in the region.

Anwar said in a statement to "Al-Maalouma" that "raising the price of fuel to record rates that exceeded the reasonable limits is a challenge to the people."

He added that "the delay in the distribution of salaries, as well as the presence of thousands of unemployed people, and the high rates of poverty, all portend major demonstrations against the poor conditions borne by the ruling parties."

From time to time hundreds of motorists demonstrate in Sulaymaniyah to protest against the increase in fuel prices.    LINK

MilitiaMan:  The heat is on. More pressure... With demonstrations starting and Sadr going out next Friday in devotionals and marching.. Looks like the timing is coming to a cross road.. Sadr wants the Iraqis to get purchase power and legitimacy. imo ~ MM

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Samson:  The Iraqi Stock Exchange lacks "credibility"... How does it differ from the world's stock exchanges?

10th July, 2022

The economic expert, Nasser Al-Kinani, said today, Sunday, that the Iraqi stock market has lost its credibility among traders due to the volatility of the political situation.

Al-Kinani said, to (Baghdad Today), that "the Iraqi stock market has lost its credibility among traders due to the fluctuation of the political situation," wondering, "if the economy has stopped, how will it be productive?" He added, "The first shareholders who bought the stock at a value of one dinar after the closure should gradually rise, but the situation in Iraq is different from what is in the countries of the world."

Al-Kinani continued, "There are those who bought shares in the year 90's worth fifty thousand dinars, and when the company was reviewed, it was found that the value of the share is five dinars now."

Economists and specialists demanded to expand the work of the Iraqi Stock Exchange, and to attract additional companies to offer their shares to investors, in proportion to the size of the Iraqi economy, especially since the companies listed within the market, their number is estimated at 100, which does not fully reflect the size of the country's economy.

And the Iraq Stock Exchange, located in the capital, Baghdad, and was established in June 2004, and operates under the supervision of the Iraqi Securities Commission, an independent body that was established along the lines of the American Securities and Exchange Commission.

Specialists believe that the Iraqi Stock Exchange - the Iraqi Stock Exchange - is not commensurate with the size of Iraq, the trade balance and the national income, stressing the importance of amending the law of the Securities and Companies Commission to expand the work of the Iraqi financial market.

In the period prior to the change of the previous regime in 2003, the current market was called the “Baghdad Stock Exchange”, which was managed by the Iraqi Ministry of Finance, but now it is a self-regulatory body, and as of 2005 the Iraqi Stock Exchange became the only stock exchange in Iraq.

When it opened in 2004, there were only 15 companies listed in the market, but now 103 Iraqi joint stock companies are listed, representing sectors; Banking, telecommunications, industry, agriculture, insurance, financial investment, tourism and hotels.    LINK

MilitiaMan:  Once they adjust the IQD to international standards (commensurate with size), the shares should explode!! imo.. ~ MM

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Independent Deputy: We expect Biden to intervene to solve the political crisis in Iraq   LINK

MilitiaMan:  Regardless of who is saying it or not. The likely outlook is for the parliament to be dissolved imo.. The Supreme Judicial Council has talked / written on the matter and the EFSL is showing that what was written is being followed.. Just as we see the HCL being talked about with respect to the Kurds.. imo Things are looking very good now..  ~ MM

******************

Warnings of upcoming protests... Is there a plan to expedite the formation of the government?  LINK

MilitiaMan:  PM Kadhimi and Al-Sadr are looking to be strongly supported for the future... All bodes well for us.. imo.. Lets look for this next week surprises... The constitution being violated by not seating the Government is why "Necessary Powers" in the EFSL 33 page document.. Keep in mind the Supreme Judicial Council has written about the topic of what a caretaker government is and is not.The SJC alos spoke of the dissolution of parliament in emergency time frames, well being outside the constition as noted above, this means Kahdimii is set for to do day to day business and if it affects the citizens needs, get it done.. imo !!! ~ MM

Tivon and KTFA Members "News and Views" Sunday 7-`0-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  The Central Bank : There is no future plan that includes changing the exchange rate

10th July, 2022

Sunday, the Central Bank confirmed that there is no justification for changing the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar, while indicating that the economic circumstance is the main criterion for changing the exchange rate.

The Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, Ammar Khalaf, said in a statement to the Iraqi News Agency (INA): “The exchange rate at the present time - in our belief as a monetary authority - there is no justification for changing it,” explaining, that “changing the exchange rate remains within the monetary authority’s policy and according to circumstances.”

He pointed out that "during the years from 2004 until now, the exchange rate has changed more than once, depending on the circumstances, whether to increase or decrease." 

He added, "The economic circumstance is the main ruler, and there is no future plan to change the exchange rate, whether after 3-5 years, and the economic conditions determine what is the appropriate decision that fits the time period at the time."

He stressed, "The exchange rate is within the monetary policy and is the exclusive competence of the Central Bank, and when it sees that there is a necessity, it thinks about changing the exchange rate, but currently there is no justification or need to modify it," explaining, that "monetary policy, one of its advantages is flexibility in general and not it is good to change the exchange rate quickly because it confuses the markets and weakens the economy."  LINK

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The Central Bank: There is no future plan that includes changing the exchange rate LINK

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Tivon:  Guys, ask yourself. Why is he trying so hard to convince the citizens of this personal notion of his? This guy is on a campaign. How do you say  that there is no justification.

When the Oil & Gas Law is contingent upon the USD price reduction so the citizens can receive their monthly allotments according to the Constitution? This guy is willing to break the law with his baseless theory that goes against commonsense, reality, and legal articles that justifies the rate change.

 Not your opinion. That's more than enough of a reason.

The Citizens Entitlements is apart of the EFSL. This guy is directly going against PM  Al-Kazemi. How do you say the economic circumstance is the main ruler as to what can determine the exchange rate when the citizens are suffering from inflation? Isn't that an economic crisis?

They literally can't afford nothing for the holiday festivities. They Can't pay rent. But you know he is definitely one of these guys in the Maliki camp. Not to mention the oil prices. This high demand will not last. Citigroup warned of that. Do you see how he is double speaking.

How do you say in the same breath the monetary policy is flexible but if you change the rate it confuses the markets? So you are saying it's not flexible then? It can't be both at the same time my guy. You need to pick one because how you are saying it conflicts the two.

It's like he's talking within a bubble where what he says vs what actually is are two different scenarios that do not coexist in the same environment. The guy has no legs here. Nothing solid has been said.

Al-Kazemi is going with the law and constitution. Not your personal beliefs or feelings about the situation. Pipe down.

I remember him stating this back in February that he won't change the rate. He's literally he'll bent on keeping the citizens poor. Read the below statement and tell me the two agendas don't conflict.  No wonder the citizens were surprised when he stated this a week ago. It made no sense. 

A parliamentary bloc moves to lower the dollar exchange rate

4th July, 2022

Today, Monday, Jawad Al-Ghazali, a member of the State of Law coalition, revealed a move by his bloc to reduce the dollar exchange rate. Al-Ghazali told "Mawazine News", "The lawmakers have collected their signatures regarding reconsidering or modifying the dollar exchange rate to its previous era." He explained, "This step (comes) due to the rise in commodity prices in the markets and the harm of citizens, and this step will be towards a gradual reduction of the exchange rate, not completely, so that it will be dealt with smoothly without losses." End quote.

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Sir:  IMO-He is stating at this time! (Everything will be revealed soon) We here in America see just how much our Fed notes are worth today (-98%). The Federal note is dead for all intensive purposes, it’s just in the wake stages and will be buried soon. Again I say be patient and stay in prayer, it’s the most important thing we can do to help bring this to an end. We are so close you can smell the wine but we can’t taste it just yet, but soon we will feast like never before in history. These next few weeks will unveil corruption on a world scale, silent war no more! IMO

Tivon: Now we know they would not be able to gradually reduce the price as it will not make the IQD attractive in supply & demand from the onset and will deter the citizens from turning in the three zero notes. And it also goes against Article 8.

But something is to take note of here is that the Deputy Governor is not working in conjunction with the government. As you can see from his statements goes against the overall purpose of creating the EFSL to begin with.

So we have to ask why do these incongruent plans of action conflict with one another?

I can understand if the Ammar Khalaf was consulting with the different political camps and everyone in the meeting from Al-Kazemi cabinets to the State of Law came to one solid conclusion on the USD matter. But no, that's not the case at all.

Which makes this all the more weird. Guys we must be really close because this guy only started saying this, this year.

 I can’t find him on record at any other time or year.  Here’s another statement below. IMO

Quote: Representative Uday Awad announced that he had collected the signatures of more than 100 deputies to reduce the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar. Awad stated that based on Article (61-Seventh-C) of the Iraqi constitution and Article (56) of the internal system, please include the issue of reducing the price of the dollar in the earliest possible session, according to constitutional contexts, and because of the economic repercussions taking place in the country and the collapse of the currency and its impact on the Iraqi citizen. In turn, the Parliamentary Finance Committee denied what was recently reported about Parliament’s efforts to restore the dollar’s exchange rate to its previous state.

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DallasDude:  Thanks for your thoughts Tivon..they should be back in session by the end of the week and hopefully by the end of the month the citizens will have their entitlements and we will have a new exchange rate..there may not be justification to change the rate today or this week but when parliament resumes their session all bets are off..

Tivon:  Guys this is how I knew the Budget 2022 was dead in the water. Which by default will have Al-Kazemi run the affairs of the country for the remainder of the year.

 Jamal Cougar already admitted that there's simply not enough time to prepare a general budget. And other political blocs are already talking about skipping this year entirely and focusing on the 2023 budget. Which I think is going to prompt Al-Kazemi to be really bold and blunt with what he wants to do with the EFSL.

Blitz Play coming up.

A technical expert stated....The supplementary budget bill, officially called the "Emergency Food Security Support" bill, has its origins in demands by parliament for extra spending measures in response to public anger over the increased cost of living, and to public pressure for the government to translate the sharply rising oil revenues into public expenditures.

So Ammar Khalaf there's your ruler Deputy Governor. Sense this is the deciding factor on changing the rate. What's your next excuse? IMO

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Today, Thursday, the economic expert, Manar Al-Obaidi, commented on the fact that all financial surpluses go to finance the provisions of the Food Security Law.

 Al-Obaidi said, to (Baghdad Today), that "the information that talks about the disappearance of the financial surpluses that were achieved from the rise in oil prices since the beginning of the year to finance the paragraphs of the Food Security Law is absolutely incorrect, so it is not possible to spend all of this surplus in one time."

And he indicated that "it is not a necessity or a condition that Iraq spends all the allocated matters within the provisions of the Food Security Law," explaining that "even the public budgets do not spend all the funds allocated in them, and a lot of unspent funds remain for several reasons."

Tivon and MilitiaMan Chat "We Are In a Good Space" 7-9-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  It Is Expected That Dozens Of Laws Will Be Passed During The Next Legislative Term

9th July 2022

The Parliament’s decision, Representative Gharib Askar, expected, on Saturday, to pass dozens of stalled laws during the next legislative term, indicating that the parliament’s activity depends on accelerating the formation of the government.

Askar said in a statement to "Al-Maalouma", that "the next legislative term, that is, after the Eid al-Adha holiday, will be active in all its details, and dozens of stalled laws will be passed."

He added that "what hinders the parliament's work is the government's transformation into a caretaker and its inability to send any legislative details. In the event of the formation of the government, the legislative term will turn into a parliamentary activity."

Askar pointed out that "the political differences are less compared to the previous parliamentary sessions, which enhances the hope of enacting laws, especially the budget for the next year, and even the introduction of the oil and gas law to end the file of selling the oil of the Kurdistan region of Iraq."   

LINK

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Tivon:  Remember, I told you guys that Al-Kazemi was lining up the bowling pins? I said he is positioning himself for a Blitz play. He is about to go all out. Why?

Because the EFSL has "Citizens Entitlements". And that is based on the Oil & Gas Law and the dues that come with it that Mazhar M. Saleh stated as a paragraph in the EFSL which is another reason why after the draft became a complete law was not challenged by the government.

This is probably the main reason why we have not seen a rate change. The Oil & Gas Law file once ended for good can change the course of everything in a very short period.

 That's why I think Al-Kazemi was/is waiting for the opportune time to reduce the USD price so that purchasing power can be established from the onset of the Oil & Gas Law being completely under Iraq's control.

Keep in mind that the revenue of Iraq is 95% oil. This is what will give the EFSL its real power. Why?

Because as you read from a technical expert just a day ago the markets are stabilized along with all Contracts & Procedures. The last paragraph is already talking about the budget for next year. Why not this year? Because the EFSL will clear the slate for Iraq this year.

The areas list below is the targeted focus before a 2023 Budget is open. Because that will be for everything new.

The EFSL is for everything that has been stalled. Which includes the Oil & Gas. 

Reconstruction? Pending.

Investment Projects? Done.

Payment to Farmers? Pending.

Electric Dept To Iran? Done.

Ration Cards? Done.

Final Accounts? Done.

Reducing Unemployment? Pending. 

Oil & Gas? Pending.

Citizens Entitlements? Pending.

Social Protection? Pending. 

Raising the Value of the IQD? Pending. 

Import & Exports? Done.

Agriculture? Pending.

Corruption Files? Pending.

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Tivon:  People Al-Kazemi is spelling it out for. All he wants is the cooperation. That's all he needs to achieve everything. Reconstruction, Purchasing Power, Investment Projects, etc.

This man is trying his hardest to make it clear that he wants everything for Iraqi citizens now. Not waiting on the GOI or a budget they don't even have time to entertain. When we are talking about the EFSL, we are talking about something that has full 100% capability to proceed with everything promised to the citizens.

This is not my interpretation of anything. You hearing it from the man himself. Along with other prominent figures. Now don't get me wrong if it wasn't for the EFSL being created. I would agree with some minds here that we need a fully seated government. And a 2022 Budget to accompany that government.

But times have changed since about three or four months ago. We are no longer on that timeline. Because as you can see it's a split between two dimensions now. In one reality you have political figures still trying to drum up enthusiasm about the 2022 Budget and a GOI. On the other you have Al-Kazemi with a seated cabinet working outside of the government with the EFSL where he is using the stipulations in the constitution to carry the EFSL.

And it is working as evident to what the Federal Court made Kurdistan do with the Oil contracts. What you seen today makes that very clear. Especially with Al-Kazemi visiting Mosul. I mean he spoke with a German Ambassador for God's sake about Reconstruction in liberated areas.

How is it that this is not clear enough that the guy has all the power neccessary to complete the reforms without a GOI? He is doing it now. IMO

Al-Kazemi: He added, "Our people and our sons deserve a lot, and they have experienced difficulties, and it is time to intensify efforts to serve them, and remove all obstacles," noting that "many obstacles and problems can be resolved in cooperation and coordination in order to facilitate procedures and speed up work mechanisms."

Al-Kazemi continued, "The country is witnessing a specific political situation, but this should not prevent us from working in the service of our people with full force and without any hesitation." He called on "political forces to assume their national responsibility in resolving the political crisis," declaring that "this government is continuing its duty vigorously, and it will not delay in providing service to our people with all its capabilities."

Samson:  Alia Nassif comments on the revenues achieved by customs in Iraq

8th July, 2022

Representative Alia Nassif described the high revenues achieved by the Customs Authority last June as "paving the way for saving Iraq from the rentier economy dependent on oil

And she said in a statement today: "The Customs Authority set a record compared to the months of June in previous years, as its revenues amounted to more than 99 billion dinars, despite the exemption of food and construction materials from customs duties in accordance with the decision of the Council of Ministers

She added: "We have always called on the concerned authorities during the previous years to monitor the work of the border crossings and to advance this important sector, because it will become one of the main sources of income for the people. And a real estate thief who will be summoned successively .. including the honest and successful in his work,” indicating that “the Customs Authority, after paying attention to it and examining the work of the outlets and their management by professional elements, returned their revenues to add strength to the Iraqi economy

Nassif indicated: "These revenues will soon contribute to reducing the risks of the rentier economy dependent on oil exports and contribute to the advancement of the rest of the important sectors if these funds are used correctly   LINK

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MilitiaMan:  To add to the hard work and good analysis of Tivon, there is more to the story. That 95% oil revenues is going to be batched by the borders, liquid natural gas,   mining, tourism, etc.. The size of the money flow is going to be staggering. Everyone knows it.. Even those that read this forum  know we know it and well. imo.. ~ MM

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Tivon:  Militia-Man,  It's mind boggling that while all of this is happening people are still waiting on the formation of the GOI when Al-Kazemi is waiting on cooperation of the Executive & Legislative branches to complete everything for the citizens now using the now published EFSL that officially has legal authority supported by the constitution to not only reduce the USD rate but also to terminate the oil contracts with Kurdistan.

I have yet to find any statement from Al-Kazemi that in order to give the citizens everything they need requires a seated government and that he should wait to implement reforms. Please if anyone can find it I implore you to share it. I posted multiple statements from those officials supporting that notion. They just told you today that they basically don't have time to form the GOI or pass a budget. So what is their solution? Pass something that will support the EFSL. I called this 3 days ago. 

Not conjecture. Clare is on fire with posting articles that align with my analysis on the matter. We are good. Al-Zamili is running the show. IMO  ~ Tivon

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MilitiaMan:  We are in a good space. As you well know that on the 23rd the earliest possible session to include the issue of reducing the price of the dollar was likely done same. We know for the Supreme Judicial Council that the "necessary powers" have been granted to Kahdimi and we see evidence of that with the EFSL published in the Gazette this last week. So, yes your not likely to be wrong, as the CBI has been imo given the green light. They have had stellar reports form the World Bank and IMF in recent past as well. So Kahdimi has his advisor today tell us the story.. I like it.. Thanks for you hard work.. Well done.. ~ MM 

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" "During the double financial and health crisis that our country was subjected to in 2020, the international community felt Iraq's need for international aid to reform and reorganize the economy in order to achieve sustainable development and combat decline and corruption, so it was formed in London in the middle of the year 2020, what was called (The Iraq Economic Contact Group (IECG) (composed of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the European Union, and the Group of Seven major industrial countries).

He continued: "The aforementioned contact group expressed its willingness to support financial and economic reform projects in our country and to reorganize the financing, production and governance sectors, and the white paper was the result of that cooperation," he concluded by saying: "I see that Iraq has many serious and promising opportunities to benefit from the intentions of the international community." Positively towards achieving reform projects and economic progress in Iraq."  LINK 

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"Based on Article (61 Seventh-c) of the Iraqi constitution and Article (56) of the internal system, please include the issue of reducing the price of the dollar in the earliest possible session, according to constitutional reasons, and because of the economic repercussions that are taking place in the country and the collapse of the currency and its impact on  Iraqi citizen.  "LINK

Some "Vietnam News" Posted by Samson at KTFA 7-8-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  Global manufacturers gradually focus on Vietnam

1st July, 2022

Many manufacturers in the global supply chain of major firms are gradually focusing on Việt Nam.

In particular, Apple has moved 11 factories of Taiwanese enterprises in its supply chain to Việt Nam.

Many other firms such as Foxconn, Luxshare, Pegatron, and Wistron are also expanding their production facilities in Việt Nam.

This information was shared at a conference on the situation and proposed tasks and solutions to remove difficulties and support production and business in the last six months of this year, organised by the Ministry of Planning and Investment this week.

Samsung built its largest research and development centre in Southeast Asia worth US$220 million in Hà Nội and is also planning to continue to expand factories in the northern provinces of Bắc Ninh and Thái Nguyên.

Earlier this year, Đồng Nai Province granted investment licences for two $100 million projects of a component supplier for Samsung, Hansol Electronics Việt Nam (South Korea).

To seize the opportunity, Đỗ Thị Thúy Hương, Vice President of the Việt Nam Association of Supporting Industries (VASI), proposed the Government have large-scale selective policies to attract big foreign groups to Việt Nam. However, these policies must be accompanied by "clean" production conditions, environmental protection and no discharge into the environment, she noted.

Hương also recommended several issues, such as more supportive policies to improve labour quality and authorities needing to create more favourable conditions for businesses to access credit support policies of the Government. 

Previously, Hương said that the root cause of the shifting trends of supply chains to Việt Nam largely came from China's relatively developed electronics and information technology industry. She explained that they had grown to more than just assembling in the global supply chain.

Việt Nam was a country quite similar to China in electronic manufacturing activities, both in terms of labour and geographical location, infrastructure, and logistics and would be very suitable to receive capital flows, which was also a technological shift.

The VASI Vice President said that, regarding the attraction of large foreign companies, in the early stages, when domestic enterprises were still weak, FDI should be allowed in but must be regulated.

It was necessary to have the hand of the State not only to support foreign businesses but also to have an incubator to support Vietnamese businesses so that they were capable of receiving technology and gradually mastering the technology to have the ability to compete and keep in domestic market, she added. If enterprises were not strong enough, they could not protect their "soft resources," which was their market, said Hương.    L

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Samson:  International organizations hail Vietnam’s economic achievements

8th July, 2022

HSBC has raised its forecast for Việt Nam’s economic growth this year to 6.9 per cent, from the previous prediction of 6.6 per cent, which is possibly the fastest pace in the region.

In the Việt Nam At A Glance report in July, HSBC Global Research noted that decreasing risks posed by the Omicron variant and eased restrictions have paved the way for Việt Nam to return to normality.

Thanks to widespread recovery, the country recorded an impressive GDP growth rate of 7.7 per cent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year. The service sector, which has suffered severe economic impacts, have bounced back strongly while manufacturing has continued growing and exports hit historic highs. However, the growth forecast for 2023 was revised down to 6.3 per cent from 6.7 per cent due to growing risks, especially in the energy sector, according to the bank.

HSBC Global Research pointed out growing impacts of soaring energy prices. Escalating goods prices have led to a trade deficit in Q2 and may worsen the current account situation, which is already pessimistic. On the other hand, though household consumption has recovered steadily, people’s budgets may suffer from high oil prices, thus decelerating the recent recovery speed.

Việt Nam’s inflation is forecast to stand at about 3.5 per cent this year, but it may surpass the ceiling of 4 per cent between Q4 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023, requiring the State Bank of Vietnam to begin normalising monetary policy.

According to the report, Việt Nam has benefited from its economy reopening, and domestic demand has returned while external drivers remain favourable. However, it is necessary to stay alert to increasing growth risks, especially those posed by surging energy prices.

Meanwhile, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highly valued Việt Nam’s policy support to cushion the impact of COVID-19 in tandem with successful maintenance of fiscal, external, and financial stability and an impressive vaccination rollout.

In a press release following a recent consultation with Việt Nam, the IMF Executive Board said a recovery is underway and high frequency indicators point to stronger momentum going into 2022, with rising retail sales, industrial production, and firm entry. Growth is expected to reach 6 per cent in 2022 as activity normalisation continues and the programme for recovery and development is implemented. However, the recovery of the labour market is lagging as underemployment remains high. While inflation has recently picked up due to rising commodity prices and supply-chain disruptions, it remains well below the central bank’s inflation ceiling.

The Executive Board called for agile policy making, proactively adjusted to the pace of the recovery and evolution of risks. They also underscored the need for fiscal policy to take the lead and be flexibly adjusted to evolving economic conditions. They welcomed the programme for recovery and development and emphasised the importance of targeting, spending efficiency, and steadfast implementation.

The IMF executive board stressed the need for monetary policy to be nimble and vigilant of inflationary risks. They also emphasised the importance of addressing problem loans, normalising regulatory forbearance in a timely fashion, and closely monitoring real estate sector risks.

They welcomed Việt Nam's recent steps towards greater exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy modernisation and encouraged continued efforts in this direction. The board stressed the importance of structural reforms to improve the business environment, enhance productivity, and boost potential growth. They also praised Việt Nam’s ambitious environmental agenda and urged the translation of targets into concrete policy actions.   LINK

Samson:  Vietnam to do well economically this year and the next: AMRO

6th July, 2022

Việt Nam is expected to come out second only to the Philippines in terms of projected GDP for 2022 and on top for 2023, according to a recent Quarterly Update of the ASEAN +3 Regional Economic Outlook.

Specifically, the country was projected to achieve a growth rate of 6.3 per cent this year and 6.5 per cent next year, well above the region-wide figures which were estimated at 4.3 per cent and 4.9 per cent respectively.

Compared to the previous update, Vietnamese growth rates were revised downwards to reflect the lower growth forecasts for China and the US, its major trade partners. The country was expected to top the list with growth rates of 6.5 per cent and 7.0 per cent in the April update.

“Việt Nam is a much more open economy and very exposed to the US and Chinese economies. Because we are expecting reductions in growth rates in these countries and the expected slowdown would affect its external demand, we have to shift down projected growth rates for Việt Nam," said Hoe Ee Khor, chief economist of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

The Russian military operations in Ukraine have been pushing up commodity prices and global inflation. Relentless cost-push pressure, coupled with firming domestic demand, is expected to drive regional inflation higher this year, at 5.2 per cent.

Regional inflation is projected to moderate to 2.8 per cent in 2023 as tight monetary policy taken by various economies will take effect and the pandemic is showing signs of receding. 

AMRO expects that Việt Nam will keep inflation rates well below 4 per cent by means of price control. It estimates the figures at 3.5 per cent in 2022 and 3.3 per cent in 2023.    

"Việt Nam has a fiscal base to be able to keep prices down and afford subsidies for now. At the same time, it can also use fiscal policy to stimulate the economy. There is a need for infrastructure investments in the country, so it can pump prime the economy to make domestic demand stronger," the chief economist added.

A sharper deceleration in China's consumption and realty activities, according to AMRO, would significantly drag down the economy, with spillovers that would further undermine regional outlook. 

Additionally, mounting prices in the US have caused the Federal Reserve to adopt contractual monetary policy at a faster pace than expected, raising concerns of an imminent recession. Financial investors have switched to safe assets and risk aversion has spiked, leading to capital outflows from emerging markets. "Navigating this formidable environment, ASEAN+3 policymakers are now facing difficult policy trade-offs as they balance the need to sustain the growth momentum while containing the inflationary pressure," Khor added.

Japan, Korea and Myanmar are expected to enjoy growth rates of less than 3 per cent this year, whereas Việt Nam and the Philippines will be riding high with growth rates of over 6 per cent. The other eight countries fall between 3 and 6 per cent.

Regarding inflation, China and Japan are expected to do well with inflation rates kept under 3 per cent in 2022. Meanwhile, Thailand, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia will have their rates surpass 6 per cent. The other seven countries fall between the two ends.  LINK

Q&A With Tivon at KTFA Thursday Night 7-7-2022

KTFA:

Popeye7:   Imo, and just to set the record straight on this. the CBI does not have to wait on the next legislative session to actually change the rate of the dinar?... It would seem to me that in order for this supplemental food budget law to be be effective, the rate would have to change first?... Which is what the citizens are waiting for because their purchasing power is essentially very poor at the moment leading into this holiday period of Eid...

This would help the shops, and business's within Iraq if change were to occur before this holiday period begins on the 9th (this Saturday)....

After the holiday, once the next session of government proceeds, the monies from this ESFL will be divvied out with the brand new rate already enforced?... I am asking because it would seem the rate would have to go first before ESFL is fully implemented... Imo... Thanks MM, Tivon, Clare, and all who are giving info, and their own personal insight in this... 

Popeye7:  I guess another question would be, what exactly needs to be done in the next session if a change in the dinar is to be made after it begins?... What is the CBI waiting on?... I am not being impatient at all... Just curious as to what needs to be accomplished during this next session if the ESFL law has already been Gazetted... We should be good to go, or am I missing something?... God's timing of course, but from a physical perspective, just curious why the wait?... Imo.

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Tivon:  Law, Code, Policies and the Constitution of Iraq precedes any theories as to what they need or require in order to reinstate their currency. I am going on what is written. Opinions aside If it's not in writing it doesn't exist.

It doesn't matter what our favorite intel source says. I have been kicked off a few blog sites. When I decided to challenge one pervading thought as to how things might be as opposed to what actually was at that time I was deemed problematic. One person named _______who didn't approve of how I presented my information because it called into question his own. He banned me because none of it couldn't be refuted.

 I actually got it from an official source. This is not about what can be said. But what can be proven. If Al-Kazemi wants the USD price reduced according to what is stipulated in the Constitution at the earliest possible time I am going to go with his expertise given the basis of which many things that are stated.

There is no land where man reigns over Law & Order. Guys you do know in 2018 Walkingstick stated a seated GOI is in place right? Well tell me why a rate was not released? This is why I constantly ask do you all really pay attention. Because it seems to me Walkingstick and I share the same thoughts as to what a seated government is.

So if we have a seated caretaker government now what does that tell you about what Al-Kazemi can do given what just passed as a supplementary budget or emergency law that constitutionally requires Al-Kazemi to address the USD rate at the earliest possible session?

Frank is also on record saying the same. Seems to me Al-Kazemi is taking his authority up a notch by requesting the USD rate be reduced according to Article 61 Seventh-C of the Constitution that grants him the power as a current government to execute reforms.

Since people like to reference Walkingstick so much I figured I show my support and post his statements for you. How do you follow WS this long and not know he said the below  statements about the current seated government?  Thank me later. IMO

September 4th, 2018

Walkingstick: A seated and functioning GOI is in place, I am speaking of parliament... blocs, managed by heads of blocs with their own self interests in mind...I changed the verbiage to eliminate confusion.

March 5th 2020

Walkingstick: I, was not… I have stated numerous times over the years, exactly.. what requirements were needed to successfully launch the RI… My response was to some who were under the assumption no form of government was in place.. I was alluding to the fact, although a caretaker government… It is, in fact.. a seated and government… An executive branch, PM and Cabinet…Although, unable to propose bills to parliament… They can and continue to issue directives.

Popeye7:  Imo, Hey Tivon, appreciate your input... Just read your post, and am curious... Do you think that the CBI has to wait for the next session after EID to release the rate, or can it be done prior?... Are we in anytime mode, or does PM Kazemi have to address this issue in the next session?... I am just trying to bring clarity in my own mind...

Because of what I had mentioned concerning the exchange rate in my prior post... Why not release it now for the sake of the Iraqi folks... But if not, what is the CBI waiting on since the supplemental budget law has been passed, and the government, caretaker, or not, is seated... Thanks again...

PS... The CBI does not need permission from Kazemi to raise the rate of the dinar of course... So by waiting for the next session after EID, are they showing solidarity by Kazemi bringing it to the forefront, and addressing it... Then it will be shown everyone is in lockstep with one another?... 

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Tivon:  Legally I presume a legislative session would be the appropriate time to address something of that nature. According to the Constitution. The CBI is an independent entity. So whoever weilds the power current political power which is Al-Kazemi due to the EFSL. Can request of the CBI to issue a decision on the rate. A legislative session is a special meeting of the legislature called by the governor or by the legislature over a specific subject matter. The subject being rate, oil, or employment. This is also called a extraordinary session. It's just being in alignment with the law. So of course the CBI will act in accordance to what stipulates the appropriate authority to demand a reduction in the USD. IMO

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Popeye7:  So wouldn't this trigger a run on the dinar by investors possibly if done in this fashion, rather than when anyone would least expect it?... I have read, and heard several opinions on this matter concerning the when of this, and that is why I was asking... Not asking for a specific date, but again trying figure out if they are out for the best interests of the people, why the wait to pull the proverbial trigger?... But I guess it goes back to the fact there more than likely is a specific date to this, and we are heading in that direction with every day that pass's... Thanks again.. Much appreciated... 

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Tivon:  Remember the story of the guy who got caught at the airport with a bag full of Dinars? He was arrested right? You are only allowed to have a certain amount at the airport anyway. A run on Dinar doesn't exist simply because what is available is calculated and recorded before it even touches the hand of the vendors or the web store. That is not out concern. Who cares? That's their problem. I am not trying micromanage what they might or will do if speculators run wild. We don't work for the CBI so that is inconsequential to us. The request to change it vs when the CBI will do it are two different things because they do not have to telegraph either move. IMO

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Suzie:  and to be international, fully article 8 compliant as deemed by the IMF, looks like they're close.....any thoughts?....

Tivon:  Suzie, if the IQD goes international wouldn't they be Article 8 Compliant by default? I think so. What about you? And yes I would like to believe we are close now that things are locked in with the Gazette. IMO