"Tidbits From TNT" Wednesday AM 5-4-2022

May 4

TNT:

Tishwash: An informed source: Al-Sadr will launch an initiative to end the political blockage within the next 48 hours

A source close to the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, said that the latter will launch his initiative within two days to end the blockage in the political process and delay the formation of the government.

The source added that al-Sadr stressed today, during a meeting with members of the Sadrist bloc, the need to continue oversight and legislative work. link

Tishwash: In light of the blockage... Iraq is on a hot plate and warnings of an unprecedented wave of popular anger

Today, Wednesday, political analyst Ali Al-Baydar confirmed that Iraq has become a .hot slate, and there are signs of many crises that may afflict the country

Al-Baydar said in a statement to (Baghdad Today), "In terms of security, there are actual and worrying movements of ISIS members, and the government must deal ".with them with great caution

He added, "There are also movements by the Kurdistan Workers' Party, outlaw gangs ".and organized crime gangs

And he indicated that "the economic crisis is also ravaging the country, as the government has not taken initiatives to solve these crises, and this increases the state of anger in the Iraqi street, as it is possible that the popular reaction will be ".more violent this time than the previous ones link

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Tishwash: Adviser to the Iraqi Prime Minister: Political ambiguity is pushing the economy toward the abyss

Mazhar Saleh believes that the absence of the 2022 budget has deprived the country of development programs... and the rise in oil prices is "beneficial and harmful"

he financial advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, reviewed the most prominent effects of the current political situation on the economy, and said in an interview with “The Independent Arabia” that Iraq is at a crossroads, the first is the path of economic development in general, human development and investment in people in particular, and the second is the exploitation of economic growth itself for those energies Humanity is a productive force, not a consumer.

Saleh explained that the uncertainty of the country's political future pushes the economic community, especially investors, to a negative state of signs of "uncertainty", deflation, and a failure to initiate new productive activities . He added, "It is something that represents one of the serious challenges facing the business environment that aspires to stability. The longer the political crisis continues, the lower the average economic growth, especially in the absence of a public budget law for the year 2022 that deprives the country of development programs."

Regarding the problems of increasing population growth, Salih says, "Iraq is among the countries with high annual population growth at 2.6 percent annually, meaning that this percentage adds one million people annually to the total population. Despite this, I see that the population increase is within the framework of a human development program Promising for the next 10 years, it is the nation's wealth and the basis of its renaissance."

Crossroads

Adviser to the Prime Minister believes that “Iraq is at a crossroads, the first is to spread economic development in general, human development and investment in people in particular, and the second is to benefit from economic growth itself from those human energies as a productive force, not a consumer, whose presence helps support production activities if the country aspires to achieve growth Annually in the non-oil GDP by no less than seven percent annually, and this level of growth leads to prosperity and a doubling of the level of per capita income within 10 years,” noting that “Iraq is not facing a population explosion as some imagine, but rather a human wealth.” The situation requires that it be well invested immediately by providing supplies of health, education and infrastructure.”

On the pros and cons of rising oil prices on Iraq, Salih revealed that “the Iraqi economy faces two contradictory positions. The first is positive, represented in the prosperity of Iraq’s financial leverage due to the rise in crude oil prices in the world, as the revenues of last March exceeded 11 billion dollars, which are inflows of important cash in budget revenues.

As for the second contradictory position, according to Saleh, it is summed up in the rise in food prices in the world, and as long as Iraq is a net repository of food and at rates up to 80 percent of the country’s needs, the pressure on prices on the standard of living has become a pressure to accelerate emergency support programs for food security, and that According to the emergency food security and development bill currently before Parliament, grain prices rose to nearly 40 percent over their averages during the past year.

Absence of market institutions

On the role of the private sector in developing the performance of the economy at the current stage, Saleh says, "There is almost an absence of regulated or legal market institutions, and 65 percent of the private sector falls within the gray area in terms of the ambiguity of its operations or being unknown to taxes, banks and many state control institutions. Therefore, the rise of the private sector, which still contributes 37 percent of Iraq's GDP, needs to unleash its capabilities in economic diversification according to pivotal policies that support the market and private activity.

Among those policies that support the private sector, according to Saleh, are building market institutions and facilitating the opening and closing procedures for companies’ licensing without any costs, as well as the financing partnership between the state and the market by creating development funds that grant government loans to citizens in a facilitating and supportive manner, and finally including workers in the private sector with a unified retirement fund It is run by the state on a homogeneous basis. He added, "Then we will guarantee an active role in market activity that may exceed 50 percent of the private sector's contribution to the GDP."

Regarding his evaluation of Iraq’s monetary policy and the effects of the decision to reduce the dollar if applied, Saleh acknowledged that “the decision to reduce the exchange rate helped provide resources for the public budget that may have exceeded 20 trillion dinars in the year 2021 and filled a dangerous deficit in public expenditures, but monetary policy remains monitors purchasing power.” For the dinar through inflation indicators, it is necessary to exploit the rise in oil prices, achieve important financial returns and a good accumulation in the Central Bank’s foreign currency reserves, and manage all this with caution to maintain the stability of the general level of prices.

Effects of the Russian War

Salih revealed the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the Iraqi economy by saying, "The lack of energy supplies and the fear that the flow of Russian oil and gas to Europe will stumble on a regular basis due to the Russian war. The West is the main consumer of Russian supplies, and therefore fuel prices will worsen and Iraq's oil revenues will increase, but in In return, the country will be subjected to tremendous pressure due to the impact of imported inflation and high burdens on public finances to protect food security, which is a contradictory equation between harvesting the positives of the war on the energy issue and its negatives on the issue of global inflation, which hits the interests and large social and humanitarian spaces of the people. link

Mot: . oooooooooooooh lordy!! - the Things they come up with!! ~~~~~~~~