"Tidbits From TNT" Tuesday Morning 4-26-2022

TNT:

Tishwash:  Al-Kazemi’s advisor expects 3 gains for Iraq after meeting with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank

Al-Jubouri, technical advisor to the Prime Minister, identified the most important proposed projects, which are expected to be discussed with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank during an upcoming meeting in Baghdad, and 3 of the gains expected to be made by Iraq, while he explained the extent of investment in surplus oil prices in implementing the support law. Emergency Food Security and Development.

Al-Jubouri told Al-Iraqiya News and followed by the Iraqi News Agency (INA), that "the recent World Bank report indicated that there had been positive growth in the Iraqi economy, in both its oil and non-oil parts, and this came after economic reforms through corrective steps taken by the current government and the previous parliament."

He added, touching on the current problems that the economy suffers from, that "the inflation rate was 6% in 2020, and in the last two years it rose to 7.9%, and the reasons for this are the first of which is the increase in the monetary mass offered in the Iraqi market, which rose from 51 trillion dinars to 76 trillion, an increase of 25 trillion dinars, and the second reason is the increase in the dollar's exchange rate against the dinar."

He pointed out that "the unemployment problem has also risen to 12.7%, due to the outbreak of the Corona pandemic and the suspension of some production plants," noting that "the revenues generated as a result of high revenues can address the problems of inflation and unemployment if invested correctly."

On the upcoming meeting that government officials will hold in Baghdad with representatives of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, al-Jubouri said that “the two parties were briefed on government reforms represented in the white paper and had valuable observations, which were not binding on the Iraqi government, and their observations are viewed by international institutions into consideration, especially with regard to granting loans and investments.

He stressed that "the World Bank provides loans at a zero interest rate and a repayment period of more than twenty years to the Iraqi government in order to support the investment budget and does not grant any loans to the operating budget such as salaries and expenses."

He pointed out that "Iraq needs the implementation of new projects in the field of rail linkage and new roads, the completion of the great port of Faw and the development of airports, and these are plans that can be supported by the World Bank after its last positive report."

He pointed out that "the World Bank will study these plans after they are presented by the Iraqi side at the meeting, and perhaps finance part of them, and this is a great gain for Iraq because it will push the wheel of development, increase job opportunities and create productive projects."

Regarding the extent of investment of the financial mass achieved from the increase in oil imports in the Emergency Support Law for Food Security and Development, Al-Jubouri explained, “It will go to strengthen the vocabulary of the ration card, support farmers and peasants, cover the costs of oil production, import electric power and gas, and pay off Iraq’s debt, and 30% of it will go to developmental investment projects. "

In its report issued during the current month of April, the World Bank confirmed that Iraq ranked first in the Arab world with the largest growth in GDP and per capita for the year 2022.

The World Bank report expected that "Iraq's gross domestic product will grow during the current year by 8.9 percent, surpassing the rest of the Arab countries, including Qatar, which is expected to grow by 4.9 percent, Saudi Arabia 7 percent, Kuwait 5.7 percent, UAE 4.9 percent, Algeria 3.2 percent, Egypt 5.5 percent, and Jordan." 2.3 percent and Morocco 4.3 percent.

He added, "The growth of Iraq's GDP will be 4.5 percent, similar to Qatar, and it will rise in Egypt to 5 percent, Saudi Arabia will have 3.8 percent, Kuwait 3.6 percent, Algeria 1.3 percent, Tunisia 3.5 percent, and Jordan 2.3 percent." 
The World Bank report indicated that "Iraq will also be the highest among the Arab countries in terms of per capita GDP growth during 2022, at 6.3 percent, while Saudi Arabia's per capita growth will be 5.5 percent, Kuwait 4.5 percent, Bahrain 1.4 percent, Egypt 3.6 percent, and Qatar." 4.5 percent, while Morocco will decrease 0.1 percent.   link

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Tishwash:  Experts: The emergency support law revives the Iraqi economy (04/26)

Experts and specialists considered the emergency support law for food security and development "important" in the absence and absence of a budget during the current year 2022, stressing that it (the law) will revive the Iraqi economy, coinciding with the high selling prices of crude oil in global markets.

The consultant in industrial development and investment, Amer Al-Jawahiri, told Al-Sabah: “In 2020, there was suffering in paying employees’ salaries, and a special law was issued through which the central bank was borrowed, meaning that the central bank is asking for a large amount of internal debt at the present time. To stay away from these matters in Iraq, we need a vision, strategies, policies and plans to implement those policies and not return to debt.”

He added, "What is happening now from the rise in crude oil prices, and the absence of a budget, calls for investing the financial surplus, especially since expectations indicate that oil prices will remain high during the current year 2022," noting that "whether there is a budget or not, there will be an abundance Finance, and the Food Security and Development Law takes this matter into consideration and finds solutions for it." 

The government recently submitted a draft law on emergency support for food security and development to the House of Representatives after negotiations between the political forces faltered and there was no agreement on forming the new government, which led to the absence of a budget for the current year so far, with expectations that this will continue differences. 

Al-Jawahiri pointed out that there is an "indication in the text of Article 1 of the draft law (emergency support for food security and development), which stipulates that the Ministry of Finance will establish an account called Supporting Food Security and Development, Financial Precaution and Poverty Alleviation, and this account could be the nucleus of a sovereign fund, and this The nucleus can be spent through it from a special field in this account, and it can be divided into two parts, because the law will be to keep things in order in the absence of a budget,”

Noting that Article 3 II mentions that there are sums of money in this account that are distributed among the ongoing, suspended and lagging projects, either Paragraph 2 of Article 3 Secondly, states that sums of money should be allocated to new service projects necessary for governorates that are not organized in a region.

Many strategies

And he continued, "In this case, this law can be developed and a special account for projects can be established, and this will be the nucleus for the future even in the presence of a budget, that is, it can be divided into a law later, because this law (emergency law) ends when preparing the budget, but part of this account can be taken.

To be the nucleus of the sovereign fund, the funds are directed to it, in order to work on the visionary direction, especially since there are many strategies, namely, how to implement large and giant projects through these funds that contribute to strengthening infrastructure and diversifying the economy. The Parliament’s Finance Committee, headed by Representative Hassan Al-Kaabi, hosted the Ministers of Finance, Trade, Planning and Agriculture, and several ministers and other officials, to discuss the merits of the Emergency Support Law, Food Security and Development and the necessary amendments thereto, how to distribute the necessary allocations for projects, and emphasizing the deletion of the article related to borrowing in light of the financial abundance.

diversification of the economy

The consultant continued: "The diversification of the economy is carried out through important projects such as investing primary resources such as chemical fertilizers and petrochemical industries, investing gas and other oil derivatives, in addition to investing phosphates and sulfur, and investing in the Al-Faw economic zone. It is possible to benefit from government funds and other investments, and direct them towards optimal investment." ". 

Al-Jawahiri stressed "the need of each governorate for strategic projects that take into account the geographical spatial advantage while providing primary natural resources, as they can contribute to a qualitative economic shift for the governorate, in addition to projects related to tourism by paying attention to archaeological and heritage sites through which tourists are attracted inward to enhance Revenues".   link

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Tishwash:  Oil prices are rising again today, Tuesday, after falling sharply in the previous session

Oil prices opened higher on Tuesday, after dropping sharply in the previous session on concerns that continued COVID-19 lockdowns in China would affect demand and with the US dollar hitting a two-year high.

Brent crude futures were at $103.51, up 1.23 cents, or 1.20 percent, and US West Texas Intermediate contracts rose to $99.43, up 89 cents, or 0.90 percent, at 04:48 GMT.

Both contracts settled down about 4% on Monday, with Brent dropping as much as $7 a barrel in the session, and WTI down nearly $6 a barrel.

China's COVID lockdowns in Shanghai have entered their fourth week. Meanwhile, requests for mass testing, including in Beijing's largest shopping district, have raised fears of other Shanghai-style lockdowns.

The dollar also hit a two-year high on Monday, making oil more expensive for other currency holders.

Conversely, the oil market remains tight as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, together called OPEC+, struggle to meet their production targets with US crude stocks falling sharply in the week ending April 15   llink

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