Tivon and KTFA Members "CBI, EFSL, Budget and more" 7-7-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  Khazali Clarifies The Possibility Of Passing The Budget During The Era Of The Caretaker Government

7th July, 2022 Legal expert Raqiah Al-Khazali explained the possibility of passing the 2022 budget by Parliament in light of the presence of the caretaker government in power.

Khazali told "Al-Maalouma", that "the current government is a caretaker and cannot send a budget to Parliament for its legislation, because it does not have the legal right to raise bills, including the budget."

She added that "passing the budget is by going towards forming the new government, which in turn studies the budget and submits it to Parliament for a vote."

And she indicated that "the budget can be legislated during the era of the current government by voting by members of Parliament by a simple majority within the House of Representatives, and therefore these votes give the government the legal framework to raise the budget in order to vote on it."   LINK

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Tivon:  I will need you to tell us why you are so focused on passing the budget with about 5 1/2 months left. What do you need it for? Because the EFSL is or will  address the areas below this year.

The budget is not even going to be fully financed. They will only allocate 51 trillion to it. And that will be for new projects only. You might as well wait until the 2023 budget comes about.

Why is everyone trying to undercut Al-Kazemi? Let the man work his magic with the EFSL for the remainder of the year. The deadline for picking the President of The Republic has already passed. That means the GOI is currently in violation of the constitution.

You know you can't pass a budget without having a formed government. And whatever government gets seated will be the ones chosen after dissolution. Which would still leave us with who? Al-Kazemi and his cabinet.

They can't even legally form a GOI for this year. So why are you wasting energy on the budget? You know the 2022 Budget dead in the water when Maliki is trying to use it for political points. IMO

Reconstruction? Done.

Investment Projects? Done.

Payment to Farmers? Pending.

Electric Dept To Iran? Done.

Ration Cards? Done.

Final Accounts? Done.

Reducing Unemployment? Pending. 

Oil & Gas? Pending.

Citizens Entitlements? Pending.

Social Protection? Pending. 

Raising the Value of the IQD? Pending. 

Import & Exports? Done.

Agriculture? Done.

Corruption? Done.

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Wagmister:  They still need a seated government.  Fully compliant chapter 8. Dinar on the forex.  NUFF SAID….  

Tivon:  I don't know if you have been paying attention. But the CBI does not have to announce that they are Article 8. The only time we will know that is when we literally see the rate on the Forex.

Secondly even Delta back in 2018 mentioned the reason the markets along with speculators (Us) will not be tipped off in advance as to when Iraq will become Article 8 Compliant simply because it will cause manipulation in the markets by merchants, traders, or just the local market as a whole.

Maliki even mentioned the Money Mafia just a couple of days ago. Which is why things are held close to the chest. Thirdly when you look at the PDF file of the EFSL it stated that the "current government, that is exercising emergency powers have constitutional obligations to address the economic crisis.

Which means if you look at the 100 Deputies that signed on to reduce the USD exchange rate at the earliest legislative session didn't announce any requirements outside of their powers to execute the reforms that is contingent upon the government.

The formation of the government is a formality. Keep in mind it can take up to 60 days to form the government after the vote. You have to ask yourself how can Al-Kazemi request a reinstatement (USD Reduction) without waiting on the formation of the GOI?

Why hasn't he not been called out for violating any constitutional law that he can not prematurely change the exchange rate without a GOI in place first?

How was he able to get a law published in the Gazette without a formed GOI? How was he able to get Kurdistan to sign over the Oil & Gas Law without a seated GOI?

Seems to me he will keep this trend going and actually release the new rate without a formed GOI. Frank said it himself on multiple occasions that the rate can come prior to the formation of the GOI.

Well wouldn't this explain the reason of those 100 Deputies signing a contract to reduce the USD price at the earliest session which is this month.

Because they can only vote on a new government. It will still take two months to form one. Which would take us into September/October depending upon what happens next week. But the earliest legislative session starts after the holiday.

 Because if you can find any articles supporting that we need a seated GOI in order for the reinstatement we would love to see it.

Because I can not find one. If it's not in writing by any official I do not entertain it. IMO

Clare: :  Market Review: Supplementary Budget Stabilises the Market

7th July 2022  By Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Strategist of AFC Iraq Fund..

Supplementary Budget Stabilises the Market

The market, as measured by the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index, was up 3.4% for the month, and up 5.1% for the year.

The last two months of profit-taking continued into the first week of June, at which point it was halted by the passage of the supplementary budget bill on June 8th. This in turn stabilised the market, whose technical picture continues to be positive, as its two-month decline has only taken it to within the middle of its two-year up-trending channel (chart below) - an uptrend that ended a brutal multi-year bear market.

While there is the potential for the market to resume its decline, the macroeconomic fundamentals discussed here two months ago support thesis that the two-year uptrend should continue even if the upward slope moderates somewhat.

This picture contrasts favourably with the majority of global markets, which underscores Iraq's attractive risk-reward profile and diversification benefits versus these markets, especially considering that Iraq's economy, unlike most economies worldwide, is a significant beneficiary of the current high oil price environment.

Passage of the Supplementary Budget Bill

The delays in government formation, following the parliamentary elections on October 10th, meant that the current caretaker government, lacking the authority to propose a 2022 budget, was restricted to spending 1/12th of the 2021 budget on a monthly basis in 2022.

While the 1/12th spending rule allowed the government to continue funding its current expenditures (salaries, pensions, social security and the provisioning of goods and services), and some of the investment spending that was initiated in 2021; it nevertheless prevented it from fulfilling its continuing investment spending requirements. Crucially the 1/12th rule prevented the government from using the bounty of higher oil prices in alleviating the harmful effects of the sharply increasing food prices on the population.

 The supplementary budget, in combination with the 1/12th spending rule for 2021, would in effect be in lieu of a 2022 budget.

 As such the total effective budget for 2022 would be about USD 92 bn, an increase of 23% above that for 2021; and made up of the 1/12th rule spending allocation of about USD 75 bn for 2022, and the supplementary budget's spending allocation of about USD 17 bn.

The supplementary budget bill, officially called the "Emergency Food Security Support" bill, has its origins in demands by parliament for extra spending measures in response to public anger over the increased cost of living, and to public pressure for the government to translate the sharply rising oil revenues into public expenditures.

 However, the bill's passage was almost imperilled by the Federal Supreme Court (FSC) ruling, in mid-May 2022, that the government lacked the authority to present a supplementary budget bill to parliament, essentially ruling that in proposing a supplementary budget bill to parliament, it was attempting to circumvent its lack of authority to present a full budget bill. Parliament's dilemma was that although it was able to propose legislation, such legislation should not have any financial implications, which prevented it from proposing its version of the supplementary budget.

 However, the political class's ingenious solution was arguing that if a proposed legislation was not objected to by the government, then it can propose legislation with financial implications - which it did by legislating its own version of the supplementary budget bil, which was welcomed by the government.

The government has the wherewithal to fund the supplementary budget and still build a substantial budget surplus that it, or a future government, can utilise to continue pursuing expansionary budgets.

Iraq's oil export sales are estimated to be at USD 117 bn for 2022, if Brent crude prices were to average USD 100 per barrel (/bbl) for the year as discussed here. Contrasting oil export sales with estimated spending for 2022 of USD 92 bn provides an idea of the expected budget surplus after accounting for the government's non-oil revenues as well. Iraq's extreme leverage to oil is manifested in the translation of every USD 1/bbl change in Brent's average price for the year, into about USD 1 bn in oil export sales, and as such in the current high oil prices environment, there is an upside to Iraq's oil export sales estimates.

Given that the year-to-date average for Brent crude is about USD 106/bbl, and that Brent future contracts imply an average of USD 111/bbl for the balance of the year, then Brent crude would average USD 109/bbl in 2022 leading to about a USD 9 bn upside to Iraq's oil export revenue estimates (chart below).

However, there is also downside to Iraq's oil export revenue estimates stemming from the inhibiting effects of higher oil and food prices on the world economy, and consequently lower global demand for oil. Magnifying these growth inhibiting effects would be the almost synchronized interest rate increases by central banks worldwide to combat the inflationary effects of the higher oil and food prices.

Conversely, the changing world order following the invasion of Ukraine, and the extent of and likely extended duration of the sanctions imposed on Russia, will alter the dynamics governing the relationship between world economic growth and global oil demand. In the short and medium terms, Western governments' need to lessen dependence on Russian oil, and to ensure their energy security, would mitigate the negative effects on global oil demand from weaker world economic growth. All of which should lead to sustained period of higher oil prices as argued here in "Oil and the Iraqi Economy", in which Iraq would be a major net beneficiary.

The passage of the supplementary budget bill in June, means that most of the USD 17 bn of increased spending would be concentrated in the second half of the year, which in the process would inject sizable liquidity into the economy in a relatively short period.

in turn, should lead to a re-acceleration in the year-over-year growth in the amount of money circulating in the economy (broad money). The timing of the supplementary budget's passing came just as broad money growth is estimated to have slowed down significantly in May 2022, as the effects of the prior stimuli were exhausted after multiple months of sharp year over year increases. All of which underscore the centrality of government spending in the economy, acting as a super-efficient mechanism for transferring oil revenues into economic activities.

Political Stalemate or Manoeuvring

The passage of the supplementary budget bill would prolong the current impasse over government formation into the near future, contributing to the political uncertainty following the surprising results of the October 2021 parliamentary elections as discussed in "Continued Momentum".

Increasing the political uncertainty, in the second week of June, the largest parliamentary bloc, and the apparent winner of the 2021 elections - the Sadrist Movement - resigned its seats in parliament in protest over the 10-month impasse over government formation.

This was seen as an opportunity for the apparent loser in the election - the Fateh Alliance - to control parliament and ultimately government formation, however emerging internal conflicts within the alliance seems to be preventing this. Nevertheless, these developments, as dramatic as they might appear to be on the surface, could be part of the continued political manoeuvring of a very tortuous government formation process.

This line of reasoning is rooted in the curious timing of the resignations immediately following the passage of the supplementary budget bill, which was championed by the resigning Sadrist Movement; and its passage in parliament was assured due to the large parliamentary block it commanded, before its resignation, with its partners.

It seems that the continuation of the status-quo, despite the continued political uncertainty, would be a preferred solution for all political parties, as it would preserve the country's ethno-sectarian parties' share of the state's resources achieved in the 2018 elections. While it's unclear if the status quo would continue for a few more weeks or months, or how it would the impasse over government formation be resolved; yet it's clear that the compromise over the passage of the supplementary budget bill would keep the wheels of government spending turning, and with that the lifeblood of the economy.

Conclusion

The market's benign response to the unexpected political developments in the month, and its continued positive reaction to the passage of the supplementary budget bill, supports the argument made above. Moreover, the market's action is similar to that following the late adoption of the 2021 budget in April 2021 - which at the time led to a continuation of its rally as discussed here in April.

While the political uncertainty would continue to dampen foreign interest in Iraq's equity market until the government's formation a few months later, Iraq's value proposition is compelling as its economy is a huge beneficiary of the high crude oil price environment. And its equity market is in the very early stages of emerging from a multi-year bear market, and as such its risk-reward profile is very attractive against most global markets.

Please click here to download Ahmed Tabaqchali's full report in pdf format.

Mr Tabaqchali (@AMTabaqchali) is the Chief Strategist of the AFC Iraq Fund, and is an experienced capital markets professional with over 25 years' experience in US and MENA markets. He is a Visiting Fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS), and a Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He is also a board member of Capital Investments, the investment banking arm of Capital Bank in Jordan.
LINK

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Tivon:   Thank you for posting this Clare. This is what I came for. What a Article. I read this with a big smile. Which further supports my line of thinking in everything I have said over the past few months regarding the EFSL.

This is iron clad air tight information. Especially when they mentioned the resignations once the EFSL was passed, voted, and published. Those were the proxies who seen the writing on the wall. Not to mention they reaffirmed the fact that the ESFL will prolong the powers of Al-Kazemi.

The only reason they are trying to form the GOI is to take the powers away from Al-Kazemi that he has gained even more so in the EFSL.

Which is why Maliki is trying to win over the citizens by promising something he has no authority to do when it comes to reducing the price of the USD in the 2022 Budget that literally requires a seated government to even think about trying to pass let alone actually open it.

Which would take the citizens into November or December before the thing is even open. But now that the EFSL is in the Gazette Al-Kazemi knows he can provide purchasing power since his cabinet now has the Oil & Gas Law. Which the Citizens Entitlements are intertwined into the EFSL.

This is why I will continue to say that Al-Kazemi is going to exercise his "Emergency Powers" and give the citizens what they want without waiting on anything bit the next legislative session to serve them their dues that are owed to them and the ministries.

Mazar M. Saleh stated as such just days ago which is why the government couldn't challenge the EFSL because of the paragraphs in it are mandatory obligations. Foreign interest in Iraq is something that will always be there. How many times have the IMF request Iraq to address the exchange rate?

Because even if they vote on a new GOI it will still take a few months to officially form one. Al-Kazemi will not wait on this because the emergency law requires him to address everything affecting the citizens independently of what is happening with the political impasse.

They literally said the government has the wherewithal to fund the supplementary budget ie (EFSL) and still build a substantial budget surplus that it, or a future government, can utilise to continue pursuing expansionary budgets. What more do you want?

They are spelling it out that there is a current government seated now. And what they do today another future government can pick up on once it is formed. Sounds like a plan to me.

Didn't they say about a month ago that the EFSL Stabilizes All Contracts & Procedures? Here you see it again in regards to the broader market. IMO

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Popeye7:  Imo, and just to set the record straight on this. the CBI does not have to wait on the next legislative session to actually change the rate of the dinar?... It would seem to me that in order for this supplemental food budget law to be be effective, the rate would have to change first?... Which is what the citizens are waiting for because their purchasing power is essentially very poor at the moment leading into this holiday period of Eid...

 This would help the shops, and business's within Iraq if change were to occur before this holiday period begins on the 9th (this Saturday).... After the holiday, once the next session of government proceeds, the monies from this ESFL will be divvied out with the brand new rate already enforced?...

I am asking because it would seem the rate would have to go first before ESFL is fully implemented... Imo... Thanks MM, Tivon, Clare, and all who are giving info, and their own personal insight in this...               

Some "Thursday News" Posted by Samson 7-7-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  Al-Atabi: 3 Files In The Next Government's Priorities, The Most Prominent Of Which Is Dealing With The Exchange Rate

6th July, 2022

The leader in the coordination framework, Turki Al-Atabi, confirmed, on Wednesday, that 3 files are among the priorities of the upcoming government, the most prominent of which is dealing with the exchange rate.

Al-Otabi said in an interview with Al-Information, that "3 important files are among the priorities of the next government, which are the removal of the US forces, the return of the dollar exchange rate, and the organization of the national economy file in a way that reduces the fluctuations of the global markets for the sale of oil and its direct impact on the budget."

Al-Otbi added, "The features of forming the government will be more clear after the end of the Eid al-Adha holiday, stressing that the political consensus will resolve all complications and will push all forces towards a broader participation in the next government." He pointed out that "from 4-6 candidates so far in the scene for the post of prime minister, but its resolution will be directly after the end of the Eid holiday."

The coordination framework is leading an accelerated political movement for the good formation of the next government.”  LINK

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Samson:  The Governor of Nineveh announces the launch of the 1000 job grades within the emergency support law

07/07/2022 16:45:44

Nineveh Governor Najm Al-Jubouri announced today, Thursday, the launch of the 1,000 job grades within the Emergency Support Law for Food Security and Development.

Al-Jubouri said in a statement that {Euphrates News} received a copy of it, that: “Based on the provisions of Article (15) of the Law on Emergency Support for Food Security and Development, which includes ((contracting with holders of bachelor’s degrees and diplomas and for all specializations (except for the medical and nursing group, as their appointment is central)) to work in the governorate departments and its local administrations at the rate of (1,000) thousand contractors for each governorate for a period of three years and a monthly salary of (300,000) three hundred thousand dinars for the purposes of training and development)).

He referred to the “conditions of submission, which consist of:

* To be a resident of Nineveh Governorate, according to the residence card issued by Nineveh Governorate

*Must have a bachelor's degree or diploma

* To pledge not to be previously appointed to any government agency

* Not to have been convicted of a misdemeanor or felony involving moral turpitude

* Not to be punished by the penalty of dismissal from office

* He must undertake the authenticity of the documents he submits

* The job applicant must verify the information before the completion of the electronic application process, as it is not possible to re-apply again.

Al-Jubouri added, "The controls include a percentage (10%) of contracting for those who are primarily the families of the martyrs, political prisoners, martyrs of the popular crowd, victims of terrorism, war operations and military mistakes, and according to the percentage established in the laws in force for the mentioned segments, and a percentage (5%) for contracting with people with needs is determined and (5%) for contracting with components.”

He noted that "adopting the criteria listed below to identify candidates for contracting in the aforementioned jobs

Graduation rate: excellent (25), very good (20), good (15), average (10), acceptable (5).

Year of Graduation: One degree is awarded for each year of graduation, with no more than (5) degrees.

Marital Status:

Unmarried, widowed, divorced, and has children (10) degrees.

Married, the husband is not appointed and he has no children (5) degrees.

Al-Jubouri concluded, "Not granting the unmarried one does not mean excluding him from the competition," calling for "not to approve any submission via any link before the issuance of this announcement."  LINK

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Samson:  The Food Security Law .. Does it guarantee all the financial surpluses achieved for Iraq?

7th July, 2022

Today, Thursday, the economic expert, Manar Al-Obaidi, commented on the fact that all financial surpluses go to finance the provisions of the Food Security Law.

Al-Obaidi said, to (Baghdad Today), that "the information that talks about the disappearance of the financial surpluses that were achieved from the rise in oil prices since the beginning of the year to finance the paragraphs of the Food Security Law is absolutely incorrect, so it is not possible to spend all of this surplus in one time."

And he indicated that "it is not a necessity or a condition that Iraq spends all the allocated matters within the provisions of the Food Security Law," explaining that "even the public budgets do not spend all the funds allocated in them, and a lot of unspent funds remain for several reasons."

And he added, "This matter will apply to the provisions of the Food Security Law, and that is why not all the financial surpluses of the past months will go to finance the provisions of the law."

It is noteworthy that the House of Representatives voted on the eighth of last month on the law of emergency support for food security in the presence of 273 deputies.   LINK

Samson:  The End Of The Year... An Expert Expects Iraq's Oil Revenues To Reach 125 Billion Dollars

6th July, 2022

Economist Nabil Jabbar expected, on Wednesday, that Iraq's financial revenues from oil until the end of this year will reach more than 125 billion dollars, which represents nearly 200% of the average revenue for previous years, while stressing that the revenues achieved during the past months are historic.

Jabbar said in an interview with the "Information" agency, "The revenues achieved during the past months are historical over the entire lifespan of the Iraqi state since 1920," noting that "the revenues achieved during 6 months from oil sales are approximately $62 billion, which is equivalent to an average of $62 billion in oil sales. full year revenue. 

He added, "Iraq has an opportunity for development by investing and employing these funds, at least for the funds generated for the next three years, during which economists expect the oil price boom to continue or improve."

The economist explained, "It is expected that the revenue until the end of the year will be more than 125 billion dollars, which represents approximately 200% of the average revenue for previous years."

Jabbar continued, saying: "Spending 40 and 50 years ago from oil revenues on infrastructure projects (bridges, roads and public buildings) is the real generation fund from which Iraqis benefited throughout that period."

The Ministry of Oil had confirmed, earlier, that “the amount of crude oil exports amounted to (101) million (390) thousand and (662) barrels, with revenues amounting to (10) billion and (609) million and (252) thousand dollars.   LINK

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Samson:  Because of the difficult financial conditions that citizens are experiencing... deflation invades Iraqi markets with the approach of Eid al-Adha

7th July, 2022

Iraqi economists confirmed that the economic crises that hit the country made this holiday not like the previous ones due to the state of deflation and the lack of financial liquidity.

A number of them indicated that the Iraqi market these days leading up to Eid al-Adha suffers a noticeable stagnation due to the economic crisis, and the deterioration of the financial conditions of citizens with the absence of the state's financial budget for 2022.

They explained that the Iraqi markets and commercial centers witnessed in previous years a great momentum by citizens in shopping during the days leading up to Eid al-Adha are to buy clothes, prepare food for sweets and more.

Economic analyst Abdul Rahman Al-Dulaimi said that the economic and social conditions and the high cost of living, as a result of the high exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar, contributed to a decrease in the purchasing power of many segments of society, in the face of a continuous stagnation in local markets since the beginning of the current year 2022.

Official figures of the Iraqi Ministry of Planning indicate, that the poverty rate in Iraq exceeded 22.5 percent.  LINK

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KTFA:

Samson:  The Independent: India's switch to Russian oil presents a real challenge to Iraq and Saudi Arabia

7th July, 2022

India's imports of crude oil from Russia rose to 21% in June, making Moscow India's second largest oil supplier, according to figures provided by data and analytics firm Kpler to The Independent. As of 2021, Russia was India's tenth largest oil supplier

Avoided by many traditional European buyers after its invasion of Ukraine, Russia's sales of cheap crude oil to India increased from zero in January and February to a record 950,000 barrels per day in June, as Delhi slipped back into recession. In June, Iraq sold about 1 million barrels per day to India, representing a marginal decrease in imports from Baghdad since May

Imports from Saudi Arabia decreased from 697,000 bpd in May to 686,000 bpd in June. With Kuwait, imports fell earlier this year with a rise of 297,000 barrels per day in February to 100,000 by April. They increased marginally to 233,000 barrels per day in June

The massive increase in Russian crude imports in the past two months means that "flows have declined from major suppliers in the Middle East - Iraq and Saudi Arabia - as well as from elsewhere," says Matt Smith, senior oil analyst at Kpler. He adds that imports have reached a "historic level" because they are the highest since the company's records began in 2013

Due to the post-pandemic recovery, India's overall demand for crude oil has swelled by about 13 percent this year, compared to 2021. India is a major refining hub, importing crude and exporting clean products such as gasoline and diesel. Thus, exports of clean products are also up - by nearly nine per cent compared to 2021, making it a lucrative deal for Delhi

For India, the opportunity to buy cheap Russian oil remains a political balance with the West. Thomas Murphy, lead analyst for South Asia security and political risks at Dragonfly, tells The Independent but he notes that the deal could lead to some political downsides in the long run as India is expected to face "increasing criticism and diplomatic pressure from both the United States and Europe" for not imposing sanctions or holding Russia accountable for human rights abuses in Ukraine even as the conflict has continued for more than four months

This major shift in the Indian oil market is expected to cause unease among the South Asian nation's allies, who have economic and trade ties that date back centuries. Harsh V Pant, professor of international relations at King's College London, tells The Independent that the Middle East will have to think carefully about its long-term strategy if its biggest buyers, India and China, gradually stop relying on them

For many Middle Eastern countries, the sale of oil is their biggest income. Approximately 65 percent of the world's oil reserves are located in the Middle East

Bilateral trade between India and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries - including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - exceeded $150 billion (£126 billion) in the fiscal year ending March 2022 but India is making the most of discounted Russian oil, he says, because it has created incentives to reach other buyers while the Middle East has significantly inflated prices during the energy crisis

“I don't think the Middle East is going to be seen as a long-term strategic challenge, but it does have temporary implications for the Middle East...If you have China and India, which are the two biggest oil importers in the Middle East, and take advantage of the Russian affluence, which may be temporary, but it does exist, and one does not even know how long the war will last.

He says that the question of whether Russia will be able to entice these Asian countries with deep discount deals when Europe completely stops buying oil from it by the end of the year will determine long-term strategies. Because he adds, just offering big discounts isn't viable in the long run

“The Middle East has to make sure if they have to continue down this path or there is a need for a recalibration in the oil markets,” he says, adding that India is an important market for the Middle East, and for Delhi, reasonable prices are a priority  LINK

MilitiaMan and Tivon" "The Rollout is Not Going To Stop Now" 7-6-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  The emergency support law enters into force .. Will the government challenge it?

30th June, 2022

Today, Thursday, Adviser to the Prime Minister for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, announced the entry into force of the Emergency Support Law, after more than fifteen days had passed since its enactment.

Saleh told (Baghdad Today), "The law stipulates that there is a group of deputies requesting the legislation of a law within the parliament that does not have a financial aspect."

He added, "The law has that aspect, but the government will not object or challenge it in the Federal Court because it needs its paragraphs and is linked to the payment of dues to ministries and citizens, such as contracts and others."

On the eighth of this month, the Iraqi parliament voted on the law on emergency support for food security as a whole, to enter its legislative recess.

The vote was attended by 273 deputies, headed by the Speaker of the Council, Muhammad al-Halbousi.    LINK

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MilitiaMan:  Interesting they tell us today that the ESFL made entry into force. One day after a publishing day for the gazette.. Banks are closed are long closed today..

Interesting too is there is a new platform for non reporting companies for the ISX. Saturday is another publish day for the gazette. The list of nondisclosure stocks will increase in value at varying levels of %s. This new platform is scheduled for this Sunday. Not totally a huge thing in of it self or is it?

They didn't mention the ISX reporting companies. If the non reporting are going to increase in value and be on the new platform, would it not be likely that the fully reporting stocks do same and interlink with the NASAQ? Would not a similar and or superior move be warranted and on the same day?

 I don't know, however, with a new exchange rate to come, there is likely to be increased values for the ISX reporting companies as well. Something that would likely need to be held more close to the chest.

I see this article as being an indicator..  Possibly a very telling one. We shall see soon enough on both angles.... imo ~ MM

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LINK
The Iraq Stock Exchange launches a platform for trading shares of undisclosed companies

29th June, 2022

The Securities Commission and the Iraq Stock Exchange announced the launch of a platform for trading shares of undisclosed joint stock companies, while identifying the companies that can trade on the platform

The authority’s media stated, in a statement, that “the authority decided to create and launch (a platform for trading the shares of undisclosed joint stock companies) Undisclosed Comp as of Sunday’s session 3/7/2022,” noting that “the rate of change in the session will be 5%, up and down from the closing price.” The share price will be left with a 50% change from the last closing price of the share in the first trading session on the platform

He added, "Trading on this platform will be for companies that the Securities Commission had previously decided to suspend from trading due to failure to provide the required disclosures, which are: Electronic Industries Company, Light Industries Company, Al Badia Public Transport Company, Modern Construction Materials Industry Company, the Iraqi Company for Land Transport and a Bank Company. Babel, Al-Batak for Financial Investments, the Modern Company for Animal Production, the North Bank Company, the Al-Khair Financial Investment Company, the Iraqi Company for the Transport of Oil Products, and any company that the Commission decides in the future to include in trading on this platform from the listed companies

He called on the above companies to "commit to provide the minimum disclosure (a report on the company's situation from the date of submitting the last financial statements to date / lawsuits / seizure and mortgage / any material events affecting the company's activity) and the experience and mechanisms will be evaluated after three months from the start of the application and take advantage of the notes indicated on it according to an evaluation and efficiency examination form

The Securities Commission and the Iraq Stock Exchange also decided to "increase the price change percentage from 10% to 15% as of 3/7/2022 for the companies listed therein in order to activate trading in the regular trading platform

The Commission stressed that "the potential shareholder and investor - bears the responsibility of buying and selling shares on the shares listed on the undisclosed companies platform - based on his investment decisions and that the brokerage companies include a note in the purchase and sale authorization and in the investor's agreement that includes the phrase that the shareholder and investor are informed of the above and acknowledges his responsibility any risks that appear later as a result of the lack of information and data - lack of disclosure - for the companies participating in this platform

He pointed out that the procedures were "based on Legislative Order No. 74 of 2004 and the instructions and rules issued by the Securities Commission and the Iraq Stock Exchange and in order to protect the rights of shareholders in joint stock companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, attract potential investors, and activate trading in securities

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MilitiaMan:  Now we know that the EFSL is done today. It is likely the main conduit for the Reforms to get up and running in earnest asap.

Most of the above undisclosed stocks are trading this week and a couple that were relisted, again today were delisted for what ever reasons of non disclosure?

The point is they are gearing to go electronic. They'll need as many as they can to be in compliance prior to going electronic but they have made good headway now.

The taxes and tariffs, customs fees, e-governance issues are all in place imo and ready for the adjustment to a new exchange rate. The EFSL having been published is likely the trigger for this trading platform to get running. The private sector is going to be a massive driver. Lets see how long it takes to see more good results.. For the matter an article 8 compliant currency.. ~ MM

Jeffrey:  Tivon So the efsl has now been published. Kazemi, like you said, " is basically running the govt" . Kazemi is for the people we have been told, so what in the world are we still waiting on? In your opinion, it's not a seated govt and if it is you believe that won't happen till next year, so I hope you are correct and we don't need the seated govt. The efsl was published today and no one is going to the bank so again what are we possibly waiting for IYO?  

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Tivon:  Jeff, if you have been paying attention I posted for the dozenth time the time table (By Al-Kazemi) you would want to hear or consider if it were to be the issue based on the Constitution where 100 Deputies signed off on reducing the USD exchange rate at the earliest legislative session which takes place next week that would make all the sense in the world on a legal basis to address the exchange rate problem that is affecting the citizens.

 It's literally in the Final Article Thread posted on June 23. He is the one that said he wants the EFSL implemented with full force to address the many areas of concern that includes Financial Stability, Services to Citizens, Reduce Poverty, Investment Projects, Citizens Entitlements, Fuel, Energy, Farmers, etc.

 I don't know how this would be accomplished without an rate change. Nobody told you that the publication on the exact same day would see a rate change. They need to be in session for that. Which takes place after the holiday.

Mazhar M. Saleh stated that the EFSL will move the wheels of the economy. The Parliament of Finance said it will help with open trade and revitalize the economy.

All of these statements did not come from me. So please do not make this about me. I can not jump start the process for Iraq. So no it's not or was never about what I personally said. I am giving you an even better alternative by providing you with the exact statements from the actual political and financial figures (Inside Iraq) that are telling you what you would want to hear.

Not me. I acted as a guide for a path I did not chart. I am not in charge of the Monetary Reforms. The EFSL as stated (Not By Me) but by Al-Jubouri, Al-Zamili, Mazhar M. Saleh, Al-Sadr, etc that the Al-Kazemi cabinet will act as a government (Using The EFSL) to jump start the economy since there is no seated government.

That's why the law was created to begin with. I don't understand how am I repeating what I thought has been understood when we all sat here and witnessed the EFSL get passed, voted, and published in the Gazette without a formed GOI. Remember Maliki did not want this law passed. Now that it has he's trying to take credit for what it will do. Go read his last statement about the USD.

 Listen, if you were to get a seated government. Which I'm sure will be technocrats with a E-Goverment. I am waiting for dissolution so Al-Kazemi can be granted full authority so we don't have to wait for the next formed government to get a rate change that Al-Kazemi will have all the power to address along with the political blocs who helped get the EFSL passed. Enjoy your day. IMO

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MilitiaMan:  Well done Tivon.. One minor thing that we are waiting on now is the CBI.. lol  ~ MM

Lets not forget the ISX has some work to do, too. They'll trade again tomorrow, then will be closed through to the 16th and open the next day.

So if they are to go electronic like we know from what we have been told in the past and present, they'll need an international rate to get the platform roaring. Like the borders have.

They are talking about compliance with international standards. Lets hope that those that seem to not understand that new systems take time and that we can clearly see that there is an evolution going on to bring the new systems into synchronization that are working in parallels.

The systems will have to communicate. Fixing anyone's frustrations, is not why we are here. Assessing the good, the bad, the indifferent, flat out right ludicrous data is not easy to do. lol So we follow along the best we can.

With many of us do is do the best we can to give and honest and supported data set. If it helps great, if not, then there is always stepping back. I for one, see no need to step back..

The roll out imo is not going to stop now that the EFSL is a law and published. ~    MM

Some "International News" Posted by Samson Wednesday PM 7-6-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  Egypt introduces the first plastic ten-pound coin

6th July, 2022

The Central Bank of Egypt launched the ten-pound plastic denomination (polymer), which was produced using the latest banknote production lines applied in the world at the new printing house in the New Administrative Capital, with an emphasis on not canceling any of the previous issues of the same denomination and continuing to work with and circulate.

The new coin is adorned with the Al-Fattah Al-Alim Mosque as one of the features of the Islamic architectural styles in the new administrative capital, as well as the Pharaonic civilization represented by the statue of Hatshepsut, which reflects the identity of the ancient Egyptian state, linking the new currency ancient Egyptian history with the modern era.

Plastic money is characterized by flexibility and strength, less thickness, and a longevity of about three times that of the current cotton paper category, in addition to being waterproof, less affected by dust, environmentally friendly and recyclable, and more resistant to pollution compared to The denominations of paper money in circulation, in addition to the difficulty of counterfeiting and counterfeiting them.

The bank said in a statement, Tuesday, that the introduction of the new currency comes within the framework of implementing the clean monetary policy and raising the quality rates of banknotes circulating in the Egyptian market, in addition to reducing the cost of printing banknotes, especially the most traded categories, in the long run due to the long life of the paper.  LINK

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Samson:  Lavrov: Vietnamese companies continue to do business in Russia despite sanctions

6th July, 2022

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that joint Vietnamese and Russian-Vietnamese companies will continue their activities in Russia and world markets despite Western sanctions.

The statement came at a press conference held by the Russian minister in the Vietnamese capital, Hanoi, after talks with Vietnamese Foreign Minister Boy Thanh Son.

He said, "The Vietnamese business sector clearly sees its interest, and wants to benefit from the further development of economic and investment relations with Russia. We have a very close and structured cooperation in the energy sector. 

There are companies involved in the production and delivery of hydrocarbons to global markets, and today we talked about the fact that these companies will continue their work.”  LINK

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Samson:  India is the largest importer of Iraqi oil during June

6th July, 2022

India topped the list of countries buying Iraqi oil last June, with a share of more than 35% of total exports

According to tankertrackers, the total exports during June amounted to more than 101 million barrels, with revenues exceeding $11 billion

India ranked first with its total imports of Iraqi oil with 36.33 million barrels, or 35.9%, with a daily average of more than one million barrels

China came after India, as it imported 23.56 percent of the total exports, at a daily rate of more than 769,000 barrels, as its oil purchases amounted to 23.8 million barrels

While America bought 11.77 million barrels from Iraq, representing 11.63% of the total June exports of Iraqi oil  LINK

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Samson:  Oil suddenly falls towards the $90...the lowest in 3 months

6th July, 2022

A new wave of losses erupted in the oil market, pushing the spot prices of the benchmark Brent and NYMEX crude to their lowest levels in 3 months, specifically from the beginning of last April

The prices of the benchmark Brent crude fell during these moments of trading today, Wednesday, to levels near 98 dollars per barrel, equivalent to losses in the range of 4 dollars per barrel

While the price of Nymex crude tumbled more than 4%, or the equivalent of $ 5 per barrel, down to levels near $ 95, which is the lowest since the beginning of last April

By the end of trading on Tuesday, the benchmark Brent crude price recorded a decline of 7.9%, or the equivalent of $8.86, at $102.77 a barrel, and the price of US Nymex crude fell by 8.2%, or $8.93, to record $99.50 a barrel  LINK

Samson:  Deputy: National Banks Are Led By Corruption Mafias, And The Central Bank Must Intervene

6th July, 2022

The representative of the Al-Fateh Alliance, Aziz Sharif Al-Mayahi, called, on Wednesday, the Central Bank of Iraq to reconsider the classification of Iraqi private banks and hold them accountable that did not provide any investment or economic benefits to Iraq, referring to some private banks that have turned into shops to issue letters of guarantee and take high and large commissions in addition to depletion of hard currency and smuggling it with false invoices.

Al-Mayahi said in a statement received by "The Information", "There are many private banks led by a number of corruption mafias, which, unfortunately, have turned into shops for issuing letters of guarantee and taking high and large commissions that burden contractors, in addition to draining hard currency and smuggling it abroad and paying forged invoices to The central bank and market speculation have not negatively affected the economic situation and harmed the Iraqi private sector and established its wealth at the expense of Iraq and its people without presenting any investment or economic plans or projects that would benefit Iraq or reduce the suffering of the poor classes.

Al-Mayahi added, “The Central Bank had previously worked on grading private banks according to what they presented, but unfortunately we did not find any of those private banks that were granted advanced degrees any benefit to the country, and they did not have any positive role during the successive economic crises that the country was ravaged, and despite this, its wealth is still growing from the country’s bounties without any account or supervision.”

He stressed "the importance of returning the central bank to all its accounts in dealing with private banks and setting stricter controls in checking invoices sent from those banks, given that the volume of exports does not equal the volume of hard currency leaving the country to sort out the lagging ones after giving them a time limit to rearrange their plans and in the event that the continued reluctance should work to withdraw licenses from them and oblige them to pay fines for the extent of the damage they caused to the Iraqi economy and the private sector.”   LINK

Tivon and KTFA Members "News and Views" Wednesday PM 7-6-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  Food Security Law Comes into Force

6th July, 2022

The Iraqi Gazette published the Emergency Support Law for Food Security and Development

After its publication in the Official Gazette, the law will have entered into force  LINK

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Samson:  The new issue of the Iraqi Gazette (4681) was issued on July 4, 2022

2022-07-06 12:39:00

Law of Emergency Support for Food Security and Development No. 2 of 2022.

- Instructions for maintaining documents in the Ministry of Defense No. (1) of 2022.

- Instructions No. (1) of 2022 "facilitating the implementation of the Ministry of Youth and Sports Law" No. (25) of 2011.

To download the issue, click here

 Those wishing to acquire a copy of the Iraqi Gazetteer can refer to the Iraqi Gazetteer Department located in Al-Salihiya/Haifa Street (Ministry of Justice Building), and obtain the required number

LINK

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Tivon:  Now we are working with something.

Do you guys remember what Mazhar M. Saleh stated back on June 8th 2022? He said the EFSL will move the wheels of the Iraqi economy correct? He also stated that the EFSL is a compensatory law. His wording here deserves a focused observation as to what that implies.

 Because in the PDF file of the law (In The Gazette) is says that this law will address Food Security, Poverty, Electric Power, Financial Stability, Services to Citizens, Raise The Standard of Living, Create Job Opportunities, and the implementation of important projects.

All of these areas are of priority and are considered an emergency and needs immediate alleviation as we all read just a couple if days ago how Iraqis cannot afford rent, clothing, or items that are usually purchased prior to the upcoming holiday in a few days.

Inflation has caused great stagnation in the market economy. How can Al-Kazemi implement this law with full force if this law will be operating for the remainder of the year if financial stability is to be attained that is not present at the current program rate?

Are they going to stop at Food Ration Cards? Because those cards are limited to meal oriented purchases.

Well we know that reconstruction of liberated areas aside from Mosul will be financed. We also know "Citizens Entitlements" which is contingent upon the HCL/Oil & Gas Law is a part of the EFSL.

Will that pass this officially at the upcoming parliament session next week where they mentioned many laws will be passed and voted on? IMO

Remember the EFSL is a part of the White Papers which is basically the Monetary Reforms.

Al-Kazemi said they have commitments within this law that they must honor. Not only that the law is supposed to create jobs and revitalize the economy. It also supposed to help by opening the economy to trade.

I find it very timely that Al-Kazemi is in talks with a German Ambassador talking about rebuilding liberated areas within the same timeframe of the EFSL being published in the Gazette. IMO

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Humble1:  I have to disagree with you on this statement Tivon, the white papers came out two years ago, before the EFSL was ever even an idea, and are not part of the white papers, all the EFSL was for is a band aid for the GOI to be able to spend some of the money the GOI is making from the high price of oil currently.  They have all this extra money coming in, and like children with money in their hands, they feel the need to spend it, some on needed projects and some will go to the corrupt, just like all government spending everywhere in the world, but that law that is now in full effect in no way has anything to do with the monetary reform that I am looking for from the CBI.  All IMO  

Tivon:  The EFSL is operating within the White Papers. This is not me saying this. It's literally in the thread. I have been looking for it. But it came from Al-Kazemi cabinets. You should know I would never state something this blatant and it not be in some article as I do everything else. How many bold statements have I made without showing it in writing?

You can disagree but Mazhar M. Saleh along with a couple of other said that the EFSL will basically jump start the White Papers into high gear due to the areas or sectors it will address.

They said that's why no one in government challenged the law because it is protected by the White Papers which also operate outside of the political landscape just like the EFSL did as is evident from it flying through unchallenged and published without a seated government.

 I stand by my statements. Because I read there was a clause utilized that allowed the EFSL the protective measures to be pushed through without any problems. I have to look for it. IMO

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Suzie:  Glad they finally published it.  Now, lets stay grounded and see what they actually do, just MY opinion!

Samson:  If I was any more grounded I'd be six feet under LOL 

Tivon:  I wanted to share this with the people from yesterday who championed the perspective that we need a seated GOI in order for important laws to pass that will protect the Monetary Reforms.

I said I was going to find it in writing. Along with the White Papers that is also independent of the political mess with the blocs.

Iraq is using the constitution to rebuild their country. They are using it for Oil & Gas. The USD Price. And the dissolution of Parliament. They got one out of  the way. The EFSL was voted on without a formed GOI.

The Contracts for the gas law was revoked in Kurdistan without a formed GOI.

The EFSL was voted, passed, and published in the Gazette without a formed GOI.

Now that it is official Al-Kazemi can run the country for the remainder of the year without a formed GOI.

I don't know how people here continue to say that they need a seated GOI for this and that when it's full of proxies who are not even eligible for the positions in government. They are obviously not needed.

At least have your talking points substantiated where your word alone isn't drifting out to see without any paddles to find your way back to solid ground. IMO

A member of the "Save the Homeland" coalition, MP Ahmed Mazhar al-Jubouri, said on Tuesday that alliances are still suspended and dialogues are "frozen", and there is nothing new in light of the political blockage.

Al-Jubouri added in an interview with the official "Al-Sabah" newspaper, which was followed by Mawazine News, "In parliament, we have started studying options for passing laws without waiting for the formation of the government."

He explained, "If the problem is to dissolve parliament, we are ready for the constitutional text, and the parliament must dissolve itself, and thus represent the will of the Iraqis, and when there are real popular demands, we are ready to go in this direction."

Al-Jubouri indicated that "the Alliance to Save a Homeland was determined from the first moment to achieve a national project that differs from the old projects, or to start an initiative that there would be a majority government plus a constructive national opposition, not a destructive one."

He continued, "Therefore, if the Alliance to Save a Homeland is on one side, it is not a problem, because it aspires to be a political project and not an electoral project for the president of the republic or the formation of the government."   

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Tivon:  Now that we have a new legislative session coming up next week. It brings me back to what Al-Kazemi supposedly said almost two weeks ago. When he mentioned the USD reduction price. He was very clear as to what he requested of his cabinet. And he has not come out to backtrack on any of his statements.

The man had 100 Deputies sign to support his agenda at the earliest time possible. I know we are not allowed to post pondering Rate & Date opinions. But let me ask what would Al-Kazemi be referring to based on these statements below?

This has been overlooked since it has been posted. Why? Not sure but obviously Al-Kazemi wants to alleviate the conditions of his citizens as soon as any viable allotted time. 

In The Document.. The Signatures Of More Than (100) Deputies Were Collected To Reduce The Exchange Rate Of The Dollar Against The Iraqi Dinar

23rd June, 2022

Greetings... Based on Article (61 Seventh-c) of the Iraqi constitution and Article (56) of the internal system, please include the issue of reducing the price of the dollar in the earliest possible session, according to constitutional reasons, and because of the economic repercussions that are taking place in the country and the collapse of the currency and its impact on Iraqi citizen. With much thanks and appreciation.

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Samson:  KRG announces Eid holiday

07/06/2022 15:58:14

On Wednesday, the Kurdistan Regional Government announced the suspension of official working hours in government departments and institutions next week on the occasion of Eid al-Adha.

"On the occasion of Eid al-Adha, the Kurdistan Regional Government decided to suspend official working hours in all its institutions, starting from Saturday, the ninth of July, until Thursday, the 14th of the same month," a spokesman for the regional government, Jotiar, said in a statement.

The spokesman excluded the exams for the 12th preparatory class (sixth middle school) from the holiday, and said that the exams would be according to their prepared schedules.

On Saturday, Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi directed the suspension of official working hours in all government departments and institutions next week on the occasion of the Eid al-Adha holiday.  LINK

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Samson:  Economist: Oil prices may reach $ 200 in this case

5th July, 2022

The economist, Duraid Al-Enezi, expected, on Tuesday, that oil prices would rise to $200 in the event that Russia’s exports were reduced to 3 million barrels of oil per day

Al-Enezi said, "Russia is on its way to destroying the global economy, in order to restore its economic group (Brexit), as Russia now exports 8 million barrels of oil per day, and if exports are reduced to 5 million, we may witness a rise in oil prices to 170 dollars

Al-Enezi added in a statement to "Al-Furat News", and "Al-Iqtisad News" continued, "It may reach $200 if it reduces its exports to 3 million barrels of oil per day  LINK

What Do You Know About The Shanghai Cooperation organization Led by Russia and China?

KTFA:

Samson:  The largest regional political alliance in the world.. What do you know about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization led by Russia and China?

5th July, 2022

As NATO seeks to expand and bring in new members, both Russia and China are trying to expand partnerships and bring in new members to huge Asian rival organizations to the West, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), to develop greater political understanding and economic interdependence between these faraway countries.

About the West, which creates incentives for cooperation in various fields, and what may constitute a major challenge to the interests of the United States of America and NATO in the East. What is the Shanghai Organization and its members, and what are its objectives?

What is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)?

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a Eurasian international organization, founded in the form of a political, economic and military alliance, in the Chinese city of Shanghai on June 15, 2001 by 6 countries initially: the People's Republic of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. 

These countries, with the exception of Uzbekistan, were members of the "Shanghai Five-Year Group" founded on April 26, 1996 in Shanghai.

Subsequently, India and Pakistan joined the organization as full members on June 9, 2017, at the Astana Summit. While Iran became the ninth member, after the members agreed to amend its status in the organization from an "observer" member to a "full" member, during the summit held in the Tajik capital Dushanbe on September 17, 2021.

The observer countries of the organization include Afghanistan, Belarus and Mongolia, and the "dialogue partners" of the organization include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Turkey, all of which are candidate countries to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization constitute nearly half of the world's population, and nearly three-fifths of the Eurasian land mass, making it the world's largest regional political alliance. The Shanghai Organization in the West is often called the "Eastern Alliance".

What are the goals of the Shanghai Organization?

The objectives of the organization revolve around promoting policies of mutual trust and good neighborliness among member states, combating terrorism and strengthening security, combating crime and drug trafficking, and confronting separatist movements and religious or ethnic extremism.

It also provides for cooperation in the political, commercial, economic, scientific, technical and cultural fields, as well as transportation, education, energy, tourism, environmental protection, and the provision of peace, security and stability in the region. 

At the same time, many analysts believe that the Shanghai Organization is a new military alliance in the east to counter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

What is the significance of the Shanghai Organization and what military activities is it engaged in?

The peoples of this organization constitute half of humanity, which makes it a huge fundamental entity that cannot be underestimated politically, economically or militarily in the global system, especially since most member states oppose American hegemony around the world, and have been secretly and publicly expressing their fears since.

The SCO mainly focuses on the security concerns related to "Central Asia" of its member states, and often describes the main threats it faces as "terrorism", "separatism" and "extremism". Over the past few years, the organization's activities have expanded to include increased military cooperation, intelligence sharing, and counter-terrorism.

The organization says that it "conducts military exercises regularly among members to enhance cooperation and coordination against terrorism and other external threats, and to maintain regional peace and stability."

There have been a number of SCO joint military exercises. The first was held in 2003, with the first stage taking place in Kazakhstan and the second in China. Since then, China and Russia have cooperated in large-scale war games in 2005, 2007 and 2009, sponsored by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

More than 4,000 soldiers participated in the 2007 joint military exercise, known as the "Peace Mission", which took place in Chelyabinsk, Russia, near the Ural Mountains. After the successful completion of these war games, Russian officials began to talk about India joining such exercises in the future, and that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is playing a military role.

In the 2010 Peace Mission exercises, which took place from 9 to 25 September of that year in the Matipulak region of Kazakhstan, attended by more than 5,000 personnel from China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, joint planning and operations exercises were held.

What is the economic size of this block?

The size of the economies of the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2020, amounted to about 19.58 trillion dollars, constituting about 23.1% of the total volume of the global economy, according to the World Bank, which is nearly a quarter of the world's economy.

Since the organization's establishment nearly 20 years ago, China has proposed a long-term goal of establishing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization free trade area, in addition to taking other immediate measures to improve the flow of goods in the region.

The organization established its Business Council on 14 June 2006 with the aim of expanding economic cooperation among member states, establishing direct relationships between financial communities, and facilitating practical promotion of multilateral economic projects. In addition to energy, transportation, telecommunications, lending, and the banking sector, the council focuses on SCO cooperation priorities such as education, research and innovative technology, as well as healthcare and agriculture.

In the same year, the organization also established what is known as the "Inter-Bank Consortium" of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO IBC) by the Council of Heads of Government, with the aim of providing financing and banking services for investment projects sponsored by the governments of the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The SCO IBC is held in particular by consensus of all parties at least once a year.

Priority areas of cooperation within the SCO include: providing financing for projects focused on infrastructure, basic industries, high-tech industries, export-oriented sectors and social enterprises, issuing and providing loans based on generally accepted international banking practices, and organizing pre-export financing to stimulate trade and economic cooperation Among the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and other areas of common interest.

At the 2007 Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for the need to “change the global financial architecture,” saying: “We now clearly see the imbalance of monopoly in global finance and the policy of economic selfishness. To solve the current problem, Russia will participate in changing the global financial architecture so that it can ensuring stability and prosperity in the world and ensuring progress.

"The world has witnessed the emergence of a qualitatively different geopolitical situation, with the emergence of new centers of economic growth and political influence. We will witness and participate in the transformation of structures of global and regional security and development adapting to the new realities of the twenty-first century, when stability and prosperity have become inseparable concepts," Putin added.

On the occasion of the Bishkek Summit in June 2019, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan also made a statement to build a market for the local currency instead of the US dollar among the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In July 2022, Iran recommended the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to create a single currency, to facilitate trade exchange between member states.

How does the West view the Shanghai Organization?

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has been conducting regular military exercises since 2002, and besides improving the strategic partnership between China and Russia, Iran's presence, and these countries' economic, military and nuclear capabilities, all of this is causing concern and fear in the West.

Some Western scholars described the Shanghai Organization as the "NATO of the East", and classified it as an emerging military bloc that should be wary of, and as the largest anti-American bloc in the region, and its meeting together constitutes a challenge to the interests of the United States and its leadership roles in the East.

Although the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not an exclusive military alliance, its member states participate in joint military and war exercises. With the accession of India, Pakistan and Iran, 4 members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization have significant nuclear capabilities, and this has certainly strengthened the new eastern bloc against NATO. But among all the member states, very few meet NATO's requirements for military spending (2% of GDP), which puts a great deal of pressure on the few countries chosen to carry the torch during the conflict.

In addition, since member states have not pledged military support, they will be free to refuse to get involved in future military conflicts, Western experts and analysts say.

What are the challenges facing the Shanghai Organization?

But what the SCO lacks in terms of joint military capability, it may be able to make up for in economic opportunity. The markets of many SCO countries have not yet been fully exploited, and the union has enormous natural and human resources.

 India and China are among the world's fastest growing economies, and with greater economic cooperation, other SCO members may benefit from their growth as well.

One of the biggest challenges facing the SCO is finding a way to reconcile the divergent political interests of its member states. The SCO's goal of increasing cultural and humanitarian exchanges may help overcome this obstacle. But NATO is not as united as many think either; Member states are not necessarily forced to participate in NATO operations, and may even choose to conduct their operations unilaterally.

And if we want to expand on a comparison between NATO and the Shanghai Organization, it seems that NATO focuses more on the world while the Shanghai Cooperation Organization seems more concerned with internal issues. Therefore, it may not be better to compare the two, as some Western analyzes say; The SCO as a body would not pose a direct threat to NATO, but independently, Russia and China might be able to act as powerful players in the conflict.

Despite the enormous size and economic influence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it cannot compete with NATO in the global political arena. This has nothing to do with the military and economic capabilities of both blocs, but more to do with the goals of these two organizations. 

NATO was built to be an alliance against a common enemy, and in the absence of one, the Western political bloc could lose its cohesive strength. On the other hand, the SCO was established during peacetime, and has interests beyond military cooperation, including its various economic and cultural activities in the region.  LINK

Monday Night KTFA CC "CBI is Preparing to Float" 7-5-2022

KTFA

KTFA Tuesday Night CC

Frank26:  7-5-22….CBI IS PREPARING TO FLOAT

This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only

Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Petra, MilitiaMan and Eddie in Iraq

Playback Number: 605-313-5163   PIN: 156996#

What Frank’s suit color’s mean…. FRANKS SUIT COLORS FOR CC'S..... WHITE = NEW INFO…. SILVER = INTEL FROZEN…. RED= HIGH ALERT… PURPLE=GUEST WITH US…. BLUE = AIR FORCE…. BLACK = GROUND/FF’S…. GREEN= MR OR FAB 4 ... GOLD = CHANGE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gC2PSKH8J88

Some "International News" Posted by Samson 7-5-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  President of the Republic : Iraq is an essential axis for the security and stability of the region

4th July, 2022

The President of the Republic, Barham Salih, affirmed, today, Monday, that Iraq is an essential hub for the security and stability of the region.

The media office of the President of the Republic said in a statement received by the Iraqi News Agency (INA), that "the President of the Republic, Barham Salih, received the American Senator Lindsey Graham," noting that "the meeting dealt with the strong bilateral relations between the two countries and ways to strengthen them in the political, economic and cultural fields, in accordance with understandings and interests."

The importance of continuing to work and coordinate to combat terrorism and eradicate its roots in the whole region, and cooperate in confronting economic fluctuations, combating the scourge of financial and administrative corruption, and helping to recover Iraqi funds smuggled abroad, in addition to cooperation in confronting the phenomenon of climate change and protecting the environment. He added, "In the meeting, they discussed the latest regional and international developments of common interest."

President Barham Salih stressed, according to the statement, "the importance of easing tensions in the region, defusing crises through dialogue and ending terrorist havens," pointing out "the importance of Iraq in the region as an essential hub for the security and stability of the entire region."

For his part, Senator Lindsey Graham affirmed "the commitment of the United States to support the security and stability of Iraq, and to establish close relations in various fields," noting "the importance of Iraq in the region and its active role in establishing security and stability."  LINK

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Samson:  Citigroup warns of a collapse in oil to $ 65 by the end of 2022

5th July, 2022

Citigroup Inc, warned Tuesday (July 5, 2022) that crude oil prices could collapse to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and drop to $45 by the end of 2023

Analysts including Francesco Martuccia and Ed Morse said in a report that those expectations are based on the absence of any intervention by OPEC + producers and the decline in oil investment. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last trading near $113 a barrel

Oil surged this year after the invasion of Ukraine, and banks are now trying to chart their course to 2023 as central banks raise interest rates and risks of a recession rise

Citi forecasts have compared the current energy market to the crises of the 1970s. At present, the bank's economists do not expect the US to plunge into recession

"For oil, historical evidence suggests that oil demand turns negative only in the worst of the global recession," Citi analysts said. “But in all recessions oil prices fall to nearly marginal cost

Citigroup, one of the largest American financial services companies, is headquartered in New York City

LINK

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Samson:  Iraq achieves a financial surplus of more than 15 billion dollars in the first 5 months of 2022

5th July, 2022

On Tuesday, the economic expert, Nabil Al-Marsoumi, showed the state's financial accounts until May 2022.

Al-Marsoumi said in a Facebook post seen by / the information / that "the general revenues of the Iraqi state until May 2022 amounted to 62.218 trillion dinars."

He added, "The public expenditures with the advances are 40.384 trillion dinars," noting that "the actual surplus is 21,834 trillion dinars, equivalent to 15.057 billion dollars."    LINK

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Samson:  Big Losses For Oil Amid Fears Of Recession

5th July, 2022

Oil prices fell $6 on Tuesday, as concerns about a possible global recession denting demand outweighed concerns about supply disruptions, highlighted by an expected production cut in Norway.

Brent crude fell $6.65, or 5.9%, to $106.85 a barrel by 1344 GMT, and US West Texas Intermediate crude fell $5.65, or 5.2%, to $102.78 a barrel from Friday's close. Trading in West Texas Intermediate crude was suspended on Monday due to a holiday in the United States.

Investors are becoming more concerned as the recent rise in gas and fuel prices is heightening fears about a recession. Investors are increasingly concerned about demand in light of a broad tightening of global financial conditions, as the US Federal Reserve combats inflation by rapidly raising interest rates.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for a third month, pointing to further increases as it sought to contain rising inflation even with the risk of economic deflation.

Oil prices continue to receive some support from supply concerns as a result of Western sanctions imposed on shipments from Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine, concerns about the ability of major oil producers in the Middle East to increase production, and current labor disputes in Norway.  LINK

Samson:  Russia Responds To A Japanese Proposal To Set Oil Prices: It Will Exceed $400... And You Will Pay The Price

5th July, 2022
Russia has responded to the Japanese proposal to set a ceiling for oil prices, warning of its consequences for global markets, as well as higher-than-expected prices.

The former Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, confirmed today, Tuesday, that this proposal to reduce the price of Russian crude at about half its current level will lead to a significant drop in oil in the market, and may push prices above 300-400 dollars per barrel.

Commenting on the proposal, Medvedev said that Japan "will have neither oil nor gas from Russia, nor will it participate in the Sakhalin 2 LNG project" as a result, Reuters reported.

Medvedev, who is currently the deputy head of the Russian Security Council, wrote on social media: “There will be much less oil on the market, and its price will be much higher...Moreover, it will be higher than the expected astronomical price of 300-400 dollars per barrel.“

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree last week imposing full control of the Sakhalin 2 gas and oil project in Russia's Far East, a move that could force Shell and Japan's Mitsui and Mitsubishi to exit.   LINK

Tivon and KTFA Members Tuesday Afternoon "What Are We Waiting On?" 7-5-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  An Economist Confirms The Inability At The Present Time To Reduce The Exchange Rate Of The Dollar

5th July, 2022

The economic expert, Dr. Safwan Qusay, explained that the current time does not allow changing the exchange rate of the dollar and raising the value of the Iraqi dinar without taking measures to ensure that the dinar maintains its value.

Qusay told Al-Maalouma, "The Central Bank confirmed that there is no justification for restoring the dollar exchange rate to its previous era, especially since the process of defending the value of the Iraqi dinar needs reserves that grow over time in this bank, as well as the process of rehabilitating the economy to be productive. And he can defend the value of the dinar.”

He added that "Iraq does not currently have revenues in dinars other than the legal revenues approved by the government for fees, taxes and others, and when the Iraqi economy is rehabilitated so that there are revenues from the geographical location or the industrial, food and agricultural sectors, as the process of changing the shape of the economy is what will allow the value of the dinar to increase“.

And he indicated that “the increase, if it takes place, will be unreal, and Iraq may feel that this increase will not be in place, and it is better to invest the savings that the country obtains from high oil prices for strategic investment projects so that it will be a base for defending the Iraqi dinar to absorb unemployment and reduce poverty.”  LINK

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Tivon:  How do you expect to have revenues in IQD if you never change the rate to support the national currency?

Mazhar M. Saleh stated that the hard currency reserves can defend the IQD and preserve the purchasing power of the IQD against any inflation. By the end of the year it will move from 70-90 Billion. Fluctuations in prices will not affect the IQD therefore the income of the citizens will sustain itself.

 It's like he's talking in reverse of what the reinstatement is supposed to do once the rate is released.

How do you expect the IQD to move up in value if the industrial, food, and agricultural sectors are using the USD? You know what I noticed? The reason I think we are seeing continous articles as to why they can't reduce the USD price is because Al-Kazemi has not been officially approved or voted on to run the country due to the dissolution of Parliament not happening as of yet.

They are nervous because they are not sure Mailiki is not officially out of power. Because the excuses they have do not make any sense. As long as he appears to still have his foot in the race they will be hesitant to cause any upheaval.

Why? Because as I stated before the reinstatement of the IQD is an "Act of War". It can literally cause blood shed. So they want to be sure about who's the head honcho in charge. And that has not been clearly demonstrated.

They know the Rothschilds financial schemes are based on intimidation, bribery, and murder. Don't think they don't know why Muammar Gaddafi was assassinated. He wanted to get rid of the USD and go back on the Gold Standard. And he was killed for it.

That has stuck with many people in Iraq. Which is why they are so scared to do it. They think hit squads will be after them. Another thing when you look at the recent announcement from Citigroup about oil prices dropping. You can see the time clock ticking away for Iraq to do something now.

So Dr. Safwan Qusay can throw that strategy out of the window of relying on savings from oil prices to invest in projects. The War in Ukraine will not last much longer. So if 90% of Iraqs revenue comes from oil I think it's best they strike while the price is hot.

 The EFSL is contingent upon the current oil prices to help move the wheel of the economy that Mazhar M. Saleh stated almost a month ago. So how in the world can they wait any longer to reduce the USD price when the EFSL is only for this year?

Have you guys noticed the trend of articles denying or denouncing the reduction of the USD before the EFSL is even officially published in the Gazette?

Al-Kazemi is up to something because he's been to quiet on these opinion pieces that goes against what he intended to do when he requested at the earliest session to reduce the USD. 100 Deputies were/are in agreement. He faced no contest from none of them. So I will only keep my eye on him as he knows what's in the cards and he also knows the parliament has a hand full of red twos.

Jamal Cougar (Post 35) stated at the beginning of the ratification of the law money will be dispersed to ministries & governates. Which implies it isn't official yet. So what are they waiting on? Something is very fishy.

Iraqi citizens are already complaining that they can't buy any special items for the upcoming holidays which was a customary thing for them. Not to mention just yesterday even though it is up to the Central Bank at least it has been brought up by Parliament to start the process.

But we now know since yesterday that a gradual increase goes against the Article 8 Compliance of the IMF. So a instant rate change would definitely prompt the citizens to get rid of the USD now that we know the ATMs were designed to recycle them out of the system. So it's makes plenty of sense why they installed that feature in the machine. IMO

Samson:  Al-Maliki's Coalition: The 2022 Budget Will Not Go Ahead Without Returning The Price Of The Dollar

5th July, 2022

The State of Law coalition confirmed, on Tuesday, that the coalition will not vote to pass the 2022 budget except by a decision to lower the dollar exchange rate and return it to what it was previously.

The leader of the coalition, Haider al-Lami, said in an interview with / the information / that “Al-Maliki’s coalition categorically refused to raise the exchange rate of the dollar and keep the price as it was previously, or raise it to a maximum of 125,000 thousand Iraqi dinars for the 100 US dollars, but we were surprised by the refusal Great," noting that "the only person affected by this rise is the Iraqi people.

He added, "Iraq today exports more than four million barrels, and the price of one barrel reaches more than $100, but so far we see the dollar exchange rate is very high."

The leader of the State of Law explained that "the coalition will not proceed with passing the Federal Budget Law for 2022 inside the parliament, except by a decision to lower the dollar exchange rate and return it to what it was previously in order to serve the interests of the Iraqi people."

And the leader in the State of Law coalition, Essam Shaker, confirmed to “Information” that “all the political elites agree that Al-Kazemi’s government has committed grave mistakes in the economic file, starting with the file of raising the dollar exchange rate and decreasing the value of the Iraqi dinar, leading to weak control over the markets and leaving millions of Iraqis at the mercy of Monopoly and the mafias of the markets that manipulate prices as they wish.    LINK

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Tivon:  Well Frank did say the rate precedes the budget. Not only that the Financial Management Law is not enough to serve the people for the remainder of the year as was stated by Mazhar M. Saleh. But I am quite surprised to hear this from Maliki.

Probably because he wants to go out on a high note given the corruption charges facing him and his cronies. Because the Mafias of the money markets are the same people who assassinated Muammar Gaddafi when he wanted to get rid of the USD hegemonic control over his people.

Someone either got a hold of Maliki and told him to play ball  given what was on those leaflets in terms of Zero-Hour and many corrupt officials want to come clean before their property is swept by military officials and they are carted off to prison for "Crimes Against Humanity".

So I can understand why some say they were surprised by this announcement from Maliki. No one expected that to come from him. Maybe the writing on the wall is forcing him to get right with God. As his reign is coming to an end.

Now that he supports this maybe we will start to see a trend from other officials to move forward with support to Al-Kazemi to reduce the USD price sense Maliki blames him for the rise of it.

We are living in strange times but exciting none the less. I'm pretty sure Eddie would be surprised and excited to read this. Because the USD price should not be this high given the rise in oil. Which is enough along with reserves to support the IQD on a 1:1 scale.

But again thus will not last and the clock is ticking. Citigroup confirmed this. Will they reinstate the IQD before the upcoming holiday so Iraqi citizens can continue the tradition of shopping before it gets here? Don't know as that window is even shorter than the oil timeframe.

Maybe Maliki is using this to campaign for office. Either way he can't take back these statements so I'm sure this has sparked confidence in those who were and are scared to release the exchange rate if they have public enemy #1(Al-Maliki) getting behind the move to reduce the USD even if it's only intended to make Al-Kazemi look a certain way in front of the Iraqi people.

This is why we should have a broad landscape view and don't pay to much mind to opinion pieces when the laws support a return to constitutional obligations to serve the Iraqi people. And so far that has worked wonders for the Oil & Gas Law. Why not the exchange rate?

Think about it people. This is only going one way. You can have three different articles on the same thread saying different things on the same subject. This only causes confusion to those who do not use any critical thinking to tie this convoluted mess together to understand why things are said by certain individuals that either support or go against what is right.

You have to have that internal compass to determine what that is. The articles will not do that for you. IMO

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Suzie:  I have to agree with Tivon, we are living in strange and exciting times and while it seems Iraq is "fast-tracking" things, my OWN OPINION stays the same.  I mentioned months ago that for the monetary reform/new exchange rate to appear Iraq NEEDS to be fully article 8 compliant which they are not, and they need a fully seated Government which they don't, and the new EFSL as we all know has not appeared in the Gazette as of yet even tho' the 15 days has passed. Even being "hooked" up globally, the AMF, etc, atm's in place, their gold reserves and everything else points to the fact they're ready and supposedly moving quickly, they still have to have what I've mentioned, IN MY OPINION.   Just sayin'..

Tivon:  I remember Delta stating back in 2018 that they are not of the mindset of announcing that they are Article 8 Compliant. Why? Because they do not want to tip off the markets. Speculation would go wild.

Think about the guy who got caught trying to smuggle out IQD at the Iraqi Airport. He did that because he knows Al-Kazemi has that on his agenda. Why do you think they are doing the same thing with the EFSL? We are way past the 15 day deadline for it to be ratified and we still do not have official word on that.

 They don't need a fully seated government for the White Papers/EFSL because all of that was done without a formed government. These two things operate outside of political turmoil. 

You forget Al-Kazemi request to reduce the USD price at the earliest session. He didn't state at the earliest possible formation of the GOI. We Iraq will honor certain things just because it makes sense to us. At times they do follow through and have been for the past few months. Then when it comes time to officially underwriting it like the reinstatement they stall. Why?

Because they are scared of the Money Mafia who are willing to kill to keep Iraq on a program rate. No one wants to end up like Muammar Gaddafi when he tried to get rid of the USD. Maliki just stated that these mobs exist. Read it.

As I said it needs to be clear on who is running the country. Al-Kazemi or Al-Maliki? Keep in mind a seated government for this year is almost out of the picture. Simply because the EFSL is created to take place of the budget given the many sectors it will address.

 The 2022 Budget can not even be considered for 2022 simply because you need a seated government to pass one. And if they do there will only be 51 trillion allocated to the 2022 budget and that will go to new projects only. Which will be picked up by the 2023 budget.

The EFSL is for everything that the 2021 Budget was supposed to do. One of them being raising the value of the IQD. Al-Kazemi said he wants the full force of the EFSL. Well if that's the case that would mean his cabinet will need the remainder of the year to utilize the law.

Why would he personally wait for a seated government if he wants to use the emergency law to accomplish everything it was designed to address? IMO

Delta: The definition of Article 8 for Iraq is to lift the restriction on their currency. They are not going to tell you they are Article 8 compliant.That would signal a change.The countries on their borders would be excited.They are now working under Article 8. Article 8 compliant.The acceptance of Article 8 requires them to lift all restrictions on their currency. Abadi promised this at the Kuwait convention.

Popey7:  Imo, I concur with Tivon's post this morning... The fact that they have not released the EFSL into the Gazette is mighty fishy... While at the same time showing just how important this law is... Thanks Tivon... by the way, Thursday is 7/7... Not really sure this still has relevance but Christine Lagarde emphasized that number over 8 years ago during her speech to the National Press Club... What we wait for is certainly a biggie, and will trigger a time frame for other events to transpire as the future unfolds... God bless, and hold fast KTFA... 

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DeepWoodz:  Imo   There are no arguments here fellas. Let me share some thoughts since this is a public forum and we’ve all been told we can share our opinions. 

I don’t know why there is any confusion regarding the EFSL, the budget, the government. It’s already been said but I will repeat it because it’s the only thing worth repeating. We are on God’s timetable and He states plainly not to rely on your own understanding. 

It’s great to express an opinion as long as others get to opine without confrontation and ego getting involved. Most times it’s very easy to see what’s going on here. 

Now for a question NO ONE can answer. Simply because it’s the same question no matter what news article pops off. 

WHAT ARE THEY WAITING ON?

Kadhimi was in full control October last year. Budget was fully prepared and gee wiz Batman!!! They didn’t do it. That’s ok because hind sight we can see all the things they’ve done since then. But still no change, at least one we can see. WICH MEANS THEY ARE STILL WAITING ON SOMETHING besides a law they have decided not to enact….yet. 

The auctions are in full swing, correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t the auction pull three zero notes off the street??? 

Frank has mentioned M figures. Couldn’t we be down to something as simple as hitting that magic number they want to achieve? 

I have a very basic understanding of the currency auction. Almost none. Maybe someone could answer my questions.   

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Tivon: What are they waiting on? Dissolution of Parliament. That would make sense if they are scared of Maliki and what he may do to retaliate against those who go through with reinstating the IQD.

The USD was forced on Iraq. They didn't campaign for it. The Rothschilds (Banking Oligarchs) assassinated Muammar Gaddafi when he tried to use their national currency. Al-Kazemi is trying to rally the troops and instill confidence into the people in position to raise the value of the IQD. But they do not want death hanging over their heads if Maliki is still walking around.

 So now they are stuck in this quagmire. On one hand they know Dissolution is a pending issue. On the other even if they are dissolved and Al-Kazemi runs the country off the EFSL for the remainder of the year. They still will be hesitant to follow through with anything impactful for the citizens if Maliki is still walking around.

You guys are severely underestimating the fear this guy has instilled into those in power. Especially the ones who want to do the right thing.

 AYSCUDA, BUNA, Taxes & Customs, General Customs Authority etc are all ready. But people are nervous because the atmosphere doesn't feel right or makes them feel safe that nothing will happen to them if the release the exchange rate.

That's why I will continue to say the reinstatement is an "Act of War". No one wants any casualties while trying to bring purchasing power to the citizens.

 Look at the death threats Clarence Thomas faced just for overturning Roe vs Wade. Now think about how powerful reducing the USD that will have global ramifications will be. People are willing to kill to keep Iraq at a program rate. That's why none of their excuses make sense. The Mafia is alive and well. Maliki just mentioned them. 👇 

Quote: And the leader in the State of Law coalition, Essam Shaker, confirmed to “Information” that “all the political elites agree that Al-Kazemi’s government has committed grave mistakes in the economic file, starting with the file of raising the dollar exchange rate and decreasing the value of the Iraqi dinar, leading to weak control over the markets and leaving millions of Iraqis at the mercy of Monopoly and the mafias of the markets that manipulate prices as they wish.  

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Dinardiva1:  Tivon —-So are we waiting now for Maliki to be gone before this RV will happen ? IMO

Tivon:  On the surface that what it appears to be for select individuals. Al-Kazemi already knows what he wants done. He made that very clear. Especially when you read what he stated just a week ago in terms of wanting the EFSL implemented with full force.  So I wouldn't go so far to say that Al-Maliki is the sole purpose. Because he can be out the picture in a blink of an eye if those leaflets are anything to go by as far as the Zero-Hour.

Legally on a Constitutional basis dissolution seems to be the intended plan to ensure the people that Al-Kazemi will be running the show for the remainder of the year. But as we can see Al-Zamili is trying to confuse the people by giving them the impression that he is still at large.

But he sees that is not the case once they voted and passed the EFSL. He tried to file lawsuits and still protest the law but really lack control to do anything about it. Al-Maliki has psychological fear more so then he does physical power. It's like you can defang a snake to be harmless in a physical sense. But if anyone was to see one it wouldn't make a difference in their mind so they would still consider that snake a threat until it is clear it is dead or at least out of the house.

This is why you have people reluctant to do or follow Al-Kazemi. Which is a hand few. Because you can clearly see in the articles as to the many reasons they try to come up with changing the rate in spite of the clear request by Al-Kazemi who doesn't see any problems as to why this can't be done at the earliest session.

Why would he even announce something of that calibre so casually if he was not ready? Releasing the Dinar exchange rate would send a clear signal to the Rothschilds, Rocafellers, and "The British Crown" that they no longer run the show.

If you think the reaction to Roe vs Wade is something. The IQD would be a thousand times more worse for the Central Bankers. They will lose their control over the Middle East entirely.

You want to know what the "Weapons of Mass Destruction" was. All you have to do is look into why they killed Muammar Gaddafi. You have to understand how monumental this reinstatement  is to the full extent of what it will for countries that have it in their reserves. Especially America. IMO

More From MilitiaMan, Tivon and Samson Monday Evening 7-4-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  Today.. The Coordination Framework Meets At Al-Maliki's House

4th July, 2022

An informed source said today, Monday, that the coordinating framework will hold a meeting this evening at the home of the head of the State of Law coalition, Nuri al-Maliki.

The source told Earth News, "The house of the head of the State of Law coalition, Nuri al-Maliki, will host today, Monday, a meeting of the coordination framework to discuss matters related to discussions with the political blocs in preparation for the formation of the next government."    LINK

MilitiaMan:  Prepping for the Dissolution of Parliament? lol The next government landscape in the future is likely not to include Maliki, This meeting may be more likely travel plans are warranted.. lol ~ MM

Samson:  The Ministry of Oil clarifies the position of international oil services companies in the region

07/04/2022 19:52:28

The Ministry of Oil issued, today, Monday, a clarification regarding the position of international oil services companies in the Kurdistan region.

 The ministry stated in a statement that {Euphrates News} received a copy of it, that: “In view of the many questions directed to the Ministry of Oil from the international and local press regarding the position of the international oil services companies operating in the Kurdistan region of the Federal Court’s decision, the ministry confirms that the companies (Schlumberger, BigHughes) Halliburton), which is considered one of the world's solid companies in the field of oil services.

And she added, "According to her official correspondence with the ministry, she confirmed not to submit to new projects in the Kurdistan region in compliance with the decision of the Federal Court and the directives of the steering committee formed in the Ministry of Oil."

The ministry indicated that "the above companies are now in the process of liquidating and closing the existing tenders and contracts," stressing that "under this pledge, they do not own a commercial entity or other companies operating in the region, whether with their trademark or for others or on their behalf, and in a manner that does not violate the decision of the distinguished Federal Court, Or it intersects with the directives of the Ministry.  LINK

MilitiaMan:  So the calls for that there are no companies leaving the Kurdish area yet are false, those names above are very large companies. They are not in the business to break laws. imo Just like the CBI is likely to not waste 10s of millions of dollars on new currency issuance to be wasted.  Nor is it likely that the digital BUNA platform was to test the IQD for clearing currencies, or the digital AYSCUDA system in place for to facilitate digital taxation at the borders. imo That would include the borders with the Kurds... imo ~ MM

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Samson:  Ramadi markets are stagnating with the approaching Eid Al-Adha

4th July, 2022

Eid al-Adha differs this time from previous years in terms of buying and selling, and the demand of citizens in Anbar Governorate to buy clothes and Eid supplies, as was common on festive occasions, according to what a number of shop owners and citizens in Ramadi indicated.

The Iraqi News Agency (INA), during its field tour in the markets of Ramadi, surveyed the opinions of shop owners and citizens, to clearly identify the market movement and the reasons for the recession.

Amjad Hamid, (owner of women's clothing stores), told the Iraqi News Agency (INA), during her tour: "In previous years, despite the Corona pandemic and the curfew, the demand for shopping was good, and we, the shop owners, were able to sell half of our goods by through the delivery service to our customers in all regions. Hamid added, "We are currently presenting offers for our goods at discounted prices, but the sales movement is still not good to the extent that we suffer from not being able to provide rent for shops and pay the wages of electric generators whose prices have risen to 25 thousand dinars per ampere."

For his part, citizen Riad Suleiman (a government employee), indicated that "every Eid, he would buy new clothes for his children, but this year he was satisfied with buying only basic foodstuffs, due to the high prices of goods."

In turn, Amer Muhammad (owner of a children's clothing store), pointed out that "this holiday is very different from the holidays that preceded it, as most of the dependence has become on employees, and all shop owners were waiting for employees to receive their salaries in order to move the stagnant market and activate the sales movement", stressing that "the stagnation in the markets remained unchanged."

And Muhammad continued, “The stagnation of market movement and the low demand for purchase greatly affected the shop owners and burdened them with debts, especially since most of the goods offered are “models”, meaning that they are governed by a specific period of time, and this is another problem that is added to a number of other problems that he suffers from. Including shop owners.  

MilitiaMan:  Inflation has strangling the citizens before a very special holiday.. The heat is on!! They need purchase power fast..

The street will not take kindly to not only that the election failed and dissolution of the parliament being likely and will likely make them to have to wait for some timed before that is resolved, mean time the temperatures are up in Iraq now and electricity has still some issues on the back of higher costs...  imo

This is added pressure to get the new exchange rate presented.. imo ~ MM

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Tivon:  Between now and the 16th is such a turbulent window of opportunity given what Petra has shared  LINK   I wonder the implications in regards to the citizens who are experiencing and witnessing the inflation, political impasse, electricity, poverty, etc will do in this hot month where tempers & temperature can incite some instability in the region and people take to the Green Zone or anywhere for that matter and start demanding everything the EFSL is/was created for in large numbers? What is going on with that Gazette? Something is off because on one hand Mazhar said the law entered into force. On the other hand the ministries said they didn't receive anything. Therfore they can't not help the families in need who are atleast 300,000 in the database. IMO

Samson:  The National Bank of Iraq signs an unfunded facility agreement with the Arab Trade Finance Program

4th July, 2022

As part of its efforts to promote exports and imports of the industrial and service sectors in the Iraqi market, the National Bank of Iraq and the Arab Trade Finance Program recently signed an unfunded facility agreement

The agreement was signed by Abdul Rahman bin Abdullah Al-Hamidi, CEO and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Arab Trade Finance Program, and Board Member/CEO of the National Bank of Iraq Ayman Abu Dhaim. Under the agreement, the Arab Trade Financing Program granted the National Bank of Iraq a line of credit to be used in financing Arab trade and to guarantee qualified commercial deals

The Arab Trade Finance Program provides funded and unfunded credit facilities through the conclusion of risk-sharing partnership agreements with international financial institutions, in order to participate in the risks of the national agencies’ payment of their obligations, and also through the direct issuance of guarantees or irrevocable payment pledges to ensure that national agencies pay their obligations. arising from entering into commercial operations subject to the principles and uniform international norms

 The CEO of the National Bank of Iraq, Ayman Abu Dhaim, expressed his pride in this cooperation with the Arab Trade Financing Program, which will support the plans of the National Bank of Iraq in providing the best services to its corporate clients in various commercial and industrial sectors, by supporting the financing of exports and imports of these sectors, in a way that contributes to the development of trade in Iraq

Abu Dhaim pointed to the bank’s achievements in the Iraqi market, where it was able to effectively contribute to the Iraqi economy and consolidate its distinguished position at the heart of the banking sector, which is the locomotive of development and the main pillar of various vital sectors, by providing banking products and services with high added value to its customers.

From individuals and companies, and its investment in its infrastructure, it has witnessed over these years a remarkable increase in the number of its branches, which today amounted to 19 branches and 112 ATMs spread in various Iraqi governorates

It should be noted that the Arab Trade Finance Program is a joint Arab financial institution that was established in 1989 in the city of Abu Dhabi - United Arab Emirates. The program aims to develop Arab trade and enhance the productive and competitive capacity of the Arab exporter

The program works to provide a package of services to the Arab trader that will contribute to enhancing his productivity and competitiveness. At the forefront of these services is the provision of the necessary financing for Arab trade activities through its approved national agencies at a competitive cost and easy terms. The program services include various tools and mechanisms that include financing through credit lines. , financing in accordance with Islamic Sharia, risk sharing with various financial institutions, document discounting service, guarantee services, in addition to a number of other unfunded credit facilities   LINK

Some "International News" Posted by Samson Monday PM 7-4-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  An economist explains the importance of the Belt and Road Initiative for Iraq

4th July, 2022

The researcher in economic affairs, Nabil Jabbar Al-Ali, confirmed, on Monday, that the Chinese agreement is not related to the Silk Road project or the Al-Faw port project, indicating that the Chinese agreement is a contract on credit.  Iraq pays 20% in the form of oil payments, and Chinese institutions lend Iraq 80%. And its companies implement projects inside Iraq without competition.

Al-Ali said in a statement to "Al-Maalouma", that "Al-Faw port is a maritime transport project at a cost of approximately $3 billion, and it is a commercial port that cannot generate revenues of more than $1 billion annually, which is equivalent to approximately 1.5 percent of Iraq's oil revenues in working in conditions for its ultimate success.

He added that "the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, or what is known as the Silk Road, is a large Chinese international investment project to implement Chinese investments in the field of international transport to achieve Chinese goals related to quick and less expensive access to goods manufactured in China to various parts of the world."

Al-Ali pointed out that “Iraq can be classified as a country that falls within the American and British influence, and China is trying to approach cautiously with Iraq, and China cannot rely on an international line under pure American control, as is the case in Iraq.”

He pointed out that "the Silk Road can create multiple commercial interests in Iraq, as well as in the field of transportation, transit and shipping. It can enhance opportunities for industry, storage, free trade, and free industrial zones, provided that the political will, a clear vision and policies are available."    LINK

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Samson:  Iraq tracks down traffickers with "black gold" to control millions of smuggled liters

3rd July, 2022

The Oil Products Distribution Company announced, on Sunday, the actual pursuit of fuel smugglers in all governorates of Iraq, in addition to following up and inspecting gas stations and monitoring cases of storage and smuggling carried out by the weak.

The assistant general manager of the company, director of the Inspection Authority, Ihsan Mousa Ghanem, told Shafak News Agency, "The concerned authorities (inspection, national security and the Joint Operations Command) have actually started the operation."

Ghanem added, "The smuggling operations took place in more than one governorate, including the Khamisiya area, the village of Ghazaliya, southwest of Babil, where a smuggling den was seized in which cars containing tanks with a capacity of five thousand to seven thousand liters and cars loaded with oil drums."

In Karbala, the official indicated that there are "joint duties in the province between the National Security Agency and the Ministry of Oil, represented by inspecting the province, where a smuggling den was seized in which tanks with a capacity of 1,000 liters contain gas oil in unknown quantities."

He explained that "the ministry approached all security authorities with the aim of cooperating with the ministry/oil products distribution company, to monitor the movement of petroleum products and prevent smuggling operations outside the stations or exploiting the quotas set for non-governmental stations."

Ghanem stressed that there was "great cooperation and work on the part of the security authorities, which led to the arrest of many traffickers, smugglers and the weak-hearted, and the seizure of dens selling and storing fuel outside the controls, whether in Baghdad or the provinces."

He added that "the inspection and security authorities are arresting the owners of tankers who violate the instructions for transportation and distribution and change the route of the vehicle," pointing out that strict measures are taken against anyone who tries to tamper with the national economy, as the ministry began implementing procedures to track fuel smuggling operations, especially that 6-7 million Liters go daily for smuggling.

Earlier, the National Security Agency had carried out a campaign to chase fuel smugglers and dealers, which resulted in the arrest of a number of oil derivatives smugglers and the seizure of violating stations in a number of governorates as part of a campaign it is currently waging to address the fuel crisis, while taking pledges from the owners of other stations within the mechanisms of dismantling the current crisis.   LINK

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Samson:  Iran lowers oil prices to compete with Russia in China

4th July, 2022

Bloomberg Agency reported, in a report published today, that Iran has begun reducing prices for its crude oil, which is already cheap, in order to compete with Russia in the market of China, one of the largest importers of oil in the world.

The agency said in the report that "China has become an important destination for Russian oil in light of the repercussions of the situation related to Ukraine, and this has led to increased competition with Iran in one of the few remaining markets for Iranian crude oil shipments, which has been significantly reduced due to US sanctions."

Russian exports to China jumped to a record level last May, as Saudi exports to this market exceeded, and in the mentioned month Russia topped the largest oil exporters to China.

In light of this, Iran has lowered oil prices to remain competitive in the Chinese market, but it is still maintaining strong flows to China, likely due to increased demand as China eases severe restrictions related to the virus, which has crushed consumption.  LINK

Samson:  Is Venezuelan oil flowing to the market in light of the energy crisis?

3rd July, 2022

It seems that the West's abandonment of Russian energy sources may constitute an opportunity for Venezuela, a member of the "OPEC Plus" alliance, to return to international energy markets, but it is still subject to US sanctions so far.

OANDA expert Edward Moya considers this a golden opportunity for Caracas to turn the page on its differences with the West, according to Agence France-Presse. "It is in Venezuela's interest to benefit from tougher sanctions against energy imported from Russia," the West's number one new enemy, Moya said.

On the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in Germany, France called for "diversification of supplies" in order to limit the rise in energy prices due to the Ukraine crisis.

The price of a barrel of Brent North Sea, the benchmark for black gold in Europe, has jumped by 20 percent since the start of the Ukraine crisis on February 24, while the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude has risen by 22 percent.

Among the main factors for the rise is the Western embargo on Russian fuel, especially after the US embargo in March and a similar European decision in early June.

Craig Erlam of OANDA confirms that Venezuela can pump "a large amount of oil to the market fairly quickly", as it can quickly produce up to one million barrels, according to estimates by the "Swisscoat" company.   LINK

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Samson:  Russia accuses the United States of theft

4th July, 2022

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday that Moscow and Caracas agreed that freezing the foreign assets of various countries by the United States is outright theft.

Lavrov said during a joint press conference with his Venezuelan counterpart Carlos Faria after their talks in Moscow: "We have agreed that the US measures to freeze the assets of sovereign countries deposited in foreign accounts, is not an outright theft in the spirit of the Wild West, targeting regimes they do not like only, but it is also a flagrant violation." of the social and economic rights of citizens. 

He added that Moscow and Caracas "know how serious Washington is in its attempts, which it is still making, to undermine the foundations of the Venezuelan economy."

The Russian minister indicated that "it is already clear that these plans will not come true," explaining that "Russia will help Venezuela to resist this kind of pressure, and stressed Russia's readiness to support the efforts of the Venezuelan authorities to restore the situation inside and around the country to its normal course, as well as its readiness to continue cooperation with Caracas in the international arena.

For his part, the Venezuelan Foreign Minister affirmed his government's support for Moscow in the special military operation it is carrying out in Ukraine.  LINK

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Samson:  They continued to print currency until the state collapsed.. the worst case of inflation in history

4th July, 2022

Since man started using money, inflation has also been around; The currency fluctuates and prices rise and fall for several reasons, and in most cases this matter is controlled in one way or another.

But in some cases when the wrong economic conditions occur, things can spiral out of control very quickly and a country loses its ability to fully protect its currency.

Severe hypertrophy

Hyperinflation or hyperinflation is the term for extremely high and often rapidly accelerating inflation.

It usually occurs as a result of an increased supply of currency (ie printing more banknotes) in exchange for a significantly higher cost of basic goods. As the value of money becomes less, the goods become more and more expensive.

Fortunately, severe inflation is a relatively rare case, because the more stable currencies, such as the British pound, the US dollar and the Japanese yen, are seen as the most desirable currencies; Because it has historically held a record value relative to its value. However, the currencies of other countries were not so lucky. Here are the most serious cases of hyperinflation, how it began in the first place, and how it ended and the affected countries managed to recover.

1- The Great Inflation in Greece in 1944

In the fifth worst case of inflation ever, Greece in 1944 saw prices and the value of goods and materials double roughly every 4 and a quarter days.

Hyperinflation in Greece practically began in October 1943, during the German occupation of the country during World War II. However, the fastest rate of inflation occurred when the Greek government-in-exile regained control of Athens in October 1944; Prices rose 13,800% that month, and another 1,600% in November, according to CNBC News.

In 1942, the highest denomination of the Greek currency was 50,000 drachmas, but by 1944 the highest denomination was 100 trillion drachmas.

On November 11 of the same year, the government issued a renaming of the currency, converting the old drachma into a new one at a rate of 50 billion to one, yet citizens continued to use the British pound as de facto currency until mid-1945.

After the civil war in Greece from January to December. Britain intervened during 1945 and 1946 with a plan to stabilize the country.

The plan included increasing revenue through the sale of aid goods, adjusting set tax rates, improving tax collection methods, and creating a currency commission (made up of three ministers, Greek, British and American) to take on fiscal responsibility. By the beginning of 1947, prices had stabilized, public confidence had returned and national income had risen, extricating Greece from the spiral of hyperinflation.

The main cause of inflation in Greece was World War II, which burdened the country with debt, canceled its trade and resulted in four years of occupation by the Axis powers.

2. Germany's sharp inflation of 1923

In November 1922, Germany defaulted on its reparations payments. In response, Allied forces invaded the Ruhr Valley, one of the country's main industrial regions, and confiscated productive goods.

In response, the German government ordered a policy of "passive resistance", in which employees refuse to work or cooperate with foreign forces in exchange for the government continuing to pay their salaries. This payment was made by printing more money.

According to the Sky History website, this was initially supposed to be a temporary measure, as the occupation continued and with it more and more newly printed cash circulated.

Central banks used more than 30 paper mills and 133 companies to print bank notes. As a result, prices have skyrocketed.

For example, the price of a loaf of bread rose from 250 Reichsmarks in January 1923 to 200,000 million by November 1923. Also, the speed of the price hike led to workers receiving their salaries twice a day to keep up with that.

To appreciate that disaster more, the price of 500 billion eggs in 1918 in Germany was the same amount of cash needed to buy just one egg in 1923.

Rapid inflation caused the government to rename the country's currency, replacing it with a paper mark, at a value of 4.2 per US dollar. Although the reissue of the banknote effectively stabilized the Weimar Republic until 1933, hyperinflation and the resulting economic pressures contributed to the rise of the Nazi Party and Adolf Hitler.

3- Zimbabwe inflation between 2007 and 2008

Zimbabwe's economic system was in trouble long before the start of the period of hyperinflation in 2007; The country's annual inflation rate reached 47% in 1998, and it continued to collapse almost relentlessly until Zimbabwe's hyperinflation began.

By the end of the period of inflation, the value of the Zimbabwean dollar had eroded to the point that it had to be exchanged for various foreign currencies.

The problem began after Zimbabwe gained independence from Great Britain in 1980, when the government initially decided to pursue a series of economic policies characterized by fiscal prudence and disciplined spending.

This improvement did not last. By late 1997, profligate government spending began to cause problems for its economy. Politicians faced a growing number of challenges, including protests against high taxes and large payments to veterans.

The government has also faced resistance to its plan to take over white-owned farms to redistribute them to the country's black majority, Insider reports.

Consequently, the exchange rate depreciated, which led to a rise in import prices, which in turn led to hyperinflation. The country suffered from cost-push inflation, a critical economic condition caused by rising prices for labor or raw materials, or both.

Things got worse in 2000 after the government's agrarian reform initiatives hit the economy. Implementation of the initiative was weak and agricultural production suffered severely for several years. Food supplies were low, which led to higher prices.

The government's next step was to implement a tight monetary policy. At first it was considered successful; Because it slowed inflation, however, the plan had unintended consequences.

It caused an imbalance in the supply and demand for goods in the country, generating a different type of inflation called demand-pull inflation, which is the upward pressure on prices caused by a lack of supply.

Zimbabwe's central bank has continued to experiment with various ways to undo the destabilizing effects of its tight monetary policy. These policies were largely unsuccessful. By March 2007, the country was experiencing overall hyperinflation. Only after Zimbabwe abandoned its currency and began using foreign currency as a medium of exchange did the country's economic disaster diminish and gradually recover.

4- Greater Hungary inflation in 1945 and 1946

In 1944, the country became a battleground between German and Russian forces, destroying 90% of its industrial capacity. The Nazis plundered much of the kingdom's capabilities and returned it to Germany, or the Russians confiscated it as reparations.

With this total collapse of production capacities, prices have risen dramatically. In an effort to reduce this, the Hungarian authorities intensified the circulation of the bingo currency. As with Germany, prices skyrocketed as a result of that move, doubling roughly every 15 hours.

According to the History Hit, something that cost 379 pingos in September 1945 had become a trillion bingo by July 1946. As a result, the government had to effectively stop collecting taxes; Because the delay of one day in the collection wiped out the value of the revenue completely.

At the height of inflation in the Kingdom of Hungary, a study published by the aforementioned website estimated that the daily inflation rate was 195%, with prices doubling approximately every 15.6 hours, to reach a monthly inflation rate of 13.6 quadrillion percent.

The situation was so dire that the government adopted a special currency that was created expressly for tax and postal payments and whose value was adjusted every day by radio.

The bingo was eventually replaced later that year in a currency revaluation, but it is estimated that when the currency was replaced in August 1946, the total of all Hungarian banknotes in circulation was equal to one thousandth of a US dollar. Rather than trying to curb inflation by reducing the money supply and increasing interest rates—policies that would have burdened an already deteriorating economy—the government decided to channel new money through the banking sector toward entrepreneurial activities. The hope was that this would help restore productive capacity, infrastructure and economic activity.

According to Investopedia, the plan appears to have worked; Hungary had regained much of its pre-war industrial capacity by the time price stability finally returned with the introduction of the forint, the new Hungarian currency, in August 1946.  LINK