Zig’s Place Chatroom News Friday PM 12-17-21

Zig’s Place Chatroom News Friday PM 12-17-21

Zig: Welcome to zig's place, a chat room for dinar speculators and others....discuss any topic that you wish here

Bobby Cahill   We will never ever see 140 implemented  The HCL could see the light of day but the Power Boys don't want it

Dave   Kurds wouldnt be Happy

Bobby Cahill   The Kurds are the one's who scrwed up 140 back in 2007 … In 2007 it was incumbent upon the Kurds to do a census, they never did ….   That could've started the 140 fulfillment actions

Dave   lol.......Maliki was Arabatizing those disputed territories...almost went to war

Bobby Cahill   In order to change the wording in 140, just like Kurdish Independence, requires a National Referendum. As 140 is written today, it would be impossible to activate …140 goes back to Sadam days

Dave   Seems Kurds have dug their heels in.....

Bobby Cahill    The Kurdish Government is just as bad, if not worse, than Baghdad

Dave   want 17% not 12%.....would be happy if they split the difference?

Bobby Cahill   well they say it's a Constitutional issue% wise, but if that's the case why not go to the Fed Court? Baghdad did when the Kurds went independence and got it squashed. So if it's in the Constitution, I haven't seen it. Now 140's there and that's where the facts come from

Dave   White Paper suggests get er DONE?  sadly a bridge to far to become a wealthy nation again

Dave   .0007.......

Bobby Cahill   You betcha because it's far reaching. Some say there's a rate there but that's BS. It does get Iraq to the point of a sustainable monetary and fiscal policy. If they abide by their own Constitution, Article 25 I believe, we'll get to the point of seeing delete the zeros. Not until then

Bobby Cahill   18 years in and they continue to ignore Article 25 lol

Dave   a RATE?

Bobby Cahill   Some more Guru BS. I think it was that crackhead Frank that said that

Dave   CBI i doubt is considering NODDA yet....

Dave   Have more banks in my small city than in all of IRAQ

Bobby Cahill   They've always said that a suitable environment is required. They look at the Monetary, Fiscal, Political and Social atmosphere to make that determination

Dave   Bingo....

Dave  1/3 of Iraqis have bank accounts

Dave  Banks make HUGE from loans........Fractional indexing

Bobby Cahill   IF IF IF they keep this current PM and this Parliament gets away from quotas, we'll have a chance. So far all indications are they will maintain the quotas so we'll just have to see actionable results well into 2022

Dave   ...and if elections were rigged.......?

Bobby Cahill   Well Iraq's banking Systems loan to debt ratio, and or bad loans, are why the IMF asked for a restructuring of the 2 big State owned Banks. They need a complete overhauls of their Banking System

Bobby Cahill   Elections? We'll find out the 22nd right?

Dave  Manual recount......again by the Court.....Transparency......

Bobby Cahill   That's how corruption is spun. Bad guys take out huge loans in fake names and launder/ clean the money. There's no record, no foul lol

Dave  or postpone and more delay...create another crisis

Bobby Cahill   That's why it's important for Iraq to go digital.

Bobby Cahill  Just me but Iraq is already in a Constitutional vaccum because they have a caretaker executive branch and no parliament lol;

Bobby Cahill   We need a Budget

Bobby Cahill   Maliki is untouchable

Dave   65 billion USD helps

Dave   SADR may argue that we shall see......

Bobby Cahill  Think about this. If he is so corrupt, which he probably is, why hasn't the US Treasury sanctioned him?

Dave   Corruption tops his agenda

Dave   Bobby Cahill Stuffs his mattress with USD?

Bobby Cahill   lol he must have one heckuva mattress  They could go after him, but Iraq would implode

Dave   Most top officials corrupt

Bobby Cahill  I saw you mentioned Sadr, what a *** he is

Dave   Hates USA fer bombing Iraq into obscurity looking fer WMD....

Dave  occupying forces still in Iraq?

Bobby Cahill   What forces?

Dave  US still have bases   …..  looking fer ISIS......

Bobby Cahill  The US and Coalition Forces were invited into Iraq by Sistani and the GOI, they aren't occupying

Dave  Sadr wants USA gone.......  so the news tells me

Bobby Cahill   We should be gone if we're not welcomed

Dave   DFI.......     thats SADR

Bobby Cahill   Investors will look for the same environment that the CBI asks for. Until then, we won't see the flow of Investment needed ….So yeah any outside assistance needs to be gone

Dave  no arguement from me

Bobby Cahill   Once gone then we see how stable Iraq really is

Dave   Stable now.....????lol

Bobby Cahill   Not too bad. ISIS is still an issue. Turkey bombing North Iraq is still happening then there's Iran

Bobby Cahill   Sistani inviting the grouping of Militia's screwed Iraq for years and is still a big ass issue

Bobby Cahill   Sorry for taking up so much time in the Chat Room

Bobby Cahill   This is a very complex investment and that's why the Gurus make zero sense on ANYTHING

Dave   Bobby Cahill Nice to have someone to chat about Iraq

Dave   do still have hope fer Iraq.......but its up to them

butterfly   My prediction on the US leaving.....ain't gonna happen for some time.

Bobby Cahill   This has always been fun for me. I remember I too listened to these idiots and that took about a week for me to realize how ignorant they really are. Found Pat and K over at DU FB and that's when I got really interested in this and did my own research

butterfly  Don't ever feel you are taking up chat time.

Dave   Only thing they have accomplished in 15 yrs is setting up the supreme court,,,,,,,who have yet to do nodda

Bobby Cahill   I agree Butterfly. What I would like to see is an agreement under the SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement) That would solidify our presence and appease Investors.. We have to differ btwn combat forces and sovereign forces. We haven't been combat for quiet awhile

butterfly   Some say, US out by end of year, then some say, nope they are staying. As usual, we will have to wait and see what happens.

Zig   Bobby Cahill : Are you the Bobby I heard on DP calls?

Dave  Zig you read?    need glasses? 

Bobby Cahill   100% Parliament has a standing order rejecting foreign forces and that's why a SOFA will be needed. It protects our Troops as well. Some have said 2,500 will remain

Dave  Bobby Cahill Good to see you here.....voice of reason

butterfly   I, personally, do not feel that we will completely withdraw.

Bobby Cahill   Yeah I've been on a few calls over the years.

Bobby Cahill   Thanks dave I'm still hoping for a ROI, just I don't dream as big as others lol

Dave  Tier 1...royalty rate

Dave  Zig encourages all perspectives

Zig  I wouldn't say I "encourage" all perspectives...everyone is welcome here though as long as he/she is civil...We don't kick people out for following Gurus...lol...

Dave   IQDTEAM indoctrinated me....was lucky i suppose

Bobby Cahill   They were good. Once anyone in this understands the basics/foundation, this is real easy to follow. Once we did that at DP, there wasn't much left to do as far as calls

Bobby Cahill   It has always, and will always, come down to the 4 stability's and 4 factors that govern Iraq

Bobby Cahill  If you get those 8, life's a lot easier

Dave  good foundation is good   ….  not that complicated......

Bobby Cahill   It really isn't. The hard part is understanding and remembering the recent history beginning in 2003. A lot happening today, has already happened lol From IMF SBA's to Donor Conferences, White Papers etc. It's ALL been tried before

Bobby Cahill   Now they need the Political will to just do it

Dave  Please.......Have hope in this White Paper...its our only hope........

Bobby Cahill   100% Will it continue if they have a new Executive Branch? That also includes this current Budget. Allawi says it's ready for a vote. Not if they don't retain office

Bobby Cahill  Since 2004 Iraq has always had what they call Iraq Vision (insert years here) and to today's date it's NEVER been followed That's always been their "White Paper" Now this current one is THE most detailed ever so fingers crossed

Bobby Cahill   There's also Iraq Development documents and Iraq Reconstruction documents out there that if they would have followed it, we may not be here talking

Bobby Cahill   Anyways appreciate ya letting me vent. Time to fry up some oysters, fish and cold beer (79 here in Texas) Have a great evening and hope to talk again

Dave  later....

Doug_W   Bobby Cahill I thot U were in La?

butterfly   An interesting article if you want to take the time to read it. Very long, but informative: World Arabic Language Day: Seven facts that will surprise you

Arabic is spoken by more than 400 million people across the Middle East and in diaspora communities across the world https://www.middleeasteye.net/discover/world-arabic-language-day-seven-facts-suprise

NORV   Bobby Cahill Dave is confusing the IMF 2% spread with floating the dinar. The IMF demands that Iraq maintain a stable dinar within 2% to eliminate mcp throughout Iraq. This is a requirement to move to IMF Article VIII. This has nothing to do with floating the dinar and how much it can rise.

That is determined by the type of float the CBI chooses. My expectations for the float when they decide to get off the peg will be like the other Middle East countries that currently float and it will be some sort of free float without restrictions or intervention.

 In any case, how fast it rises once they begin a float will be many factors. One thing I assure it will not rise significantly overnight and the IMF has already talked about this in the Article IV Consultation from 2013.

NORV   Here again is a specific quote..."staff encouraged the authorities to consider creating the conditions which would make possible a move to a more flexible exchange rate policy. Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, triggered by strong oil revenues and the Balassa-Samuelson effect, to accommodate a possible real exchange rate appreciation while keeping domestic inflation low.”

NORV   "Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate"

butterfly  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQwYdnzx2oo

NORV  That being said, the IMF clearly feels the Balassa-Samuelson effect may come into play the the definition clearly implies it could rise significantly.

NORV   Research on Balassa-Samuelson effect brings us this…

“In 1964, academics Bela Balassa, a Hungarian economist, and Paul Samuelson, a Nobel-Laureate economist, independently observed that countries with higher levels of productivity growth experienced rapidly rising real wages and so appreciating real exchange rates. Academic studies since have suggested the picture is not as simple as Mr Balassa and Mr Samuelson first thought and that many other factors can also influence the model.

However, many long term investors in emerging market currencies, for example, have been able to benefit from the appreciation of those currencies which is arguably due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect.”

The key here is the last sentence… “many long term investors in emerging market currencies, for example, have been able to benefit from the appreciation of those currencies which is arguably due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect.”

In other words, this reference to the “Balassa-Samuelson effect” hypothesis which in essence is described as “a rapidly expanding economy creates a rapidly appreciating exchange rate” will give us an opportunity to benefit from that appreciation.

NORV   :Float: :Float: :Float:

Bobby Cahill   Good stuff Kap. The 2% has been a head scratcher for me because I also see this written by the IMF on Exchange Restrictions and Multi Currency Practices......

Bobby Cahill  Iraq continues to avail itself of the transitional arrangements under Article XIV, Section 2 but no longer maintains any exchange restrictions or multiple currency practices subject to Article XIV, Section 2, and currently maintains one exchange restriction and one multiple currency practice (MCP) subject to Fund approval under Article VIII, Sections 2(a) and 3.

Bobby Cahill  Bear with me on this I suck at computers

Bobby Cahill  The government will gradually remove remaining exchange restrictions and a multiple currency practice (MCP) with a view to eliminating exchange rate distortions

Such a move towards acceptance of the obligations under Article VIII of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement will send a positive signal to the investor community that Iraq is committed to maintain an exchange system that is free of MCPs and restrictions for current international transactions and thus facilitate creation of a favorable business climate.

As a first step, on October 16, 2016, the CBI made the weekly limits on the purchase of banknotes at the foreign currency auctions indicative, in the sense that any bank requiring additional cash for their clients’ legitimate travel expenses can obtain the required amount above these limits based on appropriate documentation.

As a second step, the CBI issued clarifying implementing regulations, to remove the limitation on transfer of investment proceeds that gives rise to an exchange restriction (SB, Table 2).

Bobby Cahill  So my view of the ER and MCP differ from a lot in this investment. Now this is also based on a video Alaq (CBI) made while in Washington DC during that Banking Conference on Iraq's removal of all ER's and MCP's This may have been in 2017 as well, but don't quote me on the dates. Lemme see if I can paste that here

Bobby Cahill   https://youtu.be/oRv87HmZNQs

Bobby Cahill   Also here's the transcript if anyone's interested ......https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/iraqs-role-countering-islamic-states-finances

Bobby Cahill  Alaq........ The CBI has removed all exchange restrictions and multiple-currency practices. To maintain macroeconomic stability, the government is committed to pursuing its fiscal conservation efforts to bring spending in line with available resources in 2017.

Bobby Cahill  Bottom line is Iraq can neither support, nor sustain a rate outside of Iraq for the IQD. They 1st have to have economic growth away from State owned Entities and what I believe to be at least a 60/40, maybe 70/30 split between Oil and Non Oil Revenue . That's just me.

Zig   Bobby Cahill : Thanks...Feel free to promote DP here if you wish and vice versa....love to have more people active here....FYI Kaleigh was once a member here under a different name.....

Bobby Cahill   Nah we don't seek publicity. We just, well Shannon, post articles and if anyone has questions, we get em answered

Bobby Cahill   I think I just plugged DP lol  Kaleigh's very knowledgeable about this stuff

Zig  Bobby Cahill : Post a link to DP if you wish....

Bobby Cahill  I'll ask the owner. I will say they went away from FB once they started censoring conservative thinking and hooked up with MeWe. Thanks

Zig I am a member there but have not been there in a long time...I believe Doug is as well....

Zig I think at one time I was a member at over ten forums....lol....no longer....

Zig  If anyone has interest you can find an archive of Dinar Perspective's (DP) calls at https://www.iqdcalls.com/Dinar-Perspective.html I think the most recent was about a year ago....wow....

NORV   Bobby Cahill Iraq continues to have restrictions. What you refer to above are restrictions under Article XIV which they are in and compliant.

NORV  The one that remains is the 2% spread under Article VIII. They need to maintain 2% or less for 90 day. in the past they have achieved this for periods of time. Shabibi did it for a year, and Alaq did it for about 16 months. But neither exited from XIV to VIII for whatever reasons. The spread is important for multiple reason..such as showing the global banking system they are capable of maintaining a stable environment, and also to eliminate MCPs which is related cost of goods throughout the country.

NORV   The 90 day rule (which is discovered is factual) and printed in various IMF documents related to compliance. I would recommend reading some of the documents in the Research Library at DinarAlert .webs.com

NORV  DinarAlert.webs.com free to do so

Bobby Cahill   Kap I get that but I'll add who determines the street rate and which street rate is used in the 2% calculation? Every Region, and sometimes every street corner, has a different exchange rate. Now some will say that those vary within a few Dinars of each other but there still has to be a base correct?

If we see a +10 to a +20 IQD variance on the rate from the Auctions to the Banks to the Street, someone has to set the base 2% base or this will continue forever. I get what your saying and accept that but most read your take as that when Iraq is 90 day compliant the switch is flipped. They were compliant for a year and nothing happened. I see your point as a continuous situation and we'll continue to follow. Thanks

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