Zig’s Place Chatroom News Friday PM 12-17-21
Zig’s Place Chatroom News Friday PM 12-17-21
Zig: Welcome to zig's place, a chat room for dinar speculators and others....discuss any topic that you wish here
Bobby Cahill We will never ever see 140 implemented The HCL could see the light of day but the Power Boys don't want it
Dave Kurds wouldnt be Happy
Bobby Cahill The Kurds are the one's who scrwed up 140 back in 2007 … In 2007 it was incumbent upon the Kurds to do a census, they never did …. That could've started the 140 fulfillment actions
Dave lol.......Maliki was Arabatizing those disputed territories...almost went to war
Bobby Cahill In order to change the wording in 140, just like Kurdish Independence, requires a National Referendum. As 140 is written today, it would be impossible to activate …140 goes back to Sadam days
Dave Seems Kurds have dug their heels in.....
Bobby Cahill The Kurdish Government is just as bad, if not worse, than Baghdad
Dave want 17% not 12%.....would be happy if they split the difference?
Bobby Cahill well they say it's a Constitutional issue% wise, but if that's the case why not go to the Fed Court? Baghdad did when the Kurds went independence and got it squashed. So if it's in the Constitution, I haven't seen it. Now 140's there and that's where the facts come from
Dave White Paper suggests get er DONE? sadly a bridge to far to become a wealthy nation again
Dave .0007.......
Bobby Cahill You betcha because it's far reaching. Some say there's a rate there but that's BS. It does get Iraq to the point of a sustainable monetary and fiscal policy. If they abide by their own Constitution, Article 25 I believe, we'll get to the point of seeing delete the zeros. Not until then
Bobby Cahill 18 years in and they continue to ignore Article 25 lol
Dave a RATE?
Bobby Cahill Some more Guru BS. I think it was that crackhead Frank that said that
Dave CBI i doubt is considering NODDA yet....
Dave Have more banks in my small city than in all of IRAQ
Bobby Cahill They've always said that a suitable environment is required. They look at the Monetary, Fiscal, Political and Social atmosphere to make that determination
Dave Bingo....
Dave 1/3 of Iraqis have bank accounts
Dave Banks make HUGE from loans........Fractional indexing
Bobby Cahill IF IF IF they keep this current PM and this Parliament gets away from quotas, we'll have a chance. So far all indications are they will maintain the quotas so we'll just have to see actionable results well into 2022
Dave ...and if elections were rigged.......?
Bobby Cahill Well Iraq's banking Systems loan to debt ratio, and or bad loans, are why the IMF asked for a restructuring of the 2 big State owned Banks. They need a complete overhauls of their Banking System
Bobby Cahill Elections? We'll find out the 22nd right?
Dave Manual recount......again by the Court.....Transparency......
Bobby Cahill That's how corruption is spun. Bad guys take out huge loans in fake names and launder/ clean the money. There's no record, no foul lol
Dave or postpone and more delay...create another crisis
Bobby Cahill That's why it's important for Iraq to go digital.
Bobby Cahill Just me but Iraq is already in a Constitutional vaccum because they have a caretaker executive branch and no parliament lol;
Bobby Cahill We need a Budget
Bobby Cahill Maliki is untouchable
Dave 65 billion USD helps
Dave SADR may argue that we shall see......
Bobby Cahill Think about this. If he is so corrupt, which he probably is, why hasn't the US Treasury sanctioned him?
Dave Corruption tops his agenda
Dave Bobby Cahill Stuffs his mattress with USD?
Bobby Cahill lol he must have one heckuva mattress They could go after him, but Iraq would implode
Dave Most top officials corrupt
Bobby Cahill I saw you mentioned Sadr, what a *** he is
Dave Hates USA fer bombing Iraq into obscurity looking fer WMD....
Dave occupying forces still in Iraq?
Bobby Cahill What forces?
Dave US still have bases ….. looking fer ISIS......
Bobby Cahill The US and Coalition Forces were invited into Iraq by Sistani and the GOI, they aren't occupying
Dave Sadr wants USA gone....... so the news tells me
Bobby Cahill We should be gone if we're not welcomed
Dave DFI....... thats SADR
Bobby Cahill Investors will look for the same environment that the CBI asks for. Until then, we won't see the flow of Investment needed ….So yeah any outside assistance needs to be gone
Dave no arguement from me
Bobby Cahill Once gone then we see how stable Iraq really is
Dave Stable now.....????lol
Bobby Cahill Not too bad. ISIS is still an issue. Turkey bombing North Iraq is still happening then there's Iran
Bobby Cahill Sistani inviting the grouping of Militia's screwed Iraq for years and is still a big ass issue
Bobby Cahill Sorry for taking up so much time in the Chat Room
Bobby Cahill This is a very complex investment and that's why the Gurus make zero sense on ANYTHING
Dave Bobby Cahill Nice to have someone to chat about Iraq
Dave do still have hope fer Iraq.......but its up to them
butterfly My prediction on the US leaving.....ain't gonna happen for some time.
Bobby Cahill This has always been fun for me. I remember I too listened to these idiots and that took about a week for me to realize how ignorant they really are. Found Pat and K over at DU FB and that's when I got really interested in this and did my own research
butterfly Don't ever feel you are taking up chat time.
Dave Only thing they have accomplished in 15 yrs is setting up the supreme court,,,,,,,who have yet to do nodda
Bobby Cahill I agree Butterfly. What I would like to see is an agreement under the SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement) That would solidify our presence and appease Investors.. We have to differ btwn combat forces and sovereign forces. We haven't been combat for quiet awhile
butterfly Some say, US out by end of year, then some say, nope they are staying. As usual, we will have to wait and see what happens.
Zig Bobby Cahill : Are you the Bobby I heard on DP calls?
Dave Zig you read? need glasses?
Bobby Cahill 100% Parliament has a standing order rejecting foreign forces and that's why a SOFA will be needed. It protects our Troops as well. Some have said 2,500 will remain
Dave Bobby Cahill Good to see you here.....voice of reason
butterfly I, personally, do not feel that we will completely withdraw.
Bobby Cahill Yeah I've been on a few calls over the years.
Bobby Cahill Thanks dave I'm still hoping for a ROI, just I don't dream as big as others lol
Dave Tier 1...royalty rate
Dave Zig encourages all perspectives
Zig I wouldn't say I "encourage" all perspectives...everyone is welcome here though as long as he/she is civil...We don't kick people out for following Gurus...lol...
Dave IQDTEAM indoctrinated me....was lucky i suppose
Bobby Cahill They were good. Once anyone in this understands the basics/foundation, this is real easy to follow. Once we did that at DP, there wasn't much left to do as far as calls
Bobby Cahill It has always, and will always, come down to the 4 stability's and 4 factors that govern Iraq
Bobby Cahill If you get those 8, life's a lot easier
Dave good foundation is good …. not that complicated......
Bobby Cahill It really isn't. The hard part is understanding and remembering the recent history beginning in 2003. A lot happening today, has already happened lol From IMF SBA's to Donor Conferences, White Papers etc. It's ALL been tried before
Bobby Cahill Now they need the Political will to just do it
Dave Please.......Have hope in this White Paper...its our only hope........
Bobby Cahill 100% Will it continue if they have a new Executive Branch? That also includes this current Budget. Allawi says it's ready for a vote. Not if they don't retain office
Bobby Cahill Since 2004 Iraq has always had what they call Iraq Vision (insert years here) and to today's date it's NEVER been followed That's always been their "White Paper" Now this current one is THE most detailed ever so fingers crossed
Bobby Cahill There's also Iraq Development documents and Iraq Reconstruction documents out there that if they would have followed it, we may not be here talking
Bobby Cahill Anyways appreciate ya letting me vent. Time to fry up some oysters, fish and cold beer (79 here in Texas) Have a great evening and hope to talk again
Dave later....
Doug_W Bobby Cahill I thot U were in La?
butterfly An interesting article if you want to take the time to read it. Very long, but informative: World Arabic Language Day: Seven facts that will surprise you
Arabic is spoken by more than 400 million people across the Middle East and in diaspora communities across the world https://www.middleeasteye.net/discover/world-arabic-language-day-seven-facts-suprise
NORV Bobby Cahill Dave is confusing the IMF 2% spread with floating the dinar. The IMF demands that Iraq maintain a stable dinar within 2% to eliminate mcp throughout Iraq. This is a requirement to move to IMF Article VIII. This has nothing to do with floating the dinar and how much it can rise.
That is determined by the type of float the CBI chooses. My expectations for the float when they decide to get off the peg will be like the other Middle East countries that currently float and it will be some sort of free float without restrictions or intervention.
In any case, how fast it rises once they begin a float will be many factors. One thing I assure it will not rise significantly overnight and the IMF has already talked about this in the Article IV Consultation from 2013.
NORV Here again is a specific quote..."staff encouraged the authorities to consider creating the conditions which would make possible a move to a more flexible exchange rate policy. Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, triggered by strong oil revenues and the Balassa-Samuelson effect, to accommodate a possible real exchange rate appreciation while keeping domestic inflation low.”
NORV "Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate"
butterfly https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQwYdnzx2oo
NORV That being said, the IMF clearly feels the Balassa-Samuelson effect may come into play the the definition clearly implies it could rise significantly.
NORV Research on Balassa-Samuelson effect brings us this…
“In 1964, academics Bela Balassa, a Hungarian economist, and Paul Samuelson, a Nobel-Laureate economist, independently observed that countries with higher levels of productivity growth experienced rapidly rising real wages and so appreciating real exchange rates. Academic studies since have suggested the picture is not as simple as Mr Balassa and Mr Samuelson first thought and that many other factors can also influence the model.
However, many long term investors in emerging market currencies, for example, have been able to benefit from the appreciation of those currencies which is arguably due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect.”
The key here is the last sentence… “many long term investors in emerging market currencies, for example, have been able to benefit from the appreciation of those currencies which is arguably due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect.”
In other words, this reference to the “Balassa-Samuelson effect” hypothesis which in essence is described as “a rapidly expanding economy creates a rapidly appreciating exchange rate” will give us an opportunity to benefit from that appreciation.
NORV :Float: :Float: :Float:
Bobby Cahill Good stuff Kap. The 2% has been a head scratcher for me because I also see this written by the IMF on Exchange Restrictions and Multi Currency Practices......
Bobby Cahill Iraq continues to avail itself of the transitional arrangements under Article XIV, Section 2 but no longer maintains any exchange restrictions or multiple currency practices subject to Article XIV, Section 2, and currently maintains one exchange restriction and one multiple currency practice (MCP) subject to Fund approval under Article VIII, Sections 2(a) and 3.
Bobby Cahill Bear with me on this I suck at computers
Bobby Cahill The government will gradually remove remaining exchange restrictions and a multiple currency practice (MCP) with a view to eliminating exchange rate distortions
Such a move towards acceptance of the obligations under Article VIII of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement will send a positive signal to the investor community that Iraq is committed to maintain an exchange system that is free of MCPs and restrictions for current international transactions and thus facilitate creation of a favorable business climate.
As a first step, on October 16, 2016, the CBI made the weekly limits on the purchase of banknotes at the foreign currency auctions indicative, in the sense that any bank requiring additional cash for their clients’ legitimate travel expenses can obtain the required amount above these limits based on appropriate documentation.
As a second step, the CBI issued clarifying implementing regulations, to remove the limitation on transfer of investment proceeds that gives rise to an exchange restriction (SB, Table 2).
Bobby Cahill So my view of the ER and MCP differ from a lot in this investment. Now this is also based on a video Alaq (CBI) made while in Washington DC during that Banking Conference on Iraq's removal of all ER's and MCP's This may have been in 2017 as well, but don't quote me on the dates. Lemme see if I can paste that here
Bobby Cahill https://youtu.be/oRv87HmZNQs
Bobby Cahill Also here's the transcript if anyone's interested ......https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/iraqs-role-countering-islamic-states-finances
Bobby Cahill Alaq........ The CBI has removed all exchange restrictions and multiple-currency practices. To maintain macroeconomic stability, the government is committed to pursuing its fiscal conservation efforts to bring spending in line with available resources in 2017.
Bobby Cahill Bottom line is Iraq can neither support, nor sustain a rate outside of Iraq for the IQD. They 1st have to have economic growth away from State owned Entities and what I believe to be at least a 60/40, maybe 70/30 split between Oil and Non Oil Revenue . That's just me.
Zig Bobby Cahill : Thanks...Feel free to promote DP here if you wish and vice versa....love to have more people active here....FYI Kaleigh was once a member here under a different name.....
Bobby Cahill Nah we don't seek publicity. We just, well Shannon, post articles and if anyone has questions, we get em answered
Bobby Cahill I think I just plugged DP lol Kaleigh's very knowledgeable about this stuff
Zig Bobby Cahill : Post a link to DP if you wish....
Bobby Cahill I'll ask the owner. I will say they went away from FB once they started censoring conservative thinking and hooked up with MeWe. Thanks
Zig I am a member there but have not been there in a long time...I believe Doug is as well....
Zig I think at one time I was a member at over ten forums....lol....no longer....
Zig If anyone has interest you can find an archive of Dinar Perspective's (DP) calls at https://www.iqdcalls.com/Dinar-Perspective.html I think the most recent was about a year ago....wow....
NORV Bobby Cahill Iraq continues to have restrictions. What you refer to above are restrictions under Article XIV which they are in and compliant.
NORV The one that remains is the 2% spread under Article VIII. They need to maintain 2% or less for 90 day. in the past they have achieved this for periods of time. Shabibi did it for a year, and Alaq did it for about 16 months. But neither exited from XIV to VIII for whatever reasons. The spread is important for multiple reason..such as showing the global banking system they are capable of maintaining a stable environment, and also to eliminate MCPs which is related cost of goods throughout the country.
NORV The 90 day rule (which is discovered is factual) and printed in various IMF documents related to compliance. I would recommend reading some of the documents in the Research Library at DinarAlert .webs.com
NORV DinarAlert.webs.com free to do so
Bobby Cahill Kap I get that but I'll add who determines the street rate and which street rate is used in the 2% calculation? Every Region, and sometimes every street corner, has a different exchange rate. Now some will say that those vary within a few Dinars of each other but there still has to be a base correct?
If we see a +10 to a +20 IQD variance on the rate from the Auctions to the Banks to the Street, someone has to set the base 2% base or this will continue forever. I get what your saying and accept that but most read your take as that when Iraq is 90 day compliant the switch is flipped. They were compliant for a year and nothing happened. I see your point as a continuous situation and we'll continue to follow. Thanks
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