What Does The Iraqi Government Fear?
Fortifying The Green Zone And Closing Bridges... What Does The Iraqi Government Fear?
The measures in Iraq do not stop at fortifying the Green Zone, as some of the capital’s bridges linking its two sides (Karkh and Rusafa) are witnessing cuts, while activists circulated videos showing the security forces beginning to build iron gates on the bridges.
Fortifications in the Green Zone in Baghdad (communication sites)
Ahmed Al-Dabbagh 9/14/2022
For days, the security forces in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, have been working to fortify the Green Zone, which includes government and international headquarters, in addition to the offices of the United Nations mission and Western embassies. In the past, which demonstrators loyal to the Sadrist movement managed to bring down in previous demonstrations.
The measures are not limited to fortifying the Green Zone only, as some of the capital’s bridges linking its two sides (Karkh and Rusafa) are witnessing cuts, while activists circulated videos showing the security forces beginning to build iron gates on the Al-Jumhuriya and Al-Sinak bridges, in addition to the suspension bridge.
READ ALSO
Will Al-Halbousi and Barzani disappoint Al-Sadr and ally with Al-Maliki to form an Iraqi government?
Leaks in Iraq..a crisis erupting. Will it lead to the overthrow of political figures?
As a result of popular discontent on social networking sites, the Baghdad Operations Command made it clear that cutting the Jumhuriya Bridge was for maintenance purposes, while it did not comment on the photos circulated by activists about the construction of iron gates on the bridge.
The fortifications that the security forces are working on in Baghdad raise many questions about their causes and whether the security services are anticipating something or fearing a security emergency, while the Iraqi Ministry of Interior refused to comment or disclose any information after Al-Jazeera Net correspondent attempts to inquire about what is happening.
Days after the start of erecting the iron gates on the Al-Jumhuriya and Al-Sinak bridges, Iraqi media reported this morning, Wednesday, that Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi ordered the lifting of the iron gates and only the traditional security measures, while no government statement was issued to this either from the Security Media Cell or from the Operations Command. Baghdad.
Fortifying the Green Zone and closing bridges... What does the Iraqi government fear? 003Al-Sharifi: The capital is witnessing an unprecedented mass resentment and social division (communication sites)
What Is The Government Afraid Of?
The political blockage still prevails in Iraq, more than 11 months after the legislative elections that did not lead to the formation of a new government, which led to a lot of complexity in the political scene that led to sit-ins and mass demonstrations for supporters of the Sadrist movement in the Green Zone after the resignation of its deputies in June / Last June, these demonstrations turned into armed clashes on August 29 inside the Green Zone that lasted more than 24 hours.
The government’s fear, according to observers, comes as a result of the insistence of the coordination framework (which includes Shiite forces with the exception of the Sadrist movement) to form a government, which is rejected by the Sadrist movement, which has vowed that any new government will not be formed without achieving the reforms it demands, which may indicate new popular demonstrations. Accompanied by calls from the October 2019 protesters to return to the demonstrations again.
Commenting on the foregoing, Ahmed Al-Sharifi, a security researcher and strategist, believes that the upcoming political events have led to the fortification of the Green Zone, as the traditional deterrence mechanisms, which include riot control forces and security barriers, cannot stand in the way of any mass movement that the coming days may witness.
Al-Sharifi, who is in Baghdad, confirms that the capital is witnessing an unprecedented mass resentment and social division in overlapping areas between the parties of the political forces that own weapons, pointing out that if the security situation deteriorates, this will drag the country into ominous consequences, with the inability of the forces The security forces decided to stop them, based on the fact that there are many loyalties within the security system, which may lead to the division of these forces according to loyalties, as he put it.
Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Sharifi believes that the iron gates and the Green Zone fortifications constitute obstacles, but they will not stop the expected mass advance, pointing out that these measures have raised the level of anxiety among Iraqis as a result of expectations of an escalation in the coming days, specifically after the end of the visit of the fortieth visit ceremonies of the Shiites in September 20th.
Fortifying the Green Zone and closing bridges... What does the Iraqi government fear? 7-8Abu Ragheef warned that there is a state of alert afflicting all political blocs, as if something would happen in the coming days (Al Jazeera Net)
Security Escalation
According to Al-Sharifi, the government’s initiation of such measures came as a result of its anticipation of the possibility of escalation, with its prior knowledge that traditional deterrence measures will not be sufficient, which may mean that mass movements will be harsh with the government’s inability to stop them and what may threaten civil peace.
Al-Sharifi continues that what raises suspicion is that the fortifications included the Green Zone, which includes departments and ministries only, without paying attention to the possibility that a settling of scores will occur between the parties to the political process in other areas of Baghdad, especially with all the political parties threatening to use force.
On the other hand, security and military researcher Fadel Abu Ragheef comments on the fortifications of the Green Zone, saying, that there is a state of alert ravaging all political blocs as if something will happen in the coming days, and that this extrapolation is not by the political forces alone, but even by the residents of Baghdad who They resorted to stockpiling foodstuffs for fear of an event similar to the events at the end of last month.
Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Abu Ragheef, who is close to the country's decision-making circles, continues that the same political blocs believe that there is an escalation that will occur after the "Forty Visit" without having any clear information, which may mean that everyone is moving towards the unknown, as he put it. .
To remedy this, according to Abu Ragheef, he stresses that the country needs what he described as “rationalizing” the political and media discourse, especially since there are many instigators, and therefore these fortifications are consistent with the state of apprehension and a preventive state, especially as it is one of the obstacles that will delay the outbreak of any situation Violence similar to what happened two weeks ago in Baghdad, he said.
Regarding the link between the security file and its political counterpart, Abu Ragheef concludes by noting that the security tension is linked to the political, and if the latter continues, there is a possibility of security frictions, believing that the political situation will continue to fluctuate between the parties to the political process, but in a way that is not bloody, according to his opinion.
Fortifying the Green Zone and closing bridges... What does the Iraqi government fear?
Iraqi army removes concrete barriers after the events in the Green Zone at the end of last month
Multiple scenarios
The escalation of political differences indicates many scenarios, according to political researcher Ghanem Al-Abed, who believes that the Iraqi situation has become complicated, and that there is no hope on the horizon to get out of the current crisis, and that the fortieth visit of the Shiites, which will end on September 20, is what worked on Postponing the worsening of the security and political situation.
As for the expected scenarios, Al-Abed comments, “All scenarios will be open, especially since the recent political moves of the coordination framework and his insistence on forming a government led by Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, rejected by the Sadrist movement, will lead the latter to resort to the street again, and will prevent the formation of this government in light of the failure of any of the parties to concede.” , Which could lead to an armed clash like the one that happened at the end of last month.
Fortifying the Green Zone and closing bridges... What does the Iraqi government fear? 11-16Al-Abed: There are calls from the October movement to demonstrate, which may add more complexity to the Iraqi scene (Al-Jazeera Net)
international intervention
Al-Abed continues, in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, that this expected escalation is accompanied by the third anniversary of the start of the October 2019 demonstrations, as there are calls to demonstrate again, which may add more complexity, which will pave the way for international intervention in the country, as he put it.
For his part, political analyst Ghaleb al-Damamy describes the Iraqi scene as thorny and difficult to predict, especially since the two sides of the dispute represented by the coordination framework and the Sadrist movement are moving in opposite directions without any possibility of agreement, with each party working to exclude the other.
Al-Dami, in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, does not rule out the launch of new popular demonstrations in Baghdad and other governorates with the participation of the Tishreen movement protesters who object to the performance of political parties, which will lead to a new wave of clash, commenting, "The clash will only happen in one case, which is the implementation of the vision of the Alliance of Sovereignty and the Kurdistan Democratic Party calling." To replace the coordinating framework filter with an acceptable one from the Sadrist movement.
Al-Daami believes that international positions may be among the proposed scenarios, which may discourage the framework from its insistence and demand it to reach an understanding with the Sadrist movement, based on the possibility of an international wave not accepting any government formed by the framework away from the alliances of the Sadrist movement, sovereignty and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, according to him.
Source : Al Jazeera LINK