"Tidbits From TNT" Wednesday Morning 11-24-2021

Nov 24

TNT:

Tishwash: Iranian forces in Iraq threaten to assassinate Blackshart and demand the annulment of the election results

The transfer of a leader in one of the armed factions attended the meeting of the forces opposing the elections with the representative of the United Nations in Baghdad aspects of that hot meeting.

The source said that Jenin Plasschaert, the United Nations representative in Iraq, attended a meeting of Shiite forces to review the evidence Collected by those forces about electoral fraud.

According to the source, the leader of one of the armed factions, Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, whose real name is Ahmed Mohsen Faraj, has been killed During the meeting, he threatened the international envoy, Plasschaert, in direct and face-to-face speech, telling her with the letter (that if It was proven in their investigations that it is closely or remotely related to the outcome of the Iraqi elections He will respond appropriately to it.

The word (appropriate response) has a well-known connotation in the dictionary of armed factions, which usually refers to targeting the party that He is under threat, which the attendees interpreted as an explicit threat to Blackshart to bomb its headquarters or assassinate it.

Al-Hamidawi addressed the attendees by saying: If you want a civil war, no one will blame it, even you, and if you want something Else we are able to make you live safely!!

The former Iraqi Prime Minister, Nuri al-Maliki, and the head of the Wisdom Movement, Ammar al-Hakim, had attended part of the meeting Forces objecting to the elections.

Observers in Baghdad say that Blackschaert accepted the challenge and submitted its report to the Security Council in which it confirmed that the elections Al-Iraqiya took place with high professionalism and they did not look like any fraud.

During her briefing to the Security Council on the Iraq elections, Blackshart said: There is no evidence of fraud Or systematic fraud in the Iraqi elections, and any illegal attempt to change the election results will backfire on their owners .

For his part, a spokesman for the Al-Fateh coalition, which includes forces loyal to Iran in Iraq, said that his coalition Filed a lawsuit to the Federal Court to annul the election results.

Mahmoud Al-Rubaie said that the Al-Fateh coalition submitted a lawsuit to the Federal Court demanding not to ratify the results Elections and issuing a state order to annul the results and hold other elections at a later time link

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Tishwash: How does Iraq manage its financial affairs in the absence of approving the budget?

Adviser to the Prime Minister for Financial Affairs, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, revealed the mechanism that will be followed with the delay in approving the general budget for the year 2022.

Salih said in an interview with “Mawazine News” that “the Financial Management Law addresses the delay in approving the budget from the exchange through 1/ 12, which is the minimum treatment of the Financial Management Act in force.

He pointed out that "the registration of a defect in approving the budget for some reason, such as the constitutional vacuum and the lack of agreement on the budget. The Financial Management Law authorizes the government's authority to dispose of the actual expenditures that occurred in 2021."

He stressed that "the delay in approving the budget will not affect the payment of salaries, because it is among the exchange items mentioned above." link

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Tishwash: Policy choices for Government to design economic master programme (Vietnam)

Việt Nam’s Government is planning a master programme to gear up for a post-pandemic recovery, which this time requires sophisticated organisation and effective implementation to ensure long-term efficiency.

With more and more scientists predicting that COVID-19 may never disappear, global policymakers are trying to avoid further lockdowns and have shifted their focus to recovery. Thus, policies that drive the economy in the long term will be the centrepiece of the post-pandemic programme.

“A master programme on economic recovery and development at this time is very necessary and needs to be promulgated and implemented soon,” Phan Đức Hiếu, a National Assembly deputy from Thái Bình Province and Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), told Việt Nam News.

The world has experienced unprecedented challenges from the COVID-19 crisis in the last two years and many governments, including Việt Nam, have introduced extraordinary stimulus packages to revive their economies.

In Việt Nam, the total amount of tax and State budget revenue that has been extended, exempted and reduced in 2020 reached VNĐ129 trillion (US$5.6 billion). In 2021, besides some policies issued in 2020, more support policies on taxes and fees have been introduced with an estimated scale of about VNĐ140 trillion.

The prolonged pandemic has significantly reduced the health of people and the financial capacity of businesses. The number of firms shutting down, dissolving, and leaving the market reached the highest level in many years. Several surveys also showed that businesses are facing both financial and market difficulties.

In the first session of the 15th National Assembly in July 2021, the Government was tasked to study and develop a programme on economic recovery and development.

“It should be noted that this is not simply a stimulus package and has yet to say how big it is. However, this economic recovery and development programme must be big enough and long enough to spearhead the economy in the long term,” Hiếu said.

Support measures were mostly aimed at tackling urgent situations. The pandemic has posed unprecedented difficulties for policymakers to issue both timely and effective solutions, thus many policies in the latter stages have been issued based on experience from previous solutions.

The socio-economic recovery and development programme this time will be fundamentally different from the previous policies in terms of the overall goal and long-term vision.

Hiếu said the plan must include both economic and social solutions, comprise different measures ranging from fiscal, monetary, and technical support and cover different subjects, industries, and fields to not only help restore production and business activities but also create room for sustainable development in the long run.

“In principle, this programme must ensure the basic requirements: support measures must be appropriate, meet the right needs and the right targets; in the long term create changes in the business model towards a strong digital transformation and sustainable development – with the goal of not following the old path but must develop strongly on the new road,” Hiếu said.

“Thus, there must be an effective, timely and comprehensive implementation mechanism.”

Policy space

The Government has only a few choices on its plate right now given shrinking space for fiscal and monetary policy.

According to Nguyễn Minh Tân, deputy director of the State Budget Department under the Ministry of Finance, the efforts to keep the State budget deficit at 4 per cent of GDP in 2021 (equivalent to about 5.1 per cent of unadjusted GDP) according to the estimate approved by the National Assembly last November and expected 4 per cent of GDP in 2022 is pressuring the State budget balance in the coming years.

Amid the pandemic challenge, the pressure is great to ensure the average budget deficit within 3.7 per cent of GDP in the five-year period pursuant to the national financial plan, public borrowing, and debt payment plan for the 2021-25 period adopted in July this year.

Besides, the budget collection is also a challenge in the future given the fact that the businesses and economy need a longer time to recover. In its October report, the International Monetary Fund projected the world economy to grow 4.9 per cent in 2022, lower than 5.9 per cent in 2021.

Additionally, the continued implementation of tax exemption and reduction to support enterprises and enormous expenditure on disease prevention and control will also create pressure on the state budget balance, especially the central budget.

Some experts however believe there is still some room in the design of support measures.

According to Cấn Văn Lực, chief economist of the Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV), the budget deficit and public debt have been controlled in the previous period and are lower than other countries in the region which will provide the opportunity to increase domestic debt (through the issuance of government bonds) to collect more resources to finance pandemic control and economic recovery.

Lực said the current scale of fiscal support is still quite modest so the public debt and budget deficit should be increased to supplement support packages, focusing on cash support, fee/cost reduction, credit guarantees and preferential loans (interest support) rather than tax deferrals and debt repayment obligations.

However, Hiếu cautioned to calculate potential domestic and international macro risks and the efficiency of fiscal and monetary policies.

“An important point in minimising macro risks is to pay special attention to the effectiveness of this programme – the more effectiveness increases, the more risk decreases and vice versa,” he said.

The Government has assigned the Ministry of Planning and Investment to coordinate with the Ministry of Finance and the State Bank of Việt Nam and relevant agencies to complete the socio-economic recovery and development programme and report to the Government before submitting it to the National Assembly at its special session in December 2021.

The master plan aims at not only solving short-term problems but more importantly to bring Việt Nam's economy back to a new growth cycle, re-establishing the growth momentum in the medium and long term. link

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