"Tidbits From TNT" Friday Morning 11-12-2021

TNT:

Tishwash:  An Iraqi alliance demands the government to restore the dollar exchange rate

Al-Quds Al-Arabi: The "National Approach" coalition in Iraq considered, yesterday, Thursday, the previous government decision to raise the value of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar, the most prominent reasons for the high rates of poverty in Iraq, which exceeded 30%, calling on the federal government to restore the exchange rate to what it is. It had been in the past, and to reverse its decision, which he described as “blundering.”

And a statement by the coalition said yesterday, "The complications and effects of the decision to raise the unfair exchange rate of the dollar are still continuing and increasing, and its shocks are intensifying on the majority of the Iraqi people," noting that "the Ministry of Planning indicated terrifying numbers and percentages in the escalation of poverty and unemployment rates, which amounted to 31 percent, out of the total The people, and stressed that one of the most important causes of these tragedies is the decision to raise the price of the dollar.”

He continued: “We have explained on more than one occasion the error of this decision and that the justifications for its marketing are flimsy and invalid, whether they are justifications for filling the budget deficit, as the selling price of oil has risen to nearly $84 per barrel, or justifications for combating the smuggling of hard currency.

The Central Bank’s sales of the dollar in the currency auction did not drop below its selling levels before the decision so that we believe that the fruit of the fight against hard currency smuggling has been achieved. On the contrary, the rates of the Central Bank’s selling of the dollar began to exceed even what it was sold before the unjust decision to raise the price of the dollar. 

He pointed to what he described as “the confusion of decision-makers in the authority and their neglect to notice the harsh social effects of their improvised, ill-considered decisions, and their lack of the courage to admit error and review failed decisions, despite the severity of the bill of this confusion and its cost by millions of affected Iraqis.”

The National Approach coalition, affiliated with the Islamic Virtue Party, called for “addressing the causes of increasing unemployment and poverty rates, and for the government to begin restoring the dollar’s ​​price to what it was, and working to implement social justice and its equitable standards in distributing wealth and public budget resources without political favours.” And closing all the outlets of waste and corruption, many of which hide in vague overall addresses or in entertainment resources far from the necessary needs of citizens.”

He pointed out that "the stability and security of the social system is linked to addressing the causes of the accumulated grievances of millions of citizens and reviewing unjust and wrong economic decisions to be consistent with meeting the citizen's need and alleviating his suffering, not producing more illegal gains for the influential and those who hold the decision and power."  link

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Tishwash:  The Iranian Toman is declining to unprecedented levels

The exchange rate of the US dollar continues to rise on the Iranian free market, as it reached unprecedented levels, recording 28,500 tomans. (is 285,000)

The rise in the value of the dollar comes despite the fact that on October 17, the Iranian President, Ibrahim Raisi, called on the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy to stop the growth of the exchange rate and the devaluation of the riyal.

Officials in Iran did not say the reason for the sharp rise in the value of the dollar, but the country's treasury stated a few months ago that only "three percent" of oil revenues were generated in the spring of this year.  link

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Tishwash:  The Western world is talking about counterproductive results that were achieved after the assassination attempt: Al-Kazemi is today stronger, and closer to a second term

Most observers in the countries of the Western world, especially in Washington, agree that the failed attempt to assassinate Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi, apparently counter-productive to what the perpetrators wanted. Instead of deterring and weakening Al-Kazemi, the opposite happened, as he is now stronger than before, and gave him a better chance to survive for a second term of government, and at the same time increased the ability of Mr. Al-Kazemi and Mr. Al-Sadr to promote reforms and confront armed militias operating outside the framework of the government. .

Despite the condemnation of Iran and the armed factions, the failed attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi, last Sunday, the general context of the events of confrontations and violence, Friday, and the besieging of demonstrators affiliated with the factions, the Green Zone and their attack by the Iraqi security forces, and the previous threats made by known leaders of the armed factions Through their various media channels against the prime minister, all of them were a sufficient indication of the desire of Iran and the losing parties in last (October) elections to obstruct the re-choice of Al-Kazemi for a second term of government, or at least warn Al-Sadr, who will play the main role in this choice, of the consequences of excluding the losing parties. from the new government.

While there is no clear evidence of a role for Iran in the attack, but the US Department of Defense insists that there are fingerprints of Tehran in the attempt, as well as initial reports indicating that the operation was carried out by two political parties belonging to the armed factions backed by Iran, so it is unlikely that they were directed An assassination strike against the prime minister without the Iranian sponsor's blessing, according to Nathan Sales, a researcher in the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program.

Sales believes that "the United States should hold Tehran accountable for deterring further attacks by the regime and its proxies, work with Iraqi partners to marginalize the factions, bring them under state control, and reduce Iranian activity in Iraq, and it should not lead the Joe Biden administration's desire to restore the nuclear agreement." Iran is to overlook the continued Iranian interference against the Iraqi partner.”

In contrast to Sales, Barbara Slavin, director of the Future of Iran Initiative, believes that the perpetrators of the attack on Al-Kadhimi may have done so without the express consent of Tehran, even though Iran is the likely source of the armed drones. And the one used in the attempt, and it hopes that the attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi will serve as a wake-up call for Tehran to try to rein in the factions and persuade it to accept the results of the recent parliamentary elections, because it is not in Iran’s interest to see Iraq turn into chaos.

David Ignatius, a writer in the "Washington Post" newspaper, notes that the attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi shocked many Iraqis, whose desires were clear in the elections. And its attempt to spoil the victory of the nationalist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr with the largest bloc of parliament seats, especially as he tried, like Al-Kazemi, to distance himself from subordination to Iran, and promised that he would not leave Iraq in the grip of Tehran.

opposite result

While it is not yet clear how the incident will affect negotiations between Iraqi political factions over government formation as they wait for the official result to be announced so far, the failed assassination attempt has backfired, as many Washington observers expect, including Randa Salim, director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute. Al-Awsat, which considered that the idea of ​​assassinating the Iraqi prime minister crossed the red line, and that the behavior of Iran and the Iraqi armed factions represented a short-sighted step, reflecting their increasing despair and a complete lack of any strategic thinking, which would make the chance of Al-Kazemi winning a second term almost certain.

This expectation is based on the fact that the assassination attempt would increase discord between members of the Shiite coordination framework, which is the group that brings together Shiite parties competing in the election results, as the attack will further incite some against the Iranian-backed Iraqi factions, and the assassination attempt will weaken the cause that they adopted The Shiite coordination framework regarding electoral fraud, and this is good news for Al-Sadr, whose political bloc won the largest number of parliamentary seats.

As for the second effect that could result from the assassination attempt, it is the resolving of the political stalemate that has prevailed since the announcement of the election results, which was represented in the split between the winner Al-Sadr, who wanted to form a majority government, and the coordination framework that called for canceling the elections, as the situation seemed intractable and did not None of the parties was interested in reaching a compromise, but now the assassination attempt is likely to open the impasse and create common ground between the political blocs as a result of the Iraqis' fear of more instability, and this will be the basis for starting negotiations, so that Sadr and the coordination framework will eventually reach Eventually, a compromise was reached to form a consensus government and to divide the seats among them.

The latest news indicates that a negotiating political meeting took place between a team from the Sadrist movement and a team from the coordination framework.

Tehran did not understand the message

Anthony Pugh, a Middle East researcher, concurs with this analysis, who considered that the defeat of Iran-backed political parties in the parliamentary elections was supposed to send a message that seizing and maintaining power through violence and intimidation could not go on forever. The attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi clearly indicates that Iran did not understand the message, and if the Iraqis attributed the attack to the Iranian-backed factions and took to the streets again as they did last year to protest Iranian interference, this would be a harbinger of violence and counter-violence. To calm in the aftermath of the attack marked by wisdom.

The attack could provide an opportunity for the Iraqi government to rein in loose weapons, especially since the victory of the Sadrist movement would support the Iraqi leadership's popularity enough to move forward with legislation and other reforms that would change its status as independent structures within the Iraqi security forces, as well as try to reduce or eliminate its access to what It receives approximately $2.4 billion annually from the Iraqi government. While such legislation may not see the light of day, the threat of it could pressure armed factions to limit their activities.  link

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