News, Rumors and Opinions Tuesday Afternoon 3-8-2022
KTFA
Samson: The arrest of employees of the Retirement Department in Mosul on charges of “bargaining and manipulation”
8th March, 2022
A security source in Nineveh Governorate reported on Tuesday that a security force had arrested employees of the retirement department in the city of Mosul on various charges.
The source told Shafaq News Agency, that a security force arrested today 5 employees of the retirement department in Mosul on various charges, including bargaining with retirees and tampering with their files to obtain sums of money in order to complete their transactions.
According to the source, there are other employees against whom arrest warrants were issued, but they were not in the department at the time the arrest warrant was executed against them. LINK
Samson: The noise of prices..a wave of arrests affecting dozens of those involved in greed
8th March, 2022
Today, Tuesday, the Security Media Cell announced the arrest of 31 people, who raised food prices, in several governorates.
The cell said in a statement that “Nass” received a copy of it (March 8, 2022), that “after the failed attempt by some weak-minded people to raise food prices in markets and stores, and with the aim of standing by the Federal Intelligence and Investigations Agency in the Ministry of Interior, with the aim of standing by the Federal Intelligence and Investigations Agency in the Ministry of Interior, The agency’s detachments embarked on a major campaign during the past two days in various governorates of the country.
She added, “The agency has mobilized its efforts to eliminate these cases, and was able to arrest 31 violators of those who raised food prices and exploited citizens.”
And she added, “The intelligence agency warns anyone who tries to tamper with the security of the economy and will not allow any violation of the law, and it will strike an iron fist during this intense campaign.” LINK
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Samson: Moscow intends to pay off the debts of “unfriendly” countries in Russian rubles
8th March, 2022
The Russian government announced its intention to pay off the debts of “unfriendly countries” in the Russian local currency.
Al-Arabiya published a list of countries declared unfriendly by Russia, which came as follows: “The United States, European Union countries, the United Kingdom, Canada, Montenegro, Switzerland, Albania, Andorra, Iceland, and Liechtenstein.” The list also included: “Monaco, Norway, San Marino, Macedonia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Micronesia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan.” ?
Al-Arabiya stated that Russia included in the list the countries and territories that imposed or joined the sanctions against Moscow, against the backdrop of the Ukrainian war, noting that Russian companies will be able to repay their debts in the local currency, the ruble.
On Monday, the White House issued a statement, saying that the United States, France, Germany and Britain intended to incur a heavy cost to Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.
In the same context, an official in the administration of US President Joe Biden said that Washington has not yet decided its decision on imposing an embargo on Russian oil imports, according to “Fox News”. The leaders of the United States, Germany, France and Britain again called on Russia to immediately withdraw its forces from Ukraine. LINK
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Frank26 I believe...Mustafa is now asking for the IMF to once again reconsider the NEER (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate). The NEER is the start of the calculations and the REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) is the end. What they've established is a spectrum...to where they truly want to reach...they recalculated the exchange rate and they used the PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) IMO...a comparison of a basket of goods and services...from there you calculate... the NEER...that is the least you can do the exchange rate...we are now able to calculate the REER according to the price of a barrel of oil right now...They determined the the NEER...was above $1.00...it was determined the recalculation of the REER is $1.50...
Another SUPER-TSUNAMI OF INFLATION IS ABOUT TO HIT. U.S. To BAN Russian Oil Imports. MORE!
Greg Mannarino: 3-8-2022
Will China become the Global Economic Superpower in 2030 and Why ?
The Nomad Economist: Premiered 14 minutes ago
If you asked people in the 1600s who would be the dominant global power, most would have said Spain. They would have been proven wrong within 100 years.
If you asked people in the late 1800s who would be the dominant global power, most would have said Great Britain. Huge empire, coming out of the industrial revolution, huge navy, etc. And they would have been wrong within 50 years.
If you asked people in the 1960s who would be the dominant global power, 50% would have said the US, 50% would have said the Soviet Union. Half of those people would have been proven wrong in a short 30 years.
If you asked Americans in the 1980s who would be the dominant global power, I bet 60-70% might have said Japan. They would have been proven wrong in a mere 10-20 years.
Shit happens. And it happens quickly. And that pace has only picked up as globalization takes hold. I think right now, and people by nature assume the US or China is going to dominate and continue dominating. And while that may ultimately prove to be correct, I think we should at least try to challenge that assertion.
The US is in a very similar situation to Great Britain at the height of the industrial revolution. And this too shall pass. Maybe in 20 years. Maybe in 200.
As an investor, I like to think in terms of odds. So here's a mental exercise: Let's pretend there is a 40% actual probability that China becomes the next great superpower (let's say that was plausible). But It seems like some people think that the number is closer to 80-90%. Basically, a foregone conclusion.
I'd like to call that an overvalued asset. Betting on that is a low-return proposition. Now let's also pretend a country like Australia or Nigeria has a 1 in 10,000 chance of somehow becoming the next global superpower (maybe plausible), but it seems like people are effectively writing them off and pricing in a 1 in a million chance of that happening (if not lower).
As an investor, I'd call that an undervalued asset, because if those assumptions are anywhere near correct, my expected value on that investment is 100 times.
That mispricing is something we ought to pay attention to. I want to be prepared for the unexpected. Think of it as buying a cheap option. A lot could happen in 30 years.
The EU doesn't have the cohesiveness. India won't even catch up to the US in terms of GDP until the middle of the century, and even then, it will be spending whatever surplus it has in building infrastructure that its people will be demanding. Russia's power is shrinking with her population, even while she's industrializing.
Brazil's population is stagnant and hovers around 200 million. Moreover, her internal politics and focus aren't on becoming a military superpower. Japan's chances passed at the end of the '80s. So all we're left with is China.
All estimates put China's GDP ahead of the US by 20 - 30 percent by 2050. But even then she won't have the same ability to project herself as the USA (though, will undoubtedly have a massive projection capability) because of three burdensome factors.
The stagnant and aging population is not putting the same number of workers in the factories and will be heavily taxing the growing social security payments (that the Chinese public rightly demands). The oppressive government fears the Chinese people more than it does US hegemony.
This requires a massive security state infrastructure that doesn't have a comparison in the west. China spends as much on internal security as she does on external defense. Rising wages in China eliminates the massive draw for textile manufacturers to set up shop in China, conversely requiring state investment to keep the economy going (not a bad thing to have wages rise).
Even still, by 2050, China will only have half US's GDP PCI and will be needing a higher percentage of that wealth to pay for all of the above-mentioned necessities. This doesn't mean that the Chinese won't be a superpower and will not challenge the American hegemony. That's not even up for debate anymore.
By 2030, China will likely be spending around the same amount as the US in its military. But China isn't an island.