KTFA Members "News and Views" Thursday 3--3-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  Brent crude price exceeds $119 per barrel

3rd March, 2022

Oil prices continue to rise since Russia invaded Ukraine, amid expectations that the market will remain in short supply for several months following the imposition of harsh sanctions on Moscow and the mass exit of investments by major companies from Russian oil assets.

Brent crude futures reached their peak near a 10-year high, at $119.3 a barrel in trading on Thursday, up $6.3, or 5.6%.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also achieved their highest level at $116.02 a barrel, up by $5.4, or 4.9%.   LINK

Samson:  Warnings Of The Collapse Of The Foreign Currency Market After The Price Of Oil Exceeded 120 Dollars

3rd March, 2022

An expert warned of the repercussions of high oil prices on the markets, indicating that the rise of a barrel of oil to the level of $120 a barrel and its stay at this level for a long time will lead to a collapse in the markets.

The expert, Alexander Timofeev, assistant professor of economics at the Russian Plekhanov University of Economics (Moscow), said that keeping oil prices at the level of 120 dollars per barrel for a long period of time will lead to further development of oil fields, which will contribute to the formation of a surplus in the oil market and over time the collapse of this market.

The expert suggested a rise in oil prices in the short term to the level of 150 dollars or even to 200 dollars a barrel, noting that the participants in the oil market will create conditions for the balance of supply and demand in order to return the market to 95-100 dollars.

Oil prices are rising in light of the conditions related to Ukraine, and Brent crude futures rose today above the level of $ 118 a barrel, which is the highest level since February 2013.  LINK

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Samson: The rise in oil prices turns the budget of some countries into a “surplus”

3rd March, 2022

A recent report revealed that the rise in the price of a barrel of oil to exceed levels of $100 contributes to shifting the budget of some countries by the end of the current year 2022, and according to the current prices that touched levels of $113 a barrel, Bahrain’s budget will record a surplus if the current prices continue, as Bahrain needs to sell a barrel of oil at a price $106.62 for surplus.

While Algeria needs to sell the barrel at a price of 116.65 dollars to record a surplus in its budget for the current year 2022.

Saudi Arabia had announced that it recorded a surplus during the 2022 budget, equivalent to 90 billion riyals for the current year, and Saudi Arabia needs to sell oil prices at a value of $ 72.42 to achieve the surplus in its budget, while the UAE needs to sell a barrel at $ 66.81 to achieve the surplus, and Kuwait needs to sell it at $ 65.36 To record the surplus in its budget, according to “Emirates Today”.

The report showed that Iraq needs to sell a barrel at a price of 64.25 dollars to turn its budget into a surplus, and Oman needs to sell a barrel at 60.54 dollars, while Qatar is sufficient to sell a barrel at 44.09 dollars to achieve the surplus.   LINK

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Samson:  What does Eid al-Fitr have to do with the formation of the Iraqi government?

2nd March, 2022

Wednesday, Representative Yasser Iskandar Watut expected that parliament will open the door for nomination for the position of President of the Republic next Saturday, hinting at the formation of the government after Eid al-Fitr.

Watout said in an interview with (Baghdad Today), “The coming period will be the trend to resolve the position of the president, open the door for nomination next Saturday, and resolve the parliament’s committees for their oversight importance.”

He added that “the matter will be limited to the nomination for the presidency of the republic only, and the formation of the government will take place after Eid al-Fitr, while the procedures for forming parliamentary committees will continue in these days.”  LINK

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Billuke:  I believe Eid al-Fitr is the holiday after Ramadan.  May 2 or 3 this year…we’ll see.  imo  

GodLover:  Yep, Ramadan April 1st to April 30th imo. Then Eid imo. 

It’s beginning to be crunch time for government formation, budget approval ect. Here are my thoughts of late.

The candidacy for presidency drama continues. Per other articles, if nothing is resolved, the current president stays in office for the next term. I am not certain when that scenario could take place though.

Once a new or the current POR is seated, maybe then he will have the authority to send the budget to parliament. Even with that said, I don’t expect the budget to open until the new government is formed & seated.

How long of a process for parliament to read & vote on the budget, is still unknown of course. As well, I don’t expect government formation completed until after Ramadan. 

As a general rule, Iraq does little to nothing during Ramadan, I suspect nothing less this year as well. But if they could seat a new POR or the current stays & had the authority to send the budget to parliament, in theory they could work on the budget during Ramadan.

The absolute soonest I can see the budget opening is early May…..that’s if everything I said above falls into place. WS had stated imo the best times for the MR reforms are end/beginning, mid year, because of accounting purposes imo.

With that theory, which I agree with, June could be in play. Certainly, if the budget were not to open by July, I would suspect that the budget will not open this year at all.   

Samson: Fitch downgrades Russia’s sovereign rating to junk

3rd March, 2022

On Wednesday, Fitch Ratings cut Russia’s sovereign rating by six notches to junk, saying Western sanctions over the war on Ukraine had made Russia’s ability to service its debt uncertain and would .weaken its economy, in a “huge shock” to its creditworthiness.

Russia’s financial markets were plunged into turmoil over its attack on Ukraine, the largest military offensive in Europe since World War II, and the imposition of strict Western sanctions.

The war raised warnings of the impact on the Russian economy. Standard & Poor’s last week also cut Russia’s rating to junk, and Moody’s put the country under review for a downgrade. The Institute of International Finance expects a double-digit contraction in its economic growth this year.”  Fitch lowered Russia’s rating to B from BBB, and placed it under “Negative Rating Watch.

The severity of international sanctions in response to Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has” increased risks to macro-financial stability, represents a massive shock to Russia’s credit fundamentals and could undermine its willingness to service government debt,” it said in a report.

Fitch added that US and EU sanctions banning any transactions with the Russian Central Bank would have “a much greater impact on Russia’s credit fundamentals than any previous sanctions,” rendering much of Moscow’s international reserves unusable for currency-trading interventions.“

And Fitch warned that “the sanctions could put pressure on Russia’s willingness to repay the debt President Putin’s response to putting nuclear forces on high alert appears to reduce the likelihood of him changing course on Ukraine to the degree required to reverse the impact of the rapid tightening of sanctions,” she added.

Fitch said it expected further escalation of sanctions against Russian banks. The agency warned that the sanctions imposed by Western countries will significantly weaken the growth potential of Russia’s gross domestic product compared to the agency’s previous assessment of 1.6 percent growth. 

Analysts at JP Morgan and others have warned that sanctions against Russia have significantly increased the chance of it defaulting on its dollar and other government debt in the international market.  LINK