KTFA Members "News and Views" Saturday 8-6-2022

KTFA:

Samson:  Next week..Erbil will host an international investment fair

6th August, 2022

The city of Erbil, the capital of Kurdistan Region, is scheduled to host an international investment exhibition next week.

The supervisor of the exhibition, Ribaz Darwish, told Shafaq News Agency, "The exhibition will be with the participation of dozens of international, Arab and local companies in the field of investment, and it will be held in the International Exhibition Hall in Erbil and will last for four days."

Darwish added, "The exhibition aims to attract investment to the Kurdistan Region, and exchange investment experiences from foreign companies, in addition to introducing them to the labor market in Kurdistan."   LINK

Billuke:  They can't do this on a program rate............................  imo

DCDriver:  Dissolve parliament, hold early elections, seat a government, revalue currency IMO in that order.

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Get1later:  The CBI HAS FULL CONTROL OF THE EXCHANGE RATE !!! 

They've already told the international world,  member banks and International Traders (in an article) they  MUST BE ON THEIR ELECTRONIC PLATFORM BY August 15th or lose out (The trains leaving the station) ??

That "Funky" Program Rate" their tied to ...... WON'T WORK !! 

WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU?? 

The dissolution of the Government (WHOOPIE) !!! That's a sideshow and a distraction at the moment (IMO)

GOI needs the rate before the budget

KAZEMI continues doing business as if it's already done 

Iraq's in the middle of a state of  emergency (see the EFSL). It's in the Gazette, it's law, it needs a new exchange rate to be implemented 

So what does ALL MEAN ???

The exchange rate will be adjusted WAY BEFORE the early elections and their budget's solved !! 

That's not an opinion ..... That's being spelled out in Articles from the CBI and the GOI (not opinion pieces) 

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Samson:  Iraq, Russia and Iran compete for oil exports to China

6th August, 2022

Russia and Iran's presentation of offers to China and India and discounts on crude oil has led to growing concerns about the future of Iraqi oil exports, on which 95% of its budget depends.

Previous reports had suggested that Iraq would be one of the biggest losers in these speculations, with the decline in demand for Iraqi oil of all kinds, after China and India were among the largest buyers of it, while others believe that this opens new markets that increase Iraq's profits.

Iraq competition

The economist, Dr. Ahmed Saddam, says that it is natural that Russia’s decision to reduce the price of a barrel of oil exported to India and China will lead to a change in the direction of demand, which rose by 15.5% from Russia, in return for a decrease in the level of oil imports from Iraq by 10.5%, as the Iranian decision to reduce came within limits 10 dollars above the world price to constitute a strong competitor to Iraq.

Saddam indicated that this change in the level of demand does not mean abandoning the rest of the oil markets, especially the Iraqi market, which is the second source of India after Saudi Arabia, and despite the reduction in oil prices, the share imported from Russia represents only 19% of the total Indian demand estimated at about 5 Millions of barrels per day, as India imports approximately 950,000 barrels per day from Russia, and China imports 860,000 barrels per day and 700,000 barrels per day from Iran.

Saddam adds that according to these circumstances, Iraq has no other choice but to diversify its export outlets, especially towards the European and American continents, as it is estimated that oil exports to the United States increased by 11% as a result. He believes that Iraq's situation before and after the Ukrainian crisis is still good despite the decline in Asian demand for Iraq's oil, but the important point in this regard - according to Saddam - is that even with the price reduction by Russia, there will remain technical and economic obstacles, foremost of which is the length of distance and time. This limits the number of barrels of oil imported from Russia, and this means that the decrease in Iraq's share of oil exports to China and India will not be significant.

Decline factors

For his part, economist Dr. Medhat Kazem Al-Quraishi believes that oil prices in general initially rose due to the embargo on Russia, then their prices fell due to the economic recession in Europe and the world.

Al-Quraishi notes, according to Al Jazeera Net, that the oil markets are still unstable due to the presence of negative and positive factors influencing, and therefore it is not possible to predict what will happen to the oil market related to the war in Ukraine and its repercussions. He points out that competition between producers leads to lower prices, as well as US pressure on OPEC, which may leave a small impact, despite Saudi Arabia and the UAE's rejection of the pressures of US President Joe Biden.

Upcoming crisis

In turn, Professor of Economics, Dr. Abdul Rahman Al-Mashhadani warns of a new crisis, so we should not be optimistic about the rise in current oil prices as they are not real, and therefore the Iraqi government should work within reasonable limits.  LINK

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Samson:  Sadrist's deputy submits a request to Al-Halbousi to hold an extraordinary session to dissolve parliament

6th August, 2022

A representative of the Sadrist movement, Burhan Al-Maamouri, submitted a request to Parliament Speaker Muhammad Al-Halbousi regarding the dissolution of Parliament.

Al-Maamouri, the only Sadrist MP who did not resign from parliament, demanded that Al-Halbousi hold an emergency session to dissolve parliament and set a date for early elections.

Translation ......

Honorable Speaker of the House of Representatives Subject / Dissolution of the House of Representatives, Greetings:

According to the provisions of Article (64) of the Constitution, which states:

First, the House of Representatives is dissolved by an absolute majority of its members based on a request from one-third of its members. 

In view of the failure of the House of Representatives to elect a President of the Republic based on the provisions of Article (70) of the Constitution and its failure to implement its constitutional obligations, please kindly approve the dissolution of the House of Representatives and hold an extraordinary session of the Council for this purpose based on the provisions of Article (58) of the Constitution and setting a date for early elections. 

We enclose a list of the names of the deputies supporting and signatories to the request. Thank you very much. The accompaniments / - A list of the names of the deputies who signed and supported the request.  LINK

Clare:  BOOM!!! ..........THANK YOU SAMSON!

Samson:  Is it possible to dissolve parliament ?

5th August, 2022 by Dr. Bilal Khalifa

There has been talk these days about another solution that cuts the way to the political stalemate, which is to go to a second election. The weights of the political blocs may change, and consequently, alliances may change and lead to the possibility of forming a new government. It must be remembered that the Al-Kazemi government, when it was formed, the purpose of that government was to hold early elections.

The scenario of dissolving Parliament and rerunning the elections faces obstacles, including:

1- The Federal Court, when it rejected the framework’s appeal (Monday, December 27, 2021) regarding the illegality of the elections, but the Federal Supreme Court at the same time recommended two points, namely:
A- Legislating a new election law
B - Not using electronic counting and sorting, and here lies the problem, which is that the current government is the caretaker of daily affairs, and it does not have the constitutional legitimacy for that, according to Article (64-second) and according to the Federal Supreme Court’s decision No. 121 / Federal / 2022, but after enacting a law Food security, despite its violation of the Constitution, it became possible to legislate a law during the period of a caretaker government, despite that it is unconstitutional.

2 - Some large blocs, as well as some small ones, who are independents, will not accept going to the second elections because of the possibility that their seats will be reduced.

3 - The dissolution of Parliament is the step that must precede going to elections, and this paragraph was referred to in Article 64 of the Constitution, where it clarifies that the period shall be a maximum of sixty days. Elections must take place after the Parliament is dissolved.

But the dissolution of Parliament will face several obstacles, including:

1 - The ways to dissolve Parliament are in two ways defined by the constitution in Article 64 of it, and in two ways:

First: The Parliament is dissolved by an absolute majority of the number of its members, at the request of one-third of its members, or a request from the Prime Minister and with the approval of the Prime Minister Republic, and the Council may not be dissolved during the period of questioning the Prime Minister.

Second: The President of the Republic, upon dissolving the House of Representatives, shall call for general elections in the country within a maximum period of sixty days from the date of the dissolution, and the Council of Ministers in this case is considered resigned and continues to run daily affairs. And that the two paths end with the parliament’s vote on it by an absolute majority, meaning that the ball is in the range of the members of the House of Representatives and it is the final decision-maker in the matter.

2 - The dissolution of the House of Representatives means that the government will turn into a daily caretaker government devoid of any powers, but how if it is a caretaker government.

3 - The second way to dissolve Parliament is a call from the President of the Republic to dissolve Parliament, how if the President of the Republic is the end of powers, Article 72 of the Constitution shows that the President of the Republic ends his term at the end of the Parliament, i.e. when the House of Representatives is dissolved and someone else comes after the first session, then his validity ends. Everyone knows that the first session was months ago, and therefore the President of the Republic is by virtue of the expired powers.

4 - The first way requires the process of convening a session of the Iraqi parliament, and then submitting a proposal to dissolve parliament to the presidency of the council and vote on it, but this process must be evacuating the building and its surroundings from the demonstrators, otherwise how can the deputies come amid a building full of demonstrators.

5 - The election process requires large funds. In the last elections, the government cost an amount of about 300 million US dollars, i.e. 450 billion dinars, or nearly half a trillion dinars, but here the question arises, from where this amount is allocated, and this is not possible because:

A - The current government is a caretaker government and does not have the authority to transfer or any authority to control funds except in matters appropriate to the situation.
B - We need a general budget to allocate money to the election process, and therefore, before going to the elections, the government must be formed and the federal budget law is enacted.
C - Legislating a law for elections, and this would be unconstitutional and that any appeal by the deputies will be rejected because the law will include financial aspects, and despite that it also needs Parliament to return to its work and the demonstrators to leave.
6 - Going to elections will be in two ways:

A - the use of the old law, and this will be contrary to the decision of the Federal Supreme Court
B - the enactment of a new law and this is not possible and we talked about it above and it is also contrary to the decision of the Federal Supreme Court, and the new legislation needs that Parliament exercises Duty for several months until this law is enacted.

The result is that the second elections, which some may call for, are difficult to hold because they violate the decisions issued by the Federal Supreme Court, which are irrelevant and binding on all (Article 94) of the Constitution. Likewise, the constitution made the government a caretaker, so how is it now a caretaker government?

The solution is to form a government whose most important duty is to hold early elections, and since the preparations take several months, a government with full authority can legislate the budget law and serve the people until elections are held and turn it into a caretaker government as well. But if the parliament is dissolved and elections are held by other than the methods mentioned above, which are originally found in the constitution, these procedures will be unconstitutional.  LINK