Idiots, Maniacs & the Complexities of Risk
Idiots, Maniacs & the Complexities of Risk
Posted June 24, 2021 by Ben Carlson
Risk is a complicated topic. It’s hard to define. It’s impossible to eliminate. And our perception of risk can often have unintended consequences. When things feel safer, we can let our guards down, which actually increases risk in many activities.
Last year roads were far less congested because people weren’t traveling as much due to the pandemic. Yet U.S. traffic deaths were at a 13 year high, up 7% from the year before.
How could this be?
Roads were less congested so people took more risks by speeding, failing to wear their seatbelt or driving under the influence. The roads were “safer” but people took that safety to mean they could take even more risk.
A similar dynamic played out following the 9/11 attacks. Miles flown on airplanes dropped somewhere around 20% in the months after the attacks as people were afraid to fly. That meant more people on the roads and more accidents.
Researchers determined nearly 1,600 people died in car accidents above and beyond the averages because so many more people were on the roads.
It also helps to remember everyone’s appetite for risk is different.
The old George Carlin bit about how we view other drivers on the road is the perfect description of how your personal vantage point colors how you view the riskiness of other people’s behavior:
The same person can be an idiot or a maniac depending on the circumstances. In The Right Stuff, Tom Wolfe documented the lead-up to landing a man on the moon in the 1960s.
Many of the early rocket prototypes were tested by Navy pilots. This technology was still new, unproven and highly dangerous. Yet more Navy pilots died in car crashes than air crashes during this time since they were more careful when flying and more reckless when driving.
It’s not just risk itself that matters but your perception of risk and how that changes depending on the circumstances.
To continue reading, please go to the original article here:
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/06/idiots-maniacs-the-complexities-of-risk/