Egon von Greyerz: An Epic Risk Moment in History
Palisades Gold Radio: Jan 18, 2022
Systemic risks are increasing but the general investor does not appear concerned. No one knows the size of the derivatives markets but it's likely in the quadrillions.
Sovereign bonds make no sense for investors since the only way they can be paid back is with more money printing. They are extremely poor investments especially when you consider the dismal returns.
Pensions primarily hold bonds and stocks so eventually these funds will go bust. In real terms, Egon expects an eventual 90% decline in stocks. This sounds sensational but we experienced this from 1929 to 1932.
The dollar will continue to collapse as it has already lost 98% of its value.
In this environment, your primary goal should be to protect your wealth. Central banks can't save the system forever eventually debt will collapse.
This is the first time we've had a global debt system and the risks are enormous. The investment game is easy today because of the money printing. In the end, most investors will probably give back much of their fortunes.
The Fed will be in a serious dilemma this year as inflation will continue to be problematic. They will want to talk about tapering but the Fed can't afford it. Eventually, they will likely lose control of interest rates starting with the long end of the market.
The problems are already starting as we're seeing massive problems with energy affordability in Europe.
Gold is as unloved today as it was in 1971 and when it was around $300 in 2000. If a tiny fraction of funds decide to hold gold as a hedge there will be tremendous demand. Silver could be a spectacular investment if timed correctly but it's not wealth preservation in the same fashion as gold.
He doesn't expect that cryptocurrencies will operate in the same way as a store of value but anything is possible. Perhaps real wealth shouldn't be stored in digital form as it seems unlikely that governments will leave them alone.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:50 - 2022 & Epic Risk
6:43 - Dow in Real Terms
9:06 - Global Unfunded Liabilities
16:52 - Japan's Debt Levels
21:41 - Fed Policy Reversal
27:14 - Hyperinflation?
32:05 - Property Values
36:26 - Gold Cycles
41:28 - Gold Vs. Silver
44:32 - Cryptocurrencies
47:32 - Wrap Up
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