Zig’s Place Chatroom News Friday AM 2-11-22
Zig’s Place Chatroom News Friday AM 2-11-22
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Butterfly The Iraqi presidency is awaiting the results of the Barzani-Talabani meeting
The Iraqis are the results of the meeting held in Erbil yesterday between the leaders of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Massoud Barzani and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Bafel Talabani, regarding the candidate for the presidency. Observers of Kurdish affairs described the meeting as a "last chance meeting" for many reasons, most notably the lack of agreement between the Kurds, since the results of the parliamentary elections, on a candidate for the post of President of the Republic in light of the chronic dispute over the sharing of positions between Baghdad and Erbil.
They had previously had a sharp disagreement during the 2018 elections when the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan nominated Barham Salih, the current president, while the Kurdistan Democratic Party nominated Fuad Hussein, the current foreign minister, for the position. But the victory was for Saleh and his party. During the 2021 elections, the dispute between them recurred and they did not reach a compromise, as the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan re-nominated Barham Salih for a second term, while the Kurdistan Democratic Party nominated Hoshyar Zebari, the former foreign minister for the position.
While the two Kurdish parties have not yet agreed on a single candidate for the position, the chances of a settlement between them have begun to diminish unless a new position is issued through the meeting between Talabani and Barzani.
Because Hoshyar Zebari’s chances for the post have diminished, even if the Federal Court acquits him as a result of the possibility of the “Sadrists” hesitating in his election, the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s Secretary, Fadel Mirani, announced that his party has an alternative candidate, the current Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein. https://rawabetcenter.com/archives/142216
butterfly When the constitution and the law are just tools for political use in Iraq
Iraq has failed, at least since 1958 until this moment, to transform into a real state whose political class believes in the necessity of actual adherence to the constitution and the law as general rules regulating the authorities in the state, how they are formed and the nature of their competencies. The policy of justification has always been present to legitimize any violation of them, in the context of the complicity of the entire political class.
These violations could have been understood in the context of totalitarian regimes such as the ones that ruled Iraq after 1958, especially since this stage was defined by the so-called interim constitutions (1958, 1963, 1968 and 1970)! These “temporary” constitutions were nothing but a formality in order to confer a kind of legitimacy on the existing regime, which mostly came after military or paramilitary coups.
After 2003, the new regime in Iraq took different measures in terms of form rather than content, starting with the process of writing the permanent Iraqi constitution in 2005 and the referendum on it later.
The paradox here is that the lack of respect for the constitution and the violation of its articles continued even with a supposedly democratic regime; Referring to the temporary state administration law issued by the occupying power, and which entered into force on December 31, 2003, we find that Article 60 stipulated that “the National Assembly shall write a draft of the permanent constitution for Iraq” and the law set, therefore, a deadline of August 15 2005.
butterfly The National Assembly itself failed to comply with the time set for writing the constitution, and this deadline was extended twice in another violation of the Interim State Administration Law, and the draft was not approved until August 28, two weeks after the deadline, and without a vote!
Once again, the agreement, far from the constitutional texts, was the master of the situation! The date was set for mid-October 2005 to put the draft to a public referendum. Indeed, the National Assembly printed 5 million copies of the draft constitution and distributed it to citizens, prior to the public referendum, to surprise everyone with amendments to the draft constitution that took place on October 12, i.e.
Only three days before the date of the general referendum, and whoever reviews the draft constitution that was published in the official Al-Sabah newspaper on September 15, 2005, the version that was distributed to the people, and the last version of the Iraqi constitution as it is today, will find that the amendments are not insignificant, It has been done on the draft, whether in the texts of the articles themselves, or in the number of articles of the constitution in general! This means that the people have read a version other than the version that voted on!
The Federal Supreme Court, which is supposed to be the arbiter and reference for stopping constitutional violations, has always been a party to the political context that legitimizes these violations.
butterfly The House of Representatives, which was elected on December 15, 2005 after the adoption of the permanent constitution, has failed to implement its provisions since its early days! Article 142/ first stipulates the formation of a committee whose mission is to recommend the necessary amendments that can be made to the constitution “within a period not exceeding four months” and submit them to the House of Representatives for a vote, and we are still after more than 16 years waiting for that!
The paradox here is that the Federal Court had decided that the articles contained in Article 126 of constitutional amendments could not be approved, except after implementing the provisions of Article 142, and this means that an article was added at the last moment to the constitution in order to expedite the constitutional amendments (and this article was originally developed to convince the Sunnis / The Islamic Party by voting yes on the constitution) and that this “added” article has practically disrupted other articles that were present in the original draft that allow for constitutional amendments with simpler conditions than those that came in Article 142!
butterfly This was also repeated with Article 140 of the Constitution, which set December 31, 2007 as a deadline for implementing “normalization, census and referendum” in Kirkuk and the disputed areas to determine the will of their citizens, which has not happened until now!
The most dangerous point here is that the Federal Supreme Court, which is supposed to be a ruling and reference in relation to stopping constitutional violations, has always been a party to the political context that legitimizes these violations, and the review of the decisions of this court clearly reveals this fact, which explains the contradictory decisions issued by these Court, also explains other problematic decisions.
Therefore, in the context of these systematic violations of the constitution and the law in Iraq, the objection to the “fraud” carried out by the presidency of the Iraqi Council of Representatives with regard to the Law of Provisions for the Election of the President of the Republic No. 8 of 2012, by reopening the nomination for this position without legal justification, seems mere.
A theoretical luxury” no more, as will appear to object to the Speaker of the House of Representatives’ demand from the current day caretaker / caretaker government (according to the Iraqi constitution, the government is a daily caretaker government in the event of the parliament’s dissolution) to submit the draft federal budget law for 2022 in an explicit violation of the provisions The internal system of the Council of Ministers that does not allow the government to do so, this objection will seem mere “dogmatism” from “naive” people who believe in the supremacy of the constitution and place it above personal interests, power relations and the logic of deals!
butterfly In short, no one in Iraq respects the constitution or the law, neither the state authorities, nor the political class, nor the society itself, so there was a strange smoothness in the process of systematically violating the constitution, law, regulations and instructions, and it became clear that the “violators” themselves no longer care. Originally, with any objection directed to them, because they know perfectly well that there is collective complicity that allows them to do so, and makes them completely reassured that no matter what they violate, they will remain safe from any accountability! https://rawabetcenter.com/archives/142213
butterfly Assassinations between Saraya al-Salam and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq threaten a Shiite-Shiite fight in Iraq Maysan (Iraq) - Maysan province in southern Iraq is witnessing mutual assassinations between the Peace Brigades of the leader of the Sadrist movement Muqtada al-Sadr, and the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq faction led by Qais Khazali, on the impact of an intense political conflict between Shiite forces affiliated with the so-called coordination framework and the Sadrist movement over forming a new government. .
Al-Sadr sent a delegation Thursday to Maysan Governorate, after a tumultuous night that his supporters lived through following the assassination of the leader in Saraya Al-Salam, Karar Aborgev, after he was shot by unknown assailants, when he was in his car with his wife. .
Supporters of the Sadrist movement accused the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq militia of being behind the assassination of Aborgev, vowing to respond.
Muqtada al-Sadr: There are those who want to ignite the Shiite-Shiite war
Al-Sadr said in a statement on Thursday that he had sent a delegation of three Shiite clerics with the aim of "calming down the strife that politics has fueled between the brothers in the movement and the Asa'ib." He added that "there are those who want to ignite the Shiite-Shiite war and threaten civil peace," without naming specific parties, while calling on the two parties to cooperate with the delegation "and stave off sedition."
The assassination of the leader of Saraya al-Salam came after the killing of an officer in the Ministry of Interior, Hussam al-Alaywi, during the past week, at the hands of unknown assailants. Husam Al-Alawi is the brother of Wissam Al-Alawi, a leader in the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq movement, who was also killed in October 2019 in Maysan.
butterfly And the leader of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq had previously vowed to avenge Aliawi if the Sadrist movement did not take a firm position regarding the accountability of those involved in the assassination, in a direct accusation to the movement of the involvement of its affiliates in the operation.
The history of the differences between the two factions dates back to many years since Qais Khazali split from the Sadrist movement and established Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq in 2006, a faction close to Iran.
Observers believe that the deepening political crisis in Iraq has contributed to fueling tension between the two parties, which may lead to a Shiite-Shiite war if it is not contained.
The "Al-Fatah" coalition, the political umbrella of the militias loyal to Iran, warned Thursday of the outbreak of internal fighting between Shiite forces in Iraq.
The leader of the coalition, Hadi al-Amiri, said in a statement, "The bloody incidents that Maysan is witnessing is a matter of concern, and we have previously warned of cases of escalation in which the cycle of mutual violence may expand to take a dangerous turn that is difficult to put an end to."
butterfly Al-Amiri called on the Sadrist movement and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq to “exercise the highest levels of restraint,” without explicitly referring to their responsibility for the recent violence. And he warned that "blood brings nothing but blood, and that the local fighting, which the enemies spent billions on for its success, may be offered to them free of charge, on a plate of gold."
He appealed to the security services "to take their desired role with all seriousness and competence in order to establish security, impose law and restore the prestige of the state."
The recent incidents prompted Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi to visit the province on Wednesday, and to take a decision before that to form an army operations command to control security in it.
On the same day, the leader of the Sadrist movement said in a statement that part of the violence in Maysan was caused by differences between his movement and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, without providing details.
Hadi Al-Amiri: The cycle of violence may widen to a dangerous turn that will be difficult to put an end to
The Shiite forces, most of which have armed arms, differ over the selection of a prime minister for the next government and how to form it, following the results of the parliamentary elections that took place on the tenth of last October.
The Sadrist movement, which won 73 seats (out of 329), seeks to form a national majority government, unlike Shiite forces demanding a consensual government in which all political forces in Parliament participate.
butterfly On Thursday, the coordination framework put forward a political initiative to resolve the crisis, based on dialogue between all the winning blocs in the elections to form a parliamentary coalition that would nominate the next prime minister and form the government.
The framework said in a statement, “We extend our hands to the forces concerned with forming the most numerous parliamentary bloc (which will be tasked with forming the government), and we specifically mention the brothers in the Sadrist movement, to sit down and debate about forming the most numerous bloc in a new way to serve the country and the largest national component (the Shiites), and we move away from the logic of quotas and division of spoils.”
The framework stressed the need for “the most numerous parliamentary bloc to agree on the criteria for selecting a strong and efficient prime minister, and the specifications for forming the government cabinet in accordance with standards of integrity and efficiency.”
Observers question Al-Sadr's acceptance of the initiative, which aims to preserve the chances of the leader of the State of Law coalition, Nuri al-Maliki, to participate in power.
Al-Sadr vetoes al-Maliki's participation in the next government, considering that he is one of the sides of the corruption system that has harmed Iraq, while observers believe that the position of the leader of the State of Law coalition is not without political backgrounds and personal motives. https://rawabetcenter.com/archives/142225
butterfly 2022-02-11 03:09 Shafaq News / Oil prices eased on Friday as hot U.S. inflation fanned worries about aggressive interest rate hikes and investors await the outcome of U.S.-Iran talks that could lead to increased global crude supply.
Brent crude futures fell 58 cents, or 0.6%, to $90.83 a barrel at 0730 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 45 cents, or 0.5%, to $89.43 a barrel.
The benchmark oil prices are also in line for their first weekly decline after seven consecutive weekly gains, though both contracts had earlier climbed to a seven-year high.
"Yesterday's inflation number likely puts more pressure on the U.S. Fed to act more aggressively with rate hikes. This expectation is weighing on oil and the broader commodities complex somewhat," said Warren Patterson, ING's head of commodities research.
"In addition, Iranian nuclear talks appear to be progressing, which is another factor holding prices back."
Tight supply was seen in U.S. crude oil stockpiles (USOILC=ECI), which unexpectedly fell 4.8 million barrels in the week to Feb. 4 to 410.4 million barrels as overall refined product demand reached an all-time record, said the Energy Information Administration. This compares with an analyst forecast of a 369,000-barrel rise.
Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that world oil demand might rise even more steeply this year. The group forecast a gain of 4.15 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, as the global economy posts a strong recovery from the pandemic. Source: Reuters
butterfly OPEC sees upside to 2022 oil demand forecast on strong pandemic recovery 2022-02-10 10:43
Shafaq News / OPEC said on Thursday world oil demand might rise even more steeply this year as the global economy posts a strong recovery from the pandemic, a development that would underpin prices already at a seven-year high.
Tight oil supply has also given impetus to booming energy markets, and the report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also showed the group undershot a pledged oil-output rise in January under its pact with allies.
In the report, OPEC said it expected world oil demand to rise by 4.15 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, unchanged from its forecast last month, following a steep rise of 5.7 million bpd in 2021.
"Upside potential to the forecast prevails, based on an ongoing observed strong economic recovery with the GDP already reaching pre-pandemic levels," the OPEC report said in a commentary on the 2022 demand outlook.
"As most world economies are expected to grow stronger, the near-term prospects for world oil demand are certainly on the bright side," OPEC said in a separate comment on 2022 demand.
World consumption is expected to surpass the 100 million bpd mark in the third quarter, in line with last month's forecast. On an annual basis according to OPEC, the world last used more than 100 million bpd of oil in 2019. Source: Reuters
Sheila Year of the Tiger - Go Bengals -- maybe good omen
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