KTFA Members "News and Views" Monday Afternoon 2-22-2021

KTFA:

Samson:  Goldman raises its forecast for Brent price in the third quarter to $ 75 a barrel

22nd February, 2021

Goldman Commodities Research raised its Brent crude oil price forecast of $ 10 for the second and third quarters of 2021, indicating lower expectations for stocks, higher cost margins for resuming upstream activities and speculative inflows

The American bank expects Brent prices to reach $ 70 a barrel in the second quarter from the $ 60 it had previously expected, and to reach $ 75 in the third quarter from $ 65 previously

"We believe that restoring balance at this faster pace during what was expected to be the dark winter days will be followed by an increasing deficit this spring at a time when demand will recover at a faster rate than supply, setting the stage for a scarce metropolitan market," Goldman said in a note dated Sunday. The bank now expects global oil demand to reach 100 million barrels per day by late July 2021, compared to its previous forecast for August 2021

Oil prices rose on Monday as the slow return to US crude production, which was reduced by freezing weather, sparked supply concerns as demand recovers. Goldman expects the freezing weather in Texas to lead to a global deficit of 1.5 million barrels per day this month and cut production by 0.2 million barrels per day in March due to damaged infrastructure and other factors

Goldman said an agreement to increase production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies at the next meeting in March would not have a downward impact on prices as supplies are already falling behind

The bank expects a quota increase of 0.5 million bpd in August, as Saudi Arabia backtracks on a unilateral cut of 1 million bpd, and continues to expect modest exports from Iran this year. Last week, UBS raised its Brent price forecast to $ 68 a barrel for the second half of this year  LINK

Samson:  Parliamentary Finance: Two options for financial abundance from increasing oil prices

02/22/2021 10:37:57

 A member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Sherwan Mirza, affirmed that the financial increase or abundance from the high oil prices will be used to fill the deficit or go as a supplementary budget.

Mirza told {Al Furat News} that "the price proposed by the government for a barrel of oil is 42 dollars, and after the recent adjustments that we have made, the price has become 45 dollars per barrel."  He added, "The $ 45 is a small price compared to the current price, but it is considered a conservative price because we do not know what will happen in the coming months."  A member of the Finance Committee stated that "the price was proposed by experts in the Ministry of Oil and the National Oil Company {SOMO}".  Mirza added: "If there is an increase or a financial abundance due to the high price of oil, it can be used to fill the deficit or as a supplementary budget."

The advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, had confirmed earlier that Iraq is on the edges of economic recovery, and said, “Iraq is on the edges of economic recovery at the present time in two areas.

The first is that there is a tangible agricultural boom that will achieve growth in non-oil GDP in 2021 by about More than 4%, which is about one and a half times higher than the population growth, adding that "the second scale is the boom in the energy demand sector in the world. Oil prices have gradually recovered, which is a positive sign and strengthens the country's overall financial capacity."

Saleh stressed "the necessity of dealing with this matter with great caution, by laying a basis for sustainable development and minimizing economic shocks."  LINK

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Samson:  The Council of Ministers forms a committee to study the consequences of changing the price of the dollar

02/22/2021 14:36:26

The Council of Ministers decided to form a committee to study the consequences of changing the currency exchange rate, and to propose the required solutions as far as investment projects are concerned.

The committee is chaired by a representative of the Ministry of Planning, and its membership includes, in addition to the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers, representatives of the ministries (Finance, Construction, Housing, Public Works and Municipalities, and Electricity) as well as the National Investment Authority, the Central Bank of Iraq and the Iraqi Contractors Union.

The decision stipulated that the committee would submit its recommendations within a working month to the Council of Ministers.   LINK

Osmosis:  Yeah, now that we are days away from changing the rate, let's form a committee to study the effects of changing it..........SMH

Clare:  THEY ARE, A LOT FARTHER ALONG THEN THEY TELL US!
THE MORE WE SEE THESE KINDS OF ARTICLES (EXCHANGE RATE)... AND THE DELETION OF ZEROS ARTICLES LIKE FRANK & WS TOLD US... THIS IS ACTUALLY A GOOD THING.. IMO

Samson:  Parliamentary services: Baghdad does not need an international conference for reconstruction, but rather to get rid of the corrupt

22nd February, 2021

The Parliamentary Services Committee confirmed, on Monday, that Baghdad does not need an international conference to rebuild it, but rather to get rid of corrupt officials in the capital's secretariat.

Committee member, Deputy Alaa al-Rubaie, in a statement received / Mawazine News / a copy of it, criticized “the mayor of Baghdad’s invitation to hold an international conference for the reconstruction of the capital in the presence of international advisors,” indicating that “Baghdad does not need such conferences as much as it needs to launch a broad service campaign, as well as getting rid of Of the officials accused of corruption inside the secretariat."

Al-Rubaie pointed out that "the Baghdad Municipality has become an exhausted institution and is unable to provide services that the citizen aspires to, and as a result, it is not possible to benefit from the conference and international advisers."

A member of the Parliamentary Services Committee added, "Baghdad and the other provinces are in dire need of sincere, professional and efficient hands for direct operational and practical service movement from the removal of waste, clothing, cleanliness and rehabilitation of sanitation networks, without resorting to the experience of international consultants in this," stressing that "work monitoring inside Trust and fighting the corrupt creates the development that the citizen seeks."   LINK

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Samson:  Kurdistan forms a special court for corruption cases

22nd February, 2021

The Integrity Commission in the Kurdistan Region announced, on Monday, the formation of a special court for corruption cases in the region.

A statement by the commission stated, "At our request to the Judicial Council, it was decided to form a criminal court to try all those accused of corruption cases in the name of the (Anti-Corruption Crimes Court) at the Kurdistan Region level and will be devoted to investigating corruption files.

He added, "We in the Integrity Commission in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq applaud the decision of the Judicial Council and believe that this step has positive effects on the process of confronting corruption and urgency in resolving files in the courts."   LINK

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Al-Kazemi stresses the importance of expediting the adoption of automation and e-governance by all state departments and institutions

02/22/2021 16:32:53

The e-Governance Committee held its meeting, today, Monday, under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi.

According to the government statement, Al-Furat News received a copy of it, at the beginning of the meeting, for a comprehensive presentation of the electronic services that the committee is working on, and the importance of its contribution to keeping pace with global development by updating government mechanisms at work, as well as facilitating citizens' transactions and the contribution of these procedures to anti-Corruption.

Al-Kazemi praised the "efforts of the workers on the project", stressing the "importance of expediting the adoption by all state departments and institutions of automation and electronic governance procedures." "It is no longer acceptable for citizens to proceed in the same format that was adopted a century ago, and today we are in the year 2021," he added.

According to the statement, Al-Kazemi also learned about the electronic mechanisms that the Border Ports Authority had developed and entered into implementation, which effectively contributed to curbing smuggling and corruption, in addition to its contribution to maximizing government imports, protecting local producers and preserving consumer rights.    LINK
 

Don961:  he exchange of the dollar into two prices, starting from 120 up to 145 thousand: a "new plan" that must be implemented to end the crisis in Iraq.

2021-02-22 Yes Iraq - Baghdad

It seems that talking about the exchange rates of the dollar and its disparity will not end except with the approval of the general fiscal budget 2021 to serve as a fixed constitution on which things are going in the future until the new budget for next year.

Economic analyst Mustafa Sanad, in a blog post on social media and monitored by "Yis Iraq", says that when the Central Bank’s sales decreased from $ 170 million to $ 3 million per day, within a month, imports did not stop, and the reliable story was that imports were covered. Of the dollars in the possession of citizens, groups and individuals outside the banking cycle, meaning that the role of banks that used to buy dollars from the central bank for the purpose of financing imports was a mere formality and it could be dispensed with.

Regarding the alternative, Sanad explains: The alternative is to activate the stock market, and the most successful ways are by contracting with an electronic cash company to implement an electronic market program for the dollar. The Securities Commission (instead of the Central Bank) sells the dollar in a manner available to all, and the possibility is citizens, banks, or suppliers Buying directly through a mobile application with a click of a button, transferring the account, and citizens can also buy each other or put the dollar for sale without intermediation and a price difference, so the market within this screen that brings together sellers and buyers creates an equilibrium price for the dollar, provided that the Commission determines two prices When starting to sell, the lowest price (1200) and the highest price (1450), and you start with the lowest price up.

Thus, we are deporting the central bank from a task that is not one of its tasks, which is the currency auction and the direction to achieve economic stimulus and the exercise of its primary role in monetary policy.

A bond is raised, asking how the state can finance its cash deficit if it sells dollars at a price less than 1450?

Answer: Since the state aims to finance 22% of dollar sales by raising the price from 1190 to 1450, the Ministry of Finance can be strengthened with 22% of new payment methods, pumped every month with government spending, this monetary increase contributes to raising the price of the dollar gradually without interference The state, through market mechanisms, supply and demand and increase the demand for the dollar against the limited supply of it, so the dollar gradually rises as it rose 6 months ago (before the exchange rate changed).
However, this increase does not affect the citizen’s purchasing power, as he is compensated by additional means of payment that ensure that economic activity or the citizen’s inability to purchase daily commodities will not stop, so the economic cycle continues to rotate, the state funds its deficit, and the dollar reaches its real, undistorted price.

Regarding the segments covered by the stimulus, the economic analyst answers that the segments affected by the embargo, injustice, lack of access to work and the entitlements of farmers, contractors and owners of locally produced projects, with no prejudice to the salaries of employees and retirees, but goes beyond the matter to raise the salaries of low-income brackets, indicating that the nature of these means of payment, Money will be of different liquidity, and the state controls the degree of its liquidity and manipulates it according to market readings (inflation or deflation), concluding that these are code-breaking ideas that I give free to decision-makers.

A member of the Parliamentary Legal Committee, Representative Hussein Al-Oqabi, revealed that there was a majority in favor of keeping the dollar exchange rate at 1450 dinars.

In a statement monitored by Yass Iraq, Al-Oqabi said, "We are still pressing for the return of the dollar’s ​​exchange rate to its previous position, or the pursuit of a middle settlement, especially since there are parliamentary parties who are adherent and convinced of the new exchange rate at 1450 dinars per dollar."

He pointed out that "the current efforts by a parliamentary grouping pay for the exchange rate to be at 1250-1300 dinars per dollar, but the matter has difficulties."

Al-Uqabi added, "The parliamentary majority adheres to the new dollar exchange rate, with government conviction in this direction, but we still have some time, but we are exerting pressure to reconsider the exchange rate or push to find compromises because the current price has caused an increase in prices in the Iraqi market by a percentage." 30% ”.

And he continued, "There is indeed a parliamentary struggle between two parties about the matter between those who stick to the exchange rate and those who want to return it to its previous position."

He pointed out to "other representatives to find an equation that contributes to alleviating harm to large segments of Iraqis and pushing to find convictions that contribute to changing the exchange rate by an amount that reduces the burden on the shoulders of the poor and simple people."

A member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Sherwan Mirza, confirmed that "the new dollar exchange rate has not been manipulated by the budget, given that the country's financial policy has been drawn to the price that was mentioned in the bill."

He emphasized that "Parliamentary Finance worked according to the powers granted to it to amend and replace some items in the budget and the exchange rate from the government's authority, and we do not think it intends to change it."

In turn, a member of the Parliamentary Economy Committee, Mazen Al-Faili, affirmed that "the surplus from the difference in the price of a barrel of oil can contribute to maximizing revenues and filling the current financial deficit."

He explained in a televised interview that "the price of a barrel that was proven in the budget amounted to $ 45 and the current price on the global market for Iraqi oil has reached $ 60, and this encourages going to a plan to reduce the exchange rate."

He added that "MPs proposed to go for an exchange rate estimated at 1300 dinars against the dollar, as a compromise. The proposal is before the government now and reduces its powers and can be fixed in the budget."   LINK