IQD CALLS Early Friday 3-13-20

IQD CALLS Early Friday 3-13-20

Sandyf   @Kaperoni sandyf That being said I think you need to read the IMF article for consultations with Iraq and you will find that they are encouraging the CBI to accept Article VIII to send a message to the world that they are open for business.

I read the IMF publications as a matter of course. The IMF started a concerted effort in the mid 90's to get countries into Art 8, but to date Iraq and about 16 others have resisted the pressure. If Iraq wanted to be in Art 8, it could do so very quickly.

At the end of the day the so called auctions are related to Iraqi revenue and as long as the revenue is foreign currency based the auctions will remain.

Floating the currency is always an option to any country, when the currency is in trouble it is often seen as preferable to multiple devaluations. Iraq is being pushed along the same road as Egypt and that currency lost 50% of it's value overnight.

sandyf   @Francis Albert Not sure where this "float" thing is coming from. All currencies go up and down based on people buying and selling them. I believe there's over 5 Trillion, (that's a T) bet on the FOREX market every DAY. And all currencies are basically pegged to the dollar whether they like it or not.

Garbage. Only currencies on a floating exchange rate are driven by market forces. Fixed rate is exactly that,"fixed".

Forex is a relationship trading vehicle, trading is done in pairs, just because a fixed rate currency is part of a pair does not mean it's value is changing.

Kaperoni   sandyf For the most part you are correct. Iraq could accept Article VIII, but fear plays a part since it is a one way decision. The IMF does not allow a country to return to Article XIV once accepting VIII. I o expect sooner or later if they want to diversify their resources they will accept it.

As for floating the currency, it is the natural progression to get off the peg once the create the conditions for a private sector/market economy. That would be called an "orderly exit." Currently, due to a lack of a prime minister, a cabinet, the laws needed along with low oil and Coronavirus it is creating the "perfect storm" for Iraq's economy and speeding up the transition. In fact, often called a "disorderly exit."

I am not a fan of this situation but it is what it is and we will have to see what the CBI decided to do..wait for the perfect conditions or just throw the oars in the water and row for a few months until this passes.

Again, Egypt and other countries that have chosen to float are not Iraq. I do expect if they choose this now for it to devalue some, but not much or for very long. Predictions are 1300-1350 to $1.

Xyz   wife of Canadian Prime Minister, tests positive for coronavirus

 mod   Interview From Inside China ~ Return to Normal, Business' Reopening CORONAVIRUS https://iqdcalls.com/cvirus.html

Chattels    US Defense Department: we have struck Iraqi Hezbollah militia weapons facilities throughout Iraq to reduce their capabilities. LINK

chattels   Joint operations reveal the outcome of the US bombing losses and describe it as a "violation of partnership leading to escalation" https://www.rudaw.net/arabic/middleeast/iraq/130320204

chattels   Bader leader calls for declaring emergency: We live in a state of war https://www.rudaw.net/arabic/middleeast/iraq/130320205

Doug_W   well then kick out the Iranians

Futuremoney   Iraq is a black hole

Doug_W   Silver:$15.78 -0.36 more cents today again

Baxter   Dow Jones back up over 1000 points

Doug_W   what a ride eh?

Baxter   yeh.. someone is making money

Doug_W   always but not us

Baxter   for sure

Mod   Baxter Insiders may no the Chinese back to normal almost

mod   Chia^

mod   You can't believe everything you hear on both sides, especially the news there ridiculous

mod   I'm not saying don't take care of yourself but there trying to control the heard (Us) with fear it seems

Doug_W   mod makes sense

Matt   Dow Jones Industrial Average  INDEXDJX: .DJI  21,843.36 +642.74 (3.03%)

Doug_W   wow that's better

Doug_W   Silver:$15.48 -0.66

Weatherford TX   Just checking in to see if anyone is believing all the pumpers out there. Just wait the next delay will be blaming the Corona Virus for the delay. To many people gathering together to exchange.

Doug_W   Silver:$14.73 -1.41

Doug_W   Gold:$1,528.30 -67.43

Dave   in waitful anticipation of chattels brining in some news?

Dave   good news.......???

Dave   well.....no news is good news i hear esp lately

chattels   U.S. Central Command Briefing on Airstrikes in Iraq -- LIVE now online here: https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1238447395517710343

chattels   Iraq will file a complaint with the United Nations and the Security Council regarding the American forces assault on the headquarters of the army and the crowd / expanded

Friday 13, March 2020 https://ninanews.com/Website/News/Details?key=817363

chattels   Tariq Harb: The constitutional fifteen days are an organizational period for choosing the new prime minister and can be extended

Friday 13, March 2020 https://ninanews.com/Website/News/Details?key=817345

chattels   Deputy: The Seven Committee will present a candidate for prime minister in favor of next week

Editing Date: 12/3/2020 19:37 • http://www.alliraqnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=87889

chattels   "the political blocs are currently studying a number of names to take over the position of prime minister and will present the final candidate to all Kurdish and Sunni political forces," noting that "the committee has not resolved the prime minister's personality yet."

chattels   Parliamentary Economy proposes to the government 8 measures to manage the financial crisis

Editing Date: 12/3/2020 14:55 • http://www.alliraqnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=87870

chattels   " ............ Reviewing the exchange rates from the Central Bank of Iraq to ensure prices that do not affect the citizen .........."

chattels   Whatever the foregoing means ????????????

Dave   Canadian dollar sure has been crashing tooo

Dave   Global recession?

chattels   Likely does not mean that the exchange rate will " improve ". No need to protect the citizenry from betterment.

Doug_W   what a rats nest over there

chattels   Parliamentary Finance: The emergency budget is limited to paying salaries and conducting elections

Editing Date: 11/3/2020 18:24 • http://www.alliraqnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=87824

Dave   Doug_W invest in that

chattels   Saleh said in a press statement that the drop in oil prices to less than $ 30 for a non-short-term period means, of course, dealing with a major financial-economic shock based on the absence of important sovereign resources and the deprivation of the general budget from them, taking into account that the country's budgets depend 92% on Oil revenue.

Doug_W   already have

Dave  Rat traps?

Dave   92%........

chattels   Abdul Mahdi directs a series of measures to mitigate the negative effects on the economy

Editing Date: 11/3/2020 17:59 • http://www.alliraqnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=87817

chattels   The meeting was attended by the finance, oil and planning ministers, the governor of the Central Bank and a number of agents, consultants and economic experts.

Baxter   Stock Market up almost 2000 points...as Trump speaks..

 Chattels   So this is "caretaker" PM Adil Abd al-Mahdi's speech from Wednesday, with my comments below. His main point is that Iraq is not about to collapse totally, which I guess is true if you set the bar for what constitutes "collapse" high enough.   https://youtube.com/watch?v=oX-fxrd6j34

chattels   Right off, mins 1-4, he makes what I think is an absurdly wrong statement about the oil collapse, saying that a 50% drop in oil prices would still leave Iraq with $30-40bn instead of $75bn before.

That can't be right. Fixed costs of oil production means that if oil prices are reduced by 50%, Iraq's revenue should drop much faster, because the fixed costs including payments to IOCs are going to take up a much larger portion of $35bn than $70bn. Our oil experts can provide more precise figures, but it can't be a proportional drop. https://twitter.com/UticaRisk

Chattels   Next Abd al-Mahdi says Iraq won't go insolvent bc of the oil collapse. This is true, but the reason he gives for this is misleading. He cites Iraq being 34th in the world in PPP, but that's Iraq's total GDP. Iraq has a larger GDP in PPP terms than several European countries but this has no relationship to Iraq's solvency. Iraq has a larger GDP in PPP terms than Norway but does not have similar credit worthiness. He later does mention borrowing from the CBI, which will have to keep Baghdad afloat in 2020.

Chattels   " .............. the CBI, which will have to keep Baghdad afloat in 2020."

Dave   1.35 here

Doug_W   chattels amazing

Baxter   yeh.. a liter  whoopie

Doug_W   3.76 liters a US gallon

chattels   Abd al-Mahdi says SOMO thinks that the rebuilding of reserves around the world will make a substantial difference in oil demand. I doubt that. He is right that shutting down shale wells in the US will help, but a gradual increase over 2020 to $50-60 leaves Iraq in a huge hole.

Dave   "afloat in 2020.".......

chattels   At min 18 he says oil could cover operational expenses. No way it will do that this year. Parl't Finance Comm Chairman Haytham al-Jiburi says that oil revenues are over $6bn short of just covering salaries, pensions & similar basic payments.

chattels   Abd al-Mahdi talks about coronavirus at min 20 and makes statements I find credulous. He first mispeaks & says Iraq's infection rate is 1.8%, then corrects to 1.8 per million, then compares this favorably to figures published in European countries. There is a problem here.

Dave   Kap will catch that......

chattels   While it is true that Iraq's officially reported figures to WHO are about that, 70 total as of March 12, I can't believe AAM finds these numbers credible. Given how quickly the virus has spread in Iran & elsewhere & the amount of contact there has been, that # can't be real.

Doug_W   nope

chattels   AAM: he closes the speech by talking about progress in agriculture under his govt plus the new China deal (both favorite topics). I'll note that there is a fair amount of criticism of the China deal, & it can't be approved until there is a new govt.

chattels   AAM also talks about the large amount of waste in the budget that could be cut, & "dead money" sitting in accounts unspent in various places that can be used to plug the hole. That raises the question of why he didn't address these things last year.

chattels   In sum: AAM is probably right the Iraqi state is not going to just collapse entirely, but given the existing urgent need for CapX investment, going a lengthy period of time with almost no investment + growing population means Iraq got closer to a permanent dead end under him. https://twitter.com/UticaRisk

chattels   Incredible to step back and realize that Iraqi leader presiding over late-stage plummet to insolvency and complete collapse basically defends status quo by saying "it's not the end of the world yet." https://twitter.com/tcambanis

chattels   More astounding is after the 24 min talk full of inaccuracies and empty talk he tells those present I called meeting to try identify problems Iraq faces. After all these years and his time in office, he still needs to identify the problems? When does he start making decisions? https://twitter.com/iraqoilforum/status/1238487103056547840

chattels   I actually hit "pause" and didn't listen to the last 30 seconds, but it is interesting he says they need to talk to identify problems, then decide at some point on whether the "caretaker" govt can pass the budget. He should have been an academic. https://twitter.com/UticaRisk

chattels   I've lost that " RV " feelin'.

Baxter   CHATTELS... SO HAVE I.... I have completely disregarded Iraq in this anymore... and have flipped over to the GCR possibility.... Mainly because that is the only possible way.. this will ever happen..

chattels   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOnYY9Mw2Fg

chattels   You've Lost That Loving Feeling ................. Righteous Brothers.

Dave   PEEPS wont stand for this much LONGER??????

Baxter   4 days... and I start my 15th year..

chattels   Okie told us to relax, but ..........................

Baxter   HA

Dave   Baxter LOST ALL FAITH in their Parliament.........

Dave   Coup only solution imo

Baxter   GCR...GCR..GCR..

chattels   Pentagon retaliates after deadly Iran-backed strikes on US troops  Jack Detsch March 13, 2020

Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/03/pentagon-retaliate-iran-backed-strike-us-troops.html#ixzz6GbQBXCFJ

Dave   chattels and Iraq files a claim to UN against the US?????

Baxter   Stock market up 1985 points...done for the day

Dave   Who do recommend to learn about this GCR?

Baxter   well.. PTR has been working on this GCR for over 5 years now.... and they do have some very good  points.. Im not saying they are right..but I am saying.. dont rule it out   especially right now...with the way the world is

Dave   Go ZIM????

Baxter   Ha... not hardly

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Bruce’s Big Call Intel Thursday Night 3- 12-2020