A Number From Today and A Story About Tomorrow
A Number From Today and A Story About Tomorrow
Sep 8, 2021 by Morgan Housel
Every forecast takes a number from today and multiplies it by a story about tomorrow.
Investment valuations, economic outlooks, political forecasts – they all follow that formula. Something we know multiplied by a story we like.
The trick when forecasting is realizing that’s what you’re doing. A few weeks before he died a reporter asked Franklin Roosevelt if the Yalta Conference negotiations near the end of World War II set the stage for permanent peace in Europe. “I can answer that question if you can tell me who your descendants will be in the year 2057,” Roosevelt said. “We can look as far ahead as humanity believes in this sort of thing.”
The deals hammered out in Yalta were the things we knew. How long they’d hold, how much they’d be adhered to, and what else could get in their way is just a story people told and believed in varying degrees. Anything that tries to forecast what people will do next work like that.
The hard thing is that while the number we know today can be something real and verified, the story we multiply it by is driven by what you want to believe will happen or what makes the most sense. Forecasters get into trouble when the number we know from today gives an impression that you’re being objective and data-driven when the story about tomorrow is so subject to opinion.
When valuing a company, revenue/cash flow/profits is the number we know. The earnings multiple you attach to that figure is just a story about future growth.
Same with economic trends. We have lots of data, but none of it means much until you attach a story to it about what you think it means and what you think people will do with it next.
That seems obvious to me. But ask forecasters if they think the majority of what they do is storytelling and you’ll get blank stares. At best. It never seems like storytelling when you’re basing a forecast in data.
And while data-driven storytelling doesn’t mean guessing, it doesn’t mean prophecy.
We can use historical data to assume a trend will continue, but that’s just a story we want to believe in a world where things change all the time.
We can use data to assume a crazy event will revert to the norm, but that’s also just a story in a world where unsustainable trends last longer than people think.
Few things escape that reality. B.H. Liddell Hart writes in the book Why Don’t We Learn From History?:
To continue reading, please go to the original article here:
Oil Rises For Fourth Day On Hormuz Concerns
2026-08-19 Shafaq News Oil prices climbed for a fourth straight day on Wednesday as investors weighed conflicting messages from Tehran and Washington on whether the Strait of Hormuz is open to ships.
Brent crude futures climbed 69 cents, or 0.8%, to $91.71 by 0415 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 76 cents, or 0.9%, to $85.70 a barrel.
The Shakeout Has Begun. Will Dinar Investors Win ?
The Dinar Den: 8-18-2026
Navigating the complex landscape of international finance and foreign exchange requires a steady hand, a deep understanding of macroeconomic policy, and a healthy dose of patience.
This is especially true for those following the developments of the Iraqi dinar (IQD). Recently, Stephen, the seasoned host of The Dinar Den and an active investor in the dinar since 2011, released a comprehensive commentary addressing the latest wave of confusion surrounding Iraq’s potential currency reforms.
Globalists Are Planning For Economic Reset | Alex Newman
Liberty and Finance: 8-18-2026
AI data centers are rapidly expanding across America, but Alex Newman warns the consequences could go far beyond higher electricity bills and massive energy & water consumption.
He argues that the push to hyperscale AI infrastructure could accelerate a dangerous combination of private credit, government subsidies, surveillance technology, and financial instability.
Bruce’s Big Call Dinar Intel Tuesday Night 8-18-26
Transcribed By WiserNow Emailed To Recaps (INTEL ONLY)
(Bruce’s segment was very long but most of the time was focused on his info about the holographic H A L O holographic medical beds and his Humanitarian Projects post RV)
So welcome everybody. Glad to have you here tonight. We'll see how everything goes tonight. I'm making a recovery physically, getting stronger, and hopefully be speaking tonight or tomorrow. I hope I can get it all back. So, for those of you listening, thank you for your prayers.
All right, guys, time to get into the Intel segment. All right, I want to talk about a couple of things. One thing is interesting. I did not know until Jeanie mentioned it in her prayer tonight about Indonesia, I I'm really basically staying away from the news. I catch a little bit here and there, and I'm very specific. I go to Newsmax and One America News. That's it.
Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps,
Treasury Steps In as the Bond Market Sends a Warning to Washington
The U.S. Treasury is dramatically increasing its long-term bond buybacks as yields surge, while the Federal Reserve remains divided over inflation and the possibility of future rate hikes
Ariel: This is an Easy One for the Normies and Investors alike
8-19-2026
Renee:If millions of people are holding large amounts of dinar and suddenly every 25,000 dinar note can be exchanged for tens of thousands of U.S. dollars… Who absorbs that liability? That’s the part I want explained. WHO. PAYS. THE. MONEY? Bring numbers.
This Is An Easy One For The Normies & Investors Alike:
I Got This Answer Way Back In 2013.
Coffee with MarkZ, joined by Papa Dave and Zester. 08/19/2026
MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions
MZ: Zaidi's support continues to grow, Oil, Iran, World power, and so much more today. Zester joins to talk crypto and WYST (Wyoming stablecoin token?)
THE CONTENT IN THIS PODCAST IS FOR GENERAL & EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY&NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE ANY PROFESSIONAL, FINANCIAL OR LEGAL ADVICE. PLEASE CONSIDER EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN MARKZ’S OPINION ONLY
TNT:
Tishwash: Two million barrels since the beginning of August... Iraq opens alternative routes for its oil exports
Anbar Alliance leader Mohammed al-Dhari al-Dulaimi revealed on Wednesday that Iraq has exported approximately two million barrels of oil since the beginning of August via the Ceyhan pipeline in Turkey and by tanker trucks to Syria and Jordan.
Al-Dulaimi told the Information Agency that “crude oil exports via the Ceyhan pipeline and by tanker trucks through the Trebil border crossing with Jordan and the al-Walid crossing in western Anbar have reached unprecedented levels, exceeding two million barrels since the beginning of August.
"Reform or monetary gamble?" The National: Fears that removing zeros will disrupt markets and shake confidence in the dinar
Baghdad - One News A report by The National has brought the issue of removing zeros from the Iraqi dinar back to the forefront, amid what officials described as serious discussions within the Central Bank, at a time when Iraq is facing increasing pressure on the budget and a decline in oil revenues.
Good Morning Dinar Recaps,
When Higher Yields No Longer Guarantee a Stronger Dollar: Global Finance Enters a New Risk Phase
U.S. Treasury yields remain near multi-decade highs while oil approaches $92 and the dollar weakens—creating a difficult new equation for central banks, governments and global investors.
Stephanie Starr: Big Piece of Monetary Reform for Iraq
8-18-2026
Now watch the CBI.
Redenomination restructures the currency.
Revaluation changes its value.
The question is whether Iraq intends to do BOTH.
KTFA
Tuesday Night Video
FRANK26…8-18-26…LD’s NEXT
This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only
Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie and Omar in Iraq and guests
Playback Number: 605-313-5163 PIN: 156996#
Good Evening Dinar Recaps,
BRICS Moves From Talk to Infrastructure: The Next Phase of Global Finance
India is pushing a practical step toward a more multipolar financial system as BRICS members explore linking local-currency payment networks and central-bank digital currencies.
The Iraqi Dinar: Between Adjustment And Impact... Urgent Parliamentary Messages To The Prime Minister
Baghdad Today - Baghdad MP Saud Al-Saadi called on the government today (August 17, 2026) to clarify the legal and economic basis for the decision to remove zeros from the Iraqi dinar, according to an official document seen by Baghdad Today
Reset Intelligence: Iraq to Remove the Three Zeros from the IQD
8-17-2026
Iraq to Remove the Three Zeros from the IQD
By Reset Intelligence | @EXIT_FIAT
On Saturday night, Iraq’s Minister of Communications, Mustafa Sanad, went on the iNews channel and told the country the decision has been issued: the currency is changing and the three zeros are coming off the dinar.
MilitiaMan & Crew: Crucial Zeros Pressure Update: Don't Miss This
8-18-2026
The Crew: Samson, PompeyPeter, Petra, Daytrader, Sunkissed, GIGI and Militia Man
No drama. No intrigue. No songs and dances. Just straight, factual news that I read and interpret to the best of my ability after being an avid Dinar investor and insanely obsessed Dinarian for over 15 years.
Follow MM on X == https://x.com/Slashn
Exclusive: SOMO Seeks Safe Hormuz Passage For Iraqi Oil Exports
2026-08-17 Shafaq News- Baghdad Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) is negotiating with US and German shipping companies to secure passage for crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz using Iraqi-flagged tankers, a government source told Shafaq News on Monday.
How Medicare Became a Slush Fund
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black / Sovereign Man) August 18, 2026
Four years ago this month, Washington passed a law and named it, with a straight face, the Inflation Reduction Act. Bizarrely, their plan to ‘reduce inflation’, which had been caused by excessive government spending, was for the government to spend even more money. It’s genius!
Ariel: The Parallel Emerging Market, the Venezuela Bolívar
8-18-2026
The Venezuela Bolívar: The Parallel Emerging Market (Why You Should Stack)
Venezuelan Bolívar Soberano (VES) — Imminent FX Integration Post-Iraq RV; Bilateral Normalization Trajectory
Why Venezuela & Why Now?
Foreign Buying of US Treasuries Just Fell 88% in a Single Month
Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Aimon Black / Sovereign Man) August 19, 2026
If you were to head to Bloomberg, CNBC, or Yahoo Finance this morning and see virtually all green across the board in US markets, you wouldn’t think it’s a sad day for America.
And yet, despite stocks being up and investors positively effervescent, it is indeed a sad day, because today marks the first real capitulation by the Treasury Department.