A Number From Today and A Story About Tomorrow
A Number From Today and A Story About Tomorrow
Sep 8, 2021 by Morgan Housel
Every forecast takes a number from today and multiplies it by a story about tomorrow.
Investment valuations, economic outlooks, political forecasts – they all follow that formula. Something we know multiplied by a story we like.
The trick when forecasting is realizing that’s what you’re doing. A few weeks before he died a reporter asked Franklin Roosevelt if the Yalta Conference negotiations near the end of World War II set the stage for permanent peace in Europe. “I can answer that question if you can tell me who your descendants will be in the year 2057,” Roosevelt said. “We can look as far ahead as humanity believes in this sort of thing.”
The deals hammered out in Yalta were the things we knew. How long they’d hold, how much they’d be adhered to, and what else could get in their way is just a story people told and believed in varying degrees. Anything that tries to forecast what people will do next work like that.
The hard thing is that while the number we know today can be something real and verified, the story we multiply it by is driven by what you want to believe will happen or what makes the most sense. Forecasters get into trouble when the number we know from today gives an impression that you’re being objective and data-driven when the story about tomorrow is so subject to opinion.
When valuing a company, revenue/cash flow/profits is the number we know. The earnings multiple you attach to that figure is just a story about future growth.
Same with economic trends. We have lots of data, but none of it means much until you attach a story to it about what you think it means and what you think people will do with it next.
That seems obvious to me. But ask forecasters if they think the majority of what they do is storytelling and you’ll get blank stares. At best. It never seems like storytelling when you’re basing a forecast in data.
And while data-driven storytelling doesn’t mean guessing, it doesn’t mean prophecy.
We can use historical data to assume a trend will continue, but that’s just a story we want to believe in a world where things change all the time.
We can use data to assume a crazy event will revert to the norm, but that’s also just a story in a world where unsustainable trends last longer than people think.
Few things escape that reality. B.H. Liddell Hart writes in the book Why Don’t We Learn From History?:
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BREAKING: Gold Can't Be Confiscated In This State Now | Patrick Holland
Liberty and Finance: 9-7-2026
Missouri has enacted a sweeping Constitutional Money Actthat gives gold and silver legal-tender status.
The law also provides protections against state-assisted confiscation, allows employers and employees to agree to compensation in gold and silver, and requires the state to accept certain electronic gold and silver transfers for taxes and services.
KTFA:
Clare: The Central Bank organizes a workshop on local and international blacklists.
The Banking Studies Center at the Central Bank of Iraq, in cooperation with the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Office, organized a workshop entitled (Local and International Sanction Lists) as part of the Center’s work plan for 2026.
The workshop aimed to enhance the efficiency of financial and banking personnel and develop mechanisms for financial institutions to comply with international standards and national legislation, as well as to review mechanisms for name screening, alert management, reporting, documentation and effective follow-up procedures.
Ariel: The Current Operational Assessment for Iraq
9-8-2026
Iraq: The Current Operational Assessment (And Other News)
The Sequence Problem, the September Squeeze, and Why the Clarity Act Is the Real Timer
Let me tell you what nobody’s connecting, because everyone’s staring at the budget like it’s the fuse when it’s actually the firecracker that gets thrown ‘after’ the match is lit.
Coffee with MarkZ, Tuesday 09/08/2026
MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions
MZ: Denominations smaller than 250, CBI buys more gold, elections around the world, conflict and the fallout. Joined by Lewis Herms.
THE CONTENT IN THIS PODCAST IS FOR GENERAL & EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY&NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE ANY PROFESSIONAL, FINANCIAL OR LEGAL ADVICE. PLEASE CONSIDER EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN MARKZ’S OPINION ONLY
Note: All intel should be considered as "Rumors" until we receive official announcements ...and “Rates and Dates” could change anytime until we get to the banks/redemption centers.
RV Excerpts from the Restored Republic via a GCR Update as of Tues. 8 Sept. 2026
Compiled Tues. 8 Sept. 2026 12:01 am EST by Judy Byington
The Global Financial Transition:
The Quantum Financial System (QFS) operates independently of the current centralized banking model, putting an end to the global perpetuation of “Debt Slavery” by dismantling the existing Central Banking System. …Quantum Financial System Intel on Telegram Mon. 7 Sept. 2026
YEN SURGE SHAKES THE $2.35 TRILLION CARRY TRADE: JAPAN’S CURRENCY REVERSAL COULD REPRICE GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWS
Japan’s rapidly strengthening yen is forcing investors to reconsider one of the world’s largest funding trades, raising the possibility of broader shifts in global liquidity, asset prices and capital flows.
OVERVIEW
The yen has surged nearly 4% in about a week, reaching a seven-month high as markets increasingly expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates.
Cross-border yen borrowing — a proxy for the carry trade — reached a record 360 trillion yen, or approximately $2.35 trillion, in March, according to Jefferies analysis of Bank for International Settlements data.
A sustained yen rally could force investors to unwind leveraged positions and repatriate capital, potentially affecting currencies, bonds and other global assets.
Marc Faber: Imminent Financial Collapse, Money Printing & Gold
Palisades Gold Radio: 9-8-2026
Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Contrarian Investor and Publisher of the Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report Marc Faber to the show.
Faber opened the discussion by emphasizing the unprecedented complexity facing economists and investors today, driven by a confluence of dismal fiscal situations in Western democracies, geopolitical tensions, and the central role of central banks in financing massive deficits.
TNT:
Tishwash: After September 30th, a new security agreement will keep Marines protecting the US Embassy in Baghdad.
On Monday, Hoshyar Zebari, a leader in the Kurdistan Democratic Party, revealed new details regarding the American withdrawal from Iraq, pointing to bilateral security arrangements between Baghdad and Washington, which include the continued presence of US Marines to protect the embassy .
Zebari said in a televised interview followed by Al-Sa’a Network that “this operation will end on September 30,” explaining that “the Iraqi government agreed with the American side two years ago that in 2026 there will be no need for Operation Inherent Resolve .”
KTFA
Monday Night Video
FRANK26…9-7-26…..CURRENCY DEALERS TALK
This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only
Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie and Omar in Iraq and guests
Playback Number: 605-313-5163 PIN: 156996#
Rob Cunningham: Mission Abundance
9-7-2026
MISSION ABUNDANCE
Let’s play a game, shall we?
Let’s consider and then process a hypothetical 8 year scenario.
TNT:
Tishwash: An economist predicts the return of the 50 and 100 dinar denominations with the currency change.
Economic expert Mustafa Hantoush suggested on Sunday that the 50 and 100 dinar denominations would return to circulation if the currency change were to proceed, noting the possibility of issuing new currency denominations with stronger security features .
Hantoush said in a televised interview followed by Al-Sa’a Network that “the Central Bank may issue a new currency with advanced security features, with the possibility of introducing currency denominations less than 250 dinars, such as 100 fils .”
CLARITY ACT HITS A CRITICAL WALL: U.S. DIGITAL-FINANCE LEADERSHIP NOW FACES A REGULATORY GAP
Congressional deadlock is putting the future of comprehensive U.S. crypto market-structure legislation in doubt just as federal regulators and other financial centers move ahead with their own digital-asset frameworks.
OVERVIEW
The CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate, with a September 15 cloture vote now representing the next major test of whether the legislation can advance.
The delay is being driven by unresolved disagreements over ethics provisions, anti-money-laundering safeguards, stablecoin rewards, community-bank deposits, law-enforcement authority and SEC-CFTC jurisdiction.
Labor Day Coffee with MarkZ. 09/07/2026
Some highlights by PDK-Not verbatim
MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything and its best to watch the video so that you get everything in context. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions
MZ: CBI on Currency changes, Erbil/Baghdad, Gold, a bold claim in Venezuela, the fog of war, and Plenty of bond rumors to start the week.
MZ: For a Monday on a holiday weekend I think we have pretty good news and rumors.
Sunday Dinar Update: Things Are Moving FAST!
The Dinar Den: 9-6-2026
Iraq’s financial landscape is undergoing a pivotal transition as state institutions work toward comprehensive economic modernization. Market analysts, economists, and international observers have increasingly turned their focus to the Iraqi dinar (IQD) and the broader policy adjustments managed by the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI).
Understanding these developments requires evaluating a combination of legal frameworks, currency circulation metrics, banking sector overhauls, and significant political milestones.
TNT:
Tishwash: Parliamentary Finance Committee: There is an intention to issue banknotes in denominations smaller than 250 dinars.
About the news
The parliamentary finance committee revealed that there is an intention to issue smaller denominations of currency than the 250 dinar note.
This measure comes as a result of what has been described as the currency not having changed for a long time and the occurrence of counterfeiting.
Removing Zeros From The Dinar: Parliamentary Finance Committee Sets Conditions For Proceeding With This Matter.
Today 12:19 The Information/Baghdad... Member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Amer Rahim, confirmed on Saturday that voting on a bill to remove zeros from the local currency requires extensive discussions and the enforcement of a package of laws within the Parliament. He indicated that raising this issue at the present time is premature.
Good Morning Dinar Recaps,
CHINA'S $3.44 TRILLION RESERVE WALL RISES: YUAN STRENGTH SIGNALS A SHIFT IN GLOBAL CURRENCY BALANCES
China's enormous foreign-exchange reserve position is rising as the yuan strengthens and the dollar weakens, highlighting how exchange rates, reserve management and competing currencies are reshaping the global financial landscape.
China Just Triggered the Biggest Gold and Silver Rally in 50 Years: Luke Groman
Slick Finance: 9-5-2026
The global financial landscape is experiencing a profound transformation, characterized by a steady shift away from traditional dollar-centric foreign exchange reserves.
As nations reevaluate their monetary strategies in an increasingly interconnected yet fractured world, a new global monetary dynamic is taking shape. At the center of this evolution is the enduring appeal of gold, which is rapidly emerging as the preferred neutral reserve asset for sovereign entities seeking stability, security, and independence from legacy financial systems.
KTFA
Sunday Video
FRANK26…9-6-26….CBI OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT
This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only
Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie and Omar in Iraq and guests
Playback Number: 605-313-5163 PIN: 156996#
Reset Intelligence: Smaller Notes Only mean One Thing
9-8-2026
Smaller Notes Only Mean One Thing
By Reset Intelligence | @EXIT_FIAT
Iraq’s Parliamentary Finance Committee says it intends to issue banknotes smaller than the 250 dinar note. At today’s official rate, that note is worth about 19 US cents.