"20K Note Confusion" with KTFA Members Friday 10-7-2022

KTFA:

Clare:  The Central Bank: We will not print a currency higher than 50 thousand Iraqi dinars

06/10/2022   Baghdad -

the Central Bank of Iraq confirmed, today, Thursday, that the new twenty thousand category will carry high security marks, and while he pointed out that there is no tendency to print a category higher than 50 thousand, he revealed that the volume of cash circulating in Iraq is 84 trillion dinars.

Central Bank Adviser Ihssan Shamran Al-Yasiri said that "the printing of the new 20,000 dinars denomination is part of the normal monetary practices of the Central Bank and within the framework of reconsidering the structure of the national banknote series."

He added, "This category will be an intermediate currency structure and will be enhanced with high security marks from the latest globally and will provide an addition to smaller denominations such as the five thousand and ten thousand."

He added that "the denomination of twenty thousand will be of the (standard) size under which the denomination of fifty thousand was printed, and it will also bear Iraqi features, as was done in the currencies that preceded it," noting that "there is no current trend to reprint the current currencies with new copies."

In response to a question about the possibility of issuing higher categories, between Al-Yasiri, that "the 50 thousand category is sufficient at the present time for the upper limit of the Iraqi currency, which is a very strong and sober category and can be used for storage, savings and cash transactions."

He pointed out that "the size of the monetary mass circulating in banks and the public currently ranges between 83-84 trillion Iraqi dinars, and the new issuance of the 20,000 denomination will not change much of the volume of circulation because it will enter into the existing liquidity."

He stressed that "the printing of the new category will not affect the value of the Iraqi currency and will not cause inflation, and the issue of inflation is linked to economic policies and has nothing to do with monetary circulation."    LINK

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Margarita:  Ok I am freaking out a little.  Can someone explain to me like I am a 5 year old why this 20k note is a good thing?  And can they really RV 1 to 1 with 84 trillion dinars in circulation?  I mean I know everyone wont be exchanging for the U.S. dollar...Many iraqs wont...I wonder how much of that is in USA?  

My brain cannot grasp this.  It takes me to the place of the dreaded L word.  Can MM or PEtra weigh in again on this?  Geez...84 trillion.  I thought they had reduced that elephant.

Frank talked about some satellite banks that were going to open this week.  Well I went to the ole google machine and cannot find even a definition of a satellite bank.  Help us please.  We need some clarity here.

Zeeman:  as frank said the international world uses 20000 dollar bills and also the banks will use it more then the people as well as companies

KandG:  The math certainly doesn't work at a pre-war era of $3 per dinar - I'm with you - don't understand how that can work.

OlLar:  IMO 84 trillion includes all the notes in the Central bank but not on the street , they are considered in circulation until they are marked for destruction, the real numbers on the street are top secret, we may never know .

**************

Samson:  20 thousand dinars.. the new category under the lens of experts, negative and positive

07/10/2022 10:32:12

 The Central Bank of Iraq is heading to issue a new category of local currency for cash circulation that is not very high, after the depreciation of its currency against the dollar, in a move described as useless and will increase inflation on the one hand, and its goal is to improve the efficiency of the performance of the cash payments system in the country in intermediate currencies that serve the speed of monetary exchange and facilitate settlement of transactions and payment methods within the economic community on the other hand.

This trend came on the lips of the Governor of the Central Bank, Mustafa Makheeb, who revealed during his participation in the “Al-Rafidain Forum for Dialogue” last September 27, about the Iraqi Central Bank’s intention to issue a new denomination of the Iraqi currency with a value of 20 thousand dinars (approximately $13) based on comparative study and research. With neighboring countries, he is working on completing the paper's form, and in the coming days it will be announced

He said, "We are working on a new currency, a category of 20 thousand dinars, after studies in order to keep pace with the requirements and to match the neighboring countries," adding, "We will start announcing the new category after completing its requirements."  

It is noteworthy that Iraq possesses - so far - 7 categories of local currency issued by the Central Bank of Iraq, which are {250 dinars, 500 dinars, 1000 dinars, 5000 dinars, 10,000 dinars, 25000 dinars, and 50,000 dinars).

During the post-2003 years, the Iraqi currency went through volatile and volatile stages that lost its local value and market influence, but it was subjected to what can be described as a “semi-collapse” on December 21, 2020 when the Central Bank reduced the exchange rate from 1190 to 1450 dinars against one dollar, with the aim of better managing payments and the economic crisis in the country, and estimated that the value of the local currency in the market would fall by about 22% of its previous value.

Repercussions and risks

The devaluation of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar resulted in significant repercussions, as this resulted in increases in the prices of most consumer and food materials and services, in particular, by more than 45%, according to economic estimates, which reduced the economic welfare of the local currency against other currencies and the dollar. specifically

And what made the recent devaluation of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar, which is the harshest and most harmful - according to experts in economic affairs - is that it came at a time when the correct premises are not available in terms of the existence of a reliable base for industry and agriculture and the availability of a commodity alternative to many imported industrial and agricultural commodities whose prices have risen. Also, the change in the exchange rate was sudden and not gradual

What makes the devaluation of the Iraqi currency in embarrassment due to its low price, is that the country’s economy is single in production and relies on oil exports to secure its annual budgets. In other words, decreasing the exchange rate does not contribute to an increase in oil exports, since the latter’s prices are set in the world market by a single price system

This report answers a set of questions: What are the main reasons for launching the new Iraqi currency at a value of 20 thousand dinars (about $13)? What are its pros and cons? Then what role is it supposed to play in improving the image of the local currency after a wave of "semi-collapse" following the rise in the price of the dollar and its depreciation about 3 years ago

The pros and cons of the new cash category

A member of the Parliament’s Finance Committee, Jamal Cougar, disagrees with the Central Bank of Iraq and believes that it was more appropriate to print small denominations of cash, such as the 150 dinars denomination, but he went to print a new denomination (20 thousand) between two currencies far from each other (10 thousand and 25 thousand) and there is no between them any other currency

Cougar expressed his support for printing small currencies instead of large or high ones because it contributes to creating space for goods entering the country, so that they are sold in a way that serves the citizen more. But the situation would have been better if there were another, lesser currency, such as 150 dinars

Representative Cougar suggests printing the new category gradually, not at once and for varying periods, especially since there is talk about the possibility of printing about 70 trillion Iraqi dinars (about 45 billion dollars) for several categories, especially the 25 thousand dinars category, warning of market inflation in the event that all payments are made. These quantities of categories printed to market

What is the supposed role of the new class?

The appearance of Muhammad Salih, the financial and economic advisor to the Prime Minister, shows the assumed role of the new monetary category, saying that it comes within the framework of improving the Central Bank’s policy in managing the cash payments system, which required - through experience - the need to issue a category (intermediate currency) divisible by two to facilitate Cash payments (not large) within the cash circulation system

Saleh denies that the issuance of a new category of cash circulation is an expression of inflationary conditions, but rather a measure to improve the efficiency of the performance of the cash payments system in the country with intermediate currencies that serve the speed of monetary exchange and facilitate the settlement of transactions

Does the issuance of the new category contribute to the increase in inflation?

Economic researcher Diaa Al-Mohsen acknowledges in his response to the possibility that the issuance of the new category would contribute to increasing inflation or not; The lack of any benefit from the idea of ​​the Iraqi Central in this approach as much as it will be a burden on the economy, as "the more monetary issuances will lead to the disappearance of other monetary categories in the market, and this may lead to a kind of inflation in the Iraqi economy, which exceeded 6%

He describes the Mohsen as a “dangerous indicator of the economy,” especially that the country’s economy is rentier and the real sectors are ineffective, while stressing that Iraq does not need to issue a new currency because it will affect the rate of inflation and therefore the citizen will be harmed by this issuance instead of being a benefit to him.

What is the purpose of printing a new banknote?

In the case of the Central Bank of Iraq, the main objective of issuing a new currency denomination of 20 thousand dinars comes to give individuals greater flexibility in local commercial and financial transactions and obligations, according to the hadith of the economist and academic Ali Dadush, and at the same time its costs will be covered by the difference between the amount of the banknote (as an ordinary paper). ) and its actual amount after trading in the markets, and therefore there is no loss or waste of public money

In return for the printing of any currency by the central banks, Daadush requires that it be matched by assets or assets, whether foreign assets or domestic credits, and then we see the goals that central banks want from issuing or printing new banknotes (or adding new categories of currency), in addition to not ignore printing costs for new or added currency

The economic expert comments on the possibility of the Iraqi currency entering another stage of collapse against the US dollar - as it is said from time to time - that the oil dollars leading to an increase in foreign reserves with the Iraqi Central prevent the collapse of the local currency, through the foreign currency sale window, and also led to confidence relatively individuals in dinars, and the narrowness of the dollarization phenomenon that the Iraqi economy was suffering from   LINK

Samson: The methodology of the interrelationship between oil prices and the exchange rate

7th October, 2022 by Aqil Jaber Ali Al-Muhammadawi

The methodology of the interrelationship between oil prices, the exchange rate and macroeconomic variables in Iraq / a proposal of the Granger measurement model

We would like to discuss a very controversial and challenging topic and the method of dealing in research and analysis and at the level of privacy of expert and specialized opinion building related to this fundamental and strategic issue of estimating the course of fluctuations in oil prices and its relationship to oil prices and macroeconomic variables and its impact on the development of the structure of the global economy in general.

Changes in crude oil prices, especially price fluctuations, are certainly an important factor in determining the global economic structure. Supply and demand in the oil market has a significant impact on world currencies in the exporting countries. In 2014-2016 the oil market was characterized by high volatility. This was affected by a number of fundamental factors. Among them: macroeconomic conditions, market conditions, the transformation of the regulatory component, changes in the cost structure, and the geopolitical and geoeconomic confrontation.t

As it is related to the determinants of fluctuations in world oil prices, from our angle we show that these unstable fluctuations in conditions of uncertainty are subject to the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic indicators and the situation of the global oil market in Iraq, as the world oil price is still one of the most important external factors that affect the exchange rate, the dollar against the dinar. 

Iraq is one of the largest suppliers of “black gold” in the world, and its economy is mainly linked to oil production, with more than 90% of the federal budget’s revenues. Therefore, the slightest fluctuations in oil prices have a strong influence on it. 

The purpose of this subtraction is to study the relationship between macroeconomic variables and oil prices. Objectives: Determining the factors that have a positive long-term relationship with oil prices based on a mathematical approach and preparing proposals to improve the macroeconomic indicators of Iraq.

The authors, analysts and researchers use modern mathematical methods of vector automatic regression (VAR model), the Granger measurement method, and the Dickey-Fowler test to study the long-term and short-term relationships between time series for the period from 2014 to 2016. 1% GDP growth leads to a strengthening of the national currency by 1.47 %. This fact can be explained by the growth of the country's economy as a whole. The results of the Granger test model show that the price of oil (as well as GDP) has the greatest effect on the exchange rate in the short term.

The following actions are proposed to improve macroeconomic indicators in Iraq: Stability of foreign economic policy; Diversification of exports: oil revenues can become a tool for improving the quality of the development of Iraq's economy and the life of society as a whole; Formation of the Iraqi oil standard and increase its trading volumes to the global level; Convert oil payments to dinars or petrodollars; The use of the dinar index (a dinar barrel) for the price of Basra oil in the formation of the financial and economic policy for Iraq.

There are now three major oil indices or markers on three major exchanges:

• WTI crude oil is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
• On the London Petroleum Exchange (IPE) - Brent North Sea Crude (Brent).
• On the Singapore International Commodity Exchange (Simex) - Middle East Oil (Dubai)

Previously, there was an OPEC basket, which included 12 grades of oil. In addition, many oil-exporting countries have their own oil basins that have certain fixed parameters (Statfjord in Norway, Kirkuk in Iraq, two types in Iran - Iran Light and Iran Heavy). The price of oil is determined by differentiation depending on its quality and location in relation to consumers. The drop in oil prices in 2014-2015 was so rapid that it became almost a determining factor in the world's economic and geopolitical structure. In December 2014, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices fell from $100 a barrel to $60 a barrel, and the decline continued into 2015, breaking through $40 a barrel after a slight recovery.

The main reasons for this fall are called “the shift in the methodology of the oil price situation in the oil market.” The world's first shale oil company was created in the United States. The United States provides 95% of its own needs, and is no longer one of the leading countries in global imports. Saudi Arabia has increased production growth. Black gold shipments from Libya and Iraq also started against the backdrop of Iranian exports at dumping prices. These processes have been accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth, improved processing efficiency, changes in the regulatory environment, and geopolitical factors.

The oil market greatly affects the exchange rate in particular. While less influence is observed in the relationship between the dynamics of the dollar index and changes in oil prices. The strengthening of the US dollar, as one of the catalysts for lower oil prices, has not attracted much attention. Since oil prices are set in dollars, when this currency strengthens, cheaper oil is obtained. We are trying to build a path or a Guanger test model to explain and understand the theoretical and empirical aspects of the mutual influence of oil prices and long-term exchange rates.

Accordingly, if the prices of “black gold” in the world market tend to decline (in dollars), the Iraqi economy begins to lose a certain part of the profits from selling oil. Therefore, there is a continuous need to evaluate the devaluation of the national currency in Iraq and the extent of the need for a future devaluation in light of the lack of standard models to measure the reciprocal relationship between fluctuations in oil prices, the exchange rate and macroeconomic variables on a systematic basis. Oil (and gas in the future) is one of Iraq's most important export products. In this regard, the amount of foreign exchange earnings depends on oil prices.

Objectively, we believe that the OPEC + decision is a very successful decision that includes purely economic and geo-economic reasons and geopolitical reasons and justifications in light of the repercussions of the stagnant snowball roll, the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and the urgent need for consumer imports for the ongoing war in light of the presence of indistinctly hidden damages between the leading oil-producing countries. 

The objective function is heading towards restoring balance, stimulating production, rebalancing markets and competition, although the risks of inflation are increasing, but it is gradually absorbed by reducing the quantities of oil production and reducing the margin of costs of production factors, transportation, etc.

The main objective of the great powers is to impede the restoration of the dollar to its true value! This is what we see clear in the precautionary step of the United States of America, with the decision to use the American oil reserves to confront and confront the OPEC + decision. We wonder about Iraq's future oil methodology regarding the decision to reduce oil production and include Iraq by reducing the amount of production of 220 thousand barrels per day, starting from the beginning of next month and for a period of two months?

Iraq should take advantage of the real opportunities for the growing demand for oil and the indicators of price rebound towards rise and stability according to the model drawn by OPEC + by reducing production quantities, and the importance of preparing and developing a new approach methodology for the national oil policy based on advanced thinking and mentality

Targeting national industrial investment and investing in reducing oil quantities and market fluctuations Global and the strength of OPEC + towards the path of building industrial, investment and trade relations with OPEC countries, building the industrial and agricultural base and moving to the approach of building industry and qualifying industrialists according to the industry model, generating promising trade opportunities and a trade model that supports the industry and integration between them?  LINK