Coffee with MarkZ, joined by Zester. 10/07/2026

Coffee with MarkZ, joined by Zester. 10/07/2026

MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions

MZ:  No Andy this morning as he is on an airplane but expects to join us this evening. Decoding the exchange rate move to 1520, and more before Zester joins us to talk tokenization.

 THE CONTENT IN THIS PODCAST IS FOR GENERAL & EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY&NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE ANY PROFESSIONAL, FINANCIAL OR LEGAL ADVICE. PLEASE CONSIDER EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN MARKZ’S OPINION ONLY

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THANK YOU FOR JOINING.  HAVE A BLESSED DAY.  SEE YOU IN THE MORNING FOR COFFEE @ 10:00 AM EST ~ UNLESS BREAKING NEWS HAPPENS!   FOR UPDATES ON MARK’S PODCAST GO TO: https://t.me/+b3hYhYlhKM1hYzcx

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Ariel: Why you Should be Excited about this

Ariel:  Why you Should be Excited about this

10-7-2026

Why You Should Be Excited About This

Eighty-five billion in foreign currency reserves is the war chest that makes a revaluation defensible instead of speculativewhen the CBI moves the rate, those reserves are the guarantee that the new value holds against any market pressure or speculative attack.

Based on the full stack the $85B reserves (28th globally, 3rd in the Arab world per IMF data through mid-2025/Q2 2026), forward oil contracts, gold positioning, non-oil revenue projections, and the measured appreciation posture Washington expects the defensible rate Iraq can post on the Forex this year is 3.85 dinars per dollar.

From Another Source Who Will Remain Anonymous

Why That Particular Rate?

1. $85B against Iraq’s money supply gives real room, but a measured first move preserves the buffer. At 3.85, the Central Bank cuts the gap by roughly two-thirds from 1,310 without burning reserves defending an aggressive peg against speculative attack on day one.

2. Oil sold forward at 2027 delivery locks in dollar inflows that can be priced against a stronger dinar. But those contracts settle over time they support a trajectory, not a cliff jump. 3.85 is the rate those inflows can defend now.

3. Safaa Al-Jabri’s $110B+ projected 2027 sovereign revenue includes customs, taxes, and fees but those collection systems are still being digitized and enforced. Until that revenue is actually captured rather than projected, it argues for a conservative first posting.

4. The U.S. side prefers phased appreciation a strong enough move to kill the parallel market and Iran’s arbitrage channel, but not so violent it destabilizes regional trade or triggers panic liquidation of dinar-denominated debt. 3.85 sits in that corridor: dramatic enough to be historic, stable enough to hold.

Now Please Keep In Mind

Redenomination & Revaluation-

The Important Sequencing Note:

Iraq can do both simultaneously or in phases. Delete the zeros for cash-handling sanity (1.31 becomes the nominal face), then let the rate appreciate against that face or move the rate first. Either path, the wealth event lives entirely in the revaluation leg, not the zero deletion. Anyone telling you the zeros ARE the event is selling theater.

Important Justification:

Iraq’s Treasury is not wiring dollars to Chase and Wells Fargo when you exchange. The mechanics:

• You exchange at a U.S. bank. The bank credits you dollars and takes custody of the dinar.

• The bank offloads the dinar into the secondary market — to the U.S. Treasury’s held positions, to market makers, or back into forex liquidity pools where dinar now trades as an internationally recognized currency.

• Iraq settles against its own currency obligations over time through the CBI’s reserve position and oil-for-dinar mechanics not as a lump-sum payout.

I needed to make this clear for those who will attempt to use those reserves as an excuse as to why it is so impossible for Iraq to go back to 3.22 or 4.00. We are getting paid in secondary markets. We will not be draining Iraq’s reserves or economy.

This is precisely why the reserve figure matters so much: the $85B isn’t a payout fund, it’s the credibility backstop that lets the secondary market absorb redemptions at the new rate without Iraq’s books imploding. The reserves guarantee the currency’s floor; the market handles the flow.

Source(s):
• https://x.com/Prolotario1/status/2107584877633654938

https://dinarchronicles.com/2026/10/06/prolotario-why-you-should-be-excited-about-this/

Reset Intelligence: Devalue, Delete, Revalue

Emailed to Recaps~ Thank you David

Reset Intelligence: Devalue, Delete, Revalue

By Reset Intelligence | @EXIT_FIAT

For about a week one theory has circulated in the dinar community: Iraq lowers the IQD first, deletes the zeros, and only then raises the rate.

This morning the first step happened. Iraq's Council of Ministers approved a new rate and the Central Bank adopted it: 1,500 IQD to the dollar buying from the Finance Ministry, 1,510 selling to the banks and 1,520 selling to the public.

One statement

Safaa al-Jabiri sits on parliament's economy committee. Late on Monday he said: "There is a proposal from the finance minister to adjust the official exchange rate to 150,000 dinars for every $100, but there is no final decision so far." By the next day it was a decision. In the same statement he said that changing Iraq's currency, and possibly deleting the zeros, is under serious discussion inside the Prime Minister's office and the Central Bank.

Everything else that moved

• The budget - after parliament's Finance Committee met Finance Minister Faleh al-Sari, the draft's figures came out: 217 trillion IQD in spending, a 50 trillion deficit, oil at $58 a barrel and 1,500 IQD to the dollar. A committee member said the rate "is subject to change." The cabinet approved it the same day.

• The oil line - an Iraqi oil expert called the budget's 4 million barrels a day of exports "impossible" while the Strait of Hormuz is shut.

• The law - the Central Bank's governor said in September that new banknotes fall under the bank's own authority, while deleting zeros needs a law passed by parliament.

• The street - the dollar closed Tuesday above 163,000 IQD per $100 in Baghdad, before the decision. The bank's price to the banks moves from 131,000 to 151,000.

• The weapons - Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi told tribal sheikhs that 5 armed factions have agreed to hand over their weapons and 3 already have.

• Tehran - Trump said "nobody knows" who is running Iran. A tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz and Oman evacuated 10 of its crew.

The question

Is the step down the first move of a bigger plan, or only a finance ministry short of cash? Nothing in the decision mentions the zeros or a higher rate to follow.

That is the short version. Why a government would lower its currency before changing it, what would have to follow, and how to tell the two stories apart - that is the daily read.

Read the full daily briefing free for 5 days. Sign up here: the daily Iraqi dinar briefing

Want it straight from the horse's mouth? The CBI Rate Alert pings you the moment the Central Bank of Iraq moves the official rate. The number itself, not a rumour about it. It comes with our free resource library and the daily breakdown of what is actually moving in Iraq. Sign up free: The CBI Rate Alert

Got a dinar question? Reset Intelligence runs an on-call research assistant: ask it anything they have published. It answers in seconds and will conduct deep research to find you the answer. Try it: the Iraqi dinar research assistant

Common questions, answered straight: When will the Iraqi dinar revalue? and Is the Iraqi dinar revaluation real?

The design behind all of it is mapped in Head of the Snake, and the free guides live in the Iraqi dinar resource library.

Follow the daily intel free: Telegram · Facebook · Spotify · Odysee

News, Rumors and Opinions Wednesday 10-7-2026

Ariel:  Cabinet Seating as Structural Trigger for the Iraqi Currency Reset

19-7-2026

The Connection Between The Cabinet Seating & The Currency Reset:

Cabinet Seating as Structural Trigger for the Iraqi Currency Reset — Full Mechanics, Sequencing, and Skeptic Dismantlement

THE CORE MECHANISM: WHY A PARTIAL GOVERNMENT CANNOT PULL THIS TRIGGER

Strip away the noise and the connection is mechanical, not mystical.

A currency reset of this magnitude official rate adjustment to 1,500, redenomination, zero removal, new note issuance, international settlement rail integration requires three signatures moving as one body: the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Planning, and the Central Bank of Iraq.

Finance writes the rate into the budget.

Planning certifies every project funding line at the new denomination.

The CBI executes the rate event itself.

If daylight exists between those three signatures even hours of daylight arbitrageurs exploit the seam and the entire event bleeds credibility before it draws first breath.

A caretaker cabinet cannot produce those three signatures with binding authority. Caretaker ministers hold seats; they do not hold mandate. Anything they sign is contestable domestically by successor ministers, internationally by counterparties who will not accept a lame-duck signature on sovereign financial instruments.

The US Treasury compliance pathways, the SEC and CFTC regulatory alignments for the tokenized settlement rails no external counterparty inks those agreements with a government that might not exist in its current form next month. One contested signature and the whole reset gets dragged into international arbitration, where it dies of exposure.

The cabinet seating is the moment every signature becomes unimpeachable. That is the connection. Full stop.

The pens are already on the table in Baghdad. The ministers file toward the oath one by one, and somewhere in the CBI’s vaults, shrink-wrapped pallets of new notes wait under fluorescent light for a signature that is now only days of ceremony away.

When the ninth minister’s hand comes down, the sequence starts and nothing in the old delay playbook can stop a machine whose missing part has finally been bolted into place.

Read Full Article:
https://www.patreon.com/Prolotario1/posts/connection-reset-171617380

https://dinarchronicles.com/2026/10/06/prolotario-cabinet-seating-as-structural-trigger-for-the-iraqi-currency-reset/

************

Courtesy of Dinar Guru:  https://www.dinarguru.com/

MarkZ  [via PDK]  ...some are panicking while others are getting excited...if things play out the way things are shaping up…the way communications say happened last weekend…this will be a big week of structure behind bonds, historic assets etc. and a big weekend with notices for us next weekend…IF it all works out...so we have to watch things play out.

Ariel  Dinar holders aren’t holding paper, they’re holding a claim ticket on the first sovereign currency revaluation of the post-fiat era, and the window between “everything lined up” and “public announcement” is measured in days, for Iraq’s cabinet completion. Not weeks.

Jeff   We could have two golden nuggets later this week.  If they are going to come forward this week, the two golden nuggets will bring you 100% confirmation the rate is about to change... Later this week they could give us the date that they're going to send the '27 budget to parliament along with they could give us the parliamentary date that they're going to vote on the cabinet.

US Debt Crisis Is Entering A Dangerous New Phase | Dr. Mark Thornton

Liberty and Finance:  10-6-2026

Dr. Mark Thornton warns that surging long-term interest rates could expose deep vulnerabilities across the US financial system. He argues that government intervention is failing to stop rising rates while America’s enormous debt burden continues to grow. Thornton also warns that the AI boom may represent another technology-driven bubble fueled by years of artificially low interest rates and excessive investment.

He says declining confidence in the US dollar and the erosion of dollar dominance could ultimately put America on the road to hyperinflation.

Thornton explains why gold, silver, financial independence, and broader personal preparedness could become increasingly important as these risks intensify.

INTERVIEW TIMELINE:

0:00 Intro

1:20 Government manipulation

13:00 Bond market crisis

18:55 AI bubble

29:20 Hyperinflation

35:20 US hegemony

40:30 Mises Institute

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrvltKWAFL4

Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Wednesday Morning 10-7-26

Iraq’s 2027 Budget Draft Sets 217T Dinar Spending

2026-10-06 / 05:08   Shafaq News- Baghdad   Iraq’s draft 2027 federal budget totals 217 trillion dinars ($164.9B), with a projected deficit of 50 trillion dinars ($38B), parliamentary Finance Committee member Abbas Hayal told Shafaq News on Tuesday.  

Hayal said the figures were discussed during the committee’s meeting with Finance Minister Faleh Al-Sari on the draft budget, which sets oil at $58 per barrel, assumes exports of four million barrels per day, and sets the exchange rate at 1,500 dinars per US dollar.

The proposal also provides for moving contract and daily-wage workers onto permanent payrolls and creating 100,000 contract positions, half of them allocated to ministries and security institutions.  

The 100,000 contract positions are expected to be distributed among Iraq’s provinces according to population, with many earmarked for graduates from earlier cohorts who have remained without public-sector employment.  

In a statement, the Finance Committee said the meeting also addressed the distribution of spending between line-item and program- and performance-based budgeting, alongside efforts to diversify state revenues, reduce reliance on oil and contain the deficit.

The meeting followed criticism from the Finance Committee that the Finance Ministry had prepared and advanced the draft without sufficient consultation with parliament.  

In September, Iraq’s Ministerial Council for the Economy approved the draft 2027 federal budget and referred it to the Council of Ministers. Under Iraq’s Finance Administration Law, the draft is due to be submitted to parliament by October 15.  

Iraq had adopted a three-year budget covering 2023–2025 under former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, but parliament did not approve the 2025 spending schedules before the fiscal year ended, and no federal budget law was passed for 2026.  

Read more: $45B deficit looms over Iraq’s draft 2027 budget  

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-s-2027-budget-draft-sets-217T-dinar-spending

"Is The Government Paying For The Deficit From The Citizen's Pocket?"... Ziad Al-Hashemi: Devaluing The Dinar Postpones Reform And Does Not Address Inflation And Waste

Baghdad - One News - 10/06/2026   Economic expert Ziad Al-Hashemi warned of the repercussions of resorting to changing the exchange rate of the dinar as one of the options for dealing with the financial pressures reflected in the 2027 draft budget, considering that reducing the value of the currency, if adopted, would burden citizens with part of the cost of the financial imbalances instead of addressing their root causes.  

Al-Hashemi said in a post published on his account on the “X” platform that the details of the proposed budget and the accompanying talk about the exchange rate indicate, according to his reading, that the government is facing an “uncomfortable” financial situation, given the continued high levels of spending and waste compared to fluctuating revenues.  

He added that relying on oil revenues and continuing to borrow is no longer sufficient to cover the large and increasing public spending, considering that resorting to changing the exchange rate, if approved, would be an option to “buy time” and delay financial reform, which requires stricter measures to address the structure of spending and waste.  

Al-Hashemi believed that reducing the value of the dinar was the easiest option compared to financial reform measures, but it shifts part of the cost of the crisis to the public, instead of addressing the causes of the imbalance in public finance management.  

Regarding the employment file, he pointed out that the talk about providing 150,000 new jobs within the proposed budget, if true, means adding new burdens to the payroll and increasing what he described as the “job overabundance” in state institutions.

He considered that expanding employment could be acceptable if actual employees replaced “ghost employees” after auditing this file, which, according to his vision, would allow for reducing waste and corruption and providing real job opportunities without an unjustified increase in the cost of salaries.  

Al-Hashemi criticized what he described as the continued mistakes of previous budgets and governments, including inflated current spending, continued waste, weak investment spending, and the absence of maximizing the "product" of non-oil revenues, along with "limited implementation of the 'program and performance plan' ".  

He concluded that addressing the financial pressures requires reform that goes beyond changing the exchange rate or continuing to borrow, towards restructuring spending, reducing waste, and boosting non-oil revenues, instead of burdening citizens with part of the cost of the financial imbalance.   https://1news-iq.net/هل-تدفع-الحكومة-ثمن-العجز-من-جيب-الموا/

Economic Warning Regarding Mps' Statements: They Will Increase Market And Dollar Instability In Iraq

Shafaq News - Baghdad   Economic expert Abdul Rahman Al-Mashhadani predicted on Tuesday that the exchange rate of the dollar in the parallel market may exceed the 160,000 dinar mark per 100 dollars, given the continued high demand for foreign currency and conflicting statements regarding monetary policy and the exchange rate.

Al-Mashhadani explained in an interview with Shafaq News Agency that it is not surprising that the dollar exceeded the 160,000 mark, at a time when a member of the Finance Committee is stating that the exchange rate is fixed at 150,000 dinars, while another member is talking about changing the currency, and another about removing zeros, which are files that are not within the jurisdiction of the members of parliament.

He added that continuing such statements does not serve market stability, but rather increases uncertainty among citizens and those dealing in dollars, noting that the market is quickly affected by any talk related to the exchange rate or currency.

Al-Mashhadani continued, saying that the demand for the dollar remains high, especially from travelers and traders who do not want to import through the ASYCUDA system, which keeps the demand for foreign currency in place and puts additional pressure on the exchange rate in the parallel market.  

https://www.shafaq.com/ar/اقتصـاد/تحذير-اقتصادي-من-تصريحات-النواب-تزيد-اضطراب-السوق-والدولار-في-العراق

MP: Restoring Autonomy Opens The Door To Demands For Compensation From Washington

Information/Special...MP Ahmed al-Moussawi affirmed on Tuesday that Iraq's full restoration of its economic, security, and political autonomy will pave the way for demanding reparations from the United States for the war, occupation, and the resulting damage inflicted on the country.

Speaking to Al-Maalouma, al-Moussawi stated, “Iraq’s restoration of its economic, security, and political autonomy will allow it to raise the issue of demanding reparations from the United States for the aggression against and occupation of Iraq,” clarifying that “this issue is contingent upon possessing an independent national decision.”

He added that "the war waged by Washington against Iraq resulted in the death and injury of thousands of Iraqis, in addition to the damage inflicted on infrastructure, the destruction of numerous state institutions and facilities, and the theft of a number of Iraqi properties and assets."

Al-Moussawi indicated that "making an official decision to demand reparations from Washington will not be easy," noting that "the matter requires a national decision and political courage from all political forces."
He pointed out that "the differing positions of the political forces, whether Sunni, Kurdish, or Christian, compared to the positions of the Shiite blocs regarding this issue may hinder progress in demanding compensation," stressing that "resolving it requires broad national consensus and a clear sovereign decision." (End of quote 25)

https://almaalomah-me.translate.goog/news/146311/politics/نائب:-استعادة-السيادة-تفتح-باب-المطالبة-بتعويضات-من-واشنطن?_x_tr_sl=ar&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc

Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Wednesday Morning 10-7-26

Good Morning Dinar Recaps,

INDIA RESET WATCH: RBI HIKES RATES AS RUPEE NEARS RECORD LOW

India’s central bank has begun tightening policy again, but the rupee’s continued weakness shows how powerful global energy, capital-flow and dollar pressures have become.

 OVERVIEW

• The Reserve Bank of India raised its benchmark repo rate 25 basis points to 5.5%, the first increase in nearly four years.

• The rupee nevertheless fell near its record low, reaching 96.8450 per U.S. dollar before closing around 96.78.

• The move highlights a larger global financial challenge: higher interest rates alone may not be enough to protect currencies when energy costs, capital flows and global bond yields are working in the opposite direction.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. RBI Raises Rates for the First Time Since 2023

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unanimously raised its policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%, marking its first rate increase in nearly four years.

The central bank also changed its policy stance from “neutral” to “calibrated tightening,” signaling that additional increases remain possible if inflation pressures continue.

India’s consumer inflation rose to 4.82% in August, above the RBI’s 4% medium-term target for a third consecutive month. At the same time, the economy remains strong, with April-June GDP growth reaching 7.8%.

The combination gives the RBI more room to tighten policy while attempting to contain inflation.

2. The Rupee Falls Despite the Rate Hike

The surprising part of the announcement came from the currency market.

Rather than strengthening significantly after the rate increase, the rupee fell to 96.8450 per dollar, only a fraction away from its record low of 96.96 reached in May.

The currency ultimately closed about 0.4% lower at 96.7750, demonstrating that investors were looking beyond the RBI’s decision and focusing on broader pressures affecting the currency.

Those pressures include foreign portfolio outflows, elevated oil prices, rising global bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar.

3. India Is Facing a Global Currency Problem, Not Just a Domestic One

The RBI’s decision illustrates an important distinction in today's financial system: a central bank can raise interest rates and still struggle to support its currency.

India is heavily dependent on imported energy, making higher oil prices particularly important. When energy costs rise, India must spend more on imports, putting additional pressure on its external accounts and currency.

At the same time, higher U.S. Treasury yields can make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to international investors, encouraging capital to move away from emerging markets.

The result is a difficult policy balancing act—India must fight inflation without placing excessive pressure on economic growth while also trying to stabilize its currency.

WHY IT MATTERS

India is one of the world's major emerging economies, and its currency pressures provide a window into the larger stresses developing across global finance.

The rupee's weakness shows that currency values are increasingly being influenced by forces that cross national borders—energy prices, international capital flows, interest-rate differentials, geopolitical risk and global bond markets.

This is important for the emerging global financial system because countries are becoming increasingly sensitive to financial conditions created outside their own borders.

WHY IT MATTERS TO FOREIGN CURRENCY HOLDERS

For foreign currency holders following the Global Financial Reset, India's experience offers an important lesson: currency stability is built on economic fundamentals, trade strength, monetary policy and international confidence—not simply on a central-bank announcement.

A weaker rupee does not mean a currency revaluation is imminent, nor does it prove that a global reset is occurring on a particular timetable.

What it does demonstrate is that countries are actively adjusting monetary policy and financial strategies as the existing international system comes under pressure from inflation, energy costs, debt and shifting capital flows.

That is the kind of structural change worth watching.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GLOBAL RESET

• Pillar 1: Debt

Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for households, businesses and governments. If more countries move toward tighter monetary policy, the cost of servicing existing debt can become an increasingly important issue.

• Pillar 2: Trade

India's dependence on imported energy demonstrates how closely currency values are tied to global trade. A sustained increase in oil prices can weaken the currencies of major energy importers while strengthening the importance of energy-producing nations.

• Pillar 3: Currency

The rupee's decline despite a rate hike demonstrates that currency strength depends on more than interest rates. Capital flows, trade balances, energy costs and confidence in the broader economy all play a role.

• Pillar 4: Global Financial Architecture

As emerging economies manage greater currency and capital-flow pressures, they have stronger incentives to diversify trade relationships, strengthen domestic financial systems and develop alternative payment and settlement arrangements.

That does not mean the existing dollar-based system disappears overnight. It means the international financial architecture continues to evolve.

THE BOTTOM LINE

India's rate hike is significant because it shows the RBI responding to renewed inflation and currency pressure after years of monetary easing.

But the rupee's immediate decline toward a record low is even more revealing. It demonstrates that one country's monetary policy cannot completely shield its currency from global energy prices, capital movements, bond yields and dollar strength.

For those watching the Global Financial Reset, the important development is not a promise of an overnight currency transformation. It is the continuing restructuring of the economic conditions that determine how currencies function and how nations manage their place in global finance.

The global financial system is not being rebuilt in one dramatic moment—it is evolving through the pressure points where currencies, trade, debt and monetary policy meet.

Seeds of Wisdom Team

Newshounds News

SOURCES

1. Reuters — “Rupee nears record low despite RBI hike, governor says markets can be irrational”

2. Financial Times — “India raises interest rates for first time in 3 years”

~~~~~~~~~~

  A Message to Our Currency Holders🌱

If you’ve been holding foreign currency for many years, you were not foolish.
You were not wrong to believe the global financial system would change.

What failed was not your patience — it was the information you were given.

For years, dates, rumors, and personalities replaced facts, structure, and proof. “This week” predictions created cycles of hope and disappointment that were never based on how currencies actually change.

That is not your failure.

Our mission here is different:   • No dates • No rates • No hype • No gurus

Instead, we focus on:
• Verifiable developments • Institutional evidence
• Global financial structure • Where countries actually sit in the process

Currency value changes only come after sovereignty, trade, banking, settlement systems, and fiscal coordination are in place. History and institutions confirm this sequence.

You will see silence. You will see denials. That is not delay — that is discipline.

Protect your identity. Organize your documents.    Verify everything.
Never hand your discernment to anyone who cannot show proof.

You deserve truth — not timelines.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News

~~~~~~~~~~

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Follow the Gold/Silver Rate COMEX

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Seeds of Wisdom Team™ Website

Thank you Dinar Recaps

How Wars And Geopolitical Conflicts Can Affect Stock Market Performance:

How Wars And Geopolitical Conflicts Can Affect Stock Market Performance: What History Shows And How Investors Can Prepare For Volatility

Sep 29, 2026  Sergei Klebnikov Editorial Staff, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

Geopolitical conflicts can drive short-term market volatility, but history shows the initial sell-off is often more about uncertainty than a lasting change in long-term returns.

The biggest risk to watch is whether the conflict disrupts critical supply chains in ways that spill into inflation, financial conditions, corporate earnings and broader economic growth – energy is one common channel, but not the only one.

 What investors can do: Anchor decisions to your plan (time horizon and cash needs), stay diversified, rebalance with discipline and avoid headline-driven moves like panic selling.

When war dominates the headlines, it’s easy to assume stocks should fall in a straight line. But history suggests the first sell-off is often driven more by uncertainty than by a permanent shift in long-term returns – meaning markets can reprice risk quickly, sometimes before the story is fully clear.

In reality, market declines tied to geopolitics are often driven less by headlines themselves and more by what the event could mean for the economy: whether critical supply chains are disrupted, how that pressure feeds into inflation, and what it implies for interest rates, corporate earnings and overall growth.

When supply disruptions raise costs, the impact can show up not only in company margins but also in household purchasing power and consumption, which ultimately matters for earnings.

Every conflict is different, outcomes are uncertain and markets can remain volatile as events unfold. A useful way to frame geopolitical risk is as a set of potential supply and demand shocks – for example, disruptions to energy, shipping lanes, industrial inputs or technology chokepoints – and then to ask how those shocks transmit through inflation, financial conditions, earnings and growth.

History can be a useful anchor for decision-making – not for making predictions – and may help investors distinguish short-term noise from longer-term fundamentals.

Below, we’ll cover how markets have tended to react to wars and major geopolitical events; what usually drives sustained moves beyond the initial shock; and practical steps long-term investors can take to prepare for geopolitical risk without overreacting.

How wars can move the stock market (and why reactions may vary)

War and other geopolitical shocks tend to move markets through two forces: a sudden surge in uncertainty and the economic ripple effects that follow. That’s why the initial reaction can be sharp even if the longer-term impact ends up being more muted – or simply different – than the headlines imply.

In the initial shock phase, markets may respond to the unknowns. When outcomes are unclear, investors may quickly reassess the range of possible economic paths and reprice risk.

Volatility may jump and equities may sell off. In credit markets, that repricing can show up as investors demanding more compensation to hold riskier or more directly impacted debt. That can push credit spreads wider and effectively tighten financial conditions.

As more information emerges, markets often shift into a second phase: repricing based on what the conflict may mean for the economy and policy. Reactions can diverge depending on whether the situation threatens critical supply chains (energy is one example), disrupts production inputs, alters trade routes, or meaningfully affects major economies. Policy responses can also be pivotal, from sanctions and export controls to changes in fiscal spending.

Ultimately, sustained market moves are often driven less by the event itself than by whether it changes the macro path via inflation, interest rates, corporate earnings and economic growth.

Investors may want to focus on whether geopolitical developments are transmitting through the economy and markets – especially through critical supply chains and production, economic activity and demand, inflation expectations, financial conditions, and corporate profitability.

What history shows: Wars often trigger volatility more than lasting declines

History suggests geopolitical events like wars often cause short-lived volatility, and – barring a major economic disruption – the market impact tends to fade over time. In many cases, that looks like an initial, uncertainty-driven drawdown followed by stabilization or recovery as outcomes narrow and attention returns to fundamentals like earnings, inflation and policy.

Recent episodes suggest markets have been recovering from geopolitical flare-ups more quickly: After a nearly 10% drop in the S&P 500 at the outset of the Iran conflict earlier this year, the benchmark index recovered to pre-conflict levels in just 11 trading sessions. But the more durable takeaway for portfolios is that because the shock phase is dominated by uncertainty and shifting probabilities, market leadership can rotate as the situation evolves – reinforcing why portfolios are typically better built for a range of outcomes.

One reason geopolitical-related sell-offs may prove so short-lived is that markets are forward-looking. Prices adjust quickly to reflect new probabilities – sometimes within days – so once the “shock” is incorporated, further headlines may have less impact unless they change the economic outlook in a material way.

TO READ MORE:  https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/wars-geopolitical-conflicts-and-stock-market-performance

GP Q: Same Week, Three Separate Stories

GP Q: Same Week, Three Separate Stories

10-6-2026

Same week, three separate stories.

An overview: Easy to mash them into a “reset.” They are not one.

Seoul, 3 October. XRP Asia launched at the Grand Hyatt during Korea Blockchain Week.

XRP Seoul, hosted by XRPL Korea with Ripple as title sponsor, pulled more than 5,000 people.

The new body is backed by Ripple and the XRP Ledger Foundation, based in Singapore, and run by Sabrina Tachdjian, who used to handle fintech and payments at the Hedera Foundation.

The brief is practical: developer education, hackathons, startup grants, and backing the existing Korea and Japan communities while building others across Asia-Pacific. Woori, KakaoBank, K Bank, Kyobo Securities, Meritz and Jeonbuk were in the room on cross-border payments and tokenized deposits. Jeonbuk already uses Ripple Payments for corporate remittances, REPLACING multi-day SWIFT windows.

That is a live rail. It is not the same as the panel signing up to settle in XRP, and neither Woori nor KakaoBank announced they had joined XRP Asia or deployed the ledger.

Washington moved because Congress didn’t.

The CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate last month, so on 5 October CFTC Chair Mike Selig put Regulation CTX and Regulation CAM out at Fordham Law.

CTX covers crypto transactions done with margin, leverage or financing. CAM is a new venue category for exchanges that want to offer that to retail under one federal setup instead of a stack of state money-transmitter licenses.

Reuters noted proof-of-reserves and anti-manipulation requirements.

No fixed leverage cap, but a leveraged product would still need CFTC staff clearance.

Selig was plain about the hole: the agency cannot force ordinary spot trading onto its platforms.

That part of CLARITY needed a law. This is an opt-in lane, written because the bill failed, and he said they would keep going with or without Congress.

The products are narrower than the headlines.

On 2 October the SEC approved Cboe BZX rule SR-CboeBZX-2026-065, Release 34-106577, so Volatility Shares can list six 3x daily funds:
Bitcoin, Ether, gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas.

Cboe filed on 10 August.

No public comments.

US crypto funds had been stuck at 2x — Volatility Shares already runs BITX and ETHU — after staff pushed back in December 2025 on anything above that, and waved off 5x filings in March.

These new ones target three times the daily move of first- and second-month futures, with cash as collateral, not coins in a vault.

Tickers floated for the crypto pair include BITH and ETHK.

They are not trading.

The registration statement still has to go effective, and the order sets no date.

Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas called the listing a win for the issuer and a trading tool, not an investment.

Payments talks in Asia, with one bank already off SWIFT.

Rules written because the Senate bill died.

Triple-leverage futures funds one filing away from a US listing. That’s the week.

No switch flipped.
The rails are real.
A promised revaluation is not.
Watch who is moving money. Ignore who is only on stage.

Source(s):
• https://x.com/argosaki/status/2107332804086534559

https://dinarchronicles.com/2026/10/06/gp-q-same-week-three-separate-stories/

FRANK26….10-6-26….1500 TESTED

KTFA

Tuesday Night Video

FRANK26….10-6-26….1500 TESTED

This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only

Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie and Omar in Iraq and guests

Playback Number: 605-313-5163   PIN: 156996#

What Frank’s suit color’s mean…. FRANKS SUIT COLORS FOR CC'S..... WHITE = NEW INFO…. SILVER = INTEL FROZEN…. RED= HIGH ALERT… PURPLE=GUEST WITH US…. BLUE = AIR FORCE…. BLACK = GROUND/FF’S…. GREEN= MR OR FAB 4 ... GOLD = CHANGE… ORANGE=IMPLEMENTATION

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAf1ykyue1g

Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Tuesday Evening 10-6-26

Iraq Considers Raising Official Dollar Rate To 1,500 IQD And Dropping Currency Zeros

Iraq   Jawad Al-Samarraie   October 6, 2026

Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) – Safaa Al-Jabri, member of parliament for the Al-Sadiqoun bloc and member of the Parliamentary Economic Committee, revealed that the federal government is reviewing a proposal to adjust Iraq’s official exchange rate from 1,310 dinars to 1,500 dinars per U.S. dollar, while advancing high-level deliberations to redenominate the national currency and potentially remove zeros.

Speaking in a televised interview, Al-Jabri projected that sovereign state revenues for the 2027 federal budget will surpass $110 billion, declaring that Iraq has successfully weathered the acute economic fallout triggered by past disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and Basra export halts.

According to Al-Jabri, fiscal parameters for the upcoming national budget are being restructured on the back of rising non-oil customs and tax receipts, an unprecedented $8 billion to $10 billion generated from domestic petroleum sales, and projected crude oil export earnings exceeding $85 billion.

He noted that Iraqi crude sales currently benchmark around $80 to $82 per barrel, generating approximately $5 billion in monthly export revenues, providing budgetary headroom as trade bottlenecks and logistics gradually normalize.

Regarding currency and fiscal policy, Al-Jabri highlighted key government plans:

• Official Exchange Rate Revision: Leaked preliminary drafts of the federal budget proposal—which carries a planned deficit between 25 and 30 trillion dinars—contain a formal submission from the Minister of Finance proposing to adjust the official statutory exchange rate to 150,000 dinars per $100 (1,500 IQD per USD). Al-Jabri noted that no binding cabinet decision has been finalized to date.

• Currency Redenomination: Serious technical discussions are underway between the Prime Minister’s Office and the Central Bank of Iraq regarding currency redesign and the removal of three zeros. The measure is currently stalled only by legal jurisdictional reviews to identify the specific governing authority legally empowered to greenlight and execute the structural transition.

• Critique of Past Budget Frameworks: Al-Jabri criticized previous administrations for populist fiscal practices, claiming that state budgets were prepared through rote copy-paste mechanisms for nearly twenty years under former Finance Minister Taif Sami, who had risen through the ministry ranks from director general of budget to minister.

• Public Liabilities & Contract Terminations: The lawmaker highlighted structural financial arrears inherited by the treasury, including outstanding wheat procurement payouts owed to local farmers, unpaid rationing supply dues claimed by Al-Owais Company across 2025 and 2026, and 33 billion dinars in overdue liabilities tied to road and bridge construction. In response, Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi has canceled legacy public work contracts where execution progress remained below 20 percent.

The potential devaluation of the official dinar to 1,500 IQD per dollar represents an effort to narrow the spread with the parallel currency market—which recently traded above 160,000 dinars per $100—while curbing the planned fiscal deficit for the 2027 fiscal cycle.

https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/iraq-considers-raising-official-dollar-rate-1500-iqd-currency-zeros-2026/

Why Iraq's Dinar Keeps Sliding Despite Fresh US Cash

 2026-10-06  Shafaq News- Baghdad (Updated at 16:58)   The US dollar has climbed above 1,630 Iraqi dinars on Iraq's parallel market, about 21% above the official retail rate of 1,320, even as new shipments of US cash arrive to ease liquidity. Bankers and economists told Shafaq News the extra dollars alone are unlikely to close the gap while speculation, policy confusion and demand outside the banking system persist.  

Iraq runs two exchange rates: an official one, at which the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) sells dollars through banks for trade, travel and other approved needs, and a parallel street rate set by supply and demand. Traders on the parallel market quote prices per $100, and the rate passed 160,000 dinars on Monday.  

Demand for dollars far exceeds supply, according to economist Ali Daadoush. He pointed to speculation and uncertainty, delays in official bank transfers, and rising demand to pay for imports from Iran. Much of the cash circulating on the parallel market, he said, starts as dollars sold at the official rate to Iraqis for travel, study and medical treatment, which are then resold locally, pushing the rate higher and making it more volatile.  

Demand is also coming from travelers and from traders who prefer not to import through ASYCUDA, the electronic customs system Iraq uses to track imports, said economist Abdul Rahman al-Mashhadani, keeping steady pressure on the parallel rate.

New shipments can improve liquidity, but their effect on the parallel market depends on how quickly the dollars reach people with legitimate needs, said Nabil al-Abadi, managing director of the Union Bank of Iraq. “Narrowing the gap requires a stronger banking sector and easier access to foreign currency through official channels, so that fewer people turn to the street.”  

The CBI's foreign reserves fell to $80.6 billion at the end of July 2026 from $97.4 billion at the end of 2025, a drop of about $16.8 billion, or 17.2%, in seven months, according to central bank data.  

On September 19, the CBI said its reserves remained sufficient to finance foreign trade, settle bank-card payments and supply cash dollars to travelers at the official rate. It blamed the parallel market rise on speculation, market expectations and the exploitation of regional tensions.  

Al-Mashhadani said that conflicting statements from members of parliament are adding to the uncertainty. “One member of parliament's finance committee has said the rate is fixed at 1,500 dinars per dollar, another has spoken of changing the currency, and a third of removing zeros from it,” he said, adding that none of these matters falls within lawmakers' powers, and with the market reacting quickly to any such talk, it was no surprise to see the dollar break 1,600.  

In the Kurdistan Region, Jabar Goran, spokesman for Al-Sulaymaniyah's currency exchange market, likewise said decisions on the rate rest solely with the CBI. He warned of a backlash if the government set the rate at 1,500 dinars per dollar in the federal budget, though he did not expect it to do so. "The reaction of citizens and the market would be very negative," he told a press conference.  

Expectations have become a force of their own. Fears of a stronger dollar push traders and individuals to buy in anticipation of further gains, adding to demand and widening the gap. Additional cash may ease pressure in the short term, bankers and economists say, but it is unlikely to hold the rate.  
Read more: Experts: Iraq dollar gap reflects limited dollar access  

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Why-Iraq-s-dinar-keeps-sliding-despite-fresh-US-cash

The Dollar Exchange Rate Set At 150,000 Dinars Per 100 Dollars For The 2027 Budget "Is Subject To Change."

Channel8 English   @Channel8English    Following the conclusion of the meeting between the Iraqi Finance Committee and the Minister of Finance, lawmaker and committee member Rebwar Karim told reporters that the dollar exchange rate set at 150,000 Dinars per 100 Dollars for the 2027 budget "is subject to change."

https://x.com/Channel8English/status/2107414834333811063

Economic Warning Regarding Mps' Statements: They Will Increase Market And Dollar Instability In Iraq

Shafaq News - Baghdad   Economic expert Abdul Rahman Al-Mashhadani predicted on Tuesday that the exchange rate of the dollar in the parallel market may exceed the 160,000 dinar mark per 100 dollars, given the continued high demand for foreign currency and conflicting statements regarding monetary policy and the exchange rate.

Al-Mashhadani explained in an interview with Shafaq News Agency that it is not surprising that the dollar exceeded the 160,000 mark, at a time when a member of the Finance Committee is stating that the exchange rate is fixed at 150,000 dinars, while another member is talking about changing the currency, and another about removing zeros, which are files that are not within the jurisdiction of the members of parliament.

He added that continuing such statements does not serve market stability, but rather increases uncertainty among citizens and those dealing in dollars, noting that the market is quickly affected by any talk related to the exchange rate or currency.

Al-Mashhadani continued, saying that the demand for the dollar remains high, especially from travelers and traders who do not want to import through the ASYCUDA system, which keeps the demand for foreign currency in place and puts additional pressure on the exchange rate in the parallel market.  

https://www.shafaq.com/ar/اقتصـاد/تحذير-اقتصادي-من-تصريحات-النواب-تزيد-اضطراب-السوق-والدولار-في-العراق

Leaks Are Confusing The Market... Al-Khafaji Warns Against The Chaos Of Talk About Changing The Exchange Rate: Where Is The Dollar Headed?

October 6, 2026Last updated: October 6, 2026   The Independent/- The escalating controversy over the possibility of changing the dollar exchange rate has reopened one of the most sensitive economic files in Iraq, amid warnings that continued leaks and unofficial statements could push markets into further turmoil, even before any governmental or monetary decision is issued on the matter.

MP Mohammed Al-Khafaji warned of the repercussions of the repeated talk about changing the dollar exchange rate, stressing that presenting figures and predictions in the media and social media platforms, without an official decision, directly affects the movement of the market and impacts the expectations of traders, citizens and those dealing in foreign currency.

Al-Khafaji said in a post that the file of determining the exchange rate falls primarily within the powers of the Central Bank of Iraq and its Board of Directors, according to the Central Bank Law No. 56 of 2004, as amended.

He pointed out that Article 16 of the law grants the Central Bank’s Board of Directors the authority to formulate the policies necessary to achieve the objectives of monetary policy, including exchange rate policy, while Article 4 defines the bank’s responsibility for formulating and implementing monetary policy and managing foreign exchange policy in Iraq.

He explained that the Central Bank’s legal authority does not mean that a decision as significant as changing the exchange rate is taken in isolation from the government, given its broad impact on the general budget, prices, citizens’ purchasing power, and commercial activity.

According to Al-Khafaji, previous experiences have shown that there is coordination between the Central Bank and the government when making major decisions related to the exchange rate, while the financial impact of the decision is also linked to the general budget accounts, which need to be approved by the Cabinet and then legislated by the House of Representatives.

This controversy comes amid growing talk about the 2027 budget, and the circulation of different figures regarding the potential exchange rate that the government may rely on in calculating revenues and expenditures, without a final and official decision being announced yet.

Observers believe that the sensitivity of the issue lies in the fact that merely talking about reducing the value of the dinar or adjusting the official price could lead to an increase in demand for the dollar in the parallel market, especially if traders believe that an imminent change will occur in monetary policy, which may lead to speculation and a preemptive increase in prices.

Al-Khafaji criticized what he described as “the chaos of leaks, statements, and media scoops,” questioning the usefulness of circulating information related to the exchange rate before a clear official position is issued by the competent authorities.

The concerns are even more pronounced given that the price of the dollar in Iraq is linked to the prices of imported goods and the costs of trade and transportation, making any disruption in the parallel market likely to spread quickly to the prices of a large number of products and services.

Given the numerous statements and assessments regarding the future of the exchange rate, attention remains focused on the Central Bank and the government as the two entities capable of ending the uncertainty by announcing an official and clear position on monetary policy and the exchange rate in the next stage.

Al-Khafaji concluded his post with a striking question: “What is the dollar exchange rate now?”—a reference to the direct impact that leaks and political and media controversy can have on the market. The main question facing citizens and traders remains: Where is the dollar headed if talk of changing the exchange rate continues without an official decision

https://mustaqila.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B3%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%83-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%AD%D8%B0%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%81/

What A High-Trust Society Looks Like Up Close

What A High-Trust Society Looks Like Up Close

Notes From the Field  (Schiff/Sovereign Man)  October 6, 2026

[Editor’s note: This letter was written by Schiff Sovereign’s CEO, Viktorija, who is originally from Lithuania but splits her time between Mexico and Panama.]

The first thing I noticed at Seoul’s Iuncheon airport was the luggage.  People had just left their suitcases sitting there— against pillars, next to benches, by the exits— and wandered off to the bathroom or to grab a coffee. Nobody looked back.

Forget about thieves for a minute; just try leaving an unattended bag in a US airport, and watch the place go into lockdown while the bomb squad swarms in.

A few days later I was in a small local café when the woman next to me stood up, left her phone face-up on the table, and walked off. She was gone for several minutes.

When she came back, she picked up her phone like it was nothing.

South Korea is a high-trust society. When you’re on the ground, you feel it before you can explain it. People here just assume that everyone else is going to follow the rules, and they’re almost always right.

It’s not just the obvious stuff, like Korea’s ultra-low murder rate. It’s little things too.

Last year, for example, passengers on Seoul’s metro left around $300,000 on the trains— lost wallets, money that fell out of people’s pockets, etc. About three-quarters of that cash was returned to the rightful owners. Crazy.

The Seoul subway, by the way, is the best I’ve ever been on— and I’ve been to more than 100 countries. It’s spotless, the trains show up when the sign says they will, and a ride costs a little over a dollar.

I’ve been to Seoul before, but this time I was blown away by how much had changed. The whole city feels like living in the future.

At one café, my espresso was made by a robot. At my hotel, room service arrived on a robot that drove itself down the hallway, stopped at my door, and handed over the tray.

And nobody else seemed to find any of this remarkable.

The factories are even farther along. South Korea has more robots per factory worker than ANY country in the world— about four times as many as the US.

Korea needs them. It has the same problem as America and nearly every other rich country, only worse: people aren’t having enough kids. Korea’s birth rate is one of the lowest in the world, and its working-age population is already shrinking.

But instead of waiting around for the worker shortage to solve itself, the Koreans are building machines to do the work.

I think about economic growth a lot; it’s a big part of my job at Schiff Sovereign. And South Korea’s is remarkable, if you know the backstory.

In 1960, South Korea was poorer than Ghana. Today it’s about fifteen times richer.

And the Koreans haven’t let up. South Korea puts more than 5% of its ENTIRE economy into research and development every year; only Israel spends more.

Most of that money comes from private companies. But the government keeps raising the bar too: this year’s research budget is the biggest in the country’s history.

It’s not just robotics— it’s everything from semiconductors to medical research.

In fact medical treatment is a booming industry; about two million foreigners came to Korea for medical treatment last year, which is a record. Most of them, admittedly, came for skin treatments and cosmetic work.

But Korea is also world class in regenerative medicine— stem cell treatments that repair damaged tissue, anti-aging therapies, etc. This is serious medicine, not spa tourism.

Korean regulators approved a stem cell treatment for worn-out knee cartilage back in 2012… and more than 35,000 patients have received it since.

Since last year, Korean law has also allowed patients with severe or rare diseases to receive new cell-based treatments that haven’t finished the full approval process.

It’s amazing what can happen when a country allows science and medicine to advance instead of stifling them.

To me, it all sounds a lot like America in the 1950s.

America back then was an exciting, high-functioning, high-trust society. People had a strong work ethic and shared values, and they made intelligent decisions for the future.

When America had just become the world’s dominant superpower, the Eisenhower administration built the federal highway system, and Congress paid for it with a tax on gasoline instead of borrowing the money.

Around that time, roughly 75% of Americans said they trusted the federal government to do the right thing. Today it’s less than 20%.

Frankly I think that if you’re thinking about cutting-edge medical care, Korea ought to be be on your radar.

But ultimately, Seoul is a reflection of what a high-trust society with shared values looks like… and of what a country can become when it does rational, sensible things to focus on a better future.

Viktorija   CEO, Schiff Sovereign LLC

P.S. Finding places that work is a big part of what we do. Schiff Sovereign’s flagship research service, Plan B Confidential, covers second residencies and citizenships, foreign banking, and legal tax strategies, with boots-on-the-ground reports from all over the world.


https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/what-a-high-trust-society-looks-like-up-close-156061/?inf_contact_key=0e6f6066152f04de606fdf0f17e5425f75ed3b9f1880b1bad6530b4fabbb2716