Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Late Saturday Evening 7-18-26
Uncertainty Mounts Over Iraqi Dinar as Exchange Rate Faces New Risks
Shanya Salar — The Iraqi dinar has entered a period of heightened uncertainty following Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi's return from Washington. Analysts say its direction will depend on the implementation of recent economic agreements, developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and Iraq's internal security situation.
Uncertainty Mounts Over Iraqi Dinar as Exchange Rate Faces New Risks
Shanya Salar — The Iraqi dinar has entered a period of heightened uncertainty following Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi's return from Washington. Analysts say its direction will depend on the implementation of recent economic agreements, developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and Iraq's internal security situation.
Washington Agreements and the Development Fund
During his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi announced that U.S. military forces will withdraw from Iraq on September 30 this year, marking what he described as the beginning of a commercial partnership phase.
To guarantee the financial entitlements of American companies, a special fund will be established. A portion of Iraq's daily oil revenue will be allocated to this fund to finance companies investing in the country.
Strait of Hormuz and the 2027 Budget
The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the main risks facing the Iraqi dinar.
If the strategic waterway remains closed, drafting Iraq's 2027 federal budget could become extremely difficult. Under such circumstances, the government may be unable to prepare the budget based on the current exchange rate, resulting in a wider fiscal deficit.
This scenario could prompt the Central Bank of Iraq to devalue the dinar against the U.S. dollar by adjusting the official exchange rate to between IQD 1,450 and IQD 1,520 per dollar.
Security Situation and Public Confidence
Another key factor affecting the dinar's value is the government's ability to bring weapons under state control.
If al-Zaidi fails to compel armed groups to disarm by September 30 and Iraq enters a period of internal conflict, public confidence in the dinar could decline sharply, increasing pressure on the currency and the broader economy.
Optimistic Scenario
Under a more favorable scenario, the outlook for the dinar would improve if tensions between the United States and Iran ease, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and armed groups disarm.
In that case, the entry of American companies to develop new oil wells and increase exports could strengthen the dinar and contribute to greater market stability.
Exchange Rate Forecast
Forecasts suggest that the exchange rate could fluctuate between IQD 151,000 and IQD 155,000 per $100 from now until September 30.
However, if regional conflict continues and domestic security tensions worsen, analysts warn that the exchange rate could exceed IQD 160,000 per $100, placing the Iraqi dinar under severe pressure.
Raqis Doubt Anti-Corruption Campaign Will Reach Senior Officials
2026-07-18 / 14:06 Shafaq News- Baghdad Iraqis interviewed by Shafaq News said the government's anti-corruption campaign, known as the Dawn Crackdown (Sawlat al-Fajr), will be judged by whether prosecutions reach senior political figures rather than by the number of detentions announced.
Security forces detained at least 47 suspects in the first 24 hours after the operation began on June 28, according to government figures, a total that informed sources within the Federal Commission of Integrity, Iraq's principal anti-corruption body, later put at 67.
No updated official total has been released since.
Read more: Iraq detains top officials in anti-corruption sweep: What we know so far
Support for the arrests is broad among those interviewed, but conditional. Ammar Al-Sayyid, 38, from Baghdad, said Iraqis back both the government and the judiciary in pursuing corrupt officials, and that the campaign will hold credibility “only if the law applies equally to individuals, political parties, and influential figures.”
That condition, equal application, recurred across the interviews. Ismail Mohammed, 25, from Basra, said public opinion will shift only if investigations “extend beyond lower-ranking suspects to influential political figures,” a threshold he said the campaign has not yet crossed.
Read more: Iraq's Dawn Crackdown by numbers: 67 arrests explained
Nazhir Mohammed, 56, from Dhi Qar, who also supports the publication of corruption cases, said reporting should follow cases past the initial detention to court rulings and recovered funds. “Without that, foreign audiences may come to associate Iraq more with corruption than with the effort to confront it.”
Iraq ranked 136th out of 182 countries in the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index published by Transparency International. UNDP Resident Representative for Iraq Titon Mitra placed losses from corruption and financial mismanagement between $150 billion and $450 billion in assets, or almost 20 percent of Iraq’s public.
Read more: Can Iraq recover billions in stolen assets abroad?
https://shafaq.com/en/society/Iraqis-doubt-anti-corruption-campaign-will-reach-senior-officials
North Oil Company Says Kirkuk Pipeline Ready For Pumping
2026-07-18 16:40 Shafaq News- Kirkuk Iraq's state-run North Oil Company has completed the technical and engineering work needed to begin receiving and pumping crude in Kirkuk through the strategic pipeline running to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, the company said on Saturday.
The first step is filling the 40-inch line to carry crude to the IT1A pumping station, after which oil will be pumped through the 46-inch line for a full-load trial run conducted with the relevant authorities.
IT1A is ready to receive and pump between 300,000 and 350,000 barrels per day, according to the company, as part of preparations to resume exports through the northern system.
What The Route Would Change
The northern outlet matters because Iraq currently depends almost entirely on its southern ports for crude exports, according to Ali Khalil, an oil and energy specialist who spoke to Shafaq News. Restarting shipments through Ceyhan would give the country a second strategic export route, add flexibility, cut transport costs and improve the economics of the northern fields, he said.
North Oil Company produces around 325,000 barrels per day from fields in Kirkuk province and adjacent areas. Most of that volume currently goes to domestic refineries and to supplying other oil installations, which Khalil said makes reopening the northern export outlet necessary to absorb any future rise in output.
“The announced capacity of IT1A, at 300,000 to 350,000 barrels per day, roughly matches the company's present production, meaning the line could carry most of the crude from Kirkuk's fields once fully in service.”
Khalil explained that a successful full-load trial would clear the way for export volumes to be raised gradually, and development projects run by the Oil Ministry and the company, alongside new investment plans in the Kirkuk fields, “could push production above current levels, which in turn would require export infrastructure capable of handling the increase.”
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/North-Oil-Company-says-Kirkuk-pipeline-ready-for-pumping
Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Sunday Morning 7-19-26
Good Morning Dinar Recaps,
ECB Advances Digital Euro Plans While Monitoring Inflation Risks
Europe's central bank continues building the foundation for a digital payment system as geopolitical tensions reshape monetary policy decisions.
Good Morning Dinar Recaps,
ECB Advances Digital Euro Plans While Monitoring Inflation Risks
Europe's central bank continues building the foundation for a digital payment system as geopolitical tensions reshape monetary policy decisions.
Overview
• The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates steady while continuing work on the digital euro, a project designed to modernize Europe's payment infrastructure.
• Rising energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict remain a key inflation risk, influencing future monetary policy decisions.
• The ECB is also evaluating changes to bank reserve requirements while preparing for the next phase of the digital euro initiative.
Key Developments
1. ECB Balances Inflation and Financial Stability
The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting while monitoring whether higher oil prices create renewed inflation. Officials are taking a cautious approach as geopolitical events continue influencing global markets.
2. Digital Euro Project Continues Moving Forward
Work on the digital euro continues after receiving additional political support within Europe. The project is intended to strengthen Europe's payment system, reduce dependence on foreign payment networks, and improve cross-border transactions across the European Union.
3. Reserve Requirement Changes Under Review
The ECB is also considering increasing minimum reserve requirements for commercial banks. Such a move could reduce excess liquidity while helping the central bank manage inflation more effectively over time.
Why It Matters
The ECB's decisions extend beyond interest rates. Europe is simultaneously managing inflation, strengthening financial resilience, and modernizing its payment infrastructure through the development of the digital euro.
As geopolitical tensions affect energy markets and global trade, central banks are increasingly focused on building payment systems that are more resilient, efficient, and less dependent on external financial networks.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
For those following a potential Global Financial Reset, the continued development of the digital euro represents another significant step toward modernization of the international monetary system. While this does not indicate an immediate currency revaluation, it demonstrates that major central banks continue investing in next-generation payment infrastructure that could influence future cross-border settlements and reserve currency dynamics.
Implications for the Global Reset
Pillar 2: Trade
Modern payment systems and digital currencies are becoming increasingly important for international trade, helping reduce settlement times and improve cross-border financial efficiency.
Pillar 4: Technology
The continued development of the digital euro reflects the global transition toward digital financial infrastructure, tokenized payments, and modernized central bank payment systems.
Future Outlook
Attention now turns to the ECB's upcoming policy meeting and additional details regarding the digital euro's implementation timeline. Markets will also closely watch inflation trends, energy prices, and geopolitical developments, all of which could influence future interest-rate decisions and the pace of Europe's digital financial transformation.
This is not simply about interest rates—it reflects the broader transformation of the global financial system as central banks modernize payment infrastructure, strengthen monetary resilience, and prepare for the next generation of international finance.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
~~~~~~~~~~
🌱 A Message to Our Currency Holders🌱
If you’ve been holding foreign currency for many years, you were not foolish.
You were not wrong to believe the global financial system would change.
What failed was not your patience — it was the information you were given.
For years, dates, rumors, and personalities replaced facts, structure, and proof. “This week” predictions created cycles of hope and disappointment that were never based on how currencies actually change.
That is not your failure.
Our mission here is different: • No dates • No rates • No hype • No gurus
Instead, we focus on:
• Verifiable developments • Institutional evidence
• Global financial structure • Where countries actually sit in the process
Currency value changes only come after sovereignty, trade, banking, settlement systems, and fiscal coordination are in place. History and institutions confirm this sequence.
You will see silence. You will see denials. That is not delay — that is discipline.
Protect your identity. Organize your documents. Verify everything.
Never hand your discernment to anyone who cannot show proof.
You deserve truth — not timelines.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News
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Global Currencies are about to Collapse: Dr. Scott Young:
Global Currencies are about to Collapse
Dr. Scott Young:
Dr. Scott Young, in a recent insightful video, delves into critical questions surrounding the stability of global fiat currencies and the possible role of the US Treasury in precipitating significant economic shifts.
His analysis offers a thought-provoking perspective on current debt dynamics, currency valuations, and the potential for a radical overhaul of our financial systems.
Global Currencies are about to Collapse
Dr. Scott Young:
Dr. Scott Young, in a recent insightful video, delves into critical questions surrounding the stability of global fiat currencies and the possible role of the US Treasury in precipitating significant economic shifts.
His analysis offers a thought-provoking perspective on current debt dynamics, currency valuations, and the potential for a radical overhaul of our financial systems.
Dr. Young begins by dissecting the intricate web of foreign debt dynamics, highlighting a concerning trend: the deteriorating position of major foreign holders of US debt, notably Japan and China.
For decades, these nations have been significant players in financing US government expenditures, but their ability and willingness to continue at previous levels appear to be waning. This shift, he argues, has profound implications for global financial stability.
A central theme in his discussion is the pervasive rise of debt-to-income ratios across the globe. This unsustainable accumulation of debt, both sovereign and private, is creating immense pressure on national economies.
Dr. Young points to a stark illustration of this stress: the plummeting values of various international currencies against the US dollar. He specifically references the Canadian dollar, Turkish lira, Vietnamese dong, and Iranian rial as examples of currencies struggling with their own unsustainable debt burdens and economic challenges, leading to significant depreciation. This broad pattern suggests a systemic vulnerability that extends far beyond individual nations.
The video then pivots to a more direct examination of US Treasury holdings and raises a compelling, albeit speculative, hypothesis.
Dr. Young asserts that the current rate of debt rollover for US Treasuries is unsustainable. As foreign appetite for US debt diminishes and domestic obligations mount, the financial system faces immense pressure.
He explores the possibility that this might not merely be an economic accident, but potentially a deliberate, strategic maneuver by the US Treasury—or other powerful entities—to orchestrate a “reset” or even a complete transformation of the existing fiat currency system.
This assertion invites a deeper consideration of the underlying motivations behind such a monumental shift. If the current trajectory is indeed unsustainable, a managed transition, however disruptive, might be viewed in some circles as a necessary precursor to a more stable future. Dr. Young’s analysis encourages viewers to look beyond conventional economic explanations and consider the long-term strategic implications of current financial trends.
Adding another layer to his analysis, Dr. Young introduces the concept of the Quantum Financial System (QFS). This theoretical framework suggests a highly advanced and secure financial architecture designed to replace the current system.
According to the video, central banks globally are rumored to be secretly accumulating massive amounts of gold, not merely as a traditional hedge, but as a crucial preparatory step for this impending financial system overhaul.
The Quantum Financial System, as described in the video, is envisioned to operate under military oversight, promising a new era of transparency, security, and stability.
While the concept of QFS remains a subject of considerable discussion and speculation, Dr. Young presents it as a potential solution to the current financial turmoil, offering a glimpse into a future where monetary systems are managed with unprecedented levels of control and accountability. The transition, if it were to occur, would represent one of the most significant economic shifts in modern history.
Given the potential for such radical economic transformations, Dr. Young concludes his video with a practical recommendation for individuals seeking to safeguard their financial well-being. He strongly suggests considering investment in precious metals, such as gold and silver.
Historically, precious metals have served as a reliable store of value and a hedge against currency devaluation and economic instability. In a climate where fiat currencies are perceived to be under systemic pressure and a major financial reset is discussed, precious metals offer a tangible asset that is independent of any single government or central bank.
This emphasis on tangible assets serves as a call to action for viewers to prepare for potential systemic transitions, offering a conventional strategy in response to what the video posits as unconventional systemic changes.
Dr. Scott Young’s video offers a comprehensive and deeply analytical look at pressing global economic issues, from the challenges of foreign debt and currency depreciation to the intriguing concept of a Quantum Financial System and the potential for a deliberate fiat currency reset.
His insights prompt a crucial re-evaluation of our understanding of global finance and encourage proactive measures to navigate an uncertain future.
"Prepare Yourself For The Ending" | Bill Holter
"Prepare Yourself For The Ending" | Bill Holter
Liberty and Finance: 7-17-2026
Bill Holter returns to Liberty & Finance to explain why he believes the global financial system is facing an inevitable credit crisis and why investors should look beyond short-term gold and silver volatility.
Holter argues that gold and silver are not rising in value, but rather revealing the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies around the world.
"Prepare Yourself For The Ending" | Bill Holter
Liberty and Finance: 7-17-2026
Bill Holter returns to Liberty & Finance to explain why he believes the global financial system is facing an inevitable credit crisis and why investors should look beyond short-term gold and silver volatility.
Holter argues that gold and silver are not rising in value, but rather revealing the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies around the world.
He discusses the dangers hidden within the massive derivatives market, rising government debt, and the fragile foundation of a credit-based economy. Holter also explains why physical precious metals, real assets, and preparation may become increasingly important if confidence in financial institutions begins to break down.
This wide-ranging conversation explores the future of the dollar, central bank gold accumulation, and what investors should understand before the next major financial disruption.
INTERVIEW TIMELINE:
0:00 Intro
1:30 Gold & silver market update
10:40 When will the dollar collapse?
25:30 The Great Taking
31:12 Gold manipulation
33:04 Yen crisis
35:45 Prepare NOW
38:30 Last thoughts
Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Saturday Afternoon 7-18-26
Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps,
EU and Gulf States Reject Iran’s Hormuz Sovereignty Claims as Global Shipping Comes Under Renewed Pressure
International leaders reaffirm freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing opposition to unilateral control over one of the world's most important energy corridors.
Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps,
EU and Gulf States Reject Iran’s Hormuz Sovereignty Claims as Global Shipping Comes Under Renewed Pressure
International leaders reaffirm freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing opposition to unilateral control over one of the world's most important energy corridors.
Overview
The European Union and Gulf states issued a joint declaration rejecting Iran's claims of exclusive sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
The statement opposes transit permits, passage fees, and any unilateral restrictions on international shipping through the strategic waterway.
The coordinated response reinforces global support for freedom of navigation as military tensions continue to threaten energy markets and global trade.
Key Developments
1. International Coalition Rejects Iran's Maritime Claims
The European Union and Gulf states jointly rejected any claim of exclusive sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming that the waterway remains an international shipping route governed by the principle of freedom of navigation. Their coordinated stance opposes any attempt to impose transit permits or passage fees on commercial vessels.
2. Global Support for Open Shipping Lanes
The joint declaration aligns with the longstanding position of the United Nations and major maritime powers, which maintain that the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway. The statement comes amid heightened tensions following Iran's selective restrictions on vessels from countries it considers hostile.
3. Markets Continue Monitoring Energy and Shipping Risks
Although expectations remain low that the United States will impose transit fees, global markets continue watching shipping traffic, diplomatic negotiations, and military developments throughout the Gulf. Any disruption to commercial shipping through Hormuz could quickly affect oil prices, insurance costs, and worldwide supply chains.
Why It Matters
The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas, making it one of the most strategically important maritime chokepoints on Earth. International opposition to unilateral control helps preserve confidence in global shipping while reducing the immediate risk of additional barriers to international commerce.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
For foreign currency holders, developments in the Strait of Hormuz can influence inflation, energy prices, interest-rate expectations, and currency markets worldwide. Continued geopolitical uncertainty encourages many nations to strengthen energy security, diversify trade relationships, and explore alternative payment systems as part of the broader evolution of the global financial system.
Implications for the Global Reset
Pillar 2: Trade
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most vital trade corridors. Protecting freedom of navigation helps maintain the uninterrupted movement of energy supplies and international commerce.
Pillar 3: Assets
Oil prices, commodity markets, currencies, and other safe-haven assets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments affecting Gulf energy exports.
Pillar 5: Energy
The dispute highlights how energy security continues to shape geopolitical decisions, global supply chains, and long-term economic stability.
Future Outlook
Global Markets Will Closely Watch Iran's Next Move
Attention will now focus on Iran's response to the joint declaration, along with shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and any additional diplomatic or military developments in the Gulf. Investors will also monitor whether ongoing diplomatic efforts help stabilize maritime trade or whether renewed tensions lead to higher energy costs, increased shipping risks, and continued volatility across global markets.
This is not simply about oil—it reflects the broader transformation of the global financial system as energy security, trade flows, and geopolitical power increasingly shape the future of the world economy.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
Crypto Briefing — "EU, Gulf States Reject Iran's Sovereignty Claims Over Strait of Hormuz"
Reuters — Coverage of Strait of Hormuz shipping, maritime security, and Gulf diplomacy
~~~~~~~~~~
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Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Saturday Afternoon 7-18-26
Minister Of Finance: The Praise Of The International Monetary Fund For Economic Reforms Reflects International Confidence In Iraq
Money and business Economy News – Baghdad Finance Minister Faleh Sari said that the meeting between the government delegation, headed by Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, with the head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, in Washington, D.C., represents an important milestone in strengthening the partnership between Iraq and the International Monetary Fund, and supporting the path of economic and financial reforms implemented by the government.
Minister Of Finance: The Praise Of The International Monetary Fund For Economic Reforms Reflects International Confidence In Iraq
Money and business Economy News – Baghdad Finance Minister Faleh Sari said that the meeting between the government delegation, headed by Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, with the head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, in Washington, D.C., represents an important milestone in strengthening the partnership between Iraq and the International Monetary Fund, and supporting the path of economic and financial reforms implemented by the government.
The minister pointed out that the praise of the head of the Fund for the reform measures adopted by the Iraqi government, especially in the areas of financial reform, combating corruption, and diversifying sources of income, reflect the growing international confidence in the Iraqi economy and the steps taken by the government to build a more diversified and sustainable economy.
He added that the Ministry of Finance is continuing to implement its reform programs, in coordination with national authorities and international partners, in order to enhance financial stability, raise the efficiency of public financial management, support the investment environment, and enable the private sector to play a greater role in achieving sustainable economic development https://www.economy-news.net/content.php?id=71529
Iraq Is Ready To Export Rebar
Money and business Economy News – Baghdad The Ministry of Industry and Minerals announced on Saturday its readiness to equip the public and private sectors with rebar, while noting that the production of rebar conforms to international specifications confirmed its readiness for export.
The Director General of the General Company for Iron and Steel, one of the formations of the Ministry of Industry and Minerals, Abbas Mohammed Sayhud al-Asadi, said that "the company is ready to equip government departments, private sector companies and citizens with its products of rebar conforming to international specifications," stressing "the company's readiness also to export rebar outside Iraq."
He added that "the company has accumulated production capacities and expertise that qualifies it to meet the needs of the local market of rebar in various measurements, starting from (8 mm) to (32 mm), according to the customer's request, while adhering to the approved international specifications."
Al-Asadi added that "the company is ready to equip state institutions, the private sector and citizens, as well as its readiness to export its products to foreign markets, based on the distinguished reputation enjoyed by its products and high quality, which it has gained over more than four decades of production," pointing out that "the company enjoys a strategic location in the province of Basra near the ports of Iraq in Khor Al-Zubair, and is one of the oldest iron and steel companies in Iraq and the region, as it was established in 1978. "
He explained that "the company's factories have witnessed comprehensive modernization operations using technologies and equipment from global origins, in line with the recent developments in the iron and steel industry, while its design capacity is more than (500) thousand tons per year," stressing that "the company is continuing to implement its development plans through the establishment of modern production lines during the next phase, which contributes to increasing production capacity and enhancing the company's ability to meet local demand and expand in foreign markets."
He pointed out that "the company includes specialized engineering and technical cadres with high expertise and competencies, which contributed to maintaining the quality of the national product and enhancing its position in the market, while continuing to work on the development of performance and production in accordance with the latest industrial standards
https://www.economy-news.net/content.php?id=71522
Sponsored By Zaidi. Signing 48 Agreements, Memorandum Of Understanding And Economic Cooperation Between Iraq And The United States
Money and business Economy News — Baghdad Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi, on Friday evening, the signing of 48 agreements and memorandums of understanding and economic cooperation between Iraq and the states.
A statement by the Prime Minister's Information Office said that "the Prime Minister sponsored the signing of (48) agreements, memorandum of understanding, cooperation and declaration of partnership between the various public and private sectors in Iraq and the United States of America, which establishes a clear path of economic and financial cooperation between the two countries, and moves the relationship to an advanced level of exchange that is in the interest of both parties."
The statement added that "the agreements and memorandums of understanding included cooperation and partnership between the ministries of oil and electricity and their companies and other government sectors, and each of Aixon Mobil, KBR, GE Vernova, Shell, and Halliburton, as well as a cooperation agreement and the introduction of service between Starlink and the Media and Communications Authority, and an agreement to cooperate with Halliburton."
He added that "the agreements signed between the two sides, also included a memorandum of understanding between Kisslite Technology and the Iraqi private sector, as well as PepsiCo, and a number of companies with regard to the extension of oil pipelines to Baniyas on the Mediterranean Sea, agreements for partnership in the field of education, and agreements between the private sector in the field of supply and manufacture of medicines."
He pointed out that the agreements included memorandums of understanding with KBR, UOP, Polaris, the Association of Energy Engineers (AEE), the leading electronic network company PPTA, two agreements with Freto Lai to develop the agricultural sector, and partnership with companies specialized in the agricultural, commercial and industrial fields
https://www.economy-news.net/content.php?id=71518
Media Authority: Iraq Has Achieved The Highest Material Return From Its Agreement With Starlink In The Region
Money and business Economy News - Follow-up The head of the executive body of the Media and Communications Authority, Bligh Abu Kall, confirmed today that Starlink has officially started its work in the Iraqi market, while pointing out that users of old devices that were previously working illegally are not held accountable.
Abu Kall said that "Starlink is as of today an official company operating in the Iraqi market, and will start the procedures for the sale of devices and the mechanism of activation of the system in full."
He added that "the old devices that were previously operating illegally will be transferred to the Iraqi system, and there will be no accountability against its users," noting that "this step represents an important development in the organization of the service inside Iraq."
He pointed out that "the Information and Communications Commission was keen to establish controls to ensure the maintenance of Iraqi security and sovereignty, both at the technical and security level, in addition to the preparation of a regulation commensurate with the specificity of Iraq and ensure its rights in various sectors."
Abu Kalal explained that "Iraq will achieve the highest material return from Starlink at the level of the region, and perhaps globally, which reflects the nature of the agreement with the company and guarantees the rights of the Iraqi state
https://www.economy-news.net/content.php?id=71536
Samawa Railways Rehabilitate 10 Giant Tanks To Strengthen National Transport Fleet
Money and business Economy News – Baghdad In the Middle Euphrates (Samawa) region of the rehabilitation of a new batch of basin vehicles dedicated to the transport of oil derivatives, stressing that this step represents a technical victory that contributes to enhancing transport capabilities and supporting the national energy sector
The general manager of the company, Dr. Makki Jaber, said in a statement received by "Zagora News" that "the loyal staff in Samawah was able to restore life to more than 10 basin vehicles of the type (FZB) that had been systematically sabotaged by terrorist groups after 2014," noting that "work continued even on holidays to ensure the speed of completion and provide the fleet with new units ready to work immediately."
The most prominent details of the artistic achievement in the Middle Euphrates Railway:
Rehabilitation: Maintenance and repair of more than 10 FZB-type pelvic vehicles were completely out of service.
Technical Specifications: The work included maintenance of structures, wheels, and advanced safety systems according to the approved technical standards.
Economic support: The vehicles are fully ready to travel towards oil refineries, which contributes to increasing the transport capacity of derivatives.
The Challenge of Terrorism: Successful transformation of destroyed and subversive units into productive assets that support vital sectors in the country.
Jaber stressed that "these works come to enhance the company's capabilities and rely on national expertise in maintenance and reconstruction," stressing that "the railways are continuing in its comprehensive plan to modernize its entire fleet to ensure the provision of solid transport services that contribute to the advancement of economic development
MilitiaMan & Crew- IRAQ DINAR UPDATE-Iraq - Washington Visit - Delivers the Goods! IMF-In town!
MilitiaMan & Crew- IRAQ DINAR UPDATE-Iraq - Washington Visit - Delivers the Goods! IMF-In town!
7-18-2026
The Crew: Samson, PompeyPeter, Petra, Daytrader, Sunkissed, GIGI and Militia Man
No drama. No intrigue. No songs and dances. Just straight, factual news that I read and interpret to the best of my ability after being an avid Dinar investor and insanely obsessed Dinarian for over 15 years.
Follow MM on X == https://x.com/Slashn
MilitiaMan & Crew- IRAQ DINAR UPDATE-Iraq - Washington Visit - Delivers the Goods! IMF-In town!
7-18-2026
The Crew: Samson, PompeyPeter, Petra, Daytrader, Sunkissed, GIGI and Militia Man
No drama. No intrigue. No songs and dances. Just straight, factual news that I read and interpret to the best of my ability after being an avid Dinar investor and insanely obsessed Dinarian for over 15 years.
Follow MM on X == https://x.com/Slashn
Be sure to listen to full video for all the news……..
Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Saturday Morning 7-18-26
US Clears Seven Iraqi Banks For Dollar Transactions
026-07-18 06:06 Shafaq News- Washington/ Baghdad Seven Iraqi banks have been cleared to resume correspondent banking relationships in foreign currencies, after meeting compliance and governance requirements, which Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi on Saturday hailed as “an important step” in Iraq’s banking reform program.
US Clears Seven Iraqi Banks For Dollar Transactions
026-07-18 06:06 Shafaq News- Washington/ Baghdad Seven Iraqi banks have been cleared to resume correspondent banking relationships in foreign currencies, after meeting compliance and governance requirements, which Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi on Saturday hailed as “an important step” in Iraq’s banking reform program.
Al-Zaidi said the agreement between the Central Bank of Iraq and the US Treasury Department would “strengthen confidence” in Iraqi lenders, attract investment, and support economic growth.
Read more: Iraq-US investment deals depend on implementation
The step will renew US dollar transactions after US authorities had restricted Iraqi lenders for years over compliance concerns. According to the Eco Iraq economic observatory, 35 of Iraq’s 72 operating banks had lost access to US dollar transactions by August 2025. The affected institutions included Al-Janoob Islamic Bank, one of the country’s largest private lenders, previously chaired by Al-Zaidi before becoming prime minister.
Read more: Sovereignty strain: US sanctions trigger Iraq's liquidity nightmare
Dollar Edges Up In Baghdad And Erbil
2026-07-18 04:12 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil The US dollar opened Saturday’s trading higher in Iraq, hovering around 153,000 dinars per 100 dollars.
According to Shafaq News market survey, the dollar traded in Baghdad’s Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya exchanges at 153,250 dinars per 100 dollars, up from the previous session’s 153,000 dinars.
In the Iraqi capital, exchange shops sold the dollar at 153,750 dinars and bought it at 152,750 dinars, while in Erbil, selling prices stood at 153,250 dinars and buying prices at 153,150 dinars.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Dollar-edges-up-in-Baghdad-and-Erbil
Gold Steadies In Baghdad And Erbil Markets
2026-07-18 05:08 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil On Saturday, gold prices hovered around 860,000 IQD per mithqal in Baghdad and Erbil markets, according to a survey by Shafaq News Agency.
Gold prices on Baghdad's Al-Nahr Street recorded a selling price of 862,000 IQD per mithqal (equivalent to five grams) for 21-carat gold, including Gulf, Turkish, and European varieties, with a buying price of 858,000 IQD, unchanged from Thursday.
The selling price for 21-carat Iraqi gold stood at 832,000 IQD, while the buying price reached 828,000 IQD.
In jewelry stores, the selling price per mithqal of 21-carat Gulf gold ranged between 860,000 and 870,000 IQD, while Iraqi gold sold for between 830,000 and 840,000 IQD.
In Erbil, 22-carat gold was sold at 915,000 IQD per mithqal, 21-carat gold at 874,000 IQD, and 18-carat gold at 749,000 IQD.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-steadies-in-Baghdad-and-Erbil-markets
Basrah Crudes Jump 10%+ For The Week
2026-07-18 02:44 Shafaq News- Basrah Iraq’s Basrah crude prices rose more than 12% over the past week, outperforming several major global oil benchmarks.
Basrah Heavy crude fell by $1.94 in its latest trading session to $54.89 per barrel, a daily decline of 3.41%, but recorded weekly gains of $6.62, or 12.06%. Basrah Medium crude also dropped by $1.94 to settle at $57.19 per barrel, down 2.78% on the day, while posting weekly gains of $7.42, or 12.84%.
Brent crude futures settled at $87.68 per barrel, gaining $3.45, or 4.10%. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $82.10 per barrel, up $3.99, or 3.15%, compared with the previous week. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Basrah-crudes-jump-10-for-the-week
Iraq Approves Starlink For Satellite Internet Services
2026-07-17 18:59 Shafaq News- Washington Iraq has officially granted Starlink a license to provide satellite internet services, as Baghdad seeks to expand connectivity options and improve access to high-speed internet, the Communications and Media Commission (CMC) reported on Friday.
The agreement was signed at the US Chamber of Commerce in Washington during a ceremony attended by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi and CMC Executive Chairman Baligh Abu Kalal.
According to the CMC, Starlink's entry into Iraq is expected to give consumers and businesses more choices for internet access, particularly in remote areas where infrastructure remains limited. The service could also support investment and advance the country's broader digital transformation efforts.
Operated by SpaceX, Starlink delivers internet service through a network of low Earth orbit satellites, extending connectivity to areas where traditional broadband infrastructure is limited or unavailable.
Earlier today, Shafaq News learned that Iraq will sign 48 agreements and memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with the US government, international companies, and global institutions, with energy, infrastructure, and technology projects accounting for the largest share of the package.
Al-Zaidi praised the expanding economic ties with the United States, describing the recently signed arrangements as a sign of growing confidence between Baghdad and Washington.
Read more: Al-Zaidi's Washington visit links US oil investment to September disarmament deadline
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-approves-Starlink-for-satellite-internet-services
Full List: Firms, Details Of PM Al-Zaidi’s US Deals
2026-07-17 16:53 Shafaq News- Washington Iraq will sign 48 agreements and memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with the US government, international companies and global institutions, with energy, infrastructure and technology projects accounting for the largest share of the package, Shafaq News learned on Friday.
According to an official list, major global energy companies account for a significant portion of the planned arrangements, including Chevron, Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips, Halliburton, Excelerate Energy, HKN Energy and GE Vernova, alongside Iraq’s KAR Group.
The package also features technology and telecommunications partnerships with companies such as Starlink and Cisco, financial cooperation with JPMorgan, and healthcare initiatives involving Abbott and Thermo Fisher Scientific.
Other planned projects cover education, institutional accreditation, real estate development, food industries and investment ventures involving US and international companies.
The list includes an agreement between the Iraqi and Syrian governments, a memorandum of understanding with the American University of Iraq-Baghdad and PepsiCo, as well as cooperation frameworks with firms specializing in engineering, infrastructure and energy.
It also outlines a partnership between the US-Iraq Business Council (USIBC) and the Federation of Iraqi Chambers of Commerce.
Earlier today, Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi praised expanding economic ties with the United States, describing the recently signed arrangements as a sign of growing confidence between Baghdad and Washington.
Al-Zaidi, who began his first official foreign visit since taking office on July 13, has held talks with US President Donald Trump and senior American officials on security cooperation, investment, energy and economic partnerships. The discussions also covered the future of the US military presence following the conclusion of the Global Coalition’s mission, as well as Iraq’s commitment to placing all weapons under state control by the end of September.
Read more: Iraq-US investment deals depend on implementation
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Full-list-Firms-details-of-PM-Al-Zaidi-s-US-deals
Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Saturday Morning 7-18-26
Good Morning Dinar Recaps,
Federal Reserve Accelerates Stablecoin Rules as Digital Dollar Framework Takes Shape
Federal regulators are moving quickly to finalize the next phase of America's digital finance framework, reinforcing the growing role of regulated stablecoins in the future global financial system.
Good Morning Dinar Recaps,
Federal Reserve Accelerates Stablecoin Rules as Digital Dollar Framework Takes Shape
Federal regulators are moving quickly to finalize the next phase of America's digital finance framework, reinforcing the growing role of regulated stablecoins in the future global financial system.
Overview
• The Federal Reserve is working to release proposed stablecoin regulations, meeting the deadline established under the GENIUS Act.
• The rules are expected to strengthen the legal framework for payment stablecoins, supporting faster digital payments while protecting consumers and financial stability.
• The move signals continued modernization of the U.S. financial system as governments worldwide compete to shape the future of digital money.
Key Developments
1. Federal Reserve Nears Stablecoin Rule Release
Federal Reserve officials confirmed they are working to publish proposed regulations governing payment stablecoins. The rules are expected to establish standards for reserves, issuer oversight, consumer protections, and operational requirements before becoming final.
2. Digital Dollar Infrastructure Continues Expanding
Rather than creating a central bank digital currency, policymakers are focusing on regulated private-sector stablecoins backed by U.S. dollars and high-quality reserve assets. Supporters believe this approach preserves dollar leadership while encouraging financial innovation.
3. Cross-Border Payments Could Become Faster
Stablecoins continue gaining attention because they can settle international transactions almost instantly while reducing costs compared to traditional correspondent banking systems. Regulators hope clear rules will encourage broader institutional adoption without increasing systemic risk.
Why It Matters
The United States is moving beyond debating digital assets toward building the regulatory foundation for next-generation financial infrastructure. Stablecoins are increasingly viewed as an important component of modern payment systems that could improve efficiency while reinforcing the U.S. dollar's role in global commerce.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
For foreign currency holders following the Global Financial Reset narrative, this development is another indication that financial modernization continues alongside existing monetary systems. While stablecoin regulation does not indicate an imminent currency revaluation, it does demonstrate that governments are building new payment rails that could eventually support faster international settlement, greater financial transparency, and expanded digital asset integration.
Implications for the Global Reset
Pillar 2: Trade
Modernized payment infrastructure could significantly improve cross-border settlement, reducing transaction costs and increasing efficiency in international commerce.
Pillar 4: Technology
The development of a comprehensive stablecoin framework reflects the continued digitization of global finance, positioning regulated digital dollars as an increasingly important component of future payment systems.
As governments modernize financial infrastructure, digital payments are becoming an increasingly important part of the evolving global monetary landscape. While today's actions focus on regulation rather than replacing existing currencies, they illustrate how financial innovation continues to reshape international commerce and cross-border settlement.
This is not simply about cryptocurrency—it reflects the broader transformation of the global financial system as digital payments, regulated stablecoins, and modern settlement networks increasingly shape the future of world finance.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
Reuters — Federal Reserve racing to release stablecoin rules under GENIUS Act
Reuters — IMF looks forward to engaging with Fed on communications and forward guidance review
~~~~~~~~~~
🌱 A Message to Our Currency Holders🌱
If you’ve been holding foreign currency for many years, you were not foolish.
You were not wrong to believe the global financial system would change.
What failed was not your patience — it was the information you were given.
For years, dates, rumors, and personalities replaced facts, structure, and proof. “This week” predictions created cycles of hope and disappointment that were never based on how currencies actually change.
That is not your failure.
Our mission here is different: • No dates • No rates • No hype • No gurus
Instead, we focus on:
• Verifiable developments • Institutional evidence
• Global financial structure • Where countries actually sit in the process
Currency value changes only come after sovereignty, trade, banking, settlement systems, and fiscal coordination are in place. History and institutions confirm this sequence.
You will see silence. You will see denials. That is not delay — that is discipline.
Protect your identity. Organize your documents. Verify everything.
Never hand your discernment to anyone who cannot show proof.
You deserve truth — not timelines.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News
~~~~~~~~~~
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Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Late Friday Evening 7-17-26
U.S. Energy Secretary: We Are Working with Iraq to Build a Future Based on Investment and Prosperity
Iraqi News Ahency (INA) Friday, July 17, 2026 /Washington - INA – U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday that Iraq has significant opportunities to achieve development and strengthen its strategic partnership with the United States.
Speaking at a business conference hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and attended by an Iraqi News Agency correspondent, Wright said the Iraqi representatives participating in the event "represent the driving force behind investment and partnerships with Iraq, namely the Iraqi government and companies."
U.S. Energy Secretary: We Are Working with Iraq to Build a Future Based on Investment and Prosperity
Iraqi News Ahency (INA) Friday, July 17, 2026 / Washington - INA – U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday that Iraq has significant opportunities to achieve development and strengthen its strategic partnership with the United States.
Speaking at a business conference hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and attended by an Iraqi News Agency correspondent, Wright said the Iraqi representatives participating in the event "represent the driving force behind investment and partnerships with Iraq, namely the Iraqi government and companies."
"There is tremendous potential for progress in Iraq, including increasing oil production, advancing freedom and prosperity, and providing abundant energy for the Iraqi people," he added.
He said the private sector is the key driver of that progress through capital investment, technology transfer, and bringing skilled talent to Iraq to accelerate development and deepen the strategic partnership with the United States.
Wright said Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi had recognized Iraq's need for a partnership with the United States and for creating a business environment that would bring peace and prosperity to the Iraqi people.
"I am delighted to stand here today and witness the signing of agreements and partnerships, along with commitments to major investments in Iraq," he said.
Wright described the day as "a turning point" in the relationship between Iraq and the United States, saying it marked an important moment in ties between "one of the world's oldest, proudest, and most influential nations in shaping the world as we know it today—Iraq—and the United States of America."
He added, "I extend my sincere welcome to Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi, who chose the United States for his first official foreign visit as prime minister. He recognized that Iraq's most important relationship in the coming period will be with the United States."
Wright also expressed his appreciation to Prime Minister Al-Zaidi, praising "his leadership and determination to transform Iraq and achieve stability, peace, and prosperity."
World Bank President To Al-Zidi: We Are Ready To Support Iraq In Preparing A Program Budget
Money and Business Economy News — Baghdad The President of the World Bank Group/WBG, Ajay Banga, affirmed the readiness to support Iraq in preparing its program budget.
The Prime Minister’s office stated in a statement received by (Al-Rabia) that “Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi met in Washington on Wednesday evening, Baghdad time, with the President of the World Bank Group/WBG, Ajay Banga, and his accompanying delegation, which included the President of the International Finance Corporation/IFC, Mr. Mukhtar Diop, and a number of senior World Bank officials.”
During the meeting, Al-Zaydi stressed that “Iraq is witnessing a high level of stability today, which will positively affect the economic and investment situation,” indicating that “the Iraqi economy will achieve clear growth in light of the policies and reforms that the government has begun to implement.”
He pointed out that "the government is paying special attention to reforming the banking sector and preparing a program budget, in order to ensure that resources are directed efficiently towards achieving development and drawing a new economic identity for Iraq, based on diversification, reform and sustainability," stressing "working to increase oil production to meet the requirements of development, in parallel with developing non-oil sectors and enhancing their contribution to the national economy."
He explained that "the government is proceeding with the establishment of the Development Fund, which will finance investment projects in all governorates, and expand the scope of financing available to qualified Iraqi banks, in addition to supporting and empowering the Iraqi private sector to be a key partner in the development process."
For his part, World Bank President Ajay Banga expressed his admiration for "what Iraq has achieved recently in consolidating stability and peace," stressing that "Iraq has good potential and resources capable of bringing about a broad economic transformation, if they are properly invested."
Banga expressed the World Bank's "readiness to provide technical and advisory support to Iraq in the areas of program budgeting and banking sector restructuring."
He also called for "studying the formation of a large Iraqi banking holding company by merging a number of government banks, which would contribute to enhancing the efficiency of the financial sector and supporting the path of economic reform."
https://www.economy-news.net/content.php?id=71442
Prime Minister Receives Representatives Of Jpmorgan In Washington
Iraqi News Ahency (INA) Friday, July 17, 2026 Baghdad - INA - 7/17/2026 Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi received representatives of JPMorgan in Washington.
The Media Office of the Prime Minister said in a statement, received by the Iraqi news agency-INA that “Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi Received representatives of JPMorgan in Washington and agreed on the opening of a Bank Branch in Iraq to Finance Projects Implemented by U.S. Companies.”
Prime Minister Receives CEO of U.S. Excelerate Energy in Washington
Iraqi News Agency (INA) Friday, July 17, 2026 Baghdad - INA - 7/17/2026 Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi received the Chief Executive Officer of Excelerate Energy in Washington.
The Prime Minister's Media Office said in a statement received by the Iraqi News Agency (INA) that “Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi received today, Friday, in Washington, D.C., the Chief Executive Officer of Excelerate Energy. During the meeting, the two sides agreed to launch the implementation of the floating gas terminal project in Khor Al-Zubair.
Prime Minister Receives Starlink CEO in Washington
Iraqi News Agency (INA) Friday, July 17, 2026 Baghdad - INA - The Prime Minister Ali Falih Al-Zaidi met on Friday with the Chief Executive Officer of Starlink in Washington, D.C.
The Prime Minister's Media Office said in a statement, received by the Iraqi news agency –INA that “Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi received today, Friday, at his residence in Washington, D.C., the Chief Executive Officer of Starlink, whose company is preparing to launch operations in Iraq following its licensing by the Communications and Media Commission (CMC)”.
https://ina.iq/en/politics/50504-prime-minister-receives-starlink-ceo-in-washington.html
Prime Minister Meets with CEOs of US Companies HKN, GE Vernova, and Vantive in Washington
Iraqi News Agency (INA) Friday, July 17, 2026 Baghdad - INA - Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi met on Friday with the CEOs of US companies HKN, GE Vernova, and Vantive in Washington, D.C., on the sidelines of the US Chamber of Commerce conference.
The Prime Minister's Media Office stated in a statement received by the Iraqi News Agency (INA) that "Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi met separately with the CEOs of the US companies HKN, GE Vernova, Vantive, Google, and Commerce PLC, on the sidelines of the US Chamber of Commerce conference in Washington."
US Envoy: Iraq Can Anchor Regional Security, Trade Corridor
2026-07-17 / 10:24 Shafaq News- Washington US Presidential Envoy to Iraq Tom Barrack said on Friday that Iraq is leading a new regional security and strategic framework by linking the Gulf, the Levant, Turkiye, and Egypt through economic and infrastructure cooperation.
Speaking at the US-Iraq Business Summit in Washington, Barrack noted that diplomacy, intelligence, and military strategies often follow the private sector, labeling business leaders as the "best diplomats" in advancing energy, electricity, and regional connectivity projects.
"This project will shift dependence away from maritime shipping through the Strait of Hormuz toward overland routes and integrated logistics networks, reducing the strategic importance of the strait within two years.”
He also highlighted the importance of the "Middle Corridor," which stretches from Turkiye and Azerbaijan through Central Asia, saying it could transport vast quantities of natural gas to Europe. He described regional trade integration as "the real alternative" to military conflict.
Barrack criticized previous foreign policies toward the region, saying intervention and efforts to change governments had failed and that the region needs strong leaders with clarity and transparency to achieve prosperity.
He expressed confidence in Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi's leadership and urged American and international businesses to support investment in Iraq, stressing, “such backing could help transform two decades of instability into a lasting security and economic partnership.”
Read more: Iraq-US investment deals depend on implementation
https://shafaq.com/en/Iraq/US-Envoy-Iraq-can-anchor-regional-security-trade-corridor
The Economy is on the Brink of Collapse
The Economy is on the Brink of Collapse
WTFinance: 7-16-2026
While the stock market may hit new highs and GDP figures appear positive, the reality inside the average household often tells a different story.
To navigate this paradox, expert Eric Basmajian recently shared his “four economy framework” on the WTFinance YouTube channel, providing a roadmap for understanding how the modern economy truly functions beyond the surface-level headlines.
The Economy is on the Brink of Collapse
WTFinance: 7-16-2026
While the stock market may hit new highs and GDP figures appear positive, the reality inside the average household often tells a different story.
To navigate this paradox, expert Eric Basmajian recently shared his “four economy framework” on the WTFinance YouTube channel, providing a roadmap for understanding how the modern economy truly functions beyond the surface-level headlines.
Basmajian’s framework categorizes economic indicators into four specific layers: leading, cyclical, aggregate, and lagging variables. By observing how these layers interact over the duration of a business cycle, we gain a clearer picture of reality.
Currently, headline metrics like unemployment figures and GDP growth suggest a robust economy. However, these are often “lagging” indicators. When we pivot our focus to “leading” indicators—such as the housing market—we see significant signs of weakness that suggest the broader business cycle is under mounting pressure.
One of the most structural shifts in the current landscape is the influence of government fiscal policy. Massive budget deficits, primarily driven by entitlement spending, are indirectly propping up corporate profit margins.
When the government injects this capital into the system, it fuels household consumption, which in turn flows back to large corporations. Combined with increased market concentration and monopolistic power, companies are maintaining historic profit margins. These inflated margins act as a cushion, allowing large firms to retain staff and avoid the widespread layoffs that typically characterize the beginning of a recession.
The labor market has become increasingly bifurcated, resulting in what many call a “K-shaped” economic outcome. While the top earners remain resilient with solid balance sheets, lower-income households are increasingly reliant on borrowing to sustain their standard of living.
Despite the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy, the labor market remains “frozen.” We are seeing historically low hiring rates and subdued wage growth, yet the lack of mass layoffs keeps the unemployment rate artificially low. This stagnation creates an environment where people aren’t necessarily prospering, but they aren’t losing their jobs in large numbers either.
The modern economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of global uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions and shifting trade tariffs. Basmajian notes that while these shocks impact short-term market sentiment, they rarely derail the business cycle unless they severely compress corporate profit margins.
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve faces the delicate task of steering inflation toward their target without triggering a full-scale recession. The expectation is that we will remain in a range-bound interest rate environment, with little movement in terms of aggressive hikes or cuts in the near term.
The most important takeaway from this analysis is that the stock market is not the economy. Relying on stock prices as a proxy for financial health is a dangerous game that ignores the sequential dynamics of the business cycle.
By paying closer attention to the interplay between monetary policy, corporate margins, and fiscal support, we can better understand the forces shaping our financial future.