Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Saturday Morning 4-11-26

Good Morning Dinar Recaps,

Global Growth Warning: Energy Shock Threatens Monetary Stability

Rising energy disruption and slowing growth are forcing central banks into a narrowing policy path with global consequences

OVERVIEW (KEY POINTS)

A fresh wave of warnings from global institutions highlights how energy-driven shocks are now directly impacting global growth and monetary stability. The recent Middle East conflict has already disrupted oil and gas flows, creating ripple effects across inflation, trade, and financial markets.

This is unfolding now because energy supply disruptions and geopolitical instability are colliding with an already fragile global economy. Even with ceasefire efforts, the damage to supply chains and infrastructure is expected to have lasting economic effects.

Key players include the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and central banks worldwide, all of which are signaling increased concern about inflation spikes, slowing growth, and policy constraints.

The broader implication is significant: the global financial system is entering a stress phase where growth slows while inflation risks persist—conditions that historically precede system-level monetary shifts.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. Global Growth Downgrade Signals Emerging Slowdown

Global institutions are revising growth expectations downward due to conflict-driven disruptions.

• Global growth could fall by up to 1 percentage point in a prolonged scenario

• Economic momentum is being replaced by uncertainty and reduced investment confidence

2. Energy Disruptions Driving Inflation Risks

Oil and gas supply interruptions are pushing inflation higher globally.

• Oil prices surged as much as 50% during peak disruption

• Supply chain breakdowns are feeding into broad-based cost increases

3. IMF Signals Rising Demand for Financial Support

The IMF is preparing for increased emergency lending as economies come under stress.

• Expected demand ranges between $20–$50 billion in support

• Indicates rising sovereign stress and liquidity needs

4. Central Banks Face Tightening vs. Growth Dilemma

Policymakers are being forced into a difficult balancing act.

• Premature tightening could trigger deeper economic slowdown

• Delayed action risks inflation becoming entrenched

5. Long-Term Economic “Scarring” Now Expected

Even if conflict subsides, lasting damage is already occurring.

• Infrastructure loss and disrupted trade are expected to permanently impact growth

• Confidence shocks are reducing long-term investment outlook

WHY IT MATTERS

This situation represents a critical convergence of inflation and growth risks, often referred to as stagflationary pressure. That combination weakens traditional economic stability.

Markets are increasingly sensitive to energy-driven volatility, making asset pricing and capital allocation more unpredictable. Bond markets, equities, and commodities are all reacting to policy uncertainty and supply shocks.

For policymakers, the margin for error is shrinking. Central banks must now operate in a constrained environment, where every decision risks unintended consequences.

At the system level, these dynamics contribute to erosion of confidence in traditional monetary frameworks, a key condition seen in past financial transitions.

WHY IT MATTERS TO FOREIGN CURRENCY HOLDERS

• Currency values may become more volatile as growth slows unevenly across regions

• Purchasing power is at risk due to persistent inflation pressures

• Capital flows may shift rapidly toward perceived safe-haven currencies

• Exchange rate stability may weaken, especially in emerging markets

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GLOBAL RESET

• Pillar 1: Debt and Liquidity Stress Acceleration

Rising demand for IMF support signals increasing strain on sovereign balance sheets. As more countries require external funding, the system moves closer to a debt restructuring environment, a core feature of financial resets.

• Pillar 2: Energy-Driven Monetary Realignment

Energy is re-emerging as a dominant force in monetary policy. Central banks are being forced to respond to external supply shocks rather than internal demand cycles, marking a shift toward a more fragmented and reactive global system.

CONCLUSION

The latest developments confirm that the global economy is entering a more fragile and uncertain phase. Growth is slowing, inflation risks remain elevated, and policymakers are facing increasingly complex trade-offs.

This is not a temporary disruption. The combination of energy instability, policy constraints, and rising debt pressure suggests deeper structural stress within the financial system.

As these forces continue to build, the likelihood of systemic adjustments—whether gradual or abrupt—increases significantly.

The global financial system is no longer operating under stable conditions—it is transitioning under pressure.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

SOURCES

• Reuters — "Middle East war to cut growth, deliver cascading impact, World Bank chief says"

• Reuters — "IMF's Georgieva expects war to trigger demand for up to $50 bln in Fund support"

~~~~~~~~~~

🌱A Message to Our Currency Holders🌱

If you’ve been holding foreign currency for many years, you were not foolish.

You were not wrong to believe the global financial system would change.

What failed was not your patience — it was the information you were given.

For years, dates, rumors, and personalities replaced facts, structure, and proof. “This week” predictions created cycles of hope and disappointment that were never based on how currencies actually change.

That is not your failure.

Our mission here is different:   • No dates • No rates • No hype • No gurus

Instead, we focus on:

• Verifiable developments • Institutional evidence

• Global financial structure • Where countries actually sit in the process

Currency value changes only come after sovereignty, trade, banking, settlement systems, and fiscal coordination are in place. History and institutions confirm this sequence.

You will see silence. You will see denials. That is not delay — that is discipline.

Protect your identity. Organize your documents.    Verify everything.

Never hand your discernment to anyone who cannot show proof.

You deserve truth — not timelines.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ 

~~~~~~~~~~

Seeds of Wisdom Team RV Currency Facts Youtube and Rumble

Newshound's News Telegram Room Link

RV Facts with Proof Links Link

RV Updates Proof links - Facts Link

Follow the Gold/Silver Rate COMEX

Follow Fast Facts

Seeds of Wisdom Team™Website

Thank you Dinar Recaps

Iraq Economic News And Points To Ponder Saturday Morning 4-11-26

Huge Losses And A Record Increase In Financial Corruption Cases In The European Union

Money and Business   Economy News - Follow-up   The European Public Prosecutor's Office is witnessing the registration of thousands of investigations into financial crimes and corruption in the countries of the European Union, at a time when total losses exceed 67 billion euros annually as a result of these crimes.

Ruptly quoted European Parliament member Phidias Panayiotou as saying that the European Public Prosecutor's Office opened more than 3,600 active investigations last year, with estimated losses exceeding 67 billion euros, an indicator reflecting the widening scope of financial crimes within the European bloc.

The data related to active cases shows a significant disparity between member states, with Italy topping the list with approximately 991 active cases, with estimated losses reaching 28.71 billion euros, making it the most affected within the ongoing investigations.

Next comes Germany with 361 cases with an estimated value of 5.77 billion euros, followed by France with 121 cases and losses amounting to 5.94 billion euros, and then Belgium with 99 cases with a value of 3.14 billion euros.

The investigations overseen by the European Public Prosecutor's Office focus on tax fraud cases, particularly value-added tax, as well as money laundering cases and the misuse of EU funds allocated to support programs and development projects.

The investigations also include files related to transnational organized financial crimes, in addition to suspicions of corruption in public contracts and government procurement within a number of member states.

The European Public Prosecutor's Office is expected to continue expanding the scope of its investigations in the coming period, while strengthening cooperation between member states to combat complex and intertwined cross-border financial crimes.   https://www.economy-news.net/content.php?id=67721

The Dollar Is Heading For Weekly Losses Ahead Of US-Iranian Talks.

Money and Business   Economy News — Follow-up   The dollar was on track for its biggest weekly loss since January on Friday, while other currencies rose, buoyed by optimism that the Gulf ceasefire would hold and oil shipments would resume.

The direction of the markets is likely to depend on the outcome of the upcoming talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad.

The dollar made gains in March as one of the few safe-haven assets, as the US-Israeli war with Iran caused oil prices to rise sharply and negatively affected stocks and gold, while inflation fears also caused bonds to fall.

But since a fragile ceasefire was agreed upon on Tuesday, the situation has changed and the dollar index has lost 1.3% since the start of the week.

The euro advanced this week to $1.1690.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars appear poised for weekly gains of nearly 3% against the US dollar. The Australian dollar was trading at just over 70 cents, while the New Zealand dollar reached $0.5847.

The British pound rose 1.8% this week to $1.3424.

Even the yen, which is under severe pressure due to low interest rates in Japan, government spending plans, and the country's reliance on imported oil, reached 159.2 against the dollar. https://www.economy-news.net/content.php?id=67703

Dollar Stabilizes In Baghdad, Drops In Erbil

2026-04-11 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil   The US dollar opened Saturday’s trading mixed in Iraq, hovering around 153,000 dinars per 100 dollars.

According to a Shafaq News market survey, the dollar traded in Baghdad's Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya exchanges at 152,900 dinars per 100 dollars, unchanged from the previous session.

In the Iraqi capital, exchange shops sold the dollar at 153,500 dinars and bought it at 152,500 dinars, while in Erbil, selling prices stood at 153,000 dinars and buying prices at 152,850 dinars.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Dollar-stabilizes-in-Baghdad-drops-in-Erbil-5

Gold Prices Rise In Baghdad And Erbil Markets

2026-04-11 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil   On Saturday, gold prices hovered around 1.03 million IQD per mithqal in Baghdad and Erbil markets, continuing their upward trend, according to a survey by Shafaq News Agency.

Gold prices on Baghdad's Al-Nahr Street recorded a selling price of 1,024,000 IQD per mithqal (equivalent to five grams) for 21-carat gold, including Gulf, Turkish, and European varieties, with a buying price of 1,020,000 IQD. The same gold had sold for 1,014,000 IQD on Thursday.

The selling price for 21-carat Iraqi gold stood at 994,000 IQD, with a buying price of 990,000 IQD.

In jewelry stores, the selling price per mithqal of 21-carat Gulf gold ranged between 1,025,000 and 1,035,000 IQD, while Iraqi gold sold for between 995,000 and 1,005,000 IQD.

In Erbil, 22-carat gold was sold at 1,079,000 IQD per mithqal, 21-carat gold at 1,030,000 IQD, and 18-carat gold at 883,000 IQD. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-prices-rise-in-Baghdad-and-Erbil-markets-7-3

Basrah Crudes End Week Higher Despite Global Losses

2026-04-11 Shafaq News- Basrah   Iraq’s Basrah crude advanced more than 6% over the past week, even as global oil markets declined.

Basrah Heavy crude rose by $3.84 in its last session to $114.97 per barrel, recording weekly gains of $6.82, or 6.31%, while Basrah Medium crude climbed by $3.84 to settle at $117.07 per barrel, posting weekly gains of $6.82, or 6.19%.

Brent futures settled lower by 72 cents, or 0.8%, at $95.20 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.30, or 1.3%, to settle at $96.57 a barrel, with a weekly drop of 13.4%.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Basrah-crudes-end-week-higher-despite-global-losses

Iraq Ranks Lowest In Arab Electricity Prices For March 2026

2026-04-11   Shafaq News- Baghdad   Iraq ranked first among Arab countries for the lowest electricity prices in March 2026, with residential tariffs at $0.015 per kilowatt-hour, according to data from GlobalPetrolPrices.

The data showed that Iraq also recorded $0.046 per kilowatt-hour for commercial use, marking the lowest rates in the region.

Egypt ranked second with $0.020 per kilowatt-hour, followed by Qatar at $0.032, Oman at $0.036, and Algeria in fifth place at $0.043 per kilowatt-hour, while Morocco and Jordan recorded the highest electricity prices among Arab countries, at $0.125 and $0.090 per kilowatt-hour, respectively.https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-ranks-lowest-in-Arab-electricity-prices-for-March-2026

Six Oil Tankers Pass Hormuz Ahead Of US-Iran Talks

2026-04-11 Shafaq News- Hurmoz   Six oil tankers, including two Chinese vessels, one Greek ship, and three tankers from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, transited the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, ahead of US-Iran talks in Pakistan, according to maritime data cited by Bloomberg.

Earlier today, Data shared by S&P Global showed that no crude oil was loaded at key ports linked to the Strait, including facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Vessel traffic through the strategic waterway also declined markedly, falling to 12 ships on April 9 from an average of about 135 daily crossings.

The slowdown affected an estimated 14.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and condensates, the data showed, while Iranian crude exports were recorded at about 1.38 million bpd over the same period.

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil supply, was effectively closed after US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. Despite a previously granted exemption allowing Iraqi oil tankers to transit the Strait, Iraq’s oil sector saw a sharp downturn, with production falling from about 3.5 million bpd to around 1.3 million bpd, while exports declined to roughly 800,000 bpd. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Six-oil-tankers-pass-Hormuz-ahead-of-US-Iran-talks

Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Collapses To Near-Zero

2026-04-11 Shafaq News- Baghdad   Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply in April, with the key maritime route remaining largely disrupted amid the joint US-Israeli war on Iran, despite a recently signed two-week truce.

Data shared by S&P Global on Saturday showed that no crude oil was loaded at key ports linked to the Strait, including facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Vessel traffic through the strategic waterway also declined markedly, falling to 12 ships on April 9 from an average of about 135 daily crossings.

The slowdown affected an estimated 14.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and condensates, the data showed, while Iranian crude exports were recorded at about 1.38 million bpd over the same period.

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil supply, was effectively closed after US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. Despite a previously granted exemption allowing Iraqi oil tankers to transit the Strait, Iraq’s oil sector saw a sharp downturn, with production falling from about 3.5 million bpd to around 1.3 million bpd, while exports declined to roughly 800,000 bpd. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Strait-of-Hormuz-traffic-collapses-to-near-zero

MilitiaMan and Crew: IRAQ DINAR UPDATE-Reality Update-Momentum is Built in - The Foundation of Blocs are in Place

MilitiaMan and Crew: IRAQ DINAR UPDATE-Reality Update-Momentum is Built in - The Foundation of Blocs are in Place

4-10-2026

The Crew:  Samson, PompeyPeter, Petra, Daytrader, Sunkissed, GIGI and Militia Man

No drama. No intrigue. No songs and dances. Just straight, factual news that I read and interpret to the best of my ability after being an avid Dinar investor and insanely obsessed Dinarian for over 15 years.

Follow MM on X == https://x.com/Slashn

Be sure to listen to full video for all the news……..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRAkjOZgwx4

Washington is Officially Insolvent as the World Pivots Away from the US

Washington is Officially Insolvent as the World Pivots Away from the US

Lena Petrova:  4-10-2026

In the halls of Washington, the narrative often centers on record-breaking growth and a thriving American economy. But if you step away the political talking points, what does the data actually reveal?

In a recent, sobering analysis, renowned economist Dr. Steve Hanke cuts through the noise, offering a critical look at the U.S. economic and geopolitical landscape.

From the reality of the “Trump economy” to the looming threat of national insolvency, Dr. Hanke presents a compelling—and concerning—case that the United States is standing on much shakier ground than the headlines suggest.

President Trump has frequently touted a “golden age” for the American economy, but Dr. Hanke disputes this optimistic frame. According to his analysis, the metrics tell a different story: stagnating GDP growth, tangible job losses, and a concerning decline in productivity.

Dr. Hanke points to interventionism, protectionism, and militarism as the pillars defining our current environment. The widespread use of tariffs, while marketed as a way to “protect” American interests, has instead acted as a drag on economic efficiency. Meanwhile, defense spending has soared to unprecedented levels, diverting massive amounts of capital that could otherwise be utilized for productive domestic investment.

Dr. Hanke shifts his focus to the ongoing conflict in Iran, describing it as a “structural shock” with ripple effects that the West has severely underestimated. Far from being a localized skirmish, the war in Iran is exacerbating global energy shortages, tightening the grip on essential raw materials like sulfur and aluminum.

Perhaps most surprising is the resilience of Iran’s economy. Despite Western portrayals of a nation on the brink, Iran has managed to increase its oil exports and maintain a stable currency. The geopolitical consequences are even more stark: the conflict has served to strengthen the hands of Russia and China, while simultaneously eroding the reputation and global influence of the United States.

Furthermore, Dr. Hanke argues that the influence of the Israeli lobby on U.S. foreign policy has backfired, creating a unified resistance within Iran that has only solidified anti-Western sentiment.

Perhaps the most alarming portion of Dr. Hanke’s analysis—conducted alongside colleague Dave Walker—is the blunt assessment of America’s balance sheet: The U.S. government is effectively insolvent.

The numbers are staggering, with liabilities dwarfing assets by a massive margin. To combat this, Hanke and Walker are championing legislative efforts, including the formation of a fiscal commission and a constitutional amendment aimed at forcing budgetary discipline upon a political system addicted to overspending.

Adding fuel to this fire is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Dr. Hanke warns that recent bouts of quantitative easing are directly contributing to inflation. As the money supply accelerates, the Fed finds itself in an impossible balancing act: attempting to curb inflation without triggering a systemic economic collapse, all while navigating a volatile geopolitical minefield.

Dr. Hanke’s analysis serves as a wake-up call. The disparity between political rhetoric and the underlying economic reality is growing wider by the day. Whether it is the unchecked growth of defense spending, the mismanagement of monetary policy, or the long-term damage to our international standing, the path current policy takes is unsustainable.

As Dr. Hanke warns, without a serious commitment to fiscal reform and a shift toward sober, reality-based policymaking, the U.S. risks a deeper crisis that could reshape its economic and political future for generations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSEei-KhEO8

IMF Announces Real-World Fiat Reset (What Happens Now?)

IMF Announces Real-World Fiat Reset (What Happens Now?)

Coin Bureau:  4-10-2026

The global financial landscape is shifting beneath our feet, and if you haven’t been paying attention, the ground may soon be moving faster than you expect.

For decades, the post-World War II economic order—anchored by the U.S. dollar and the established Western-led financial system—has been the bedrock of global trade. But today, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other global power brokers are signaling a “fundamental reset.” We aren’t just looking at a minor market adjustment; we are witnessing the potential decline of an era.

The dominance of the U.S. dollar has long been sustained by the “petro-dollar” system, where oil and other global commodities are traded almost exclusively in dollars. However, that foundation is cracking.

As geopolitical tensions rise, nations are seeking autonomy. We’ve seen India bypassing U.S. sanctions to purchase Russian oil outside the dollar, and nations like Iran demanding transit fees in Chinese yuan.

These are not isolated incidents; they are symptomatic of a coordinated effort by the BRICS nations to move away from Western financial infrastructure.

In its place, a new, multipolar currency system is emerging, built on the back of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).

While CBDCs are sold under the guise of efficiency and modernization, they carry significant implications for personal freedom. Unlike traditional cash or even standard digital banking, these currencies are programmable.

 Governments could theoretically dictate how you spend your money, restrict where it can be used geographically, or even set expiration dates on your savings. This level of state surveillance and control represents a seismic shift in the relationship between the individual and the state.

As the global elite push for centralized, programmable digital systems, a massive ideological battle is brewing.

On one side, we have state-backed CBDCs designed for total oversight. On the other, we have decentralized digital assets like Bitcoin.

 The U.S. is positioning itself as an interesting outlier in this scenario, showing resistance toward a retail CBDC while simultaneously exploring the potential of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Even with market volatility and institutional hurdles, the long-term structural argument for decentralized assets has never been more relevant. As governments consolidate control over digital payments, the importance of a neutral, censorship-resistant store of value becomes not just a financial choice, but a defensive necessity.

The “reset” is underway. Are we moving toward a future of government-mandated spending limits, or will decentralized technology provide a path to financial freedom?

For a deeper dive into the mechanics of this shift and the geopolitical moves shaping our future, check out the full analysis from Coin Bureau. The landscape is changing—make sure you understand the stakes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExRJ9oAoKSM

Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Friday Afternoon 4-10-26

Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps

Energy Shock Reversal: Falling Rate Expectations Signal Policy Shift

Cooling oil prices and shifting market expectations are forcing central banks to rethink tightening strategies amid global instability 

OVERVIEW (KEY POINTS)

The recent energy shock tied to geopolitical conflict briefly pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, triggering renewed inflation fears across global markets. However, a rapid cooling in prices following ceasefire developments has abruptly shifted market expectations, particularly around interest rates.

This sudden reversal is happening now because markets are recalibrating in real time to unstable energy flows, fragile supply chains, and policy uncertainty. Investors are no longer confident that central banks can maintain a steady tightening path without triggering broader economic stress.

Key players include major central banks such as the Federal Reserve, global energy producers, and financial markets reacting to bond yields and inflation signals. Their collective response is revealing cracks in the current monetary framework.

The bigger implication is clear: monetary policy is becoming reactive rather than proactive, increasing the likelihood of systemic instability and accelerating conditions often associated with a global financial reset.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. Oil Price Spike Followed by Rapid Cooling

A sharp rise in oil prices above $100 was quickly reversed after geopolitical tensions eased.

• The volatility highlights how sensitive inflation is to energy disruptions

• Markets are reacting more to geopolitical headlines than fundamentals

2. Rate Hike Expectations Collapse

Markets dramatically reduced expectations for further interest rate hikes.

• Probability of additional hikes dropped to near zero (~0.8%)

• Signals a major shift from tightening to potential easing bias

3. Global Bond Yields Begin to Fall

Government bond yields are declining across major economies.

• Indicates rising demand for safe-haven assets

• Reflects expectations of slower growth and policy reversal

4. Central Banks Enter Policy Constraint Zone

Policymakers are increasingly limited in their options.

• Fighting inflation risks economic contraction

• Supporting growth risks reigniting inflation pressures

WHY IT MATTERS

This shift signals a critical turning point in monetary policy. Central banks are no longer driving market direction—markets are forcing central banks to adapt.

For the economy, this raises the risk of slower growth combined with lingering inflation volatility. For markets, it creates uncertainty around asset pricing, bond stability, and liquidity conditions.

From a policy standpoint, the loss of forward guidance credibility could lead to more reactive and less predictable interventions, increasing systemic risk.

At the global level, this dynamic contributes to a gradual erosion of confidence in traditional monetary tools, a key ingredient in broader financial restructuring.

WHY IT MATTERS TO FOREIGN CURRENCY HOLDERS

• Currency volatility is likely to increase as rate expectations shift rapidly

• Purchasing power may fluctuate due to unstable inflation trends

• Capital flows could become more unpredictable, favoring safer currencies

• Exchange rates may decouple from traditional rate differentials, reducing predictability

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GLOBAL RESET

• Pillar 1: Monetary Policy Credibility Erosion

As central banks shift from tightening to hesitation, confidence in their ability to control inflation weakens. This undermines the foundation of fiat systems that rely on policy consistency and forward guidance, increasing the risk of structural change.

• Pillar 2: Market-Driven Financial System Transition

Markets are increasingly dictating outcomes through bond yields, rate expectations, and capital flows. This represents a shift toward a more decentralized financial influence structure, where traditional policy tools carry less authority.

CONCLUSION

The rapid reversal in energy prices and interest rate expectations is more than a short-term market adjustment—it is a signal of deeper systemic strain. Central banks are being pushed into a position where every decision carries heightened risk, with fewer effective tools available.

This environment increases the likelihood of policy missteps and reactive interventions, both of which historically precede major financial shifts. The growing disconnect between market behavior and policy intent is particularly significant.

What is unfolding is not simply volatility—it is a transition phase. The global financial system is showing signs of moving away from centralized control toward a more fragmented and reactive structure.

This is not just a policy shift—it is a structural signal that the foundations of the current financial system are being tested in real time.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

SOURCES

• Reuters — "IMF's Georgieva expects war to trigger demand for up to $50 bln in Fund support"

• MarketWatch — "What the market is now pricing for Fed and global central-bank interest rates after the cease-fire"

~~~~~~~~~~

Seeds of Wisdom Team RV Currency Facts Youtube and Rumble

Newshound's News Telegram Room Link

RV Facts with Proof Links Link

RV Updates Proof links - Facts Link

Follow the Gold/Silver Rate COMEX

Follow Fast Facts

Seeds of Wisdom Team™Website

Thank you Dinar Recaps

Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Friday Morning 4-10-26

Good Morning Dinar Recaps,

Macron Courts Trump with Versailles Invite as G7 Unity Faces Strain

France deploys symbolic diplomacy to secure U.S. engagement amid rising fractures within Western alliances

Overview (Key Points)

• France is actively working to secure U.S. participation in the upcoming G7 Summit

• President Emmanuel Macron has extended a high-profile, exclusive invitation to Donald Trump

• The proposed Versailles dinner highlights a shift toward personalized diplomacy

• Underlying tensions within the G7 threaten cohesion and global coordination

Key Developments

1. Macron Extends Exclusive Versailles Invitation

• A private dinner at Palace of Versailles is being used as a targeted diplomatic gesture

• No other G7 leaders were invited, emphasizing a one-on-one strategic approach

• The move leverages historical symbolism and prestige to encourage attendance

2. Uncertainty Surrounds Trump’s Attendance

• Trump has not confirmed participation in the G7 summit or the Versailles event

• U.S. officials describe the situation as undecided

• A potential absence would:

  • Undermine summit visibility

  • Signal weakening Western coordination

3. G7 Relations Show Signs of Strain

• The U.S. has taken a more confrontational stance toward multilateral institutions

• Ongoing tensions include:

  • Criticism of NATO alliances

  • Disagreements over Middle East conflicts involving Iran

  • Public friction with leaders such as Keir Starmer

These dynamics are testing the unity of traditional Western blocs

4. France Pursues Dual-Layer Diplomacy

• Macron is combining:

  • Formal multilateral engagement (G7 Summit)

  • Personalized bilateral diplomacy (Versailles meeting)

• This reflects a strategy to:

  • Maintain U.S. involvement in global forums

  • Reinforce transatlantic ties despite political friction

5. Political Risks and Optics Intensify

• If Trump attends:

  • Summit visibility increases

  • But internal divisions may deepen

• If Trump declines:

  • It exposes fractures within the G7

• Exclusive treatment at Versailles could raise concerns about:

  • Unequal diplomatic signaling among allies

Why It Matters

The G7 has historically functioned as a pillar of Western economic coordination

• Its effectiveness depends heavily on full participation from major powers

• Increasing reliance on leader-level relationships suggests:

  • Institutions are becoming less stable on their own

  • Diplomacy is shifting toward personal influence over formal structure

This signals a transition from institutional strength to personality-driven geopolitics

Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders

• G7 unity plays a key role in:

  • Global financial stability

  • Currency coordination and policy alignment

• Weakening cohesion may lead to:

  • Diverging economic strategies

  • Increased currency volatility across major economies

Currency holders should monitor:

• U.S.–Europe alignment

• Policy fragmentation within G7 economies

• Shifts in global leadership coordination

Implications for the Global Reset

• Pillar 1: Institutional Weakening

Traditional alliances like the G7 are showing signs of fragmentation

Global governance is becoming less centralized and more fluid

• Pillar 2: Rise of Personalized Diplomacy

Leader relationships are increasingly driving global outcomes

Symbolic gestures and soft power tools are filling gaps left by weakening consensus

This reflects a broader shift toward a multi-polar, less coordinated global system

Closing Insight

The summit itself is no longer the main story

Who shows up—and why—now matters more than what is formally agreed

Seeds of Wisdom Team

Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources

• Modern Diplomacy — “Macron Courts Trump with Versailles Invite Amid Strained G7 Dynamics”

• Reuters (Referenced Reporting on G7 and U.S.–Europe Relations)

~~~~~~~~~~

🌱A Message to Our Currency Holders🌱

If you’ve been holding foreign currency for many years, you were not foolish.

You were not wrong to believe the global financial system would change.

What failed was not your patience — it was the information you were given.

For years, dates, rumors, and personalities replaced facts, structure, and proof. “This week” predictions created cycles of hope and disappointment that were never based on how currencies actually change.

That is not your failure.

Our mission here is different:   • No dates • No rates • No hype • No gurus

Instead, we focus on:

• Verifiable developments • Institutional evidence

• Global financial structure • Where countries actually sit in the process

Currency value changes only come after sovereignty, trade, banking, settlement systems, and fiscal coordination are in place. History and institutions confirm this sequence.

You will see silence. You will see denials. That is not delay — that is discipline.

Protect your identity. Organize your documents.    Verify everything.

Never hand your discernment to anyone who cannot show proof.

You deserve truth — not timelines.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ 

~~~~~~~~~~

Seeds of Wisdom Team RV Currency Facts Youtube and Rumble

Newshound's News Telegram Room Link

RV Facts with Proof Links Link

RV Updates Proof links - Facts Link

Follow the Gold/Silver Rate COMEX

Follow Fast Facts

Seeds of Wisdom Team™Website

Thank you Dinar Recaps

Iraq Economic News And Points To Ponder Friday Morning 4-10-26

The Dollar Is Heading For Weekly Losses Ahead Of US-Iranian Talks

Money and Business Economy News — Follow-up   The dollar was on track for its biggest weekly loss since January on Friday, while other currencies rose, buoyed by optimism that the Gulf ceasefire would hold and oil shipments would resume.  The direction of the markets is likely to depend on the outcome of the upcoming talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad.

The dollar made gains in March as one of the few safe-haven assets, as the US-Israeli war with Iran caused oil prices to rise sharply and negatively affected stocks and gold, while inflation fears also caused bonds to fall.

But since a fragile ceasefire was agreed upon on Tuesday, the situation has changed and the dollar index has lost 1.3% since the start of the week.

The euro advanced this week to $1.1690.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars appear poised for weekly gains of nearly 3% against the US dollar. The Australian dollar was trading at just over 70 cents, while the New Zealand dollar reached $0.5847.

The British pound rose 1.8% this week to $1.3424.

Even the yen, which is under severe pressure due to low interest rates in Japan, government spending plans, and the country's reliance on imported oil, reached 159.2 against the dollar. https://www.economy-news.net/content.php?id=67703

Oil Rises As Hormuz Traffic Stays Below 10%, Saudi Supply Hit

2026-04-10   Shafaq News   Oil prices climbed on Friday, driven by fresh anxiety over supplies from Saudi Arabia and as ‌tanker traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz remained largely frozen.

Prices were still headed for a loss as nerves eased over a fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, while Israel signalled a potential diplomatic opening, saying it was ready to begin direct talks with Lebanon as soon as possible.

Brent crude futures added 58 cents, or 0.60%, to $96.50 a barrel as of 0338 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 49 cents, 0.50%, at $98.36 a barrel.

For this week, both contracts have so far ⁠lost 11%, the biggest weekly decline since June 2025.

Attacks on Saudi energy facilities have cut the kingdom's oil production capacity by around 600,000 barrels per day and throughput on its East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 bpd, Saudi state news agency SPA reported on Thursday, citing an official source at the Ministry of Energy.

Concerns of further oil supply disruptions were heightened after the report, ANZ analysts said in a Friday note.

"The initial wave of relief following President Trump's two-week ceasefire announcement has quickly given way to underlying doubts," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

"All eyes remain firmly on tanker tracker flows through the Strait of Hormuz for any signs of increased activity ahead of peace talks scheduled in Pakistan on Friday," Sycamore said.

Ship traffic through the strait stood at well below 10% of ‌normal volumes ⁠on Thursday despite the ceasefire as Tehran asserted its control by warning ships to keep to its territorial waters while doing so.

Iran and the U.S. agreed on Tuesday to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, but fighting was still taking place following the announcement.

Analysts say Pakistan will try to push for a more durable peace agreement but may lack the leverage needed to compel the reopening of the strategic waterway

Iran wants to charge fees for ships passing through ⁠the strait under a peace deal, a Tehran official told Reuters on April 7. Western leaders and the U.N.'s shipping agency have pushed back on the idea.

The crucial artery for oil and gas flows has been effectively shut down by the conflict, which began on February 28 when the U.S. and ⁠Israel launched air strikes on Iran.

Brent prices could reach $190 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain at the current level, said John Paisie, president of energy consultants Stratas Advisors.

"If Iran allows increasing flows the price of oil will be more moderated, ⁠but still well above pre-war levels."

Some 50 infrastructure assets in the Gulf have been damaged by drone and missile strikes over the nearly six weeks since the conflict started, and around 2.4 million bpd of oil refining capacity have been taken offline, according to JPMorgan.   (Reuters)

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Oil-rises-as-Hormuz-traffic-stays-below-10-Saudi-supply-hit

Gold down 0.1% as US-Iran ceasefire strains

2026-04-10 Shafaq News   Gold dipped on Friday as a firmer dollar and U.S.-Iran ceasefire uncertainty weighed, but the metal stayed on course for a ‌third consecutive weekly climb as investors priced in earlier and deeper U.S. rate cuts, supporting non-yielding bullion.

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,759.54 per ounce by 0316 GMT. The metal, however, has gained 1.8% so far this week.

U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.7% to $4,782.70.

The dollar index (.DXY) strengthened, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.

"There's a lack of clarity about the way ⁠that the ceasefire is evolving in the Middle East and what that means to energy markets... so we're in sort of a little bit of a holding pattern (with gold) going into the final session of the week," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

Spot gold has fallen about 10% since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran erupted on February 28, with elevated energy prices fuelling inflation concerns and the prospect of higher interest rates.

The fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran showed further strain on Friday, as Washington accused Tehran of breaching promises on the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude, however, has slid more ‌than 11% ⁠this week on optimism that the ceasefire could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes.

"If things break down, (gold) could end up back in mid-$4,000's pretty quickly. But if the ceasefire holds and the peace deal starts to look more likely, then we could push through $5,000," Rodda ⁠added.

On the data front, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, advanced 2.8% in the 12 months through February, in line with estimates, and likely rose further in March.

Investors are now looking out for ⁠March's U.S. Consumer Price Index data, due later in the day, for further clues on Fed's monetary policy direction.

Markets are pricing in a 31% chance for a U.S. rate cut of at least 25 ⁠basis points at the Fed's December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, up from 20% in the prior session. FEDWATCH

Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.9% to $75.74 per ounce, platinum lost 2% to $2,061.06, and palladium fell 1.2% to $1,539.43.  (Reuters)   https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-down-0-1-as-US-Iran-ceasefire-strains

Dollar Slides 1.3% In Worst Week Since January

2026-04-   Shafaq News   The dollar headed on Friday for its largest weekly drop since January, as investors sold safe assets on optimism that oil shipping will resume if a ceasefire holds in the Gulf.

The dollar had towered in March as one of the few bastions of ‌safety as the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran sent oil prices rocketing and hit stocks and gold, while inflation worries sank bonds.

But since a shaky ceasefire was agreed on Tuesday those positions are being unwound.

The euro has rallied through its 200-day moving average this week to trade at $1.1694, a break of chart resistance that opens the way to further gains.

The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars are looking at weekly rises of nearly 3% on the dollar, with the Aussie trading just above 70 cents and the kiwi at $0.5847. Sterling has shot up 1.8% this week and above its 200-day moving average ⁠to $1.3424.

Moves in the Asia session were small on Friday. U.S. inflation data is due later in the day, though markets' direction is more is likely to hang on the outcome of weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad.

"People were buying the U.S. dollar when the war was at its most intense moment and now they're selling as the tail risk of a really bad outcome has faded quite a bit," said Jason Wong, senior strategist at BNZ in Wellington.

"Even though it still looks a bit shaky, the ceasefire removing that tail risk is important from a sentiment point of view," he said, though noting that could turn around very quickly if anticipated weekend peace talks don't yield progress.

The yen , under pressure for years from Japan's low rates and more recently from its vulnerability to high oil prices, lifted off lows against the dollar - but not far and was sold against other currencies, suggesting it remains unloved.

The yen eased very ‌slightly to ⁠159.2 per dollar on Friday. The U.S. dollar index was steady and 1.3% lower so far this week.

YUAN RALLIES

In the Strait of Hormuz there was little sign of progress. In the first 24 hours of the ceasefire, just a single oil products tanker and five dry bulk carriers sailed through a passage which before the war accommodated about 140 ships a day.

Iranian officials arrived in Islamabad on Thursday and a U.S. delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, arrives on Friday to discuss what investors hope can be a lasting peace.

"If ⁠there's positive talks, that would be dollar negative. And if we get to Monday and talks went badly and there's still a lack of ships ... things could turn around quickly," said Wong.

South Korea's central bank kept its policy interest rate steady on Friday, as expected, leaving the won at 1,480 to the dollar, having recovered from beyond 1,500.

China's yuan - which ⁠has never really fallen since the war began at the end of February - was set for its biggest weekly rise in 15 months and is trading at its strongest levels since 2023.

Data on Friday showed factory gate prices rising for the first time in three years, a sign that genuine inflation may be beginning to take ⁠hold after a long battle with deflation.

"The CNY has been a surprising winner of the Iran war, despite China's role as the largest oil importer in the world," said ING economist Lynn Song.

"At least a few market participants have mentioned re-evaluating the 'China risk premium' amid rising global uncertainty elsewhere, which has led to China looking more and more like the adult in the room."

(Reuters)   https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/US-Dollar-slides-1-3-in-worst-week-since-January

“Iraq News” Posted by Tishwash at TNT 4-10-2026

TNT:

Tishwash:  4 reasons behind the stability of exchange rates in Iraq

The Prime Minister’s financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed on Thursday that the stability of exchange rates and the decline in inflationary pressures in Iraq are due to four interconnected factors that supported the local market despite the disruption of global supply chains, particularly through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz .

Saleh said, in a statement followed by Al-Sa’a Network, that “the first factor is the availability of high stocks of durable goods, while the second is related to the state’s ability to secure a strategic reserve of food basket items and enhance food security.”

He added that "the third factor is the high level of government support, which includes fuel, food baskets and public services, in addition to the role of cooperative stores in absorbing price pressures."

He pointed out that "the fourth factor lies in the efficiency of foreign reserves in financing private sector trade, with the exchange rate stabilizing at around 1,320 dinars to the dollar, and the high level of banking and commercial compliance, which helped to accelerate foreign transfers and ensure the smooth flow of imports."

He explained that "the combination of these factors contributed to consolidating economic stability and reducing fluctuations in prices and the exchange market, within integrated financial, monetary and trade policies led by the government."  link

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Tishwash:  Financial advisor warns: Lack of budget hinders economic reforms

 The Prime Minister’s financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, announced on Thursday that a proposal had been submitted to avoid delaying the approval of the budget, noting that delaying the approval of the budget would lead to a number of negative effects.

Saleh said in a statement to the official agency, which was followed by "Video News Agency" that "the failure to approve the general budget, whether it is related to the financial schedules for 2025 within the three-year budget law, or the budget for 2026, leaves a number of negative effects."

He explained that "among the most prominent of these effects is the disruption of new investment projects and the slowdown in the implementation of existing projects, as a result of the lack of necessary financial allocations, in addition to the government resorting to the temporary spending rule (1/12 of a previous budget) based on the amended Financial Management Law No. (6) of 2019, which restricts the ability to expand spending or launch new programs."

He added that “this negatively impacts economic growth rates and raises unemployment rates, in addition to weakening investor confidence due to the lack of clarity in financial policies, as well as the delay in implementing economic and administrative reforms,” noting that “to avoid a recurrence of this situation in the future, there is a proposal to adopt multi-year budgets with greater legislative flexibility, which reduces reliance on annual approval, with the need to strengthen the legal framework for financial management to ensure adherence to budget approval timelines, as well as to neutralize political disputes from the budget approval process.”

He explained that "diversifying revenue sources and strengthening the role of regulatory institutions contribute to supporting financial stability and accelerating the process of approving the general budget."

Regarding how to absorb the burdens of the past two years, Saleh stated that "this requires preparing a flexible budget based on rearranging priorities, including previous commitments within the new allocations, improving spending efficiency, as well as the possibility of resorting to well-considered borrowing and strengthening the partnership with the private sector."  link

Tishwash:  Iraq needs deeper economic reforms; unemployment is expected to rise to over 15% by 2025.

Statistics compiled by Statista, a German company specializing in global market and consumer data, showed that the unemployment rate in Iraq recorded a slight increase during the year 2025.

The company stated in its report that the unemployment rate in Iraq rose in 2025 to 15.49%, compared to 15.28% in 2024, reflecting continued pressures in the labor market despite limited improvement.

According to the data, the country's unemployment rate rose by 6.85 percentage points during the period from 1991 to 2025, but this rise was not constant, but rather characterized by clear fluctuations up and down over the years.

She noted that 2016 saw the highest levels of unemployment, with the rate reaching 16.17%, amid economic and security challenges that directly affected job opportunities and economic activity.

She added that these figures show that the labor market in Iraq still faces structural challenges, requiring deeper economic reforms to boost employment and create sustainable job opportunities. link

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Tishwash:  Kurdistan Finance Ministry transfers more than 43 billion dinars of non-oil revenues to the federal treasury

The Ministry of Finance and Economy of the Kurdistan Regional Government announced on Wednesday, April 8, 2026, that it had transferred the non-oil revenue amounts for the month of March to the federal government in Baghdad.

The ministry stated in an official statement that it had deposited an amount of (43,094,141,000) forty-three billion, ninety-four million, one hundred and forty-one thousand Iraqi dinars into the bank account of the Federal Ministry of Finance.

 The statement explained that these sums, which represent the region’s share of non-oil revenues, were delivered “in cash” through the Central Bank of Iraq branch in Erbil.

This step comes as a continuation of the implementation of the provisions of the joint agreements and legal obligations between Erbil and Baghdad, related to the mechanism for delivering local revenues and financial entitlements to strengthen the state’s general treasury. link

Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Thursday Evening 4-9-26

Good Evening Dinar Recaps,

IMF Shock Warning | “No Easy Exit” as Energy Crisis Reshapes Global Economy

Supply shock, rising debt, and slowing growth signal deeper systemic strain

Overview

In the last 24 hours, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) delivered one of its strongest warnings yet: the global economy faces “no painless exit” from the current energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict.

Despite a temporary ceasefire, the IMF emphasizes that supply disruptions, inflation, and economic damage are already embedded, with long-term consequences likely to reshape global financial dynamics.

Key Developments

1. IMF Warns of Prolonged Global Supply Shock

The IMF confirmed the crisis has caused a 13% drop in global oil flows and a 20% decline in LNG supply, creating a major energy shock across markets.

This type of disruption is classified as a “negative supply shock”, meaning it cannot be easily fixed through traditional economic stimulus.

2. “No Painless Exit” from the Crisis

IMF leadership warned there is no easy policy solution, as efforts to stimulate growth could worsen inflation, while tightening policy could slow economies further.

This creates a policy trap for central banks worldwide.

3. Global Growth Downgrades Accelerate

The IMF is now preparing to downgrade global growth forecasts, citing lasting damage to infrastructure, supply chains, and investor confidence.

Even in a best-case scenario, officials say there will be no return to pre-crisis conditions.

4. $20–$50 Billion in Crisis Support Expected

Demand for IMF assistance is projected to surge, with up to $50 billion needed for vulnerable economies, highlighting growing systemic stress across nations.

Why It Matters

This is a clear signal that the global economy is not just facing volatility—it is entering a structural stress phase.

When supply shocks, inflation, and debt converge, the result is often long-term transformation in how financial systems operate.

Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders

• Persistent energy shocks increase inflation across all currencies

• Slowing growth raises risk of currency devaluation and instability

• IMF intervention signals rising sovereign financial stress

• Hard assets and commodities gain renewed strategic importance

Implications for the Global Reset

• Pillar 1: Breakdown of Traditional Policy Tools

The inability to balance inflation and growth highlights limits of current monetary systems, increasing the likelihood of policy innovation or restructuring.

• Pillar 2: Global Financial Dependence Expands

Rising reliance on IMF support signals a shift toward centralized financial backstops, reducing national economic independence.

Analysis

The IMF’s message is clear: this is not a temporary disruption—it is a systemic turning point.

The combination of energy shortages, inflation pressure, and weakening growth creates conditions where traditional economic models begin to lose effectiveness.

Even if geopolitical tensions ease, the economic aftershocks will persist, potentially accelerating trends such as de-dollarization, commodity-backed strategies, and global financial realignment.

This is not just an energy crisis — it’s a structural shift in the global financial system.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources

• “IMF Expects Up to $50 Billion in Support Demand from War Fallout” — Reuters

• “IMF Warns No Painless Exit from Energy Shock” — Axios

~~~~~~~~~~

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Two Weeks to Stop the Spread of War

Two Weeks to Stop the Spread of War

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black/Sovereign Man)  April 8, 2026

On August 15, 1945, after two of their cities had been obliterated by the world's first nuclear weapons, the people of Japan heard the voice of their young Emperor for the first time ever.

Hirohito went on what was a relatively new communications medium at the time—the radio— and gave one of the most bizarre speeches in all of human history, in which he told his subjects that "the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage."

Talk about an understatement.

It's one of the more famous examples in a long list throughout history of speeches that have ended conflicts, where leaders paint whatever picture they want.

Perhaps even more famously, Richard Nixon promised "peace with honor" in Vietnam on the campaign trail in 1968.

It was one of the most brilliant political statements of its era, because everyone heard what they wanted to hear. Those who wanted an end to the war heard "peace." The war hawks heard "honor." Everyone got what they wanted out of it.

But ultimately there was neither peace nor honor. The war dragged on for seven more years, resulting in a humiliating withdrawal from Saigon in April 1975, complete with desperate helicopter evacuations from the US Embassy rooftop.

This is the sort of stuff that peace deals and conflict resolutions are made of— situations where you can talk out of both sides of your mouth, and both sides of the conflict can declare victory.

And if both sides can claim victory, that's actually a good thing. Because the only other way to end a war is to have the other side so utterly demolished that they have no choice but to accept defeat.

The alternative is to give both sides an out.

That's what's happening with Iran.

It's a strange situation from a military and strategic perspective given that Iran has been objectively obliterated; major infrastructure is demolished, key leadership was assassinated, the military is weakened, the government is vulnerable— and yet Iran actually thinks they are winning. Or at least they act like it.

It reminds me of when Charlie Sheen was on a three-day cocaine binge giving live interviews and talking about "winning." That's Iran right now.

The reason is because the American media is so deranged, so pro-Iran and anti-Trump, that they have managed to convince the Iranians that they are much stronger than they actually are.

But at this point the political realities have started surfacing in the US. The administration is worried about high gas prices and the midterms, and there’s a lot of pressure to end the conflict.

Now there’s an arrangement where both sides can declare victory. The US can say they accomplished their objectives — dismantled Iran's military and defense capabilities, degraded their nuclear program, eliminated key leadership, and dismantled their ability to fund and spread terror.

And the Iranians can say they stood up to the ‘evil empire’ and forced the Americans to walk away.

That is essentially what both sides are saying right now. And while the full implications remain to be seen, this is where the proverbial rubber meets the road.

We've been saying since this war started that it could end up being a very big deal for the fate of the United States... so what happens during negotiations over the next few weeks is crucial.

On one hand, there is a possibility they could strike a deal to lift sanctions against Iran and allow Iranian oil to be sold on the global market— as long as it's priced in US dollars.

Between Iran and Venezuela, that could create a massive financial incentive for the whole world to continue to hold US dollars, and thus to buy US government bonds.

But it could just as easily go the other way if the Iranians continue to think they are in a position of strength and that they have the advantage.

One thing we can be pretty sure about is that there probably won't be a resolution in two weeks.

I couldn't help but think of the infamous "two weeks to stop the spread" when COVID first emerged. That was an unrealistic timetable then, and two weeks is an unrealistic timetable now.

International negotiations are extremely difficult, and the tried and true tactic of rogue-nation geopolitics is to let negotiations drag on.

The Soviets perfected this approach. Their strategy was always to exhaust the negotiation partner. Westerners tend to like quick and speedy deals, but rogue nations in general tend to use that impatience to their advantage. So it's hard to believe in the two-week time frame.

But the clock has certainly started, however long it takes. And by the end we should have a very good sense for what this means for America.

The consequences could be massive— for inflation, for the dollar, for bond markets, for the trajectory of the entire US economy.

This could still be a deal that helps prop up the dollar and US government bonds for years, if not decades, to come. But if that doesn't happen, the best-case scenario is probably a stalemate where both sides walk away, flip the switch, turn off the war, almost pretend it never happened. And hopefully the world just ignores it and gives America a pass.

Time will tell. But probably not in the next two weeks.

To your freedom,   James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/two-weeks-to-stop-the-spread-of-war-154964/?inf_contact_key=73e2aaa2627e078969bc72431c5e1e4cb35f7cb4f843dbaf82489fd4b96e6293