Iraq Economic News And Points To Ponder Friday Morning 4-10-26
The Dollar Is Heading For Weekly Losses Ahead Of US-Iranian Talks
Money and Business Economy News — Follow-up The dollar was on track for its biggest weekly loss since January on Friday, while other currencies rose, buoyed by optimism that the Gulf ceasefire would hold and oil shipments would resume. The direction of the markets is likely to depend on the outcome of the upcoming talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad.
The dollar made gains in March as one of the few safe-haven assets, as the US-Israeli war with Iran caused oil prices to rise sharply and negatively affected stocks and gold, while inflation fears also caused bonds to fall.
But since a fragile ceasefire was agreed upon on Tuesday, the situation has changed and the dollar index has lost 1.3% since the start of the week.
The euro advanced this week to $1.1690.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars appear poised for weekly gains of nearly 3% against the US dollar. The Australian dollar was trading at just over 70 cents, while the New Zealand dollar reached $0.5847.
The British pound rose 1.8% this week to $1.3424.
Even the yen, which is under severe pressure due to low interest rates in Japan, government spending plans, and the country's reliance on imported oil, reached 159.2 against the dollar. https://www.economy-news.net/content.php?id=67703
Oil Rises As Hormuz Traffic Stays Below 10%, Saudi Supply Hit
2026-04-10 Shafaq News Oil prices climbed on Friday, driven by fresh anxiety over supplies from Saudi Arabia and as tanker traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz remained largely frozen.
Prices were still headed for a loss as nerves eased over a fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, while Israel signalled a potential diplomatic opening, saying it was ready to begin direct talks with Lebanon as soon as possible.
Brent crude futures added 58 cents, or 0.60%, to $96.50 a barrel as of 0338 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 49 cents, 0.50%, at $98.36 a barrel.
For this week, both contracts have so far lost 11%, the biggest weekly decline since June 2025.
Attacks on Saudi energy facilities have cut the kingdom's oil production capacity by around 600,000 barrels per day and throughput on its East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 bpd, Saudi state news agency SPA reported on Thursday, citing an official source at the Ministry of Energy.
Concerns of further oil supply disruptions were heightened after the report, ANZ analysts said in a Friday note.
"The initial wave of relief following President Trump's two-week ceasefire announcement has quickly given way to underlying doubts," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
"All eyes remain firmly on tanker tracker flows through the Strait of Hormuz for any signs of increased activity ahead of peace talks scheduled in Pakistan on Friday," Sycamore said.
Ship traffic through the strait stood at well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday despite the ceasefire as Tehran asserted its control by warning ships to keep to its territorial waters while doing so.
Iran and the U.S. agreed on Tuesday to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, but fighting was still taking place following the announcement.
Analysts say Pakistan will try to push for a more durable peace agreement but may lack the leverage needed to compel the reopening of the strategic waterway
Iran wants to charge fees for ships passing through the strait under a peace deal, a Tehran official told Reuters on April 7. Western leaders and the U.N.'s shipping agency have pushed back on the idea.
The crucial artery for oil and gas flows has been effectively shut down by the conflict, which began on February 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched air strikes on Iran.
Brent prices could reach $190 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain at the current level, said John Paisie, president of energy consultants Stratas Advisors.
"If Iran allows increasing flows the price of oil will be more moderated, but still well above pre-war levels."
Some 50 infrastructure assets in the Gulf have been damaged by drone and missile strikes over the nearly six weeks since the conflict started, and around 2.4 million bpd of oil refining capacity have been taken offline, according to JPMorgan. (Reuters)
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Oil-rises-as-Hormuz-traffic-stays-below-10-Saudi-supply-hit
Gold down 0.1% as US-Iran ceasefire strains
2026-04-10 Shafaq News Gold dipped on Friday as a firmer dollar and U.S.-Iran ceasefire uncertainty weighed, but the metal stayed on course for a third consecutive weekly climb as investors priced in earlier and deeper U.S. rate cuts, supporting non-yielding bullion.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,759.54 per ounce by 0316 GMT. The metal, however, has gained 1.8% so far this week.
U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.7% to $4,782.70.
The dollar index (.DXY) strengthened, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.
"There's a lack of clarity about the way that the ceasefire is evolving in the Middle East and what that means to energy markets... so we're in sort of a little bit of a holding pattern (with gold) going into the final session of the week," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
Spot gold has fallen about 10% since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran erupted on February 28, with elevated energy prices fuelling inflation concerns and the prospect of higher interest rates.
The fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran showed further strain on Friday, as Washington accused Tehran of breaching promises on the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude, however, has slid more than 11% this week on optimism that the ceasefire could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes.
"If things break down, (gold) could end up back in mid-$4,000's pretty quickly. But if the ceasefire holds and the peace deal starts to look more likely, then we could push through $5,000," Rodda added.
On the data front, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, advanced 2.8% in the 12 months through February, in line with estimates, and likely rose further in March.
Investors are now looking out for March's U.S. Consumer Price Index data, due later in the day, for further clues on Fed's monetary policy direction.
Markets are pricing in a 31% chance for a U.S. rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed's December meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, up from 20% in the prior session. FEDWATCH
Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.9% to $75.74 per ounce, platinum lost 2% to $2,061.06, and palladium fell 1.2% to $1,539.43. (Reuters) https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-down-0-1-as-US-Iran-ceasefire-strains
Dollar Slides 1.3% In Worst Week Since January
2026-04- Shafaq News The dollar headed on Friday for its largest weekly drop since January, as investors sold safe assets on optimism that oil shipping will resume if a ceasefire holds in the Gulf.
The dollar had towered in March as one of the few bastions of safety as the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran sent oil prices rocketing and hit stocks and gold, while inflation worries sank bonds.
But since a shaky ceasefire was agreed on Tuesday those positions are being unwound.
The euro has rallied through its 200-day moving average this week to trade at $1.1694, a break of chart resistance that opens the way to further gains.
The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars are looking at weekly rises of nearly 3% on the dollar, with the Aussie trading just above 70 cents and the kiwi at $0.5847. Sterling has shot up 1.8% this week and above its 200-day moving average to $1.3424.
Moves in the Asia session were small on Friday. U.S. inflation data is due later in the day, though markets' direction is more is likely to hang on the outcome of weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad.
"People were buying the U.S. dollar when the war was at its most intense moment and now they're selling as the tail risk of a really bad outcome has faded quite a bit," said Jason Wong, senior strategist at BNZ in Wellington.
"Even though it still looks a bit shaky, the ceasefire removing that tail risk is important from a sentiment point of view," he said, though noting that could turn around very quickly if anticipated weekend peace talks don't yield progress.
The yen , under pressure for years from Japan's low rates and more recently from its vulnerability to high oil prices, lifted off lows against the dollar - but not far and was sold against other currencies, suggesting it remains unloved.
The yen eased very slightly to 159.2 per dollar on Friday. The U.S. dollar index was steady and 1.3% lower so far this week.
YUAN RALLIES
In the Strait of Hormuz there was little sign of progress. In the first 24 hours of the ceasefire, just a single oil products tanker and five dry bulk carriers sailed through a passage which before the war accommodated about 140 ships a day.
Iranian officials arrived in Islamabad on Thursday and a U.S. delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, arrives on Friday to discuss what investors hope can be a lasting peace.
"If there's positive talks, that would be dollar negative. And if we get to Monday and talks went badly and there's still a lack of ships ... things could turn around quickly," said Wong.
South Korea's central bank kept its policy interest rate steady on Friday, as expected, leaving the won at 1,480 to the dollar, having recovered from beyond 1,500.
China's yuan - which has never really fallen since the war began at the end of February - was set for its biggest weekly rise in 15 months and is trading at its strongest levels since 2023.
Data on Friday showed factory gate prices rising for the first time in three years, a sign that genuine inflation may be beginning to take hold after a long battle with deflation.
"The CNY has been a surprising winner of the Iran war, despite China's role as the largest oil importer in the world," said ING economist Lynn Song.
"At least a few market participants have mentioned re-evaluating the 'China risk premium' amid rising global uncertainty elsewhere, which has led to China looking more and more like the adult in the room."
(Reuters) https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/US-Dollar-slides-1-3-in-worst-week-since-January