Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Sunday Afternoon 3-1-26

The Oil Shock Begins: Hormuz Closure Freezes 20% of Global Energy Flows

After U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, tanker traffic through the world’s most critical oil artery grinds to a halt.

February 28, 2026

 Overview (Key Points)

• Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz closed
• Tanker owners halt crude, fuel, and LNG shipments
• Ships cluster near Fujairah as traders pause movement
• 20% of global oil supply disrupted
• Immediate implications for inflation, currencies, and global reset dynamics

A major energy shock is unfolding. Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Tehran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed — triggering a rapid halt in crude oil, fuel, and LNG shipments.

Shipping giants, oil majors, and trading houses are pulling vessels from transit routes as risk calculations change overnight.

This is not just geopolitical escalation — it is a direct hit to the global energy system.

Key Developments

1. Tanker Traffic Freezes

Shipping sources confirm vessels are remaining idle for several days as military risk intensifies.

Satellite imagery shows oil tankers clustering near Fujairah, one of the Gulf’s major energy export hubs.

According to reports:

• Iranian Revolutionary Guards have warned ships via VHF radio not to transit the strait
• 14 LNG carriers have slowed or reversed course
• Traders are pausing new contracts until security clarity emerges

The strait handles roughly 20% of global oil flows and a significant share of LNG exports — particularly from Qatar.

2. Naval Warnings Escalate

The United States Navy reportedly issued navigation safety warnings covering:

• The Persian Gulf
• Gulf of Oman
• North Arabian Sea
• Strait of Hormuz

The United Kingdom Royal Navy stated Iran’s closure order carries no legal standing, but urged vessels to exercise extreme caution.

Meanwhile, Greece’s shipping ministry advised its fleet to avoid affected waters entirely.

3. Energy Markets Brace for Spike

Hormuz is the narrow gateway between the Persian Gulf and global markets. Disruption here impacts:

• Saudi crude exports
• UAE shipments
• Iraqi oil flows
• Qatari LNG exports

Energy traders are pricing in:

• Immediate supply shock risk
• Higher insurance premiums
• Potential rerouting delays
• Inflationary ripple effects

Even a temporary pause could send oil sharply higher.

4. Strategic Leverage Play

Iran has long used Hormuz as a geopolitical pressure valve. Closing it — even symbolically — forces the world’s largest economies to respond.

The move follows escalating tensions after reported strikes on Iranian leadership targets.

Energy infrastructure is now directly entangled with military escalation.

Why It Matters

Hormuz is the artery of the global energy system.

A shutdown:

• Pushes oil and LNG prices upward
• Raises global inflation expectations
• Disrupts supply chains
• Pressures energy-importing economies
• Heightens military confrontation risk

Energy markets are the foundation of financial markets. When oil spikes, everything reprices.

Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders

Energy shocks influence:

• Dollar demand (petrodollar system)
• Emerging market currency stability
• Inflation-driven interest rate shifts
• Central bank policy tightening

If Hormuz remains unstable:

• Oil exporters gain leverage
• Import-dependent nations weaken
• BRICS energy settlement alternatives gain traction
• Safe-haven flows intensify

Currency volatility often follows oil volatility.

When oil stops, the system shakes.

Implications for the Global Reset

• Pillar 1: Energy Weaponization Accelerates Realignment
  Energy chokepoints becoming active battlegrounds force nations to rethink settlement systems and strategic reserves.

• Pillar 2: Inflation Shock Meets De-Dollarization Debate
  If Gulf energy flows are disrupted, alternative trade corridors and non-dollar energy settlements could gain urgency.

This event underscores how fragile the current global financial architecture remains when exposed to kinetic conflict.

“Oil Is Power — And Power Just Shifted.”

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources

• Modern Diplomacy — “The Oil Shock Begins: Traders Flee Hormuz Following US Strikes”

• Reuters — “Tanker traffic slows as tensions escalate in Strait of Hormuz”

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🌱 A Message to Our Currency Holders🌱

If you’ve been holding foreign currency for many years, you were not foolish.
You were not wrong to believe the global financial system would change.

What failed was not your patience — it was the information you were given.

For years, dates, rumors, and personalities replaced facts, structure, and proof. “This week” predictions created cycles of hope and disappointment that were never based on how currencies actually change.

That is not your failure.

Our mission here is different:   • No dates • No rates • No hype • No gurus

Instead, we focus on:
• Verifiable developments • Institutional evidence
• Global financial structure • Where countries actually sit in the process

Currency value changes only come after sovereignty, trade, banking, settlement systems, and fiscal coordination are in place. History and institutions confirm this sequence.

You will see silence. You will see denials. That is not delay — that is discipline.

Protect your identity. Organize your documents.     Verify everything.
Never hand your discernment to anyone who cannot show proof.

You deserve truth — not timelines.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News

~~~~~~~~~~

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Thank you Dinar Recaps

Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Sunday Afternoon 3-1-26

Japanese Shipping Companies Halt Their Vessels' Passage Through The Strait Of Hormuz

Money and Business   Economy News - Follow-up  Japanese shipping companies have halted operations in the Strait of Hormuz after the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran.

A spokesman for Nippon Yusen said the company had instructed its ships to stop transiting the area on Saturday.

A spokesman for Mitsui O.S.K. Lines said, "We are refraining from sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. Our vessels have been instructed to remain in safe waters," adding that the safety of the crew, cargo, and vessels is "the top priority," according to Reuters.

A spokesman for Kawasaki Kisen said that a number of its vessels currently in the Gulf are on standby, adding that unlike other routes, there are no options for diverting shipments.

The spokesman said, "We will not attempt to send ships through the strait or send additional ships to the area until the situation stabilizes."

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's busiest oil chokepoints. Approximately 20% of the world's oil passes through the strait, along with significant quantities of liquefied natural gas. https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=66194

USD/IQD Exchange Rates Increase In Baghdad And Erbil

2026-03-01 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil   The US dollar opened Sunday’s trading higher in Iraq, hovering around 157,000 dinars per 100 dollars.

According to a Shafaq News market survey, the dollar traded in Baghdad's Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya exchanges at 157,000 dinars per 100 dollars, up from Saturday’s156,000 dinars.

In the Iraqi capital, exchange shops sold the dollar at 157,500 dinars and bought it at 156,500 dinars.

In Erbil, selling prices stood at 157,000 dinars per 100 dollars, while buying prices reached 156,500 dinars.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/USD-IQD-exchange-rates-increase-in-Baghdad-and-Erbil

Gold Prices Surge In Baghdad And Erbil Markets

2026-03-01 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil   On Sunday, gold prices jumped sharply in Baghdad and Erbil markets, rising well above 1.155 million IQD per mithqal, according to a survey by Shafaq News Agency.

Gold prices on Baghdad's Al-Nahr Street recorded a selling price of 1.157 million IQD per mithqal (equivalent to five grams) for 21-carat gold, including Gulf, Turkish, and European varieties, with a buying price of 1.153 million IQD, compared with 1.150 million IQD on Saturday.

The selling price for 21-carat Iraqi gold stood at 1.127 million IQD, while the buying price reached 1.123 million IQD.

In jewelry stores, the selling price per mithqal of 21-carat Gulf gold ranged between 1.160 million and 1.170 million IQD, while Iraqi gold sold for between 1.130 million and 1.140 million IQD.

In Erbil, 22-carat gold was sold at 1.230 million IQD per mithqal, 21-carat gold at 1.175 million IQD, and 18-carat gold at 1.007 million IQD.   https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-prices-surge-in-Baghdad-and-Erbil-markets-4

EIA: Iraq’s Oil Exports To US Dip Over The Week

2026-03-01 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Washington  Iraq’s crude oil exports to the United States dropped 211,000 barrels per day (bpd) last week, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed on Sunday.

According to the data, Iraqi shipments averaged 160,000 bpd last week, 56.7% less than the previous week’s average of 371,000 bpd.

Total US crude imports from ten major suppliers fell to 6.101 million bpd, down 101,000 bpd from 6 million bpd the previous week.

Canada remained the top supplier at 4.050 million bpd, followed by Saudi Arabia with 444,000 bpd, Mexico with 414,000 bpd, and Venezuela with 339,000 bpd.

Imports also included Columbia at 240,000 bpd, Nigeria at 163,000 bpd, Libya at 139,000 bpd, Brazil at 115,000 bpd and Ecuador at 36,000 bpd.   https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/EIA-Iraq-s-oil-exports-to-US-dip-over-the-week-4    

Bitcoin Recovers After Sharp Declines, Nearing $68,000

Money and Business  Economy News - Follow-up  The price of Bitcoin rose by more than 2%, significantly reducing the losses it suffered yesterday following the US-Israeli military strikes on Iran.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded positive net investments of $782 million last week, for the first time in six weeks.

Cryptocurrencies linked to gold, such as XAUt and PAXG, also rose to historic highs, exceeding $5,500, as investors sought to hedge against the closure of global markets during the US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

On Saturday, countries in the region, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan, were subjected to Iranian missile attacks, following the Israeli-American attack on Tehran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=66204

Iraq Weighs Risks As Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Global Energy Flows

2026-03-01 Shafaq News- Baghdad   Iraq joined an emergency meeting of the OPEC+ alliance on Sunday as escalating military tensions in the Gulf disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy markets that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption.

The meeting comes amid growing fears that the confrontation involving Iran, the United States, and Israel could trigger wider disruptions to oil supplies, forcing producers to consider raising output to stabilize global markets.

Iraq is participating in the urgent consultations as one of the eight key OPEC+ members responsible for production adjustments, alongside Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.

Delegates are expected to examine a potential production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) or more, significantly above earlier projections of around 137,000 bpd, according to industry reports.

Oil prices have already climbed to around $73 per barrel, their highest level since July, driven by concerns that the conflict could expand across the Middle East and further disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway handles more than 20% of global oil trade, making it one of the most strategically important chokepoints in the world energy system.

Analysts note that the bulk of the spare capacity capable of significantly increasing supply remains concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, potentially limiting the broader impact of production increases by other producers.

OPEC+ had previously raised production quotas by approximately 2.9 million bpd between April and December 2025, before pausing the increases early in 2026 due to weaker seasonal demand.

For Iraq, higher oil prices could translate into increased revenue if exports remain uninterrupted. However, the country remains highly vulnerable to disruptions in Gulf shipping lanes.

The government is closely monitoring developments around the Strait of Hormuz as several international shipping companies suspend operations in the area, raising concerns about supply chain disruptions. Iraq is among the region’s major crude exporters to Asian markets, which import roughly two-thirds of their oil from the Gulf region. Japan relies on the Middle East for about 90% of its oil imports, while roughly half of China’s crude imports originate from the region.

In response to rising risks, several Asian governments and energy firms have begun reassessing supply options and strategic reserves.

Japanese shipping companies have suspended operations near the strait, while India -the world’s second-largest oil importer- said its state-run refineries are evaluating alternative sources of crude, noting that existing reserves could cover roughly 20 days of demand.

South Korea has also convened emergency consultations and indicated it could release oil from strategic reserves if supply disruptions persist, adding that current stockpiles could support domestic demand for several months.

In Baghdad, the Iraqi Oil Ministry convened an emergency meeting today chaired by Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani, bringing together senior officials responsible for export operations to evaluate contingency plans.

A government source told Shafaq News that the meeting focused on ensuring the continuity of Iraqi oil exports to global markets amid the escalating regional conflict.

The discussions were prompted by Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed to commercial shipping following the intensifying military confrontation. Officials reviewed mechanisms to maintain export flows and mitigate potential disruptions should the conflict persist for an extended period.

According to maritime tracking data, more than 150 oil and gas tankers are currently waiting in Gulf waters outside the Strait of Hormuz as tensions escalate. Commercial vessels on both sides of the strait have largely halted movement, with the exception of Iranian and Chinese naval ships operating in the area.

European maritime security mission Aspides reported that vessels in the region had received radio messages warning that navigation through the strait was no longer permitted.

In parallel, several major oil trading firms and shipping companies have suspended shipments through the corridor amid ongoing military strikes and rising insurance risks.

Insurance providers covering war risks have also warned shipowners that policies for vessels transiting the strait may be cancelled or sharply repriced.

According to the Financial Times, insurance premiums could rise by as much as 50%. Dylan Mortimer, head of war-risk hull insurance at brokerage Marsh, said premiums that previously stood at roughly 0.25% of a vessel’s value could climb significantly.

For a tanker valued at $100 million, insurance costs for a single voyage could increase from around $250,000 to $375,000.

Risk consultancy EOS Risk Group also reported that several ships had received warning messages from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard stating the waterway was closed, prompting at least three vessels to abandon plans to transit the strait.

The disruption intensified after Iranian state television reported that an oil tanker attempting to pass through the strait without complying with Iranian warnings had been targeted. According to the broadcaster, the tanker was struck and later reported to be sinking, though independent confirmation has not yet emerged.

Earlier, Iranian military officials announced that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and warned vessels that the route was unsafe amid ongoing military exchanges with the United States and Israel.

Economists warn that a prolonged closure of the strait could deal a severe blow to Iraq’s economy. Iraqi economic expert Nabil Al-Mirsoumi told Shafaq News that roughly 94% of Iraq’s oil exports pass through southern Gulf terminals, meaning any sustained disruption could sharply reduce national revenues.

He estimated that monthly oil income -currently around $7 billion- could drop to less than $1 billion if exports through the Gulf were halted.

Alternative export routes remain limited. Iraq can currently ship only about 210,000 barrels per day via the Turkish port of Ceyhan, in addition to small volumes transported by truck to Jordan.

Such levels would fall far short of covering government spending obligations, including salaries for the country’s vast public sector.

A prolonged export halt could also force Iraq to cut production dramatically, potentially to around one million bpd, which could damage reservoir pressure and reduce long-term production capacity.

The economic impact could extend beyond the oil sector. Lower crude production would reduce associated gas output used to fuel power plants, potentially worsening electricity shortages across the country.

Read more: Iraq braces for financial meltdown amid Hormuz closing threats

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-weighs-risks-as-Hormuz-crisis-disrupts-global-energy-flows

News, Rumors and Opinions Sunday 3-1-2026

Rob Cunningham: When Money Stops Being Debt and Starts Being Truth

2-28-2026

Rob Cunningham | KUWL.show
@KuwlShow

When money stops being debt and starts being truth, everything changes.

Ending fractional-reserve lending means banks can no longer multiply promises out of thin air. Ending Federal Reserve Notes (FRN) means currency must earn trust instead of demand it.

Capital flows toward productivity instead of leverage.

Savings regain meaning.

Transparency replaces opacity.

Settlement becomes instant instead of rented.

Nations compete through integrity, not inflation.

This shift isn’t political.

It’s architectural.

From debt-based control to asset-backed consent.

The global monetary system doesn’t collapse.

It upgrades.

Source(s): https://x.com/KuwlShow/status/2027486471200887228

https://dinarchronicles.com/2026/02/28/rob-cunningham-when-money-stops-being-debt-and-starts-being-truth/

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Courtesy of Dinar Guru:  https://www.dinarguru.com/

Bruce   [via WiserNow] ...what is making this doable now finally?  It is because Iraq, with our help, has sealed their borders...and that means nobody coming in...no foreign currency coming in, no USD currency coming in – no currency going out. Basically, it's a closed system until the exchanges get started like Tuesday or Wednesday, probably. So that's good news. And you know what was said about that. That was the last thing that had to happen before we go...the sealing of Iraq's borders.

Frank26   [Iraq boots-on-the-ground report]  FIREFLY:The television is showing the United States Envoy Barack is here for a while but he's meeting with Maliki.  He's meeting with the Coordination Framework people but mainly just Maliki.  They're also saying the Coordination Framework still has Maliki as their candidate... FRAMK:  IMO this will be the last time the United States sits and talks with Maliki.  There will be no more  conversations in the future with him after this meeting.  

CBI Makes Announcement about IQD Issue

Edu Matrix:   3-1-2026

The Iraqi dinar has been facing a significant challenge in recent times, with a growing disparity between the official exchange rate set by the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) and the actual market rate observed on the streets.

The CBI attributes the widening gap between the official and market exchange rates to a combination of factors, including political instability, trade disruptions, and a high demand for U.S. dollars within Iraq.

The scarcity of dollars on the street has driven up their price, making the dinar appear weaker in the unofficial market. This phenomenon is largely driven by supply and demand dynamics and market psychology, as fear and uncertainty prompt people to hoard dollars.

With the economy already under strain, the widening gap between the official and market exchange rates could have serious implications for the country’s stability.

https://youtu.be/YA_PiGS4soY

“Tidbits From TNT” Sunday 3-1-2026

TNT:

Tishwash: Iraq’s parliament to hold emergency Sunday session on regional security

 Iraq’s Council of Representatives announced it will hold an evening session Sunday to discuss recent security developments in Iraq and the region, as the country faces escalating tensions following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

The session is scheduled for 9 p.m. and will include discussion of “recent security challenges in Iraq and the region,” along with a vote on members of permanent parliamentary committees. link

Tishwash: Attempts to storm the US embassy in Baghdad and violent clashes in front of the Green Zone

The Iraqi capital, Baghdad, witnessed a dangerous escalation on the ground today, Sunday, March 1, 2026, following the influx of crowds of demonstrators towards the fortified Green Zone, where violent clashes broke out with the security forces tasked with protecting the diplomatic and sovereign headquarters.

Field reports indicate that hundreds of protesters attempted to storm the US embassy compound in Baghdad, expressing their anger over the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran. Security forces are working to prevent the demonstrators from breaching the concrete barriers and reaching the embassy grounds, amidst an unprecedented atmosphere of security tension.

These disturbances in Baghdad coincide with a series of rapidly unfolding events that have swept through the region in recent hours, most notably:

Erbil Airport Targeted: The "Saraya Awliya al-Dam" group claimed responsibility for a suicide drone attack targeting US military bases at Erbil International Airport, in retaliation for what it described as attacks on sovereignty.

Leadership Vacuum in Iran: Tehran officially announced the martyrdom of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a number of military commanders and advisors in the "Epic Wrath" attack, and initiated procedures for the transfer of power under Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution.

Popular and Diplomatic Reactions: The "banner of revenge" was raised above the dome of the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, and demonstrations took place in Nasiriyah, while US President Donald Trump stated that reaching a diplomatic solution was now "easier."

A state of high alert prevails among the Iraqi armed forces and diplomatic missions, awaiting developments in the coming hours amidst calls for de-escalation and others for further escalation on the ground.  link

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Tishwash:  Barak told the Sudanese about Trump's plan: mid-next week, followed by sanctions.

 A source within Al Jazeera's coordination framework revealed on Friday an American warning related to Iraqi political entitlements. The source stated that US envoy Tom Barrack informed the Iraqi Prime Minister that Washington might impose sanctions if Nouri al-Maliki is nominated for a high-ranking political position.

The source indicated that the potential US sanctions on Iraq may be announced in the middle of next week, and will initially target figures loyal to Iran, before later including leaders in the coordination framework.

US President's envoy Tom Barrack made his second visit to Iraq in less than a week. During his first visit, he met with four political leaders, none of whom included Nouri al-Maliki, the prime ministerial candidate nominated by the Coordination Framework.

 In today's visit, Barrack met with al-Maliki, in addition to two separate meetings with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and the head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zaidan. Al-Maliki's office did not mention any sanctions or rejection of al-Maliki's nomination in the statement it distributed to the media after the meeting with Barrack.

Al-Sudani's statement was limited to mentioning a review of views on solving the region's problems and Iraq's pivotal role in building stability and promoting regional development.  link

Tishwash: Trump praises Barack's role: He's doing a good job in Iraq

 On Friday, US President Donald Trump praised the performance of his special envoy, Tom Barrack, in Iraq, coinciding with a series of meetings the US envoy held with a number of officials in the capital, Baghdad, during his second visit in a week.

Trump stated in remarks reported by the media that "Tom Barrack is doing a good job in Iraq."

This praise came after Tom Barrack met on Friday with the outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, to discuss bilateral relations between Iraq and the United States, the general situation and developments in the region, and the importance of sparing Iraq from their repercussions, according to a statement from al-Sudani's office.

This meeting came after the US envoy met with Nouri al-Maliki, head of the State of Law Coalition and the coordinating framework's candidate for the Iraqi premiership.

A statement from al-Maliki’s office said that during the meeting with Tom Barrack, he stressed the importance of “supporting the democratic process and strengthening political stability, emphasizing the need to respect Iraq’s sovereignty and the choices of its people, while the continuation of communication and coordination between the two sides on files of common interest was emphasized.”

The head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Judge Faiq Zaidan, also discussed with US Special Envoy Tom Barrack on Friday the role of the judiciary in supporting efforts to complete the remaining constitutional requirements during the next phase.

This is the second meeting of its kind in a week, amid a major escalation in the region, especially the American threats to strike Iran.

Last Sunday, Barak met in Baghdad with caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, before moving to Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, where he met with Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani, Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani, and Regional Government Prime Minister Masrour Barzani. link

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Mot: Kids Say The Funniest Things — Straight From the Classroom:

TEACHER: Why are you late?

STUDENT: Class started before I got here.

TEACHER: John, why are you doing math on the floor?

JOHN: You told me to do it without using tables!

TEACHER: Glenn, how do you spell ‘crocodile’?

GLENN: K-R-O-K-O-D-I-A-L.

TEACHER: That’s wrong.

GLENN: Maybe, but you asked how I spell it.

(This kid’s got a future in politics.)

TEACHER: Donald, what’s the chemical formula for water?

DONALD: H I J K L M N O.

TEACHER: What?

DONALD: Yesterday you said it’s H to O!

TEACHER: Winnie, name one important thing we have today that we didn’t have 10 years ago.

WINNIE: Me!

TEACHER: Glen, why do you always come to school so dirty?

GLEN: I’m closer to the ground than you are.

TEACHER: Millie, make a sentence starting with ‘I’.

MILLIE: I is...

TEACHER: No, Millie — always say ‘I am’.

MILLIE: Okay. I am the ninth letter of the alphabet!

TEACHER: Why didn’t George Washington’s dad punish him for cutting down the cherry tree?

LOUIS: Because George still had the axe in his hand.

TEACHER: Do you say prayers before eating?

SIMON: Nope, my mom’s a great cook.

TEACHER: Clyde, your essay on ‘My Dog’ is identical to your brother’s! Did you copy?

CLYDE: Nope, same dog.

TEACHER: Harold, what do you call a person who talks when no one’s interested?

HAROLD: A teacher.

And finally, a sign of the times:

Due to current economic conditions, the light at the end of the tunnel has been switched off until further notice.

Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Sunday Morning 3-1-26

Good Morning Dinar Recaps,

Beijing’s Red Line: Can China Defend Iran Without Going to War With America?

China backs Tehran with missiles, cyber shields, and diplomacy — but stops short of direct confrontation.

 Overview (Key Points)

• China condemns U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran
• Beijing accelerates indirect military and cyber support to Tehran
• Arms deals expand — including supersonic anti-ship missiles
• Energy security and Belt & Road investments at risk
• Global power alignment enters a dangerous new phase

Following large-scale U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Beijing has drawn a strategic line: support Iran — but avoid direct war with Washington.

Rather than military intervention, China is moving through arms transfers, cyber integration, UN diplomacy, and energy contingency planning.

This is a geopolitical chess move — not a battlefield deployment.

Key Developments

1. Missile & Air Defense Acceleration

Beijing is reportedly fast-tracking arms cooperation with Tehran, including:

• CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles
• MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems)
• Ballistic missile components
• Loitering munitions (kamikaze drones)
• Air defense and anti-ballistic systems

The CM-302 is designed to penetrate advanced naval defenses — posing risk to U.S. carrier groups operating near the Strait of Hormuz.

China is helping Iran rebuild missile capabilities degraded in previous conflicts.

2. Cyber & Digital Sovereignty Strategy

Beyond weapons, China is fortifying Iran’s digital defenses.

Under provisions tied to China’s 2026–2030 planning cycle, Beijing is:

• Replacing Western software in Iran with closed Chinese systems
• Enhancing AI-driven cybersecurity tools
• Providing cyber defense architecture resistant to CIA/Mossad penetration

This aligns with broader strategic cooperation agreements between China and Iran, aimed at expanding Iran’s “digital sovereignty.”

Technology is now as critical as missiles.

3. UN Veto Power & Diplomatic Shielding

China strongly condemned U.S. and Israeli military actions, calling them violations of sovereignty and the UN Charter.

At the United Nations Security Council, Beijing has historically:

• Opposed additional sanctions on Iran
• Blocked authorization for military escalation
• Called for dialogue over regime change

Diplomatic shielding is Beijing’s first line of defense.

4. Energy & Belt and Road Exposure

China’s stake in Iran is massive:

• Heavy reliance on discounted Iranian oil
• Billions invested under a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement
• Infrastructure, telecom, and port projects
• Iran as a critical corridor in the Belt and Road Initiative

A prolonged war threatens:

• Oil supply stability
• Shipping lanes in the Gulf
• Energy price spikes
• Capital losses in infrastructure

Beijing is balancing support with self-preservation.

Why It Matters

This moment tests China’s superpower posture.

If Beijing:

• Intervenes directly → risk of U.S.–China confrontation
• Does nothing → credibility with allies weakens

Instead, China is choosing asymmetric reinforcement:

Missiles. Cyber. Diplomacy. Energy hedging.

It is defending Iran without firing a shot at America.

“Support Without Soldiers: Beijing’s Strategic Balancing Act.”

Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders

Escalation in the Gulf impacts:

• Oil pricing benchmarks
• Dollar liquidity via the petrodollar system
• Yuan internationalization efforts
• Energy settlement currencies

If China and Iran expand non-dollar energy settlements, this accelerates de-dollarization narratives already circulating within BRICS.

Energy instability reshapes currency stability.

Implications for the Global Reset

• Pillar 1: Multipolar Military Shielding
  China is proving it can protect allies indirectly — reshaping how superpowers project influence without direct warfare.

• Pillar 2: Energy Security Drives Financial Realignment
  If Gulf shipping or Iranian exports are disrupted, China will accelerate alternatives — from yuan oil settlements to strategic reserves.

• Pillar 3: Cyber Sovereignty as Economic Warfare
  Replacing Western systems with closed Chinese infrastructure marks a deeper technological decoupling between blocs.

This is not just about Iran.

It’s about whether China can expand influence without triggering world war.

Energy, Cyber, and Power: The Quiet Front of Global Realignment.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources

• Modern Diplomacy — “Beijing’s Red Line: Can China Defend Iran Without Going to War With America?”

• Reuters — “China condemns US-Israel strikes, urges restraint amid Gulf tensions”

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Shockwave in Tehran: Reports Claim Ayatollah Khamenei Killed in Israeli Strike

Unconfirmed reports of the Iranian Supreme Leader’s death send geopolitical tremors across the Middle East and global financial markets.

Overview (Key Points)

• Reports claim Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike
• U.S. and Israeli officials reportedly believe he is dead
• No formal confirmation yet from Iran, Israel, or the U.S.
• Potential succession crisis inside Iran
• Major geopolitical and market implications globally

A dramatic and unconfirmed development has shaken the Middle East: senior Israeli sources reportedly believe Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, was killed in an Israeli airstrike targeting an underground bunker in Tehran.

If verified, this would mark the most consequential political event in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Key Developments

1. Strike on Underground Compound

Senior Israeli officials were reportedly informed Saturday evening that Khamenei’s body was found beneath rubble after a precision strike on his Tehran compound.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated in a televised address that there were “growing indications” the Iranian leader had been killed, though he stopped short of official confirmation.

Documentation of the body was reportedly presented to Netanyahu.

At this stage, no official confirmation has been issued by Iran, Israel, or the United States.

2. U.S. Reaction

U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media indicating he also believed Khamenei was killed in the strike.

However, Washington has not released independent verification.

The absence of coordinated confirmation underscores the sensitivity and potential explosiveness of the situation.

3. Opposition Response

Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi publicly celebrated the reported death, calling it the effective end of the Islamic Republic and urging Iranians to prepare for mass demonstrations.

His statement framed the moment as a turning point toward regime collapse, though conditions inside Iran remain unclear.

4. A Leader Since 1989

Khamenei ruled Iran since 1989, succeeding Ruhollah Khomeini.

Key background:

• Born in Mashhad in 1939
• Studied in Qom
• Served as Iran’s president from 1981–1989
• Survived a 1981 bombing that paralyzed his right arm

He has been the central authority in Iran’s political, military, and religious structure for nearly four decades.

His death would immediately trigger succession procedures within Iran’s Assembly of Experts — potentially destabilizing the region during an already volatile period.

Why It Matters

If confirmed, this would represent:

• The sudden removal of one of the longest-serving leaders in the world
• A potential power vacuum in Tehran
• Increased risk of retaliatory escalation against Israel
• Heightened volatility in oil markets
• Strategic recalculations across BRICS, NATO, and Gulf states

Iran is a central actor in Middle Eastern geopolitics — influencing energy flows, proxy conflicts, and global shipping routes.

Leadership uncertainty at the top could spark internal factional struggles or external confrontation.

Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders

Iran plays a role in:

• Energy supply chains
• Strait of Hormuz shipping routes
• BRICS geopolitical alignment
• Sanctions and alternative settlement systems

Escalation risks could:

• Drive oil price spikes
• Strengthen safe-haven currencies short term
• Accelerate regional security realignments
• Impact de-dollarization discussions within emerging markets

Any disruption to Gulf energy corridors immediately affects global inflation expectations and currency markets.

Implications for the Global Reset

• Pillar 1: Geopolitical Shock Risk
  A confirmed leadership decapitation strike could escalate military confrontation between Israel and Iran — with ripple effects through global markets.

• Pillar 2: Power Structure Realignment
  If regime transition occurs, Iran’s role within BRICS and its strategic alignment with China and Russia could shift.

Moments like this alter more than politics — they reshape energy markets, currency flows, and global security doctrine.

Until official confirmation emerges, markets and governments remain in a holding pattern — watching Tehran closely.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources

• The Jerusalem Post — “US, Israel believe Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei killed in strike on underground bunker”
  

• Reuters — “Middle East tensions escalate amid reports of strike on Iranian leadership compound”

~~~~~~~~~~

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Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Late Saturday Evening 2-28-26

Iraq Condemns Iran's Attacks In Babil, Kurdistan, And Gulf States

2026-02-28 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil   Iraq’s Foreign Ministry on Saturday condemned a wave of Iran's regional attacks, after strikes reportedly hit Jurf al-Sakhr in Babil province and Iran launched missiles targeting sites in the Kurdistan Region and several US military bases across the Gulf.

 The ministry said the purpose of the attacks in Iraq is to draw the country into the ongoing regional conflict, a move Baghdad “categorically rejects.” It reiterated Iraq’s support for resolving disputes through negotiations and called for continued diplomatic efforts, including talks related to Iran’s nuclear program.

 The ministry also expressed solidarity with “brotherly Gulf states” affected by the strikes and stressed the need to respect state sovereignty and international law to prevent further escalation.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Iraq
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expresses the Republic of Iraq’s strong condemnation and denunciation of the attacks that targeted various areas, both in central Iraq and in the Kurdistan Region, considering such acts a threat to national security and stability.

The purpose of these aggressive attacks is to drag the Republic of Iraq into the ongoing war in the region—a war we condemn and call for its immediate cessation. Our policy is based on rejecting wars and believing in resolving conflicts through negotiations. Accordingly, we have been among the principal supporters of the negotiations that took place between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America.

From this standpoint, we condemn the ongoing military campaigns against our neighboring country, Iran, while reaffirming our view that any expansion of the war constitutes a threat to all countries in the region and will only prolong and perpetuate the conflict.

We express our solidarity with our brothers, and our firm rejection of the attacks that targeted some sisterly Gulf states. We call for respect for national sovereignty and adherence to international law in order to avoid any further escalation in the region.
The Ministry renews its commitment to diplomatic solutions and constructive dialogue to ensure regional security and stability.

Ministry Of Foreign Affairs Of The Republic Of Iraq
28 February 2026    The Jurfal-Sakhr (also known as Jurf al-Nasr) hosts armed factions aligned with the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The two consecutive attacks killed two fighters and injured six others.

 Separately, Iranian projectiles were reported to have hit the vicinity of Harir Air Base in the Kurdistan Region, as well as areas near Erbil International Airport.

Iranian state media also reported strikes on US military facilities in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain. US officials have not immediately confirmed the extent of the damage or whether there were casualties. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Iraq-condemns-attacks-in-Babil-Kurdistan-and-Gulf-states

Iraqi Factions Target US Military Bases

2026-02-28 Shafaq News- Baghdad   The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) reported on Saturday that it carried out 16 operations using dozens of drones across Iraq and the surrounding region.

 In a statement, the group described the targets as “enemy bases,” indicating that further details would be released later.

 Meanwhile, Saraya Awliya Al Dam, an Iraqi Shiite armed faction aligned with Iran, executed a “precision operation” with three drones targeting a US operations command in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, “in support of the Islamic Republic of Iran and in defense of Iraq’s sovereignty.”

 Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Al Nujaba, and Kataib Sayyed Al Shuhada —all aligned with the IRI and the Iran backed Axis of Resistance— have previously declared their readiness to join Tehran in confronting the United States and Israel.

 Earlier today, witnesses and security sources reported more than ten explosions near Erbil International Airport, which includes a military section used by US led Coalition forces, and at Harir Air Base, another facility hosting US troops.

 The Kurdish Counter Terrorism Service later confirmed that the Global Coalition intercepted and shot down several missiles and drones over Erbil province, without providing details on damage or casualties.

 These developments came hours after coordinated US and Israeli strikes targeted sites inside Iran, described by Washington as actions against “imminent threats.” In retaliation, Tehran, through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), launched missile and drone attacks against Israel and US military bases in several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Media outlets also reported attacks on bases in Saudi Arabia and Iraqi Kurdistan.    https://www.shafaq.com/en/Security/Iraqi-factions-target-US-military-bases

Iraq Intercepts Nine Drones Targeting Military Bases

 2026-02-28 / Shafaq News- Baghdad    Iraq shot down nine drones targeting military sites in Dhi Qar and Basra provinces in southern Iraq, including four over Imam Ali Air Base, the Joint Operations Command said (JOC) on Saturday.

 According to a statement, three were injured in Basra, “as investigations and necessary procedures are ongoing in accordance with established protocols.”

 The JOC did not identify the party responsible for launching the drones.

 Meanwhile, a security source told Shafaq News that US air defenses at Victory Base inside Baghdad International Airport shot down a drone without causing losses.

 Earlier today, Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) reported two strikes targeting one of its positions in Jurf al-Sakhr (also known as Jurf al-Nasr), north of Babil province.  https://www.shafaq.com/en/Security/Iraq-intercepts-nine-drones-targeting-military-bases

The US State Department Told “Lwan News”: Our Operations Inside Iran Are Limited And Coordinated With Israel, And We Are Committed To Supporting Iraq.

America – One News   2/28/2026   The US State Department confirmed in exclusive statements to “Lwan News” that the United States is carrying out specific military operations inside Iran in coordination with Israel, noting that these moves came in response to the escalation of threats related to the Iranian nuclear and missile programs after exhausting diplomatic avenues.

 She stressed that the United States is not seeking to expand the war or enter into a comprehensive regional conflict, and that the priority of its actions is to protect its national security and the security of its allies, with a full commitment to supporting Iraq’s sovereignty and stability, and not to target Iraqi territory or infringe upon bilateral commitments with Baghdad, while continuing close coordination with the Iraqi government to ensure that its security is not affected by developments.

 The US State Department affirmed that the door remains open for a serious diplomatic path, and that the goal of the operations is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and achieve regional stability, noting that the Iranian regime is facing an unprecedented test, and the future of the stage is determined by the choices of the leadership in Tehran and its regional behavior, and that any escalation by factions linked to the Iran axis will have serious consequences.

 She added that her operations target the system responsible for destabilizing the region, not the Iranian people, and that any real change begins with respecting international law and stopping support for armed groups, stressing that the stability and sovereignty of Iraq is a top priority and that she exclusively supports Iraqi state institutions.

 https://1news-iq.net/السوداني-يقود-غرفة-عمليات-دبلوماس/

Government Advisor: Converting The Dollar To Multiple Currencies Enhances The Efficiency Of The Banking System.

Baghdad (INA) – Nassar Al-Hajj –   Advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, affirmed on Friday that the Central Bank's initiative to expand the capacity of banks enhances the flexibility of dollar management and trade finance. He also indicated that converting dollars into multiple currencies strengthens the efficiency of the banking system.

Saleh told the Iraqi News Agency (INA): "The Central Bank's initiative to expand the capacity of private banks to support international trade for their clients represents an advanced degree of flexibility in managing dollar resources derived from oil exports, by allowing their conversion into multiple international currencies and their use in financing foreign trade.

" He pointed out that "this will facilitate import operations, reduce conversion costs and the risks associated with relying on a single currency, and enhance the smooth flow of transactions through global banking channels."

He added that "allowing the issuance of letters of credit in several currencies (such as the euro, the Emirati dirham, the Chinese yuan, the Jordanian dinar, and others) gives private banks greater ability to meet the needs of their clients and expands their correspondent banking network, which will positively impact the efficiency of banking operations and Iraq's deeper integration into the international trade system."

Saleh explained that "this mechanism comes at the same time within a framework of strict institutional compliance that aligns with international standards and regulations in general, and American standards in particular, thus allaying concerns about regulatory conflicts or currency misuse."

 He pointed out that "the process of converting dollars into other currencies, as a precursor to trade finance, is conducted through a transparent financial system subject to rigorous oversight and governance, which reduces the likelihood of suspicious transactions and enhances the credibility of the Iraqi banking system."

He added that "this will deepen mutual trust with international partners, especially the United States, by confirming that financial flows related to Iraq's foreign trade are consistent with international compliance rules and do not conflict with foreign policy or national security considerations of the countries involved, especially in an international environment characterized by escalating geo-economic competition and the use of financial tools in what is known as soft warfare."

https://ina.iq/ar/economie/256085-.html

Sudani Leads Diplomatic “Operations Room” With Arab Leaders To Contain Escalation

Baghdad – One News    2/28/2026   The head of the Reconstruction and Development Bloc, Bahaa Al-Araji, and MP Alia Nassif, revealed in two separate posts on the (X) platform today, Saturday (February 28, 2026), that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani is leading an active diplomatic “operations room” in communication with a number of Arab leaders, with the aim of formulating a unified position to contain the repercussions of the military escalation in the region.

 Al-Araji stressed that Iraqi moves seek to find serious ways to de-escalate tensions and block the path to “escalation efforts” that threaten the security and stability of the region’s peoples, noting Baghdad’s keenness to play a pivotal role in defusing escalating regional crises and promoting stability.  https://1news-iq.net/السوداني-يقود-غرفة-عمليات-دبلوماس/

President Barzani, Syrian FM urge regional cooperation after US-Israel strikes on Iran

2026-02-28 Shafaq News- Erbil    Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani called for stronger regional coordination on Saturday during a phone conversation with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, as hostilities intensified following direct military exchanges between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

 According to a statement from the Kurdish Presidency, the two sides reviewed the latest security developments and assessed their impact on regional stability. They stressed the importance of enhanced cooperation to prevent further escalation.

 The call follows coordinated US and Israeli strikes on sites inside Iran, which Washington described as action against “imminent threats from the Iranian regime.” Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks targeting Israel and US military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Regional media also reported strikes on sites in Saudi Arabia and Iraq’s Kurdistan Region.

 Authorities in the Kurdistan Region, in response, suspended schools and universities until March 4 across all public and private educational institutions, citing safety concerns.

 https://www.shafaq.com/en/Kurdistan/President-Barzani-Syrian-FM-urge-regional-cooperation-after-US-Israel-strikes-on-Iran

Jon Dowling: Weekly RV Report for February 27, 2026

Jon Dowling: Weekly RV Report for February 27, 2026

2-28-2026

The world is on the cusp of significant geopolitical and economic shifts, as highlighted in the latest weekly RV report dated February 27th, 2026.

This comprehensive update brings to the forefront the escalating tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear facilities, the intricacies of sanctions on Iraq, the evolving landscape of digital asset regulation in the U.S., and the impact of Mexico’s silver production crisis on global markets.

As we navigate these complexities, it’s essential for investors and followers of global markets and digital assets to stay informed and vigilant.

The RV report underscores a potentially explosive situation involving Iran’s nuclear facilities, with predictions suggesting an imminent attack by either Saudi Arabia or Israel between February 28th and March 8th.

The underlying tension stems from Iran’s relentless pursuit of nuclear control, a goal that is being vehemently opposed by Israel, the U.S., and other global entities.

The regime’s unwillingness to seek peace, driven by its nuclear ambitions, has heightened the stakes, making a military confrontation increasingly likely. Investors and global citizens alike must be prepared for the far-reaching implications of such a conflict on global markets and geopolitical stability.

The report also delves into the anticipated sanctions on Iraq, sparking speculation about their potential scope. Will these sanctions target individuals loyal to Iran, or will they have a broader impact on the Iraqi economy?

Clarifying misconceptions about Iraq’s currency exchange rates, the report reveals the existence of a “real rate” that is not publicly disclosed, operating within private sectors—a practice not unique to Iraq, as similar mechanisms are at play in the U.S.

This nuanced understanding is crucial for investors looking to navigate the complexities of currency markets amidst geopolitical tensions.

The acceleration of the Clarity Act, a legislative effort aimed at regulating digital assets, is another key focus of the RV report.

With the possibility of the bill being passed before March 1st, investors are advised to exercise caution, particularly concerning the secure storage of digital assets outside centralized systems.

 The Act, while significant, currently appears to favor establishment interests, underscoring the need for vigilance in the digital asset space. Concurrently, heightened U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf signals increased military readiness, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

Mexico, a critical source of U.S. silver imports, is grappling with a production crisis due to cartel disruptions.

With silver imports from Mexico accounting for 50% of U.S. needs, the potential for a significant surge in silver prices is high. This development could have a ripple effect, particularly on currencies backed by silver reserves, such as the Vietnamese dong. Investors are advised to monitor this situation closely, as it could present both risks and opportunities in the commodities market.

The outlook for gold remains bullish, with forecasts by Wells Fargo suggesting prices could reach between $6,100 and $6,300. China’s aggressive accumulation of gold reserves to bolster the yuan’s value amidst global currency realignments further underscores gold’s importance.

As of now, commodity prices reflect growing tensions, with silver rising to $92.80 and gold steadfast above $2,400. These movements are indicative of broader market concerns regarding inflation and geopolitical instability.

As we navigate these uncertain times, the RV report concludes with a powerful message emphasizing the importance of personal integrity, resilience in the face of adversity, and spiritual discernment. In a world marked by rapid change and heightened tensions, these qualities are indispensable for making informed decisions and charting a course through the complexities of global markets and geopolitics.

https://youtu.be/T9h0IQpkBlg

COMEX Silver Scam? CME Goes Dark Before Delivery

COMEX Silver Scam? CME Goes Dark Before Delivery

Taylor Kenny:  2-28-2026

CME outage before first notice day sparks gold market manipulation fears as physical demand surges and East challenges Western price control.

What are the odds that the world’s largest gold and silver derivatives exchange suddenly experiences a “technical outage” right before first notice day?

CHAPTERS:

 00:00 – CME Outage & First Notice Day Shock

 01:45 – Physical Demand vs Paper Contracts

 03:15 – Silver Spike & Market Manipulation?

04:40 – China, India & The East Taking Control

 06:55 – $20,000 Gold Predictions Explained

08:20 – Why Physical Gold & Silver Matter Now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcKk4u4L29I

Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Saturday Afternoon 2-28-26

IQD in the Crossfire: What a Trump-Iran Conflict Could Mean for Iraq's Dinar

27th February 2026 in Iraq Banking & Finance News, Iraq Industry & Trade News, Security

The Iraqi Dinar Caught in the Crossfire: What a Trump-Iran Military Conflict Would Mean for Iraq's Currency

The Middle East is once again on the edge. The United States has assembled its largest concentration of naval and air power in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, two carrier strike groups, dozens of warships, and hundreds of warplanes now positioned within striking distance of Iran.

Negotiations between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian officials in Geneva have reportedly yielded "significant progress", but the ultimate outcome may hinge on whether Iran is prepared to offer concessions significant enough for Trump to call a victory. With diplomacy fragile and military options on the table, one often-overlooked casualty of any escalation would be Iraq's currency, the dinar.

Iraq: The Battlefield Between Two Worlds

To understand what a US-Iran military conflict would do to the Iraqi dinar, you have to first understand Iraq's precarious geopolitical position. The country is simultaneously a close security partner of the United States and an economy deeply enmeshed with Iran.

Iraq spends roughly $900 million monthly on Iranian goods, a major portion of this historically going to electricity and gas. Iranian-backed militias are embedded within Iraq's state institutions. US troops remain on Iraqi soil. Iraq's government walks a tightrope between US alliance and Iranian influence, and its currency walks the same tightrope with it.

The Iraqi dinar's journey has been one of the most dramatic in monetary history. The currency dropped substantially from 3 IQD per USD before 1991 to about 1,310 IQD per USD today. Decades of war, sanctions, and corruption have slowly eroded its value.

In recent years, Iraq has made modest progress: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has provided structural guidance, oil revenues have been strong, and the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has maintained a managed peg to the dollar. Iraq's position as OPEC's second-largest oil producer and strong international support drive steady economic improvements. But all of that relative stability would face severe pressure the moment US bombs begin falling on Iranian soil.

Scenario One: A Limited Strike

The most likely immediate military scenario, and the one that has been most openly discussed in Washington, involves a targeted, time-limited campaign against Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Trump may order a targeted attack on select military sites inside Iran to pressure the country's leaders into agreeing to an acceptable deal, demonstrating US threats of action are real. The targets could include ballistic missile sites, facilities connected to Iran's nuclear program, or buildings used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

In this scenario, the Iraqi dinar's fate would be shaped by several competing forces. On one hand, oil prices would almost certainly spike, and for Iraq, higher oil prices are a lifeline. Iraq's state budget is overwhelmingly dependent on petroleum revenues, and a sudden surge in global crude prices triggered by conflict fears would, in theory, fill state coffers. A better-funded government can defend its exchange rate more effectively.

On the other hand, a limited strike would almost certainly trigger Iranian retaliation, and Iraq would be squarely in the blast radius. Iran's kinetic retaliation plan relies on a reconstituted arsenal of over 3,000 ballistic missiles capable of striking US bases and allied territory across the region, and many of those bases are in Iraq.

US embassies in Iraq and other Arab states began to evacuate personnel in response to Iranian threats on American bases as far back as the lead-up to last year's Operation Midnight Hammer.

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias like Kataib Hezbollah have already issued explicit warnings: leader Ahmad al-Hamidawi warned that any strike on Iranian soil would trigger a "total war" involving militias across the Levant.

For the dinar, this translates to a severe confidence crisis. When violence erupts on Iraqi soil, even if Iraq is not the primary combatant, foreign capital flees, domestic savers rush to convert dinars to dollars, and the black market premium widens dramatically. The Central Bank of Iraq, which sells dollars at auction to defend its peg, would come under enormous pressure. Its foreign exchange reserves, while substantial, are not unlimited, and a sustained capital flight could force a de facto devaluation.

Scenario Two: Sustained Military Campaign or Regime Change

Current contingency planning in the Pentagon is configured for sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if so ordered by Trump. A broader campaign aimed at degrading Iran's military capacity, or worse, one that tips into regime change, would represent a qualitatively different shock to the Iraqi economy.

Iraq's energy dependence on Iran is the most acute vulnerability. If war disrupts those supply lines, through Iranian cut-offs, infrastructure damage, or US sanctions enforcement, Iraqi power grids would come under renewed pressure. Blackouts would damage industry, commerce, and ordinary life.

Economic output would contract sharply, and the government's ability to pay civil servant salaries and maintain social order would erode. In such conditions, the dinar would face significant downward pressure regardless of what the oil price is doing.

There is also the migration and refugee dimension. A major war with Iran, a country of over 90 million people, could produce refugee flows that would dwarf anything the region has seen since 2003. Iraq, which shares a long border with Iran and already hosts displaced populations from earlier conflicts, would be on the front lines of that humanitarian wave. The fiscal and social cost could be immense.

For currency markets, the historical parallel is instructive. During the 2003 US invasion of Iraq itself, Iraqi currency markets experienced extreme dislocations. Capital flight, hoarding of hard currency, and the collapse of normal economic activity all preceded any formal devaluation. A war next door, one that also engulfs Iraqi militias and potentially Iraqi territory, could produce similar dynamics even without Iraq being the primary target.

The Oil Price Paradox

One of the most important, and often misunderstood, dynamics in this scenario is the double-edged nature of oil prices. A major US-Iran conflict would almost certainly send crude prices sharply higher, at least initially. Iran is a significant oil producer, and any conflict that threatens the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes, would trigger immediate panic buying in global energy markets.

For Iraq, this creates a cruel paradox. Higher oil revenues would, in theory, improve the government's fiscal position and its ability to defend the dinar. But the same conflict that pushes oil prices up would simultaneously disrupt Iraq's own oil export infrastructure, close off Iranian energy imports that keep the lights on, trigger militia violence, scare away foreign investment, and force emergency spending on security. The net effect on the dinar would almost certainly be negative, as the costs outweigh the revenue windfall.

The Sanctions and Banking Dimension

Any escalation would also intensify the already complex sanctions environment that shapes how the Iraqi economy interfaces with the global financial system. The Trump administration focuses on selective sanctions against Iraqi banks while conditioning waivers for Iranian energy purchases.

This policy could soon affect Iraq's economic partnerships and currency stability. Banks found to be facilitating Iranian transactions face being cut off from dollar-clearing networks, a potentially devastating punishment in an economy that relies so heavily on the greenback.

This creates a further squeeze on the dinar. If Iraqi banks are penalised for maintaining ties with Iran, ties that are partly economically necessary and partly politically unavoidable, the result is a fragmentation of Iraq's banking sector, reduced access to dollar liquidity, and a wider spread between the official and parallel exchange rates. Ordinary Iraqis, who already prefer to hold savings in US dollars rather than dinars, would accelerate that dollarization, further undermining confidence in the local currency.

Historical Lessons: What 2003 Tells Us

The 2003 US invasion of Iraq offers a partial precedent, though the situations differ significantly. In the immediate aftermath of the invasion, the Iraqi currency market experienced extreme volatility. The old Saddam-era dinar was eventually replaced with a new currency, and a managed peg to the dollar was established. Over time, with massive oil revenues and international support, the new dinar stabilised.

But the early years of post-invasion Iraq were characterised by exactly the kind of dynamics a new conflict would recreate: capital flight, dollarization, black market currency trading, and a gap between official and street exchange rates. The key difference now is that Iraq is not the direct target of military action, but it is the unavoidable collateral victim, geographically, economically, and politically sandwiched between the two combatants.

What Investors and Observers Should Watch

For those tracking the dinar, whether as currency speculators, businesses operating in Iraq, or observers of the wider regional economy, the key indicators to monitor are:

The Central Bank of Iraq's foreign exchange auction volumes and reserves. A sharp drop in reserves or a sudden suspension of dollar auctions would signal that the peg is under existential pressure.

The spread between the official exchange rate and the parallel market rate. Historically, this spread widens during periods of political and security stress, and a significant widening would be an early warning of impending devaluation.

The status of Iranian energy supplies to Iraq. If gas flows are disrupted and the lights go out, the economic fallout would be rapid and severe.

And crucially, the behaviour of Iraq's Iranian-backed militias. If they activate in response to US strikes on Iran, Iraq would transition from bystander to active warzone, and the dinar would face its most serious crisis since 2003.

Conclusion: A Currency with No Good Options

The Iraqi dinar is, at its core, a hostage to forces far beyond Baghdad's control. Iraq's government has limited ability to insulate its currency from a major military confrontation between the United States and Iran, a conflict whose epicentre would be on its doorstep and whose shockwaves would run directly through its energy sector, banking system, and political fabric.

Administration officials have been unclear about what their objectives are as they confront Iran, and that uncertainty itself is a risk factor for the dinar. Markets hate ambiguity, and a conflict with no clear endgame is the worst of all possible scenarios for a currency already carrying the weight of decades of instability.

In the best case, a short, sharp military strike followed by a rapid return to negotiations, the dinar would likely suffer a temporary shock: a flight to dollars, a widening of the parallel market premium, and a drawdown of central bank reserves, but ultimately a manageable correction.

In the worst case, a sustained campaign, militia activation across Iraq, energy supply disruption, and a regional war, the dinar would face its most severe test since the 2003 invasion. The outcome would depend not just on what the US military does to Iran, but on whether Iraq can remain a bystander in a war that, by its very geography, it cannot escape.

This article reflects the geopolitical and economic situation as of late February 2026. It does not constitute financial or investment advice.

By Guest Blogger. Any opinions expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News

 https://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2026/02/27/iqd-in-the-crossfire-what-a-trump-iran-conflict-could-mean-for-iraqs-dinar/

Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Saturday Afternoon 2-28-26

Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps,

REGIONAL WAR SPIRALS: Iran Retaliates After U.S.–Israel Strikes — Middle East in Full Escalation

Fears of broader conflict grow as military operations expand and global reactions pour in

Overview

In the last 24 hours, the Middle East has entered a dramatic escalation with Iran launching retaliatory attacks against Israel and multiple U.S. military bases across the region following coordinated strikes by Israel and United States on Iranian territory. Tehran’s response has escalated tensions well beyond the initial offensive, with strikes reported on bases in the Gulf and threats of continued retaliation. The situation is now actively testing global diplomatic, strategic, and economic fault lines.

Key Developments

1. Iran Launches Widespread Retaliatory Strikes

Iran’s armed forces unleashed a series of missiles and drones targeting U.S. military bases in Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan. Tehran’s leadership framed these attacks as direct reprisals for the U.S. and Israeli strikes, emphasizing their willingness to sustain military pressure until they achieve what they consider “justice.”

2. Civilian Casualties and Infrastructure Damage Raise Stakes

The Iranian counterstrikes reportedly hit both military and infrastructural targets, while Iran’s state media and aid organizations reported substantial casualties and damage in Iranian regions hit by the initial attacks. International concern is intensifying over civilian casualties and the broader humanitarian impact of the conflict.

3. Oil Prices Surge Amid Risk Premium Shock

The conflict’s timing could not be more consequential for global markets. Iran’s role in global oil exports — about 3.4 million barrels per day — and its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz have triggered immediate oil price spikes. Analysts warn that continued hostilities or disruption of shipping lanes could send Brent crude and WTI above recent six-month highs, with potential $100+ per barrel scenarios if the conflict expands.

Why It Matters

This escalation is among the most serious in the region in years:

• Regional Security Breakdown: Iran’s direct attacks on U.S. assets mark a sharp departure from previous proxy and indirect engagements.

• Global Energy Shock Risks: With Iran central to Middle Eastern oil flows, any threat to the Strait of Hormuz or export infrastructure could trigger major energy price shocks.

• Geopolitical Polarization: The conflict threatens to divide global actors along strategic lines, with Western governments pushing de-escalation and others warning against further confrontation.

This is not just regional conflict — it’s a potential catalyst for global energy shocks.

Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders

For global financial observers, these developments could significantly influence currency and asset flows:

• Safe-Haven Demand: Heightened geopolitical risk often strengthens assets like the U.S. dollar, gold, and Treasuries as investors flee uncertainty.

• Commodity Currency Volatility: Currencies tied to oil exporters and emerging markets may see heightened volatility as price expectations adjust.

• Risk Premium Recalibration: Markets are re-pricing geopolitical risk into bond yields, FX spreads, and equity valuations, shifting capital toward perceived stability.

In other words, currency and commodity markets are no longer driven purely by economic fundamentals — they are being reshaped by conflict risk.

This is not just military retaliation — it’s a reset in risk pricing across markets.

Implications for the Global Reset

• Pillar 1: Financial Flows and Strategic Risk

• Geopolitical conflict is now a primary driver of capital allocation. Economic forecasts must factor in not only policy and fundamentals but also conflict risk premiums and defense spending shifts.

• Pillar 2: Energy Security and Monetary Stability

• With oil markets vulnerable to disruption, inflation expectations and currency valuations are being rewritten in real time, potentially accelerating shifts toward alternative energy and settlement mechanisms favored by emerging markets.

This is not just diplomacy failing — it’s the geopolitics of currency and commodities colliding.

Conclusion

The Middle East has slipped into a broader conflict mode, with direct confrontations involving major powers. What began as targeted strikes has expanded into multi-directional military engagement. The economic and geopolitical reverberations are global, influencing markets, energy pricing, and geopolitical alignments.

This is not just war — it’s the reshaping of global market expectations and strategic financial risk.

Seeds of Wisdom Team

Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources

• The Guardian — “Iran vows ‘no leniency’ as it launches reprisal attacks on Israel and US air bases”

• Le Monde — “US strikes on Iran reignite fears of rising oil prices”

~~~~~~~~~~

BRICS vs G7: The Rare Earth Power Shift That Could Reshape Global Finance

As critical minerals become the “new oil,” control of rare earth reserves is rapidly redefining economic power, currency leverage, and the future of global trade.

February 26, 2026

Overview (Key Points)

• BRICS nations control an estimated 72% of global rare earth reserves
• China alone holds 36–40% of world supply
• G7 countries lag significantly in reserves and refining capacity
• Critical minerals are essential for EVs, AI chips, and defense systems
• Mineral dominance could accelerate de-dollarization trends

The financial tug-of-war between BRICS and the G7 has now moved beneath the earth’s surface — into the realm of rare earth minerals. These strategic resources are becoming the cornerstone of the next industrial and financial era.

Key Developments

1. BRICS Holds the Resource Advantage

According to recent estimates, BRICS members dominate global rare earth reserves:

• China: 44 million metric tons (36–40%)

• Brazil: 22 million metric tons (15–16%)

• Russia: 12 million metric tons (9%)

• India: 6.9 million metric tons (5%)

• Vietnam (Partner): 22 million metric tons (15–16%)

Collectively, the bloc controls roughly 72% of global reserves, giving it significant leverage over pricing, supply chains, and export policies.

Meanwhile, G7 holdings remain comparatively limited:

• United States: ~1.5 million metric tons (~1%)

• Canada: ~830,000 metric tons

• Australia (Western ally): 18 million metric tons

• EU deposits (Greenland/Sweden): Promising but years from scale

This imbalance places BRICS in a structurally stronger negotiating position.

2. Refining Bottleneck: China’s Strategic Advantage

Even when Western nations mine rare earths — such as at Mountain Pass in California — much of the ore must still be refined in China. Refining capacity, not just reserves, determines real control.

Beijing has increasingly leveraged this position in trade negotiations, occasionally tightening export controls to the West. That capability transforms rare earths into a geoeconomic pressure tool, similar to how oil functioned in the 20th century.

3. US Response: Strategic Mineral Pacts

In response, U.S. leadership has pursued bilateral agreements, including a reported $550 billion critical minerals pact with Japan, aimed at diversifying supply chains and reducing dependence on China.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also reportedly engaged in high-level discussions focused on “prudent de-risking” strategies, signaling growing urgency in Washington.

Yet despite these moves, rebuilding refining capacity and supply chains domestically will take years — not months.

4. Currency Implications: De-Dollarization Pressure

Control of rare earths does not just influence manufacturing — it affects settlement currency dynamics.

BRICS nations have openly discussed:

• Expanding trade settlement in local currencies
• Increasing yuan-based commodity transactions
• Reducing exposure to the U.S. dollar in strategic sectors

With China holding the largest reserves and dominating refining, Beijing could gradually promote the Chinese yuan in mineral trade settlements — particularly among developing economies.

If critical mineral contracts begin settling in yuan, rupees, or rubles rather than dollars, the long-term structural demand for USD could weaken incrementally.

Why It Matters

Rare earths power:

• Tesla electric vehicles
• Nvidia AI chips
• F-35 fighter jets
• Renewable energy infrastructure
• Advanced defense systems

This is not just about mining — it’s about who controls the future of technology, energy transition, and military capability.

In the 20th century, oil shaped geopolitics.
In the 21st century, rare earth minerals may define financial power blocs.

Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders

For those tracking the global reset thesis:

• Resource dominance supports BRICS trade leverage
• Trade leverage supports local currency settlement
• Local settlement reduces dollar reliance
• Reduced reliance shifts global reserve composition

If mineral contracts increasingly move outside the dollar system, currency realignment pressures intensify.

This does not imply immediate dollar collapse — but it does suggest gradual structural shifts in global settlement architecture.

Implications for the Global Reset

• Pillar 1: Trade Realignment
  BRICS’ control over critical minerals strengthens its negotiating position in global trade agreements and supply chains.

• Pillar 2: Monetary Diversification
  Strategic resource dominance creates a pathway for alternative currency settlement systems — especially in emerging markets.

The rare earth imbalance highlights a deeper truth:
The West owns many brands — but BRICS increasingly owns the inputs.

This is not just resource competition.
It is infrastructure competition for era. the next monetary

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources

• Watcher Guru — “BRICS vs G7: Who Controls Majority of the World’s Rare Earth Reserves”

• U.S. Geological Survey — “Mineral Commodity Summaries: Rare Earths”

~~~~~~~~~~

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“Tidbits From TNT” Saturday 2-28-2026

TNT:

Phantom809: Israel and the U.S. have launched strikes against Iran, with explosions reported in Tehran and air raid sirens sounding across Israel.

AP TEL AVIV — The U.S. and Israel have launched strikes against Iran with the goal of toppling the regime, President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Saturday.

Iran retaliated by launching missiles at Israel and a U.S. naval base in Bahrain. An Iranian official said all Israeli and U.S. interests in the region were now considered legitimate targets.

The joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran comes after weeks of escalating tensions and a major U.S. military buildup in the region, as the U.S. and Iran tried to negotiate a deal to limit Iran's nuclear program. Trump said those efforts had failed.

"Bombs will be dropping everywhere," President Trump said, addressing Iranians in a video posted to his Truth Social account. "When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations."

The Israeli military said in a statement its fighter jets were striking "dozens of military targets" in Iran with "full synchronization and coordination" between the Israeli and U.S. militaries following months of joint planning.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the goal of the joint U.S.-Israeli attack is to "remove the existential threat posed by the terrorist regime in Iran."

"Our joint action will create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands," Netanyahu said in a video.

A person briefed on the operation told NPR it was expected to last a few days, with Israel's military focusing on targeting Iran's missile program.

"We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground," Trump said.

Israel has closed its airspace to all passenger flights, and civil defense protocols have been activated. Regional military forces remain on high alert.

A 48-hour state of emergency has been declared nationwide. Air raid sirens have been sounding across Israel, with authorities warning civilians to enter bomb shelters.

Trails of smoke streaked the sky above Tel Aviv as Israeli interception systems fired at incoming missiles. A hospital in central Israel began moving operations to an underground fortified compound.

"Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people. It's menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas and our allies throughout the world," Trump said.

Trump said the U.S. had "sought repeatedly to make a deal" but Iran "rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions."

Trump told the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to "lay down your arms… or you will face certain death."

Iranian government media reported rocket fire in parts of the capital, Tehran. State television has broadcast footage showing smoke rising after a blast in the city. The extent of the damage and potential casualties has not yet been confirmed.

The strike follows weeks of speculation about potential military action against Iran, particularly amid a significant U.S. military buildup in the Middle East.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

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Tishwash: Trump: I get along well with Iraqi leaders

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he gets on very well with Iraqi leaders.

In Baghdad, US envoy Tom Barrack held a series of meetings with senior officials to resolve the political deadlock in the country.

Trump said, “I get along very well with the Iraqi leadership,” indicating that there is good understanding and coordination between the two sides.

A source within the coordination framework revealed an American warning related to Iraqi political entitlements. The source stated that the American envoy, Tom Barrack, informed the Iraqi Prime Minister that Washington might impose sanctions if Nouri al-Maliki were nominated for a high political position.

The source indicated that the potential US sanctions on Iraq may be announced in the middle of next week, and will initially target figures loyal to Iran, before later including leaders in the coordination framework.

Al-Ahd TV, the mouthpiece of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, which opposes Maliki’s nomination for prime minister, quoted a source as saying: “Barak informed Maliki that America does not object to him assuming any position other than the prime ministership.”  link

Tishwash: Two crucial messages for Maliki... "The Hour" reveals Washington's message

 In recent hours, the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, witnessed two important meetings between the US envoy to Iraq, Tom Barak , and outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the State of Law Coalition and candidate of the Coordination Framework for the next government .

The importance of the two meetings stems from the fact that they form the basis for determining the shape of the next government, the course of the political process, and the relationship between Baghdad and Washington, in light of the American rejection of al-Maliki’s nomination for the premiership and the latter’s insistence on adhering to this nomination, as the United States had previously threatened to impose sanctions on Iraq if al-Maliki assumed the position .

A statement from the Iraqi Prime Minister's office said that "Barak conveyed to Al-Sudani the viewpoint of US President Donald Trump, his vision of the current situation in the region, and Iraq's pivotal role in building stability and promoting regional development . "

The statement, which was received by Al-Sa’a Network, explained that “Al-Sudani indicated that the Iraqi leadership is committed to prioritizing the national interest and making efforts to protect the interests of the Iraqi people,” noting that “Iraq’s sovereignty and stability in various fields are not merely local considerations.”

The media office of Nouri al-Maliki, head of the State of Law Coalition, confirmed in a statement that he received the American envoy and that they discussed developments in the political scene in Iraq and upcoming national obligations .

During the meeting, according to a statement from his office, Maliki stressed "the need to respect Iraq's sovereignty and the choices of its people," pointing to "the importance of supporting the democratic process and strengthening political stability," and noting "the importance of continued communication and coordination between the two sides on issues of common interest."

The content of the two American messages to Maliki

However, political sources within the coordination framework revealed the content of the two meetings, in a manner that differs radically from the official statements issued by the offices of Al-Sudani and Al-Maliki. According to these sources, the American envoy informed Al-Sudani that Washington would impose sanctions if Al-Maliki were nominated for the premiership .

The most important content came during the meeting between Barak and Maliki, where the American envoy handed Maliki two messages, one written and the other oral, stating that Maliki would not be the head of the next government in Iraq, otherwise American sanctions would be imposed on institutions, entities and individuals in Iraq .

Al-Sa’a Network obtained the contents of the two American messages addressed to Nouri al-Maliki and the coordination framework. The written message that Barak conveyed to al-Maliki from US President Donald Trump included the following :

" The United States recognizes and appreciates your experience, wisdom, and vision, which are of paramount importance not only to the political development in Iraq but also to the broader stability of the region. It is in this spirit that we seek constructive engagement, within the framework of specific considerations, to ensure the formation of the next Iraqi government. Trump's stance toward Maliki and the prime ministerial candidate is not based on personalities but on principle. Trump is focused on a new Middle East that turns the page on the past, one in which Iraq serves as an inspiration both domestically and internationally, and in which it strengthens its partnership with the United States. In this context, we must be direct and clear: the formation of the new government must reflect balance, inclusivity, and momentum toward the future.

This requires your (Maliki's) public and official withdrawal from the premiership. This step is essential for a viable political consensus and a move toward restoring international confidence at a pivotal moment in the future of Iraq and the region.

We believe your (Maliki's) voice will be valuable in selecting the next prime ministerial candidate. However, we must also be clear: failure to cooperate in facilitating this transition and forming the government as Washington sees fit will have consequences, and the United States will impose sanctions." Measures were taken against a number of Iraqi government institutions, as well as bodies, individuals and entities in Iraq .

As for the verbal message that Barak conveyed to Maliki, it included, according to informed political sources, that “Iraq has become completely subservient to Iran in recent years, and that the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq are the ones who control and lead the scene in Iraq, and that the United States spent billions of dollars on Iraq without gaining anything, and in return, Iran took control of it. Therefore, we will give you (Maliki) the option and opportunity for you and your team to participate in choosing the next prime minister and to have a role in Iraqi political life in the next stage, and you can be officially invited to the United States, but all of this is after you officially and publicly withdraw from the nomination for the position of prime minister of the next government.”

Sources confirmed that the US sanctions could be announced in the middle of next week, and will include pro-Iran figures, then leaders in the coordination framework, and possibly Maliki , all if the latter does not give up his candidacy for the next government .

American messages combine persuasion and intimidation

Regarding the American messages to Maliki, Essam Al-Faily, a professor of political science at Al-Mustansiriya University, confirmed that the American message of rejection of Maliki assuming the premiership is clear through the leaks of what was said in the meeting that brought the latter together with the American envoy .

Al-Faily told Al-Sa’a Network: “The American message is clear and combines enticement and intimidation, as Washington confirmed that Maliki is an unwelcome figure in the position of Prime Minister, but at the same time the United States appreciates Maliki’s role and left him the important role in choosing the candidate for the premiership after he withdrew his candidacy and stipulated that his candidate be far from the Iranian axis . ”

He added that "the American message confirms that Washington does not want figures close to Iran, based on its vision for the region and the new Middle East, as it is working to limit Iranian influence in Iraq by preventing Maliki from assuming the premiership on the one hand, and preventing any other figure close to the Iranian axis from assuming this position . "

Al-Faily pointed out that “Washington is very frank and serious about dealing with the same way it dealt with Maliki, as it will take the same position with any figure close to Iran in Iraq, and this necessitates that Iraqi politicians understand this American vision in dealing with the Iraqi and Iranian file during the next stage.”

Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki expressed his rejection of what he described as blatant American interference in Iraq’s internal affairs, considering it a violation of the country’s sovereignty, in response to US President Donald Trump’s warning against Maliki’s return to the premiership .

This was preceded by the announcement of the Coordination Framework nominating Maliki for the premiership, in light of the results of the parliamentary elections in November 2025. However, Trump warned at the time that he would stop his country’s support for Iraq if Maliki assumed the position of Prime Minister .

Is there a time limit for the sanctions?

Regarding the existence of a time limit for imposing American sanctions on Iraq, researcher and political analyst Ayed Al-Hilali said, “In light of the meeting that took place today between Tom Barrack and Nouri Al-Maliki, questions are escalating in political circles about the nature of the messages that the meeting carried, and whether it reflects a decisive American position rejecting Al-Maliki’s nomination for the premiership, in addition to what is being rumored about the existence of a time limit ending on Monday to resolve this issue . ”

Al-Hilali added in a statement to Al-Sa’a Network: “The available data indicates that the meeting falls within the framework of normal diplomatic communication between Washington and the influential Iraqi political forces, especially in light of the political deadlock and internal complexities in which regional and international considerations are intertwined.”

He explained that the United States views the formation of the Iraqi government from the perspective of stability and ensuring that the country does not slide into new conflicts or sharp alignments that affect its strategic balances. Therefore, any messages conveyed during these meetings often relate to the specifications of the next stage and the form of the government, more than to an official declaration of rejection of a specific person.

Al-Hilali continued: “Regarding what is being circulated about a deadline ending on Monday, no official Iraqi body has yet announced a binding constitutional deadline at this time,” stressing that “the constitution does not stipulate a time limit for nominating a specific person outside the general frameworks for assigning the largest bloc, and therefore, talk of a deadline seems closer to political pressure or indirect messages aimed at accelerating understandings between the different forces, and not an official decision announced with a final date.”

Al-Hilali pointed out that “according to the political assessment, there may be American signals about the need to expedite the resolution to avoid further complications, but the final decision remains an internal Iraqi one, governed by the balance of power and understandings between the blocs. Therefore, the meeting and talk about the deadline reflect the level of sensitivity surrounding the stage, more than they indicate a decisive international decision that has been officially announced  link

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Mot: The Traffic Cam