When Everyone’s a Genius (A Few Thoughts on Speculation)
When Everyone’s a Genius (A Few Thoughts on Speculation)
Feb 24, 2021 by Morgan Housel
The end of a speculative boom can be inevitable but not predictable. Unsustainable things can last a long time. Identifying something that can’t go on forever doesn’t mean that thing can’t keep going for years. Years and years and years. Part of it is emotion. During the Vietnam War Ho Chi Minh said, “You will kill ten of us, and we will kill one of you, but it is you who will tire first.” Emotional trends aren’t beholden to logic, which can keep them going far past any point of reason.
Part is storytelling. Unsustainable trends have life support if enough people think they’re true, and once people believe something’s true it gets hard to convince them it’s not. Or put differently: If enough people believe it’s true it’s just as powerful as actually being true.
Every investor is making bets on the future. It’s only called speculation when you disagree with someone else’s bet.
In hindsight there was as much speculation in the 1990s that Kodak and Sears would keep their market share as there was that eToys and Pets.com would gain market share. Both were bets on the future. Both were wrong. It happens. Of course there’s a speculation spectrum. But let’s not pretend that others speculate while you only deal with certainties.
The willingness to believe crazy things increases when it feels like the world is dangerous and falling apart. Chronicling the Great Plague of London, Daniel Defoe wrote in 1722:
The people were more addicted to prophecies and astrological conjurations, dreams, and old wives’ tales than ever they were before or since … almanacs frightened them terribly … the posts of houses and corners of streets were plastered over with doctors’ bills and papers of ignorant fellows, quacking and inviting the people to come to them for remedies.
Optimism always overshoots. It has to. The correct price of any asset is what someone else is willing to pay for it, because all asset prices rely on subjective assumptions about the future. And like a blind man who doesn’t know where a wall is until he bumps into it, markets cannot know exactly how much people are willing to pay until they go a little too far and say, “Ah, in hindsight, that was the limit.”
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Note: All intel should be considered as "Rumors" until we receive official announcements ...and “Rates and Dates” could change anytime until we get to the banks/redemption centers.
Reset Intelligence: September First
9-1-2026
September First
By Reset Intelligence | @EXIT_FIAT
Iraq’s bypass export contracts took effect this morning, on the exact date the cabinet set.
Between External Borrowing And Removing Zeros... The Government Faces Difficult Choices To Address The Financial Crisis
31 Aug 13:51 Information/Report... As pressure mounts on Iraq's public finances, a range of options for addressing the liquidity crisis are resurfacing. These include resorting to external borrowing and restructuring the local currency.
Parliamentary sources confirm that the project to remove zeros from the currency has not yet entered the implementation phase, while economists discuss the possibility of securing a substantial external loan to provide liquidity and bolster reserves.
Good Morning Dinar Recaps,
U.S. DEBT TOPS $40 TRILLION: RISING TREASURY YIELDS EXPOSE A NEW FISCAL PRESSURE POINT
America's debt has crossed $40 trillion as rising long-term Treasury yields increase the cost of government borrowing and force markets to reassess the country's fiscal flexibility.
Monetary RESET Has Begun, But “Performance Gold” Could Be the Biggest Opportunity | Ronald Stöeferle
Miles Franklin Media: 9-1-2026
Michelle Makori, President & Editor-in-Chief of Miles Franklin Media, interviews Ronald-Peter Stöferle, Managing Partner and Fund Manager at Incrementum and co-author of the annual In Gold We Trust report.
Stöferle explains why gold is undergoing a “creeping remonetization,” driven by central-bank accumulation, geopolitical fragmentation and growing concerns over the global monetary system. He argues that gold’s bull market is not yet in a bubble and reveals why $8,900 gold is now his new base case after his previous $4,800 target was reached ahead of schedule.
KTFA
Tuesday Night Video
FRANK26….9-1-26….NEW PATH WITH TRUMP
This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only
Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie and Omar in Iraq and guests
Playback Number: 605-313-5163 PIN: 156996#
The Rising Dollar Is Testing Banking Reforms; The Central Bank Is Changing Rules, But The Parallel Market Is Resisting.
Last updated: August 30, 2026 Al-Mustaqilla/Baghdad/- The dollar is still being sold in the Iraqi parallel market at a significant difference from the price announced by the Central Bank, despite a series of banking and regulatory measures implemented by the authorities during the past months in an attempt to restructure the financial sector and expand official channels for obtaining foreign currency.
Your Mortgage Is Now Competing With Google and the Pentagon
Notes From the Field by James Hickman (Simon Black / Sovereign Man) September 1, 2026
Hardly a week goes by without another data center announcement, and the projects have gotten so big that they're now measured in gigawatts.
A gigawatt is a billion watts of electricity. Running around the clock, one gigawatt is enough to supply about 800,000 average American homes— and a single large data center is now built at that scale.
Is Scott Bessent turning off Iran is then the QFS turned on
Dr. Scott Young:9-1-2026
A fundamental restructuring of global economic power is quietly under way, marking a dramatic departure from decades of traditional central banking control.
In a compelling analysis, Dr. Scott Young explores how recent shifts in U.S. financial strategy under the Trump administration signal a new era of monetary enforcement and sovereign economic realignment.
Putting US Treasury on Trial for Theft and Treason? | Rick Rule
Liberty and Finance: 8-31-2026
Rick Rule puts the U.S. financial system on trial. In this unconventional and provocative interview,
Rick Rule takes the stand as an “expert witness” in a mock trial examining some of the most controversial questions facing American savers: Is the financial system quietly eroding purchasing power, penalizing savers, and transferring wealth through inflation and taxation?
Oil Prices Climb Above $91 On Renewed US-Iran Strikes
2026-09-01 Shafaq News Oil prices gained around $1 on Tuesday as the resumption of fighting between the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East renewed fears of supply disruptions from the world's key crude-producing region.
Brent crude futures were up $1.05, or 1.2%, to $91.54 a barrel at 0455 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.27, or 1.5%, to $87.03.
Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps,
Japan's 30-Year Bond Shock: Rising Yields Challenge the World's Debt System
Japan's surging long-term bond yields are testing the country's debt sustainability while creating potential ripple effects across global capital flows and government borrowing costs.
Ariel: Banking Infrastructure Preparations for the Iraqi Dinar Revaluation Event
9-1-2026
The Currency Undercurrent: Banks That Are Shifting Business Models For The Reset
Domestic Banking Infrastructure Preparations for Iraqi Dinar Revaluation Event
THE SEPTEMBER 30 CONDITIONAL
Iraq’s announcement that it will not extend the September 30 deadline for US troop withdrawal is the public-facing lever.
TNT:
Tishwash: Al-Zaydi, in a meeting with the framework: The file of vacant ministries will be completed this week.
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi confirmed that discussions regarding the vacant ministries will be completed this week, during a new meeting with the coordination framework held in the office of Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Amiri.
According to a statement published by the Coordination Framework, the meeting discussed "the latest developments at the local and international levels," while Al-Zaydi announced at the beginning of the meeting that "discussions related to completing the government formation will be completed during this week, in preparation for sending it to the House of Representatives next week for a vote."
Note: All intel should be considered as "Rumors" until we receive official announcements ...and “Rates and Dates” could change anytime until we get to the banks/redemption centers.
RV Excerpts from the Restored Republic via a GCR Update as of Tues. 1 Sept. 2026
Compiled Tues. 1 Sept. 2026 12:01 am EST by Judy Byington
The Ultimate Interoperability Grid Is Going Live – And the Legacy Rails Are Being Bypassed Forever. …US Treasury Center on Telegram Mon. 31 Aug. 2026
While the legacy financial media is still arguing over inflation data and interest rate cuts, a seismic infrastructure shift is (allegedly) quietly locking into place. The old correspondent banking network—built on fragmented ledgers, multi-day delays, and archaic messaging—has officially hit a structural wall. Cross-border payments are taking longer, friction is mounting, and traditional institutions are scrambling to plug the leaks.
Coffee with MarkZ, joined by Andy Schectman and Zester. 09/02/2026
MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions
MZ: Andy joins us early this morning around 15 minutes in. I will give a quick news update first thing to be prepared. Iraq seems to be doing what it takes to increase their value.
THE CONTENT IN THIS PODCAST IS FOR GENERAL & EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY&NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE ANY PROFESSIONAL, FINANCIAL OR LEGAL ADVICE. PLEASE CONSIDER EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN MARKZ’S OPINION ONLY