"Tidbits From TNT" Wednesday Morning 10-27-2021

Oct 27

TNT:

Tishwash: Adviser: The rise in oil prices will contribute to covering the budget deficit of 29 trillion dinars

The expert financial advisor to the government, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, confirmed that the rise in oil prices will contribute to covering the current budget deficit of 29 trillion dinars at a rate of 100%, provided that the planned non-oil revenues achieve a ratio of approximately 90-100%, not 30%, as is expected. , to widen the fiscal deficit gap in the general budget.

And Muhammad Salih said in a press statement, which was monitored by The Independent today, Wednesday, that “despite the fact that monetary policy has moved from the stage of challenges that accompanied the economic depression in the country to the stage of détente and the search for opportunities, which was confirmed by two things, the first of which:

The increase in the Central Bank of Iraq’s foreign currency reserves by 12 billion dollars during the current fiscal year 2021, and secondly, financing the federal budget deficit from the flow of cash revenues accumulated by the financial buffer as a result of the growing oil price differences from 45 dollars in calculating oil revenues in the budget to 80 dollars currently with an annual average of no less than 65 dollars, which covers the budget deficit The current amount of 29 trillion dinars, at a rate of 100%, provided that the planned non-oil revenues (also) achieve a ratio of approximately 90-100%, not 30%, as is expected, to widen the fiscal deficit gap in the general budget.

He added: However, there are two other things that still represent the concern of the difficult Iraqi economic equation, which is the humility of the expected annual economic growth to (positive 1%), which is less than the population growth rate of 2.6%, which indicates the continued high levels of unemployment among young people by about 23%, in addition to the increasing levels of poverty that still take from the prosperity of life for about 40% of the country’s population, accompanied by creeping annual inflation that increased from 1% at the beginning of this year to rise to about 9.5-10% annually.

The government advisor stressed the need to exercise monetary policy with its available tools to address expected inflation and the problems of fluctuation in the stability of the real sector in the issues of growth and unemployment and how the central bank uses the exchange rate tool as a nominal stabilizer to reach a equilibrium exchange rate that targets imported inflation and leads to an improvement in the value of the Iraqi dinar purchasing through Reducing the increases in the degree of growth rates of inflation through the framework of a gradual policy, meaning a decrease in the increasing increases in price growth. link

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Tishwash: On one condition.. Al-Kazemi's government expects to cover the budget deficit by 100%

Mazhar Muhammad Salih, the financial and economic advisor to the caretaker prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, expected, on Wednesday, to cover the entire deficit in the federal financial budget for the current year after the rise in oil prices.

Saleh told Shafaq News Agency, "The rise in oil prices will contribute to covering the current budget deficit of 29 trillion dinars at a rate of 100%, provided that the planned non-oil revenues achieve a ratio of approximately 90-100% and not 30% as it is expected, to widen the fiscal deficit gap. in the general budget.

And he indicated that "there are two other things that still represent the concern of the difficult Iraqi economic equation, which is the modest annual economic growth expected to (positive 1%), which is less than the population growth rate of 2.6%."

Saleh explained that this "indicates the persistence of high levels of unemployment among young people, reaching about 23%, in addition to the increasing levels of poverty that still take from the prosperity of life for about 40% of the country's population."

He added, "This is accompanied by a creeping annual inflation that increased from 1% at the beginning of this year to about 9.5-10% annually."

Iraq is the second largest oil producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia, with a production of about 4.5 million barrels per day, of which the country exports about 3.5 million barrels per day.

The country relies on oil sales revenues to cover up to 95 percent of state expenditures, which makes the country's rentier economy highly affected by the rise or fall of crude prices in global markets. link

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Tishwash: The lie of the non-rentier economy is revealed by a global economic website.. Iraq is a winner in 2020!

Economic data showed that the trade balance of most Arab countries last year was a loser, with the exception of 5 countries that depend on oil exports.

According to the data of the "ITC Trade" website, the trade balance is profitable for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain and Qatar, as its exports exceeded imports.

Here is a table that includes foreign trade data for most Arab countries for the year 2020:
I could not post the table and it is in ARABic anyway

And the trade balance of any country is the difference between the value of exports and imports during a certain period of time. If the value of imports exceeds exports, this means that there is a deficit in the trade balance, and if there is an increase in exports and a decrease in imports here, the country will have a trade surplus. link

Mot: feel Free to let yourself in! ~~~