Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Friday Morning 12-19-25
Good Morning Dinar Recaps,
De-Dollarization Comes in Cycles, Not a One-Way Path: U.S. Fed
Federal Reserve research shows dollar dominance rises and falls in waves — not a straight decline
Overview
• Dollar dominance is cyclical, not linear
Federal Reserve research shows the U.S. dollar’s role in global debt markets expands and contracts over long cycles rather than permanently declining.
• De-dollarization narratives oversimplify reality
Despite rising rhetoric, historical data suggests dollar usage rebounds after downturns.
• Alternatives face liquidity and trust limits
China’s renminbi and other currencies lack the scale, openness, and confidence needed to displace the dollar.
• A multipolar system may emerge — not dollar collapse
The future points toward more currencies used in trade, with the dollar still at the center.
Key Developments
Dollarization Waves Identified by the Fed
The Federal Reserve paper Dollarization Waves: New Evidence from a Comprehensive International Bond Database analyzes over 60 years of global bond issuance. It finds repeated cycles where dollar usage rises, retreats, and then resurges — challenging the idea of a permanent shift away from the dollar.
De-Dollarization Momentum Faces Structural Barriers
While de-dollarization efforts have gained traction over the last two decades, the study shows that most developing nations still borrow heavily in U.S. dollars, reinforcing dollar demand during financial stress.
RMB Expansion Falls Short of Displacement
China has pushed the renminbi as a global alternative, but limited convertibility, capital controls, and trust concerns restrict its international adoption compared to the dollar.
Dollar Still Anchors Global Reserves
The U.S. dollar remains the dominant reserve currency worldwide. Even as its share fluctuates, no competing currency has matched its liquidity, legal transparency, and global acceptance.
Why It Matters
This research reframes the global currency debate. Rather than signaling the end of dollar dominance, current de-dollarization trends resemble past cycles that eventually stabilized or reversed. Understanding these patterns is critical as markets adjust to shifting trade alliances, rising geopolitical risk, and evolving monetary systems.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
Foreign currency holders should recognize that dollar pullbacks historically create volatility — not replacement. Periods of diversification often precede renewed dollar demand during crises, debt servicing, and capital flight events.
Implications for the Global Reset
Pillar 1: Cyclical Dollar Power
The dollar’s dominance adapts rather than disappears, reinforcing its role during global stress while allowing room for diversification in calmer periods.
Pillar 2: Controlled Multipolar Transition
The global system is moving toward broader currency usage in trade and settlement — but without dismantling the dollar-based financial architecture.
This is not just politics — it’s global finance restructuring before our eyes.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
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BRICS Bloc Counters Trump: China and Russia Back Venezuela
Beijing and Moscow signal resistance as U.S. pressure on Caracas escalates
Overview
• BRICS pushes back against U.S. pressure
China and Russia publicly back Venezuela as Washington escalates sanctions, seizures, and military deployments.
• Trump orders aggressive oil enforcement
The U.S. announces a blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers and seizes vessels tied to sanctions violations.
• Diplomatic lines harden into blocs
Statements from Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin underscore a widening geopolitical divide.
• Global markets face rising instability risks
Energy supply fears and military posturing raise volatility concerns.
Key Developments
Trump Announces Blockade and Seizures
President Trump ordered what he called a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers. U.S. forces seized vessels allegedly tied to sanctions breaches and drug trafficking, intensifying tensions in the Caribbean and threatening oil supply flows.
China and Russia Issue Firm Support Statements
Russian President Vladimir Putin wrote directly to President Nicolás Maduro, expressing confidence Venezuela would defend its legitimate interests. Chinese President Xi Jinping went further, categorically rejecting external interference and pledging continued support for Venezuela’s sovereignty and stability.
Military Posture Escalates in the Region
The U.S. deployed a nuclear-powered submarine, surveillance aircraft, and approximately 15,000 troops to the Caribbean. Strikes on vessels allegedly involved in illicit activity reportedly resulted in dozens of deaths, heightening fears of miscalculation.
BRICS Solidarity Meets Practical Limits
While Russia and China signal diplomatic backing, analysts caution against expectations of direct military involvement. Officials emphasize political support and deterrence rather than escalation, reflecting competing priorities elsewhere.
Why It Matters
The standoff highlights how geopolitical power is fragmenting into competing blocs. As sanctions, blockades, and counter-alliances multiply, energy markets, trade routes, and diplomatic norms face sustained pressure, accelerating global realignment.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
Escalating sanctions and military risk increase volatility in oil-linked currencies, emerging market assets, and reserve allocations, reinforcing the need for diversification amid geopolitical stress.
Implications for the Global Reset
Pillar 1: Bloc-Based Power Alignment
BRICS coordination reflects a shift away from unilateral U.S. dominance toward competing centers of influence.
Pillar 2: Energy and Sanctions as Financial Weapons
Oil blockades and asset seizures underscore how control of trade and finance is central to modern geopolitical strategy.
This is not just politics — it’s global finance restructuring before our eyes.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
Watcher.Guru – “BRICS Bloc Counters Trump: China and Russia Back Venezuela”
Newsweek – “China and Russia Pledge Support for Venezuela Amid U.S. Pressure”
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🌱 A Message to Our Currency Holders🌱
If you’ve been holding foreign currency for many years, you were not foolish.
You were not wrong to believe the global financial system would change.
What failed was not your patience — it was the information you were given.
For years, dates, rumors, and personalities replaced facts, structure, and proof. “This week” predictions created cycles of hope and disappointment that were never based on how currencies actually change.
That is not your failure.
Our mission here is different:
• No dates • No rates • No hype • No gurus
Instead, we focus on:
• Verifiable developments • Institutional evidence
• Global financial structure • Where countries actually sit in the process
Currency value changes only come after sovereignty, trade, banking, settlement systems, and fiscal coordination are in place. History and institutions confirm this sequence.
You will see silence. You will see denials. That is not delay — that is discipline.
Protect your identity. Organize your documents. Verify everything.
Never hand your discernment to anyone who cannot show proof.
You deserve truth — not timelines.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
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