KTFA Members "News and Views" Wednesday Afternoon 4-15-2020

KTFA:

Ryan1216:  Hopefully Al- Kazemis GOI is given confidence on Tuesday

YoundSC:  IMO makes no difference for us. CBI will do what they have to do regardless. There is too much upside based on articles we have seen in the last 2 weeks. Auctions stopped, American dollar no longer being used in a illegal way along with NSCN'S and value of the dinar being mention to raise in value soon.

If government is given confidence is nice and good of course but what we have witnessed in the last 3 weeks coming from the CBI is very powerful and they have not mention anything about confidence being granted to the GOI for them to increase the value of their own IQD. T

his is just my opinion based on what we seen in those powerful articles and what Frank, Delta, MM and Walkingstick has taught us for so long.

GodLover:  I felt the need to stress a point...…. an imo, if you will. 

There is so much evidence the MR is continuing per articles, Frank & team, etc....imo.  With that said, there is also equal evidence per articles, the MR needs a new seated government imo. Honestly, the evidence is in the articles if one is willing to see it for themselves imo. I will put this out there as my take on why Frank continues to say he doesn't care about a new PM, possibly because he wants people to stay focused on the MR that continues..... not because it is not needed? Possibly the case, although I am not certain or putting words in Frank's mouth imo. 

After all..... we have all seen & read the current care-taker government cannot send the 2020 budget imo. If that were possible, don't you think it would have happened by now? The CBI had even made it clear per articles...…. the need for a seated GOI imo.

Another scenario...… the economic meetings are still going on, maybe when all agreements are reached, the GOI will be seated, the budget sent & the MR released..... imo

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YoungSC:  I just feel like as Frank stated before that as long as they have a chosen pm and his cabinet there intact without an official vote it is not as important as we thought it is because the CBI will do what they have to do and it does seem that way because of the amount of information that is coming out. I feel as If the GOI is not taking the vote seriously at all because we have been through 3 different pm's in the last month or so and im assuming that the CBI will proceed regardless. I strongly believe that we are at the end my brother. This is a blessing that God as provided for us and it will be here for us very soon. We all just have to be a little patient. Iraq can only last for so long without cash sale Auctions and the citizens will get what they have been waiting for. A rate will be shown very soon imo.

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Samson:  The G20 agrees to freeze the temporary debt of the poorest countries

15th April, 2020

On Wednesday, the Group of Twenty agreed to freeze the temporary debt of the poorest countries

For his part, the Saudi Finance Minister said, "The G20 pumped $ 7 trillion into the global economy to protect jobs and businesses
 
The spread of the Corona virus forced many countries to close their borders, suspend flights, impose curfews, disrupt studies, cancel numerous events, prevent public gatherings, and close mosques and churches  LINK

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Samson:  International monetary forecast a sharp slowdown in the Iraqi economy this year and a strong recovery next year

15th April, 2020

The International Monetary Fund expected, on Wednesday, a sharp slowdown in the Iraqi economy this year, followed by a strong recovery next year

The fund said in a report for the month of April that it is expected "that there will be a sharp slowdown in the Iraqi economy this year, followed by a strong recovery in 2021
 
He added that "Iraq increased its real GDP in 2019 to 3.9%, but it is expected that this year will decrease by 4.7%, while next year 2021 will grow significantly by 7.2%
 
He expected that "consumer price inflation in Iraq will reach 0.8% in 2020 and 1.0% in 2021
 
He pointed out that "the pandemic of COVID-19 will cause human costs to rise and rise all over the world, and the necessary protection measures severely affect economic activity
 
He noted that "as a result of the epidemic, the global economy is expected to contract sharply by -3% in 2020, which is much worse than it was during the 2008-2009 financial crisis   LINK

Don961:  The Iraqi dinar is falling apart: Corruption and Corona are jumping in dollars

3 Hours Ago

The turmoil in the Iraqi dinar exchange rate against the dollar recently led to negative effects, which directly affected the business sector and commodities in the markets, which led to the loss of confidence of dealers and investors in the monetary authority.

The decline of the dinar came after the Central Bank of Iraq stopped its activities related to pumping liquidity in foreign exchange to meet the needs of banks and their customers, as it was pumping an average of 140 million dollars or more per day to maintain the value of the currency and support its stability, and stopping the pumping of liquidity led to a jump in the exchange rate of one dollar from 1200 to 1280 Iraqi dinars, amid warnings of the continuation of this rise due to the curfew imposed by the authorities as part of the procedures to face the outbreak of the Corona epidemic.

In the midst of the financial crisis experienced by the world in general and Iraq in particular in light of the collapse of oil prices and the large deficit in the budget for 2020, the government faces great economic challenges, most notably the difficulty that the central bank can maintain the value of the dinar against the dollar because of the corrupt control of the auction of selling currency, according to What officials and economists see.

In an interview with "The New Arab," an official in the caretaker government said that "the central bank cannot maintain the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar by continuing to pump the hard currency to the market, because of the lack of public revenues due to weak demand for oil and the decline in its price." That "the central bank will have to legalize the sale of the currency for a certain period until oil prices rise again."
And Iraq, the second largest producer of crude oil in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), with an average daily production of 4.5 million barrels per day.

The official, who preferred to remain anonymous, added that "continuing to hold auctions to sell currency and pump tens of millions of dollars per day to preserve the value of the dinar leads to great risks for the country's economy, and it is better for the central bank to cancel the currency auction and install its local currency, since most of the beneficiaries are Of these auctions are not businessmen and merchants, but banks, banks and private sector companies dominating the market, a large part of which has been transferred out of Iraq.

He pointed out that the central bank has succeeded in recent years in achieving the stability of the dinar exchange rate and improving it in relation to the dollar and other currencies by stabilizing the price of the local currency and defending it, but the current collapse in oil prices, and consequently, the country's financial returns are completely different from the crises of past years.

According to the official, "There are daily discussions to reach a road map that enables the country to maintain an acceptable exchange secret of the dinar against the dollar."

The central bank sells between 140 and 160 million dollars to public and private companies and banks, as part of a plan adopted since 2004 to control the exchange rate of the dinar and prevent its collapse in the market. The central bank only allows companies and limited banks to enter the auction and buy dollars, amounting to less than 50 banks and financial companies that are licensed by the central bank, all of which are private or private.

For his part, Professor of International Economic Relations at the Iraqi University, Abdul Rahman Al-Mashhadani, said in an interview with "The New Arab" that "canceling the currency auction is very difficult, because the goal of the currency window is to finance imports in the private sector."

According to Al-Mashhadani, 90% of the country's consumer needs are secured by import by the private sector, which means that canceling the currency auction will lead to a major disruption in the prices of imported goods.

Al-Mashhadani stressed that "the currency auction is a drain on foreign exchange due to its association with prominent political figures," pointing out that 15% of Central Bank sales through the auction go as money laundering in various ways and methods and are transferred outside of Iraq.

He pointed out that the best way for the central bank to follow is to legalize the sale of hard currency as much as possible to maintain the value of the dinar and foreign exchange reserves.

For its part, Ayat Muzaffar, a member of the Iraqi parliament from the "victory" coalition led by former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, attributed the causes of the economic collapse and the value of the dinar against the dollar to the wrong financial policies pursued by the Adel Abdul-Mahdi government.

Muzaffar said, in an interview with the "New Arab", that "bad management and fiscal policy floundering the head of the caretaker government, Adel Abdul Mahdi, and its indiscriminate spending on the state budget, is one of the main reasons that led to the economic collapse of Iraq, and to an unprecedented financial deficit is expected to It is, if oil prices continue to decline, about 80 trillion dinars.

She explained a member of the Iraqi parliament that the central bank spent a large part of the cash reserve for the purpose of stabilizing the dinar price against the dollar, which led to the depletion of the cash reserve, and then the central bank will lose over time its ability to maintain the par value of the dinar.

She added that "the confusion in the government's performance seemed clear when the head of the crisis cell spoke about the possibility of Iraq resorting to printing the currency", noting that the printing of the currency is based on three reasons, either that there is a frayed currency to print as a substitute for it, or because of an economic recovery that is printed An easy amount until there are surplus sums that increase the demand for goods and services so that the producers increase the production.

As for the other reason, according to Muzaffar, the printed currency must be equal to the national product, while stressing the need to preserve the monetary reserve of the central bank through its reliance on a flexible policy that takes into account the emerging political and economic conditions of the country.

And at the end of last March, the rapporteur of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Ahmed Al-Saffar, said that "the central bank reserves reached 87 billion dollars, and it does not include cash and foreign currency only, but it includes gold bars."

Ammar Hamid  New Arab  link

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Samson:  Arab criticism elects Al-Alaq as Chairman of his Board of Governors

15th April, 2020
The Central Bank of Iraq announced, on Wednesday, the election of its governor, Ali Mohsen Al-Alaq, as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Arab Monetary Fund.

The bank stated in a statement received by / Mawazine News / a copy of it, that "the Arab Monetary Fund, in accordance with its decision No. (1) for the year 2020, was elected Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, Ali Mohsen Ismail Al-Alaq, as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Fund."

He added, "The Governor of the Sultanate of Oman was elected by the Fund as his deputy in its forty-fourth annual session." LINK

Don961: Specialists warn of declining financial revenues of the state

Sunday 12 April 2020   Baghdad / Al-Sabah

Experts and specialists in the financial and economic affairs warned against the continuation of declining financial revenues for the state due to the drop in oil prices in global markets, calling on the government to find alternatives to run the financial affairs of the state, while they indicated that the recent OPEC agreement and allied countries will not lead to an improvement in oil prices due to lack of consumption World Energy as a result of the Corona pandemic.

Member of Parliamentary Finance Committee MP Ahmed Hama Rashid said in a statement to "Al-Sabah": "The recent OPEC meeting set the rate of reducing production by 10 million barrels per day, in order to lead to a full recovery of oil prices, but it may be partial improvement."

Global consumption

He added: "Today's prices are not determined by the quantities of production and consumption of crude oil in global markets, but there is a decline in global energy consumption due to the interruption of economic activity and the population movement of many countries of the world. As a result, the rate of consumption of fuel decreased, whether for cars, aircraft or large factories."

He pointed out that "68 percent of global oil production is converted into gasoline for fuel for cars, so therefore, in light of the Corona pandemic crisis, there is accumulation of crude oil in strategic tanks and in all national ships and tankers floating abroad", noting that "all OPEC attempts to reduce production, whether it is 10 million or more, to lead to a marked improvement in oil prices. " 

Supply and demand

For his part, the economist Salem Al-Bayati believes that "the drop in oil prices is not due to the process of supply and demand for oil, but rather as a result of the current conditions that rocked most of the world and represented by the Corona pandemic, which led to the absence of an economic situation in the world followed by the lack of use of energy resources and thus a decrease Prices have become normal under these conditions. "

Al-Bayati added in a statement to "Al-Sabah": "OPEC's attempts to set production ceilings or reduce the produced quantities may not lead to raising prices or returning them to what they were within the limits of 60 to 65 dollars per barrel, but the slight increase does not constitute anything for the producing countries." .

He pointed out that "most countries of the world are witnessing a cessation of industrial activity, which reduced the demand for energy," noting that "most industrialized countries have strategic storage and started using this storage under these conditions."

The Iraqi economy

He stressed that "the economies dependent on oil, including the Iraqi economy, will be significantly affected, whether under the OPEC agreement or without it, because prices will remain low until the crisis is over and life returns to normal."

He pointed out that there are financial obligations with the Iraqi state and in light of the lack of financial revenues, the Iraqi government must find alternatives to conduct the financial affairs of the state, such as salaries and others, in the coming days.

He stressed "the necessity of building an economic policy that looks to the future by diversifying sources of revenue by activating the economic, agricultural and industrial sectors to be an alternative to oil in the period of crises."

Production reduction

The OPEC and its allied countries announced last Thursday to reduce oil production by 10 million barrels per day for a period of two months.

The organization stated in a statement that it was decided during the meeting of OPEC member states and allied countries to reduce 10 million barrels per day from May 1, 2020 for a period of two months.

She added that the next OPEC + meeting will be held on June 10 to review the new agreements, indicating that oil production will drop to 8 million barrels per day "after two months" until next December and then to 6 million barrels from January 2021 to April 2022.    LINK

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Don961:  The Stock Market: It is proceeding with the development of electronic systems

Tuesday 14 April 2020 Baghdad / Al-Sabah 

The Iraqi Stock Exchange revealed its continuation of plans for developing electronic systems for the year 2020-2021.

A statement quoted by the market stated that, on the occasion of the anniversary of the launch of electronic trading and central deposit in the Iraq Stock Exchange for the first time in the history of Iraq in April 2009, the market’s Board of Governors confirms in its remote meeting using modern meeting methods to continue the plans for developing electronic systems for 2020 - 2021, including cooperation with Iraqi colleges and universities to implement the circulation and training simulation program for students. And the implementation of the remote trading program for investors.

The statement pointed out the important cooperation with the Securities Commission and the joint stock companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange to comply with the annual disclosure and provide audited financial statements for the joint stock companies, taking into account the due standards for the disclosure of material events.

He emphasized cooperation with the Securities Commission and the Central Bank of Iraq in issuing instructions and rules required to encourage investment and diversify securities to serve the directions of the Iraqi economy and society's need for types of investment and financial services.

And between, that the health crisis and the elimination of the global epidemic and the Corona pandemic in Iraq and in the world will soon be overcome with your patience and commitment, we thank the efforts of the health personnel in Iraq, the military cadre, the Baghdad Municipality and the Iraqi community for high response and awareness.

And he called the market to "practice your activity and investment activity in securities after lifting the curfew in accordance with the approved mechanisms and paying attention to periodic and annual disclosures and developing your future plans."  LINK