KTFA Members "News and Views" Thursday PM 3-12-2020
KTFA:
Samson: Former minister: Iraqi dinar on the way to "float"
11th March, 2020
The former minister, Amer Abdul-Jabbar, confirmed today, Wednesday, that the Iraqi dinar is on the way to floating, in light of the sharp decline in oil prices, while noting that employees should expect that during the coming days their salaries will be deducted.
"The continuation of monetary policies and the current government in the same contexts with the sharp decline in oil prices will be catastrophic, and the employee should expect to deduct his salary, perhaps for half, or exchange part of his salary every two months," noting that "the next stage may witness reduced employee salaries, deductions and taxes to reduce the budget deficit."
He added that "the Iraqi dinar is on its way to float (i.e. reduce its value), and the Iraqi government may have to increase the exchange rate of the dollar to 1250 dinars against the dollar to obtain additional funds estimated at 4 trillion dinars in the budget and this matter has advantages because it will allow encouraging the national industry because it will raise the value Imported goods and makes domestic competitive."
He added, "We are afraid of a government decision to reduce the price of the dinar against the dollar to 1300 or 1350 in the event that the drop in oil prices is catastrophic. This float will cause the price of commodities to rise and burden the citizens. The state may use it to reduce the budget deficit."
Abdul-Jabbar continued, "The government's decision to place customs and other exemptions to remove visa amounts with some neighboring countries has harmed Iraq and contributed to preventing the entry of important revenues to the state," noting that "since 2018, he warned of low oil prices in 2020".
He pointed out that "the advisory base available to the Prime Minister is not qualified to deal with major crises, especially those related to low oil prices." He added that "the current advisers are friends of the Prime Minister, one of them told me: whoever understands his work with specialists will not enable him to reach the Prime Minister." Because it will take the place of others."
And Abdul-Jabbar said, "The recent appointments made by the Prime Minister killed the state and burdened its finances, and there is a 200-square-meter department with 270 employees." LINK
Dan: If rates have been recalculated, recalculated, and recalculated again, and again.
If the International world knows about it and is ready, the stock exchange is ready for it
If world banks know about it and everyone is ready with the big 4 in control...
They have done a lot of work and constant ongoing meetings...
I can't believe all of this is for a float... the math doesn't add up to help Iraq at a float IMO
DELTA: The parliamentary economic and investment committee has put forward recommendations to avoid iraq's risk of a looming global economic crisis after the collapse in oil prices and the spread of a virus in most countries of the world.
The recommendations included:
1. Stop investment spending and reduce operational spending in all aspects of government activity immediately.
2. Agreement with creditors to postpone the repayment of Iraq's external and internal debt until the financial situation improves.
3. Obtaining state debt on mobile phone companies and telecommunications companies.
4- Stop making payments to investors for the electricity sector.
5. To strengthen government imports and to provide the Treasury with the value of exports of crude oil and border crossings.
6- Review the exchange rates of the Central Bank of Iraq in order to secure prices that do not affect the citizen and at the same time secure the salaries of state employees.
7- The formation of a high committee to enforce the management of Iraqi treasury funds and follow up the ministries, agencies and institutions that are required to pay the funds that are obliged to collect them to the public treasury.
8- Any other measures the government considers necessary in maintaining hard currency and preventing waste of spending.
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DELTA: Iraq today witnessed the holding of two meetings of the first economic ministerial council and the second a special meeting on the deterioration of oil prices, and discussed solutions to secure the salaries of employees and mitigate the effects of the fall of oil on the Iraqi economy
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Samson: Trump announces unprecedented decisions to tackle the Corona epidemic
12/3/2020 09:02:30
US President Donald Trump has suspended travel from Europe to the United States in an attempt to counter the spread of the Corona virus.
Trump announced in a televised speech on Wednesday that travel from Europe will be suspended for thirty days. But he said that "strong but necessary" restrictions would not apply to the UK, where 460 cases have been confirmed so far.
There are 1,135 confirmed HIV infections in the United States, with 38 deaths. "To prevent new cases from entering our territories, we will suspend all flights from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days," Trump said. "The new rules will come into effect at midnight on Friday."
Trump also urged Congress to pass tax relief measures in an effort to combat the impact of the spread of the Corona virus on the US economy. "I call on Congress to immediately provide Americans with a tax exemption," he said.
Officials say the risk of infection was lower for American citizens, but the country's general concern has worsened after confirming that the number of casualties has increased rapidly in recent weeks. A relentless containment effort was launched as the administration dispatched forces to New Rochelle, north of New York City, where the outbreak was believed to have originated. The National Guard will deliver food to some individuals who have been asked to isolate themselves there.
The governor of Washington state prevented major gatherings in a number of areas. The northwest state is the focal point of the disease in the United States, accounting for 24 deaths out of 38 in the country.
The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, to Congress, "The situation will get worse" and it depends on the possibility of containing the injured. Many Americans avoid doctor visits because of the costs they cannot afford. In addition to the lack of availability of paid sick leave is another reason for concern, and there are concerns about the number of examination devices available.
But Vice President Mike Pence, in charge of the team that coordinates the management of the crisis, he said he could examine any American, without restrictions, depending on the doctor's orders", although insurers have promised to cover. LINK
Samson: The US Congress closes the House and Senate due to Corona
17:18 - 12/03/2020
On Thursday, the US Congress decided to close the buildings of the House and Senate to the public until April, due to Corona, according to US media.
US President Donald Trump confirmed earlier Thursday that his country would ban travel to European countries, with the exception of Britain, starting Friday, and for 30 days to counter the spread of the Corona virus.
The European Union objected to US President Donald Trump's decision to ban European citizens from traveling to Washington DC due to the outbreak of the Corona virus, which has turned into a global pandemic. LINK
Cleitus: Can someone bring over Kim Clement's prophecy of Dow hitting 20,000... Thanks
Samson: How do central banks face the repercussions of the Corona virus?
11th March, 2020
As the new Corona virus continues to claim lives around the world, governments are striving to reduce the effects of the disease on their economies, by directing central banks to take a number of precautions.
The latest of these moves was from the Bank of England, which cut interest rates fifty basis points to interest rates one quarter of a percentage point, also revealed a reduction in capital requirements for banks, and the provision of a support package for medium and small companies that could reach 100 billion pounds. As for the US Federal Reserve, on March 3, it cut interest by 50 basis points, in a sudden step that has not been recorded since 2008, and this step came before its official meeting to be held on the seventeenth and eighteenth of March.
The Chinese central bank began these moves to face the consequences of the virus, in February, when it reduced the main lending rates for one year to about 4.05 percent, and the move was also preceded by reducing interest on medium-term lending rates. As the ramifications of the virus expanded in recent weeks, movements from other central banks, such as the Australian Central Bank, recorded a rate cut by about a quarter of a percentage point to 0.5 percent. The Canadian Central Bank also cut interest by about fifty basis points, confirming its readiness to do more reduction if required.
All eyes are directed towards the upcoming meetings and steps, especially the US Fed meeting, as markets are priced on the basis of a significant rate cut by the bank that could reach fifty or perhaps seventy five basis points. Everyone is also awaiting the European Central meeting, especially after the statements of its President Christine Lagarde, which indicated that Europe faces the risks of an economic shock similar to the global financial crisis in 2008 if the leaders do not move urgently to contain the repercussions of the Corona virus. LINK
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Samson: : A Saudi newspaper reveals an almost American-Iranian agreement to keep Abdul-Mahdi
09:41 - 12/03/2020
The Saudi newspaper "Al-Sharq Al-Awsat" revealed, Thursday, that there is a near-American-Iranian agreement to re-assign resigned Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi to head the government again. "The President of the Republic, Barham Salih, sent a message to the Shiite leaders involved in the matter of the nomination of a new prime minister during the past two days, a message urging them the importance of reaching a candidate no later than the next Monday, which is the end of the constitutional deadline," the newspaper said in a report seen by the information. It is two weeks to assign a new candidate. ”
The source added that “Saleh clearly affirmed that the end of the constitutional deadline means a constitutional violation that cannot be justified under any pretext, in addition to that article 76 of the constitution gives the President of the Republic the nomination of whom he deems appropriate, regardless of the largest number of parliamentary blocs”, noting that “President The republic, which the constitution offers this option, may resort to it because it takes into account two basic issues. The first is that the position is from the share of the Shiite component, and therefore it does not want to be in any way a party to this conflict, and the second it takes into account the status of the complex composition of the Iraqi parliament that represents Different Iraqi ethnic ingredients Religious and sectarian, and therefore any candidate can not gain confidence from within Parliament unless it is agreed upon within the Parliament itself, at a time when these blocs are sharply divided because of the repercussions of the political situation.
The newspaper pointed out that "among the options offered in the event that a new candidate for the post was not reached, after the apology of the former commissioner, Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi, to reassign the resigned prime minister, Adel Abdul-Mahdi , in light of the near-US-Iranian consensus."
Don961: Iraq ... a country of lost opportunities (1)
- 8 Hours Ago
If we see a movie, from its end to its beginning, we will be able to discover the reasons that shaped the fate of its heroes; this is also the case with individuals and societies on the ground.
When we look closely at the structural crisis that exists in Iraq now, we discover that the reason lies in the failure of the political system established by the United States after its invasion of Iraq in 2003, by providing primary services to a people whose population today reaches 40 million, despite the huge wealth that came from exporting oil , And lifting international sanctions imposed on him since Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990.
This failure was only due to the occupier imposing a system similar to the United States system on a country whose people just got out of the surgical operation room and is still drugged, after absolute authoritarian rule, during which he knew three major wars, during which more than a million Iraqis were killed, and he lived an economic blockade that lasted for more A decade ago, it was sufficient to destroy the education and health systems in which Iraq has achieved, and through a relentless accumulation that began since the establishment of its state in 1921, a qualitative leap compared to many countries of the third world.
Those who left school behind as children to help their families during the years of the blockade will become fighters in the militias that emerged after the dissolution of the military and security services by the American civilian governor, Paul Bremer.
Just as the British occupiers imposed a system similar to the British political system after the establishment of the State of Iraq, during the years of the mandate that ended in 1932, American occupiers imitated the version of the system prevailing in the United States, taking into consideration the three main components: Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds. This means avoiding imposing a presidential ruling as is the case in their country and accepting a parliamentary system in which the executive authority is in the hands of the Prime Minister, while the presidency of the republic is honorable and ceremonial.
Just as the British established a constitutional monarchy based on the separation of the three powers: judicial, executive and legislative, and members of the last authority are elected every four years, and there is a public press a fourth authority, the Americans repeated the same version with a republican system this time, as in the United States, from Without taking into account the complex demographics of this country.
It can be said that the occupiers, British and American, did not take into consideration two facts: The first is that the democratic system in the West came (often) after the formation of a strong, effective and integrated state in its activities, functions and services. Without this, any country will turn into chaos, if an investigation enters The task of establishing a real democratic system with the task of building the modern state. The second is that people in countries of racial, tribal, and sectarian diversity, such as Iraq, do not vote in any elections, whether local or national, on the basis of their personal interests and those of their families, but rather on the basis of their affiliations that were born with them, from religious to racial to tribal to ethnic Therefore, the elected people will not represent individuals on a national basis at all. This evolving pattern of political system produced multiple organic crises during the monarchy and the era that followed the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Likewise, there are similarities in both cases: both of the new systems were established on the rubble of an oppressive authoritarian regime, in which there is no response to the opposition other than killing, torture, and displacement. It is in the spirit of dominating the nations and other societal entities of the ruling Turkish nationalist elite, and following the methods of excessive violence and genocide if necessary against it, and what were the executions carried out by Jamal Al-Saffah, the governor of Syria, against Syrian and Lebanese intellectuals after mock trials during 1915 and 1916 in Damascus Beirut is only an example of the nature of Ottoman rule, even after the removal of the religious veneer and the replacement of purely Turkish nationalism in its place.
This is also the case in Iraq until 2003, as the iron fist of President Saddam Hussein, with his “revolutionary” courts and his intelligence and security services, was on the lookout for every dissenting voice.
After 1921, the press flourished in Iraq, although the illiteracy rate was very high. After 2003 magazines and newspapers reached a record, and in both periods criticism of power became a right recognized by the constitution.
This is also the case with the ruling elite in both phases: after 1921 King Faisal I relied on the Iraqi officers who defected from the Ottoman army and joined the Arab revolution that was led by Faisal bin Al Hussein at the start of World War I, and after France's occupation of Syria in 1920, and King Faisal’s exit From them, these officers returned with him to Iraq and contributed to the establishment of the young state with him.
As for the new ruling elite after 2003, most of its leaders have lived in exile since the late 1970s, some of whom were in Iran, others in Syria, and others in European countries, most notably Britain and France.
The difference between the two elites lies in two elements:
The new ruling elite in Iraq in 1921, including King Faisal himself, had a national orientation, seeking to build bridges with popular components, and the inclusion of its representatives in governance, despite the conservative position of the Shiite authority on the new system.
With the advent of the fifties the political map, whether in relation to the opposition or power, had changed dramatically, it became beyond the confessional and ethnic boundaries. The last prime minister of an Iraqi government that was formed in the royal era was a Kurd, Ahmed Mukhtar Baban, while Abdul Karim al-Azri, a Shiite, was the Minister of Finance for the Hashemite Union. This situation applies to the opposition as well.
The division between the representatives of the Authority and the opposition was based on the position of the two international blocs fighting during the Cold War that prevailed after the end of World War II until the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, and on the position of the treaty linking Britain to Iraq.
As for the political elite that came with the British occupation and the protection of its soldiers, it was mostly loaded with a sectarian or ethnic orientation (for Kurdish leaders). Patriotism: As for the Kurdish leaders, the Kurdish state’s project was their primary concern and ensuring that the largest possible area of Iraq’s body is extracted to be included in their future separate entity.
It is as if the national project for the ruling elite that the American occupation brought about is more than an end in itself, as was the case in 1921.
Therefore, quotas came in the formulation of all state institutions to embody this sectarian-ethnic yearning.
However, the eight years in which Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, leader of the Shiite "Islamic Dawa" party ruled between 2006 and 2014, demonstrated the seriousness of this approach, which led to the emergence of a failed Iraqi state in a well-deserved way. As the ministries have turned into isolated islands from one another, they primarily serve the interests of the minister and his work team, which is mostly family members, relatives, and friends.
As if the sectarian-ethnic card is itself a means of personal benefit and forms cooperative mafias among them that includes these three components themselves: Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds.
With the loss of the bureaucratic mechanism that the Iraqi state has been following since its foundation, which is a local version of the British government apparatus, the devastation, unemployment, electricity crises, and others have deepened day by day.
This is in contrast to what happened after 1921 from the rapid growth of the structures of the emerging state and the immersion of a large number of political leaders in playing a positive role in its development. We find that what happened during the eight years in which Maliki ruled, the opposite. The explosion of civil strife that claimed the lives of a large number of the people of Baghdad without any reason, except for the sectarian background, then this period ended with the occupation of a third of Iraq by the terrorist organization "ISIS". The main reason was that the military commanders assigned to defend the country were not qualified, because they were chosen, not on the basis of real professional standards but rather on a purely sectarian basis.
The other difference between the two occupations is that the former faced widespread popular rejection when he wanted to impose direct rule on Iraq after the British forces entered Baghdad in 1917, and this consensus united the city people, clansmen, and elders, and the revolution of 1920 culminated in this unity in rejecting the British project, which was intended Iraq joined his administration in India.
As for the American occupation of Iraq in 2003, its soldiers faced a strong resistance since their first breach of the Iraqi borders, which they were able to eliminate thanks to their sophisticated weapons and the decisive role of American aviation, but the occupation of Iraq cost them a lot later. .
Another important difference between the two countries that came in the wake of a foreign occupation of Iraq: In the first case, King Faisal I (known for his wisdom and charisma) benefited from the British presence and the treaty linking his country to the United Kingdom in protecting the borders, when the number of members of the Iraqi army did not exceed hundreds, Although he would later seek to abolish it, thanks to British military power, Turkey ceased to demand Mosul and other parts of northern Iraq, and Iran ceased to interfere in Iraqi affairs, despite its insistence to take the greater part of the eastern side of the Shatt al-Arab. With her p Z border in 1937 when Iraq signed an agreement with a defined distance of 8 miles east of the Shatt al-Arab from the Iranian city of Abadan.
But after the second occupation that followed the establishment of the Iraqi state more than eighty years, the number of militias associated with Iran increased and the Iranian influence increased through many political leaders who stayed for a long time in Tehran after their escape from the oppression of Saddam Hussein's regime, and some of them fought against the Iraqi army during the Iraqi war. Iran between 1980 and 1988.
The result was the return of Iraq as an ideal arena for the struggle between: the United States and Iran, as was the case during the five centuries following the fall of Baghdad in the hands of the Mongols in 1258.
The other difference between the two countries is that the former rushed to take Iraq from the Middle Ages to the world of modernity by immersing in building and lighting roads, sending missions to the West, expanding education dramatically, and forming a professional national army capable of protecting the country without the assistance of another country. As for the second country, it was The main concern was the personal benefit prevailing over the new ruling elite and the exploitation of the ethnic sectarian card to its fullest extent. As a result, the country gradually declined backward, unemployment widened and accumulated ruin in it.
Nevertheless, hope has emerged that the country’s dying situation has passed with Haider al-Abadi’s coming to power, despite his affiliation with the “Islamic Call” party, his educational and professional background set him up to be a good bureaucracy who can revive the former Iraqi state without the oppression of its security institutions However, Iraq missed a golden opportunity to rise when the last elections in 2018 were boycotted by more than eighty percent, and this led to the failure of its list to win the majority of votes in the Iraqi parliament and the return of the sectarian parties linked to Iran in one way or another to power.
How lost this golden opportunity looks similar to other opportunities in the recent past, the verification of which would have avoided the country this grim reality that Iraqis live today.
Loay Abdul Ilah
Independent Arabic LINK