KTFA Members "News and Views" Thursday Afternoon 10-17-19
KTFA:
Samson: Oil prices are falling due to signs of a significant increase in US inventories
17th October, 2019
Oil prices fell 1 percent on Thursday after sector data showed a larger-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, although losses were curbed by comments by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin on a US-China trade deal
Brent crude futures were down 57 cents, or 1 percent, at $ 58.85 a barrel by 0629 GMT
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 56 cents, or 1 percent, at $ 52.80 a barrel
US crude oil inventories rose 10.5 million barrels to 432.5 million barrels in the week ending October 11, according to the weekly report of the American Petroleum Institute, published ahead of official inventory data due on Thursday
Analysts estimate US oil inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels last week
This comes amid concerns about the global economy and thus the demand for oil, while data from the United States revealed that retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in September. This follows earlier data that revealed modest job growth and service sector activities
But hopes of a possible trade deal between the United States and China have helped reduce the drop in oil prices after Mnuchin said US and Chinese trade negotiators were working on the text of the first phase of a trade deal for the two heads of state to sign next month LINK
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Samson: Brexit: Britain, EU reach agreement
2019/10/17 13:53
The European Union and the UK negotiating teams reached an agreement to leave Britain before the European leaders' meeting in Brussels.
"We have reached a great agreement to regain control," Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in a tweet. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said in a tweet that "if there is a will, there will be an agreement, and we have a fair and balanced agreement." Both sides were revising the legal text of the agreement, but it still needs approval by the British and European parliaments.
The DUP questioned the agreement, saying it could not support it. The Northern Ireland Party issued a statement earlier in which it said it could not support the agreement, "in its current state," adding after Johnson's announcement that the statement was still in place. LINK
Samson: Britain and EU reach new Brexit deal
17th October, 2019
The British Prime Minister and the President of the European Commission announced that they have reached a new agreement on Brexit
In a tweet on the social networking site "Twitter" Johnson said on Thursday: "We have reached a new agreement on the Brexit, to regain control of things
He added: "Now parliament must complete the Brexit on Saturday so that we can move to other priorities such as the cost of living and national health services and crimes of violence and our environment
"When there is a will, there is an agreement, and now we have an agreement," Jean-Clon Juncker said
Juncker described the agreement as fair and balanced, for both the EU and the UK, and “testifies to our pledges to find solutions
Britain is due to leave the European Union on October 31 LINK
ChrisC: Better sell your euros. Won't be long until they are a collector's item. With England gone the rest will collapse soon, IMO.
Mr.Harfax: I'll be surprised if Germany doesn't pull pin next. Never understood why these two countries opted for this deal in the first place. Globalism is a fantastic concept for developing countries but how could they not realize it would come at the expense of what they had already developed?
ChrisC: I am by no means an EU expert, but it may be like that game Jenga where you pull out one critical piece and it all collapses. Greece, Italy and Spain already wanted out so that will be easy. As I saw it Germany was the one that was somehow benefiting from these other less productive members staying. It was an absurd idea in the first place centered around destroying national identity, religion and race. I listened to one of the main individuals responsible for the formation of the EU give a talk. I can't remember his name, only that he was Australian. He said the man of the Europe's future would be a mongrel of all races, he would have no regional identity and there would be no specific religion associated with him. I knew eventually it would collapse. You can't have one group pulling and the other group riding. Makes the pulling team get testy after awhile.
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TIM: Something that has been in the back of my mind since the news of new demostrations on the 25th of this month.
IMO we are closer to our speculative investment ending. why do i say that? because imo the central bank of iraq is going to save this country from demise and destruction. like frank has told us over and over again this must not fail with the citizens.
Well imo if they dont get this done before the 25th they have failed the citizens, and all that trust from the citizens to the cbi will be the demise to the cbi imo of course.
All those years of putting this project together and now this project nearing its completion has got to tell you imo that the cbi is NOT going to fail the citizens.
They promised purchasing power to the citizens and what else comes along with this purchasing power? imo thousands of job openings.
The cbi knows this imo, and they are the ones that imo are going to save this country from mayhem to finally prosper, and imo have to get this done by the 25th of this month.
Because imo, if they dont, im putting away my dinars once again, because imo when will be the next opportunity? my guess a very long time. have a blessed day everyone. lets get this done.
IMO THE CBI WILL NOT FAIL ITS CITIZENS
Mr.Harfax: Tim, I tend to agree but IMO I think this goes beyond the borders of Iraq. I don't believe in coincidences and find it hard to believe the timing of Brexit, China/US, the situation with the Fed Bail outs, the release of CNN corruption, the upcoming FISA, etc. all coming together at the same time as the Iraq deal is just a matter of great timing. While Iraq no doubt needs to succeed with their citizens the timing also needs to work with the world. IMO
GodLover: I completely agree that if the CBI does not comply, the riots on the 25th will be a huge disaster imo. The thing I am looking for now is the passing of the budget.....hopefully! The article claimed that it will pass easily when voted on.....however the lies flow like water over there imo.
LoneStarCowboy: I agree with you both. If I may interject my opinion, Frank has expressed "Timing", emphatically! Whose timing? Iraq's? Or could it be President Trump's and the UST's?
The CBI is doing an excellent job of showing examples of the New LDs via other countries changing of currencies that will mirror Iraq's LDs.
As Walkingstick has stated, in his opinion, Iraq is having to educate the citizens on a 2nd Grade Level, Show and Tell.
Look at these countries' LDs, this is what yours will look like. Oh, and they will coexist with those notes they are replacing, for a time.
Next, in my Cowboy opinion, the CBI will show the citizens the pictures of the LDs, in-depth description of all the security features, how to use them, etc...on a 2nd Grade Level. How do you teach on a 2nd Grade Level? Repetition! In Iraq's case, massive repetition utilizing every source imaginable, with the caveat to come into the banks, in the not so distant future, to receive their new reality of a new currency, coupled with a new stronger purchasing power.
I have asked myself if I were an Iraqi citizen what would I do? Well, I would be like "Lawrence of Arabia" riding my horse as fast as I could, to ride into my new reality, my new future and a new life.
All in my humble Cowboy opinion. But hey, maybe this old dusty cowboy hat is just to tight and has slanted my opinion.
I am excited to hear what Frank's opinion on this. Smiles to ya, LSC
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Mr.Harfax: The following is of course in my opinion. These are my thoughts and my thoughts alone.
Earlier this week Frank asked if anyone would like to bet on his 7 to 11 prediction. Strangely, no one jumped at his offer. Given the current window and the slow release of information on the LDs I have this strong gut feeling Iraq are further ahead than in the process than we (i.e. the general public) are meant to know at this time. I accept we will know when it’s our time but
The TIMING of yesterday’s discussion on Belarus sent up flags for me. Why drill this point home with such enthusiasm? It could be a coincidence, or it could be done with a purpose (i.e. convey in-depth knowledge without discussing the actual event); and
Yesterday we contacted our Dinar dealer in the North (i.e. North of the US) and for the first time in this CAN kicking process we were put on a waiting list to buy as they were sold out. This has never been an issue (even in the recent past). Once again it could just be a coincidence.
Of course, my gut could just be unsettled from too many cookies but cookies have never been a problem for my gut.
Samson: For the second day in a row, demonstrators block the Kirkuk-Erbil road in full
17th October, 2019
A local source in the province of Kirkuk, Thursday, cut off the road linking with Erbil completely by demonstrators.
The source told the reporter / information / that "for the second day cut demonstrators Kirkuk-Erbil road against the attempt to hand over the headquarters of the headquarters of the joint operations in Kirkuk to the Kurdistan Democratic Party in full."
"The police chief threatened to open the road by force," the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
A number of demonstrators on Wednesday protested against the attempt to hand over the headquarters of joint operations to the Kurdistan Democratic Party. LINK
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Iggy: Oct 17 (Reuters) - Maryland Congressman Elijah Cummings, the Democratic chairman of the U.S. House Oversight and Reform Committee, has died aged 68, his office said on Thursday.
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Samson: Washington Post: Stability in Iraq is an urgent necessity for the global oil market
16th October, 2019
The Iraqi oil industry is the lifeblood of the government and an important entry point in the global supply chain, so any disruptions caused by the unrest could have a continuing impact on the wider market. The port of Basra exported 3.5 million barrels of oil per day last September, according to the accounts of «Tanker Trackers.com» (TankerTrackers.com), which represents 90% of Iraq's total oil exports.
(Iraq is the second largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OPEC). These exports alone generate nearly $ 213 million each day to Iraq, according to Tankers Trackers, without which the government would not be able to function.
Heavy oil is particularly valuable in the current market and is an important source of crude oil for China, India, the Netherlands, South Korea and Venezuela. In the United States, heavy crude from Iraq helps offset the loss of imports from Venezuela, which US refineries have stopped importing because of sanctions against Caracas.
Iraq is also an important source of petroleum products, many of which are produced in Basra's refineries. Iraq's role in the refined oil market is now more important, with Saudi Arabia's ability to produce petroleum products weak after last month's attacks.
In fact, Saudi Arabia is currently importing Iraqi petroleum products to fill the gaps left by the attacks on oil facilities.
In the oil market, which has just lost the protection of Saudi Arabia from excess capacity, disrupting Iraqi oil production for any period of time could pressure prices. Iraq is not Saudi Arabia, and has no alternative solutions and spare capacity within its regime, to compensate for interruptions caused by sabotage or unrest.
Traders and market observers should closely follow Iraq and the evolving situation there in the coming period. Any protests could easily and quickly affect Iraq's oil supplies, and thus pose a greater long-term threat to global supplies. LINK
BillA: Can you say Cha-ching US pressure to go along with Citizen pressure. Price of Oil is on the drop because of US reserves being put in play.