KTFA Members "News and Views" Friday Afternoon 2-28-2020

KTFA:

Don961:  What after Sunday ... a legal expert clarifies Allawi's fate and options for Saleh 

Time: 02/20/28 12:09:37

{Baghdad: Al Furat News} A legal expert revealed the fate of the Prime Minister-designate, Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi, after his constitutional deadline to form his cabinet was set for next Sunday.

"Constitutionally, the President of the Republic assigns another candidate to form the ministry in the event that the Allawi Ministry does not gain confidence in the parliament session tomorrow, Saturday, according to paragraph V of Article 76 of the constitution, and this is most likely after having Most of the Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish blocs agreed not to vote and give the Prime Minister-designate confidence as long as these parliamentary blocs did not take their share of the ministries, "he said.

He pointed out that, "Although the candidates for the ministry represent all components, these blocs require the ministers to be the ones that nominate them, and each block has its share of ministers, that is, party partisanship, not sectarian quotas that the prime minister took into consideration. Rather, the blocs request that the ministers be subordinate to them.

They nominated them, not the prime minister, and so the parliamentary quotas were behind the removal of Allawi and his project to establish a government that is far from quotas, while respecting the components by representing them in the ministry he prepared. "

Harb pointed out that "the failure to grant Allawi confidence after the vote would entail constitutionally assuming the President of the Republic to appoint another candidate and note that in this case there are no more parliamentary blocs, but rather an absolute authority of the President of the Republic (Barham Saleh), an absolute authority in the nomination to head the Personal Ministry that he deems necessary without Relationship to the more numerous bloc or the fewer bloc, so the issue is subject to the discretion of the President of the Republic only without restriction or condition in assigning anyone to exclude Allawi because the constitution decides another candidate and the other is not the former Allawi and this constitutes his government and presents it to Parliament to request that he be given confidence.

The House of Representatives, held postponed its special session was scheduled to give confidence and vote on the cabin Prime Minister - designate Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi because of continuing differences between the blocs Alssayash.anthy

Ammar al – Masoudi   LINK

Sawco: I have a question,, if you please...…….I do not see anywhere in this article,, that Saleh will, or has to option to dissolve the current parliament... I thought that was what we were looking for,, if MTA, and his cabinet did not get a vote of confidence by March 2...  Would appreciate any, and all thoughts.....

2Cents:  IMO.....Only Parliament can vote to dissolve itself..........I don't know why we would hope for parliament to dissolve.....We need "Security and Stability" do we not?........No GOI and no Parliament is certainly not stability.....It is bad enough with no GOI.....

Additionally, it is logical to conclude that a GOI is required to formally "Accept Article VIII Obligations"...No GOI, No Article VIII and thus no RI unless the IMF just bypasses the formalities and says by Iraq's actions they have complied with and Accepted Article VIII....

IMO.....If Allawi's GOI is not given a vote of confidence, Saleh will have 15 days to appoint another PM designate who will then have 30 days to put a cabinet together to be passed......

I, for one, certainly don't want to see any more delay.....Parliament is not going anywhere until the next election (Unless the Protestors start taking actions as Chris C has suggested)....

IMO, we NEED the GOI of Allawi voted in as soon as possible.  If not, WE certainly don't expect the RI.......perhaps the RV/RD, as WS reportedly said it was already to occur twice this year, but certainly no RI anytime soon.............Although, the IMF could be threatening to RI whether they RD/RV or not......that would force the hand of the CBI.....WE believe this is not the case......

WE believe Allawi is threatening to "Accept" thus shutting off the money flow to Iran, Hezbollah and the corrupt politicians which is the biggest reason for so much opposition.......

IMO....The pressure is on (based on WS reports) as the USD use is on the clock........They are running out of time to demonstrate stability and officially accept Article VIII obligations.....

Prior (or simultaneous) to that, they must RD/RV or the expense to the CBI will be immense....They can be RI'ed at 1190 but it certainly is not the plan and certainly not what the CBI wants to occur.....

Hence, why I say the IMF could be threatening to RI without the CBI doing a RD/RV but I don't think so.....The IMF and Trump are not Best Buds either.....

IMO......Realize what we are seeing......the CBI and Trump are antagonistic to each other just like every other Central Bank in the World....They HATE Trump!!!!.....however, Trump, through the UST, controls the flow of USD to the CBI........

If this flow is stopped and there is no RI, the country's economy will implode as they will have no ability to pay for imports and limited ability to conduct business.  This almost assuredly forces the hand of the IMF to RI Iraq.....

If the flow is stopped and the RI occurs at 1190, the expense to the CBI will be intolerable as trillions of IQD will flow out of the country and the pressure will be on the CBI to flood the market with IQD including the 3 zeros and the 50,000 and 100,000...

Can you see how the best and only play Trump can make to force both the CBI to RD/RV and the country to gain stability and formally Accept Article VIII Obligations is to stop the flow of the USD???   Masterful!!!!

The clock is ticking......26 and counting!!!!

BlaqueBeauty:  Imo I thought I heard mr Frank vote does not matter because reality cabinet already done per eddy from Iraq tv MTA speaking to the citizens... and the movement behind the scenes we are not aware of, lately the cc/ub2b be beyond the what it's people has been posted.   Imo it's just the corrupt holding up and trying to find the next hold up in the middle of the delays already out there

2Cents:  IMO.....Eddie stated Allawi has "completed his cabinet".......This is true!!!!.....Now it has to be voted by Parliament and at least 50% plus 1 must be approved in order to give confidence to Allawi to be PM.....No Parliament vote ---> No Confidence and under the Constitution, Allawi is done within 30 days of being appointed as PM-designate....

Mahdi is still PM and the Mahdi GOI is still in charge of conducting the affairs of the country.... Mahdi says he will not remain after 3/02 as that is 30 days since Saleh appointed a PM- Designate....Some argue that he must remain as PM of his Caretaker government until a new PM is given confidence......As of today, Mahdi and his entire Cabinet remain.......If Allawi gets at least 50% plus 1 voted in by Parliament, Mahdi AND HIS GOI are gone.....   IMO

2Cents:  Just so all understand.....I believe the Allawi GOI will be approved prior to the deadline and certainly hope it does......It may push to Sunday but I think and hope it will get done one way or another....

This all came about as comments were made that we don't want a vote to happen and Parliament dissolved.....If this would occur, new elections will have to occur prior to a new PM being appointed.....Allawi will be out....Saleh takes over everything if Mahdi is correct that he can disband his GOI 3/2...Personally, I believe Mahdi and his GOI would have to remain and continue in "caretaker" status as now or there would be no cabinet and the country would be in total Constitutional crisis and even basic services would implode.....

I, for one, certainly don't want to see this or wait for this all to occur as that would almost guarantee 2021 for a RD/RV ----> RI at the earliest........

Personally, WE hope and expect the RD/RV this weekend if Allawi is given a vote of confidence Saturday....In fact, I was hoping the Thursday vote would be pushed to Saturday.....All IMO of course

In our words:  The Study is over!!!!  The Clock is ticking!!!!!  Get it ALL done or implode!!!!

Don't forget, there is also a 45 day deadline on exemptions from sanctions on Iran that expires approximately 3/30/20 just to add more pressure....  Go Trump!!!!

Don961:  Al-Fateh: Allawi's cabin will pass tomorrow   02/28/2020  LINK

MilitiaMan:   They sound confident in passing to the vote tomorrow. Probably so, as it has already been sorted to the degree or at a level of confidence they have in them passing this tomorrow is very strong that it will be passed. They are going to have a high level of security (FOGGING) in the parliament. They are going to broadcast the event to the public. Thereby, everyone can see who is for and who is against the citizens demands. Being on the wrong side of the fence can have harsh consequences. As we have seen in recent past, housing being burned down, bulldozers, etc.. They clearly are standing up to the political pressure and being public about it may be the edge Allawi has in his favor! imo ~ MM

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Don961:  The banking system and economic crises

Friday 28 February 2020

Samir Al-Nassery

 The government and private banks have been able to contribute to financial and monetary stability and the conduct of banking business in light of the demonstrations and peaceful popular mobility that started since October 1 of last year compared to the confusion of banking work in other countries that have already passed the same conditions or are still going through similar conditions.

This confirms the soundness of the policies and procedures set by the Central Bank in the application of monetary policy and careful implementation by banks in the application of what was stated in its strategy for the years (2016-2020) and the structural, structural and technical developments that contributed to the emergence of prominent features to achieve financial and monetary stability, 

This reinforced the support provided by the central bank and banks to the national economy during economic and financial crises, which is a bright spot and a success experience in a country that is going through difficult and complicated circumstances and a historical stage that is the most difficult to face Economic challenges .

Efforts, wise policies, rational monetary policy applications, and developmental measures for the banking sector in stimulating economic growth, financial inclusion, structural and institutional building and optimal investment in human capital have led to important achievements, most notably: maintaining inflation at a rate not exceeding 2% and at a level of foreign reserves within rates higher than Acceptable ratios according to international standards, as the foreign reserves of Iraq amounted to more than 80 billion Dollars. 

And building the banking sector organizationally, supervisory and control, and establishing new units within the organizational structures of banks such as compliance, combating money laundering and terrorist financing, managing credit and operational risks, issuing the Money Laundering Law 39 of 2015, forming the Anti-Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Council, developing payment systems, applying all retail and mobile payment operations, and establishing the exchange NBK and working to implement international standards in financial reports in line with the principle of transparency, disclosure and the composition of the Payments Council

The Iraqi added to the efforts exerted on a daily basis to stimulate financial inclusion processes and form the Supreme Committee for Financial Inclusion and work to draw up a national strategy for financial inclusion and focus on the project of localizing employee salaries for the purpose of raising the percentage of financial inclusion for the population who do not have accounts in the banking system and for the purpose of restoring confidence in the banking sector

Also the establishment of the Deposit Guarantee Company with the aim of raising the savings rate at banks and reducing the percentage of hoarding in homes and thus stimulating the economy by activating investment and bank financing and taking regulatory and structural measures and introducing the deposit center in the market Iraq Securities and the establishment of a national Fiduciary information center .

The above positive aspects of our banks confirm that they still need government support to implement all previously issued decisions of the Council of Ministers and the Economic Affairs Committee which unfortunately did not 

It is activated by the concerned authorities.

I also believe that banks should take care of overcoming self-failures and constraints that have led to poor customer confidence in their banking dealings; the intention here is troubled banks and diagnosed by the Central Bank and the Association of Iraqi private banks and citizens.    LINK