Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Wednesday Morning 7-8-26

Oil Prices Pressure Iraq’s Foreign Reserves, Experts Warn

2026-07-07 19:36    Shafaq News- Baghdad   Iraq's foreign currency reserves have fallen 12 percent in two years and remain at risk of further decline if oil prices drop below $60 per barrel, according to experts who spoke to Shafaq News on Tuesday. The reserves stood at $97.8 billion in late April 2026, down from $111.7 billion at the end of 2023, driven by the government's heavy dependence on oil revenues rather than diversified income streams.

Political science professor Najm Abdul Tarish warned that if oil prices remain between $55 and $60 per barrel, while government spending stays elevated, Iraq's foreign reserves could come under pressure.

“Funds are unlikely to decline sharply in the near term but could gradually erode if oil income continues to fall without meaningful economic reforms,” he told Shafaq News, suggesting that protecting them requires diversifying the economy, increasing non-oil returns, and encouraging investment and domestic production rather than relying solely on oil, Tarish argued.

According to former CBI Director General Mahmoud Dagher, the impact of foreign currency reserves on ordinary Iraqis is indirect, and most felt when speculation drives up demand for US dollars or confidence in the market weakens.

He said rumors about the economy or Iraq's oil exports often prompt citizens and traders to buy dollars, increasing demand and pushing up exchange rates on the parallel market. Because Iraq relies heavily on imports, any rise in the dollar's value ultimately increases the cost of imported goods and weakens the purchasing power of the dinar.

Speaking to Shafaq News, expert Mohammed Al-Hassani noted that the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) does not use its holdings to finance the state budget. Instead, the funds are used to maintain monetary stability, support the Iraqi dinar's exchange rate, secure US dollars for imports, and strengthen investor confidence in the country's economy. He added that part of the reserves is invested in safe, highly liquid financial instruments held by international institutions to preserve their value and ensure they remain readily available when needed.

Despite the concerns, the Prime Minister's Financial Adviser, Mudhir Mohammed Saleh, told Shafaq News that the CBI's foreign currency reserves remain within safe levels under international standards, covering about 12 months of Iraq's imports compared with the global benchmark of three months. “The reserves give the Central Bank significant room to intervene in the foreign exchange market and support the dinar, while noting that exchange rate stability also depends on oil prices, government revenues, the efficiency of the banking sector, and confidence in the economy.

Read more: Iraqi experts divided on reviving the oil-reliant economy

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Oil-prices-pressure-Iraq-s-foreign-reserves-experts-warn

Oil Jumps Nearly 2% After US Strikes On Iran

2026-07-07 23:42    Shafaq News  Oil prices climbed nearly 2% on ​Wednesday after the U.S. military launched airstrikes against Iran and reimposed crude sales sanctions, raising fears their fragile ‌truce was unravelling and Middle East supplies could be disrupted again.

The U.S. airstrikes were in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command said on Tuesday. The strait is a key waterway for the transport of Middle Eastern ​oil shipments to wider markets.

Brent crude futures gained $1.38, or 1.9%, to $75.54 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate ​crude climbed to $71.81 a barrel, up $1.37, or 1.9% at 0128 GMT.

Both benchmarks rose about 3% on ⁠Tuesday after the U.S. revoked the general licence authorising the sale of Iranian crude following the Iranian attacks.

"The current conflagration ​is a reminder to the market of how fragile passage through the Strait still is," said Saul Kavonic, head of research ​at MST Marquee.

"This presents a contrary indicator to the prevailing sentiment that the market could be flooded into oversupply, which may scare some of the record short positioning to cover," he said, adding that if tensions persist and traffic through the waterway remains below 50% of ​pre-war levels, the resulting supply constraints could support higher oil prices.

After the U.S. and Iran signed their truce agreement ​last month, oil prices tumbled back to pre-war levels and traders amassed large short positions in oil futures, or bets that prices would fall further.

Expectations ‌of ⁠a wave of pent-up Middle East supply coming onto the market caused the price declines.

Iran did not take responsibility for the vessel attacks but Qatar blamed Iran for them, including one on a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, which reported being struck by a drone that caused a fire in its engine room.

A Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker, believed to be the supertanker Wedyan, was also ​damaged off Oman, maritime security ​sources said. The cause ⁠was not immediately clear.

The attacks renewed concerns about tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried cargoes equal to about one-fifth of global energy supply before the war began in February.

Iran ​is asserting its control of the Strait and has ordered ships to use a route ​closer to its ⁠coast rather than one nearer to Oman, which also borders the waterway. The U.S. insists the waterway must remain free to all as it was before the conflict started.

Since the war started, nations have drawn down their inventories to make up for ⁠the supply ​shortfall. U.S. crude oil inventories fell again last week, market sources said on Tuesday, ​citing data from the American Petroleum Institute. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected crude stockpiles to decline by about 2.4 million barrels in the week ended July ​3. 

(REUTERS) https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Oil-jumps-nearly-2-after-US-strikes-on-Iran

Basrah Crudes Plunge Despite Global Futures Rally

2026-07-08 02:30    Shafaq News- Basrah   Iraq's Basrah crude led losses among OPEC grades on Wednesday, plunging more than 25%, even as major global benchmarks moved higher.

Basrah Heavy crude dropped to $45.37 per barrel, losing $15.39, or 25.33%, while Basrah Medium crude fell to $47.47 per barrel, down $10.39, or 17.96%.

Brent crude futures gained $1.92, or 2.6%, to $76.08 a barrel at 0400 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $1.82, or 2.6%, to $72.26 a barrel.

UAE's Murban crude advanced 3.39% to $71.31 per barrel, while Saudi Arabia's Arab Light crude tumbled 13.70% to $65.31, and Kuwait Export Blend dropped 13.13% to $69.01. OPEC's basket data showed a wider divergence between futures contracts and physical crude grades tied to pricing differentials across crude types.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Basrah-crudes-plunge-despite-global-futures-rally

EIA: Iraq's Crude Oil Exports To US Fall In June

2026-07-08 06:46 Shafaq News- Washington  Iraq's crude oil exports to the United States fell to 1.35 million barrels in June, down from 1.625 million barrels in May, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

EIA reported that Iraq exported an average of 107,000 barrels per day during the first week of June, exports fell to zero in the second week, recovered to an average of 71,000 barrels per day in the third week, and returned to zero in the fourth week.

The volatile pattern reflects ongoing disruptions to Iraqi crude shipments amid regional instability. Iraq ranked eighth globally among countries exporting crude to the United States in June, behind Canada, Venezuela, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia.

Among Arab oil exporters to the US, Iraq held second place. Saudi Arabia led with 2.04 million barrels for the month, while Libya ranked third among Arab nations with 1.11 million barrels.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/EIA-Iraq-s-crude-oil-exports-to-US-fall-in-June

USD/IQD Exchange Rates Climbs In Baghdad, Erbil

2026-07-08 04:05    Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil    The US dollar rose in Baghdad and Erbil on Wednesday, trading around 153,500 Iraqi dinars per $100.

According to a Shafaq News market survey, the dollar traded at 153,650 dinars per $100 at Baghdad's Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya central exchanges, up from 153,000 dinars on Tuesday's trading.

In the Iraqi capital, exchange shops sold the dollar at 154,000 dinars and bought it at 153,000 dinars.

In Erbil, the dollar traded higher, with selling prices reaching 153,700 dinars per $100 and buying prices at 153,600 dinars.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/USD-IQD-exchange-rates-climbs-in-Baghdad-Erbil-7