Iraq Economic News And Points To Ponder Wednesday Morning 4-29-26
Oil Dips On UAE OPEC Exit, Hormuz Blockade Props Prices
2026-04-29 Shafaq News Oil prices eased on Wednesday from a multi-day rally as investors digested the ramifications of the United Arab Emirates' surprise decision to quit OPEC, though supply disruptions from the stalemated Iran war support the market.
Brent crude futures for June dipped 1 cent to $111.25 a barrel by 0413 GMT, having climbed for the previous seven sessions. The June contract expires on Thursday and the more active July contract down 28 cents at $104.12.
Wednesday's slight decrease could be partly linked to the UAE's surprising decision to leave producer cartel OPEC, said LSEG senior analyst Anh Pham, as it points to a stronger supply outlook when the country is free of the group’s output quotas.
"However, this effect is not immediate, as the incremental barrels may not be deliverable in the near term due to the ongoing Hormuz blockade," he added.
"So while prices are down slightly, this appears to be more of a correction from earlier gains, with Brent still holding at elevated levels around $110 per barrel."
U.S. President Donald Trump has told aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, the Wall Street Journal said on Tuesday, citing U.S. officials.
Trump is opting to keep squeezing Iran's economy and oil exports by blocking shipping traffic with its ports, it added.
Despite a ceasefire in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, the conflict is deadlocked as both sides seek a formal end to the fighting.
Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, and the United States blockaded Iranian ports.
"The recent rise in oil prices has been driven by the Strait blockade," said Yang An, an analyst at Haitong Futures. "If Trump is prepared to extend the blockade, supply disruptions would worsen further and continue to push oil prices higher."
The U.S. is pressing Iran to end what it says is a nuclear weapons programme, while Iran wants some form of reparations for the latest round of fighting, an easing of economic sanctions and some form of control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The Hormuz shutdown is prompting pulls from global inventories, with market sources saying late on Tuesday the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude oil inventories fell for a second week.
Crude stocks fell by 1.79 million barrels in the week ended April 24, the sources said. Gasoline inventories fell by 8.47 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 2.60 million barrels. (Reuters)
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Oil-dips-on-UAE-OPEC-exit-Hormuz-blockade-props-prices
Basrah Crudes Outpace Regional Benchmarks Despite Decline
2026-04-29 Shafaq News- Basrah Iraq’s Basrah crude prices edged lower by 0.12% on Wednesday, outperforming several regional benchmarks. Basrah Heavy crude fell by 15 cents to $120.93 per barrel, while Basrah Medium crude declined by the same margin to $123.30.
In contrast, Saudi Light stood at $120.30 per barrel, Kuwait crude at $103.79, the UAE’s Murban at $106.70, and Qatar’s Al-Shaheen at $107.
Globally, Brent crude rose $3.08, or 2.8%, to $114.34 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $2.75, or 2.8%, to $102.68.
Iraq prices its crude based on export destinations, with shipments to Asia linked to the Dubai and Oman benchmarks, exports to Europe tied to Brent with premiums or discounts, and cargoes to the United States priced against WTI in line with market conditions. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Basrah-crudes-outpace-regional-benchmarks-despite-decline
Iran’s Khuzestan Exports $61M To Iraq In One Month
2026-04-29 Shafaq News- Tehran/ Baghdad Iran’s Khuzestan province exported 221,000 tons of goods to Iraq worth $60.8 million in the first month of the current Iranian year, Iranian media reported on Wednesday.
According to Iranian outlets, local official Behrouz Qarabiji said imports during the same period totaled 874,000 tons valued at $360 million, while customs revenue rose 409% year-on-year to around $51 million. Customs and transit activity also increased, with 30 clearance declarations covering 2,438 tons and 279 transit filings totaling 36,200 tons.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iran-s-Khuzestan-exports-61M-to-Iraq-in-one-month
UAE Exit From OPEC And OPEC+ Sparks Mixed Outlook For Oil Markets
2026-04-29 Shafaq News- Baghdad The United Arab Emirates’ decision to withdraw from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance has drawn mixed reactions among specialists, amid close monitoring of global markets for producer compliance with output policies and the impact of geopolitical developments on supply and demand.
Oil expert Dirgham Mohammed Ali told Shafaq News that the UAE’s exit could lead to increased production outside the quota system, raising the risk of a significant supply surplus.
He warned that any unregulated rise in output would put strong downward pressure on prices, potentially leading to sharp declines or even a market collapse, particularly if other OPEC+ members show weak adherence to agreed production limits.
Ali explained that the oil market relies on a balance between supply and demand, noting that any disruption by a major producer such as the UAE would have immediate effects. “Iraq could be among the most affected countries, as more than 90% of its budget depends on oil revenues,” the expert noted.
Economic expert Mohammed Al-Hassani downplayed the potential impact, suggesting that the UAE’s withdrawal would not necessarily trigger a sharp price drop.
In remarks to Shafaq News, he said the market is influenced by multiple factors, including global demand, geopolitical tensions, and the ability of major producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, to stabilize supply through production adjustments.
“The UAE may continue informal coordination with other producers, which could limit market disruptions,” he explained, clarifying, “While any price decline would affect Iraq, it is unlikely to result in a severe collapse.”
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/UAE-exit-from-OPEC-and-OPEC-sparks-mixed-outlook-for-oil-markets