Iraq Economic News And Points To Ponder Wednesday Evening 4-15-26

Iraq Faces 6.8% Economic Slump In 2026

2026-04-15   Shafaq News- Baghdad   Iraq’s economy is set to contract by around 6.8% in 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted on Wednesday, citing rising tensions in the Middle East and pressure on energy markets as key drivers behind the outlook.

Despite the recent surge in international oil prices, which typically supports exporting economies, the IMF cautioned that these gains for Iraq may be offset by higher import costs and rising inflation. It added that this dynamic is likely to increase pressure on households and push up prices for essential goods and services.

The Fund also warned that a prolonged escalation could drive oil prices above $110 per barrel, complicating global efforts to contain inflation and prompting tighter monetary policy.

In previous reports, the IMF expected Baghdad’s economy to expand 3.6% in both 2026 and 2027. The pace is projected to strengthen further, reaching 3.9% in 2028 and 4.1% by 2029 and 2030.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-faces-6-8-economic-slump-in-2026

Oil Prices Diverge Following US Blockade On Iranian Ports

2026-04-15   Shafaq News   Oil prices were mixed on Wednesday with Brent futures up and U.S. futures down amid uncertainty over crude supply from the key Middle East producing region as the Strait of Hormuz remains mainly shut.

Brent crude futures were up 40 cents, or 0.4%, to $95.19 a barrel at 0420 GMT, paring earlier losses of as much as 0.9%, after falling 4.6% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $91.05. The contract earlier fell as much as 4.7% after dropping 7.9% the session before.

Talks to end the war between the U.S. and Israel ⁠and Iran could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, after the collapse of negotiations over the weekend prompted Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports. This has increased optimism talks could eventually settle the conflict and open up crude oil and fuel flows.

While the market is thinking the worst is over and factoring in further rounds of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran in the coming days, there is more hope than actual developments at this point, said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank.

"Physical oil is still trading at significant premiums to these futures prices," he said.

The war has mostly shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for crude and refined product flows out of the Gulf to global buyers, particularly in Asia and Europe.

Refiners are desperately seeking alternative crude supply, ⁠pushing the premiums they are willing to pay for oil from areas such as the U.S. Gulf Coast and North Sea. A cargo of WTI Midland for delivery to Rotterdam traded at a record premium of $22.80 a barrel above benchmark European prices on Tuesday.

Despite a two-week ceasefire, transit through the strait remains uncertain, with traffic at only a fraction of the 130 or so vessels that moved through the waterway before the war, sources said on Tuesday.

A U.S. destroyer stopped two ⁠oil tankers from leaving Iran on Tuesday, a U.S. official said.

"While diplomatic headlines suggest the possibility of renewed U.S.-Iran talks and even a temporary easing of transit restrictions, the physical reality remains fragmented," the Schork Group said in a note.

The market stands to lose some access to further supply after two U.S. administration officials told ⁠Reuters on Tuesday the U.S. will not renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea that expires this week, and quietly let a similar waiver on sanctions on Russian oil expire over the weekend.

Later in the day, markets will be watching for official U.S. inventory ⁠data from the Energy Information Administration due at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT).

U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have risen slightly last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories likely fell, a Reuters poll showed. (REUTERS)  https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Oil-prices-diverge-following-US-blockade-on-Iranian-ports

Basrah Crudes Lead Regional Oil Benchmarks

2026-04-15   Shafaq News- Basrah   Iraq’s Basrah crudes rose by more than 0.3% on Wednesday, outperforming several regional benchmarks.

Market data showed Basrah Heavy gaining 46 cents, or 0.39%, to $117.91 per barrel, while Basrah Medium rose by the same amount, up 0.38%, to $120.01 per barrel.

In contrast, several regional grades declined, with Saudi Light at $115.92 per barrel, Qatar’s Al-Shaheen at $103.39, Kuwait crude at $103.34, UAE’s Murban at $100.85, and Iran Light at $98.22.

Globally, Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.5%, to $95.22 per barrel at 0821 GMT, after falling 4.6% in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged down 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $91.11, following a 7.9% decline a day earlier.

Iraq prices its crude based on export destinations, with shipments to Asia linked to the Dubai and Oman benchmarks, exports to Europe tied to Brent with premiums or discounts, and cargoes to the United States priced against WTI in line with market conditions.  https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Basrah-crudes-lead-regional-oil-benchmarks

Iran Halts Petrochemical Exports Amid War And Economic Pressure

2026-04-15   Shafaq News- Tehran   Iran halted all petrochemical exports on Wednesday, Iranian media reported, citing a document and officials in the petrochemical sector.

The decision is intended for an indefinite period to meet domestic demand under current economic and security conditions, the document stated, adding that the decision aimed to support local industries and consumers amid the impact of war and mounting economic pressures.

Under the directive, domestic prices for oil, refined, and petrochemical products have been fixed at levels in place before February 28, 2026, despite a noticeable rise in global prices. The measures were issued under emergency decisions to stabilize the internal market.

Reports indicate that several petrochemical facilities in Iran sustained significant damage during recent airstrikes amid escalating military tensions involving the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. Facilities in Mahshahr, Bandar Imam, and Asaluyeh were among those targeted, causing substantial infrastructure damage.

Earlier, Israel has claimed responsibility for the strikes, which included attacks on petrochemical sites in southern Iran, following an earlier strike on the Tabriz Petrochemical Complex.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iran-halts-petrochemical-exports-amid-war-and-economic-pressure

Iraq Tops Jordan Exports As Amman Trade Rises 30%+

2026-04-15 Shafaq News- Amman   Exports from the Amman Chamber of Commerce rose by 30.9% in the first quarter of 2026, with Iraq ranking as the top destination.

The chamber said in a report that the value of certificates of origin issued for exports to Arab and foreign countries reached 406 million Jordanian dinars (about $574.8M), compared to 310 million dinars (about $438.8M) during the same period in 2025.

The data showed Iraq led importing countries with exports valued at 156 million dinars (about $220.8M). Other markets included Switzerland at 92 million dinars (about $130.2M), Egypt at around 23 million dinars (about $32.5M), Syria at approximately 21 million dinars (about $29.7M), and the United Arab Emirates at a similar level.

According to the statistics, 6,830 certificates of origin were issued in the first quarter, compared to 7,263 during the same period last year, covering a range of goods including re-exported foreign products, as well as industrial, agricultural, and Arab-origin goods.

In the first two months of 2026, Iraq also ranked as the top destination for Jordanian exports, with shipments worth 103 million dinars ($145 million), as total exports rose to 273 million dinars from 226 million dinars in the same period last year, marking a 20.6% increase.  https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-tops-Jordan-exports-as-Amman-trade-rises-30

US Dollar Edges Higher In Baghdad, Drops In Erbil

2026-04-15 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil   The US dollar varied against the Iraqi dinar at Wednesday's closing in Baghdad and Erbil, according to Shafaq News market survey.

At Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya exchanges in Baghdad, the dollar closed at 153,600 IQD per $100, down from 153,500 IQD recorded at the morning session.

In local exchange shops across Baghdad, the selling price reached 154,000 IQD per $100, while the buying price stood at 153,000 IQD.

In Erbil, the dollar declined, with a selling price of 153,550 IQD per $100 and a buying price of 153,450 IQD per $100.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/US-dollar-edges-higher-in-Baghdad-drops-in-Erbil

Gold Prices Rise In Baghdad, Hold Steady In Erbil Markets

2026-04-15 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil   On Wednesday, gold prices hovered around 1.04 million IQD per mithqal in Baghdad and Erbil markets, according to a survey by Shafaq News Agency.

Gold prices on Baghdad's Al-Nahr Street recorded a selling price of 1,038,000 IQD per mithqal (equivalent to five grams) for 21-carat gold, including Gulf, Turkish, and European varieties, with a buying price of 1,034,000 IQD. The same gold had sold for 1,033,000 IQD on Tuesday.

The selling price for 21-carat Iraqi gold stood at 1,008,000 IQD, with a buying price of 1,004,000 IQD.

In jewelry stores, the selling price per mithqal of 21-carat Gulf gold ranged between 1,040,000 and 1,050,000 IQD, while Iraqi gold sold for between 1,010,000 and 1,020,000 IQD.

In Erbil, 22-carat gold was sold at 1,090,000 IQD per mithqal, 21-carat gold at 1,040,000 IQD, and 18-carat gold at 890,000 IQD. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-prices-rise-in-Baghdad-hold-steady-in-Erbil-markets-5

Gold Slides Following Trump's Iran Peace Overture

2026-04-Shafaq News   Gold prices logged a slight loss after hitting a one-month high earlier in the session on Wednesday, as prospects of another round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran lifted risk appetite, while rising oil prices added to higher inflation woes.

Spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,826.13 per ounce, as of 0501 GMT, after hitting its highest since March 18 earlier. U.S. gold futures for June delivery were steady at $4,850.40.

Talks to end ⁠the Iran war could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, after the collapse of weekend negotiations.

Gold prices are reacting to the Middle East headlines in the short term with hopes that the two countries will engage in talks, said Marex analyst Edward Meir.

"If things fall apart again, we can revert to the pre-ceasefire pattern of lower gold, a stronger dollar and lower equity prices."

Bullion is up 1.6% so far this week.

Asian stocks scaled a six-week peak on investor optimism that the Iran war may wind down soon.

Oil prices ⁠gained amid uncertainty over crude supply from the key Middle East producing region as the Strait of Hormuz remains mainly shut.

Higher crude prices feed into inflation by raising transportation and production costs. While gold is treated as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates weigh on the non-yielding metal's demand.

The U.S. ⁠military said late on Tuesday that American forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea through a blockade of Iranian ports.

In the U.S., traders see a 29% chance of a 25-basis-point rate ⁠cut this year, up from about 13% last week. Before the war, there were expectations of two cuts for 2026. FEDWATCH

"While gold and silver rallied strongly overnight, the broader signal was decisively risk-on ⁠rather than defensive positioning," analysts at OCBC said in a note.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.4% to $79.88 per ounce, platinum gained 0.4% to $2,112.05, and palladium was up 0.1% at $1,588.29.   (REUTERS)   Gold slides following Trump's Iran peace overture - Shafaq News