Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Tuesday Afternoon 8-4-26
Oil Rebounds On Renewed Middle East Tensions
2026-08-04 Shafaq News Oil prices rebounded 1% on Tuesday from a plunge in the previous session, fuelled by concerns that Middle East supply remains at risk as a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran war that has disrupted shipments still seems unlikely.
Front-month Brent futures rose $1.12, or 1.3%, to $84.89 a barrel by 0355 GMT after dropping 7% in the previous session to a three-week low.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 77 cents, or 1%, at $81.11 after falling more than 5% in the previous session to stand at its lowest in nearly a week.
Prices dropped after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he was holding off on new attacks on Iran pending ongoing talks to end their war and settle claims over control of the key Strait of Hormuz.
The strategic waterway, which connects Gulf oil producers to global markets, was a channel for about a fifth of global shipments of crude oil and natural gas before the conflict.
However, on Monday, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei rejected Trump's claim, saying no negotiations with the U.S. were taking place and no meetings were scheduled.
"The scale of the sell-off seems fairly overdone, given that there's still considerable uncertainty. We’ve been in this situation multiple times before, only to see things unravel," ING analysts said in a note.
"And with Iran denying that any talks are underway and Trump issuing warnings if no deal materialises, the backdrop clearly leaves ample room for a renewed escalation."
The Hormuz dispute is a central sticking-point in talks. Washington says the memorandum of understanding agreed in June required Iran to open the waterway, while Tehran says the text explicitly preserved its authority.
Analysts at Barclays said crude oil and refined product net exports through the strait averaged 4.2 million barrels per day in the week ended July 31, versus 3.2 million the previous week.
In the Red Sea, six Saudi-flagged supertankers changed course in the Gulf of Aden recently for southern Africa, while two tankers laden with Saudi oil crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, shipping data showed on Monday.
Shipping traffic at the key Gulf waterways of Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz held largely unchanged at the start of the week.
Hormuz remains dangerous for vessels. On Tuesday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency flagged an incident 20 nautical miles (37 km) northeast of Oman's Al Khasab, after a cargo vessel broadcast over VHF channel 16 that it had been hit by an unknown projectile.
"While the fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has not completely halted energy flows, it has forced longer voyage times, higher insurance costs and occasional diversions," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
"With the Strait of Hormuz, it keeps a dual-chokepoint risk in the market that prevents oil from fully unwinding its geopolitical premium." (Reuters)
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Oil-rebounds-on-renewed-Middle-East-tensions
Gold Rises As Markets Await Fed Clues
2026-08-04 Shafaq News Gold nudged higher on Tuesday as investors weighed mixed signals on potential U.S.-Iran talks and awaited a series of U.S. labour market reports for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,062.41 per ounce by 0504 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.7% to $4,117.50.
Reports on U.S. labour market due this week include job opening data later in the day, the ADP employment report on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls figures on Friday.
"Gold is currently in a consolidation phase. If we see weakness in the job market, it could pressure the U.S. dollar and as result there will be gains in gold," said Ajay Kedia, director at Mumbai-based Kedia Commodities.
U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were under way, warning of a "last chance" for Tehran to sign a good deal, but Iran denied that negotiations were being held or planned.
The conflict has driven up energy costs and stoked inflation fears, which could prompt central banks to raise interest rates to keep price pressures in check.
While gold is seen as an inflation hedge, higher rates tend to weigh on the metal as it yields no interest.
Traders currently price in a 65% chance of a rate hike in September after a divided Fed maintained the status quo at its last policy meeting.
If bets for a September rate-hike ease, it will support gold prices, Kedia said.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he remained optimistic that inflation pressures are on track to ease gradually, but if they don't, the U.S. central bank will not hesitate to respond with rate hikes.
Citi said in a note that it expects gold prices to stagnate or even decline over the next month, before rallying to $4,500 in the fourth quarter and to $5,000 by the first half of next year.
Spot silver gained 1.2% to $58.89 per ounce, platinum firmed 0.9% to $1,641.96 and palladium rose 0.9% to $1,275.83. (Reuters)
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-rises-as-markets-await-Fed-clues
Basrah Crude Prices Fall With Gains In Global Oil Markets
2026-08-04 Shafaq News- Baghdad Iraq's Basrah crude prices posted notable losses on Tuesday, even as global oil prices moved higher, according to oil price data reviewed by Shafaq News.
Basrah Heavy crude fell to $51.76 per barrel, down $4.45, or 7.92%, while Basrah Medium crude dropped to $54.06 per barrel, down $4.45, or 7.61%, compared to the previous session.
Brent futures rose $1.12, or 1.3%, to $84.89 a barrel by 0355 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 77 cents, or 1%, to $81.11 a barrel.
The gains came amid continued uncertainty over talks aimed at ending the US-Iran conflict and lingering concerns over the security of Middle East oil supplies.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Basrah-crude-prices-fall-with-gains-in-global-oil-markets
USD/IQD Holds Ground In Baghdad, Advances In Erbil
2026-08-04 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil The US dollar edged higher in Erbil as trading opened on Tuesday, while Baghdad's Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya currency exchanges were closed due to the Arbaeen holiday.
According to Shafaq News market survey, some exchange shops in Baghdad sold the US dollar at 152,250 dinars per 100 dollars and bought it at 151,250 dinars.
In Erbil, the dollar sold for 152,900 dinars per 100 dollars and bought for 152,750 dinars.
The official exchange rate set by the Central Bank of Iraq stands at 132,000 dinars per 100 dollars.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/USD-IQD-holds-ground-in-Baghdad-advances-in-Erbil
Iraq Tops Arab Oil, Gas Agreements In July
2026-08-04 Shafaq News- Baghdad Iraq signed the Arab world’s largest oil and gas deals in July 2026, topping regional energy investment with projects aimed at boosting production and expanding infrastructure, Washington-based energy research platform ATTAQA reported.
Baghdad ranked first after reaching agreements with US companies to advance nine oil fields across Kirkuk, Diyala, Basra, and Dhi Qar. The projects involve ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Halliburton, and HKN Energy and support the government’s goal of raising crude output to 6 million barrels per day, increasing associated gas production, and improving operational efficiency.
The contracts were concluded during Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi’s July visit to Washington, where Iraq also reached broader understandings with US companies covering infrastructure and technology.
Oman joined the list with oil field and tanker projects, while Qatar secured contracts for Libya’s Ghadames Basin and the Baleine offshore field in Côte d’Ivoire.
Read more: Iraq-US investment deals depend on implementation
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-tops-Arab-oil-gas-agreements-in-July
Gold Market Pauses In Baghdad, Erbil Moves Higher
2026-08-04 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil Gold trading remained limited in Baghdad on Tuesday during the Arbaeen* holiday, while 21-carat gold hovered around 880,000 Iraqi dinars per mithqal (about five grams) in Erbil, according to Shafaq News survey.
In Baghdad's gold shops that remained open, imported 21-carat gold from the Gulf ranged from 870,000 to 880,000 dinars per mithqal, while Iraqi gold traded between 840,000 and 850,000 dinars.
In Erbil, where markets operated normally, 22-carat gold sold for 916,000 dinars per mithqal, 21-carat gold for 875,000 dinars, and 18-carat gold for 750,000 dinars.
* Arbaeen, observed this year on Aug. 4, marks the 40th day after the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, the third Shia Imam and grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, and draws millions of Shiite Muslims to Karbala annually, making it one of the largest religious gatherings in the world.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-market-pauses-in-Baghdad-Erbil-moves-higher