Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Saturday Afternoon 8-8-26

EconomicsNews

Aug 8

Brent Up 1% As Markets Weigh Hormuz Risks

2026-08-07 Shafaq News Oil extended gains on Friday amid further concerns around the opening of the Strait of Hormuz as Iran, working with Oman, suggested banning vessels deemed hostile from the strait and heavily fining those which violated the proposed ‌rules.

Brent crude futures rose 80 cents, or 0.97%, to $83.29 a barrel by 0303 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 64 cents, or 0.83%, to $77.93.

Oil futures settled up at over $3 a barrel on Thursday as Iran reviewed a bill to ban U.S. and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz where roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transmitted before the war began at the end of February.

Prices fell earlier in the week ⁠as a possible solution to the ongoing conflict looked more likely but benchmark Brent breached $80 on Thursday after falling below that for the first time since July 13. Both benchmarks were headed for a weekly loss of about 8%.

Analysts said the events that have unfolded this week signalled that the hostilities between Iran and the U.S. are not yet over.

"The proximate trigger is more specific, it's (oil prices) reacting to Iran's published draft plan for Hormuz transit conditions, which would ban U.S. and Israeli vessels and require other 'hostile' countries to pay compensation before passage," said Lin Ye, vice president of commodities market – oil at consultancy Rystad Energy.

"That's not the market pricing in a bad deal, it's pricing in confirmation that whatever emerges is a ‌managed/conditional ⁠corridor, not a restoration of normal flow," Ye added.

An Iranian lawmaker said a parliamentary committee is reviewing a preliminary bill to ban U.S., Israeli and other vessels deemed hostile from the Strait of Hormuz, and fine violators of the proposed restrictions up to 20% of cargo value, according to Fars news agency.

Iran is seeking fees of between 5% and 7% of the price of cargoes from ships ⁠using the strait, according to the senior Iranian official. Oman is discussing fees of around 3%, while Washington wants no fees at all.

Four industry sources have said the proposed deal is not easily workable due to U.S. sanctions and restrictive insurance clauses on any payments.

"This week’s signals ⁠on a potential Iran-Oman transit deal have driven a roller-coaster ride in market sentiment but as of now, (it is) left it in the dark as to what needs to happen for the agreement to be clinched," said Vandana Hari, founder ⁠of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthis said they carried out missile and drone attacks on "Saudi deployments" in Marib and Hadramout in Yemen on Thursday.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday told reporters that he believed the war would be over soon. (REUTERS)

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Brent-up-1-as-markets-weigh-Hormuz-risks

India's Reliance Pays Record $25M To Ship Iraqi Crude

2026-08-07 Shafaq News- New Delhi India's Reliance Industries has agreed to pay a record $23 million to $25 million to charter a supertanker to transport Iraqi crude oil, highlighting soaring shipping costs and a shortage of vessels operating in the Gulf, three shipping sources told Reuters on Thursday.

Reliance booked the tanker to load 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude at 1,200 World Scale, equivalent to about 12 times the benchmark freight rate. Before the US-Iran war began in late February, similar voyages typically cost around $2 million, or 0.8 to 0.9 times the benchmark rate. The tanker will be supplied by South Korea's Sinokor, one of the few shipowners that continues to operate through the waterway despite growing security risks.

Despite the record freight costs, the sources said Reliance is still expected to save millions of dollars because Iraq's state oil marketer SOMO is offering crude at discounts of $25 to $30 per barrel against Dubai benchmarks to encourage buyers to lift cargoes from terminals in Hormuz.

A day earlier, Reuters reported that shipping traffic through the strait had fallen sharply as markets monitored Iran-Oman talks on reopening the strategic waterway. Vessel-tracking data showed only 33 ships transited the strait between Monday and Thursday, down from 50 during the same period a week earlier.

Iraq's oil revenues have declined sharply this year. SOMO figures showed the country earned $18.679 billion from exporting 268.1 million barrels of crude in the first half of 2026, compared with more than 606 million barrels exported during the same period of 2025.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/India-s-Reliance-pays-record-25M-to-ship-Iraqi-crude

Syria Exports 2M Tons Of Iraqi Oil Via Baniyas

2026-08-07 Shafaq News- Damascus Syria exported more than 2 million metric tons of Iraqi oil through Baniyas Port under the transit system since the beginning of the year, the Syrian General Authority for Land and Sea Border Crossings stated on Thursday.

About 30 tankers carrying fuel oil and refined petroleum products transported the shipments through the port, which received 108 tankers loaded with about 3.23 million metric tons of various petroleum products since the beginning of 2026.

Last month, Iraq and Syria signed a US-sponsored memorandum of understanding to restart the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline, paving the way for Iraqi crude exports to Mediterranean ports through Syrian territory. The project aims to diversify Iraq's export routes and strengthen economic cooperation between the two countries.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Syria-exports-2M-tons-of-Iraqi-oil-via-Baniyas

Currency Issuance Rose 13.8 Percent Through May

2026-08-07 Shafaq News- Baghdad Iraq's currency issuance rose 13.8 percent in the first five months of 2026, reaching about 113.56 trillion Iraqi dinars (about $86B) by the end of May, an increase of 13.761 trillion dinars from the close of 2025 (about $10.4B), the financial and economic adviser to the prime minister, Mudhhir Mohammed Salih, told Shafaq News.

Salih said the rise was an exceptional response to a sharp fall in oil revenue, not a monetary expansion meant to stimulate demand.

Currency issuance refers to the total value of banknotes the Central Bank of Iraq has put into circulation. The figure stood at 99.799 trillion dinars at the end of December 2025, according to data tracked by Shafaq News.

The measure climbed to 101.431 trillion dinars in January 2026, 104.614 trillion in February, 108.985 trillion in March, and 112.896 trillion in April, before reaching 113.560 trillion in May, according to the Shafaq News survey. The largest monthly rise came in March, at about 4.371 trillion dinars, followed by 3.911 trillion in April.

The expansion coincided with a financial crisis tied to a steep drop in oil exports, Salih said. Iraqi exports fell to about 15 percent of their usual levels as a result of the Strait of Hormuz conflict —the waterway through which Iraq shipped about 95% of its total oil exports— before recovering to around 30 percent. The issuance met the government's need for liquidity to cover public-sector salaries and essential spending amid the revenue shortfall, rather than to expand demand, he added.

Most of those funding needs were met by widening domestic public debt through treasury bills, which state banks bought and then rediscounted at the central bank; as a result, the bank now holds more than 60 percent of government debt instruments in its investment portfolio, according to Salih.

Salih described the rise as "an exceptional response to a temporary external financial shock," rather than a sign of monetary or financial breakdown.

The risk of the expansion should be judged by monetary stability indicators rather than the size of issuance alone, Salih said. Foreign reserves still covered the money supply above the 75 percent threshold that international practice treats as a marker of a sound monetary position, and annual inflation held steady at about 4.5 percent, indicating the increase had not yet translated into broad inflationary pressure.

Sustaining the path over a long period carries growing risks, Salih cautioned. Repeated reliance on monetizing public debt through the central bank could generate inflationary pressure over time, or erode reserve coverage, if oil revenue does not recover sufficiently.

“Monetary policy in the next phase would depend, in coordination with fiscal policy, on preserving reserve adequacy, limiting monetary financing of the deficit, and rebuilding balance between public revenue and government spending as oil conditions improve.”

The pace slowed at the end of the period, with the monthly increase falling to about 664 billion dinars in May, according to Shafaq News survey. *1 US dollar = 1310 dinars

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Currency-issuance-rose-13-8-percent-through-May

Basrah Crude Drops Over 2% On The Week

2026-08-08 Shafaq News- Basrah Basrah Heavy and Medium crude posted weekly losses of $1.42 a barrel, or 2.56% and 2.49%, respectively, despite rising in the final trading session, while global oil prices closed lower.

Basrah Heavy gained $2.16 a barrel, or 4.10%, in the final session to settle at $54.79. Basrah Medium also rose $2.16 a barrel, or 3.92%, to close at $57.09.

Global oil futures ended the session lower. West Texas Intermediate fell $0.23, or 0.30%, to $77.06 a barrel, while Brent declined $0.30, or 0.36%, to $82.19.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Basrah-crude-drops-over-2-on-the-week

US Dollar Edges Lower In Baghdad And Erbil

2026-08-08 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil The US dollar opened Saturday's trading lower in Iraq, hovering around 152,000 dinars per 100 dollars in Baghdad and Erbil.

According to Shafaq News market survey, the dollar traded in Baghdad's Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya exchanges at 152,000 dinars per 100 dollars, down from Thursday's 152,050 dinars.

In the Iraqi capital, exchange shops sold the dollar at 152,500 dinars and bought it at 151,500 dinars.

In Erbil, selling prices stood at 152,150 dinars and buying prices at 152,050 dinars.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/US-Dollar-edges-lower-in-Baghdad-and-Erbil-9

Gold Prices Rise In Baghdad, Erbil Markets

2026-08-08 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil On Saturday, gold prices hovered around 930,000 IQD per mithqal in Baghdad and Erbil markets, continuing their upward trend, according to a survey by Shafaq News Agency.

Gold prices on Baghdad's Al-Nahr Street recorded a selling price of 937,000 IQD per mithqal (equivalent to five grams) for 21-carat gold, including Gulf, Turkish, and European varieties, with a buying price of 933,000 IQD. The same gold had sold for 920,000 IQD on Thursday.

The selling price for 21-carat Iraqi gold stood at 907,000 IQD, with a buying price of 903,000 IQD.

In jewelry stores, the selling price per mithqal of 21-carat Gulf gold ranged between 940,000 and 950,000 IQD, while Iraqi gold sold for between 910,000 and 920,000 IQD.

In Erbil, 22-carat gold was sold at 973,000 IQD per mithqal, 21-carat gold at 930,000 IQD, and 18-carat gold at 797,000 IQD.

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-prices-rise-in-Baghdad-Erbil-markets-7-1

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Iraq Oil Minister Details Hormuz Talks, Production Outlook

2026-08-08 Shafaq News- Baghdad Iraq's Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair confirmed on Saturday that the country is currently producing 2.7 million barrels of oil per day, with exports ranging between 1.5 and 1.7 million barrels daily, revealing that talks are underway with Iran to allow Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, though no agreement has yet been implemented.

Despite challenges linked to the strait, the ministry has managed to secure oil products for citizens, Khudair said at a press conference, adding that the ministry is working to develop the oil industry, increase production and exports, build infrastructure, boost investment, and attract global companies to optimally invest in oil and gas.

He noted that exploration teams affiliated with the ministry are conducting surveys in several provinces to offset depleted reserves, explaining that the ministry is pursuing two parallel tracks on the gas file: ending gas flaring and investing in gas fields. "Iraq spends large sums on gas, so we are working to invest in it, with 14 contracts awarded to global companies for this purpose.”

Khudair said his recent visit to the United States marked “a new chapter of cooperation with global companies,” stressing that the presence of American firms in Iraq “reflects the attractiveness of the country's investment environment.”

Global companies are capable of training Iraqi personnel and contributing to infrastructure development, as well as attracting large numbers of workers, Khudair stated, noting that the ministry signed memoranda of understanding and contracts covering seven provisions, including two contracts for developing fields and investing in associated oil and gas, alongside an annex to the Qurna-2 agreement and the Nasiriyah project and four blocks.

The minister also added that three memoranda of understanding signed with American companies would provide significant investment capacity, pointing also to a step related to an export project through the port of Aqaba.

The Basra-Fishkhabour pipeline project will be built under a build-operate-transfer (BOT) system, with a company handling construction and operation under an investment arrangement, according to the minister. Current oil output cannot reach previous levels, he said, but exports could return to prior volumes once the war ends.

On the oil agreement with Turkiye, Khudair said the deal had been renewed with certain conditions, while Ankara had proposed limiting the arrangement to oil transport with Iraqi participation in some projects, clarifying that the planned quantity of 700,000 barrels cannot be supplied through Kirkuk.

Regarding the oil and gas file in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), Khudair confirmed the existence of a tripartite agreement between the federal government, the region, and oil companies, which can be amended through negotiation.

The ministry does not differentiate between citizens in Kurdistan and those in any other province, he stressed. “The KRI file requires extensive dialogue, with continued negotiation essential to reaching solutions that serve the national interest.”

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-oil-minister-details-Hormuz-talks-production-outlook

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