Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Monday Afternoon 8-24-26
Oil Drops Ahead Of Tougher US Iran Sanctions
2026-08-24 Shafaq News Oil prices slipped more than $1 a barrel on Monday as investors took profits ahead of an expected announcement from Washington about imposing more sanctions on Iran that may further disrupt supplies from the Middle East.
Brent crude futures fell $1.23, or 1.3%, to $93.16 by 0329 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $85.7 a barrel, down $1.36, or 1.6%.
Both contracts posted their second weekly gains last week, up more than 5%, as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran hit a stalemate, capping oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz where a fifth of the world's supply used to transit.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, set to hold a press conference at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Monday, has threatened to impose "the toughest sanctions in history" on Iran. President Donald Trump has also threatened to impose sanctions on Iran's trading partners.
"It is unclear whether U.S. policy to economically isolate Iran will prove effective," Vivek Dhar, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a note.
"But if the U.S. measures do work as intended, Iran's ability to respond via increased violence becomes a growing risk for energy markets to consider."
Iran has condemned U.S. plans to announce new sanctions even as President Masoud Pezeshkian called for a diplomatic solution.
"The more pragmatic members of the Iranian leadership would prefer to de-escalate but the hardliners would probably prefer to fight to the bitter end," IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore said.
"I think by the end of this week we will have a good idea which side of the Iranian leadership has the upper hand."
Offers of Iranian crude to Chinese buyers have declined and prices have jumped as the U.S. blockade has cut Tehran's shipments, according to trade sources.
However, Iran has granted permission for a number of Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait following repeated requests from Baghdad, Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported on Saturday.
Some analysts are expecting the recovery in supplies from the Middle East to take even longer than expected as the U.S.-Iran conflict persists.
"Crude (supply) is tightening. Recent weeks have seen one of the sharpest declines in oil-on-water, whilst onshore inventories are declining as well, including in China," said Morgan Stanley analysts in a note.
"A reduction in supply is driving this, most notably from the Middle East where several data sources put aggregate exports back at March/April levels," they said, slowing their assumption for a recovery in Middle East supplies. (REUTERS)
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Oil-drops-ahead-of-tougher-US-Iran-sanctions
Strait Of Hormuz Transit Dips 90%
2026-08-24 Shafaq News- Hormuz Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by nearly 90% from levels seen before the US-Iran war, sharply disrupting traffic through one of the world’s most important energy routes.
Thirteen vessels crossed the maritime gateway on Saturday and four on Sunday, compared with 16 on Friday, according to data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler.
Figures from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) showed that 89 vessels exited the Strait and 103 entered during the week ending Aug. 21.
The slowdown has also affected vessels linked to Iraq. An empty very large crude carrier bound for Iraq entered the Gulf on Friday, while separate shipping data showed a tanker entering the Red Sea on Saturday carrying Iraqi crude from Basra.
The disruption has sharply reduced Iraq’s southern crude exports. Shipments averaged about 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, up from roughly 500,000 bpd in June and 100,000 bpd in May, but remained well below pre-disruption Basrah exports of more than 3.3 million bpd.
With shipments still constrained, Baghdad is pursuing alternative export routes through Turkiye, Syria and Jordan to reduce its dependence on Hormuz. A proposed pipeline to Syria’s Baniyas port could take about four years to build and cost at least $15 billion.
Read more: No exit but Hormuz: Iraq's economic vulnerability exposed
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Strait-of-Hormuz-transit-dips-90
Gold Hits Three-Month High On Weaker Dollar
2026-08-24 Shafaq News Gold prices hit their highest level in more than three months on Monday as a subdued dollar lent support, while focus shifted to key U.S. inflation data and a speech later this week by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,641.27 per ounce, as of 0427 GMT, after hitting its highest level since May 15 earlier in the session. Prices gained more than 5% last week.
U.S. gold futures edged 0.4% higher to $4,697.70.
A wavering dollar teetered near multi-month lows in a market unsettled by the U.S. Treasury's promise to buy back more long bonds. A weaker U.S. dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies.
Gold is looking sprightly to start the week and has stepped back into bid mode and is taking its cues primarily from the softer dollar and focusing on what higher yields may be signaling about underlying economic strains and policy uncertainty, said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
The July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data and Fed Chair Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium this week will be watched for fresh clues on the U.S. interest rate outlook.
"Traders will be listening closely for any shift in tone on the policy path and how it sits with recent bond-market developments. A balanced or cautious tone that leaves room for flexibility would likely keep the door open for gold to extend its gains," Waterer said.
On the geopolitical front, the U.S. threatened Iran with what it called "the greatest financial offensive ever marshalled" as it prepared to roll out economic sanctions that target Iran's trade partners. Oil prices slipped more than $1 a barrel as investors took profits ahead of the expected announcement.
Among other metals, spot silver steadied at $68.98 per ounce. Platinum rose 0.1% to $1,878.88, while palladium was flat at $1,350.00. (REUTERS)
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-hits-three-month-high-on-weaker-dollar
Iraq Overhauls Import Fees With Advance Customs Payments
2026-08-24 Shafaq News- Baghdad Iraqi importers will have to pay estimated customs duties and tax deposits before transferring money abroad for imported goods from Oct. 1, under a new mechanism that traders warn could increase upfront costs and put additional pressure on businesses.
The Cabinet approved the advance-payment system on Aug. 18. Under the decision, importers will deposit funds intended for foreign transfers with licensed banks, but the money will not be sent abroad until they pay estimated customs duties and tax deposits through the ASYCUDA system, a computerized customs management platform, and approved electronic payment channels.
The estimated amount will be calculated from preliminary import data, including commercial invoices, shipping documents, customs classification, the type and origin of the goods and their declared value.
New Tariff System
Iraq’s General Commission of Customs announced in late December 2025 that the new tariff would take effect on Jan. 1, including a 15% customs duty on vehicles and the removal of a previous exemption for hybrid cars.
Read more: Iraq’s updated customs tariffs, legal dispute, and market impact
The Commission subsequently said Cabinet Resolution No. 957 of 2025 ended the flat-fee system for containers, with goods instead assessed according to their classification under Customs Tariff Law No. 22 of 2010.
Customs officials have said tariff rates vary by product, starting at 5%, while ASYCUDA calculates duties using criteria such as weight or quantity depending on the type of goods.
Traders Question Upfront Payments
Baghdad Chamber of Commerce spokesperson Rashid al-Saadi told Shafaq News that businesspeople and importers raised concerns over the advance-payment mechanism at a meeting convened last Wednesday by the Trade Ministry’s Private Sector Development Department.
Tax deposits amount to 3%, while customs duties vary by classification and can reach 30%, 35% or, in some cases, 40%, according to al-Saadi.
He said the Chamber does not oppose paying legally required taxes and customs duties but objects to the additional burden created when importers must make payments before receiving their goods.
Read more: How Iraq’s customs overhaul is reshaping trade
“The equation is unbalanced,” al-Saadi said, arguing that businesses and citizens pay taxes and duties without receiving a corresponding level of public services.
The Federation of Iraqi Chambers of Commerce plans to raise its concerns with government bodies. Al-Saadi said the business community and the Private Sector Development Department agreed to prepare recommendations for submission to the Customs Commission and the Cabinet Secretariat.
Protecting Domestic Production
Parliament’s Finance Committee supports full implementation of the customs tariff, committee member Jamal Kocher told Shafaq News, arguing that the policy is not solely about raising revenue but also protecting domestic production.
Under the previous system, Kocher said, containers could incur similar charges regardless of what they carried. The new approach instead calculates duties according to the classification and value of goods or the applicable unit of measurement.
Products covered by measures intended to protect Iraqi producers may face substantially higher tariffs than other imports, he added.
The changes form part of a broader customs automation program. By June, the Customs Commission said 25 customs centers had been automated and that work was underway on a single-window system involving 15 ministries and government bodies.
The Commission has also reported progress in talks with the Kurdistan Region to unify customs procedures and bring the Region’s border crossings under ASYCUDA.
What It Could Mean For Car Prices
Economist Ahmed Eid said the impact of the 15% vehicle tariff should be distinguished from the eventual increase consumers may see in showroom prices.
“A 15% tariff does not necessarily mean that the price of a car will rise by 15%,” Eid told Shafaq News, noting that final prices also depend on the customs valuation, transportation and import costs and dealers’ margins.
Claims that vehicle prices could rise by as much as 30% require greater official clarity about how charges are calculated, he said. The impact could also vary among US, Gulf and other imported vehicles depending on their value, type and customs classification.
Higher import costs could eventually affect vehicles already on the Iraqi market by increasing their replacement cost, Eid said.
While the tariff could help Iraq increase non-oil revenue, he added, it could also raise the cost of vehicle ownership, making clear and transparent implementation important to prevent unjustified price increases.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-s-new-customs-system-puts-import-fees-upfront
Dollar Rises Against Dinar In Baghdad And Erbil
2026-08-24 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil The US dollar rose against the Iraqi dinar on Monday, hovering around 154,000 dinars per $100 in Baghdad and Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region.
At the Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya exchanges in Baghdad, the dollar traded at 154,300 dinars per $100, up from 154,100 dinars a day earlier, according to a Shafaq News market survey.
In Baghdad's local exchange shops, the selling price reached 154,750 dinars per $100, while the buying price stood at 153,750 dinars.
Rates climbed in Erbil as well, where the dollar sold at 154,050 dinars per $100 and was bought at 153,950 dinars.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Dollar-rises-against-dinar-in-Baghdad-and-Erbil-3