Don961 and Delta Tuesday PM "It's the Exchange Rate, Gentleman" 11-26-19
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Prof.Dr. Mahmoud Mohammed Dagher: * It is the exchange rate, gentlemen
21/11/2019
While the exchange rate goes to indicate the number of units of one currency against one unit of another currency, its changes, and this is important, reflect the cash equivalents to deduct part of the purchasing power (when reducing) The problem associated with deduction or consolidation is that it enters purchasing power without taking into account the income bracket, i.e., an additional tax on the decline (and additional income on the rise) without correlation with the income level.
Therefore, the choice of Exchange Regime is central to following the results of the exchange rate fluctuation (currency value) as well as determining the channel of transmission of its effect to the real macroeconomic joints
a) The effect of currency fluctuations or changes in the value of the currency is reflected in the exchange system option between floating floating system with multiple spectra. It is rare for monetary authorities to clearly state the nature of their de jure system, but it is the de facto transactions by which specialists determine the exchange system and its neutral spectrum.
Following the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions , the most important document is to identify the nature of a country's exchange rate regime, as well as to identify the nominal stabilizer of monetary policy.
The currency fluctuation in the market, the nature of the restrictions imposed by the monetary authority, and then the exchange system determines, for example, the Iraqi exchange system is placed within the group of countries that follow the traditional exchange rate system.
Dealing with the exchange of dinar a Iraqi promise Mthbtha Nominally monetary policy. Through the follow-up to most of the countries with open rentier economy survey, we find it under the umbrella of an international currency peg (the dollar often or sometimes a basket of currencies the dollar component represents President
b) Iraqi dinar, as the honor of the Iraqi dinar is being dealt with several Asian cities of the policy of extension and through the follow-up survey of most of the major economic countries open economy, we find that they are under the system of linking international currency dollar high or sometimes a basket of currencies such as the dollar component main Stemming from the development of the economy and its non-diversification, fearing the impact of fluctuations in the economy of the economy when choosing a flexible alternative, and after avoiding the erosion of the value of the currency and reflected in the purchasing power of the individual entered the biggest justification for the option of the system of fixed payoff system) and any spectrum.
This approach helps in doing what he wants from the various sharp and rapid repercussions and the role of the exchange rate in that and then we rate the proportion of the year in Iraq about its choice fixed exchange system.
First: The Lebanese has not witnessed a stable monetary system as witnessed by the Lebanese regime since the early 1990s, and political pressures and internal disparities did not succeed in changing the tightening system of the Lebanese pound.
This was a milestone in the stable monetary policy of the Central Bank of Lebanon and the developed banking system compared to the countries of the region. . However, this stability in the management of monetary policy and the stability of the value of the lira ($ 1 - 1500 pounds) accompanied by the abandonment of the Bank of Lebanon part of its independence by accepting the mutual influence between the list of the financial position of the Bank of Lebanon and the general budget of the executive authority by accepting the purchase of public debt instruments
This increased the volume of credit assets in the BDL's financial position, which in turn was securitized and offered to Lebanese banks, which government debt securities are also part of their asset list and trained to motivate them to continue to accept this. Its leaves. . The high interest rate has been a catalyst for deposit and lending in the banking system, with large dollar innovations under pressure to stimulate higher interest rates compared to regional banks. This was accompanied by exchanges (Swap securities between the Central Bank of Lebanon and banks and everyone stimulates the interest rate attractive, forgetting that the taxpayer taxpayer is the financier of the Lebanese general budget deficit and securities issued by the Treasury to cover the deficit and debt
List of BDL's financial position and the general budget of the executive authority by accepting the purchase and monetization of public treasury debt instruments, in return for the interest of Al-Munawara as well as the growing volume of the wave.
And his credit in the list of the financial position of the Bank of Lebanon, which was in turn intensified (Securitic and presented to the Lebanese banks, which became government debt securities part of the list of assets as well as generating a incentive to continue with the advent of these securities Large dollar innovations under pressure to stimulate higher interest rates compared to banks in the region accompanied by swaps of securities between the Central Bank of Lebanon and banks and everyone stimulates the attractive interest rate, forgetting that the taxpayer is the financier of the deficit.
Lebanese public offset the continuing financial and securities issued by the Treasury to cover the deficit and the accumulated debt) by the political adventures of the parties to the main revolving around the management of governance, so Atsag growing banking revenue tax rates is increasing on the Lebanese citizen financially banking must be up to the extent that it is difficult where continuity |
The mutual relationship between the BDL and the Lebanese government, and this means Stuck stopped the ability of debt securities to grant a return or to bear a cost, ie, the credit assets reached high levels of the Lebanese banking system and the Lebanese Central Bank unless interest is increased, corresponding to the high level of debt Debt. Accumulated Deficits Deficits Continues
2009 - 2010 The monetary policy in the annual budget is refined, unless the tax proceeds to bear the cost of issuing additional debt securities financing deficit! The link between the performance of the BDL and the performance of the government was sharply reflected when Lebanese taxpayers rejected the tax increase project proposed by the Lebanese government.
Lit to the level ($ 1 = 1800 lire) Financial panic financial panic began secret to the banking system, and panic included two aspects: | - Dense wave of withdrawal of dollar deposits. D Relative paralysis in goods and services imported in dollars and sold in lira. So we are facing a scene in which the Lebanese pound fell by 20% in the parallel market, while the Banque du Liban insists that the price of the pound (1 $ = 1510 pounds) with banks refused to transfer deposits of individuals and companies abroad, and the trend of everyone to escape from the pound to the dollar, has become Fluctuation of the exchange rate as the governor of what is happening, and any government correction or banking action does not
to - Dense wave of withdrawal of dollar deposits. - Relative paralysis in goods and services imported in dollars and sold in lira. . So we are in front of a scene in which the Lebanese pound fell by 20% in the parallel market, while the Banque du Liban insisted that the price of the lira (LBP 151251) with the banks' refusal to transfer the reality of individuals and companies abroad, and the trend of everyone to escape from the lira to the dollar did not fluctuate the exchange rate as governor The Lebanese citizen, whether working in the private or public sectors, has a real decline, as long as most of the goods and services are imported in dollars, and the pent-up of inflation has revealed the balance that the BDL has achieved. This is what the low currency is Shah specialists, but the worst thing that happens to the currency of a small and open economy is the existence of two exchange rates, one declared 1512 pounds per dollar and the other at 1800 pounds per dollar, so individuals do not bear the impoverishment caused by the implicit tax caused by the devaluation of the currency.
The potential solution after the crisis is mainly the ability of the executive authority to develop the street and reassure the citizen, and the exit of the government expected by the budget deficit, while the Central Bank of Lebanon must disengage the list of financial center to the ongoing budget deficit, as well as control the entry and exit of goods and services :
The Iranian event, the second important event whose repercussions still exist.:
Iran follows the exchange rate system with a number of composite currencies according to IMF classification (2018), but its spectrum is far from the traditional fixed exchange rate of Iraq, as it is called Cawlike Arrangements. • Capital and capital pressures, so countries that follow this pattern change their classification quickly
Note that Iran is practically pegging its currency to the polar according to the spectrum above, and the monetary authority (KFHI) exercises restrictions on exchange as well as multiple practices with the currency Multiple Currency Practices MCP It may seem that such a pattern closer to the Managed Floating managed as trying Some mistakenly call it that, because directed changes are realized from the exchange rate of AIT to the last APT, and so away from the pattern of exchange flexibility.
This system adopted by the working authority may give it a flexible annual economic flexibility, but this is accompanied by high risks Risks if accompanied by the rise of Australian Central Bank and the acquisition of financial authority (Treasury) on the bank and lead the economic decision, as the latter is ideological pattern And rigid targets, which is happening in Iran. While the drainage system gives high potential to stimulate export, it reflects on the lives of different social strata.
The Authority's desire to stimulate exports and reduce imports in response to the imposed blockade, or 2 positions in stimulating growth sectors attracting foreign exchange, as the monetary authority has been constantly devaluating currency until recently, after the recent siege, turned into a floating currency almost free of risks to the economy The most important is what we fear from the impact on the purchasing power of most income brackets as long as the trend is the reduction (Depreciate), so Yere is the cash equivalent to the tax on income all without exception and by the same force, unlike the tax that takes into account the income bracket.
As a result, the reduction of the aunt does not take into account the domestic tranche 0, although it is an implicit tax (Iranplicit Tax, the recent blockade has generally revenues from oil exports and some other tribe commodities) and a clear deficit with large spending requirements.
"The effect is the monetary equivalent of taxing all incomes without exception and by the same force, unlike the tax that takes into account the income bracket. As a result, currency depreciation does not take into account the scientific segment, although it is an implicit blow. The search for a way out of the public financial crisis took place with some options abandoning government spending programs in armament and capacity development in the hope of filling the deficit. The Iranian currency has collapsed to record highs in the recent period as illustrated in Figure (1). 1) The exchange rate fluctuations of the Iranian rial against the US dollar in the parallel market IRR / USD
Mahmoud - edited rebellions / 2/2019/11 / omists. net / en / wp - content / uploads / sites = At Source: WWW. BONBAST. Note that (1 toman is equal to 10,000 riyals) the rate of decline by figure is estimated at 312% from June 2017 ($ 1 equals "37.00 riyals") until September 2018 ($ 1 equals 152,500 riyals), Despite the improvement, it remains within the range of 120,000 riyals to the dollar (in the parallel market, while the Iranian central bank declares the price of 12,000 riyals per dollar). Its negative impact on world life from the event of igniting inflation and erosion of real income is likely, which is the birth of the protests that limited the protests in 2009, 2017, but greater than what is currently happening
The strange link between the current event in Iran and the decision to raise the price of hydrocarbons (gasoline)
It is strange to link the current event in Iran to the decision to raise the price of gasoline (AU0) after a certain volume of subsidized fuel. The price outweighs the income and not the prices of other countries, and since the very low exchange rate has exhausted the real income earned, the increase in the price of fuel affects the income of the citizen sharply. Without taking into account the level of poverty must Thinking that the goal of obtaining foreign exchange did not leave the maker of Al-Safati before the siege and the recent significant devaluation of the currency. The deposit of their money is coordinated by daughters under bank intermediation
Auto | Lending, which is difficult to achieve because the latter depends on the profitability of investment in the Iranian economy is not possible, so the dollar depositors suffered clear losses and reduced confidence in the banking system.
THIRD: THE IRAQI EVENT
We conclude from the simplified analysis of the two existing Lebanese and Iranian events and before them the Egyptian event (two months ago, represented by the popular protests are as follows: -
1.The dependence of the continuing monetary authority represented by the balance sheet (balance sheet) to the effects of the continuing deficit in the public budget, will inevitably lead to currency exposure, as long as the financing of the deficit is continuous and not atheists.
2. The dependence of the continuing monetary authority, represented in the balance sheet (balance sheet) on the effects of the continuing budget deficit, will inevitably lead to currency exposures as long as the financing of the deficit is sustained rather than individual.
3. Excessive stimulation of the export sector through reduction is not feasible, as long as the production structure is not diversified, as has been demonstrated by many experiences, especially when the export sector is technologically dilapidated and preferably a strong currency to assist in the import of technical equipment. Curbing imports by reducing to the deterioration of the livelihood level, Negative misleading the purchasing power of income and pays for more poverty.
4. Excessive curbing of imports through reduction leads to a deterioration of the livelihood level, especially when there are no or no alternatives to domestic production.
5. The worst that affects any exchange system is the existence of an official and parallel exchange rate. Given these modest conclusions of the protests in Lebanon and Iran as part of the exchange rate analysis, where are the recent protests in Iraq approaching the two experiences? This answer calls for a return to a recent date in which we will clarify the procedures of monetary policy.
Despite the adoption of the traditional fixed exchange system since the end of 2008, the dinar shelf has been continuing towards the dollar peg for the years in 2017, as shown in Figure (2) iiiii. Iraqi dinar to US dollar for the year 2010 - 2019 CEF 1. 120 110 1220 Aug 2019 Fety, 2019 2018 feb 2018 2017 A feb 2017 ALL Aug 2016 1. 270 1320 Fat 2016 2015 March 2015 2011, February 2014 13 Dar 2013 and »F At 2012 feb 2012 and 10 TOP 2011 m 2010 Fire Fly, 2010 Source: Central Bank of Iraq, Statistical website.
Source: Central Bank of Iraq, Statistical Website Auto | It is noteworthy that volatility has decreased in 2017 and ended in 2018 and is still one of the objectives of monetary policy to ensure the performance of the dinar in controlling purchasing power and prevent the existence of two prices in the economy, a statement adopted by the author, `` no worse than the existence of a high or low exchange rate except the existence of two prices. ''
The stability of the dinar at ($ 1 = 1200) with a margin of volatility less than 1% (1190 - 1200 bar / $ 1) eliminated the impact of the implicit tax resulting from the depreciation of the currency on the various income segments, and kept the purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar at the target.
From 2004 to 2015, the relationship between the Bank's financial position and the balance sheet has not been established. The Central Bank has maintained an acceptable degree of legal and administrative independence, although the objective nature of the spring structure of the public budget in which we receive public revenues is in dollars. Spend in dinars, makes the money supply hostage and padda-treasurer, of your neighborhood
Stating the dollar to the dinar. Figure (3) helps in showing the relationship between the general budget and the bank's budget
Source: From the work of the researcher as a result of the double shock that faced the Iraqi economy in 2015 (low oil prices + ISIS gangs) and the Iraqi government faced a dilemma, the government banks and even some private banks, as well as the Central Bank to support the Treasury by providing loans While the Central Bank contributed to the discount of treasury transfers public banks and thus began a new relationship and assets of the financial position of the bank, which now includes domestic credit assets (Hawa and treasury bonds) besides foreign assets, and the volume of remittances and discounted bonds to 16 trillion R Iraqis almost for the years 2015.2016.
However, this has stopped since 2017 and until now, and the debt interest has been extended, as well as a modest amount of no more than 1. 5 trillion dinars for its installments. Therefore, we can say that the Central Bank has maintained an appropriate distance from the financial authority, which helped him to control inflation and ensure the stability of the exchange rate at the target since 2017 and until now.
Despite the success of monetary policy in managing the monetary mass through the nominal fixed exchange rate ", the mechanism of transfer of monetary policy impact and its decisions to the real sector (agriculture, service industry ) was not efficient because it was confined mainly to the import channel.
Such weaknesses due to the performance of the mechanism of retaliation Transmission Mechanism on Monetary Policy due to linkage with other macroeconomic variables, which was not controlled by the monetary authority because of the link with the performance of other financial and trade and employment policies, as well as weakness up to a state of lack of financial depth In the Iraqi economy, which can be described as financial fragility that does not allow the transition mechanism to work smoothly.
One of the most important problems faced by the monetary authority in Iraq is the extent of the exchange rate ability to affect the real economy, since the latter is the main refuge for economic growth, and therefore can not monetary safety alone a success of macroeconomic performance, although important.
Therefore, it is noted that there are proposals from some of the gentlemen calling for a reduction of the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar under the pretext:
A - The exchange rate of the dinar ($ 1 = 1200) exaggerated stimulates the import.
B. In their opinion, this high price represents a depletion of dollar wealth. Dahd and immediately if we dismantle these proposals find the following:
1 - It is normal that the dinar cannot be stimulated to export because of its relative lack of currency. The dinar and the dollar are convertible as long as the bank law number 56 of 2004 confirms the simple sale of foreign currency to its applicants. Without restrictions. Indeed, the bank believes that the problem of the real sector is not mabih, but lies in the unfair competition for the goods of neighboring countries brown resulting from the breeders of exchange rate reduction of these countries compared to the Iraqi dinar, and hence the complexity of the growth of real halls lies in the need for a wall as a customs of Iraq With neighboring countries that practice Iraq policy backed by a low exchange rate does not allow the domestic production sector to compete with
The local production sector is not allowed to compete, especially the low Aute. D) There are unofficial outlets through which various permissible and prohibited goods enter and therefore the origin of the customs tariff is the monetary alternative equivalent to the impact of the exchange rate policy (called the Exchange Rate War) of the neighboring countries that have not been achieved.
It was and can still be addressed by the customs wall, which is what all countries are doing, which has become a serious problem not only because of the decline in individuals achieved, but also the growth of national sectors of agriculture and industry when conducting a survey on the statistics of foreign trade (import) both national and We find that the volume of imports, including Kurdistan, is about $ 60 billion at a time when the customs revenue does not exceed $ 1 billion at best? ! Therefore, we continue to call for the application of tariff lists in quantitative and qualitative terms, otherwise growth will remain dependent on the oil sector only.
May The recent protests in the clairvoyant's economic (corruption, unemployment, service performance) withdrew to the depth of the political structure, but as far as monetary policy ask the following questions:
What would have happened if accompanied by these protests a reduction of the dinar (implicit tax high impact)? That is, if the claims of protesters accompanied a deep impoverishment. The protests are an initiative and participation that was relatively outside the framework of salaried state employees. Most salaries of employees are in the bracket (600, 000 - 1, 000, 000 dinars).
We conclude that the financial crisis represented by the low exchange rate leading to the erosion of power
Any devaluation would change the purchasing power of income downward without taking into account the modest income brackets. Find out that the financial crisis of the low exchange rate leading to the erosion of purchasing power in Lebanon and Iran differs from that in Iraq and if they are synchronized between them. (Forced in Lebanon) represents the worst monetary policy options.
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Mahmoud Mohamed Dagher - it's the exchange rate, gentlemen, editor
Don961: IMO ... IN OTHER WORDS ACCORDING TO THE LAST STATEMENTS OF THE ASTUTE PROFESSOR... KEEPING THE EXCHANGE RATE ARTIFICIALLY LOW ONLY HURTS THE PURCHASING POWER OF LOWER INCOME CITIZENS IN ADDITIONAL HIDDEN WAYS .
SOOOO .. IN LIGHT OF WHAT THE PROTESTORS ARE DEMANDING FOR DECENT JOBS , DECENT INCOMES AND DECENT LIVES ... THE ALTERNATIVE WOULD LOGICALLY BE TO STRENGTHEN THAT RATE ... INCREASE THAT PURCHASING POWER
DELTA: GOOD JOB DON AND SAMSON....
Dr. Mahmoud Mohamed Mahmoud Dagher IS General Director IN THE CBI Department of Financial Operations and Debt Management