A Number From Today and A Story About Tomorrow
Sep 8, 2021 by Morgan Housel
Every forecast takes a number from today and multiplies it by a story about tomorrow. Investment valuations, economic outlooks, political forecasts – they all follow that formula. Something we know multiplied by a story we like. The trick when forecasting is realizing that’s what you’re doing.
A few weeks before he died a reporter asked Franklin Roosevelt if the Yalta Conference negotiations near the end of World War II set the stage for permanent peace in Europe.
“I can answer that question if you can tell me who your descendants will be in the year 2057,” Roosevelt said. “We can look as far ahead as humanity believes in this sort of thing.”
The deals hammered out in Yalta were the things we knew. How long they’d hold, how much they’d be adhered to, and what else could get in their way is just a story people told and believed in varying degrees. Anything that tries to forecast what people will do next work like that.
The hard thing is that while the number we know today can be something real and verified, the story we multiply it by is driven by what you want to believe will happen or what makes the most sense. Forecasters get into trouble when the number we know from today gives an impression that you’re being objective and data-driven when the story about tomorrow is so subject to opinion.
When valuing a company, revenue/cash flow/profits is the number we know. The earnings multiple you attach to that figure is just a story about future growth.
Same with economic trends. We have lots of data, but none of it means much until you attach a story to it about what you think it means and what you think people will do with it next.
That seems obvious to me. But ask forecasters if they think the majority of what they do is storytelling and you’ll get blank stares. At best. It never seems like storytelling when you’re basing a forecast in data.
And while data-driven storytelling doesn’t mean guessing, it doesn’t mean prophecy.
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Turkiye: Kirkuk-Baniyas Pipeline Poses No Threat
2026-11-06 Shafaq News- Ankara The possible reopening of the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline between Iraq and Syria would not pose a threat to Turkiye's economy, Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Friday, adding that Ankara and Damascus could conduct joint offshore exploration in the future.
Good Morning Dinar Recaps,
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U.S. employers added far more jobs than expected in October, while unemployment edged lower, giving the Federal Reserve another reason to remain cautious about reducing interest rates.
KTFA
Friday Night Video
FRANK26….11-6-26…..THE GAP
This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only
Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie and Omar in Iraq and guests
Playback Number: 605-313-5163 PIN: 156996#
GP Q: US Treasury Signals Possible Shift in Debt Financing Strategy for 2027
11-6-2026
U.S. Treasury Signals Possible Shift in Debt Financing Strategy for 2027
In Washington today, the United States Treasury has kept its near-term bond auctions steady, yet a quiet change in official language has opened the door to a different way of financing America’s growing debt as early as 2027.
In its November 4 quarterly refunding statement, the Treasury said it anticipates maintaining current auction sizes for nominal coupon securities and floating-rate notes for the next several quarters.
Stern Drew: The Banking and Digital Lockdown has Started
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The Banking And Digital Lockdown Has Started
Riots in Paraguay as 3 million customers locked out of their own money due to AI cyberattack.
A French bank(Crédit Mutuel Arkéa) has been HACKED, with €118 million reportedly stolen in the process…
Bruce’s Big Call Dinar Intel Thursday Night 11-5-26
Transcribed By WiserNow Emailed To Recaps (INTEL ONLY)
(Political Comments not included in transcription)
Welcome, everybody, to the big call tonight. It is Thursday, November 5, and you're listening to the big call. Thanks for tuning in, everybody. I hope you had fun with our pre-recording trivia tonight. I sure did. I think Sue and Bob did. I hope so.
All righty, let's get into the intel segment now. (Political Comments not transcribed for posting)
The other thing is, if you think about it, we are transitioning to the restored republic. Everything that's happened with the Starlink satellite system, with the quantum financial system, with blockchain technology, with the cross-border international payment system, the SIP system, everything's been interconnected to flow and work together really well, and I believe that as a result, we're going to see a new a new restored republic as our form of government, which means this elections in and of itself could be a moot point. We'll see how it all goes.
Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps,
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Coffee with MarkZ, joined by Mr. Cottrell. 11/06/2026
Some highlights by PDK-Not verbatim
MarkZ Disclaimer: Please consider everything on this call as my opinion. People who take notes do not catch everything and its best to watch the video so that you get everything in context. Be sure to consult a professional for any financial decisions
MZ: It is Codeman Friday. Developments and confusion. We talk about the news and try to make it make sense. Mr. Cottrell joins us to take your questions then Lucas pops in.
KTFA:
Clare: Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi Discusses Regional Developments in Phone Call with U.S. President
Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi held a phone call today, Thursday, with U.S. President Donald Trump, during which they discussed the evolving situation in the region, security developments, and prospects for the next phase.
The call also addressed the importance of coordination and consultation between the two countries regarding current challenges, as well as efforts to support regional stability and prioritize dialogue and diplomacy in addressing crises, with a view to containing tensions and preventing the conflict from spreading.
Reset Intelligence: Trump's Envoy Is Back in Baghdad.
By Reset Intelligence | @EXIT_FIAT
2 days after America voted, Trump phoned Iraq's prime minister. About an hour later his envoy, Tom Barrack, was sitting in the prime minister's office in Baghdad.
Congress changed hands this week. Washington's work on Iraq did not stop for it.
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Good Morning Dinar Recaps,
GLOBAL DEBT RESET WATCH: DEVELOPING-COUNTRY DEBT HITS RECORD $9.4 TRILLION AS BORROWING COSTS CLIMB
Developing economies are borrowing more to meet their financial needs, but rising interest costs are consuming resources needed for infrastructure, healthcare, education, and long-term economic growth.
TNT:
Tishwash: Al-Daraji: Printing approximately 5 trillion Iraqi dinars in 50,000 dinar denominations
The Secretary-General of the "Kafa" Movement, Rahim al-Daraji, revealed today, Thursday, that approximately 5 trillion Iraqi dinars in 50,000 dinar denominations have been printed.
Al-Daraji stated in a post on his social media accounts, "According to a reliable source, approximately five trillion Iraqi dinars in 50,000 dinar denominations have been printed.
KTFA
Thursday Night Video
FRANK26….11-5-26…..50k IS OK
This video is in Frank’s and his team’s opinion only
Frank’s team is Walkingstick, Eddie and Omar in Iraq and guests
Playback Number: 605-313-5163 PIN: 156996#
MP Reveals Error In Calculating Dollar Exchange Rate In Budget Draft
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Now What?
Notes From the Field By James Hockman (Simon Black / Sovereign Man) November 5, 2026
Let’s take a deep breath think clearly for a bit.
My mind usually tracks to history and seeking wisdom from the past. But we don’t have to go back very far to see a pattern.
It was only six years ago that the entire world was in the throes of the Covid insanity. In the US, lockdowns, media hysteria, mask mandates, business closures, etc. had everyone stressed to the max.
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Liberty and Finance: 11-5-2026
Alasdair Macleod warns that the recent gold and silver selloff is masking a much deeper crisis: the accelerating collapse of fiat currencies.
He argues that rising energy costs, higher bond yields, and weakening consumer demand could trigger a serious economic slump, putting banks, private equity, insurance companies, and equity markets under mounting pressure.
Echo X: The New Financial System is Already Being Built
11-5-2026
THE ELECTION DOESN’T STOP WHAT’S ALREADY IN MOTION.
But understand something…
THE NEW FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS ALREADY BEING BUILT.
How To Protect Your Money From Rising Inflation
Esther Shaw Wed, October 21, 2026 a
Inflation is picking up pace once again.
Not only does this spell bad news for the cost of living, but rising prices can also have a detrimental effect on almost all areas of your finances: from your mortgage and savings to your pension.
In September, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation rose to 3.5pc, up from 3.1pc the month before, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The main factor causing the rise was cost increases to motor fuels.
MilitiaMan & Crew: Is This the Breakthrough? State Banks and Digital Files
11-6-2026
The Crew: Samson, PompeyPeter, Petra, Daytrader, Sunkissed, GIGI and Militia Man
Iraqi Dinar news update for November 6. We are analyzing the latest coordination between state banks and new digital files.
This update focuses on the ongoing shift toward formal channels for financial oversight. We examine recent documentation regarding state banks and how these institutions are coordinating to improve transparency and operational efficiency across the sector.