Is the US Headed Toward Recession?

Is the US Headed Toward Recession? [Podcast]

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  March 11, 2025

By the late 1920s, the US economy was booming and had advantages that most of the world did not yet enjoy.  Manufacturing in America was extremely competitive due to mass electrification powering factories. Farmers had traded out horses and mules for trucks and tractors.

US productivity was surging.

Global trade was still recovering from World War I, but there was enough sense at the League of Nations (the precursor to the United Nations) to campaign against trade barriers.

The final report from the World Economic Conference in 1927 concluded that “the time has come to put an end to tariffs. . .”

But America decided to move in the opposite direction.

Two politicians, Willis Hawley and Reed Smoot put forth a plan to impose steep tariffs that reached as high as 59.1% on some products.

The infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act passed in 1930, and almost immediately, countries around the world imposed their own retaliatory tariffs against the US.

Global trade plummeted as a result, which became a major factor in prolonging an almost never-ending and extremely painful economic depression.

I don’t think another Great Depression is in the cards right now, but frankly all these threats of tariffs are starting to have an impact.

Stock market investors are realizing that a recession is clearly on the table, and that business and consumer sentiment across the board have taken a nose dive.

That could all rebound just as quickly as it has fallen, but the larger point is that tariffs will absolutely make the country, and the world for that matter, much worse off.

The key reason is that tariffs force the economy to operate below its maximum potential.

Think about it on an individual basis. Imagine if Tom Cruise were sacking groceries instead of making movies. I think most people would probably acknowledge that creating multi-billion dollar box office hits is a hard thing to do, and sacking groceries would be below his potential.

The same goes for a trained and experienced neurosurgeon— picking turnips is not the best use of his or her time.

The US economy is certainly capable of producing just about anything. But there’s no point in deliberately producing below your potential— i.e. taking scarce talent and resources away from more valuable more productive sectors, and instead focusing that energy to make socks and underwear.

If an economy consistently underachieves its potential, everyone is worse off as a result— regardless of whether that results in a near-term recession.

The US has the potential in small-scale nuclear reactors, and emerging technology in AI, automation, robotics, and high-performance computing to create a level of abundance and prosperity that is almost unimaginable. That advantage is specific to the United States and that reality could be just a few years away because most of that technology exists or is close.

And that’s what the US needs to get out of its $36 trillion debt problem— a productivity and innovation driven economic boom.

Tariffs throw cold water on the whole thing.

This is what we discuss in today’s podcast.

We also touch on:

• Recent stock market swings

• The valuation of stocks now, and historically

• Who is investing in the stock market today

• What could drive investors into bonds

• And more.

You can listen here.

(For the audio-only version, check out our online post here.)

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/podcast/is-the-us-headed-toward-recession-podcast-152224/

Can Tariffs Replace the Income Tax? We Did the Math

Can Tariffs Replace the Income Tax? We Did the Math

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  March 10, 2025

It was the dead of night on March 22, 1929 somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico near the port of New Orleans, and the Canadian schooner I’m Alone was waiting to offload its illegal rum.

Prohibition had been in effect in the United States for nearly a decade at that point, which meant that the production, sale, transport, and distribution of any “intoxicating liquors” carried severe criminal penalties.

But prohibition didn’t end alcohol consumption. Americans still imbibed in secret thanks to a vast network of speakeasies, bootleggers, rum-runners, and moonshine distilleries. The black market thrived

I’m Alone was one of the vessels that would ferry alcohol back-and-forth between the Caribbean and the United States. Ordinarily it would linger in international waters, just beyond the legal jurisdiction of US authorities, while smaller speedboats smuggled its cargo of illegal booze to the shore.

But on that fateful night in the spring of 1929, the US Coast Guard was feeling a little overzealous. Officials pursued I’m Alone into international waters and intercepted it.

I’m Alone’s captain refused to surrender, and a midnight chase ensued. The Coast Guard ended up shelling them with explosives, and the ship sank. One crew member drowned, and the rest were taken into custody.

The problem, of course, was that I'm Alone was a Canadian vessel in international waters. So the fact that it had been shelled and sunk by the United States Coast Guard sparked an international dispute between the US and Canada.

After years of diplomatic wrangling, an international tribunal ultimately ruled in favor of Canada, determining that the US had overstepped its legal authority. The case resulted in a financial settlement, with a sum paid to the Captain, as well as the drowned sailor’s widow.

Prohibition finally ended in 1933... but the damage had been done. Consumer demand for alcoholic beverages never went away, so all Prohibition really managed to do was create an extremely lucrative black market for booze... thus turning small-time bootleggers into powerful, nationwide crime syndicates.

(Many of the most infamous criminals of the early 20th century, like Al Capone, made vast fortunes in bootlegging, or even got their start in it.)

Such unintended consequences are inevitable any time a government imposes nationwide prohibition... or imposes some crazy tax policy or regulatory burden: people always figure out a way around it.

There are places all over the world that have extremely high import duties, and you can see the results.

For example, I lived in Uruguay long ago, and, at least at the time, the country had some of the highest import duties in the world for automobiles. I remember a friend told me that he had paid $100,000 for a generic Ford F150 that should have cost around $20,000 (it was back in 2008).

Yet there was a flourishing industry of guys who figured out how to game the system, and bring in cars from nearby countries like Brazil or Paraguay without having to pay the insane import duties on motor vehicles. People figured out a way to avoid the tax.

Then there is India, which has imposed very high import duties on a variety of goods— including gold. Smugglers there have gone as far as shoving gold into their rectums in order to avoid the tax... proving not only that people will always figure out a way, but they’ll resort to the most ridiculous means necessary.

Or look at Thailand, where drug trafficking can carry the death penalty— yet you can still buy pot and cocaine just about anywhere. The threat of consequences doesn’t matter: people will still skirt the rules.

I say this all because there is obviously a big movement in the US towards tariffs now. Somehow this word has become “beautiful”. And there seems to be an idea that the US is going to generate so much revenue from tariffs that it could even replace the income tax.

Fat chance. Let’s do the math on that...

Individual income tax is the largest source of federal revenue in the United States, bringing in $2.4 trillion in FY 2024 according to Treasury data.

Meanwhile, total imports of goods into the US in 2024 was $3.3 trillion.

This means that, in order for tariffs to generate enough revenue to replace the $2.4 trillion in income tax, the tariff rate would have to be 73% across the board (i.e. 73% x $3.3 trillion in imports = $2.4 trillion in revenue).

Let’s be honest— there’s no way people will accept 73% tariffs. Just like during Prohibition, the black market would once again thrive in the United States as bootleggers smuggle in illegal... you know, toilet paper and other boring household items.

So more likely than replacing the income tax, Americans should be prepared to pay for tariffs in addition to income taxes.

Let’s assume tariffs are only 25%, so the US manages to bring in an extra $825 billion in revenue. Well, that would certainly bring the budget deficit down to a manageable level... which is a good thing.

But it also means that the average American household would be paying an additional $6,000 per year in taxes— and one that would hit the middle class the hardest.

(This assumes full compliance with the tariffs, which is laughable. Again, people will find ways around it, as they always have.)

Of course, part of the stated goal is that the US economy will start manufacturing these products at home, therefore imports will fall and the tariffs will be pointless.

But this is also a terrible idea. There is such a thing as competitive advantage... of ‘best and highest use’. Why would anyone want to bring industries back to the US which can be done cheaper, and more efficiently elsewhere?

Does anyone seriously want Americans pulling levers in a sock factory, or bent over in the fields tending to their turnips?

The US has abundant natural resources and a productive economy, and forcing inefficiencies onto it through protectionist policies is the wrong move. The best and highest use for the US economy is to create the world’s most valuable technological innovations, not produce socks and underwear.

Now, it’s possible that automation, AI, and cheap (nuclear) power could make America a global manufacturing powerhouse again.

But this won’t happen through tariffs. It will happen through investment, innovation, and competitive advantage.

If politicians want to generate more tax revenue, the answer isn’t to slap tariffs on imports and create a labyrinth of regulations.

The solution is economic growth. And that means lower taxes, and more importantly, less regulation.

Tariffs are at best a distraction, and at worst harmful to the economy. And a growing economy is exactly what the US needs to reverse its decline.

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/can-tariffs-replace-the-income-tax-we-did-the-math-152190/

China And Germany Are Leading The Next Round Of Global Inflation

China And Germany Are Leading The Next Round Of Global Inflation

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  March 6, 2025

Between press conference bust ups, tariff announcements, peace deals, and cryptocurrency reserve proclamations, it has been a busy month and a half.

Despite all this, our global economic outlook remains relatively unchanged: we’re still anticipating a pretty serious bout of inflation around the world, and I’ll explain why.

Inflation isn’t hard to understand. We all see it when we go to the grocery store, fill up our cars, or pay for tuition, daycare, or medical services.

The pandemic was the perfect illustration of how this happens; governments worldwide locked people in their homes, halting the production of goods and services. Meanwhile, they borrowed and ‘printed’ trillions of dollars, flooding the economy with money.

The obvious result was inflation. More money was chasing fewer goods and services, so prices for just about everything increased, from stocks, crypto, and real estate to eggs and bacon.

We’ve long argued that this trend will continue. And while there was a brief respite, this cycle of debt and central bank money printing is poised to accelerate again.

Germany, for example, just announced roughly €500 billion in spending, almost all of which will be fueled by debt. And that figure appears to be just a modest down payment in their overall spending plan. They want the rest of Europe to join them in this debt binge as well.

Bear in mind, Germany is supposed to be the ‘responsible’ country that lives within its means and spends conservatively. Yet practically overnight, they have adopted a ‘whatever it takes’ mentality, and are working to eliminate legal restrictions on government expenditures so that they can spend even more.

Not to be outdone, the Chinese Communist Party earlier this week announced its own spending bonanza designed to prop up the economy and increase consumer spending.

This is all literally just from the past few days. And the implications cannot be overstated. Similar to what we saw during the pandemic, the flood of new money into the global economy will be inflationary.

We also don’t think it’s going to stop with Germany or China. Most Western nations are poised to spend beyond their means... almost as if locked in a deficit-spending ‘arms race’. So, again, our inflationary outlook has not changed.

This is why we continue to view real assets as a safe haven.

It probably also helps that, in general, real assets are at a remarkably cheap spot in their market cycle, especially when compared to financial assets.

In fact, the last time real assets (commodities specifically) were this cheap relative to stocks was in 1999 at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Commodities and related industries surged 2,000% in the years that followed, dwarfing the returns of the Dow Jones and S&P 500.

We’ve paid very special attention to real asset businesses which are trading at laughably cheap valuations even while gold is near its all time high.

Here’s a great example— last month in our highest-level investment research service, The 4th Pillar, we highlighted a precious metals business operating in one of the worlds best jurisdictions. It has a pristine balance sheet and is quite profitable, yet its stock price trades at a mere 3 times forward earnings.

In our most recent edition, which will be sent to 4th Pillar subscribers tomorrow, is another precious metals business that has been completely overlooked by investors. It too is profitable and has a fantastic balance sheet, yet also trades at a multiple of less than 3.

It’s extremely uncommon to see such healthy, well-managed businesses have enormous growth potential, yet simultaneously be so inexpensive. As a comparison, many popular tech companies have Price/Earnings multiples in excess of 30 or 40.

It’s crazy when you think about it; gold has gone through the roof, yet extremely profitable gold-related companies have seen their share prices languish.

In other words, the share prices of these precious metals companies don’t reflect the fact that gold is already near its all-time high... and they certainly don’t reflect the additional upside potential that gold could continue to surge in the coming years as foreign central banks continue to trade part of their US dollar reserves for gold.

Our investment research service, the 4th Pillar, focuses very heavily on these deeply undervalued real asset businesses: profitable companies with fantastic balance sheets and serious growth prospects that are trading at ridiculous discounts right now.

We don’t believe this anomaly is going to last, i.e. gold surging to fresh, all-time highs, yet gold company share prices languishing.

For the past few weeks we’ve been offering an annual subscription to the 4th Pillar at a steep 50% discount as well. But this too won’t last. In fact we’ll be closing out our special, promotional offer in the next couple of days.

So if you’d like to learn more about the 4th Pillar investment research— and these deeply undervalued real asset businesses, click here for more information while the promotional offer lasts.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/china-and-germany-are-leading-the-next-round-of-global-inflation-152170/

The Controlled Demolition of the US Dollar’s Reserve Status

The Controlled Demolition of the US Dollar’s Reserve Status [Podcast]

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) March 5, 2025

Even during the darkest moments of the Biden administration—the shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan, 9% inflation, bureaucrats hell-bent on destroying the economy—I still said America’s problems were fixable.

But I didn’t see any hope in the previous administration or a prospective Kamala administration to fix things and only expected them to grow worse.

We’re now a month and a half into a new administration, and it’s fair to say some things are going very well.  There are others that, depending on your view, are not.

One big concern I have is that no one is interested in reforming Social Security—a massive entitlement program whose own trustees say will run out of money over the next several years. This is a gargantuan financial crisis in the making, a ticking time bomb that no one wants to touch.

Depending on your priorities, foreign relations are also on the list of concerns.

If you're more isolationist, you might think that the unwinding of relationships and alliances is no big deal—that the world needs America more than America needs the world.

But there are consequences to that...

$28 trillion of US government debt is coming due over the next four years, and a lot of that is owned by foreign governments and central banks.

The Treasury Department needs these players to go along and reinvest—not only in America but specifically in US government bonds.

And if relationships are too fractured, they might not be willing to do that.

That could create an enormous fiscal crisis that would most likely result in a lot of inflation.

It also puts into question the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, which it has enjoyed for more than 80 years.

The reality, however, is that while the short-term consequences of losing reserve status could be profound, in the long term, reserve currency status is not a requirement for economic prosperity.

There are plenty of countries around the world—Taiwan, Singapore, Switzerland, etc.—that are prosperous nations and do not have the global reserve currency.

In some respects, reserve status is a huge benefit, but also a bit of a handcuff.

In today’s podcast episode, we explore what we call the “controlled demolition” of America’s reserve status—a way for America to potentially remain powerful yet lose that reserve status.

That could be the outcome over the next four years.

And today, we discuss the paths and consequences of that scenario.

Spoiler Alert: It’s probably good for gold, and possibly crypto too.

Click here to listen in to today’s episode.

(For the audio-only version, check out our online post here.)

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/podcast/the-controlled-demolition-of-the-us-dollars-reserve-status-podcast-152164/

The Latest Bad Premise Could Be a Disaster for the US Dollar

The Latest Bad Premise Could Be a Disaster for the US Dollar

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) February 27, 2025

On October 20, 2022, Liz Truss resigned as UK prime minister after just 44 days in office—the shortest tenure in British history.

She was brought down not by a no-confidence vote or a party coup, but by a full-scale bond market rebellion.

Her government’s proposed mini-budget, featuring sweeping tax cuts, triggered a historic sell-off in UK government bonds (gilts), sending yields soaring and the pound crashing.

As panic spread, the Bank of England was forced to intervene to prevent a financial meltdown, and with markets, party members, and the public losing faith, Truss’s premiership collapsed.

Such is the fate of governments when they don’t control the global reserve currency.

The US government should heed this warning.

But it seems more likely to barrel ahead with the false premise: America will always remain THE dominant global superpower that can do whatever it wants.

That’s the subject of today’s podcast.

We discuss these types of false premises— Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, it will take just two weeks to stop the spread of COVID— mistakes that over and over cost the US trillions of dollars.

And nowhere is this more egregious today than in the idea that the US dollar will remain the reserve currency, whatever the US does to push other countries away.

We talk about how a series of laws has escalated the weaponization of the US dollar, starting with the PATRIOT Act in 2001, then FATCA in 2010, and the freezing of Russia’s US assets in 2022.

Now, the Mar-A-Lago Accord is being floated, which includes an idea to strong-arm US allies into swapping their US Treasuries for 100-year, non-tradeable, zero-coupon bonds.

After all, the argument goes, the US provides defense for much of the world, it is only right that other nations should pay for it in some way.

But we discuss why this is such a bad idea, and how it will only push countries into finding alternatives for the US dollar, robbing the US of its power to influence global affairs with the currency, and stripping the US dollar of much of its demand, and therefore value.

You can listen to the full podcast here.

(For the audio-only version, check out our online post here.)

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/podcast/the-latest-bad-premise-could-be-a-disaster-for-the-us-dollar-podcast-152145/

This Might Actually Work: America’s Golden Visa

This Might Actually Work: America’s Golden Visa

Notes From the Fiefld By James Hickman (Simon Black)  March 4, 2025

In 2012, Puerto Rico was in the depths of a nearly decade-long recession and looming debt crisis.

The island had lost about 10% of its population— mostly young, educated professionals, i.e., the most lucrative members of its tax base.

So politicians did something radical: they established incredibly attractive tax incentives in order to attract new residents. Among others, the incentives provide a 4% corporate tax rate to approved businesses, and a 0% tax rate on investment income.

This attracted thousands of individuals and businesses from the US mainland.

That’s because, while US citizens typically have to pay taxes to the US government no matter where they live or earn their income, Puerto Rico is a rare exception where bona fide residents can escape US federal income taxes, according to the US tax code.

And Puerto Rico’s tax incentives were successful in attracting a lot of wealth to the island. In fact, I moved there myself and established a business under the incentives.

Countries often use their tax or immigration policies to attract new residents or businesses.

Also in 2012, for example, Portugal was facing a severe economic crisis. So in response, the government introduced its golden visa program, which provided residency to individuals who purchased qualifying real estate in the country.

The plan worked: by 2023, Portugal had issued over 11,000 golden visas to investors and 18,000 members of their families, attracting around €7 billion in foreign investment.

But by late 2023, after locals became fed-up with rising real estate prices, Portugal ended the real estate investment option.

But Portugal’s success inspired other European nations to launch similar programs. Some, like Spain’s, are also being terminated due to its success and rising real estate prices, while others programs like Greece’s, have merely raised the investment requirement. Still other countries, such as Hungary, are introducing their own programs.

Now, the United States is considering a similar approach with what the President is calling the “Gold Card” instead of “Green Card”.

At first glance that may seem seem odd, given that the US is already a highly attractive destination for investors and foreigners.

But the US is also the most indebted country in the history of the world. And it has a notoriously horrible immigration system.

For example, why on earth does the “Green Card Lottery” exist? The US should be awarding permanent residency to the best and brightest immigrants, not randomly picking out of a hat who gets to come in.

Unlike current US investor visas, the proposed “Gold Card” would require a significantly higher investment of $5 million, which is pretty steep just for residency.

But once again, the program it would replace is idiotic.

The existing US Immigrant Investor Program, the EB-5, requires an investment of around $1 million.

But it requires investors to navigate the Byzantine US immigration system. This includes submitting a business plan to State Department bureaucrats, as if they’re qualified to judge the merits of a business.

The old EB-5 program has injected billions into the US economy, but it has also faced scrutiny for fraud and administrative backlogs.

This proposed “Gold Card” visa differs in that it there is no mandate to generate US jobs, and there is no cap on the number of visas they can issue.

So the theoretical upper limit on revenue is huge.

The President mused, “if we sell a million, that’s $5 trillion... If we sell 10 million, which is possible — 10 million highly productive people coming in... that’s $50 trillion. That means our debt is totally paid off, and we have $15 trillion above that.”

Based on our analysis, we don’t think that’s a realistic estimate.

Outside of the United States, there are only about 120,000 “Ultra High Net Worth” individuals globally who are worth more than $50 million, according to UBS’ latest Global Wealth Reports.

So at a price tag of $5 million, those 120,000 people would be the primary target.

Even if half of them came to the United States, which is an extremely high estimate, it would be $300 billion, which doesn’t really move the needle.

But if they were to reduce the price tag to, say, $1 million, especially if it could be paid over time, then the global market could potentially generate millions of applications, and the total revenue potential for the federal government could go into the trillions.

It’s also worth pointing out that new foreign residents who cough up a million dollars to become new US residents should have a significantly positive impact on the economy.

The President also teased an idea of providing tax incentives as well, that they would only owe tax on their US income, and not their foreign income.

Currently, citizens and Green Card holders owe tax to the US government on their worldwide income. What the President is referring to is known as “non-domiciled” or “non-dom” tax regime, where only income earned in the US would be taxed.

“Non-dom” tax regimes are nothing new. The UK had a very popular one until they screwed it up last year. As a result, many welathy foreigners who were living in London are now fleeing to places like Switzerland, where you can negotiate a tax deal directly with the government.

There’s no clearer contrast to the right and the wrong approach to attracting wealth and talent to your country.

America should be considering all its options if there is any hope of reversing the decline.

And this is a good sign of that mindset. However, the outcome is still far from certain.

On the other hand, from an individual American’s perspective, it’s great that there are already golden visa programs around the world that can help you diversify internationally with foreign residency, property ownership, and investment.

Because if you live, work, invest, and have everything you hold dear in one jurisdiction (which happens to be the most indebted government in the history of the world) that’s a significant risk.

With problems the size of America’s, you don’t want all your eggs in one basket.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/this-might-actually-work-americas-golden-visa-152159/

Get Ready to Pay

Get Ready to Pay for Paris Hilton’s New House [Podcast]

Notes From the Field by James Hickman  (Simon Black) January 14, 2025

In 1913, 24-year-old Charlie Chaplin arrived in Los Angeles, drawn by an offer from Keystone Film Company. Coming from a poverty-stricken childhood in London and a successful vaudeville career, Chaplin found in Los Angeles a place of limitless potential.

The city was largely undeveloped, surrounded by orange groves, open fields and dirt roads where coyotes still roamed. But it offered the perfect backdrop for the burgeoning film industry— mountains, oceans, deserts— and a chance to escape the constraints of traditional theater.

While San Francisco had flourished during the gold rush, Los Angeles was entering its own boom, fueled by filmmaking. Chaplin quickly became the silent era’s most famous actor, transforming the medium while the city grew into the heart of the movie industry.

Like Chaplin, Los Angeles embodied the spirit of creative freedom, shaping modern entertainment for a century.

The city, especially Hollywood, became synonymous with the film industry, and perhaps took that for granted.

Like California in general, LA assumed that however poorly it treated its residents, however burdensome the regulation, however high the taxes, people would still come flocking like there was gold in the hills.

If you ever wanted to be the author of your own decline, follow the example of California, and Los Angeles in particular.

Hollywood has chased away its own industry to burgeoning film locations like Georgia, New Mexico, and Toronto. Georgia especially is raking in the benefits from LA’s decline.

Los Angeles was a one industry town, and they chased it away.

They forced countless lockdowns on the city during COVID, even threatened to cut off water to those who dared to invite guests over. They declared themselves a sanctuary city against federal law, inviting illegals to enjoy a multitude of free benefits— then expected federal dollars to pay for it.

They cut police, and refused to enforce basic laws against things like shoplifting, or keep even serious criminals in prison. They destroyed education, from elementary to university.

And every business and individual is absolutely drowned in useless permitting.

Oh, and with all their idiotic spending priorities, somehow fire fighting, in an area prone to wildfires, seems to be the only thing they were unwilling to properly fund.

Who would want to continue doing business there? Or invest there? Or live there?

And tax revenue and talented workers are part of the exodus.

California ran things into the ground until they no long had money for basic services.

But hey, at least people can still get private insurance when the government fails them!

Oh wait, California has also run them out of town. Because of California’s regulatory burden many insurance companies no longer do business in the state. And that has left a number of people, including those whose homes have burned down, without insurance.

California has long relied on federal bailouts to fund all these idiotic policies. Their COVID lockdowns were paid for with federal tax dollars, and they’ve received bags of cash from the Biden administration to help pay for migrant care.

The damage from these fires could easily exceed $50 billion, and again, since they have chased away insurance companies, I have a funny feeling that California is going to have its hand out to the federal government once again to help people rebuild form a crisis that was not only preventable but a direct result of political incompetence.

Would you be surprised if the federal government came to their rescue, and US taxpayers ended up paying for poor Paris Hilton’s burned out mansion, because no one would give her insurance?

There used to be a saying, "As California goes, so goes the nation."

And to be frank, I think that’s right. The US itself has some deep challenges brought on by the last several years of horrific leadership and terrible priorities.

There is, starting next week, an opportunity to makes things right and get it back on track. And I am certainly rooting for them to pull it off.

If they don’t, we don’t have to wonder what the future of the US looks like— the whole world can see the failures of the left, in Los Angeles today, laid to waste.

And it is a snapshot of what might come if the incoming leadership isn’t able to right the ship.

Tune in to today’s podcast where we talk about this in greater depth, including at the end explaining our whole ethos on building a Plan B.

(For the audio-only version, check out our online post here.)

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/get-ready-to-pay-for-paris-hiltons-new-house-podcast-151973/

Warren Buffett’s Advice For Your Plan B

Warren Buffett’s Advice For Your Plan B

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  February 24, 2025

On February 27, 2009 the global financial crisis had been raging for five long months.

Many of us remember it like it was yesterday. Entire economies were ravaged. Some of the world’s largest businesses failed. Others only survived thanks to unprecedented government bailouts. Unemployment surged. Countless people lost their homes.

It was brutal— the worst economic crisis almost everyone had ever experienced. But Warren Buffett, aged 78 years young at the time, was still a cheerleader for America despite all the darkness and gloom.

He wrote to the world in his annual letter, which was released that day:

“Amid this bad news, however, never forget that our country has faced far worse travails in the past. In the 20th Century alone, we dealt with two great wars (one of which we initially appeared to be losing); a dozen or so panics and recessions; virulent inflation that led to a 21 1/2 % prime rate in 1980; and the Great Depression of the 1930s, when unemployment ranged between 15% and 25% for many years. America has had no shortage of challenges.”

In short, he wrote, “America’s best days lie ahead.”

Powerful words at such a dark time. Yet optimism has been Buffett’s consistent tone for decades.

But this weekend his 2024 annual letter was released, and it has a significantly different tone, including some very thinly-veiled criticism that politicians need to spend taxpayer money wisely, and to “maintain a stable currency, [which] requires both wisdom and vigilance”.

It’s hard to argue with that point. We’ve obviously been writing about this for 15 years. And it’s nice to see someone in Buffett’s position finally acknowledge that politicians should spend money responsibly and not run multi-trillion dollar budget deficits.

As it stands today, the US national debt exceeds $36.2 trillion. And in the last fiscal year alone, the government spent $2.4 trillion more than it collected in tax revenue.

In fact according to the government’s own financial report, the single largest increase in cost was interest on the federal debt, which ballooned to more than $1.1 trillion— exceeding even military spending.

As we’ve written many times in the past, if this trend isn’t corrected very quickly, the consequences will likely result in extremely painful inflation.

Buffett acknowledges this when he writes, “Paper money can see its value evaporate if fiscal folly prevails. In some countries, this reckless practice has become habitual, and, in our country’s short history, the U.S. has come close to the edge.”

True statement. In fact the US is pretty close to the edge right now.

There is a very narrow window of opportunity for the government to cut the deficit, balance the budget, and restore confidence. And it’s obvious that some people are trying really hard to make this happen.

But there’s certainly no guarantee they’ll be successful... which is why it makes so much sense to have a Plan B.  Coincidentally, Buffett offers some advice on this front.

For starters, he suggests that a great business can be an excellent hedge against inflation, stating that they “will usually find a way to cope with monetary instability as long as their goods or services are desired by the country’s citizenry.”

I couldn’t agree more. We’ve been writing about this for a long time, in particular that real assets make sense because they are the most important, vital, critical resources in an economy.

In more difficult times, including during inflation, people tend to really prioritize how they spend their money. Recreation, luxuries, and frivolous purchases are curtailed. And essential staples like food, energy, healthcare, and other critical categories become the most important.

Businesses similarly cut back on expensive perks and wasteful moonshots and instead invest in productive technologies which enhance their bottom lines.

This aligns entirely with Buffett’s view that “desired” goods and services will still be successful. I would clarify further that “critical” and “essential” goods and services will be successful, especially if they can be exported abroad.

Speaking of looking abroad, Buffett also talks about Berkshire Hathaway’s growing holdings in Japan, under the headline, “Berkshire Increases Its Japanese Investments.”

In my view this is one of the most essential parts of a Plan B— international diversification.

If you live, work, invest and hold all of your savings and assets in the same country, this is the equivalent of putting all of your eggs in one basket. If something goes wrong in that single country, everything you’ve worked to achieve over your entire life can be put at risk.

It’s 2025, not the 15th century anymore. Today it’s easy to diversify around the world. Like Buffett, you can invest a portion of your savings abroad in different economies and currencies.

And money aside, you can also diversify many things in your personal life. You can have a second home abroad, a second residency, and a second passport. You can seek high quality inexpensive healthcare overseas. You can send your children abroad to university to receive a fantastic education at a fraction of the price.

International diversification is a very sensible strategy that rational people take very seriously.

And diversifying abroad doesn’t mean that someone is paranoid, pessimistic, or unpatriotic. I doubt Warren Buffett feels any shame or guilt for diversifying a portion of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio in the Japanese economy.

As a final point on the topic of investing Buffett writes that, “often, nothing looks compelling.”

By this he means that many times investments seem very expensive. This has been the case with a number of popular companies whose stock prices trade for outrageously high valuations.

For value investors like Buffett who want to buy “wonderful businesses at a fair price,” the best option is to sit patiently and wait for the right buying opportunity.

Yet “very infrequently”, he writes, “we find ourselves knee deep in opportunities.”

And it is in these moments that he becomes very greedy (his word, not mine) to scoop up high quality assets on the cheap.

We’ve been writing for quite some time that there is such an opportunity now.

Gold is presently hovering at an all time high, and there is scope for it to go much higher. If the current deficit trend in the United States continues, we could see $5,000+ gold over the next few years, due primarily to foreign central banks trading their dollars and Treasury bonds for gold.

Yet, despite gold being at an all-time high, there are extremely efficient, well-managed, profitable gold companies with pristine balance sheets whose shares are trading at laughably cheap valuations.

This mismatch doesn’t make any sense. And it absolutely will not last.

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/warren-buffetts-advice-for-your-plan-b-152129/

The US Government Has To Sell $28 Trillion Of Debt In The Next 4 Years

The US Government Has To Sell $28 Trillion Of Debt In The Next 4 Years

Notes From the Field BY James Hickman ( Simon Black )  February 19, 2025

Last summer, the Federal Reserve wanted you to believe that inflation was a thing of the past.

Sure, just about every category of consumer goods had increased in price. Electricity rates had increased 5% year over year. Rent and housing costs were up 5%. Hospital care had become 6% more expensive. Food prices were up. Fuel prices were up. Auto insurance had risen by a whopping 18.6%.

Yet, bizarrely, the overall inflation average was just 2.9%. And based on that number alone, the Federal Reserve had all but declared victory against inflation.

We knew it was BS. And, after diving into the numbers, it didn’t take us very long to realize why.

It turned out that, back in the summer of 2024, used car prices were falling dramatically— down around 11% year-over-year.

You probably remember what happened: during the pandemic, supply chain snarls and factory closures caused used car prices to go through the roof. Eventually, prices peaked... and then started to fall.

By July 2024, used car prices were still on their way down... essentially returning to a more ‘normal’ level. And based on the way that the government calculates inflation, the huge drop in used car prices dragged down the overall average, making the headline inflation rate appear smaller than it really was.

We wrote about this last summer. And we predicted that the decline in used car prices would soon cease... essentially eliminating the key drag that was holding the inflation rate down.

That has now happened. And as of last month, used car prices are no longer falling... and the overall rate of inflation is once again on the rise.

This is where our discussion begins in today’s podcast, and it’s an important one. We talk about why, at this point, lingering inflation is a major challenge. And it’s becoming a more likely scenario.

There are obviously some forces within the government that are working really hard to cut spending. There are also legions of misguided (or flat-out corrupt) politicians who are fighting to prevent those budget cuts from happening.

It’s a see-saw right now and could go either way. But, at least for now, the government is still spending taxpayer money like a drunken sailor.

Last year’s budget deficit was nearly $2 trillion. They’re already on track to repeat that this year. All of that deficit spending adds to the $36+ trillion national debt.

But what makes matters even worse is that an unbelievable $28 trillion of the national debt will have to be refinanced over the next four years, according to Federal Reserve data. (We show you the Fed’s data in the podcast— it’s a chart you’ll want to see.)

The key problem, of course, is that interest rates are significantly higher today than they were several years ago. So when the Treasury Department refinances that $28 trillion in debt, it will be at a MUCH higher rate.

Think about it— if most of that debt was sold at a 2% rate, but now they have to refinance at 5%, then that’s an extra 3% interest to pay on $28 trillion— or $840 billion per year in additional interest.

Remember that the government’s interest bill is already $1.1 trillion per year. So in four years it could easily eclipse $2 trillion per year. Again, this is just the amount of interest.

It’s also pretty clear that a lot of foreign governments and central banks— who own a huge chunk of that $28 trillion which needs to be refinanced— are looking to diversify away from the dollar.

It’s already happening; obviously there are the loudmouthed BRICS countries that have started trading with one another in their own currencies, and thus begun reducing their dollar holdings. But even supposed ally nations in Europe are starting to trade their US dollar reserves for gold.

This is setting up a precarious situation... because if foreign governments and central banks continue reducing their dollar exposure, then who is going to buy up all that $28 trillion worth of US government debt that needs to be refinanced?

Well, the only remaining lender is the Federal Reserve. And as we’ve discussed before, the Fed buys government bonds by printing money... which ultimately causes inflation.

During the pandemic, the Fed printed $5 trillion and we got 9% inflation. Over the next four years the Fed might have to print a good chunk of that $28 trillion just to help refinance US government debt. So what will inflation be? No one knows. But probably not their magical 2% target.

The only way out is to slash government spending. And certainly there is a lot of low hanging fruit for DOGE to cut, which could get the deficit (and therefore inflation) under control.

But this is far from a risk-free proposition. And that’s why it still makes so much sense to have a Plan B.

We discuss all this, and more, in today’s podcast— and we hope you take time to listen in here.

(For the audio-only version, check out our online post here.)

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/podcast/the-us-government-has-to-sell-28-trillion-of-debt-in-the-next-4-years-podcast-152106/

Is This the Biggest Heist of All Time?

Is This the Biggest Heist of All Time?

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) February 11, 2025

We recently received a question from a reader asking for my thoughts on crypto.

He said we’ve been talking about gold a lot lately, the gold price, and how the price could go a lot higher. Shouldn’t we hold the same views on crypto, given everything that has happened with Bitcoin over the last year or so?

We ended up doing a whole podcast about this today, We talk a lot about gold, and a lot about crypto. To clarify, I’m not anti-crypto. In fact, I brought Bitcoin to our audience’s attention back in 2013, when the price was under $100.   But there are some differences to gold.

Right now, I think there are some major catalysts that could drive the price of gold much higher. It’s a matter of arithmetic, and we walk you through the math on it.

The other important thing is that while gold is at an all time high, gold related businesses have been in the dumps for a long time. And that’s a bizarre anomaly that is simply not going to last.

Conversely, that same dynamic doesn’t seem to exist with crypto related businesses.

And we talk about, in today’s podcast, Microstrategy, as perhaps the best example.

This is essentially now a Bitcoin holding company, with 478,000 Bitcoin, valued at around $45 billion. Yet Microstrategy’s market cap is almost double that.

So if the point is to buy Microstrategy stock as a proxy for Bitcoin, you’re actually paying double the price.

Versus with gold, we have the opportunity to pay less than two times forward earnings for gold companies that have an all in production cost of $1,500 per ounce— roughly half the price of gold.

So it’s a completely different dynamic, and we explore all this and more in today’s podcast.

We even talk about the Microstrategy convertible notes, and why it’s frankly wildly inappropriate at this point to even compare “crypto” and gold.

You can listen to the podcast here.

(For the audio-only version, check out our online post here.)

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/podcast/is-this-the-biggest-heist-of-all-time-podcast-152072/

With Gold At an All Time High

With Gold At an All Time High, This Gold Company is Still Insanely Cheap

Notes From The Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) February 10, 2025

And almost on cue, gold is at another all time high today and rapidly closing in on $3,000 per troy ounce.

It’s not hard to understand why.

We’ve been talking about this for quite some time— foreign governments, central banks, and even some large foreign corporations now are trading their dollars for gold. And that’s going to have some unfortunate, negative consequences for the US.

I’m sincerely pulling for Elon and DOGE. I really am. And I think they’ve got a great shot at cutting hundreds of billions of dollars from the federal budget. These guys aren’t messing around and have no qualms about cutting everything that doesn’t make sense.

I also hope Congress and the White House find the courage to make critical reforms to Social Security (though I am less optimistic about that one).

And the final piece to the puzzle of getting America back on track, of course, is slashing regulation and getting back to capitalism. There certainly seems to be a lot of momentum in this direction.

The math is pretty clear: if they manage to succeed at these key challenges, then there is a good chance for the US to grow its way out of debt. But even that is going to take many, many years.

In the meantime the Treasury Department will still need to rely heavily on foreigners to buy (and continue to hold) US government bonds.

I’ve explained before that foreigners own roughly half of all fixed-rate, “marketable” US government debt. So they’re a pretty important lender.

And in order for this turnaround plan to work, the Treasury Department will need those foreign bondholders to keep investing and reinvesting in America’s national debt.

But right now there are a lot of foreign countries that are deeply concerned about holding US Treasury securities. This administration has already threatened even its friends and neighbors with tariffs, and the last administration had an endless fetish for sanctions.

Think about it like this: imagine you hold a good chunk of your money in a faraway bank, and your banker was constantly threatening to freeze your account and cut off access to your funds.

Sure, maybe it’s a very nice and prestigious bank. But after so many threats, would you still keep all of your money there? Would you still want your paycheck direct deposited into that bank, month after month? Or would you start looking around at alternatives?

That’s what’s driving the gold price right now. Foreign governments and central banks are wary about holding official US securities, gold is the most viable alternative. Just like dollars, gold has universal marketability— no central banker is worried about whether they’ll ever be able to sell their gold.

Plus virtually every other government and central bank owns gold, which means it can already be used to settle current and capital account deficits if necessary.

Concern over sanctions, inflation, and America’s gargantuan national debt led foreign officials to buy up more gold over the past couple of years. Overall, they made roughly $80 billion in excess gold purchases in 2023-2024, causing the gold price to jump from about $1,800 to over $2,900.

$80 billion is a drop in the bucket for foreign governments and central banks; they have 100x that much worth of US dollar reserves.

So if $80 billion of excess purchases resulted in a $1,000+ price jump in the gold price, what will happen if they buy $1 trillion or more in gold? That’s the potential scenario that could play out.

Either way, gold is at an all-time high today. But, quite bizarrely, gold-related companies are still at ridiculously cheap levels.

To give you an example, there is a company we presented not long ago to subscribers of The 4th Pillar, our premium investment research service; it’s a profitable gold company with an excellent, clean balance sheet, very little debt, and strong growth. In fact the company even pays a healthy dividend to shareholders.

Yet when we published our research on the company, it was only valued at a mere 5x Free Cash Flow. That’s practically nothing.

The stock has now more than doubled in price as some investors are starting to realize what we discovered and presented to our subscribers many months ago.

But even now, because current and projected earnings have continued to increase, the company is still extremely undervalued even though it doubled in price.

We still see a number of similar opportunities, i.e. gold-related businesses that may be paying strong dividends, have debt-free balance sheets, and are profitable, yet still trade at outrageously low valuations despite gold’s all-time high.

Another report we sent out to our premium subscribers just last week profiled an undervalued gold mining company that has an all-in production price of just $1,500 per ounce. And yet the business is valued at TWO times its expected earnings this year.

It’s really unusual to see such an anomaly, and it almost certainly will not last.

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/with-gold-at-an-all-time-high-this-gold-company-is-still-insanely-cheap-152066/

The “Wait and See” Phase for Gold is Over

The “Wait and See” Phase for Gold is Over

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  February 6, 2025

In the year 1025, the Byzantine Empire stood at the height of its final golden age.

Basil II had just died, leaving behind a vast and wealthy empire stretching from Southern Italy to Armenia.  At the heart of its economy was the solidus, a gold coin that had served as the bedrock of Mediterranean trade for centuries. Merchants from Venice to Baghdad had so much confidence in its purity that the solidus became the primary currency for international trade as far away as China.

And this ‘reserve currency’ status allowed Byzantium to project economic power far beyond its borders.

But as the empire declined, so did its currency. Successors debased the solidus to cover military costs, mixing in copper and silver until it was barely recognizable.

By the late 11th century, merchants could no longer rely on the Byzantine government to maintain the purity of the solidus... so traders turned to a new, up-and-coming alternative: the Venetian ducat.

This pattern has repeated itself for thousands of years: reserve currencies come and go, and are eventually displaced by another.

Before the solidus, Rome had set the standard with its denarius, but centuries of inflation and political collapse led to its demise.

After Venice, the Spanish real de ocho became the world’s preferred trade currency, thanks to galleons loaded with New World silver. When Spanish power faded, the Dutch guilder took over, only to be replaced by the British pound sterling, which reigned until two world wars left Britain financially exhausted.

Even the US dollar, during its first two and a half decades as the global reserve currency, was based on gold, until in 1971, the dollar was removed from the gold standard.

The whole concept of fiat currency (i.e. paper currency which relies entirely on trust and confidence of the issuing government) holding coveted reserve status is a new phenomenon.

That means trusting the largest debtor in the history of the world, trusting the US financial system, abiding by the US government’s regulations, and dealing with the whims of their central bank—despite its mismanagement, soaring debt, and reckless policies.

So much can go wrong. And at some point in the future—whether years or decades from now—the US dollar will lose its status as the world’s reserve currency.

No currency has ever held that title forever, and it’s naive to assume the dollar will be the exception.

When that moment comes, future historians will look back in astonishment, wondering how it lasted as long as it did. Because a system built entirely on trust can only survive as long as that trust remains.

And for most of this century, the US government has proven time and again that it cannot be trusted.

We explore this topic in depth in today’s podcast, and discuss how and why gold will be the beneficiary of the dollar’s loss.

We also discuss:

• The short term “wins” possible by using tariffs as a political tool

• The long term damage to the dollar done by threatening allies

• What could replace the dollar as the global reserve currency

• The benefits of holding physical gold (for individuals and central banks)

• Investments that offer exposure to gold’s upside, without paying all time highs for physical bullion

We also mention a gold company that we are profiling this month for subscribers to our investment research newsletter, The 4th Pillar, which focuses on real asset investments.

You can listen to the podcast here.

(For the audio-only version, check out our online post here.)

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/the-wait-and-see-phase-for-gold-is-over-podcast-152055/

How to Buy Gold at Just $1,500 an Ounce

How to Buy Gold at Just $1,500 an Ounce

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  February 5, 2025

In the late 1990s, the Internet was brand new... and sizzling hot. And most people thought it would bring radical change to the world, practically overnight.

This is a common theme with disruptive technology. Enthusiasts often overestimate the impact of new technology in the short run, and underestimate its impact in the long run. Such is the case with AI today.

But the euphoria over the Internet in the 1990s compelled investors to pour money into Internet startups— companies with no profits, no cash flow, and no real business model.

In fact, a joke emerged from this era which perfectly described many of these infamous dot-coms: “We lose money on every sale, but we make up for it in volume.”

But it didn’t matter. Dot-coms were the meme companies of their day. And even the most ridiculous businesses that claimed to have anything to do with the Internet commanded outrageously high valuations.

Meanwhile, actual real businesses that didn’t have anything to do with the Internet, like boring old ExxonMobil, were completely ignored by investors.

Exxon was a great example because oil prices at the time sat at a modest $30 per barrel, and most people simply assumed that oil would stay cheap forever. So Exxon traded at just 11 times earnings, generated over $17 billion per year, and even paid a healthy dividend to the shareholders who had the foresight to own it.

Common sense eventually prevailed, and all of the pie-in-the-sky dot-coms went to money heaven. And the real businesses, like Exxon, survived the hype cycle and prospered.

Today, there are plenty of super sexy businesses which have become incredibly popular with investors. A lot of them are really overvalued.

And just like Exxon back in the late 1990s, nobody is paying attention to other profitable, extremely undervalued, real asset businesses.

Personally I think oil could get a lot more expensive from here. And there are some really undervalued oil companies to consider, just like there were in the 90s.

But the really obvious example I want to talk about today is gold.

Gold is still hovering near its all time high. And as we’ve discussed many times before, there are a number of catalysts which could drive the price much higher from here.

There has already been a coordinated effort by several countries to de-dollarize.

BRICS— Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa— hold conferences explicitly discussing how to move away from the US dollar. And both the amount of global trade in dollars, as well as the share of American dollars held as reserves by central banks, has been steadily declining.

Central banks and foreign governments own trillions worth of US dollar reserves. And the reason the gold price reached this all time high, is because those foreign governments and central banks traded a tiny percentage of their dollars for gold.

That additional demand was enough to send the gold price soaring to almost $3,000.

So if this anti-dollar trend continues—or even accelerates— we could see $5,000 or even $10,000 plus gold.

These foreign governments and central banks, however, only buy physical gold. They do not buy shares in gold companies.

So while the gold price is near its all time high, gold companies are trading at ridiculously low levels.

Here’s a great example.

The company that we’re profiling in the upcoming edition of our investment research newsletter, The 4th Pillar, is one such undervalued gold business.

It’s a mining company with outstanding properties and a fantastic long term earnings horizon. It operates in an absolutely tier-one jurisdiction with minimal geopolitical risk— i.e. not the Congo or Nicaragua.

Its balance sheet is pristine with no debt. Yet they have a very strong cash position.

Due to their operating efficiencies, their production cost is quite reasonable at around $1,500 for every ounce of gold that they mine.

Yet the market is valuing them at a low, single digit multiple.

I would encourage you to check out our research to find out more.

I think it’s well worth the price of a subscription— especially because right now we’re having a limited time promotion on The 4th Pillar.

The full report on this particular gold company will be sent to 4th Pillar subscribers over the next few days.

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/how-to-buy-gold-at-just-1500-an-ounce-152049/