“Oops! We’re a Major Silver Producer Now”

“Oops! We’re a Major Silver Producer Now”

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  November 20, 2025

When mining superintendent Marcus Daly arrived in Butte, Montana in the late 1870s to evaluate a cluster of silver prospects, it was a mundane business trip— the mad western gold rush was over by then.

The area was known for its patchy silver veins, and Daly’s job was to decide whether there were still any mines worth buying.  All the ‘experts’ thought the boom was over. Gold and silver had fallen out of favor... and mines were selling for less than the value of the dirt.

So when Marcus Daly went underground at a modest site called the Anaconda, he noticed the ore didn’t look like a typical silver deposit... and that something much bigger was hiding below.

Daly pushed for the property’s purchase—about $30,000 which would be about $1 million today. His reasoning? Beneath the silver veins, Daly had spotted a massive copper system.

The timing couldn’t have been better for a nation racing into an industrial age.

Telegraph lines, electrical wiring, motors, early power systems — America was devouring copper as fast as anyone could pull it out of the ground. And Daly’s discovery pushed the Anaconda operation from a forgettable silver claim into one of the engines of American industrial growth.

For years, that copper carried what became the Anaconda Copper Mining Company.

Output scaled, profits climbed, and Butte became synonymous with industrial metal.

But the silver never went away. As miners pulled the copper out of the ground, they were also extracting silver... which was sort of ‘in the way’ of the copper.

At first the silver was just an afterthought; Anaconda was a copper company, plain and simple. They just happened to mine some silver, almost begrudgingly, as an afterthought. And throughout the early 20th century and the Roaring 20s, nobody paid attention.

Then the Great Depression hit.

Copper demand—and prices—collapsed almost overnight as factories slowed, construction stalled, and electrical projects were shelved indefinitely.

Anaconda took a beating like everyone else—but it didn’t fold.

The “accidental” silver kept generating revenue even as the industrial economy stalled... and that silver revenue kept Anaconda alive when competitors were going out of business left and right.

It gave the company the diversification it needed to survive the worst phases of the worst commodity cycle — and stay standing when others didn’t.

This is far from an isolated incident—the mining industry is no stranger to these necessary pivots.

And it’s also not just a quirky footnote— it’s the kind of setup that gives investors a chance to buy into something most investors write-off.

For example, the latest edition of our premium investment research newsletter featured a company that ordinarily mines a critical industrial metal—one that’s necessary for all modern technology.

Funny thing is, this company also just happens to produce gold and silver.

They never set out to be precious metals miners. In fact, the company has been extremely successful in its core industrial metal business.

But with gold and silver prices hovering near all-time highs, the company is now minting profits from precious metals. Revenue is through the roof, but shareholders of the business are basically getting all of it for free.

That’s because, right now, the company’s stock is trading at a fairly low multiple JUST based on its industrial mining revenue... which means the market is valuing all the gold and silver production at zero. That’s completely absurd.

Overall this company trades at just FOUR times earnings. At that valuation, even if it were just an industrial producer, it would still be undervalued.

But it also produces enough silver to be close to a top 10 producer in the world.

There’s no rational reason for this business to be selling for such a cheap price. Yet the recent selloff in gold and silver prices only made it cheaper. Some mining companies fell 30%, even though they're still raking in record profits.

To your freedom,         James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/oops-were-a-major-silver-producer-now-153915/?inf_contact_key=f0a788da85fc4d6a6683a85762244fc59ee4b048ce23149d13a848abfdc3679b

Record High Debt = Record High Gold Price

Record High Debt = Record High Gold Price

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  November 11, 2025

Barrick Mining Corporation—one of the world’s largest and most established gold producers—just reported its third quarter earnings yesterday— and it was an absolute blowout.

The company reported third quarter profit of $1.3 billion, nearly triple last year’s Q3 earnings.

And for the first nine months of 2025, Earnings per Share is up a whopping 132% over the same period last year. Free Cash Flow is up an astonishing 176%.

The company further announced that they’re raising the dividend by 25% and expanding the company’s share buyback authorization by an additional $500 million, after already repurchasing $1 billion worth of shares under the prior program.

And what’s perhaps even more striking is that these record profits were based on an average gold price of $3,200. This means that the company’s Q4 earnings (which we’re nearly halfway through) should be MUCH higher given that gold has averaged $4,041 so far this quarter.

Our readers won’t be surprised to hear any of this; we’ve been saying for the past few years that gold was going to go much higher— specifically because foreign governments and central banks have been buying gold by the metric ton to diversify their strategic reserves away from the US dollar.

This trend isn’t going away.

Between the government shutdown fiasco, the rising $38+ trillion US national debt (up $500 BILLION just in the last six weeks), extreme political dysfunction in Congress and the courts, etc., foreign governments and central banks are continuing to literally buy tons of gold, even at record high prices.

We also wrote that gold companies (including miners like Barrick) would benefit substantially from rising gold prices.

So, just as we predicted, Barrick (among other gold miners) is raking in record profits, and its stock price has doubled this year alone— outpacing gains from Oracle, Nvidia, Palantir, and pretty much every major large cap company in the market.

But here’s what’s really amazing— despite such stellar performance, many of these gold companies are still cheap.

Barrick stock, for example, is near its all-time high. Yet the company is still valued at less than NINE times forward earnings— and that’s assuming gold doesn’t go up further from here.

(And even if the gold price tanks, Barrick will still be a profitable, dividend-paying, modestly valued business. Remember, Barrick’s record profits are based on $3,400 gold!)

Smaller gold companies— the ones that we focus on in our premium investment research— are even cheaper.

One of the gold miners we’ve featured is already up 4x this year. Yet it still trades at just 3.5 times forward earnings. The company is extremely shareholder-friendly and has a pristine balance sheet with zero net debt. Oh, and did I mention they pay a substantial dividend?

The gold price could collapse to less than $3,000 and this company would still be wildly profitable.

Could that happen? It’s possible. Even during the 1970s when gold rose from $35 to $850, gold suffered a major pullback in 1975. The pullback was temporary, and gold rose over 8x from there.

That’s because the fundamentals driving gold’s rise during the 1970s hadn’t really changed.

After Richard Nixon formally ended the Bretton Woods system in August 1971, foreign governments and central banks rapidly began selling their US dollars for gold.

As the decade progressed, foreigners became increasingly concerned about US deficits, government dysfunction (Watergate in 1973), global instability, waning US power, and more.

And despite a brief pullback in gold prices, this trend continued until the early 1980s, when the election of Ronald Reagan restored confidence in America’s might and fiscal discipline. It was only at that point that gold prices started to fall.

This same trend is unfolding today, and it’s not hard to understand: the record high US national debt = record high gold price.

Foreign governments and central banks remain deeply concerned about America’s fiscal condition, and gold is one of the few assets available for them to diversify their US dollar holdings.

Just like in the 1970s, we expect this trend to continue until Congress proves that it can act like  grownups and be fiscally responsible.

In the meantime, we anticipate gold— and gold companies— to continue to perform very well. Again, many are posting record profits yet are still insanely undervalued. We do not expect this anomaly to last.

To your freedom,    James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

 https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/record-high-debt-record-high-gold-price-153870/?inf_contact_key=469490d20eb1a2068aaffcd8431b11d7266def61f88c0e3dcc6731a9f494e737

Podcast: These Three Central Banks are SELLING Gold

Podcast: These Three Central Banks are SELLING Gold

Notes From the Field By  James Hickman (Simon Black)  November 12, 2025

We sincerely hope the House of Representatives can pull itself together and get the government back open this week.

Not because we love federal bureaucracy—but because this shutdown is embarrassing, and it continues to chip away at the rapidly declining confidence that foreign governments and central banks have in the United States.

This matters. Foreign governments and central banks collectively own $10+ trillion of US government bonds and other agency securities.

And given how rapidly the national debt is rising, the Treasury Department needs every lender they can get.

Up until recently, foreigners have always happily stocked up on US government bonds— which were traditionally viewed as THE world’s “risk free” asset.

But over the past few years, they’ve seen endless financial chaos and political dysfunction.

They watched Joe Biden shake hands with thin air. They watched the humiliating US withdrawal of Afghanistan. They watched millions of migrants stream across the US border with impunity, then be showered with taxpayer benefits. They watched TWO assassination attempts on a Presidential candidate.

Then, even after last year’s election, they watched the richest guy in the world willingly roll up his sleeves to help eliminate federal waste and cut the deficit— only to get chased out of town by politicians who are addicted to fraudulent spending.

They’ve watched extreme political dysfunction, with two sides who can’t agree on anything... including the most basic task of keeping the government open.

They’ve watched deficits grow and the national debt spiral to $38 trillion. They watched the debt grow by HALF A TRILLION dollars just over the past SIX WEEKS when the government was supposedly closed.

In short, if you were a foreign government or central bank, there’s little chance you would look at Congress and think, “these are serious, responsible people.”

Quite the opposite. In fact you would probably think that it’s time to start cutting your Treasury holdings and back away from the US dollar. After all, the United States Congress doesn’t exactly look “risk free” any longer.

Foreigners understand that a time is coming—sooner rather than later—when the US dollar will no longer be the dominant global reserve currency. Many central banks still hold nearly 100% of their reserves in US dollars. They know they need to diversify.

And we’ve written about this many times before— the #1 asset that they’re purchasing right now is gold.

It’s not because these foreign central bankers and finance ministers are irrational gold bugs. Instead, they understand that gold is nearly the only asset that (1) is universally accepted, (2) carries zero counterparty risk, and (3) has a large enough market to absorb hundreds of billions of dollars in capital flows.

That’s why, from Poland to Ghana to Kazakhstan, central banks have been buying gold in record quantities. It’s not just China.

China is the most desperate. They hold hundreds of billions in US dollar assets as part of their strategic financial reserves, and the Communist Party is extremely concerned—because they see a real possibility that they could be at war with their own borrower in the future.

Only three central banks were selling gold last quarter—and their reasons are easy to understand.

Russia was one—not because they love the dollar. But because they need to fund a war. Frozen out of the global financial system, gold has become almost a medium of exchange for the Russian government.

Singapore was another. Most central banks only buy strategically; they don’t try to turn a profit. Not Singapore. Their financial institutions are filled with sharp traders who would sell high into record trading volume, with the intent to buy gold back at a lower price.

In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Singaporean government picked up more gold during the recent price dip earlier this month.

The third was Uzbekistan, whose central bank already holds about 80% of its total reserves in gold. With gold prices up, the value of their holdings ballooned—so selling some is simply a way to re-balance.

The problem for most countries is that they have too many dollars and not enough gold. Uzbekistan is the lone example of a country with too much gold and not enough dollars. So their gold sales, while unusual, make sense.

We keep talking about this because it truly is one of the most important trends of our time.

The US government's fiscal condition is atrocious. Almost no one in Washington is willing to take it seriously. But foreign governments and central banks are—and that's exactly why they’re buying gold.

That trend won’t reverse unless, miraculously, everyone in Washington starts treating the national debt like the emergency it actually is.

I’m not holding my breath.

That’s why we believe $5,000 to $10,000 gold is a completely valid future scenario—and why mining companies, precious metals producers, and real asset businesses are so well positioned.

We discuss several of these miners in today’s podcast, including Barrick, Newmont, and Franco-Nevada.

And we also highlight some of the overlooked smaller gold companies that, right now, are just absurd bargains.

You can listen to the full podcast here.

For the audio-only version, check out our online post here.

Finally, you can find the podcast transcript for your convenience, here.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

 PS – We write about this because we’re extremely proud of what we do.

We provide extremely high-quality research, and the results speak for themselves. Four of our precious metals companies are up 3-4x, even after recent pullbacks. Another seven are up 35–150%.

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/these-three-central-banks-are-selling-gold-153876/?inf_contact_key=c89bf4b25fb260fc19f66f76be78e8dc3f5d4753c412dd34813a23b06ce38f2e

The Debt Has Increased By HALF A TRILLION Since The Shutdown Began

The Debt Has Increased By HALF A TRILLION Since The Shutdown Began

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)   November 10, 2025

By the autumn of 1648, England had been embroiled in a chaotic and bloody civil war for more than six years.   Extreme ideological tensions in England had been building for decades over freedom of religion, plus the balance of power within government.

 King Charles was wildly unpopular. And a majority of politicians in parliament saw it as their sole mission to resist him. Many believed adamantly that parliament should rule over the king and ultimately dictate all laws in England.

 On the other side, a number of traditionalists thought parliament to be a corrupt body of liars and thieves, and they wanted to preserve the power of both church and king.

 Tensions erupted into war in 1642, eventually resulting in Charles’ capture and imprisonment.

 At that point the majority of parliament didn’t have any desire to extend the crisis any further. They felt like they had won sufficient concessions. Enough was enough. So they negotiated a peace treaty to end the civil war, much to the relief of people across England.

Unfortunately there were a number of radicals who pledged to continue the fight no matter the cost. They viewed any compromise as failure.

One of those was a little known Member of Parliament named Oliver Cromwell, who, on December 6, 1648, sent more than a thousand troops to surround the palace of Westminster and block the entrance of Parliament.

 Only the most radical members were allowed entry; the rest were either blocked or arrested.

 Cromwell’s aim was to prevent the peace treaty from being ratified; he felt that it was too soft with too many compromises. And as a result, the English Civil War continued, followed by Cromwell’s personal dictatorship, for more than a decade.

 I hope I’m wrong but I think the US is in store for a similar head fake. After more than a month of the shutdown, there were signs over the weekend that a compromise had been reached in the United States Senate.

 But the theater began almost immediately after, with the radical Left vomiting all over the deal and insisting that they would “continue to fight.”

 My sense is that while a lot of people may believe that the government shutdown is nearly over, this may in fact just be another miss, just like England’s ‘almost’ peace treaty in 1648. There’s a good chance this compromise will be blocked by aggressive radicals in Congress.

 To say this is a national embarrassment is a massive understatement. And at this point it’s nearly all branches of government and institutions chipping away at the remaining dignity of America.

 One of the things that I find most bizarre is how many prominent radicals seem to think their shutdown is “winning the hearts and minds of the American people.”

 They believe this because of last week’s gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia in which the candidates from their party won.

 Now, the combined margin of victory of both candidates was about one million people. There are roughly 350 million people in the United States.

Yet, in the mind of a Leftist radical, one million voters in two states speak for 350 million Americans in 50 states, and therefore they have a moral mandate to keep “fighting” while the government remains closed.

 This raises a key question: fighting for what?

 Well, they claim to be fighting for healthcare affordability. Coincidentally this is the same party that passed Obamacare more than a decade ago— during which time the cost of health insurance in the US has soared above and beyond the already uncomfortably high rate of inflation.

 Strange, considering that the actual name of the legislation was the Affordable Care Act. Yet it seems to have only made healthcare less affordable.

TO READ MORE:  https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/the-debt-has-increased-by-half-a-trillion-since-the-shutdown-began-153861/?inf_contact_key=a269846343d34dc10babca0018176e2b861a5a2ad116154286d146aa06e73020

Stagflation Is Back—And the Fed Is Asleep at the Wheel

Stagflation Is Back—And the Fed Is Asleep at the Wheel

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)    October 29, 2025

Protestant firebrand and political activist Hugh Latimer must have known he was risking his life when he stepped into the pulpit at St. Paul’s Cross on January 12, 1549.  His sermon that Sunday morning was hardly religious in nature. Rather, Latimer publicly expressed the view-- the deep, deep frustration-- that nearly all Englishmen were feeling at the time, but everyone was too afraid to say out loud.

Inflation was killing them. And it was the government’s fault.

It started about seven years before, in 1542. England went to war against both Scotland and France-- AT THE SAME TIME. War is always expensive, and it’s especially debilitating when you’re fighting simultaneous conflicts to your north and south.

 War costs quickly mounted, and the English government began paying for it by debasing the currency. Two years into the wars, by 1544, silver content in their coins had plummeted by about a third. Two years later by another 50%.

 At peak, when Latimer gave his famous sermon, silver content had fallen 90% in just seven years. And as a result, prices across England were skyrocketing.

 Latimer was witty and eloquent in the finest English tradition; he quipped at one point that “the King’s coin is become like the King’s faith-- clipped and counterfeit.” And later on, “the debasing of the coin is the debasing of the realm…”

 Latimer believed the debasement of the currency to be a moral issue-- even a sinful act-- because it was essentially theft of commoner’s purchasing power.

 He spoke to thousands of people that cold day in January. But his words went far beyond the congregation; his sermon was published and widely circulated, prompting angry Englishmen across the country to form rebel groups and demand change.

Latimer was arrested and charged for “stirring the people”, imprisoned in the Tower of London and ultimately put to death. His final words were “we shall this day light such a candle, by God’s grace, in England, as I trust shall never be put out.”

Writing in his own journal in 1551, King Edward VI himself admitted that his government was wrong.

 “The debasement of the coin was the cause of the dearth,” wrote the King-- with dearth in that context referring to soaring food prices. He knew his government caused inflation, and inflation caused the social unrest. Latimer was an innocent man who had the courage to say what everyone else was feeling.

Both of these are sadly common trends in history; governments often persecute those whose only crime is telling the truth. And second, governments will invariably screw up, create inflation, and cause severe devastation in people’s lives.

 I’ll focus on the second topic today given that the most recent inflation numbers in the US were announced a few days ago.

 And, no surprise, inflation is ticking up and moving in the wrong direction. Based on the September month-over-month numbers, inflation is an annualized 3.6%.

 Bizarrely, the Fed has already begun lowering interest rates and is widely expected to cut further in the coming months… which will most likely make inflation worse.

 Far more important is that Fed officials are signaling that they’re about to end their quantitative tightening earlier than originally planned.

This is crucial. During the pandemic, the Fed created $5+ trillion in new money. Poof. It’s the equivalent of England debasing its currency in the 1540s… and all that new money triggered all the inflation we’ve experienced.

Quantitative tightening is the reverse of that process; in addition to raising rates (starting in 2022), the Fed also began reducing the money supply and draining some of that money out of the financial system.

 At this point they’ve removed about $2 trillion out of the $5 trillion that they printed. And the original plan was to keep going and reduce their balance sheet.

 But that seems to be no longer happening. So stopping the quantitative tightening, combined with interest rate cuts, will really invite a LOT more inflation.

And all of this is happening just as the labor market is beginning to falter. White collar jobs in particular are being slashed at an astonishing pace.

There’s a term for this-- one that economists don’t like to use very much. But it’s called stagflation-- a shrinking economy combined with higher inflation.

America has been here before-- most recently in the 1970s.

The US economy was in a tailspin; unemployment and inflation BOTH surged, resulting in an almost entire decade of economic misery. But there were safe havens.

 Gold was an obvious safe haven. As the US economy stagnated and retail prices rose, gold prices exploded, rising more than 20x over the next ten years. The dollar, meanwhile, lost roughly 75% of its purchasing power.

We’re seeing similar conditions today, from the inflation data to the gargantuan US national debt. And if history is any guide, this isn’t a trend that reverses easily. The underlying driver—loss of confidence in US fiscal policy and the long-term value of the dollar—shows no sign of abating.

This is why we’ve written so much about gold over the past few years. And, despite its recent pullback, gold remains an incredibly sensible long-term investment.

 But there are other real assets to consider as well.

Real assets in general tend to hold their value during inflationary periods—because they’re not just paper promises. They’re tangible. They’re productive. They’re the raw inputs the economy is actually built on.

 One of the most obvious opportunities right now—possibly the most mispriced sector in the entire market—is energy.

 The world does not exist without energy. Full stop. People have been fed a ridiculous lie that oil is going to disappear and we’re all going to drive solar-powered EVs and Exxon is going to go out of business.

What total BS. But because of this myth, many oil companies are absurdly cheap. Meanwhile oilfield services businesses have been practically left for dead.

Then there’s natural gas-- which (especially in the US) remains THE cheapest form of energy on the planet—cheaper than coal, oil, and in some real-world scenarios, even cheaper than nuclear. And it’s even pretty clean.

 But natural gas producers too have traded at fire-sale valuations.

 We’ve been clear that the gold story is not over by a long shot.

But in our investment research, we are starting to turn to other sectors that are still at the bottom of their cycles— but won’t stay that way for long the way inflation is heating up again.

 The story of inflation is as old as the story of civilization itself. It’s inevitable.

And we’re seeing some pretty obvious warning signs on the horizon.

 But there are some compelling safe havens out there which have almost NEVER been cheaper. They’re worth considering.

 We’d also encourage you to consider joining our premium investment research service, which features these deeply undervalued, highly profitable, well-managed real asset businesses-- we’re offering a limited time promotional discount and an iron-clad money back guarantee.

 To your freedom,   James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

 https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/stagflation-is-back-and-the-fed-is-asleep-at-the-wheel-153793/?inf_contact_key=8eb7d180aa57d962e4b7f3058da80208cb2dfb2519c88201cb0488cbdb276db5

Podcast: Is it War? On Rumors That China Just Took Out Two US Military Aircraft

Podcast: Is it War? On Rumors That China Just Took Out Two US Military Aircraft

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  October 28, 2025

There was a popular legend from medieval Venice about an impoverished orphan from the island of Torcello.   The boy came to Venice at a young age, found a job, and worked tirelessly and energetically-- enough to impress some of the city’s wealthy patricians. 

 Eventually the boy-- now a young man-- had built up enough credibility that some local noblemen entered into a commenda contract with him, i.e. a sort of proto-limited partnership. The idea was that the investors would finance a trade voyage (and stay comfortably at home in Venice), while the young man would risk life and limb on the high seas. 

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 The investors would take 100% of the financial risk in exchange for 75% of the profit, while the orphaned entrepreneur would earn a 25% cut in exchange for risking his life.

 The young man went off to sail the known world and came back with 10x his investors’ money. Ecstatic at the tremendous return on capital, the investors backed several other voyages… until eventually the young orphan boy with no prospects became one of the richest men in Venice.

No one knows if this particular story is true. But it’s emblematic of the incredible rise and peak of the Republic of Venice. 1,000+ years ago, it was truly the America of its day. 

 While the rest of Europe was toiling away in poverty due to the constraints of the ridiculous feudal system, Venice was like a rocket ship far ahead of its time. 

 Its entire society was built on economic freedom. ANYONE, from anywhere in Europe, could come to Venice, work hard, take risks, and make a fortune. It was the American dream seven centuries before there was an America.

Venice also prided itself on a strong rule of law, not to mention unparalleled political and financial stability. It became the richest place on the continent, by far, and its ducato (ducat) gold coin eventually displaced the Byzantine gold solidus as Europe’s major reserve currency.

But eventually, like most great civilizations, it peaked. Venice’s swashbuckling, risk-taking, hard-working entrepreneurial culture became complacent. 

 Rather than finance new trade routes and keep innovating, the great moneyed families of Venice were happy to sit at home and spend their fortunes on art and architecture. The government became clogged up with an entrenched political class that remained in elected office year after year. They became lazy, then incompetent, and then ultimately ran the place into the ground.

 Meanwhile, other rising powers emerged on the geopolitical horizon-- among them, the Ottoman Empire.

 In the 1300s, the Ottoman Empire came out of nowhere as a ferocious competitor, ruthlessly conquering everyone who stood in their way.  They were also shrewd at trade and commerce, and they posed a direct threat to Venice.

It was a classic historical case of a rising power against a declining power. And it seemed like war was inevitable.

 And to be fair, the two countries did cross swords a number of times; history records these as the “Ottoman-Venetian Wars [note the plural]”, though realistically they were extremely limited conflicts, i.e. not full-blown total war in which both sides tried to obliterate one another.

 The reason for the limited nature of the conflicts is simple: trade. Both Venice and the Ottoman Empire did a LOT of business with one another, and they both knew that destroying their adversary would be self-destructive.

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 So instead, they fought small, limited conflicts while continuing to engage in trade and commerce. 

 This is very similar to the US-China conflict that has already been going on for a number of years. We can’t even count the number of cyberattacks that China has waged on the US and US infrastructure. There will be more.

China has been buying up land across the United States left and right to stage military assets for further conflict. They’ve engaged in election interference. Stolen intellectual property. Flooded the US with Fentanyl. Brazen espionage, complete with honeypot sex scandals of high-ranking bureaucrats, business leaders, and politicians. And let’s not forget about the balloons flying over US military bases. 

 Over the weekend the US Navy announced that two military aircraft-- a MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter  and F/A-18F Super Hornet jet-- both crashed in the South China Sea while conducting “routine operations”.

 Fortunately no one was killed, and all crew members were safely recovered. But aside from that, the Navy provided no further details. 

Realistically there are two possibilities.

 Either, one, it’s amateur night at the Navy again, where poor training, bad leadership, or DEI quotas resulted in yet another preventable accident. And if that’s the case, it’s even more embarrassing given that it took place in China’s backyard. 

The more sinister possibility is that the Chinese navy disabled the aircraft. 

China regularly deploys its extensive (and highly advanced) nuclear-powered submarine fleet throughout the South China Sea to deliberately frustrate global shipping and control the region. 

 They engage in electronic warfare, including signal jamming that takes out radar, navigation, and communication systems for commercial shipping vessels… which encourages them to avoid the South China Sea entirely.

The US military, on the other hand, routinely conducts counter-jamming operations, along with submarine tracking, in an effort to keep the South China Sea open.

The two militaries are essentially engaged with one another every single day… but without firing a single shot. It’s a very limited conflict.

 This weekend it might have crossed a line. And it’s possible that China’s jamming operations might have taken out certain flight and navigation controls of the US military aircraft, causing them to crash.

That would be a blatant escalation, especially as President Trump and Xi are set to meet. 

 Having said that, I still think full-scale war is a remote possibility. Just like Venice and the Ottoman Empire, China and the US still need each other. China actually needs the US far more than the US needs China at this point, and in truth the Trump administration has worked hard to make sure that’s the case.

 Frankly, war with China doesn’t even crack what I would consider the top five concerns facing the US right now—maybe not even the top ten.

 We break this all down in today’s podcast—why these latest incidents matter, but also why the odds of all-out war are extremely low.

And I also weigh in on what I actually think is a much bigger concern for the US.

You can listen to the podcast here.  For the audio-only version, check out our online post here.

Finally, you can find the podcast transcript for your convenience, here.

To your freedom,   James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/podcast/153786-153786/?inf_contact_key=2bbed37f6fec9bcfa6b157425c399a7be93b047ffb33442338e72142014ea6fa

Let’s Take a Quick Pause and Look Back at History

Let’s Take a Quick Pause and Look Back at History

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  October 23, 2025

In light of this week’s roller-coaster gold ride, I thought it would be useful to turn once again back to the lessons of history and revisit what we discussed recently about the 1970s.

Foreign governments and central banks around the world had been becoming increasingly concerned about the US government’s outrageous fiscal deficits as early as the mid-1960s.

PIC

French President Charles de Gaulle sounded the alarm about America’s costly war in Vietnam, combined with historic welfare spending, and he began demanding that the Treasury Department redeem a portion of France’s US dollar holdings for gold.

Decades ago, that was his right because under the post–World War II Bretton Woods system, the US dollar was convertible into gold at a rate of $35 per ounce.

By 1971, foreigners’ demands to exchange their dollars for gold had become so great that Richard Nixon formally ended the convertibility once and for all.

Nixon downplayed any impact, telling Americans on August 15, 1971, “your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today.”

The reality is the dollar went on to lose 75% of its value throughout the course of the decade. And if anything, Nixon’s move only encouraged foreigners to dump their dollars at an even more rapid pace.

As a result, the price of gold skyrocketed fivefold as governments and central banks around the world diversified out of the dollar and into gold.

We’ve been seeing this same move over the past couple of years—insatiable foreign and central bank appetite has driven gold prices from $1,800 a couple of years ago to over $4,000 today.

Obviously, over the past few months, there has been a lot of individual investor capital flowing into ETFs, hedge fund speculation, and similar vehicles. But in the long run, gold’s rise has been—and will continue to be—driven by foreign government and central bank diversification out of the dollar.

In 1975, gold hit a temporary peak at around $185 per ounce. After a period of consolidation, in which there was a significant price correction, gold then resumed its ascent, rising all the way to $850.

The point is that regardless of any short-term price correction, the fundamental driver—foreign governments and central banks diversifying out of the US dollar—hadn’t changed.

It took the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 to finally restore credibility in the US government’s finances. Reagan, of course, campaigned on cutting the deficit, sparking a long-term trend which culminated in multiple budget surpluses in the late 1990s.

This renewed confidence in US government finances is what ultimately reversed the trend on gold prices, causing the price to collapse below $300 by the end of the 90s.

I believe we’re in a similar situation today as in 1975.

Gold had a significant correction earlier this week, but the price remained above $4,000.

Perhaps this is the start of a lull period, or even a correction phase as in 1975, but it doesn’t fundamentally change the story right now: foreign governments and central banks are aggressively trying to diversify their US dollar strategic reserves, and gold is one of the only assets that makes sense.

I’m not here to say “buy gold” at $4,000. But based on the trajectory of the US government’s finances, the price of gold should go much higher over the next few years.

I don’t say this because I’m a “gold bug.” I don’t have any irrational fascination with a piece of metal. Rather, my outlook is based on a clear understanding of global central banking and strategic reserve assets, coupled with the obvious deterioration in the US government’s fiscal condition.

But I also understand that after an almost uninterrupted and astonishing rise to nearly $4,400, gold may be due for a correction—similar to what happened in 1975.

The reality is, no one knows for sure. Gold could just as easily rise to $5,000 as drop to $3,500.

I’d point out, however, that there are still a number of high-quality gold, platinum, and silver businesses that are wildly undervalued and extremely profitable—and they will continue to be extremely profitable even if there is a steep decline in gold prices.

For example, one of the companies we featured in our premium investment research service is producing gold at a price of just $1,000 per ounce. This means the price of gold could fall below $3,000, and this company would still be making money hand over fist—and trading at just 5x earnings based on today’s stock price.

Did I mention they pay a handsome dividend?

To me, the long-term case for gold is crystal clear—foreign governments and central banks will continue to by gold unless there is a fundamental change in Congress’s attitude toward the US budget deficit. And I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

The short-term case for gold over the next couple of months is anyone’s guess. It could go higher, it could go lower. And that’s why I think some of these ultra-cheap, highly profitable, well-managed, largely debt-free gold companies are really worth considering.

When the long-term case for gold is so obvious, it’s a sensible strategy to own a business that has so much gold exposure, pays a dividend, and can continue to be extremely profitable—even if there’s a short-term gold correction. 

To your freedom, James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/lets-take-a-quick-pause-and-look-back-at-history-153763/?inf_contact_key=706a9940a551999316ba9db994fda20397b2b8bcba9ab28a88f19442e6c88399

What If Gold Crashes To $3,000 Per Ounce?

What If Gold Crashes To $3,000 Per Ounce?

Notes From the Field by James Hickman (Simon Black)  October 16, 2025

A little over a month ago, in early September, after careful analysis and detailed study, my team and I reached an important conclusion. And we started telling our audience almost immediately.

Gold had just crossed $3,500 per ounce, silver had just crossed $40, and many gold and silver mining companies had experienced astonishing gains.

 Of course none of this came as a surprise to our readers. We’ve been saying for the past few years that gold in particular was going to go much higher, specifically because foreign governments and central banks were buying up gold by the metric ton as a way to diversify their strategic reserves away from the US dollar.

 That extra demand from central banks totaling a few hundred billion dollars sent gold prices rocketing higher. And we also said this trend would continue.

 Similarly over the past couple of years, as we were predicting higher gold and silver prices, we also predicted that mining companies would benefit, and generate record revenues and record profits as a result.

At the time those mining companies had been left for dead in financial markets, with share prices so cheap they were practically being given away.

We told our audience over and over again in print and in our podcasts that this wouldn’t last, and that mining companies would surge in value.

And that’s exactly what happened. In fact, many of the companies we featured in our premium investment research are up 3x, 4x, 5x, even 6x this year alone.

 But early last month we realized there was another near term catalyst that would likely send these companies’ share prices even higher. These businesses are all publicly traded, and so they have to report their earnings, usually every quarter.

 Q1 earnings were great. Q2 earnings were fantastic. But we realized that gold and silver had been rising so quickly, that Q3 earnings—which would be reported sometime in October—would just be out of this world.

We did the math and crunched the numbers ourselves, and based on our analysis, even companies that had risen 4 or 5x were still undervalued based on projected Q3 earnings.

And we anticipated that for many of these companies, their share prices would jump after their Q3 earnings were announced.

 The first of those companies reported its earnings earlier this week, and we were absolutely right. Its record profit dazzled investors, and its share price jumped nearly 20% in a day.

It’s also up almost 52% since we made this prediction a month ago.

 We’ve also done the math to see what would happen to these businesses if there were a sudden drop in precious metals prices.

 Well, to give you an example one of the companies we featured in our investment research, which is up more than 5x, would still be incredibly undervalued.

Based on our analysis, even if gold were to drop below $3,000—roughly 30% from here—that company would still be making money hand over fist, and based on its current share price, still trading at around 5.5x earnings.

Oh, and did I mention they pay a substantial dividend?

It’s not that every mining company is in the same boat. There are thousands of companies out there, and many are just terrible businesses with pitiful management and terrible balance sheets.

 But if you’re willing to do the hard work and find the highest quality management, and the most pristine balance sheets, there are still undervalued gems out there.

 This is what we focus on in our premium investment research.

 And we believe that many of them could see similar upside over the next few weeks as they report bonanza Q3 earnings.

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/what-if-gold-crashes-to-3000-per-ounce-153717/?inf_contact_key=e73c6360b05b8aa64ae174142d3d925745f52772a67910d275469a1ff0808c0a

There Was Once A Time When Congress Cared About Literally Every Penny—

There Was Once A Time When Congress Cared About Literally Every Penny—

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  October 13, 2025

As the clock struck midnight on July 1, 1848, Ohio Congressman Samuel Vinton probably started having a minor panic attack.   Viton was Chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, the Congressional body that, at least at the time, was responsible for all taxation and spending appropriations. Anything that got spent-- or didn’t get spent-- was Vinton’s domain.

The United States was just coming out of a war in the year 1848-- the Mexican War, in which the US invaded Mexico and wound up with 525,000 square miles of new territory as a result.

 Several members of Congress thought the war unjust and unconstitutional. One critic, in fact, was a little-known politician from the state of Illinois named Abraham Lincoln, who often spoke passionately on the House floor against what he viewed as clear aggression.

 Others in Lincoln’s party-- the Whigs, who were essentially proto-Republicans-- winced at the immense cost of the war.

 By 1848 the costs of the Mexican War were at least four times what the Democrat-controlled War Department had originally promised. And the Whigs were tired of it.

In one heated exchange that took place on March 20, 1848, after a senior Treasury official had meekly described the enormous war costs as “mistakes” and “miscalculations”, one conservative senator blasted his colleagues saying,

  “Our [federal government] expenditures have become so enormous that a few ‘mistakes’ in the calculations of the Treasury Department-- a few mere slips of the pen-- involve a larger amount than the whole annual expenditure during the administration of [President Andrew] Jackson [in 1836].”

In other words, simply the cost overruns for the year 1848 were MORE than the entire federal budget just twelve years earlier.

 The Whigs put their foot down and refused to vote on any further appropriations until there was a full audit of the war costs.

 At the time, the federal government’s fiscal year ran from July 1 through June 30 (as opposed to now, the fiscal year runs from October 1 through September 30).

 So as the June 30 deadline became closer, House Ways and Means Chairman Samuel Vinton became increasingly anxious.

 Back then the federal government was much smaller, so there weren’t anywhere near as many programs that required Congressional funding as exist today. But there were still important government functions that needed money-- including the Army.

Vinton knew that he was responsible for passing the Army’s funding bill. So in session after session, he practically begged his colleagues to PLEASE vote on it.

 Yet his cries fell on deaf ears. And at 12:01 am on July 1, 1848, the Army was ‘defunded’ by the 30th United States Congress for the first time.

Ultimately the Whigs wanted greater financial accountability of war costs, plus a drastic downsizing of the Army back to peacetime levels-- two perfectly reasonable asks. The Democrats finally caved several weeks later, and the stalemate ended on August 7, 1848, when Congress passed HR 618-- “an act making appropriations for the support of the Army [for Fiscal Year 1849].”

 It’s notable that the Army’s entire budget from that appropriations bill was less than $8 million, with some ridiculously specific line items-- like $1,127,428.56 for food, subsistence, and provisions. They seriously added the fifty-six cents! It’s amazing that Congress actually cared about literally every penny back then.

 Unfortunately, 1848 wasn’t the last time that Congress had a budget stalemate; in fact, it became typical for Congress to NOT pass appropriations bills before the Fiscal Year-end.

 But whenever this happened, most federal agencies (including the military) had leftover money from the previous year to keep themselves funded for an extra month or so. Worst case the Treasury would advance them funds.

The bottom line is that no one ever had to ‘shut down’.

This changed in 1980. For most of his Presidential administration, Jimmy Carter had been at odds with Congress. And on April 25th that year, he asked his Attorney General, Benjamin Civiletti, to issue formal guidance about the possibility of a government shut down.

 Civiletti complied and reinterpreted some obscure legislation from 1884 to conclude that no government agency would be allowed to operate unless it received formal appropriations from Congress.

 Carter intended to use this legal interpretation as leverage to pressure Congress about proposed FTC legislation. Instead it backfired, and the first-ever government shutdown took place on May 1, 1980.

 And ever since, thanks to Carter and his Attorney General, the US government is now under the threat of shutdown every single year.

 In the past, most shutdowns (or at least funding gaps) have been because of specific disputes; in 1980 it was about the authority of the FTC. In 1848 it was over excess war spending.

But today’s shutdown is different. First-- it was totally preventable. And second, it’s not about a single issue (including the supposed Obamacare tax credit, which will almost certainly be extended).

Today’s shutdown is because two sides absolutely hate each other and refuse to work together.

 Personally, I’m not losing any sleep over the Department of Commerce having to furlough employees. And frankly I don’t believe that any “non-essential” government job should even exist.

But the whole thing is a gigantic stain on the credibility of the US government.

 This matters. Foreigners own $10+ trillion worth of US government bonds. It’s the very basis of America’s economic power abroad, and why the US dollar is the global reserve currency. Confidence in the US government is paramount in maintaining this system.

Foreign creditors tend to notice things like a full-blown government shutdown. And the fact that Congress is willing to burn everything down just to spite the other side.

 Who would possibly want to continue buying US Treasury bonds when the federal government isn’t even willing to keep itself open for business?

 Confidence is waning rapidly. And frankly we can see this in the price of gold, which just surpassed $4,100 as I write this. It’s not a speculative bubble; rather it’s a sad reflection of Congress’s collapsing credibility. And that credibility probably isn’t improving anytime soon.

 To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/there-was-once-a-time-when-congress-cared-about-literally-every-penny-153699/?inf_contact_key=7451a34b16cf52799c7ada9d89ec90cd4c89db51b04f05ba577c35d9bf429d28

Podcast: Even at $4,000 Gold the Miners Are Ridiculously Cheap

Podcast: Even at $4,000 Gold the Miners Are Ridiculously Cheap

Notes From ther Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  October 8, 2025

Yesterday we wrote that with gold topping $4,000, it’s time to step back and look at the big picture—and the fundamentals haven’t changed.

Foreign governments and central banks hold about $10 trillion in US denominated reserves. But for years they’ve been trading this paper for gold— because it is their only realistic alternative.

Why are they searching for an alternative? Because they are losing confidence in the US government.

The debt, the political dysfunction, the weaponization of the dollar— these all make them less excited about loaning money to the US government.

And their steady buying of gold is what pushed it to these levels.

Those catalysts have not gone away, and if anything, are stronger than ever.

When a few hundred billion in demand can double the price of gold, imagine what happens if even a small portion of the remaining trillions rotate into gold.

Does 5% of dollar reserves shifting into gold translate to $10,000 gold? 20% re-allocation to $20,000 per ounce?

We don’t know exactly, but these numbers are not fantastical. There’s still enormous room for upside.

In the short term, of course, we can see plenty of noise.

Markets respond to headlines—like the new prime minister of Japan openly calling for more money-printing. Any environment like that naturally drives gold higher.

But at the same time, we’re seeing signals that a correction could be near—a stampede of new individual investors, record inflows into large gold ETFs, and a drop off in jewelry sales.

There are some classic signs of a short-term top.

But we don’t focus on short term trading. We always look at the long term big picture. And the long-term trend remains solidly intact.

So does the most important story of all right now: the much ignored mining sector.

Even after a massive run, many gold miners are still deeply undervalued relative to the long-term intrinsic value of their businesses.

One company featured in our premium investment research is up 5x in the past year. Yet even if gold fell back to $3,000, it would still be turning enough profit to trade at just four times earnings.

It’s debt-free. It pays a dividend. And it offers massive downside protection.

So while no one has a crystal ball—and we can’t tell you what happens tomorrow—the reality is that the mining, drilling, and service companies behind this bull market remain absurdly cheap.

That’s an opportunity to take seriously.

We dug into all of this in our latest podcast which you can listen to here.

For the audio-only version, check out our online post here.

Finally, you can find the podcast transcript for your convenience, here.

To your freedom,   James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/podcast/podcast-even-at-4000-gold-the-miners-are-ridiculously-cheap-153684/?inf_contact_key=1f919ccb60db55e5bf8b1f2fa4927e1ab51161ba063939a3213f94f46454e7e9

$4,000 Gold: Is It Time To Sell?

$4,000 Gold: Is It Time To Sell?

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  October 7, 2025

You’d think Charles de Gaulle would have been a little bit more grateful to America.

 As head of the Free French Forces during World War II, de Gaulle was essentially a leader in exile, and he had to base himself in England for the majority of the war after the Nazis took Paris.

 It was only because of the sacrifices made by American troops-- and exceptional generosity from US general Dwight Eisenhower-- that de Gaulle was allowed to enter Paris on August 25, 1944.

America had already done all the fighting. But de Gaulle marched through the streets in triumph as if he had personally won the war.

 The US government then went on to cement his power, so de Gaulle became head of France’s post-war provisional government, then later French president. France also received billions in aid from the Marshall Plan, courtesy of US taxpayers.

 The guy pretty much owed his entire political career, not to mention the liberation and economic solvency of his country, to the United States.

But de Gaulle’s ego was far greater than his sense of gratitude; in fact in his own memoirs he compared himself to Joanne of Arc. He even whined that he didn’t receive enough US support.

 The ultimate disrespect came on February 4, 1965. De Gaulle called a press conference to criticize America’s “exorbitant privilege” in global finance, concluding that the world needed to return to a classical gold standard.

 Ever since July of 1944, the world had been on the “Bretton Woods” system. Every currency was pegged to the US dollar, and the US dollar was pegged to gold at a price of $35 per ounce.

Having the global reserve currency meant that America could finance its government deficits by simply printing more money. This is still the case today. De Gaulle was jealous of this benefit, so he tried wrecking the financial system.

In addition to demanding a return to the classical gold standard, de Gaulle also insisted that the US government redeem France’s dollar reserves for gold.

 The idea caught on. Governments around the world, along with financial speculators and investors, started paying attention… and many began trading their dollars for gold as well.

 This trend picked up steam over the next several years until, finally, in 1971, Richard Nixon shut it down… announcing that the United States would no longer redeem US dollars for gold.

 The gold price naturally started to rise. Within a few months, gold was already above $40, up 13.5%. It reached $60 in 1972 (up 42%), nearly $100 in 1973 (up 66%), and $180 in 1974 (up 80%).

 It’s not hard to understand why. Inflation was soaring. The world was a geopolitical hot mess. Then there was the Nixon political scandal at home. Uncertainty abounded, and gold was the remedy.

 But then something interesting happened: Congress passed a law finally allowing private ownership of gold.

It seems crazy today, but ever since 1933, it had actually been illegal for Americans to own gold. Congress reversed this in 1974.

 So just imagine you’re an average American in the 1970s watching gold rise more than 5x, from $35 to $180… but you can’t do anything about it because it’s illegal to buy. Then suddenly the law changes. Almost overnight, US investors started aggressively investing in gold.

Back then, of course, people didn’t have brokerage accounts, let alone access to futures exchanges. And there were no ETFs.

 So instead people bought physical gold coins-- Krugerrands, Eagles, etc. And there was booming demand for a while.

 But right around this time, large investors, hedge funds, etc. started feeling like gold was overbought… and that the price had risen too far, too fast. So they started selling. In fact many funds were selling as small retail investors were buying.

 And as you can imagine, the gold price soon started to fall; in fact the correction lasted roughly 18 months. Gold eventually hit a low of ~$100 in August 1976-- a drop of more than 40% from its record high in 1975.

 Yet even though speculators were selling, the fundamentals of gold had not changed.

 Specifically, foreign governments and central banks were still seeking to diversify from their US dollar holdings. And more importantly, the US government financial condition was still atrocious.

 So after an 18-month hiatus, the gold price started rising again in August 1976… from ~$100 to $800+ in December 1979.

So even though gold had reached a record high in 1974, people who understood the long-term fundamentals, i.e. why the gold price was going higher, saw an additional 4x return. People that were smart enough to buy more when the price fell did even better-- 8x in less than four years.

 And people who sold their gold in 1975 missed the rise from $185 to $850.

 Gold just hit $4,000 today. It’s up more than 50% in a year, and up 100% in two years. So is it time to sell?

In our view, this is like 1975 again. Gold may be overbought now; after all, nothing is supposed to go up (or down) in a straight line.

We’re also seeing interesting data from ETFs. The “GLD”, for example, the world’s largest gold ETF, is seeing record inflows, including more than $2 billion in a single day last month.

 This is a sign that, just like 1975, individual investors are piling in to gold after sitting on the sidelines for the past few years.

 Strong, sudden retail demand is often a top signal, at least temporarily. And it’s possible that there could be a short-term correction.

But even if that happens, it doesn’t change the fundamental story of gold. Just like the 1970s, foreign governments and central banks today are aggressively diversifying their US dollar holdings, and gold is the most convenient asset for them to buy.

We don’t believe this has changed at all. Foreign governments and central banks might pull back on their purchases temporarily to see what happens in the market. But long-term they are still strong buyers of gold thanks to the US government’s terrible fiscal trajectory.

 And despite any short-term corrections, this is what will ultimately drive gold prices higher over the next several years.

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/4000-gold-is-it-time-to-sell-153676/?inf_contact_key=a0098e0fbdc4e230a5f948ef216876ecb35f7cb4f843dbaf82489fd4b96e6293

Shutdown Or Not, Government Dysfunction = Higher Gold Prices

Shutdown Or Not, Government Dysfunction = Higher Gold Prices

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  September 30, 2025

All eyes are on Washington to see if the government shuts down when the clock strikes midnight tonight.

Funny thing is, most people aren’t really going to care—because all of the “essential” services will keep running. (Which makes you wonder: why do non-essential government services exist on the taxpayer’s dime in the first place?)

But today is also the end of the fiscal year. And based on the data, we can see that the US will end the fiscal year with around $37.5 trillion in debt. That means, for Fiscal Year 2025, the debt will have increased by another $1.8 trillion.

Taken as a whole, this is an obvious testament to why foreign governments and central banks are rapidly losing confidence in the US government.

It doesn’t even matter whether the government shuts down tonight— it is the fact that it always comes so close. That Congress can’t even manage to pass a basic budget.

And the “solution” on the table is just another short-term patch— a continuing resolution that keeps the government funded for less than two months, until November 21st.

America looks like exactly what it is: a dysfunctional government that can’t even pass a budget.

Frankly, it’s embarrassing.

On top of that, you’ve got this $37.5 trillion debt growing by leaps and bounds—faster than the US economy and faster than tax revenue.

At a certain point, these foreign governments and central banks, who collectively own trillions upon trillions of dollars worth of US government bonds, start wondering: why should I continue to own these securities? Why continue to lend money to the US government?

They can’t even pass a routine budget, let alone the kind of budget that would actually reassure foreign governments and central banks—a truly controversial one that makes deep, necessary cuts to runaway spending.

Then there’s another problem—one that isn’t new. It started under the Bush administration, Obama elevated it, and Biden perfected it: the weaponization of the US dollar, the financial system, and US Treasury bonds.

This gives foreign governments and central banks obvious concern: if they do something the US doesn’t like, they’re going to be frozen out of the dollar system—out of their Treasury holdings, and out of dollar-denominated assets altogether.

And these are all reasons why we believe, over the long run, gold will continue to march higher: central banks will continue to buy gold as an alternative to US dollars.

Why gold?

It’s an independent asset. It’s not controlled by any government. No country is worried that America will freeze its gold holdings. Millions of troy ounces of bars and bullion stored around the world can’t be frozen with the click of a button.

Gold is universally accepted by every other country and central bank. There’s a global market for it. And it’s an asset class large enough to absorb billions of dollars— or even tens, or hundreds of billions—over time.

You can’t say that about most other asset classes.

Gold has already had an astonishing run—especially this year. But we think that, over the long run, as more foreign central banks allocate an increasing percentage of their strategic reserves into gold instead of dollars, that excess demand will continue to push the gold price much higher.

Gold is like anything else—subject to the laws of supply and demand. Demand for physical gold by governments and central banks around the world has been very strong.

And based on the data we’re seeing, that continues to be the case.

The Chinese central bank has bought another 21 tons of gold this year, marking ten consecutive months of purchases.

And it’s not just China. It’s all over the world— Poland, Turkey, Czech Republic, Kazakhstan and many other countries are buying literal tons of gold.

In fact, 95% of central bank reserve managers said they expect global official gold holdings to increase over the next 12 months, according to the 2025 World Gold Council Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey.

There are, however, short-term price risks. For example, the gold price is also impacted by demand for jewelry, as well as industrial use.

Given current record-high prices, jewelry demand is much weaker.

And that can have an adverse impact on gold prices.

Another factor to consider is supply. At a certain point, mining companies are going to take advantage of these high prices and ratchet up production, eventually resulting in oversupply in the market. That, too, could weigh on gold prices.

But we think these are shorter-term factors that don’t change anything about the long-term driver of gold prices—and that is central bank demand.

What we are seeing literally today— government shutdowns and $1.8 trillion deficits—just underscores how widespread that central bank demand is—and why it simply isn’t going away.

To your freedom,   James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

 PS: While gold has hit all time highs, the share prices of many top quality gold producers has lagged far behind. That is starting to change, but there is still opportunity before the gap closes.

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/shutdown-or-not-government-dysfunction-higher-gold-prices-153626/?inf_contact_key=5557406d6dc23be4cf3a5dc84a0ee5f534bc1cc172df786974c5dfeac18f0bfe

It’s Like Buying Gold For $1,000 An Ounce

It’s Like Buying Gold For $1,000 An Ounce

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  September 25, 2025

Gold just hit another all-time high this week, briefly touching $3,800 per ounce... which means it has more than doubled in the last two years.

When any asset continues hitting all-time highs, most people who haven’t bought it yet naturally believe that they missed out... or that they should wait for a pullback.

Of course, many people believed that when gold hit $2,400 in spring of 2024... and then $2,800 early this year... and $3,400 in April.

As gold has continued its rise, however, we continued to suggest that this is still early days... and that the gold price could continue to surge much, much higher.

It’s not hard to understand why.

Foreign governments and central banks around the world are rapidly losing confidence in the US government... and by extension, in the US dollar.

The national debt is $37.5 trillion and rising. Deficits total $2 trillion each year, and there seems to be no appetite to cut spending. Worst of all, Congress can’t even manage to pass a budget... risking yet another government shutdown at the end of this month.

If that weren’t bad enough, the US federal government has also gotten in the habit of freezing assets of any foreign country that it doesn’t like.

At the moment, those same foreign governments (and foreign central banks) hold trillions worth of US dollar assets. So naturally any sensible foreign official is thinking about diversifying away from the US, and from the US dollar.

Unfortunately there simply aren’t too many options. No one trusts the Chinese Communist Party, so the yuan is out. Europe is its own economic basket case, so euro-denominated assets and European government bonds are not much better.

Out of the universe of options available, gold is one of the few assets that can solve this problem for foreign governments and central banks.

Gold isn’t controlled by any single government. No one can freeze them out of their gold or confiscate their holdings. Gold will hold its value against inflation. And the gold market is large enough that sovereign nations can purchase hundreds of billions of dollars worth.

This is why gold is at an all-time high: foreign governments and central banks have been buying it by the metric ton. And that extreme gold demand has pushed prices higher and higher.

We have been talking about this for 2+ years, since gold was below $2,000. And throughout gold’s rise, we kept saying that this trend will continue, i.e. foreign governments and central banks will buy more.

We still believe this is true, especially if you have a longer-term view over the next few years.

But we also presented an alternative to gold.

We wrote that the main demand driver for gold was from central banks. But central banks only buy physical gold. They do not buy gold stocks.

And we pointed out that while gold was at all time highs, the share prices of companies producing the gold were ridiculously low.

In January, for example, one gold company we follow was trading at roughly 1x forward earnings.

And we practically screamed from the rooftops that this opportunity would not last— people would realize how undervalued these businesses were, while their revenue was literally denominated in gold at all time high prices.

Well, the gold companies’ earnings reports starting rolling in this year, and the market saw just how much money these companies were making.

Investors finally woke up. And by April, that same gold company had doubled its January share price— but was still only trading at about 2x earnings.

Gold kept ripping higher, and so did this company’s profits— after all, the cost to mine gold didn’t increase, and this company was still pulling it out of the ground for about $1,000 an ounce.

So its profit margin went from $800 per ounce two years ago, to over $2,500 per ounce today.

Production costs have been flat. But their revenue per ounce has soared, up 50% this year alone.

Now, it’s share price has doubled again— 4x higher than in January.

And next month it will release Q3 results, a period it could sell gold as high as $3,700 per ounce. Its profits could be simply ridiculous.

Here’s the crazy part: even though the share price has quadrupled this year, the company is making so much money that it is STILL only trading for 2x earnings.

Which is why we think, despite already multiplying by four this year, the share price is poised for even higher growth once Q3 earnings are released in a few weeks.

In other words, gold companies are STILL cheap compared to gold, and offer leverage beyond physical gold.

If you own shares in a company that can produce gold at $1,000 per ounce, in a way its like buying gold at $1,000 per ounce. And that’s a pretty fantastic deal these days.

Right now it’s still possible to buy into these gold companies at cheap valuations, delivering gains that could far outpace gold.

So we really want to encourage you to check out our premium investment research— it’s called The 4th Pillar, where we feature these undervalued gold companies... along with other real asset businesses ranging from silver to platinum to oil to industrial metals to agriculture.

Many of our picks are up 2-4x just this year alone, and based on our analysis, we think there’s scope for them to go much higher over the next few months based on Q3 earnings (which will be released in a few weeks).

We’re offering a limited time promotional discount to The 4th Pillar, along with our iron-clad money back guarantee. So definitely take a few minutes to learn more about it and consider joining.

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/its-like-buying-gold-for-1000-ounce-153590/?inf_contact_key=6dbf162d9da4287298d09a451003f2402343f9ac500826dd3f0e41b4c68affdd