3 Real Assets Primed For Growth In The Coming Inflation Bonanza

3 Real Assets Primed For Growth In The Coming Inflation Bonanza 

Notes From The Field  By James Hickman/Simon Black 7-11-24

After today’s inflation report showing ‘only’ 3% inflation, the Federal Reserve is all but guaranteed to start slashing interest rates.

The Fed Chairman essentially promised as much to Congress earlier this week, and has warned that if they don’t start cutting interest rates soon, “we could undermine the [economic] recovery.”

These guys still don’t get it. At this point it’s not even about 3% inflation (which is still too high) or 2% inflation. It’s about prices going back down to pre-pandemic levels… or just lower in general.

But that’s just never going to happen. The Fed doesn’t care about price reductions; they’re happy with a slower rate of price increases… which is totally out of touch with what people want and need.

They’ve been itching to cut rates for months… almost desperate. And in large part that’s because they’re terrified about the US government’s insolvency.

The national debt is about to pass $35 trillion. And high interest rates mean that the annual interest bill this year will exceed the US military budget-- more than $800 billion-- for the first time in nearly 250 years of American history.

The Fed knows that they have to slash interest rates as quickly as possible. With ultra-low rates (like 1.5%), the interest bill on a $35 trillion national debt is manageable… as long as the federal government can rein in spending and stop the debt from growing further.

Of course there are two key problems with this thinking:

First, there is zero evidence that the government will rein in spending. If anything, they seem primed to spend even more. I’ve mentioned several times before that even the US government’s own budget forecasts project more than $22 trillion in additional debt over the next decade.

Second, slashing interest rates will most likely result in significant inflation-- just like we saw in 2021-2022.

We’ve written before how real assets are a safe haven from inflation, and I wanted to briefly discuss three real assets that look especially promising.

The first is physical gold and silver, which serve as a store of value-- especially during inflationary times.

Higher inflation will likely trigger a surge in demand, making the price of precious metals not only keep up with inflation, but exceed it.

But there is another reason why gold will do especially well the worse inflation gets.

The worse inflation becomes, and the worse the US national debt becomes, the more likely the US dollar will lose its spot as the dominant reserve currency. And central banks all over the world-- India, Poland, Singapore, etc. have been feverishly buying up physical gold over the past few years, most likely to prepare for that potential change.

So if inflation picks up, it’s a good bet that central banks will keep buying up gold-- and driving prices higher.

Gold mining stocks should also do extremely well in that scenario due to their exposure to gold prices.

What’s interesting right now, though, is that despite gold being near an all-time high, share prices of many gold mining companies are incredibly cheap.

That’s because central banks-- which have driven gold prices to record highs-- only buy physical gold bullion. They do not buy gold stocks.

However, while the price of gold has already increased substantially, the stock prices of many great gold miners has not.

This is because most of the current demand for gold is coming from central banks. And central banks only buy physical gold— not gold mining stocks.

This means that gold stocks are currently a bargain-- with a LOT of upside potential.

Last, US natural gas is another compelling real asset primed for huge growth.

Right now, natural gas prices in the US are dramatically lower than they are in Europe… and it’s easy to understand why: the US has some of the biggest natural gas reserves in the world, while Europe has almost nothing by comparison. (This is why Europe is so reliant on Russian gas).

And since Joe Biden has banned new LNG (liquefied natural gas) export terminals from the US, it’s difficult to move that US natural gas to Europe.

This is why prices in the US are less than $3, versus more than $10 in Europe. If US producers were free to export, prices in the US would rise, prices in Europe would fall, and the global natural gas prices would be more or less the same, similar to oil.

In terms of energy equivalence to oil, $3 per million BTU natural gas is the equivalent of paying around $15 - $20 for a barrel of oil. That’s cheap. And it means US natural gas is the most underpriced conventional energy commodity in the world.

But it probably won’t stay that way for long.

First, large tech companies, which are building massive, energy-hungry AI data centers, are also looking at putting in their own power plants… which will most likely be powered by natural gas.

Second, the new export terminal ban probably won’t last. There are lawsuits, legislation, and an upcoming election, any one of which could restart new LNG exports. When this happens, US natural gas prices could quickly rise.

In either case, natural gas producers stand to benefit substantially from higher prices. And it just so happens that shares of many of the best quality producers right now are laughably cheap, with low multiples relative to earnings, book value, and Free Cash Flow.

Looking at the overall investment landscape now, with many conventional stocks and indexes near all time highs, these three sectors strike me as some of the most promising investments for an inflationary environment.

To your freedom,   James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/investing/3-real-assets-primed-for-growth-in-the-coming-inflation-bonanza-151138/

4 Fraud Schemes You Should Be on the Lookout For

4 Fraud Schemes You Should Be on the Lookout For

Laura Beck   Wed, July 10, 2024  GOBankingRates

There are always unscrupulous individuals who would love to separate you from your hard-earned money. Not only that, they are always developing new ways to do so, as well as new twists on old scams.

You can keep yourself from falling victim to these criminals by educating yourself about these schemes and using a little common sense. Always approach unsolicited phone calls, emails, or texts with skepticism. If something feels off, trust your instincts and take a step back to assess the situation.

Here are four scams to be on the lookout for:

Wealthy people know the best money secrets. Learn how to copy them.

Pig Butchering Scams

A pig butchering scam is an elaborate con in which scammers build up your trust over an extended period, often through social media, dating apps, or text messages, before convincing you to invest in cryptocurrency.

“The ‘pig butchering’ scheme is a complex fraud that borrows elements from other existing scams,” said R. Persichitte, Affiliate Professor at the Metropolitan State University of Denver. “It typically begins with a romantic or a wrong number scheme to initiate contact.

A seemingly attractive individual will establish a casual relationship and then persuade you to make a small deposit into their phony investment, often using a legitimate site like Coinbase. They will then lure you into investing more by presenting fake statements of high returns. However, these returns are fictitious, and your money is lost when you transfer it.

To protect yourself from pig butchering, be skeptical of any unsolicited investment advice, especially from people you’ve only met online, or any texts from a “wrong number.”

Impersonating Your Bank or Another Service

To Read More:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/m-banking-expert-4-fraud-190021118.html

Kevin O'Leary Says You Can Survive On $500,000 And 'Do Nothing Else To Make Money'

Kevin O'Leary Says You Can Survive On $500,000 And 'Do Nothing Else To Make Money'

Margaret Jackson  Updated Wed, Jul 10, 2024,

Americans are all about that $1.5 million nest egg for retirement — living easy with golf trips and fancy cars.

But "Shark Tank" tough guy Kevin O'Leary says to hold on — you can retire with just $500,000 — a big difference from the $5 million he suggested last August.

According to Mr. Wonderful, the key is investing smartly and maybe scaling back your spending after you clock out for good.

"You can live off half a million bucks in the bank and do nothing else to make money," O'Leary said. "Do not invest in your brother's bar. Or a bowling alley, or a bar, or all that other crap, you'll lose your money."

But it depends on the type of lifestyle you want. According to Northwestern Mutual research, most Americans believe they need nearly $1.5 million to retire. That's up 53% since 2020 and 15% from last year.

O'Leary's logic is that you can make about 5% in fixed income with little risk, but if you only have $500,000, that amounts to $25,000 per year. If you are willing to ride the volatility, you can invest in equities, providing up to a 9% return or about $45,000 annually.

If you aim for a secure retirement, the 4% rule is widely used. The rule suggests retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement savings annually for 30 years, adjusting the amount each year to keep up with inflation. Developed by financial adviser Bill Bengen, it's based on historical data analyzing stock and bond returns, aiming to ensure retirees don't run out of money.

Consider real-world spending. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average retiree over 65 spends roughly $52,141 annually. Rounding up for safety, you'd need at least $1.3 million saved to generate $53,000 per year using the 4% rule. That means if you had $500,000 saved, as O'Leary suggested, withdrawing 4% annually for 30 years would only provide a safe spending amount of $20,000 per year.

To Read More:  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kevin-oleary-says-survive-500-140519576.html

7 Reasons You Should Consider a Financial Advisor — Even If You’re Not Wealthy

7 Reasons You Should Consider a Financial Advisor — Even If You’re Not Wealthy

Marina Benitez  June 24, 2024

When you hear the term financial advisor, you might picture someone who only works with the ultra-wealthy, managing millions of dollars in assets. This is a common misconception. In reality, financial advisors work with people of all income levels, helping them navigate the complexities of personal finance and achieve their financial goals.

And according to a survey* by MagnifyMoney, 95% of those polled who have a financial advisor believe it’s worth the money.

Whether you’re planning for retirement, dealing with a significant life event or simply looking to make smarter financial decisions, a financial advisor can offer the expertise and guidance you need. Here are some compelling reasons why you should consider a financial advisor — even if you’re not wealthy.

1. You Get Personalized Financial Guidance

Starting to save early and consistently is crucial for building a strong retirement fund. Expert advisors

Everyone’s financial situation is unique, and a one-size-fits-all approach rarely works when it comes to managing money. This is where personalized financial guidance becomes invaluable. Financial advisors tailor their advice to fit your specific needs, goals and circumstances. Whether you’re looking to create a budget, save for a major purchase or plan for long-term goals like retirement, a financial advisor can help you develop a customized strategy.

Imagine having an expert who understands your financial situation inside and out guiding you through important decisions and helping you avoid costly mistakes. With personalized advice, you can feel confident that your financial plan is designed specifically for you, taking into consideration your income, expenses, risk tolerance and future aspirations.

This level of tailored guidance can make all the difference in achieving financial stability and growth.

2. You Can Get Matched With A Financial Advisor for Free

If you’re not already wealthy, getting a financial advisor probably sounds expensive and out of reach. That’s why we like a company called Unbiased. They’ll match you with a financial advisor in your area — for free.

No two people have the same financial situation, which is why Unbiased matches you with the best financial advisor for your specific situation, so you get an expert in the areas you need.

There’s no obligation to hire them, and Unbiased screens every advisor to make sure you’re only getting matched with the best experts.

Want to get a customized financial plan? Just start here to get matched with a financial advisor for free.

3. They Can Help You Navigate Major Life Transitions

Life is full of significant events that can dramatically impact your financial situation. Whether you’re getting married, having a child, receiving an inheritance, facing job loss or divorce — or any number of major events — these transitions often come with complex financial decisions. A financial advisor can be an invaluable resource during these times, providing the expertise and support needed to make informed choices.

Consider the challenges of planning a wedding, buying a home or preparing for a new addition to your family. Each of these milestones requires careful financial planning to ensure you’re making the best decisions for your future. Financial advisors offer guidance on budgeting, saving and investing to meet your changing needs.

By working with a financial advisor during life’s major events, you can avoid common pitfalls and set yourself up for long-term success. Their expert advice ensures that you’re not only addressing immediate concerns but also planning strategically for the future.

To Read More:  https://www.gobankingrates.com/consider-financial-advisor-not-wealthy-2287035/?utm_term=related_link_2&utm_campaign=1277259&utm_source=yahoo.com&utm_content=3&utm_medium=rss

6 Frugal Habits Money Experts Disagree On

6 Frugal Habits Money Experts Disagree On

Cindy Lamothe  Mon, July 8, 2024  GOBankingRates

There is no end to all of the financial advice you’ll see on the internet. Money influencers will say one thing — and then you’ll promptly read a rebuttal.

If you’re trying to stay on budget, knowing how to spend wisely should be your priority. That’s why it’s important to weigh all sides of an argument and arrive at your own conclusions.

Here are some of the top frugal habits money experts disagree on.

Skipping the Latte

“Some money experts still swear by practices like ‘skip the latte, buy a home’ when today that couldn’t be further from the truth,” said Dan Kroytor, director of TailoredPay.

“Even if you skip the $6 latte you buy daily every day for 10 years, eventually, that amount of money — for example, $21,900 — will still not be enough for a down payment on a home 10 years from now,” he said. “Especially considering real estate is only getting more expensive.”

Kroytor suggested a balance of being frugal and doing things you enjoy. “The argument is whether it’s more important to be economical and frugal instead of doing things we enjoy,” he explained. “While other experts may disagree, I see no reason why we can’t do both. Know your goals, know what’s realistic and then budget for both.”

Buying in Bulk

“Let’s consider the popular frugal habit of buying in bulk to save money,” said Esther Strauss, co-founder of Step By Step Business. “Many financial experts advocate for this approach, citing the lower per-unit cost of items when purchased in larger quantities.

“However, I take a more nuanced stance on this practice,” she explained. “While buying in bulk can indeed be cost-effective for consumables that you use frequently, it can lead to overspending and waste in other scenarios.”

For example, Strauss said buying perishable items, like fresh produce or dairy, in bulk often results in throwing away unused portions that have spoiled. “This negates the savings and contributes to food waste,” she said.

Similarly, Strauss said that bulk purchases of nonperishable items can lead to overconsumption or stockpiling of goods you don’t really need.

“For families in smaller living spaces, storing large quantities of products can also become an issue, leading to clutter and disorganization,” she noted. “My perspective is influenced by observing consumer behavior and the misallocation of resources that bulk buying sometimes encourages.”

Strauss suggested a more balanced approach. “Instead, I recommend a more tailored approach: buy in bulk selectively, focusing on items that you are certain to use and have the space to store efficiently,” Strauss added. This method, she said, ensures that the benefits of buying in bulk are realized without the accompanying pitfalls.

To Read More:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/6-frugal-habits-money-experts-110054778.html

5 Financial Mistakes Millennials Got From Their Parents

5 Financial Mistakes Millennials Got From Their Parents

David Nadelle  Tue, July 9, 2024  GOBankingRates

While only 27% of Americans across all ages say their money-saving habits are “excellent,” a new study found 65% of millennials and Gen Z-ers worry about baby boomers’ impact on their future.

The survey, conducted by OnePoll for National Debt Relief between Aug. 4-8, 2023, found that although younger generations were concerned about the effect older generations’ financial decisions will have on them, 62% of all respondents (split evenly by generation) admit they make poor money decisions sometimes. Almost half (48%) of respondents said their parents influenced their money habits.

With 51% of respondents admitting they have been in debt at some point, and 42% currently experiencing money troubles, the study also found that many Americans are eager to destigmatize “shameful” debt (36%) and are taking responsibility for their bad spending and savings habits.

There’s a lot of guilt and shame people feel when they’re in debt and that needs to change,” said Natalia Brown, chief compliance and consumer affairs officer at National Debt Relief. “The data shows that most of us face challenges with money and that none of us are alone in that.”

Here are the five most common bad money habits that you might have learned from your parents — and ones you need to unlearn as soon as possible — according to the National Debt Relief/OnePoll study:

Writing Off Small Purchases As Insignificant (43%)

It’s easy to make simple purchases that can add up over time, so you have to hold yourself accountable for how you spend your money. Even if it seems like an insignificant purchase, write it down or acknowledge it. Spending even a few extra dollars a week can account for hundreds of dollars a year.

Instead of making impulsive purchases like in-app purchases that give you that quick dopamine hit, give it 24 hours. If you still want (or even remember) to make that purchase, you should buy it.

Gambling (39%)

Gambling can develop into an addiction quickly. When gambling becomes uncontrollable, the problem gambler will spend even more money, attempting and usually failing, to win back their losses.

Regardless of income, those who spend too much on gambling are prone to have overdue bills, max out their credit cards and borrow money. Even low levels of gambling are linked to financial hardship and unemployment, per The Guardian.

If you or someone you know is struggling with a gambling addiction, it’s best to get help so you can start recovering your mental health and your finances. Call 1-800-GAMBLER for more information.

Using Credit To Pay Bills (33%)

Paying your bills with a quick credit card swipe or online payment can be tempting. When credit cards are considered an extension of income, people are often unable to pay the balance off entirely, leading to hefty credit card interest charges and increases in debt.

Credit card debt should always be counted as an expense in your budget. If you find you’re relying on them too much, it might be time to cut them up or consider a credit freeze so that you can curb your spending.

To Read More:  https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/millennials-boomer-parents-blame-shameful-180041296.html

10 Industries That Are Double Billing You — How You Can Avoid Paying So Much

10 Industries That Are Double Billing You — How You Can Avoid Paying So Much

J. Arky  Tue, July 9, 2024   GOBankingRates

When was the last time you took a good look at your bill to make sure that what you were charged for is the correct amount? You might want to start double-checking the fine print and doing the math yourself since several industries are getting called out for double billing customers.

You might be able to negotiate to get the charges reversed or a partial refund, but at the end of the day, that’s time and money down the drain.

How can you avoid paying so much and not get double billed? It all starts with knowing which industries are notorious for charging customers twice. Here are the ones to be on high alert for so you do not get billed twice over.

Telecommunications

Telecom providers are notorious for hidden fees and erroneous charges, according to David L. Blain, CFA and CEO at BlueSky Wealth Advisors.

“As someone who has audited telecom bills for over 20 years, I’ve found erroneous charges at nearly every company,” said Dylan Cleppe of OneStop Northwest LLC. “Carefully scrutinize your bill each month and question any charge that seems off. Negotiate the best rate upfront, then lock in that rate with a multi-year contract.”

“Carefully review your bills each month for any unwarranted additions like device insurance or data overage fees,” echoed Blain. “Don’t be afraid to call and dispute incorrect charges.”

Insurance

Ben Klesinger, co-founder and CEO of Reliant Insurance Group and Helping Hand Financial, said, “Insurance companies frequently tack on extra fees when policies renew.

“Always ask for an itemized renewal notice and question any charge not clearly tied to your coverage limits or payouts last year. Don’t be afraid to shop [around with] other companies.”

Healthcare

“Healthcare providers may charge separately for facility fees, physician fees and anesthesia — often from different billing groups,” Blain said.

“Healthcare is an industry designed to bill as much as insurers will cover,” Cleppe agreed. “Question costs that seem disproportionate to the services rendered. Check that each provider who treated you is in your insurance network. Out-of-network doctors and facilities will balance the difference [of the bill for you] between their charge and your insurer’s allowed amount.”

Blain advised customers to request “an itemized bill to ensure you’re only paying for services actually received. Ask about insurance network participation for all providers before receiving treatment.”

Car Repair

To Read More:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/10-industries-double-billing-avoid-160023920.html

Social Security Will Run Out Of Money In Nine Years

Social Security Will Run Out Of Money In Nine Years

Notes From the Field by James Hickman/Simon Black   May 7, 2024

Social Security’s annual trust fund report was released yesterday… and, no surprise, the report states very clearly that trust fund balances “are projected to become depleted during 2033.”

Allow me to repeat that: Social Security’s most important trust fund will run out of money in nine years.

This is a fact, not some wild conspiracy theory; remember that the annual report is signed by top government officials including the United States Secretaries of the Treasury, Labor, and Health and Human Services… so the projection is about as official as it can get. But if you dive into the report, you quickly notice that even such a grim forecast may, in fact, be too optimistic.

Many of the key economic assumptions that they make in the report are wildly inaccurate. They assume, for example, that US fertility rate will be as high as 2.1 (i.e. 2.1 children born per woman). But, in reality, the US fertility rate has been falling for decades, and just hit another all-time low of 1.6 last year.

They’re also way off on other assumptions– like economic productivity. They assume (rather optimistically) that productivity growth will average 2%. Last year it was just 1.3%. And in 2022 productivity actually shrank by 1.9%.

They’re also way off-base in their assumptions about inflation, unemployment, and more.

Plus, just like the Congressional Budget Office’s long-term projections about the US economy, the Social Security trustees don’t account for any kind of future emergency, pandemic, recession, depression, war, financial crisis, or debt crisis.

The really ironic part is that the trustees’ assumptions fail to consider the future economic impact of Social Security going bankrupt.

Think about it– when Social Security’s trust funds suddenly run out of money, it’s going to trigger a major crisis in the United States. Clearly this will be disruptive and throw off their rosy economic assumptions. But they don’t account for this either.

Bottom line, Social Security’s demise is, at best, nine years away. And probably sooner.

So, what will happen when Social Security runs out of money?

Remember that 70 million retirees’ monthly benefits are essentially funded from three different sources.

The first source is payroll tax revenue; people currently in the labor force fork over a portion of their wages to pay Social Security benefits.

For decades, payroll tax revenue exceeded the total benefits that Social Security paid. And this surplus was invested into a special trust fund, which now totals trillions of dollars.

And that’s the second source of funding for the program: investment income from the trust fund, while the third source is the trust fund itself.

Again, for most of Social Security’s history, the trust fund was growing, and its investment income was compounding year after year.

But starting in 2021, Social Security’s annual costs have exceeded combined payroll tax revenue and investment income. So, in order to make ends meet, the program had to start dipping into its trust fund.

The fund’s reserves are now falling. And, again, by 2033, the trust fund will be fully depleted. This also means that there will be no more investment income… leaving payroll tax revenue as the sole source to fund Social Security.

Once this happens, the report states that retirees will have to suffer an immediate, substantial cut (roughly 25%) to their promised benefits. And most likely this cut will continue to become worse over time.

It’s not like there aren’t options to fix Social Security. The government could overhaul the program, raise the retirement age, or start allowing private asset managers to generate higher rates of return for the trust funds (while they still have money).

But everyone in government insists that they are not going to touch Social Security. Joe Biden never misses an opportunity to promise that he will veto any attempt to reform the program.

As a matter of fact, Joe Biden released a statement yesterday (after the trustee report was published) saying– literally in the first sentence– that “Social Security remains strong.”

Come again? What report was this guy reading?

Social Security is, by definition, NOT strong. The trust fund is indisputably going to run out of money in nine years. But this guy is just living on another planet. He refuses to acknowledge reality, he refuses to fix the problem, and he promises to prevent other people from fixing the problem.

Now that’s leadership.

I find it remarkable, though, how many other ‘experts’ are falling in line behind the President.

Even the Wall Street Journal, which is supposed to be a conservative-leaning paper, published an article this morning to say that Social Security’s rapidly depleting trust funds are no big deal… because Congress can always just “choose” to continue funding the program.

Uh… with what money? The budget deficit is already $2 trillion per year. So, if Congress “chooses” to continue paying out 100% of Social Security benefits after 2033, it will all be funded with more debt.

The Journal then suggests that such spending “could also mean the U.S. deficit continues to grow at a pace economists find alarming, potentially weighing on the performance of the economy.”

Could? Potentially? In what reality does multi-trillion-dollar deficit and a fully depleted Social Security trust fund NOT weigh on the US economy?

It’s astonishing how few people want to acknowledge the reality. Social Security will run out of money. Benefits are at risk. And the only way to ‘save’ the program is more debt… which means more inflation, more risk to the dollar’s global reserve status, and more consequences down the road.fmay

That said, Social Security is a perfect example how to think about a Plan B. It is a known and obvious risk: the program will almost certainly run out of money.

But if you know this is going to happen down the road, you can take steps now to secure your retirement– like setting up tax-advantaged retirement accounts to set aside more money in an extremely tax efficient way.

It’s the same with inflation, the national debt, and the dollar; when you can make a very strong case for rising prices and decline in the dollar’s global reserve status in the future, there are ways to mitigate those risks today.

Real assets like gold, energy, uranium, and other critical minerals, plus the companies that produce them, will likely be fantastic investments in a debt-ridden, inflationary environment. And it just so happens that many of them are trading at ridiculously cheap prices right now.

(Subscribers to our premium investment research– check out your most recent edition which features an extremely well-managed, debt-free, highly profitable real asset producer that pays a nearly 9% dividend. Yet its stock sells for a laughably low, single Price/FCF multiple.)

Bottom line, there are completely logical and rational ways to solve these problems and mitigate these risks on your own. Don’t wait for Joe Biden to do it.

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/social-security-will-run-out-of-money-in-nine-years-150811/

Why The Dollar Will Lose Its Status As The Global Reserve Currency

Why The Dollar Will Lose Its Status As The Global Reserve Currency

Notes From the Field  By James Hickman / Simon Black

By the early 400s, the Roman Empire was coming apart at the seams and in desperate need of strong, competent leadership. In theory, Honorius should have been the right man for the job.

Born into the royal household in Constantinople, Honorius had been groomed to rule, practically since birth, by the finest experts in the realm. So even as a young man, Honorius had already accumulated decades of experience.

Yet Rome’s foreign adversaries rightfully believed Honorius to be weak, out of touch, divisive, and completely inept.

He had entered into bonehead peace treaties that strengthened Rome’s enemies. He paid vast sums of money to some of their most powerful rivals and received practically nothing in return. He made virtually no attempt to secure Roman borders, leaving the empire open to be ravaged by barbarians.

Inflation was high. Taxes were high. Economic production declined. Roman military power declined. And all of Rome’s foreign adversaries were emboldened.

To a casual observer it would have almost seemed as if Honorius went out of his way to make the Empire weaker.

One of Rome’s biggest threats came in the year 408, when the barbarian king Alaric invaded Italy; imperial defenses were so non-existent at that point that ancient historians described Alaric’s march towards Rome as unopposed and leisurely, as if they were “at some festival” rather than an invasion.

Alaric and his army arrived to the city of Rome in the autumn of 408 AD and immediately positioned their forces to cut off any supplies. No food could enter the city, and before long, its residents began to starve.

Historians have passed down horrific stories of cannibalism– including women eating their own children in order to survive.

Rather than send troops and fight, however, Honorius agreed to pay a massive ransom to Alaric, including 5,000 pounds of gold, 30,000 pounds of silver, and literally tons of other real assets and commodities.

(The equivalent in today’s money, adjusted for population, would be billions of dollars… similar to what the US released to Iran in a prisoner swap last year.)

Naturally Honorius didn’t have such a vast sum in his treasury… so Romans were forced to strip down and melt their shrines and statues in order to pay Alaric’s ransom.

Ironically, one of the statues they melted was a monument to Virtus, the Roman god of bravery and strength… leading the ancient historian Zosimus to conclude that “all which remained of Roman valor and intrepidity was totally extinguished.”

Rome had spent two centuries in the early days of the empire– from the rise of Augustus in 27 BC to the death of Marcus Aurelius in 180 AD– as the clear, unrivaled superpower. Almost no one dared mess with Rome, and few who did ever lived to tell the tale.

Modern scholars typically view the official “fall” of the Western Roman Empire in the year 476. But it’s pretty clear that the collapse of Roman power and prestige took place decades before.

When Rome was ransomed in 408 (then sacked in 410), it was obvious to everyone at the time that the Emperor no longer had a grip on power.

And before long, most of the lands in the West that Rome had once dominated– Italy, Spain, France, Britain, North Africa, etc. were under control of various Barbarian tribes and kingdoms.

The Visigoths, Ostrogoths, Vandals, Franks, Angles, Saxons, Burgundians, Berbers, etc. all established independent kingdoms. And for a while, there was no dominant superpower in western Europe. It was a multi-polar world. And the transition was rather abrupt.

This is what I think is happening now– we’re experiencing a similar transition, and it seems equally abrupt.

The United States has been the world’s dominant superpower for decades. But like Rome in the later stage of its empire, the US is clearly in decline. This should not be a controversial statement.

Let’s not be dramatic; it’s important to stay focused on facts and reality. The US economy is still vast and potent, and the country is blessed with an abundance of natural resources– incredibly fertile farmland, some of the world’s largest freshwater resources, and incalculable reserves of energy and other key commodities.

In fact, it’s amazing the people in charge have managed to screw it up so badly. And yet they have.

The national debt is out of control, rising by trillions of dollars each year. Debt growth, in fact, substantially outpaces US economic growth.

Social Security is insolvent, and the program’s own trustees (including the US Treasury Secretary) admit that its major trust fund will run out of money in just nine years.

The people in charge never seem to miss an opportunity to dismantle capitalism (i.e. the economic system that created so much prosperity to begin with) brick by brick.

Then there are ubiquitous social crises: public prosecutors who refuse to enforce the law; the weaponization of the justice system; the southern border fiasco; declining birth rates; extraordinary social divisions that are most recently evidenced by the anti-Israel protests.

And most of all the US constantly shows off its incredibly dysfunctional government that can’t manage to agree on anything, from the budget to the debt ceiling. The President has obvious cognitive disabilities and makes the most bizarre decisions to enrich America’s enemies.

Are these problems fixable? Yes. Will they be fixed? Maybe. But as we used to say in the military, “hope is not a course of action”.

Plotting this current trajectory to its natural conclusion leads me to believe that the world will enter a new “barbarian kingdom” paradigm in which there is no dominant superpower.

Certainly, there are a number of rising rivals today. But no one is powerful enough to assume the leading role in the world.

China has a massive population and a huge economy. But it too has way too many problems… with the obvious challenge that no one trusts the Communist Party. So, most likely China will not be the dominant superpower.

India’s economy will eventually surpass China’s, and it has an even bigger population. But India isn’t even close to the ballpark of being the world’s superpower.

Then there’s Europe. Combined, it still has a massive economic and trade union. But it has also been in major decline… with multiple social crises like low birth rates and a migrant invasion.

Then there are the energy powers like Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia; they are far too small to dominate the world, but they have the power to menace and disrupt it.

The bottom line is that the US is no longer strong enough to lead the world and keep adversarial nations in check. And it’s clear that other countries are already adapting to this reality.

Earlier this month, for example, China successfully launched a rocket to the moon as part of a multi-decade mission to establish an International Lunar Research Station.

By 2045, China hopes to construct a large, city-like base along with several international partners including Russia, Pakistan, Thailand, South Africa, Venezuela, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Egypt. Turkey and Nicaragua are also interested in joining.

This is pretty remarkable given how many nations are participating, even if just nominally. Yet the US isn’t part of the consortium.

This would have been unthinkable a few decades ago. But today the rest of the world realizes that they no longer need American funding, leadership, or expertise.

We can see similar examples everywhere, most notably in Israel and Ukraine. And I believe one of the next shoes to drop will be the US dollar.

After all, if the rest of the world doesn’t need the US for space exploration, and they can ignore the US when it comes down to World War 3, then why should they need the US dollar anymore?

The dollar was the clear and obvious choice as the global reserve currency back when America was the undisputed superpower. But today it’s a different world.

Foreign nations continuing to rely on the dollar ultimately means governments and central banks buying US government bonds. And why should they take such a risk when the national debt is already 120% of GDP?

In addition, Congress passed a new law a few weeks ago authorizing the Treasury Department to confiscate US dollar assets of any country it deems an “aggressor state.”

While people might think this is a morally righteous idea, the reality is that it will only turn off foreign investors. Why should China, Saudi Arabia, or anyone else buy US government bonds when they can be confiscated in a heartbeat?

All of this ultimately leads to a world in which the US dollar is no longer the dominant reserve currency. We’re already starting to see signs of that shift, and it could be in full swing by the end of the decade.

Schiff Sovereign   James Hickman/Simon Black   https://www.schiffsovereign.com/about/

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/why-the-dollar-will-lose-its-status-as-the-global-reserve-currency-150843/

Why Your Checking Account May No Longer Be Free

Why Your Checking Account May No Longer Be Free

Ana Altchek  Fri, July 5, 2024    Business Insider

Chase Bank's boss warned that new federal fee caps could make everyday banking more expensive.

Marianne Lake said the bank is planning to pass the pain of their lost profits on to customers.

Some new costs may be placed on now-free services like checking accounts and financial tools.

Everyday banking might be about to get more expensive for consumers.

Marianne Lake, the CEO of consumer and community banking at Chase Bank, said federal regulations to cap overdraft and late fees would take a bite out of the company's bottom line.  And she warned that making up that loss would be passed on to consumers, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.

Lake said the changes would be "broad, sweeping, and significant," the report said.

Some of those costs would be tacked onto services that have been free so far, like checking accounts and financial planning tools, the report said.

Business Insider reviewed a Chase presentation that covered the expected impact of proposed regulations. The presentation estimated that two out of three consumers would have to pay a fee for checking accounts if the cap went through.

Lake also said those impacted will be the ones "who can least afford to be" and credit access will also be more challenging.

Some of the regulations include a proposed $8 cap on late credit card payment fees and a $3 cap for overdrafting bank accounts. The limit is part of President Joe Biden's crackdown on hidden fees.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau estimated that about 45 million people are charged credit card late fees annually, and the change could save those people up to $220 a year.

TO READ MORE: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/jpmorgan-warns-86-million-customers-150827155.html

JPMorgan Warns 86 Million Customers They Might Have To Start Paying For Their Bank Accounts

Chris Morris   Fri, July 5, 2024

Chase Bank customers could see some additional charges in the not too distant future.

The Wall Street Journal reports the country’s biggest retail bank is warning that it might begin charging customers for their accounts. That would impact some 86 million customers.

The potential charges, says Marianne Lake, CEO of consumer and community banking at JPMorgan, are a result of new regulatory rules that cap overdraft and late fees. Lake says Chase will be passing along those increased expenses to customers, which would put an end to now-free services such as checking accounts and wealth management tools. And she says she expects other banks will follow suit.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

TO READ MORE: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/jpmorgan-warns-86-million-customers-150827155.html

7 Expenses That Will Drain Your Retirement Savings the Fastest

7 Expenses That Will Drain Your Retirement Savings the Fastest

Casey Bond  Fri, July 5, 2024

You’ve spent a good portion of your life working and saving for retirement. Once you reach that milestone, you want to feel confident that your nest egg is big enough to cover your needs in your golden years.

As you retire, it’s important to anticipate some of the costs eating into your savings. Here are seven expenses that can drain your retirement savings — and how to plan for them.

Healthcare

Even with Medicare, out-of-pocket healthcare expenses can be significant, according to Taylor Kovar, certified financial planner and CEO at The Money Couple and Kovar Wealth Management. “This includes prescriptions, surgeries, and long-term care costs,” said Kovar.

One estimate by HealthView Services Financial finds that a healthy 65-year-old couple who retired in 2021 will likely spend between $156,208 and $1 million on healthcare costs during retirement, depending on where and how long they live.

How To Plan: Kovar said it’s a good idea to have a health savings account (HSA) or a similar fund specifically for medical expenses. “Regularly reviewing your health insurance and considering supplemental insurance can also help mitigate these costs,” he added.

Homeownership

If you own a home, that can be another source of major expenses that eat into retirement funds. “As homes age, significant repairs like roof replacements or plumbing issues become more frequent,” Kovar said. From 2016 through 2020, Americans aged 65 and older spent an average of $16,880 per year on housing-related costs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

How To Plan: Kovar recommends setting aside a home maintenance fund and conducting regular home inspections to help anticipate and spread out these costs.

Inflation

Inflation can significantly impact your future savings, since you’ll need to take larger withdrawals to make up for the higher cost of living, according to Jeff Busch, partner and investment advisor representative at Lift Financial. “This can be particularly troublesome if your portfolio is made up of fixed income strategies that can’t keep up with inflation by increasing income over time,” said Busch.

How To Plan: To mitigate inflation, Busch said you may want to invest a portion of your portfolio in stocks that have historically provided better returns than bonds and cash. In general, he added, maintaining a diversified portfolio can be a big help in the long run.

Adult Children (and Their Children)

From student loans to cell phone bills, many retirees find themselves financially assisting their adult children or even their grandchildren. A study by Merrill Lynch found that in 2018, 79% of parents were providing financial support to their adult children, contributing a combined total of $500 billion annually.

How To Plan: Kovar said it’s essential to set boundaries and have open financial discussions with family to ensure this support doesn’t derail retirement plans.

To Read More:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/7-expenses-most-likely-drain-170042871.html

The Worst Case Of "Rich Kid Syndrome"

People Are Spilling On The Worst Case Of "Rich Kid Syndrome" That They Have Ever Seen, And Some Of These Might Make Your Blood Start Boiling

BuzzFeed   Thu, July 4, 2024

At some point in our lives, I am sure we all have found ourselves interacting with someone who is completely out of touch because of their wealth. And while the person might not be trying to be malicious or trying to flaunt their wealth with what they're saying, it can still leave you with a not-so-great impression of them.

Jessica Walter as Lucille Bluth says, "It's one banana, Michael. What could it cost, ten dollars?" while holding a banana in a luxurious living room

A few months back, Reddit user WaterWire was interested in just that, in particular with people who grew up wealthy, when they asked: "What’s the worst case of “rich kid syndrome” that you’ve ever seen?"

The thread got over a thousand responses. Below are the top and best comments — which will probably make you roll your eyes a few times:

1."I used to work with someone who proclaimed to be an environmentalist. She was very preachy. Once, I had a can of Coke on my desk. She said, 'You're going to recycle that, right?' She used her father's personal jet all the time. Once, just to fly from NYC to Boston to see a baseball game."

2."A girl I went to school with crashed and totaled six cars in three years, and her parents continued buying her better and newer cars 'cause every accident 'wasn’t her fault,' and if she had stuff like a backup camera and sensors, they 'wouldn’t have happened.' She got into a fender bender in the school parking lot, and her dad showed up with a wad of cash and paid the other student off."

3."A former friend stamping her foot and crying because 'dad sold the jet and I have to take a commercial flight to our ranch.'"

4."An 'influencer' wondering why other people in their home country don't spend their life traveling like them."

5."Not me, but a friend of mine was an assistant trainer at a Panera store. They hired a teenager who was only working there to meet people. One day, a group left a huge mess in the dining room. Apparently, the teen turned to my friend and said, 'Should we get the help to clean that?' And my friend had to explain that they were the help. He apparently quit not long after."

6."A senior rich kid in my high school was driving his dad's Jaguar when his buddy asked him what would happen if he threw into reverse at 60mph. So they tried it and essentially blew the transmission and the motor up. A few months later, he got a Porsche for Christmas."

7."Had a guy work for me in the military. He thought he didn’t have to do anything because his parents would just 'call their friends.' He ended up getting kicked out for LSD and cocaine use."

8."I have a lot of extended family out in California who I’ve never met, but I sometimes hear stories from my parents, who keep in touch with a few relatives out there. One of my distant cousins, who was, like, 17 at the time, intentionally totaled the new BMW his parents bought him because he wanted a Mercedes instead. Can't remember if they ended up buying him that Mercedes or not, but they probably did. Sadly."

To Read More:

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/people-spilling-worst-case-rich-034602841.html

Why So Few People Feel Secure About Money — Even When They Have Lots of It

Why So Few People Feel Secure About Money — Even When They Have Lots of It

And why the neighbors of lottery winners are often worse off.

Sean Kernan  June 21, 2024·

I’m not rich by any means. But I’ve done well enough to be comfortable, mostly because I saved aggressively early in my career. Yet I still feel like I’m only a stone’s throw from being in poverty, which is slightly irrational.

I remember having no money and having to budget until my next paycheck or risk groveling to my parents for help. It wasn’t a good life. And it still feels like yesterday, even though so many years have passed. Sadly, many people feel this way.

And to some extent — this stress can be constructive. It can mitigate risky spending. You’ll certainly never catch me with problematic expensive hobbies. But I wish I could feel more at ease about my station in life. Many of my friends are in this same psychological boat too. My buddy Brian is a software engineer, who has been making north of $180K per year — for years on end — while living in a low-cost area, and he’s still as cheap as he’s ever been.

So why are we like this? How do we level up and counteract this financial anxiety?

The origins of the problem

People tend to downgrade their financial standing. For example, per a survey by the financial firm Ameriprise Financial, only 13% of American millionaires classify themselves as wealthy. Even among those who had more than $5M in total assets — many still said they didn’t feel rich.

These weren’t people living in Silicon Valley, where $5M only gets you a shack. These were everyday people from all around the United States — still feeling underfunded.

Part of this is because of the disappearance of pensions — and fear that we’ll live on our savings and social security to get us through to old age. Both of my grandfathers had pensions, with one of them having two full separate pensions (military and government). But we are now the 401K generation — in a system that is more stressful than ever.

Why do people who have so much still feel sad about their financial standing?

Elizabeth Dunn, psychology professor at The University of British Columbia, and co-author of Happy Money: The Science of Happier Spending, looked into this very question. She found that social comparison, in particular, drives much of our financial dissatisfaction.

How we compare our income to others of similar age, education, and region of residence, greatly shapes our self-perceptions and satisfaction. Unsurprisingly, those who compared themselves to groups of higher income, tended to be less happy and more anxious about money.

Unfortunately, a majority of people tend to do upward comparisons. The severity of this impact was most notable: “The income of the reference group is about as important as one’s own income for individual happiness.”

It pains me to admit it: I’m 100% a victim of this statistic. I often watch videos of lavish mansion tours on YouTube, despite knowing the likelihood of me ever owning such a property is slim (unless I somehow write the next iteration of Atomic Habits). But I still enjoy oohing and aahing over the stunning architecture, classy furniture and paintings hanging on the walls. It’s entirely possible this admiration is only heightening my anxiety about money.

Yet I know as well as you that the person in that mansion isn’t likely to be happier than the rest of us. Within a year of becoming rich, or facing tragedy, the vast majority of people return to their baseline happiness.

What’s most telling is that winning the lottery can significantly impact your neighbor’s wellbeing. One study in Canada found that as the magnitude of someone’s lottery winnings went up, their neighbors odds of financial distress and borrowing increased alongside it.

To Read More:

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/story/why-so-few-people-feel-secure-about-money--even-when-they-have-lots-of-it-212029309.html