Five Predictions For The Coming Decade Of Decline

Five Predictions For The Coming Decade Of Decline 

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black)  June 11, 2024

There is a well-known modern proverb (often attributed to the novelist G. Michael Hopf) that goes, "Weak men create hard times, hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men."

The saying sums up the cyclical nature of the rise and fall of societies– and it’s a topic in which I have tremendous personal interest.

Having recently reached middle age, I can comfortably say with the benefit of hindsight that I was born and grew up during the American prime time– the time at which the wealthiest and most powerful country in the history of the world was at its peak.

The US is still an incredible country with so much prosperity and opportunity. But it would be completely naive and ignorant to claim that America is not in substantial decline.

Its standing in the world has waned, much of it just over the past few years. It’s hard for adversary nations to take you seriously when your President shakes hands with thin air and embassy employees in Kabul have to be evacuated by helicopter.

Financial challenges keep piling up– from the insolvency of Social Security to the $35 trillion national debt to the inflation problem that just won’t go away.

And social divisions, many of which have been bizarrely self-inflicted, seem to grow more tense by the day.

Fortunately, America’s decline began from a historically high peak. So even in its diminished state, again, it is still wealthy and powerful.

But the real concern isn’t where the country is today. It’s the trend, i.e. where the country will end up in ten years’ time if it stays on current course.

I’ve spent the past fifteen years studying similar cases throughout history– the US is far from alone as the only nation that has ever peaked and declined.

And one of the best works on the subject I’ve ever read is The Collapse of Complex Societies, by anthropologist Joseph Tainter.

“Collapse” is a strong word and conjures images of anarchy and death. But Tainter’s definition is more precise; “collapse” doesn’t mean that a society or nation ceases to exist, but that it experiences a steep decline in political, social, and economic stability.

This is what (I believe it’s clear) the US is going through right now, and the trend is accelerating.

Tainter’s book examines the common factors of how different societies throughout history declined– from ancient Mesopotamia to Western Rome. And his analysis shows that one of the key culprits in collapse is the inability of a government to recognize problems… or to solve them.

Many ancient Roman emperors were legendary for failing to recognize the horrible problems brought on by their policies and incompetence– inflation, invasion, etc.

This pretty much describes the US federal government in a nutshell.

Politicians can barely talk about problems in a civil and rational manner. And quite often they refuse to even acknowledge them.

We’ve seen this over and over again with issues such as inflation, the southern border, crime, and social security.

For example, the Social Security trustees publish a report each year stating plainly that the program is going to run out of money by 2033. But no one in Washington wants to talk about it. Joe Biden has even pledged to veto ANY efforts to reform the program.

Biden’s top officials also repeat the bold-faced lie that “the border is secure”, while actively encouraging illegal immigration. The federal government even sued Texas to stop the state from securing the border on its own.

The people in charge demonize and defund police, decriminalize theft, and elect progressive prosecutors who let violent criminals go free.

It’s the same dysfunction with federal spending. These people can’t even acknowledge that a $35 trillion national debt is catastrophic. Most politicians happily ignore it, and others come up with more outrageous spending to further the debt spiral.

They cannot acknowledge the problem, let alone discuss it rationally. Merely passing a budget now routinely devolves into a crisis.

Our view of where this trend leads is clear:

1. Inflation is coming.

There is little hope of responsible spending. The government’s own projections forecast an extra $20 trillion in new debt over the coming decade, and frankly that’s optimistic.

History shows that explosions in national debt are financed by the Federal Reserve creating new money– which ultimately causes inflation.

When the Fed created $5 trillion of new money during the pandemic, we got 9% inflation. How much inflation will $20+ trillion cause?

And the worse inflation becomes, the more urgency the rest of the world will have to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency… which will result in even MORE inflation in the US.

It’s a vicious cycle in which inflation will create more inflation. We project this is 5-7 years away.

2. Social Security is not going to be there for you.

Social Security is not a political problem; it’s an arithmetic problem. And the math just doesn’t add up.

Every year the US Secretary of Treasury signs the report saying plainly that, by 2033, Social Security’s trust funds will run out of money. Benefits will have to be permanently cut by 25% and then become worse over time.

3. Higher taxes are virtually guaranteed.

Politicians love claiming that people should pay their “fair share” but can never quite define how much that means.

And they have already moved the goalposts on who exactly owes society more— the “billionaires” became the top 1%, then quickly shot up to the top 5%, then 10% and soon it will be the top 25%.

Higher taxes won’t just be federal. State and local taxes— from sales tax to property tax— are very likely to cost more, while your governments provide much less.

4. Continued social chaos.

Every time it feels like the lack of civility and unity across Western Civilization can’t get any worse, something new erupts.

The latest is university students screaming “from the river to the sea” and “Just Stop Oil” while defacing artwork and public monuments. Rising tides of socialism and racial animosity never seem to ebb, and idiotic wokeness just won’t go away.

These social divisions will likely continue to grow.

5. Maybe most importantly, major geopolitical disruptions.

As the financial and social decline of the US becomes increasingly obvious to the rest of the world, adversaries are becoming more emboldened.

Nations like China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are likely to grow more assertive, and there will be significant calls to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.

Soft war incidents like spy balloons, manufactured pandemics, cyberattacks, etc. will persist— and if we’re very lucky, there won’t be a shooting war. I give it 50/50.

It’s exasperating. Anybody over the age of about 35 remembers a time when it wasn’t like this.

Yet now chaos is the norm. I’m not saying this to be dramatic– it’s important to be intellectually honest.

Part of being intellectually honest means acknowledging that, again, the US is still a great country with an incredibly powerful economy, boasting some of the most valuable businesses in the world.

And Americans still enjoy an extremely high standard of living— albeit one that has been disrupted in recent years by the combination of inflation, crime, and social chaos.

The most exasperating part is that these problems are fixable.

The US government could spend responsibly, encourage capitalism and innovation to grow the economy, and its debt problems would melt away. The dollar would remain valuable. US leadership might even earn back global trust.

But with the current people in charge, I wouldn’t hold my breath. And I also wouldn’t put all my hopes and dreams on the voters smartening up anytime soon.

Yet there are still plenty of solutions that independent-minded individuals can execute without relying on the government.

For example:

Problem: Future inflation will pose a major problem to one’s savings.

Solution: Invest in assets which do well during, or even benefit from, inflation— real assets such as energy, mining, and productive technology. Right now many of these are selling for record low prices, yet poised for substantial growth.

Problem: An overrun border and rising crime rates threaten cities and living standards.

Solution: Obtain a second residency in a foreign country where you really enjoy spending time, or even obtain a second passport. This way you and your family will always have a place to go if the need ever arises.

Problem: Social Security’s trust funds will run out of money within a decade.

Solution: Maximize contributions to retirement accounts— including a special type of 401k which could allow you to double contributions and direct where funds are invested. This lowers your taxable income, puts more money away for retirement, and allows the investments to grow tax-free.

There are solutions for people who, unlike the government, are willing to recognize the problems and actually do something about it.

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/five-predictions-for-the-coming-decade-of-decline-151037/

If you’re feeling a bit overwhelmed and unsure how to get started, I want to take a moment and introduce you to our newest product called Schiff Sovereign Premium.

To Read More:   Click here to find out more.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

4 Ways the Upper Class Handles Inflation That the Middle Class Could Learn From

4 Ways the Upper Class Handles Inflation That the Middle Class Could Learn From

Jake Safane   Mon, June 10, 2024

Inflation can be a double-edged sword. On one side, it can cut into your budget by raising the cost of essentials like housing, food, and transportation. But it can also be harnessed to grow your wealth, such as by increasing the interest you earn on your savings.

In some sense, being wealthy makes it easier to benefit from inflation. If you have $100 in savings, the difference between a 1% annual percentage yield (APY) on a savings account and a 5% APY is only $4. But if you have $100,000 saved, then the difference is $4,000.

Still, it’s better to earn that extra $4 on a $100 in savings than, say, lose money due to bank fees or pay interest when borrowing money if your balance turns negative. And over time, you can build up your savings and investments more to benefit from inflation further, much like many wealthy people do.

Specifically, consider the following four ways the upper class handles inflation that the middle class could learn from.

Wealthy people know the best money secrets. Learn how to copy them.

Staying Invested

While periods of inflation might stress you out and make you feel like you need to pull all of your money out of investments so that you have more cash on hand, that can be counterproductive. Instead, many wealthy people benefit from sticking with diversified investing.

“First off, they know how to stay invested in the right places, even when the economy is shaky. They spread their money across real estate, stocks, and commodities — assets that usually go up in value when prices rise,” said Jaqueline Schadeck, CEO at Golden Wealth Strategies and host of PBS show My Money Mentors.

Preparing for the Unexpected

Another way the upper class handles inflation is that they tend to be prepared for the unexpected.

“Inflation can sometimes be a surprise to many families, especially for bills that are paid yearly. For example, a lot of people have been caught off guard by how much insurance and property taxes have increased just in the last year,” said Patrick Marcinko, financial advisor at Bogart Wealth.

While it’s hard to know what those price increases will be, you can prepare by budgeting for emergencies and variability.

“Wealthy individuals ensure they have an emergency fund, or cash set aside, that can help them cover surprise expenses. This helps them avoid relying on debt when expenses turn out to be a lot more than they had expected,” said Marcinko.

Note, however, that where you keep your emergency fund matters.

 “If inflation is higher than the interest rate on savings, the purchasing power of your money is eroding,” added Marcinko.

Some high-yield savings accounts can keep up with or exceed inflation. And if you have excess savings beyond what’s needed for an emergency fund — experts often suggest around 3-6 months of living expenses — then that could prompt you to keep setting aside money for investments that can potentially keep pace with or outgain inflation.

To Read More:  https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/4-ways-upper-class-handles-140033766.html

8 Upper Class Money Traps That Ruin Your Wealth

8 Upper Class Money Traps That Ruin Your Wealth

Cindy Lamothe  Mon, June 10, 2024  GoBankingRates

Having a higher income doesn’t make you immune to making poor financial decisions. Those in the upper class might have access to more resources, but they can also easily fall for money traps that may jeopardize their wealth.

“One bad money habit that I have noticed among wealthy individuals is overspending,” said Paige Robinson, real estate investor and owner of House Buyers. “With their high income, some people tend to develop a habit of living beyond their means and indulging in expensive purchases or lifestyle choices.”

She added that this can lead to mounting debt and a false sense of financial security, as these people may believe that their high income will always cover their expenses. Below are eight more financial missteps the wealthy should be wary of making.

Believing You Have Unlimited Funds

“The most common money mistake I see wealthy people make is the false sense of security they have in their current bank balance,” said Martin Gasparian, attorney and owner of the law firm Maison Law. “They seem to think the money will always be there, without real awareness that zero is indeed a number, and at some point without proper planning, it may just come up.”

He continued, “So perhaps more of an attitude than behavior, I advise my financial clients to keep a keen eye on their current financial condition, as well as how they intend to stay there.”

Wealthy people know the best money secrets. Learn how to copy them.

Impulsive Spending

Even if someone has a lot of money, it doesn’t give them a free pass to spend recklessly, warned Sherman Standberry, licensed CPA and managing partner at My CPA Coach.

 “Some wealthy people can get so used to having plenty of disposable income, that they develop a habit of buying things they don’t or will ever need,” he explained. “If they’re not careful enough, this habit can lead to some financial trouble in the long run.”

Not Vetting Who You Give Money

Another bad money habit that the wealthy succumb to, according to Gasparian, is the habit of handing out money to people who — while may seem in need – -really have no intention of paying them back.

“This includes investments that are not properly vetted or any large-scale financial purchases that lack forethought and true investment purpose.”

Neglecting To Pay Bills on Time

“I have also seen many well-to-do clients with dismal credit scores and a ledger full of late notices,” said Gasparian. “Those with capital may know how much money they have, but if their bills are delinquent or unattended to, this type of behavior leads to an unfavorable financial impression, and if one’s credit history is ever called into question, such debt may come back to haunt someone in a poor way.”

To Read More:  https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/8-upper-class-money-traps-150052645.html

I’m a Financial Advisor: Here Are the 6 Worst Secrets You Can Keep from Me

I’m a Financial Advisor: Here Are the 6 Worst Secrets You Can Keep from Me

Cara Danielle Brown   Sat, Jun 8, 2024,

Some may be surprised to learn that the relationship between a client and their financial advisor can be an intimate one — largely because the events occurring in a client’s personal and professional life can have a significant impact on his or her financial future. And that means all those events — no matter how bad or ugly — need to be disclosed. It may even help to think of your financial advisor like a monetary life coach.

For various reasons, ranging from pride to shame, clients often fail to reveal sensitive information to their advisors which can put their financial future in jeopardy. To find out more, GOBankingRates spoke with seasoned financial advisors to reveal the worst secrets you can keep.

Income or Assets from Illegal Activities

For CFP Stephen Kates, this one tops the list largely due to the fact that there is a risk such activities might taint the advisor, which can destroy their career. If a client manages to hide income or assets from unsavory activities and this comes to light, the blowback for the financial advisor could include civil fines, sanctions and reputational damage.

And it’s not as simple as the financial advisor claiming ignorance given the “Know Your Client Rule,” which lays out a process of background checks that financial institutions must adhere to in order to guard against financial crimes. If anything manages to creatively slip through the cracks, the punishment can be swift.

Hiding Assets or Investments

Kates explained that some clients take a piece-meal approach to money management, choosing not to disclose certain assets because they prefer to manage them on their own or have an entirely different financial institution manage them instead. However, Kates said, “One of the most important parts of building a portfolio is having a cohesive strategy. When you hide assets, you risk the advisor recommending investments that are not appropriate in light of the true breadth of your assets.”

Overstating Income

On the opposite end of hiding assets is overstating income, explained certified financial planner and founder of Retire to Abundance, Tyler Meyer, who once had a couple report their income as 30% higher than it actually was. Turned out, they were reporting their gross income instead of their net income.

“We had to have a very real conversation about why they weren’t hitting their savings goals,” said Meyer. “We were able to set more realistic goals, including their savings rate, but more importantly, a more realistic timeline to retire.” Overstating income can lead to inappropriate investment strategies and unrealistic goals.

Hidden Debts

In the absence of a complete financial picture, Meyer explained, advisors can’t adequately help clients in effectively managing their debt, avoiding excessive interest payments or prioritizing debt reduction.

To Read More:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/m-financial-advisor-6-worst-140019772.html

5 Common Emergency Expenses — And How Much They Cost on Average

5 Common Emergency Expenses — And How Much They Cost on Average

Cindy Lamothe    GoBanking Rates  Fri, June 7, 2024

One thing in life is certain: things are unpredictable unimaginable ways. While you can’t know what the future holds, you can plan for it. Because being unprepared can drain your emergency fund empty and leave you in the poor house.

“If your car breaks down, the cost to fix it can vary greatly,” said Melanie Musson, a finance expert with Clearsurance. “If you have a flat tire, you may need to replace all your tires, which will cost about $600 or more. However, you can expect to pay $2,000 or more for a replacement if your transmission goes. A new radiator will cost around $1,000. If you need a new battery, you have an easy fix for about $100.”

Justin Godur, financial expert and CEO of Capital Max, says understanding these common emergency expenses and their potential impact on your finances is essential for effective financial planning.

“By anticipating these costs and preparing accordingly, you can protect your financial well-being and avoid significant stress during emergencies.”

Below, experts outline exactly how much some of these common emergency expenses will cost you on average.

Car Breakdown

“A car breakdown is one of the most frequent and costly emergency expenses,” Godur said. “The average cost for a major car repair, such as a transmission or engine replacement, can range from $3,000 to $7,000.”

He says even minor repairs, like fixing a brake system or replacing a fuel pump, can cost between $300 to $1,000.

“Regular maintenance and an emergency savings fund can help mitigate these unexpected costs,” Godur said.

Job Loss

According to experts, losing a job is a significant financial shock.

“The average duration of unemployment in the U.S. is about 22 weeks, during which time individuals need to cover living expenses without a steady income,” Godur said.

Musson notes the same.

“If you lose your job and are eligible for unemployment, you can expect to lose half of what you were making,” Musson said. “Unemployment services are a nightmare to work through in many parts of the country, so you can expect to have a lag time of several months, during which time you’ll have no income. So, if you were making $5,000 a month, in a best-case scenario, you’d lose $2,500 a month, and in a worst-case scenario, you’d lose $5,000 a month.”

Godur says that depending on your lifestyle and location, this could mean needing between $10,000 to $20,000 to stay afloat.

“Building an emergency fund with three to six months’ worth of expenses is crucial to weather such storms.”

To Read  More:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/5-common-emergency-expenses-much-140111547.html

9 Times To Always Have $1 and $5 Bills on Hand While Traveling

9 Times To Always Have $1 and $5 Bills on Hand While Traveling

Dawn Allcot  Thu, June 6, 2024  GoBankingRates

As we shift toward a cashless economy, there are still times you want cash on hand. For instance, when you fuel up at the gas pump, you can save as much as 10 cents per gallon — that’s more than $1 if you have a 12-gallon tank and take it down close to empty. There are other times, especially on vacation, when you’ll want a stash of $1 or $5 bills.

Before you leave for a trip, it’s wise to withdraw some $1 and $5 bills from the ATM and keep them in your pocket, a change purse, or your wallet for easy access.

In fact, you might find yourself reaching for your wallet more than you might imagine on vacation in the U.S. Just getting from the airport into your hotel room often requires contact with multiple service providers who all supplement their income with tips.

1. Restaurant Servers

Most restaurants allow you to leave a tip for the server on your credit card when you pay the bill. But tipping in cash, instead, puts money in the server’s pocket that evening. And for many people living paycheck to paycheck, that extra money can make a difference. That’s why it’s a good idea to carry cash for tipping.

The standard rule is to tip 20%. Restaurants often publish suggested tip amounts at the bottom of the receipt, saving you the trouble of pulling out your phone to do the math.

You may also want to carry cash to pay for your restaurant meal. According to LawPay.com, in all but a handful of states, restaurants are permitted to add credit card surcharges to your bill — and many do.

Businesses in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, and New York are prohibited from adding credit card surcharges, although New York allows a “cash discount” that’s essentially the same thing as a surcharge.

If you want to save money on vacation, read your restaurant bill carefully and avoid surcharges by paying in cash.

2. Housekeeping at the Hotel

If you’re staying in a hotel that cleans rooms daily, try to leave between $1 and $5 per day, according to Southern Living. There might be a new housekeeper each day. If the hotel only provides service every few days, it’s fine to leave a tip at the end of your stay. If you’re in a large suite or a luxury hotel, you might increase that amount to $10 per night or more.

Make sure to leave the tip in a visible spot, such as on the nightstand. If the hotel has stationery and a pen in the room, it’s a nice touch to leave a quick thank you note.

3. Room Service

If you order food from the hotel restaurant, it’s easy to put the charge on your room bill. But it’s a good idea to have money to tip the person delivering the food. Just as you would in a sit-down restaurant, 15% to 20% of your bill is the norm, according to Travel + Leisure.

4. Hotel Bellhop

Justin Nels, managing director of Isla Bella Beach Resort in Marathon, Florida, told travel site AFAR.com that it’s a good idea to tip your bellhop between $2 and $5 per bag, depending on the size and weight of your luggage.

To Read More:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/9-times-always-1-5-183141249.html   

6 Great Money Lessons From the 1950s You Should Use Today

6 Great Money Lessons From the 1950s You Should Use Today

Angela Mae  Thu, Jun 6, 2024,

America in the 1950s was a vastly different place than it is today. Unemployment rates were low, individual purchasing power was high, and mass production and new technologies were making everyday goods and services readily available and cheaper.

Many young adults in the 1950s grew up during the Great Depression — 1929 to 1941. As they went on to launch their own careers, start their own families and pursue the American dream, they did so with the financial lessons they learned along the way.

And those lessons? They were passed down to their children and their children’s children.

While the 1950s might seem ever so distant, many of the lessons that came about back then are still significant today. Living within your means, owning what you have, saving up for the future — these are just some of the great money lessons from back then that you should use today.

Wealthy people know the best money secrets. Learn how to copy them.

Live Within Your Means

Learning to live within your means is just as important now as it was 20, 50 or even 100 years ago.

“In the 1950s, most families stuck to pretty much the same budget from year to year, with people spending only what they earned and never going into debt when they [could avoid it],” said Erika Kullberg, a personal finance expert, attorney and founder of Erika.com.

It helped that the first consumer credit card didn’t come about until 1958, when Bank of America launched BankAmericard. Credit simply wasn’t as readily accessible as it is today.

“In a world where credit is easy, it’s more important now than ever to shop around, practice self-discipline and save rather than borrow,” said Kullberg.

If you must use credit or loans for something, like a house or school, do so with extreme caution so that you don’t end up taking on debt you can’t afford.

Live Like Your Money’s Going To Disappear

Living like your money will disappear doesn’t mean spending everything immediately. Quite the opposite, in fact.

“In the ’50s, many adults remembered struggling through the Great Depression,” said Todd Stearn, founder and CEO of The Money Manual. “With low inflation and unemployment and high wages, the middle class had more spending money than ever in the ’50s, but many were so impacted by the things they and their parents had been through financially that they often saved carefully despite the good fortune many had found. That caution with money is just as valuable today.”

Save as Much as You Can, But Use Your Savings as Intended

To Read More:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/6-great-money-lessons-1950s-150010941.html

It’s Vital That You Keep These 7 Financial Documents Forever

It’s Vital That You Keep These 7 Financial Documents Forever — Here’s Why

Vawn Himmelsbach  Mon, June 3, 2024

Many of us have piles of papers we’re saving "just in case,” probably gathering dust somewhere.

While some of those documents could probably head straight to the shredder, there are others that you should keep forever — and preferably not in a cardboard box in the basement.

But sometimes we just don’t know what we need to keep (and for how long), and what we can safely get rid of.

Here are seven financial documents you shouldn’t get rid of (ever) — and why.

7 Documents You Should Never Lose

1. Birth certificate. Your original birth certificate (or adoption papers) is used to prove your age at various life stages, such as obtaining a driver’s license or applying for Social Security benefits. It will also help your family obtain a death certificate when the time comes.

2. Social Security card. You need the nine-digit number on this card to get a job, rent an apartment and collect government benefits, and you may need it to open a bank account or apply for a credit card. The Social Security Administration (SSA) recommends keeping your card in a safe place and only sharing your number when required.

3. Marriage license. Your marriage license affirms that you and your spouse did, indeed, get married. This can come in handy if you want to claim a Social Security spousal benefit in retirement.

4. Divorce records. Your settlement agreement includes the division of marital property and the terms for child and/or spousal support, so you’ll want to hang onto that. Plus, if you were married for 10 years or more (and aren’t remarried), you may be able to claim Social Security benefits based on your ex’s record.

5. Loan payoff statements. This is important if you’ve negotiated a settlement that’s less than the original debt. That’s because if the debt is sold to a debt collector, the new debt collector may not have a copy of the documentation proving that you settled under those terms.

To Read More:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/vital-keep-7-financial-documents-110000136.html

Gold Will Soon Displace The US Dollar, And Americans Are Missing Out

Gold Will Soon Displace The US Dollar, And Americans Are Missing Out

Notes From the Field By James Hickman (Simon Black) June 3 2024

Next month will mark 80 years since the US dollar was formally anointed as the world’s reserve currency.

It was July 1944. And with the war in Europe near its denouement, governments were already trying to plan what the postwar world would look like. Most urgently, they needed to figure out how to rebuild their devastated economies.

Just think about the mess they were in: nearly every industrialized country in Europe had been destroyed by war. Manufacturing and farming were both in the dumps, and they had very little savings to invest in economic revival.

They also had a gigantic mess when it came to international trade. Dozens of countries each had their own currencies, so commercial trade meant each government keeping 20-30 currencies in reserve.

France, for example, would have to hold Austrian schillings, British pounds, Spanish pesetas, Italian lira, Dutch guilders, Soviet rubles, etc. in reserve, just to be able to trade.

A much, much simpler solution was for every country to use the same currency to trade with each other. And there was no question about which currency would be the right choice: the US dollar.

In 1944, the United States still had a strong and powerful economy. It had robust capital markets and a well-developed financial system. It was the only country left standing.

So, representatives from more than 40 nations gathered that summer in picturesque Bretton Woods, New Hampshire and formally agreed to use the US dollar for international trade and commerce.

More specifically, each country fixed its exchange rate to the US dollar, while the US dollar was fixed to gold.

It only lasted about thirty years. By the early 1970s, the original Bretton Woods deal had been completely undone. Currencies floated freely against each other (including the dollar), and the US dollar terminated its link with gold.

And yet (thanks in part to Saudi Arabia agreeing to sell oil in dollars), the US dollar has continued to remain the dominant reserve currency through today.

For the most part that was still a sensible bet; the US has been the world’s #1 economy for the past five decades. But the cracks are obvious.

The US federal debt is a national embarrassment. At $35 trillion, the debt is far larger than the entire US economy… and it gets worse every year.

The US government is also completely dysfunctional. The vitriol and enmity, among the parties and within the parties, is so extreme that virtually nothing productive or beneficial ever takes place. The business of government now is merely two sides screaming that the other is a threat to democracy.

The President barely knows where he is half the time, and the other half he spends shredding the Constitution to engage in some anti-capitalist, inflationary, fanatical woke climate agenda.

Sadly, this isn’t a one-time blip. America’s governance and finances have been deteriorating for most of this century-- starting with the endlessly expensive War on Terror, through the free-spending Obama years, to the pandemic… and now the very real prospect that the next four years could look very similar to the previous four years.

America is supposed to be a reliable, stabilizing force in the world. But today’s America has lost its grip. And foreign nations have noticed.

Most people alive today don’t remember a world in which the dollar wasn’t #1 and therefore cannot fathom a world in which this is no longer the case. But it’s irrational to assume that something will continue indefinitely, forever, simply because of the status quo today.

It’s not 1944 anymore. Back then there were no other options… and no one who even came close to rivaling the military and economic superiority of the United States.

Today both of those are in decline. It’s not to say the military can no longer fight or that the economy is in complete shambles. But America no longer has the unrivaled position it enjoyed for so long.

More importantly, the trend isn’t looking good. From an economic perspective, the national debt is set to increase by another $20 trillion over the next decade… likely triggering a nasty run of stagflation like the US experienced in the 1970s.

The US military, meanwhile, continues its downward slide. Recruitment is absolutely abysmal. Key weapons systems, fighter jets, tanks, and naval vessels are borderline obsolete.

The US Navy’s fleet of ships and submarines (which would be critical in any conflict against China) is the oldest and smallest it’s been since the end of World War II. Nearly 1,000 military aircraft will be retired from service in the next five years alone, and there is no concrete plan to replace them.

Nor is there any money to do so.

Frankly it is exceedingly difficult to believe that, in light of America’s declining power and prestige, the rest of the world will continue accepting the US dollar as the global reserve currency for much longer.

We’re already seeing signs of this change; plenty of countries are starting to trade with one another in different currencies, including Chinese renminbi and Indian rupee, and this trend will likely accelerate over the next several years.

I think it’s even possible there could be an event of some sort-- perhaps the US government defaults on its debt, or there’s even a shooting war or cyberattack-- which triggers a new Bretton Woods style conference.

The key difference between now and 1944 is that there was only one option back then-- the US. And pretty much everyone had confidence in America.

That’s not the case today. Few rational people have the same level of confidence in the US government. Yet almost no one trusts the Chinese either.

But just like 1944, there is an obvious solution… and one that everyone already trusts: gold.

Nearly every country already holds gold as a reserve asset, so there would be very little change to the way they currently do business.

I’ve written about this before-- I believe this is why so many central banks around the world have been on a gold-buying spree. In fact, this is THE reason why gold is near its all-time high: central banks have been buying it by the metric ton.

You have to understand that central banks aren’t speculators. They don’t care about price. They buy for strategic reasons… and I believe that the central bank gold purchases that have been occurring over the past few years are a key sign that the global financial regime will be changing.

Individual investors, meanwhile, have been selling gold.

North American investors have sold off more than $4 billion worth of gold ETFs in the first four months of this year, with $2 billion of that just in the month of April. And gold ETF holdings are now at their lowest level in four years.

Central banks are buying. Individual investors are selling. It seems pretty clear that people aren’t paying attention to the warning signs.

Yes, gold is near its all-time high. But that doesn’t mean it can’t go much higher… especially if there’s a catalyst. And there absolutely is.

As a final point, I would point out again that even while gold is near its all-time high, shares of high quality, profitable, dividend-paying gold miners are laughably cheap.

That’s because central banks only buy physical gold bullion (which has pushed up the price of gold). They do not buy gold stocks… hence many of these businesses are available for outrageous bargains.

To your freedom,   James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/gold-will-soon-displace-the-us-dollar-and-americans-are-missing-out-151007/

4 Purchases Financial Experts Regret and What They Wish They Had Spent Money On

4 Purchases Financial Experts Regret and What They Wish They Had Spent Money On

Laura Bogart  Thu, May 30, 2024

Financial advisors may know a lot of things about wisely spending money, but they don’t know everything. Even the best educated, most experienced and all around savviest financial expert is still, at the end of the day, a human being trying to make the best decisions based on the information they have on hand.

Sometimes, these advisors regret their decisions in hindsight. And sometimes, looking back on the purchases they regret the most will teach the experts in a more intimate way than they’d get in their studies or on the job.

GOBankingRates talked to some financial experts about the purchases they most regret and what they now wish they’d purchased instead.

Investing In a Startup

As the co-founder and CEO of Reliant Insurance Group and Helping Hand Financial, Ben Klesinger is a seasoned financial professional. But that doesn’t mean that he didn’t have to acquire some of his expertise the hard way by making investments he would come to regret.

Early in his career, Klesinger invested heavily in what he called “a promising but unproven fintech startup.” Citing generally high levels of enthusiasm for technology, he put in about $200,000 of his own capital. Though he expected to see quick returns, what he got was a whole lot of headaches.

“The startup struggled with regulatory issues and market competition. In the end, we lost nearly the entire investment,” he said. “I learned the hard way that even if a business idea sounds revolutionary, proper due diligence is indispensable.”

In hindsight, Klesinger wishes he’d applied a more balanced approach, like investing in a diversified portfolio of mutual funds or even tech-focused ETFs, which would have allowed him to get exposure to the tech sector without taking on such a high risk.

A Fancy Car

Like many people who have worked hard and want to show off their success, Klesinger once purchased “an extravagant car” that he also hoped would serve as a solid investment. Unfortunately, that car which cost him $150,000, ultimately proved more trouble than fun by depreciating much faster than he anticipated.

“The maintenance costs also piled up, diminishing the overall value,” he said. “I realized afterward that investing the same amount in rental properties or a mix of dividend-yielding stocks would have generated consistent income and appreciated over time.”

To Read More:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/4-purchases-financial-experts-regret-180011958.html