Get Ready for the Distressed Equity Bonanza

March 20, 2023  Simon Black, Founder  Sovereign Research & Advisory

This isn’t over yet.  Last week after Silicon Valley Bank went poof in a matter of hours, I wrote that this financial catastrophe is just getting started:

“Like Lehman Brothers in 2008, SVB is just the tip of the iceberg. . .”

Within days, several other banks were on the verge of collapse. And now today, of course, major banks in the United States (including JP Morgan) are rallying to save the troubled First Republic Bank. 

Silicon Valley Bank's Collapse Proves The US Is In Obvious Decline

March 17, 2023  Simon Black, Founder  Sovereign Research & Advisory

Throughout history, whenever there has been a major shift in the world, it has usually been accompanied by a single iconic event that is associated with that change.  For example, historians often point to 476 AD as the year that the Western Roman Empire fell, when Odoacer and his barbarians forced the abdication of the Emperor Romulus Augustus— even though it was obvious that Rome was in decline way before 476.

People also often associate the start of the Great Depression with the stock market crash of 1929 (even though there were many signs of economic distress well in advance of that).

The Federal Reserve Just Hijacked American Democracy

March 16, 2023 Simon Black, Founder  Sovereign Research & Advisory  

You know the old joke-- “Predictions are hard… especially about the future.” And it’s true, nobody has a crystal ball.  But it’s astonishing to see just how horribly wrong the people in charge can be in their predictions, especially about the very near future.

You probably remember Joe Biden famously insisted in the summer of 2021 that the Taliban was “highly unlikely” to take over Afghanistan.  

If SVB Is Insolvent, So Is Everyone Else

Simon Black  March 13, 2023

On Sunday afternoon, September 14, 2008, hundreds of employees of the financial giant Lehman Brothers walked into the bank’s headquarters at 745 Seventh Avenue in New York City to clear out their offices and desks.  Lehman was hours away from declaring bankruptcy. And its collapse the next day triggered the worst economic and financial devastation since the Great Depression.

The S&P 500 fell by roughly 50%. Unemployment soared. And more than 100 other banks failed over the subsequent 12 months. It was a total disaster.

How Crazy Is This? No One Wants To Own the World’s Best Performing Industry

March 1, 2023  Simon Black, Founder  Sovereign Research & Advisory

Benny Grossbaum was the embodiment of the American Dream.

Born in London in 1894 during the reign of Queen Victoria, Benny and his family moved to New York City (through Ellis Island) when he was still a baby.

At first the family was well off; his father ran a successful business, and they lived in a posh brownstone on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan.

Biden Aims To Shatter Record For Fastest Tax Increase

February 27, 2023  Simon Black, Founder  Sovereign Research & Advisory

In 1969 while testifying to Congress, US Secretary of the Treasury Joseph Barr called out 155 Americans who were not paying their “fair share” of taxes.

Those 155 Americans had managed to reduce their federal tax liability to essentially zero by using perfectly legal deductions and credits in the tax code.

America Is About To Go Supernova

Simon Black, Founder  Sovereign Research & Advisory  February 20, 2023

On the evening of April 17, 1006 AD, a little more than 1,000 years ago, human beings from around the world looked up into the night sky and saw a brilliant light, the likes of which they had never before seen in their entire lives.  Most people thought it was a new star-- the brightest, by far, that anyone had ever observed. Some thought it was an omen or a sign from the gods.

We know now that neither was the case. The phenomenon that everyone saw that evening was actually a supernova originating more than 7,000 light years away from Earth. And scientists now refer to it as “SN 1006”, named after the year of its observation.    

A Balanced Budget is Now “Irresponsible” 

February 7, 2023  Simon Black  Sovereign Research & Advisory

“Irresponsible.”

That’s the word that some politicians in the United States Congress have been using this week to describe their opponents’ demands to balance the federal budget.

Just imagine what that says about the state of US public finances: that even the mere thought of having a balanced budget... of living within your means... is “irresponsible”.

The Eight-State Suicide Pact Is Advancing Quickly...

January 30, 2023  By Simon Black

By the early 300s AD, ancient Rome’s population was in significant decline.  Modern historians haven’t nailed down a precise number for Rome’s population— and estimates vary— but the clear consensus is that population peaked in the first or second century AD, and then began a rapid fall.

We know the reasons why. Roman citizens were sick and tired of the corruption, inflation, taxes, crime, social decline, constant chaos, etc. and they sought greener pastures elsewhere.