Even Warren Buffett’s Legendary Optimism Is Fading

Even Warren Buffett’s Legendary Optimism Is Fading..

Notes From the Field By Simon Black/James Hickman February 26, 2024

[Important Reminder: In case you missed our announcement from January 24, Sovereign Man has merged with Peter Schiff's media group. We are now called Schiff Sovereign, and our founder (Simon Black) has dropped the pen name and is now writing under his real name, James Hickman.]

Early in the spring of 1956, only weeks after Elvis Presley released his debut studio album, and actress Norma Jean Mortenson had her name legally changed to Marilyn Monroe, a budding 25-year-old businessman from the American Midwest fatefully registered his first-ever company.

His name, of course, was Warren Buffett. And the company he founded was called Buffett Associates-- which was formed with $105,000 of capital from his friends and family.

The US economy at the time was absolutely booming. Interest rates in 1956 were at historic lows. Inflation was practically zero. Economic growth was a dizzying 7%. Productivity growth was strong.

The US was no longer at war. And the national debt-- which had reached a peak of 120% of GDP in the 1940s due to the costs of World War II-- had been cut in half… and was falling further each year.

America was proudly capitalist, and the government actually made sound and effective investments, like the US federal highway system. Businesses reaped the benefits: corporate earnings across the S&P 500 index soared.

Yet, at the time when Buffett formed his business in 1956, stocks were still cheap… trading at less than 12x earnings (versus nearly 30x today).

It’s hard to imagine better economic or market conditions: a high growth, capitalist economy with low inflation, low debt, high productivity, and cheap stocks? Buffett could have hardly picked a better time to get started.

And, although there were plenty of ups and downs along the way, those pristine conditions lasted throughout the first several decades of his career.

Buffett is obviously one of the most talented investors to have ever lived, and he surrounded himself with other incredibly talented people.

But (and he would probably be the first to admit) his success would not have been as great without the power and dynamism of the US economy behind him.

And this is why Warren Buffett has long been one of America’s biggest economic cheerleaders.

Over the past 15+ years, Buffett has had an insider’s view of some very concerning trends. The US national debt has been rising out of control. The Federal Reserve has made a mess of the dollar. Woke fanatics have hijacked capitalism.

Yet through it all, Buffett has maintained a calm, persistent optimism in America; he routinely dismisses concerns over the debt, or the dollar, or the future of the US economy, and has seemed to believe that nothing could ever derail American progress.

But as I read through his annual letter this past weekend, it seems that even Buffett’s legendary optimism is starting to crack.

First, it’s clear that even Buffett thinks that government regulation has gone way too far.

Buffett explains, for example, that utility companies were “once regarded as among the most stable industries in America” because of their consistent profitability.

Yet he laments that the utility companies he acquired were a “severe earnings disappointment” in 2023 due to over-regulation from fanatical politicians.

Buffet complains that “the regulatory climate in a few states has raised the specter of zero profitability or even bankruptcy (an actual outcome at California’s largest utility and a current threat in Hawaii).”

“In such jurisdictions,” he writes, “it is difficult to project both earnings and asset values in what was once regarded as among the most stable industries in America.”

In the end, he tells shareholders that he “did not anticipate or even consider the adverse developments in regulatory [changes] and . . . made a costly mistake in not doing so.”

He goes on to talk about America’s dilapidated infrastructure, which is in critical need of maintenance and reinvestment. And Buffett cites the case of BNSF Railway (the largest freight rail in the US) which he acquired in 2009.

BNSF, he explains, has had to spend tens of billions of dollars to fix up its rail network “simply [to] maintain its present level of business. This reality is bad for owners. . .”

But it’s not just BNSF. And it’s not just railways. Almost ALL infrastructure in the US is in serious need of repair.

Obviously, the US government made a halfhearted attempted to address infrastructure challenges when it passed a $1 trillion investment package in 2021. But “the consequent capital expenditure” that’s truly required to fix it, Buffett writes, “will be staggering.”

One final point worth mentioning is Buffett’s comments on size. Again, when he started his first partnership in 1956, he only had $105k to invest, and he could move nimbly in and out of the market.

Today, Buffett’s company has almost $170 billion in cash, which is virtually impossible to manage efficiently. He writes that it’s “like turning a battleship”, and that the days of being quick and nimble “are long behind us; size did us in...”

Buffett, of course, is talking about his own company (Berkshire Hathaway). But the same could just as easily be said for the US government.

Think about it-- if someone of Buffett’s extraordinary talent admits that he cannot efficiently deploy $170 billion, how are Joe Biden or Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg supposed to be able to invest that $1 trillion infrastructure money?

Quite poorly, I’d imagine.

Buffett does acknowledge that “America has been a terrific country for investors.” And he’s absolutely right. It still is, for the most part.

Nvidia is an easy example: it simply would not have been able to achieve the same level of success had it been based in most other countries. If Nvidia were a Chinese company, for example, it would have been taken over by the CCP long ago, and CEO Jensen Huang would have probably been disappeared.

But one of the most important caveats of investing applies to the US economy as well: “past performance does not guarantee future results.”

Warren Buffett enjoyed some of the most pristine economic conditions imaginable for the vast majority of his nearly 70-year career. And as I have written several times, it is absolutely possible that America’s best days are still ahead.

There is clearly a future scenario in which small-scale nuclear reactors generate clean, low-carbon, ultra-cheap energy which powers highly productive AI and robotic automation. Economic growth is off the charts, and tax revenue soars as a result. The national debt eventually melts away, and the US re-establishes its primacy by out-producing and out-innovating the competition.

But at the moment there are serious issues to contend with.

US productivity is anemic. So is economic growth. War, inflation, cyberattacks, border crisis, social conflict, the rise of adversary nations, decline of the US dollar’s dominance, etc. are all pervasive challenges.

(Not to mention potential near-term consequences-- like the impact of Russia, China, North Korea, and terrorist groups sending so many of their operatives across the southern border.)

The government not only isn’t fixing these problems, but they seem to be making them worse by the day.  So, it’s important to take notice when even someone as optimistic as Buffett starts complaining.

To your freedom,  James Hickman  Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/even-warren-buffetts-legendary-optimism-is-fading-150201/

Why The ‘Netflix’ Stock Of 100 Years Ago Fell By 98%

Why The ‘Netflix’ Stock Of 100 Years Ago Fell By 98%

Notes From the Field By Simon Black / James Hickman  February 21, 2024

[Important Reminder: In case you missed our announcement from January 24, Sovereign Man has merged with Peter Schiff's media group. We are now called Schiff Sovereign, and our founder (Simon Black) has dropped the pen name and is now writing under his real name, James Hickman.]

On January 16, 1917-- at the peak of World War I, the imperial German Foreign Minister, Arthur Zimmerman, sent an encoded telegram destined for the President of Mexico.

Zimmerman wanted to form an alliance with Mexico, in the hopes that the United States would be too distracted with potential conflict at their southern border to even think about joining the war in Europe.

So, in his effort to strike a deal, Zimmerman promised not only a military alliance, but to help Mexico “reconquer her lost territories of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona.”

Unfortunately for the German Empire, Zimmerman’s secret cable was intercepted and decoded by a British cryptography team; it was then shared with US President Woodrow Wilson, who released it to the newspapers on March 1st.

Americans were outraged, and five weeks later, the US joined the war… with the entire nation singularly focused on one goal: beating Germany.

The United States economy answered the call with remarkable vigor.

American businesses cranked out tanks, bullets, airplanes, fuel, provisions, and anything else needed for total victory. And as a result, companies which were vital to the war effort shot up in value.

The profits of the United States Steel Corporation, for example, more than quadrupled from 1915-1917, and the company became one of the first in history to be worth $1 billion.

Other companies, including Anaconda Copper, and various food and energy producers, also performed extremely well.

But eventually the war ended, and the roaring 20s began. The economy was flush with cash. Jobs were plentiful. Prosperity was everywhere.

And eventually the values of hard work and sacrifice were displaced by a culture of leisure and recreation.

These new values were reflected in the stock market.

Radio and motion picture were the hot new consumer technologies of that era. And the Radio Corporation of America-- RCA-- manufactured the radios and phonographs, produced music and records, owned broadcast stations (including the original NBC), and even bought movie theaters.

RCA was basically the Netflix and Apple of its day. And during the 1920s, RCA stock rose 200x… which was really a sign of the times. This was an era of peace and prosperity, so Americans prioritized consumption and recreation over production. And RCA was the ultimate consumer recreation stock.

But then the Great Depression set in at the end of the decade; RCA stock dropped 98% from a peak of $114.75 in 1929 to $2.62 in 1932.

Suddenly, American values had changed again. Money was no longer plentiful, and people had to make tough decisions about what to buy.

Hard work and sacrifice were back in vogue, and spending money on leisure and recreation seemed absolutely insane.

Once again, this shift in values was reflected in the stock market.

Recreation-oriented companies were out, while ‘boring’ companies like Proctor & Gamble-- which efficiently manufactured the most critical consumer staples-- became the best performers of the era.

Energy companies also did very well, because, when push comes to shove and consumers have to make decisions about where to allocate scarce resources, energy (along with food) almost invariably ranks towards the top.

This cycle has repeated again and again throughout history. During boom times, the world’s most critical resources like food, energy, and raw materials often become forgotten investments. Meanwhile, investors chase hot fads which are usually oriented towards consumer leisure and recreation.

We’ve seen this in our own recent history.

Netflix is a great example; it’s often (hilariously) referred to as a technology company. But Netflix is obviously in the recreation business.

So is Facebook (Meta) for that matter, whose products really just enable people to waste time by swiping and scrolling through endless butt selfies.

Apple designs the devices which people use to swipe and scroll. Amazon makes it super easy for people to spend money on stuff they don’t really need.

You get the idea. These are ultimately consumer recreation businesses... and there’s nothing wrong with that. But it is worth noting that the most valuable companies in the world are predominantly in this consumer recreation sector.

That’s because most of the last 15 years has been an era of abundance, similar to the Roaring 20s. And with so much boundless prosperity, consumer recreation once again became a major financial priority, whereas something as banal as energy production simply fell off the list of core economic values.

Think about it: we constantly hear famous economists praise the “American Consumer”. No one ever talks about the American Producer. And certainly not the American Energy Producer.

But values can and do shift very quickly. Just look at Pfizer.

As recently as 2019, Big Pharma had been among the most hated sectors in the world due to sky-high drug prices. But then the pandemic came along, and suddenly everyone started exuberantly supporting Big Pharma.

Priorities shifted. And Pfizer became one of the world’s most valuable companies.

I believe that priorities are on track to shift again, given how the US government’s massive debt problems will likely lead to sustained inflation within the next 5-7 years (if not sooner).

And as financial values and priorities shift, critical resources should take precedence over consumer recreation once again.

This doesn’t mean that consumer businesses will go bust. However, the sky-high valuations that we’ve seen (like 50x Price/Earnings ratios) for recreation-oriented businesses will not last.

Conversely, critical resource businesses will likely surge in value.

These are companies which have been mostly ignored (or even deliberately injured) ... which means that many such businesses are selling for historically low valuations.

But over the next several years as priorities shift again, they could easily become the ‘must own’, best performing companies in the world.

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/why-the-netflix-stock-of-100-years-ago-fell-by-98-150163/

7 Signs You’re Financially Healthy

7 Signs You’re Financially Healthy

Even If You Don't Feel Like It — How Many Do You Have?

Lou Carlozo   Wed, February 21, 2024

January was Financial Wellness Month, but it's possible many people still began February believing that in some way — perhaps many ways — they must be mishandling their income, investments and spending.

Though we may feel literally poor about our financial standing, taking a courageous closer look may show us a much different reality.

In one of his videos, YouTuber and former financial advisor Humphrey Yang’s identifies seven signs that you’re actually doing well with your money, emotions or beliefs to the contrary.

With over 275,000 views to date, the clip isn’t set up as a pass-fail test or a prelude to a guilt trip. “... if they don’t apply to you, we can talk about how you can quickly achieve financial wellbeing,” he says.

1. You don’t try to signal your wealth

Using big ticket items to flaunt how much you’ve got is “a zero sum game” of winners and losers, he says. “If you’re buying a Lamborghini, you’re probably just trying to show to outsiders that you’re successful enough to buy a $300,000 car.” Yang says instead of borrowing large sums to buy expensive things and elevate your social status, you should be seeking freedom and peace of mind through building wealth, which he says is a "positive sum game" where everybody can win.

2. You have an emergency fund of at least $2,000

You're on the right track if you have a $2,000 rainy day fund you can tap. The truth is that unexpected bills will pop up. Yang cites a Bankrate article saying 57% percent of Americans can’t afford a $1,000 emergency expense. Having at least double that in a high-yield savings account will mean you're ahead of most Americans, and he adds that it’s ideal to shoot for a cushion worth three to six months of expenses.

3. You’re able to meet your spending and savings targets

Yang sees this as evidence that you have defined financial goals and a budget or a way to track your expenses. He says if you’re making $75,000 annually and spending $60,000, then you should be “making a plan for that extra $15K." You should also be reviewing expenses to identify areas to cut back and identifying ways to earn more income.

To continue reading, please go to the original article here:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/7-signs-financially-healthy-even-113600089.html

Aiming for Less

Aiming for Less

Richard Quinn  |  Jan 5, 2024 Humble Dollar

WHAT DOES IT MEAN to “live within your means”? To answer the question, we first need to define “means.”

If your gross income is $60,000, that income isn’t your means. For starters, you need to subtract income and payroll taxes. To live within your means, you need to spend no more than your net income—income after taxes and other withholdings.

I’ll go further and suggest that your true means are your income net of monthly savings for retirement and financial emergencies. Some people do even better. They live below their means, meaning they save extra—denying themselves spending that many others happily embrace.

Living below your means isn’t about deprivation or sacrificing all enjoyment. Rather, it’s about making a conscious decision to prioritize financial security. If you’re already saving enough to meet long-term and short-term goals, living far below your means strikes me as unnecessary, even punitive. I’m not a fan of super-frugality.

Living prudently is about managing your finances responsibly and making choices that align with your income. The key words here are “align with your income.” Living within your means is easier as your income rises, and yet many higher-income folks fail to do so.

Where you live is a factor, too. I live in the third highest income-tax state, one that also has the nation’s highest property taxes. The average property tax in our town is $17,206, and our bill is $13,600. One result: Our monthly fixed costs are $4,193.

These expenses include property taxes, homeowners’ association fees, and all insurance and utility bills. They don’t include the cost of groceries, gasoline, clothing, personal care services, gifts, eating out or car maintenance. It also doesn’t include any expenses related to our vacation home.

While some say they live comfortably in retirement on $50,000 a year, it costs us much more. We live comfortably, not luxuriously, but where we live makes a big difference in what it takes to do that. In other words, how much a person spends isn’t, by itself, an accurate indicator of frugality or prudent spending. Still, we manage to live below our means. One sign: We’re retired, and yet we still save each month.

Living within your means is easy. Let me rephrase that: It should be easy, but for many people, it isn’t. They falter in the face of all the pressure and encouragement to spend.

Some people will say that tracking your income and expenses is essential. Typical advice includes creating a budget to identify areas where you can cut back. I disagree. I contend the real problem isn’t a lack of knowledge about spending. Rather, it’s a lack of discipline, an inability to stay focused on financial goals and a propensity to rationalize spending.

My advice is to avoid impulse purchases. Don’t succumb to the temptation to buy things you don’t need or can’t afford. Give yourself time to think before making purchases.

To continue reading, please go to the original article here:

https://humbledollar.com/2024/01/aiming-for-less/

Outsmarting Pickpockets and Thieves

Outsmarting Pickpockets and Thieves

By Rick Steves 

A money belt tucked underneath your clothes keeps your essentials on you as securely and thoughtlessly as your underweaCrowded transit lines that cover tourist sights are happy hunting grounds for pickpockets — stay in physical contact with your bags.

While Europe has little violent crime, it does have its share of petty purse snatching, pickpocketing, phone grabbing, and general ripping off of tourists — especially in places where tourists gather. Thieves target vacationers — not because they're mean, but because they're smart. Travelers have all the good stuff in their bags and wallets. Loaded down with valuables, jetlagged, and bumbling around in a strange new environment, we stick out like jeweled thumbs. If I were a European street thief, I'd specialize in Americans — my card would say "Yanks R Us."

If you're not constantly on guard, you'll have something stolen. One summer, four out of five of my traveling companions lost cameras in one way or another. (Don't look at me.) But in more than 4,800 days of travel, I've been pickpocketed only once (on the Paris Métro, on a rare day I didn't wear my money belt) and mugged a single time (in a part of London where only fools and thieves tread).

My various rental cars have been broken into a total of six times (broken locks, shattered windows, lots of nonessential stuff taken), and one car was hot-wired (and abandoned a few blocks away after the thief found nothing to take). Not one of my hotel rooms has ever been rifled through, and I simply don't let thoughts of petty crime — or the rare instance of it — spoil the fun of being abroad.

Many tourists get indignant when pickpocketed or ripped off. If it happens to you, it's best to get over it quickly. You're rich and thieves aren't. You let your guard down and they grabbed your camera. It ruins your day and you have to buy a new one, while they sell it for a week's wages on their scale. It's wise to keep a material loss in perspective.

There probably aren't more thieves in Europe than in the US. We just notice them more because they target tourists. But remember, nearly all crimes suffered by tourists are nonviolent and avoidable. Be aware of the possible pitfalls of traveling, but relax and have fun. Limit your vulnerability rather than your travels.

If you exercise adequate discretion, stay aware of your belongings, and avoid putting yourself into risky situations (such as unlit, deserted areas at night), your travels should be about as dangerous as hometown grocery shopping. Don't travel fearfully — travel carefully.

Here's some advice given to me by a thief who won the lotto.

Be prepared. Before you go, take steps to minimize your loss in case of theft. Make copies of key documents, and store them online. Consider getting theft insurance for expensive electronics. Leave your fancy bling at home. Luxurious luggage lures thieves. The thief chooses the most impressive suitcase in the pile — never mine.

Mobile payment technology reduces the need to handle your cards or cash; if you have a payment app such as Apple Pay, Google Pay, or PayPal on your phone, become familiar with it before your trip.

If your phone disappears, you're out not just the cost of the device — but also the photos and personal data stored on it. It's smart to take extra precautions before your trip: Make sure you've got a "find my phone"-type app, back up your data, and enable password protection. While traveling, use the Wi-Fi at your hotel to back up your phone and its photos each night. If you don't know how to sync your stuff to the cloud, learn before your trip.

Wear a money belt. A money belt is a small, zippered fabric pouch on an elastic strap that fastens around your waist. I almost never travel without one — it's where I put anything I really, really don't want to lose.

To continue reading, please go to the original article here:

https://www.ricksteves.com/travel-tips/theft-scams/outsmarting-pickpockets

The 5 Levels of Wealth and How To Get There

The 5 Levels of Wealth and How To Get There

January 27, 2024 By Sheiresa McRae Ngo, AI Editor

If building wealth is one of your goals this year, you’re not alone. Roughly 48% of Americans are making financial resolutions for 2024 according to a study by Allianz Life Insurance Company. This is up from 43% last year.

Certified financial planners Brian Preston and Bo Hanson, hosts of The Money Guy Show, discussed how to reach the five levels of wealth. Here’s what they revealed about each wealth level and how to get there. 

Level 1: Stability

of their show, Hanson and Preston explain that financial stability signifies the ability to pay your bills without living paycheck to paycheck. This level is not solely about income, as even high earners can struggle to achieve stability. It’s about adopting a mindset of deferred gratification and discipline in spending.

Key aspects of stability include eliminating bad debts, following a budget, and understanding the importance of saving. To assess if you’re at this stage, check if you are not relying on services like “buy now, pay later,” have an emergency fund, and are not carrying a credit card balance.

Level 2: Strategy

Moving up the wealth pyramid, the next stage is strategy. Here, you’re no longer just surviving; you’re beginning to make your money work for you. This level involves controlling your paycheck rather than letting it control you. It’s about having a financial plan and executing it, not just dreaming.

Investing for Everyone

Strategy is also about educating yourself financially and avoiding the trap of chasing the latest investment fads. To transition to this stage, focus on increasing your income, managing major expenses wisely, and ensuring your spending aligns with your financial goals.

Level 3: Security

To continue reading, please go to the original article here: LINK

https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/financial-planning/the-5-levels-of-wealth-and-how-to-get-there/?utm_term=related_link_1&utm_campaign=1261535&utm_source=yahoo.com&utm_content=2&utm_medium=rss

8 Ways You Can Go From Broke to Rich in 2024

8 Ways You Can Go From Broke to Rich in 2024

Cindy Lamothe   Thu, February 15, 2024

Trying to get to a place of financial stability when you’re broke can feel like an uphill battle. But according to experts, you shouldn’t give up hope. With the right mindset and strategies, you can dig yourself out of financial struggle and significantly grow your wealth this year.

Here are some ways you can get ahead in 2024.

Identify Your Limitations

“In my experience as a finance expert, I have gathered that there are two major reasons individuals are broke and living paycheck to paycheck,” said Mafe Aclado, general manager of Coupon Snake.

“It is either they are not earning enough, or are like so many others who bring home a pretty decent income, but neglect to budget their expenses,” she explained.

“Without first identifying why you are broke and why you always blow through your earnings before the next paycheck arrives, it would be next to impossible to make any significant strides in your finances, much less go from broke to rich in 2024.”

She said finding out what aspect of your finances, or spending habits is limiting and hindering your financial growth, is the first step toward going from broke to rich this year.

That said, she noted that one way to tremendously improve your finances this year is to become dedicated and ready to put in the hard work that is required.

“You would just have to realize and be ready to make the necessary changes both in your spending and saving habits,” she added. “You would also have to be realistic and adopt a growth mentality because your money mindset is crucial to how much financial success you are able to achieve within one year.”

Start Investing Wisely

“I would say one of the best, and perhaps only, ways to go from broke to rich in a single year would be through making lucky picks when it comes to investments,” said David Kemmerer, CEO of CoinLedger.

“I have seen some of these types of results from crypto investments, but these do tend to be riskier and you should never be investing money you can’t afford to lose,” he noted.

“However, if you’re looking to accrue wealth and improve your financial situation through passive income, I would highly recommend investments as one way to grow your money and escape the paycheck-to-paycheck cycle in 2024.”

Ethan Keller, president of Dominion, also recommended you start investing as soon as possible to take advantage of the compounding growth.

“In order to reduce the amount of risk you are exposed to, you should diversify your portfolio and investigate low-cost investment options such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and index funds.”

Live Frugally

“Make the decision to live a frugal lifestyle and fight the urge to spend more than you can afford,” Keller said.

By living below your means, he said you’ll be able to save and invest more money, which ultimately speeds up the process of reaching your goal of becoming financially successful.

Begin Networking

To continue reading, please go to the original article here:

https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/wealth/ways-you-can-go-from-broke-to-rich-this-year/?utm_term=incontent_link_8&utm_campaign=1261535&utm_source=yahoo.com&utm_content=14&utm_medium=rss

Who Are You After Financial Independence? Thursday 2-15-24

Who Are You After Financial Independence? Thursday 2-15-24

Financial Independence, FIRE, Money and Life   By   Vicki Robin 

Your Identity Closet: What shall you wear now that you are free? 

In high school all three sororities asked me to join – three different flavors of girls to giggle and gossip with. I must have joined one because my actual memory isn’t of joining. It’s of dropping out in protest to some clique cruelty. When offered options A, B or C – I chose D. Life went on. I didn’t make a habit of rebellion. 

 In fact, I developed quite a High School resume of clubs, groups and honors. Yet I’d learned that you can step outside any box you want to – and survive. 

By my mid-20’s I’d built a serious smoking habit. Serious because I’d picked up a disaffected Galoise smoker identity when I lived in Europe, translated that to Pall Malls in the United States and was burning through a pack a day. It made me feel intellectual and complex. 

One day, at a beach house I’d rented, I smoked a cigarette, quashed it in the sand and headed off for a run along the water. I was soon wheezing and gasping for breath, came back and dropped down on the blanket where I’d left my pack of cigarettes. I looked at it squarely. 

In a short few minutes I saw the cost of smoking, decided I needed to stop and then spontaneously a voice said, I can’t quit smoking but I can become a non-smoker. And that was that. In the 50 years since I’ve visited a few cigarettes for old time sake but have not become a smoker again. 

The Diagnosis 

Fast forward many decades of choosing many roads less traveled. I’m 58 and my doctor has just told me I have cancer. Actually he told me I had an apple core lesion in my colon, which sounded harmless, so he had to emphasize that what he meant was I had cancer. I would need surgery. Still nonplussed I said, “While you’re in there, can you do some liposuction.” 

People with a diagnosis of cancer know what comes next. You start to become an expert in a topic you never wanted to deal with. I read all the literature. About treatments and options and odds. 

For me another logical next step was to call a friend and medical intuitive as I know cancer has meanings, not just symptoms. I told him the diagnosis. He went silent for several minutes, scanning my body at a distance, then said, “You don’t have cancer.” 

I explained that I certainly did and he explained that his inner eye saw no signature of cancer anywhere in my body. I had A cancer, but I did not have cancer. 

This distinction, that I had not taken on the mantle of cancer but simply had a cancer that my otherwise vigorous body could deal with, liberated me to choose freely how I would go through this challenge. 

Frugality Was How I Lived, Not Who I Was 

My next stop was a coach friend who offered to listen to me talk about this cancer to find a vigorous place in my mind as well. I talked – and he listened – for hours. I realized that I had become trapped in an identity that was constraining me but I felt obliged to keep. 

 As the main spokesperson for Your Money or Your Life – and as a warrior trying to address over consumption one reader at a time – I’d assumed an identity of happy frugality. Don’t get me wrong. I was happily frugal for years, but it was how I lived, not who I was. 

When I became one of the guiding lights of the simplicity movement in the 1990s, though, I kept myself pegged at a level of expenses and a set of possessions and a repetitive story to reach our target: millions of people influenced, tons of unnecessary consumption prevented. 

I had a further dilemma. I’d become a role model. “Vicki Robin” meant something to a lot of people. If I changed, they’d lose a point on their compass. 

It was clear. I needed to quit being the me others thought I was in order to free myself to address this cancer. I mentally made a plaster cast of me, the Vicki others presumed I was, and then slit open the belly to let my soul free. I saw 3 Rastafarians with dreads wearing green tights dance out of that opening! 

 To continue reading, please go to the original article here: Lengthy but informative

https://yourmoneyoryourlife.com/after-financial-independence/

7 Smart Steps For Managing Sudden Wealth

7 Smart Steps For Managing Sudden Wealth

SmartAsset Team   Tue, February 13, 2024

A substantial boost in your personal wealth can happen overnight. You can win the lottery, inherit an estate or profit from a business sale. Many people aren’t prepared for a sudden windfall, making it difficult to know which steps can protect that money and grow it long-term to last a lifetime. If this sounds like you, you may want to talk to a financial advisor. But here are seven steps to manage sudden wealth.

1. Create Long-Term Goals

Long-term financial goals provide a clear roadmap for managing sudden wealth by offering guidance and focus. When individuals come into a significant amount of money, there may be a temptation to make impulsive decisions or engage in extravagant spending. Establishing long-term financial goals helps to channel this windfall into a structured plan, ensuring that the wealth is used strategically and in alignment with broader financial objectives.

Sudden wealth can also bring increased financial risks, including investment pitfalls, tax implications and potential scams. In this sense, long-term financial goals can act as a risk mitigation strategy by promoting a diversified and balanced approach to wealth management. And in doing so, you could adopt a cautious and well-researched approach, safeguarding your newfound wealth from unnecessary risks.

Finally, long-term financial goals can also help you preserve wealth. By focusing on the bigger picture, you can prioritize building a lasting financial foundation. This can involve strategies such as investing in a diversified portfolio, creating an emergency fund and planning for retirement.

2. Find Professional Help

Hiring a financial advisor or wealth management expert can provide you with essential knowledge and experience that is necessary to effectively manage sudden wealth. Professionals are well-versed in various financial strategies, investment opportunities and risk management techniques. Therefore, they can help you create a personalized and comprehensive financial plan for your specific needs, objectives and risk tolerance.

There are different types of professionals who can assist in managing sudden wealth, including financial advisors, tax specialists and estate planning attorneys.

Financial advisors play an important role in planning your financial future by devising prudent investment and spending strategies that can align with your specific needs. Tax specialists, on the other hand, will help you make tax-efficient decisions and potentially avoid significant tax burdens.

3. Create a Realistic Spending Plan

Creating a spending plan can help make your sudden wealth last.

A spending plan can help you outline anticipated income and expenses. By gaining a clear understanding of your finances, you can position yourself to budget and control expenses, prevent overspending and avoid impulsive purchases that can easily eat into your sudden wealth.

One common spending plan to consider is the 50/30/20 budget rule. This strategy allocates 50% of income to necessities, 30% to discretionary expenses and 20% to savings and investments.

4. Build an Investment Plan

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/7-smart-steps-managing-sudden-154648038.html

Gen Zers Report Having Fallen For Scams More Than Any Other Generation

Gen Zers Report Having Fallen For Scams More Than Any Other Generation

Americans think their older loved ones are more vulnerable to scammers–but Gen Zers report having fallen for scams more than any other generation

Michael Steinbach  Fri, February 9, 2024

While fraudsters’ tactics have evolved throughout my career as head of financial crimes and fraud prevention at Citi and during the more than two decades I spent at the FBI, one thing has stayed the same: No one thinks they’re going to be scammed.

Most Americans overrate their abilities to avoid scams, according to a recent Citi survey. Some 90% of U.S. adults believe they’re able to spot financial scams–but more than a quarter (27%) report having fallen victim.

Today's scammers are nimble and aided by sophisticated tools. They often deal in volume, and it only takes one successful attempt to profit. Ultimately, all ages and demographics are at risk.

No One Is Immune

While Citi’s survey revealed that three in four Americans are concerned about an older loved one falling victim to a scam, the survey suggests digitally native generations are at risk, too. A third of Gen Z respondents report having been a victim of a financial scam–more than any other generation.

Whether Gen Zers are more vulnerable to scammers or more aware of the fact that they’ve been scammed is unclear. What is clear, though, is that fraudsters are getting better at targeting everyone, regardless of their digital fluency–so preparedness is crucial.

To achieve a happy, fraud-free new year, remain vigilant, listen to your instincts, and learn to spot red flags. While scammers are constantly updating their tactics, here are some ways they might try to sabotage your financial goals:

Claiming to be from your bank’s fraud department, asking you to move money to keep it safe from fraudsters. Never share your debit pin, one-time password, or login credentials verbally or through an email or text–even with someone claiming to be from your bank. Importantly, your bank will never ask you to move your money or initiate a transaction to “correct” a fraudulent one.

Pretending to be the delivery company behind your recent purchase and claiming, via email or text, that they can’t deliver your package. They want you to click the link so they can capture the personal and financial information you enter. Or the link could infect your device with harmful malware to steal your information. Remember: Don’t click any links they send. Instead, verify with the shipment company’s website.

Taking advantage of your decision to use public Wi-Fi. Using a public network makes you more vulnerable to hackers, who can more easily access the personal information you share online. Use a private Wi-Fi network.

Protecting yourself from scammers

While scams are rampant, the good news is that everyone can take steps to minimize their risk. First, look to trusted sources to arm yourself with information. When asked about the resources they trust most for scam prevention information, 55% of Americans cited their bank among their top three, along with taking advice from friends and family (44%) and listening to their instincts by drawing on their own past experiences (41%).

There are simple steps you can take to shore up your digital defenses:

Enable face or fingerprint logins on your smartphone and banking apps. These can prevent scammers from gaining access should they get ahold of your devices.

 To continue reading, please go to the original article here:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/americans-think-older-loved-ones-163358786.html

It’s Not A Prediction. It’s Arithmetic.

It’s Not A Prediction. It’s Arithmetic. 

Notes From the Field BY Simon Black (James Hickman)  February 7, 2024

[Important Reminder: In case you missed our announcement from January 24, Sovereign Man has merged with Peter Schiff's media group. We are now called Schiff Sovereign, and our founder (Simon Black) has dropped the pen name and is now writing under his real name, James Hickman.]

Thousands of years ago during the late Bronze Age-- most likely between 1100 and 1200 BC, two ancient civilizations were exhausted after nearly a decade of warfare.

On one side was the ancient Achaean peoples led by the Mycenaean king Agamemnon. On the other was a legendary Hittite city that had already been in existence for more than 2,000 years.

Back then the city was called Wilusa. Today we know it as Troy.

The general consensus among historians today is that, most likely, the war did take place. But it obviously lacked the drama and intrigue of Homer’s epic tale, the Iliad.

We all know the story: after nine grueling years of war, Odysseus hatched a plan to sneak through the impenetrable gates of Troy. Guided by Athena, the goddess of wisdom and warfare, the Greeks built a hollow statue of a horse and hid their soldiers inside.

The horse was left as a gift for the Trojans with an inscription of goodwill and peace. And, according to Homer’s legend, the Trojans took the bait.

But there were a few people who predicted severe consequences, including a Trojan priest named Laocoon, who famously warned, “Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes.”

Translation: “Beware of Greeks bearing gifts.”

This was a time in human history in which oracles and prophets were a normal part of life. People in the ancient world regularly sought counsel from ‘seers’ who claimed to have some special power to predict the future.

And frankly this addiction to prophesy lasted for thousands of years. Even famous historical leaders into the 19th and 20th centuries like Napoleon, Joseph Stalin, and Adolf Hitler reportedly took advice from fortune tellers and astrologers.

But if we really analyze Laocoon’s legendary warning about the Trojan Horse, he wasn’t making a prediction about the future. He was just looking at obvious facts and exercising good judgment and common sense.

That’s what good ‘predictions’ are anyhow. No one has a crystal ball to see the future like some prophetic oracle from ancient mythology.

And I wanted to be clear about this point… because when we write about future financial consequences, like a debt crisis down the road, or the US dollar losing its reserve status, etc., we’re not making ‘predictions’.

Rather, we’re looking at obvious facts and trends, then exercising good judgment and common sense. And the facts are very clear.

We don’t peer into a crystal ball when we say that the US national debt is set to increase by $20 trillion over the next decade. This is publicly available information pulled directly from the Congressional Budget Office’s own forecast.

It’s not some magical prophesy when we say that Social Security’s trust funds will run out of money in a decade. This information comes directly from the official report of the Social Security Board of Trustees.

Nor are we exercising any special powers when we say that the Federal Reserve is completely insolvent. We’re just looking at the Fed’s own quarterly financial statements which show an unbelievable $1.3 TRILLION in unrealized losses.

You get the idea. There’s nothing mystical about the ‘predictions’ we’re making; we’re simply citing official reports and connecting the dots that almost everyone in the ‘expert class’ chooses to ignore.

Sure, we think that an insolvent Federal Reserve, plus $20 trillion in new debt, plus Social Security’s bankruptcy, will probably have consequences. But we’re also careful to acknowledge where we might be wrong.

I’ve written several times that the US government still has a very narrow window of opportunity to get its house in order. Sadly, they are not taking advantage of that window.

It’s also possible that an AI-led economic boom could dramatically increase productivity and tax revenue in the US, similar to the Internet boom in the 1990s.

But given that there are so many prominent figures in both government and within the AI community itself, trying to restrain AI’s growth, I’m skeptical that an economic boom will happen in time to forestall the most severe consequences of America’s gargantuan debt.

This is why we feel that our analysis is on very solid ground. And that leads me to solutions.

There’s an old Danish proverb (frequently mis-attributed to Mark Twain) which translates as “Predictions are hard. Especially about the future.”

But sometimes they’re not. Or better yet, I’d say that predictions are hard… except when you’re not actually making predictions.

Again, we’re looking at clear and obvious facts.

Social Security, for example, states that the program will “become depleted and unable to pay scheduled benefits” within 10-12 years. That’s not a ‘prediction’. That’s arithmetic.

For rational, thinking people, however, this should not be a cause for panic. Instead, it should be a reason to take action and solve the problem on an individual basis… rather than wait for Inspired Idiots in the government to fix it.

And there are plenty of options. Setting up a more robust retirement structure like a solo 401(k), for instance, allows you to contribute a lot more money for retirement, plus it provides a wider range of investment options like real estate, crypto, and more.

And even if the Inspired Idiots miraculously come together to solve the Social Security problem, you won’t be worse off for having set aside more money for retirement.

Ditto for other risks we discuss.

Real assets, for example, generally tend to perform very well during inflationary periods. Yet many real asset producers are currently trading at historic lows.

There are highly profitable, debt-free, dividend-paying companies out there whose share prices are extremely cheap. And if the future inflation scenario we’ve outlined takes hold, those types of companies typically experience extreme gains.

But if we turn out to be wrong, it’s hard to imagine being worse off buying shares of a successful, dividend-paying business at historic lows.

This is a great way to think about a Plan B: consider solutions that make sense regardless of what happens (or doesn’t happen) next.

To your freedom,  James Hickman   Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

[Important Reminder: In case you missed our announcement from January 24, Sovereign Man has merged with Peter Schiff's media group. We are now called Schiff Sovereign, and our founder (Simon Black) has dropped the pen name and is now writing under his real name, James Hickman.]

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/its-not-a-prediction-its-arithmetic-150109/