Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Thursday Morning 3-12-26
Good Morning Dinar Recaps,
Burning Tankers, Rising Oil: Gulf Conflict Shakes Energy Markets and Global Financial Stability
Escalating attacks on oil infrastructure signal a dangerous shift toward economic warfare in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
Overview
The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has escalated into a broader energy and economic crisis centered on the Persian Gulf.
Good Morning Dinar Recaps,
Burning Tankers, Rising Oil: Gulf Conflict Shakes Energy Markets and Global Financial Stability
Escalating attacks on oil infrastructure signal a dangerous shift toward economic warfare in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
Overview
The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has escalated into a broader energy and economic crisis centered on the Persian Gulf.
Attacks on commercial shipping, rising oil prices, and threats to the Strait of Hormuz are now rippling through global markets. While political leaders claim progress on the battlefield, financial markets are signaling deep concern about potential energy supply disruptions and long-term instability.
Key Developments
1. Tanker Attacks Signal Shift to Economic Warfare
Two fuel tankers were reportedly set ablaze in Iraqi waters, with maritime security sources attributing the attack to Iranian explosive-laden boats targeting commercial shipping vessels.
At least three merchant ships were struck, leaving one crew member dead and several vessels on fire.
Analysts say the attacks represent a strategic shift away from military targets toward commercial energy infrastructure, signaling a deliberate attempt to destabilize global energy markets and disrupt maritime traffic through the Gulf.
2. Oil Prices Surge as Markets React to Supply Risk
Energy markets reacted quickly to the escalation.
After briefly retreating from earlier highs, oil prices surged back above $100 per barrel during Asian trading.
Iranian officials warned that continued instability could push prices as high as $200 per barrel, a level that would represent one of the most severe global energy shocks since the 1970s oil crises.
In response, the International Energy Agency recommended the largest coordinated strategic oil release in history, potentially reaching 400 million barrels from global reserves.
The United States alone plans to release approximately 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help stabilize markets.
Despite these efforts, traders remain skeptical that supply disruptions can be contained if attacks continue.
3. Threats to the World’s Most Critical Oil Chokepoint
The most alarming development is the potential disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most vital maritime corridors in the global energy system.
Roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply normally passes through this narrow channel.
Iranian officials claim the strait is now effectively under their control, and maritime security reports indicate possible naval mines deployed in the shipping route.
Western governments are now discussing naval escort missions for oil tankers, a proposal reportedly being examined by the Group of Seven nations.
Such operations could protect shipping but also raise the risk of direct military confrontation in the Gulf.
4. Regional Energy Infrastructure Under Attack
The conflict is also expanding beyond Iran’s borders and into other Gulf states.
Reported incidents include drone strikes on oil storage facilities in Salalah and attacks on fuel tanks in Muharraq.
Additional reports describe a container vessel strike near the United Arab Emirates and a drone attack injuring civilians in southern Kuwait.
These incidents suggest the conflict is widening across the Gulf region, increasing the risk that multiple countries could be drawn further into the crisis.
Why It Matters
The escalation highlights one of the most fragile structural points in the global economy: the concentration of energy supply routes in a few narrow maritime chokepoints.
Even limited attacks on tanker traffic or port infrastructure can trigger major volatility across energy markets, shipping insurance costs, supply chains, and global inflation.
This means the true frontline of the conflict may not be territorial control but the stability of the global energy system itself.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
Large energy shocks have historically triggered major shifts in currencies and monetary policy.
When oil prices surge dramatically:
• Global inflation pressures intensify
• Central banks face pressure to tighten monetary policy
• Energy-exporting nations gain geopolitical leverage
Energy disruptions can also accelerate the development of alternative payment systems, commodity-linked trade structures, and non-dollar settlement mechanisms, trends already emerging within several BRICS economies.
Implications for the Global Reset
Pillar 1: Energy and Commodity Power
• Control of energy supply routes increasingly determines geopolitical influence.
• Continued instability in the Strait of Hormuz could place oil once again at the center of global economic policy decisions.
Pillar 2: Market Instability and System Stress
• Major energy shocks often trigger cascading financial effects, including inflation spikes, currency volatility, and debt market instability.
• These pressures frequently expose structural weaknesses in the global financial system, conditions that historically precede periods of economic restructuring.
The longer the conflict persists, the more likely energy markets become a trigger point for wider financial disruption.
This is not simply a regional geopolitical conflict — it is a stress test for the global economic and financial architecture.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
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🌱 A Message to Our Currency Holders🌱
If you’ve been holding foreign currency for many years, you were not foolish.
You were not wrong to believe the global financial system would change.
What failed was not your patience — it was the information you were given.
For years, dates, rumors, and personalities replaced facts, structure, and proof. “This week” predictions created cycles of hope and disappointment that were never based on how currencies actually change.
That is not your failure.
Our mission here is different:
• No dates • No rates • No hype • No gurus
Instead, we focus on:
• Verifiable developments • Institutional evidence
• Global financial structure • Where countries actually sit in the process
Currency value changes only come after sovereignty, trade, banking, settlement systems, and fiscal coordination are in place. History and institutions confirm this sequence.
You will see silence. You will see denials. That is not delay — that is discipline.
Protect your identity. Organize your documents.
Verify everything.
Never hand your discernment to anyone who cannot show proof.
You deserve truth — not timelines.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News
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Thank you Dinar Recaps
Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Thursday Morning 3-12-26
Iran War Cost America $11.3 Billion In One Week
Money and Business Economy News - Follow-up The U.S. Department of Defense (the Pentagon) informed Congress that the first week of the war with Iran cost the United States $11.3 billion, according to a source quoted by the Associated Press.
Officials revealed the figure during a closed session with senators last Tuesday. It does not include the total cost of the war but was presented to lawmakers who had demanded more information about the conflict.
Iran War Cost America $11.3 Billion In One Week
Money and Business Economy News - Follow-up The U.S. Department of Defense (the Pentagon) informed Congress that the first week of the war with Iran cost the United States $11.3 billion, according to a source quoted by the Associated Press.
Officials revealed the figure during a closed session with senators last Tuesday. It does not include the total cost of the war but was presented to lawmakers who had demanded more information about the conflict.
US administration officials also informed lawmakers that $5.6 billion worth of munitions were used during the first two days of the raids.
More funding
Several congressional aides expect the White House to soon submit a request to Congress for additional war funding.
Some US officials said the demand could reach $50 billion, while others said that estimate seemed low.
Members of Congress, who may soon have to approve additional funding for the war, have expressed concern that the conflict will deplete U.S. military stockpiles at a time when the defense industry is already struggling to meet demand.
The US administration has not provided a general assessment of the cost of the conflict or a clear idea of its expected duration.
Democratic lawmakers demanded that administration officials testify publicly under oath about President Donald Trump’s war plans, including how long they might last and what his plans are regarding Iran once the fighting stops.
During a visit to Kentucky on Wednesday, the US president said, "We have won" the war, stressing that the United States will continue the fight to finish the job.
The New York Times was the first to report that the first week of the war – launched by the United States and Israel on February 28 – cost Washington $11.3 billion. https://www.economy-news.net/content.php?id=66655
Iran Warns Oil Could Reach $200 Amid Hormuz Tensions
2026-03-12 Shafaq News- Tehran Global oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel, the Iranian military warned on Thursday, as the war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other entered its 13th day.
In a statement, Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters —the command body coordinating the country’s armed forces— blamed Washington for destabilizing regional security, arguing that oil prices depend on stability in the Middle East.
Several governments have meanwhile begun releasing emergency reserves in an effort to calm markets. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that Washington will release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while Italy will contribute nine million barrels from its strategic stocks, according to a government source cited by Reuters.
French President Emmanuel Macron, in televised comments, also confirmed that France will release up to 14.5 million barrels from its reserves, following a recommendation by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for member states to inject a combined 400 million barrels into global markets.
The conflict that erupted on Feb. 28 following joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran continues to disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz —one of the world’s most critical oil corridors, through which roughly one-fifth of global crude shipments normally pass. Iranian military officials have previously warned that vessels seeking to cross the strait must obtain Tehran’s approval, with Zolfaghari vowing that Iran would not allow “even a single liter of oil” to pass through the waterway for the United States and its allies.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iran-warns-oil-could-reach-200-amid-Hormuz-tensions
Read more: Hormuz lockdown: Iraq’s economic lifeline under threat
Tanker Hit Near Basra Carried Gas Condensate, Says Expert
2026-03-12 Shafaq News- Basra One of the two tankers recently targeted inside Iraqi territorial waters near the port of Basra was carrying gas condensates produced by Basra Gas Company, economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi revealed on Thursday.
In a statement, Al-Marsoumi added that the second tanker was empty at the time of the attack, noting that Basra Gas Company is owned 51% by Iraq, while the remaining 49% is held by oil major Shell and Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi Corp.
The remarks followed an attack on the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker SAFESEA VISHNU and the Maltese-flagged ZEFYROS inside Iraqi waters near Basra. Firefighters on Thursday extinguished fires aboard the vessels, while rescue teams continued searching for missing crew members after the incident left one person dead and several others injured. Security sources told Shafaq News that preliminary investigations suggest the attack may have involved an explosive-laden boat. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Tanker-hit-near-Basra-carried-gas-condensate-says-expert
Iraq Warns Gulf Tanker Attacks Risk Economic Fallout For Millions
2026-03-12 Shafaq News- Baghdad Iraq’s Ministry of Oil on Thursday stressed that international maritime routes and energy infrastructure must remain outside regional conflicts, after a recent attack targeted two oil tankers inside Iraqi territorial waters near the southern port city of Basra.
In a statement, the ministry described the recent incidents involving oil tankers in Gulf waterways as “a troubling sign” of escalating tensions in a region vital to global energy supplies. It affirmed that attacks on shipping lanes endanger civilian lives and maritime workers while risking broader economic consequences for millions of people.
The statement followed an attack on the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker SAFESEA VISHNU and the Maltese-flagged ZEFYROS inside Iraqi waters near Basra. Firefighters on Thursday extinguished fires aboard the vessels, while rescue teams continued searching for missing crew members after the incident left one person dead and several others injured.
Security sources told Shafaq News that preliminary investigations suggest the attack may have involved an explosive-laden boat. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-warns-Gulf-tanker-attacks-risk-economic-fallout-for-millions
Read more: Iraq’s oil lifeline under pressure: US-Iran war reshapes economic calculus
Basrah Crudes Fall Despite Global Gains
2026-03-12 Shafaq News- Basrah Iraq’s Basrah crude declined more than 1% on Thursday, amid strength in global oil markets. Basrah Heavy crude fell by $1.70, or 1.16%, to $90.89 per barrel, while Basrah Medium crude slipped by $1.70, or 1.14%, to settle at $92.84 per barrel.
Brent futures climbed $4.18, or 4.8%, to settle at $91.98 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate closed $3.80 higher, or 4.6%, at $87.25 a barrel. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Basrah-crudes-fall-despite-global-gains-5
Oil Jumps Nearly 5% As Hormuz Ship Attacks Rattle Supply
2026-03-12 Shafaq News Oil prices settled up nearly 5% on Wednesday as fresh attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz worsened supply disruption fears, and analysts said the International Energy Agency's proposal for a record release of oil reserves is inadequate to ease those worries.
Brent futures rose $4.18, or 4.8%, to settle at $91.98 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate ended the session up $3.80, or 4.6%, at $87.25 a barrel.
Three more vessels have been hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, maritime security and risk firms said on Wednesday. That brought the number of ships struck in the region to at least 14 since the Iran war began.
Shipping along the narrow strait has come to a near standstill since the United States and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28, preventing exports of around a fifth of the world's oil supply and sending global oil prices surging to highs not seen since 2022.
President Donald Trump has said the United States is prepared to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz when necessary. However, sources told Reuters the U.S. Navy has refused requests from the shipping industry for military escorts as the risk of attacks is too high for now.
The IEA, meanwhile, recommended the release of 400 million barrels of oil, the largest such move in its history, to try to rein in energy prices, which are now up more than 25% since the war began. The time frame for the release will be decided in due course, the IEA said.
The proposed volume is more than double the 182 million barrels released in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but analysts said it was ultimately insufficient to resolve supply losses from a prolonged war in the Middle East.
The proposed release is roughly equal to about four days of global production and 16 days of the volume of crude that transits through the Gulf, Macquarie analysts estimated.
"If that doesn't sound like much, it isn't," the analysts said in a note.
Oil prices also shrugged off a U.S. government report that showed crude oil stockpiles in the top oil-producing country had grown more than expected last week. U.S. gasoline and distillate fuel stocks, which include diesel and jet fuel, dropped more than expected, the report showed.
SUPPLY CONCERNS REMAIN
Abu Dhabi state oil giant ADNOC has shut its Ruwais refinery in response to a fire at a facility within the complex following a drone strike, according to a source, marking the latest energy infrastructure disruption due to the Iran war.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is seen boosting supplies via the Red Sea, although they are still far below the levels needed to compensate for the drop in flows from the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data showed.
The kingdom is relying on the Red Sea port of Yanbu to help it boost exports to avert steep production cuts as its neighbors Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have already reduced output.
Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said the war is currently cutting Gulf oil and oil products supply to the market by some 15 million barrels per day, which could raise crude prices to $150 per barrel.
"Even a quick resolution probably implies weeks of disruption for energy markets yet," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
(REUTERS) https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Oil-jumps-nearly-5-as-Hormuz-ship-attacks-rattle-supply
US Dollar Rises In Baghdad And Erbil Markets
2026-03-12 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil The US dollar opened Thursday's trading higher in Iraq, hovering around 154,000 dinars per 100 dollars.
According to a Shafaq News market survey, the dollar traded in Baghdad's Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya exchanges at 154,250 dinars per 100 dollars, down from the previous session’s 153,850 dinars.
In the Iraqi capital, exchange shops sold the dollar at 154,750 dinars and bought it at 153,750 dinars, while in Erbil, selling prices stood at 153,950 dinars and buying prices at 153,850 dinars.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/US-Dollar-rises-in-Baghdad-and-Erbil-markets
Gold Prices Hold In Baghdad, Drop In Erbil
2026-03-12 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil On Thursday, gold prices hovered around 1.12 million IQD per mithqal in Baghdad and Erbil markets, according to a survey by Shafaq News Agency.
Gold prices on Baghdad's Al-Nahr Street recorded a selling price of 1.120 million IQD per mithqal (equivalent to five grams) for 21-carat gold, including Gulf, Turkish, and European varieties, with a buying price of 1.116 million IQD.
The selling price for 21-carat Iraqi gold stood at 1.090 million IQD, while the buying price reached 1.086 million IQD.
In jewelry stores, the selling price per mithqal of 21-carat Gulf gold ranged between 1.120 million and 1.130 million IQD, while Iraqi gold sold for between 1.090 million and 1.100 million IQD.
In Erbil, 22-carat gold was sold at 1.159 million IQD per mithqal, 21-carat gold at 1.106 million IQD, and 18-carat gold at 949,000 IQD. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-prices-hold-in-Baghdad-drop-in-Erbil
“Tidbits From TNT” Thursday Morning 3-12-2026
TNT:
Tishwash: A large US military convoy is withdrawing from Iraq towards the largest US base in Syria.
On Wednesday, a convoy of military armored vehicles and trucks loaded with military equipment, including air defense systems, was seen heading towards Qasrak base in northeastern Syria, coming from Iraq.
Qasrak base is one of the largest American bases in Syria.
Last January, US forces evacuated part of their military equipment at the Qasrak base, amid reports that Washington intended to end its military presence in Syria within a month.
TNT:
Tishwash: A large US military convoy is withdrawing from Iraq towards the largest US base in Syria.
On Wednesday, a convoy of military armored vehicles and trucks loaded with military equipment, including air defense systems, was seen heading towards Qasrak base in northeastern Syria, coming from Iraq.
Qasrak base is one of the largest American bases in Syria.
Last January, US forces evacuated part of their military equipment at the Qasrak base, amid reports that Washington intended to end its military presence in Syria within a month.
It also ended its presence at the Al-Tanf base in the Homs countryside and the Al-Shaddadi base in the Hasakah countryside at the beginning of this year, and handed them over to the Syrian Ministry of Defense forces, after 12 years that its forces spent in bases in the north and east of the country to confront the “ISIS” organization. link
Tishwash: The Ministry of Finance is exploring economic reforms and ways to boost non-oil revenues.
Finance Minister Taif Sami directed on Wednesday that non-oil revenues be strengthened. The ministry said in a statement that “Minister of Finance, Taif Sami, chaired today the periodic meeting of the ministry’s advisory board, in the presence of the advisor and the directors general of the ministry and its formations.”
Indicating that “during the meeting, financial and economic reforms were reviewed and discussed, with a focus on evaluating the institutional performance of the past period and developing plans to raise the efficiency of administrative and financial work in line with the directions aimed at achieving financial stability in the country.”
She added that "the meeting witnessed discussions on vital issues, foremost among them the axis of maximizing public revenues." The minister stressed "the need to intensify efforts and push towards enhancing non-oil revenues in accordance with a modern vision that adopts digital transformation."
She stressed "the importance of joint coordination between the ministry's departments towards a comprehensive structural reform that ensures the sustainability of financial resources and directs them towards the most important development sectors." link
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Tishwash: Maliki sets conditions for withdrawing his candidacy for prime minister, while Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq pushes for renewing al-Sudani's term.
An informed source within the coordination framework revealed on Thursday that the leader of the State of Law Coalition, Nouri al-Maliki, set conditions for withdrawing his candidacy to head the new government, while the Asaib Ahl al-Haq movement believes that renewing confidence in the "outgoing" Prime Minister, Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, will protect Iraq from internal tensions and external sanctions.
The source told Shafaq News Agency that "Maliki's messages, through the mediator who adopted the mediation to resolve the Shiite-Shiite dispute over the identity of the prime minister, reached all parties that rejected Maliki's nomination."
He explained that "among Maliki's conditions is not renewing the mandate of caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and not nominating the leader of the Victory Coalition, Haider al-Abadi, as a compromise candidate to fill the position. Rather, a figure who is acceptable to all parties, including Maliki's approval, must be nominated."
He noted that "the message has been received and discussions about the demands have begun among the framework's forces through inter-communication and meetings, and the framework may reveal its position regarding those demands after the Eid al-Fitr holiday."
The Coordination Framework had officially nominated Maliki on January 24, a move that opened the door to negotiations to form the new government, but the process faltered as disagreements continued over the election of the President of the Republic, the constitutional entitlement that precedes assigning the candidate of the largest bloc to form the government.
However, al-Maliki’s nomination was met with rejection from some Sunni forces, as well as parties within the Shiite bloc itself, in addition to strong rejection from the American administration, whose president, Donald Trump, threatened at the time that Washington would stop its aid to Iraq if al-Maliki assumed the premiership.
In contrast, the Asaib Ahl al-Haq movement, led by Qais al-Khazali, believes that the regional situation does not allow for additional tensions and that the issue of the premiership must be resolved as quickly as possible.
MP Mohammed Al-Baldawi, from the “Sadiqun” parliamentary bloc affiliated with Asaib Ahl al-Haq, told Shafaq News Agency that “the leadership of the coordination framework must have a clear vision for finding solutions, the first of which is forming a fully empowered government capable of leading the country during this period, and the status quo is not in the interest of the country or the Iraqi people.”
He stressed that "the situation requires us to give confidence to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani to continue managing the phase, because this is in the interest of the people and the country cannot enter into new conflicts, and in order to spare the country from sanctions."
He pointed out that "the economic situation in the country as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the cessation of oil exports is not reassuring, and the government is seeking to find other outlets to finance employee salaries."
Al-Baldawi added: “We will proceed with whatever the coordinating framework agrees upon. The leaders of the framework are the wise men of this country and possess the national mentality to bear responsibility,” noting that “the leaders of the coordinating framework will hold a meeting in the coming days to resolve the issue of forming the government, and there is near agreement and consensus on resolving this issue.”
The leaders of the Coordination Framework were scheduled to meet last Monday to resolve the disputes and agree on a candidate for the next government, but this did not happen due to a lack of convergence of views, according to a source within the Coordination Framework.
At the time, an informed source told Shafaq News Agency that "most of the forces within the framework had agreed to renew the mandate of caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, but the insistence of the framework's candidate, Nouri al-Maliki, on his nomination, along with the rejection by some important parties in the Shiite bloc of renewing al-Sudani's mandate, thwarted the meeting and no date was set for it to be held again."
He added: “Official public meetings may be postponed until after the Eid al-Fitr holiday, meaning that internal meetings will continue to reach a final solution after clarifying the reasons for the rejection of the Sudanese renaming by the objecting parties.
On Wednesday, a well-informed political source revealed that the head of the Badr Organization, Hadi al-Amiri, is making efforts to bring together the leaders of the Coordination Framework and bring them together at a dialogue table to resolve the crisis of the candidate for the upcoming government.
Al-Amiri’s attempts come after the escalation of the dispute between the parties within the framework regarding the leader of the State of Law Coalition, Nouri al-Maliki, the candidate for prime minister, around whom disagreements have revolved within the Shiite bloc itself, as well as from partners in the political process, in addition to external pressures, most notably the American ones, which reject al-Maliki assuming the premiership.
The source told Shafaq News Agency, "There are attempts by Al-Amiri to bring together the leaders of the Coordination Framework for an Iftar or Suhoor meal in the coming days to resolve the political dispute and solve the crisis of the prime minister candidate and the formation of the next government."
He explained that "the coordination framework is currently divided into three wings, one of which includes Nouri al-Maliki, Mohsen al-Mandalawi and Hussein Mounis, another against al-Maliki which includes Ammar al-Hakim and Qais al-Khazali, and a third wing that is currently reserved which includes Hadi al-Amiri, Humam Hamoudi and Mohammed Shia al-Sudani." link
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Mot: Stressed Out Woman
Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Wednesday Evening 3-11-26
Good Evening Dinar Recaps,
Iran War Sends Shockwaves Through Global Economy and Energy Markets
Oil volatility, trade disruptions, and market uncertainty highlight the economic cost of geopolitical conflict
Overview
The escalating conflict involving the United States, Iran, and Israel is rapidly destabilizing the global economic system.
Good Evening Dinar Recaps,
Iran War Sends Shockwaves Through Global Economy and Energy Markets
Oil volatility, trade disruptions, and market uncertainty highlight the economic cost of geopolitical conflict
Overview
The escalating conflict involving the United States, Iran, and Israel is rapidly destabilizing the global economic system.
What began as a military confrontation is now triggering widespread economic ripple effects across energy markets, global shipping routes, supply chains, and financial markets.
Energy prices surged as fears grew over potential disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world.
The resulting volatility highlights how deeply the global economy remains dependent on stability in the Middle East, where even limited disruptions can send shockwaves through markets worldwide.
Key Developments
1. Oil Markets React Immediately to War Risks
Energy markets were among the first and most dramatic responders to the outbreak of conflict.
Oil prices surged as traders feared disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments normally pass.
Because oil powers:
Global transportation
Industrial production
International trade
Any threat to supply routes can rapidly translate into higher prices and economic instability.
Although markets later cooled after signals that the conflict might de-escalate, the extreme price swings revealed the fragility of global energy markets.
2. Fear of a New Global Energy Shock
The volatility in oil prices has revived concerns about a potential global energy shock.
Historically, major energy shocks have triggered:
Inflation surges
Economic slowdowns
Financial market instability
Higher fuel prices ripple through the economy by increasing the cost of:
Transportation
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Consumer goods
For energy-importing nations, the situation can become particularly severe as governments face rising subsidy costs and growing fiscal pressure.
3. Trade Routes and Supply Chains Under Pressure
Beyond energy markets, the conflict is placing major strain on global trade logistics.
The Gulf region serves as a central maritime corridor for global commerce, and rising security risks have increased shipping insurance costs and slowed tanker movements.
As shipping companies reassess routes through the region, transport costs are rising, creating ripple effects throughout global supply chains.
Industries around the world are beginning to feel the pressure as:
Shipping delays increase
Freight costs climb
Raw materials become more expensive
Even countries geographically far from the conflict are experiencing economic consequences.
4. Emerging Markets Already Feeling the Impact
Some developing economies are experiencing the earliest and most severe consequences of energy disruptions.
For example, Bangladesh has already reported diesel shortages following disruptions to Middle Eastern shipments, forcing fuel rationing and power cuts.
These shortages are affecting key industries, including the country’s massive garment manufacturing sector, demonstrating how quickly energy disruptions can cascade through national economies.
This situation illustrates how regional conflicts can trigger global economic instability within days.
5. Financial Markets Struggle With Uncertainty
Financial markets have experienced sharp swings as investors attempt to assess whether the conflict will escalate or stabilize.
Oil prices surged to multi-year highs before retreating as markets speculated about potential political pressure for de-escalation.
Stock markets followed a similar pattern, dropping and then rebounding as traders reassessed the geopolitical outlook.
The core issue driving volatility is uncertainty.
Markets can adjust to high oil prices or geopolitical tension if conditions are predictable. But unpredictability causes businesses to delay investments and investors to reduce risk exposure, slowing economic growth.
Why It Matters
The Middle East plays a central role in the global energy system, meaning conflicts there rarely remain isolated geopolitical events.
Instead, they trigger economic ripple effects across the entire global economy, including:
Energy price spikes
Supply chain disruptions
Financial market volatility
Inflation pressures
In today’s interconnected economy, geopolitical instability quickly becomes an economic crisis.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
Energy shocks often create significant shifts in currency markets and global monetary policy.
When oil prices surge:
Inflation tends to rise worldwide
Central banks may tighten policy
Energy-exporting countries can gain economic leverage
Energy-importing nations face currency pressure
These dynamics can reshape global financial flows and alter currency strength across regions.
Implications for the Global Reset
Pillar 1: Energy as a Catalyst for Economic Instability
Major energy disruptions have historically triggered structural economic shifts, forcing governments and financial institutions to adjust policy frameworks.
Energy shocks influence:
Inflation cycles
Monetary policy decisions
Government fiscal strategies
These pressures often accelerate systemic changes in the global economic structure.
Pillar 2: Geopolitical Conflict Driving Financial Volatility
The current conflict demonstrates how geopolitical tensions can destabilize global markets almost instantly.
War in strategic regions can disrupt:
Energy supply chains
Trade routes
Financial market stability
Such disruptions increase pressure on policymakers to develop more resilient global financial and energy systems.
Conclusion
The war involving the United States, Iran, and Israel has already begun reshaping the global economic landscape.
Energy markets are volatile, shipping routes face growing risks, and financial markets remain on edge as investors attempt to gauge the trajectory of the conflict.
Even if the war eventually de-escalates, the economic shockwaves are likely to linger, reminding policymakers and investors how vulnerable the global economy remains to geopolitical conflict.
In an interconnected world, wars in strategic regions rarely remain local events—they become global economic crises.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
Modern Diplomacy — "How the Iran War Is Destabilizing the Global Economy"
Reuters — "Oil Prices Volatile as Middle East Conflict Raises Supply Concerns"
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BRICS Expands Economic Reach as Thailand Hosts Russia Business Forum
Bangkok summit signals deeper cooperation between Southeast Asia and emerging economic powers
Overview (Key Points)
The BRICS economic bloc is continuing to expand its global economic network with the announcement of a new Thailand–Russia Business Forum scheduled for March 20 in Bangkok.
The forum aims to strengthen trade, investment, and economic cooperation between Thailand and Russia, while also opening broader channels of engagement with BRICS-connected economies.
Thai officials and business leaders see the initiative as an opportunity to expand partnerships with emerging markets, attract new investment, and integrate more deeply into the growing BRICS economic ecosystem.
The event highlights how BRICS continues to build economic partnerships beyond its formal membership, expanding its influence across Asia and the Global South.
Key Developments
1. Thailand to Host Major BRICS-Linked Economic Forum
The Thailand–Russia Business Forum, scheduled for March 20 in Bangkok, will serve as a platform to expand bilateral trade and investment cooperation.
The event is being organized in connection with the BRICS International Alliance, which aims to promote economic collaboration among emerging economies.
According to Dr. Meechai Thaocharean, a representative of the International Alliance of Strategic Projects, the forum is designed to encourage new business partnerships and investment opportunities across the BRICS network.
The gathering is expected to connect businesses, policymakers, and investors seeking to expand economic cooperation in a rapidly changing global trade environment.
2. Broad Participation Expected Across Government and Industry
The event will bring together a wide range of stakeholders from both public and private sectors.
Participants will include:
Government officials from Thailand
Business leaders and international investors
Representatives from BRICS economic initiatives
Private-sector executives from major corporations
Organizations such as Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and major Thai conglomerates including CP Group are expected to participate.
The goal is to create direct engagement between policymakers, investors, and companies exploring new cross-border opportunities.
3. Thailand Seeking Stronger Ties With Emerging Economies
Although Thailand is a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the country is increasingly looking toward BRICS-linked markets for new growth opportunities.
Officials believe expanding cooperation with BRICS nations could help Thailand:
Open new export markets
Attract foreign investment
Strengthen technology partnerships
Boost infrastructure development
As global economic power gradually shifts toward emerging markets, Southeast Asian economies are positioning themselves to benefit from new trade corridors.
4. Russia Expands Economic Partnerships Outside the West
For Russia, the forum reflects a broader strategy of deepening economic ties with emerging economies and the Global South.
Western sanctions have accelerated Moscow’s pivot toward:
Asian markets
BRICS partners
Developing economies
By strengthening ties with Thailand and other regional players, Russia aims to expand trade networks and reduce reliance on Western financial systems.
5. Key Cooperation Areas Identified
Officials involved in the forum say several sectors offer significant opportunities for bilateral cooperation, including:
Agriculture and food production
Technology development
Logistics and transportation
Tourism and hospitality
As trade between emerging economies grows, these sectors could become major drivers of cross-border investment and economic integration.
Why It Matters
The Thailand–Russia Business Forum reflects a broader trend in global economics: the expanding network of partnerships among emerging economies.
As BRICS and associated nations build new trade relationships and investment corridors, economic activity is gradually diversifying beyond traditional Western markets.
This evolution could reshape global trade flows, investment patterns, and economic alliances over the coming decades.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
For those tracking global financial developments, increased cooperation among emerging economies signals a shift toward more diversified economic partnerships and trade frameworks.
Such developments can lead to:
Greater use of local currencies in trade
Expanded regional financial cooperation
New investment corridors across emerging markets
Over time, these shifts may gradually reshape the structure of global economic influence.
Implications for the Global Reset
Pillar 1: Expansion of Emerging Market Trade Networks
The growing cooperation between countries like Thailand and Russia illustrates how new economic corridors are forming outside traditional Western alliances.
As emerging markets deepen trade ties, they are building alternative networks of commerce and investment.
Pillar 2: BRICS Influence Extending Beyond Membership
Even countries that are not official members of BRICS are increasingly engaging with its economic initiatives.
This expanding network reflects a broader shift toward multipolar economic cooperation, where regional partnerships play a greater role in global growth.
Conclusion
The upcoming Thailand–Russia Business Forum in Bangkok highlights how BRICS-linked initiatives are broadening economic cooperation across Asia and the Global South.
By bringing together government officials, investors, and industry leaders, the event aims to unlock new trade opportunities and strengthen economic partnerships.
As emerging economies expand collaboration and diversify their trade relationships, the architecture of global commerce continues to evolve toward a more interconnected and multipolar system.
And as these partnerships grow, the influence of emerging markets in shaping global economic dynamics is likely to expand as well.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
Watcher Guru — "BRICS Announce Thailand-Russia Business Forum"
Reuters — "Russia Expands Trade Ties With Asian Economies Amid Global Economic Shift"
~~~~~~~~~~
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Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Wednesday Evening 3-11-26
Al-Sadr Warns Against Fueling Sectarianism And Calls On Sunnis And Shiites In Iraq To Unite In Brotherhood
Baghdad – One New 3/11/2026 The leader of the Shiite national movement , Muqtada al-Sadr , warned on Wednesday against attempts to inflame sectarian tensions in the region, amid the unprecedented escalation in the Middle East.
Al-Sadr said in a statement: “I have been informed that there are those who seek to incite sectarianism in the region, taking advantage of the unprecedented escalation that has occurred in the Middle East.”
Al-Sadr Warns Against Fueling Sectarianism And Calls On Sunnis And Shiites In Iraq To Unite In Brotherhood
Baghdad – One New 3/11/2026 The leader of the Shiite national movement , Muqtada al-Sadr , warned on Wednesday against attempts to inflame sectarian tensions in the region, amid the unprecedented escalation in the Middle East.
Al-Sadr said in a statement: “I have been informed that there are those who seek to incite sectarianism in the region, taking advantage of the unprecedented escalation that has occurred in the Middle East.”
He added: “From here I call upon the conscious peoples of the region, especially the people of Iraq, both Sunni and Shia, to be wise and committed to Islamic and Qur’anic law and brotherhood, for the blood of a Shia Muslim is forbidden to a Sunni Muslim, and the blood of a Sunni Muslim is forbidden to a Shia Muslim.
He continued: “I ask them to be aware of the extent of the imminent danger emanating from the common enemy and its extremist arms in the region, here and there.”
Al-Sadr affirmed in his statement: “Sunnis and Shiites are brothers; this religion is not for sale.” He added: “Peace be upon those who reject sectarianism and are brothers among themselves.”
He concluded by saying: “Let us be among those who unite the ranks and not divide them, so that we may stand as a solid structure against all hostile challenges.” https://1news-iq.net/الصدر-يحذر-من-تأجيج-الطائفية-ويدعو-سنة/
Grand Ayatollah Sistani: We Hope That Mojtaba Khamenei Will Succeed In Serving The Iranian People
Baghdad – One News 3/11/2026 The office of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani expressed hope on Wednesday that the new leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran would succeed in serving the Iranian people and preserving the unity of the country.
In a statement issued from Najaf, the office said that as the memory of the late leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ali Khamenei , is commemorated, it is hoped that his successor will be successful in serving the great Iranian people, repelling the evil of enemies, and preserving national unity and harmony. The statement was issued on the 21st of Ramadan 1447 AH by the office of Al-Sistani in Najaf. https://1news-iq.net/المرجع-السيستاني-نأمل-أن-يوفق-مجتبى-خا/
IRI Warns Syria’s President Against Move Toward Hezbollah And Lebanon
transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa on Wednesday against any “hostile move” toward Hezbollah or Lebanon, 2026-03-11 / 11:29 Shafaq News- Baghdad A coalition of Iran-aligned Iraqi armed groups warned Syria’s saying such action would amount to “a declaration of war” against the regional “Axis of Resistance.”
In a statement, the group calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) cautioned al-Sharaa -also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani- against coordinating with the “Zionist-American enemy” to target Lebanon.
The factions also warned that Iraqi militants could “respond militarily” if Lebanon’s resistance environment or Hezbollah were targeted.
Earlier today, the same factions claimed they had carried out 291 military operations over 12 days, alleging the attacks killed 13 US personnel and wounded dozens more.
They also said 31 operations involving drones and rockets targeted US military positions in Iraq and the wider region in the past 24 hours.
United States Department of Defense officials have not immediately commented on the claims, which could not be independently verified.
The threats come amid escalating regional tensions following the outbreak of the US–Israeli war against Iran on Feb. 28. Since then, several areas in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region have experienced rocket and drone attacks attributed to Iran-aligned armed groups. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Security/IRI-warns-Syria-s-president-against-move-toward-Lebanon
Al-Saadi: The New Government May Be Formed After The Eid Al-Fitr Holiday.
10 Mar 19:22 Information/Baghdad... Former MP Baqir al-Saadi confirmed on Tuesday that the formation of the next Iraqi government may take place after the Eid al-Fitr holiday.
Al-Saadi told Al-Maalomah, “Despite the current situation in the region, the aggression against Iran, and the repeated targeting of Popular Mobilization Forces units that resulted in martyrs and wounded, efforts to proceed with forming the government are ongoing and it is taking upon itself the management of these files and the endeavor to address the economic and financial crises.”
He added that “expectations indicate that after the Eid al-Fitr holiday, we may witness the formation of a new government, especially since all political forces have become aware of the seriousness of the situation and the need to join forces to resolve the outstanding issues.”
He explained that “the next two weeks could be crucial in finding clear paths to resolve the presidential issue, and then moving to the final stage of tasking the candidate of the largest bloc with forming the cabinet,” stressing that “political meetings in Baghdad are ongoing and may yield more positive results in the coming period.” End/25 F.
Iraqi PM, Saudi Crown Prince Push Diplomacy To Halt Regional War
2026-03-11 Shafaq News- Baghdad Iraqi caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed the escalating regional conflict on Wednesday, stressing the need for coordinated efforts to halt the war and pursue diplomatic solutions.
According to a statement from al-Sudani’s office, the two leaders spoke by phone about developments across the region and the risks posed by continued military escalation.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Iraqi-PM-Saudi-Crown-Prince-push-diplomacy-to-halt-regional-war
A Government Advisor Identifies Two Benefits Of Rising Oil Prices Despite OPEC Restrictions.
{Economic: Al-Furat News} The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, confirmed that the arrival of global oil prices at the $90 per barrel mark gives Iraq an important financial opportunity to boost its revenues and improve its ability to finance its economic obligations, noting that every increase of one dollar adds hundreds of millions of dollars annually to the public treasury.
Saleh told Al-Furat News Agency that the increase has direct benefits, most notably an increase in financial resources that enable the state to finance infrastructure projects such as electricity, roads and housing, and to meet obligations towards the salaries of employees and retirees, as well as reducing the need to borrow to cover the financial deficit.
He added that increased returns effectively contribute to strengthening the central bank’s foreign currency reserves, which positively impacts the stability of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate, enhances confidence in the financial system, and gives monetary authorities greater ability to cope with economic shocks.
Saleh explained that fully benefiting from these prices faces limitations, including Iraq’s commitments within the OPEC+ alliance, which may impose production quotas, in addition to geopolitical challenges and their impact on the safety of vital maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, which may hinder the smooth flow of exports.
He pointed to a structural challenge in that a large part of the revenues goes towards operating expenses and salaries, calling for the need to invest financial surpluses in building a diversified economic base that includes the industry, agriculture and tourism sectors, to reduce the almost total dependence on oil and avoid the risks of future global price fluctuations.
https://alforatnews.iq/news/مستشار-حكومي-يحدد-فائدتين-من-ارتفاع-أسعار-النفط-رغم-قيود-اوبك
An Expert Identifies Two Conditions For Iraq To Benefit From Rising Global Oil Prices.
{Economic: Al-Furat News} Economic expert Salah Nouri confirmed that the rise in oil export prices positively impacts reducing the state's general budget deficit and enhancing its implementation, explaining that this rise contributes to providing cash liquidity in Iraqi dinars to the Ministry of Finance through the sale of foreign currency proceeds to the Central Bank.
Nouri explained to Al-Furat News Agency that “the increase in oil prices also leads to an increase in the foreign reserves of the Central Bank as a result of the purchase of dollars from the Ministry of Finance, noting that achieving these economic benefits remains conditional on the government’s ability to export the quantities of oil specified in the budget through the seaports under the current exceptional circumstances, in addition to the export quantities through Türkiye.”
He added that "taking advantage of this increase requires ensuring the smooth transfer of export proceeds in dollars from the US Federal Reserve to the Central Bank of Iraq." https://alforatnews.iq/news/خبير-يحدد-شرطين-لاستفادة-العراق-من-ارتفاع-
Iraq Links 40,000 Fuel Tankers To GPS Tracking System To Curb Smuggling
2026-03-11 Shafaq News- Baghdad Iraq has linked 40,000 tankers transporting petroleum products to an electronic GPS tracking system in an effort to curb oil and fuel smuggling, the Ministry of Communications stated on Wednesday.
In a statement, the ministry said the project aims to limit the smuggling of oil and its derivatives and strengthen oversight of their transportation across Iraq.
It was implemented through the state-owned Al-Salam Company, which equipped the Oil Products Distribution Company with the GPS tracking system and connected it electronically to all tankers, whether government-owned or privately operated. “The measure is also intended to improve the efficiency and management of Iraq’s petroleum transport sector nationwide while supporting government efforts to protect national resources,” the statement added.
Earlier,Iraq has cut its oil production by about 2.9 million barrels per day, making it the country with the largest production reduction globally amid the US-Israeli war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Wednesday Afternoon 3-11-26
Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps
China Accelerates Yuan Internationalization as BRICS Expands Currency Influence
Beijing pushes global use of its currency for trade and cross-border payments
Overview
China is intensifying efforts to expand the global role of the Chinese yuan, signaling a strategic push to reshape international financial flows.
Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps
China Accelerates Yuan Internationalization as BRICS Expands Currency Influence
Beijing pushes global use of its currency for trade and cross-border payments
Overview
China is intensifying efforts to expand the global role of the Chinese yuan, signaling a strategic push to reshape international financial flows.
During a recent announcement, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), confirmed that Beijing is actively pursuing the internationalization of the yuan to support cross-border trade and financial cooperation.
The initiative comes as the BRICS bloc continues exploring alternatives to the traditional Western-dominated financial system, even while slowing the pace of its earlier de-dollarization rhetoric.
China’s strategy focuses on expanding the yuan’s role in global payments, trade settlement, and financial infrastructure, particularly among emerging economies and BRICS partners.
Key Developments
1. China Moves to Expand Global Use of the Yuan
Governor Pan Gongsheng confirmed that China is gradually promoting the international use of the yuan as part of a broader financial reform strategy.
The effort includes:
Simplifying cross-border yuan transactions
Encouraging trade settlements using the Chinese currency
Building alternative payment infrastructure
Chinese officials say the goal is to create a safer, more efficient, and diversified system for global payments, reducing dependence on existing financial networks.
This initiative represents a long-term effort to elevate the yuan’s role in international finance.
2. BRICS Trade Already Shifting Toward Local Currencies
The push for yuan internationalization aligns with broader trends inside the **BRICS alliance.
Trade between **China and Russia has already shifted dramatically toward local currency settlements.
Recent estimates indicate that roughly 90% of bilateral trade between the two countries now occurs using local currencies, largely bypassing the U.S. dollar.
This shift demonstrates how geopolitical tensions and sanctions are accelerating alternative payment arrangements.
3. China Seeks Wider Global Adoption
China is now looking beyond BRICS to expand the yuan’s global footprint.
According to the PBOC governor, Beijing is actively working with:
European Union financial partners
Brazil and other emerging economies
Nations across the Global South
These discussions focus on increasing the yuan’s role in trade settlement and financial cooperation, particularly in regions seeking alternatives to traditional dollar-based systems.
4. Financial Reforms Supporting Yuan Expansion
China’s leadership has also indicated that greater financial liberalization will accompany the yuan’s global expansion.
For years, the Chinese currency was tightly controlled by authorities. Now, Beijing appears willing to gradually open financial channels to facilitate broader international usage.
Officials describe this process as part of China’s broader economic reform and global integration strategy.
5. BRICS Summit Could Advance the Plan
The issue of currency cooperation is expected to appear prominently at the next BRICS summit scheduled in New Delhi.
Because the BRICS alliance operates on consensus, any formal initiative involving currency integration would require agreement from all member nations.
However, China’s growing advocacy suggests the yuan could become a central pillar of BRICS financial cooperation in the coming years.
Why It Matters
China’s push to internationalize the yuan represents one of the most significant long-term shifts underway in the global monetary system.
The current system remains heavily dominated by the United States dollar, which accounts for the majority of:
Global trade settlements
Central bank reserves
International financial transactions
Expanding the yuan’s global role could gradually diversify the currency landscape of international finance.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
For those tracking global monetary developments, the yuan’s expansion highlights an emerging trend toward a more diversified currency system.
Potential implications include:
Greater use of non-dollar currencies in global trade
Alternative payment infrastructure connecting emerging economies
Expanded financial cooperation across BRICS nations
However, major shifts in the global monetary system typically occur over long periods rather than through sudden changes.
Implications for the Global Reset
Pillar 1: Diversification of Global Payment Systems
China’s efforts to expand yuan usage reflect a broader trend in which countries seek alternatives to traditional financial networks.
This includes:
Local currency trade
Cross-border payment innovation
Regional financial cooperation
Such initiatives gradually reduce reliance on a single global currency.
Pillar 2: Rise of Multipolar Monetary Influence
The expansion of the yuan within BRICS and emerging markets signals a move toward a more multipolar financial order.
Instead of one dominant currency, the future system could involve several major currencies playing regional and global roles.
This evolution may reshape trade dynamics, capital flows, and international financial governance.
Conclusion
China’s renewed push to internationalize the yuan demonstrates its ambition to strengthen the currency’s role in global trade and finance.
Through expanded payment systems, increased cooperation with emerging economies, and deeper integration within BRICS, Beijing is laying the groundwork for a more diversified international monetary system.
While the transition will likely unfold gradually, the direction is clear: global finance is entering a period of increasing currency competition and structural transformation.
And as alternative systems expand, the balance of monetary influence may slowly shift toward a more multipolar world.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
Watcher Guru — "BRICS Member China Announces Internationalization of the Chinese Yuan"
Reuters — "China Pushes Yuan Internationalization Through Trade and Financial Cooperation"
~~~~~~~~~~
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“Tidbits From TNT” Wednesday 3-11-2026
TNT:
Tishwash: Al-Saadi: The new government may be formed after the Eid al-Fitr holiday.
Former MP Baqir al-Saadi confirmed on Tuesday that the formation of the next Iraqi government may take place after the Eid al-Fitr holiday.
Al-Saadi told Al-Maalomah, “Despite the current situation in the region, the aggression against Iran, and the repeated targeting of Popular Mobilization Forces units that resulted in martyrs and wounded, efforts to proceed with forming the government are ongoing and it is taking upon itself the management of these files and the endeavor to address the economic and financial crises.”
TNT:
Tishwash: Al-Saadi: The new government may be formed after the Eid al-Fitr holiday.
Former MP Baqir al-Saadi confirmed on Tuesday that the formation of the next Iraqi government may take place after the Eid al-Fitr holiday.
Al-Saadi told Al-Maalomah, “Despite the current situation in the region, the aggression against Iran, and the repeated targeting of Popular Mobilization Forces units that resulted in martyrs and wounded, efforts to proceed with forming the government are ongoing and it is taking upon itself the management of these files and the endeavor to address the economic and financial crises.”
He added that “expectations indicate that after the Eid al-Fitr holiday, we may witness the formation of a new government, especially since all political forces have become aware of the seriousness of the situation and the need to join forces to resolve the outstanding issues.”
He explained that “the next two weeks could be crucial in finding clear paths to resolve the presidential issue, and then moving to the final stage of tasking the candidate of the largest bloc with forming the cabinet,” stressing that “political meetings in Baghdad are ongoing and may yield more positive results in the coming period.” link
Tishwash: Rule of law: We will complete two-thirds within the framework if the Sudanese need it to secure a second term.
Diaa Al-Nasiri, a member of the State of Law Coalition, confirmed that the coalition will complete the two-thirds within the coordination framework if the current Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, needs it to finalize his nomination for a second term.
Al-Nasiri said on a television program: “If the Sudanese candidate gets a two-thirds majority, we are with him.”
The statement comes as no official statement has been issued by the framework announcing the withdrawal of Nouri al-Maliki’s candidacy, as the latter insists that the framework itself should withdraw, and that he will not back down.
A private source confirmed that understandings within the coordination framework to re-nominate Mr. Al-Sudani for a second term have been postponed for a few days, after it was planned to announce this at Monday’s meeting. link
************
Tishwash: 100 trillion dinars held in homes: Withdrawal restrictions fuel a "cash economy," but the central bank offers reassurance.
The New World
Confidence in the Iraqi banking sector is facing a critical test. While an economist warns that restricting withdrawals is fueling a “cash economy” and hoarding 100 trillion dinars in homes, the Central Bank rushed in an extraordinary session to reassure the markets, stressing the strength of the financial system and its ability to manage liquidity, in an attempt to bridge the gap between precautionary policies and depositors’ fears.
Loss of confidence in banks
Economic expert Haider Abdullah Asfour told Al-Alam Al-Jadeed on Tuesday (March 10, 2026) that “the inability of citizens to withdraw their money in full from banks causes significant damage to the banking sector and the economy in general,” explaining that “this is mainly due to the weakness of those in charge of this sector, their lack of experience, and the confusion in dealing with crises, which greatly affects the work of banks.”
Local news sites reported on Monday that Rafidain and Rasheed banks are suffering from a severe liquidity crisis and a shortage of cash, with a clear decline in the funds available within them.
Branches of the two banks have begun asking customers to wait or return later to receive their money in full, while some branches are providing part of the required amount and postponing the delivery of the rest.
Asfour explains that “one of the most prominent of these damages is the loss of confidence in the banking sector, as when a citizen cannot freely withdraw his money, he loses confidence in banks, which leads citizens to refrain from depositing their money in banks and prefer to keep cash at home instead of in banks.”
It is believed that “weak confidence also leads to a decline in bank deposits, as citizens begin to gradually withdraw their money from banks, which leads to a decrease in the volume of deposits and weakens the banks’ ability to lend and invest.”
Cash economy
He points out that “this also contributes to increasing the cash economy, as citizens keeping their money outside banks leads to an increase in cash circulation outside the banking system, which reduces the state’s ability to monitor financial and tax activity and the movement of funds that may be directed towards terrorism, support for extremist and terrorist groups, or corruption.”
He adds, “Among the repercussions is also the weakening of investment and development, as banks rely on deposits to finance projects, and when deposits decline, loans granted to small and medium enterprises decrease and economic growth slows down.”
Investors' reluctance
He continues, “Restricting withdrawals also leads to damage to the reputation of the banking system locally and internationally, as it harms the reputation of banks and leads to the reluctance of foreign investors and the difficulty for banks to enter into international partnerships.”
100 trillion dinars
Expert Asfour points to the existence of a large cash mass outside the banking system, saying: “The cash mass in Iraq amounts to about 100 trillion Iraqi dinars, which is equivalent to 75 to 76 billion dollars according to data from the Central Bank of Iraq at the beginning of 2026,” indicating that “about 70 to 90 percent of this cash is outside the banking system and in homes, which leads to a weakening of the credit role of banks.”
Asfour calls on decision-makers and those in charge of this “sector to reconsider the policies followed in a way that serves the Iraqi economy and the national interest and does not harm the interests of citizens and their confidence in the banking system.”
Iraqi market
The economist points out that “regional conditions, including the war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, and what is related to the Strait of Hormuz and the halt in oil production, as well as the banks depositing about 117 trillion dinars with the Central Bank, in addition to the banks’ fears of the rise in the price of the dollar against the dinar, are all factors that have confused the Iraqi market.”
It also points to “practical problems faced by those dealing with banks, such as contractors who have payment vouchers issued by certain ministries and deposited with banks, but they face difficulty in receiving their money due to the lack of liquidity, which casts doubt on the banks’ ability and weakens confidence in them.”
Central Bank reassures
The Central Bank of Iraq confirmed on Monday that it continues to perform its constitutional and legal responsibilities in protecting monetary and financial stability and maintaining the strength and integrity of the banking system in Iraq.
The bank stated in a statement received by “Al-Alam Al-Jadeed” that the Central Bank’s Board of Directors held an extraordinary session to follow up on current economic and financial developments, review the most prominent macroeconomic indicators, and assess future expectations in light of local and international developments and the challenges or opportunities they may present to the national economy.
The statement added that during the meeting, the council conducted a comprehensive assessment of the monetary and financial market conditions, including an analysis of liquidity levels in the banking system and developments in the money supply, as well as a review of the levels of foreign reserves at the central bank.
The Council also reviewed financial stability indicators and the performance of the banking sector, in addition to monitoring foreign trade and payment flows, while assessing potential risks associated with regional and international economic variables and their potential repercussions on the Iraqi economy.
The council discussed a number of possible economic and financial scenarios for the next phase, focusing on how to enhance the flexibility of monetary policy and the sustainability of financial stability, and ensure the banking system’s ability to respond efficiently to the demands of economic activity.
Temporary shocks
Asfour affirms that “building a successful banking system requires an integrated and modern system that serves all parties,” stressing “the need to adopt economic policies that enhance confidence among investors and depositors instead of weakening it.”
He warns that “banks may be able to withstand temporary shocks, but they are required to look at the long term, enhance confidence, attract funds and investments, and encourage the localization of funds within banks through appropriate incentives and benefits, which will contribute to bringing the large monetary mass into the banking system and supporting financial stability in the country.”
Media sources revealed earlier (February 15, 2026) that the government was forced to withdraw about 20 trillion dinars from Al-Rafidain Bank, in addition to between 7 and 8 trillion dinars from Al-Rasheed Bank, as well as withdrawing about 7 billion dollars from another bank, along with sums of money from industrial and agricultural banks, in order to cover salaries during the past months. link
************
Mot : Moms Truism
Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Wednesday Morning 3-11-26
Good Morning Dinar Recaps
IEA Considers Historic Oil Reserve Release as Middle East War Threatens Global Supply
Energy markets brace for emergency intervention amid fears of a prolonged oil shock
Good Morning Dinar Recaps
IEA Considers Historic Oil Reserve Release as Middle East War Threatens Global Supply
Energy markets brace for emergency intervention amid fears of a prolonged oil shock
Overview
The global energy system may soon face its largest emergency intervention ever as the International Energy Agency (IEA) considers a record release of strategic oil reserves.
The proposal comes as the escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel threatens energy flows from the Middle East, driving sharp volatility in oil markets.
If approved, the coordinated release could exceed the 182 million barrels deployed in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, making it the largest intervention in the history of global strategic petroleum reserves.
For global markets, the move reflects growing concern among major economies that the conflict could trigger a severe energy shock with worldwide economic consequences.
Key Developments
1. Emergency Energy Talks Convened
The International Energy Agency convened an extraordinary meeting of member states to discuss stabilizing global oil markets amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Officials are evaluating a record coordinated release of oil reserves, designed to inject additional supply into global markets and dampen price spikes.
Any release would require consensus among member governments, meaning that even a single objection could delay the decision. Negotiations therefore remain ongoing as countries assess their energy security positions.
2. Potential Release Could Break Historical Records
During the 2022 energy crisis triggered by the Ukraine war, IEA members collectively released about 182 million barrels of oil in two major rounds.
The current proposal could surpass that level significantly, reflecting the scale of concern about disruptions from the Middle East conflict.
Strategic petroleum reserves were designed for exactly these situations—allowing governments to temporarily increase supply during geopolitical emergencies.
However, such interventions are short-term stabilization tools rather than permanent solutions.
3. G7 Nations Signal Support
Political backing for the measure is growing among advanced economies.
Energy ministers from the Group of Seven indicated support for proactive steps to stabilize markets, including the possible use of strategic oil reserves.
The issue is expected to be discussed further during a meeting of G7 leaders chaired by Emmanuel Macron, who has called for coordinated action among major economies.
While the group has not yet formally approved the release, officials suggest broad consensus is forming around the need for intervention.
4. Strait of Hormuz Remains the Key Risk
The crisis is closely tied to instability surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world.
Under normal conditions, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the strait, connecting Gulf producers with global markets.
Any prolonged disruption to shipping through this corridor could:
Trigger major supply shortages
Drive global oil prices significantly higher
Place severe strain on the global economy
Even a massive reserve release may only temporarily offset supply disruptions if the conflict continues.
5. Outreach to Major Energy Consumers
Officials have indicated that discussions may expand beyond IEA members.
Diplomats are exploring possible coordination with major oil-consuming nations such as China and India to ensure broader market stabilization.
Such coordination would reflect the increasingly interconnected nature of global energy markets, where supply shocks affect both Western and emerging economies simultaneously.
Why It Matters
The consideration of a record strategic oil release underscores how serious the geopolitical energy threat has become.
Oil markets are reacting not only to actual disruptions but also to uncertainty about how far the conflict could spread.
When oil supply fears intensify:
Energy prices surge
Inflation pressures increase
Stock markets become volatile
Governments intervene to stabilize economies
Energy shocks therefore remain one of the fastest ways geopolitical crises spread into the global financial system.
Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders
For those monitoring global financial stability, oil price volatility carries major monetary consequences.
Energy price spikes can:
Drive inflation worldwide
Force central banks to tighten monetary policy
Weaken currencies in energy-importing nations
Strengthen commodity-linked economies
Strategic reserve releases can temporarily calm markets, but they also highlight how dependent the global economy remains on stable energy supply routes.
Implications for the Global Reset
Pillar 1: Energy Supply as a Driver of Economic Instability
Energy disruptions have historically triggered major shifts in global economic policy and financial systems.
When oil supply becomes uncertain:
Governments intervene in markets
Strategic reserves become economic tools
Energy security becomes a national priority
These forces often accelerate structural changes in global economic strategy.
Pillar 2: Multipolar Energy Coordination
The potential coordination between IEA nations and major emerging economies highlights the evolving structure of global energy governance.
Instead of a single bloc managing supply crises, multiple economic centers are increasingly involved in stabilizing markets, reflecting a broader shift toward a more multipolar global system.
Conclusion
The International Energy Agency’s consideration of a record strategic oil release reflects the scale of the geopolitical threat now facing global energy markets.
While emergency reserves can help temporarily stabilize prices, their effectiveness ultimately depends on whether tensions in the Middle East begin to ease.
Until then, oil markets are likely to remain volatile as governments and investors navigate one of the most serious energy risks in recent years.
In today’s interconnected economy, when oil flows face disruption, the ripple effects extend across markets, currencies, and global financial stability.
Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive
Sources
~~~~~~~~~~
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Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Wednesday Morning 3-11-26
Lower-Than-Average Demand For US Bonds
Money and Business Economy News - Follow-up The US Treasury Department announced the results of a series of auctions to sell $58 billion in three-year long-term bonds, with subscriptions for the offering falling below average.
The yield on the three-year US bonds was 3.579% of their nominal value, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.55 times.
Lower-Than-Average Demand For US Bonds
Money and Business Economy News - Follow-up The US Treasury Department announced the results of a series of auctions to sell $58 billion in three-year long-term bonds, with subscriptions for the offering falling below average.
The yield on the three-year US bonds was 3.579% of their nominal value, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.55 times.
Last month, the US Treasury sold $58 billion in three-year bonds, yielding 3.518% and with a coverage ratio of 2.62 times the offering value, according to the German news agency DPA.
It is worth noting that the coverage ratio is a measure of demand for bonds, indicating the size of the subscription compared to the size of the offering. The average coverage ratio in the last 10 offerings of three-year bonds was 3.63 times.
The U.S. Treasury Department is scheduled to announce today the results of a $39 billion 10-year bond offering and a $22 billion 30-year bond offering on Thursday. https://www.economy-news.net/content.php?id=66618
US Dollar Drops In Baghdad And Erbil Markets
2026-03-11 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil The US dollar opened Wednesday's trading lower in Iraq, hovering around 154,000 dinars per 100 dollars.
According to a Shafaq News market survey, the dollar traded in Baghdad's Al-Kifah and Al-Harithiya exchanges at 153,850 dinars per 100 dollars, down from the previous session’s 155,500 dinars.
In the Iraqi capital, exchange shops sold the dollar at 154,250 dinars and bought it at 153,250 dinars, while in Erbil, selling prices stood at 153,350 dinars and buying prices at 153,250 dinars.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/US-Dollar-drops-in-Baghdad-and-Erbil-markets-7
Gold Ticks Higher Ahead Of US Inflation Data
2026-03-11 Shafaq News Gold edged higher on Wednesday on safe-haven demand and as a retreat in oil prices calmed inflation worries, reviving expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts this year as investors awaited U.S. CPI data that may offer more cues.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $5,202.10 per ounce, as of 0525 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 0.6% to $5,211.
Oil prices dropped below $90 per barrel on reports of the International Energy Agency proposing the largest release of oil reserves in its history to curb surging prices.
"With these (inflation) concerns having eased... hedging and safe-haven attributes (of gold) has once again come to the fore. So, I think from current levels we remain optimistic," said Nikos Kavalis, Singapore managing director of Metals Focus.
The U.S. and Israel pounded Iran with what the Pentagon and the Iranians on the ground called the most intense airstrikes of the war, despite global markets betting that Trump will seek to end the conflict soon.
The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas, stranding tankers for more than a week and forcing producers to halt output as storage fills, driving energy prices soaring.
Bullion, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, has risen more than 20% so far this year, notching successive record highs amid heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
"I think it's very likely that we'll see gold get to over $6,000 an ounce by the third or fourth quarter this year, probably even higher early next year," Kavalis said.
Markets are now awaiting the U.S. consumer price index for February, due later in the day, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - on Friday.
Investors expect the Fed to keep rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting on March 18 but still see atleast two rate cuts this year, per CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Spot silver edged 0.2% lower to $88.24 per ounce. Spot platinum rose 0.1% to $2,202.52, and palladium rose 0.9% to $1,669.82. (Reuters) https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-ticks-higher-ahead-of-US-inflation-data
Gold Prices Dip In Baghdad, Erbil
2026-03-11 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil On Wednesday, gold prices hovered around 1.12 million IQD per mithqal in Baghdad and Erbil markets, according to a survey by Shafaq News Agency.
Gold prices on Baghdad's Al-Nahr Street recorded a selling price of 1.120 million IQD per mithqal (equivalent to five grams) for 21-carat gold, including Gulf, Turkish, and European varieties, with a buying price of 1.116 million IQD. The same gold had sold for 1.130 million IQD on Tuesday.
The selling price for 21-carat Iraqi gold stood at 1.090 million IQD, while the buying price reached 1.086 million IQD.
In jewelry stores, the selling price per mithqal of 21-carat Gulf gold ranged between 1.120 million and 1.130 million IQD, while Iraqi gold sold for between 1.090 million and 1.100 million IQD.
In Erbil, 22-carat gold was sold at 1.170 million IQD per mithqal, 21-carat gold at 1.117 million IQD, and 18-carat gold at 957,000 IQD. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Gold-prices-dip-in-Baghdad-Erbil-9
Oil Prices Fall On Report Of Record IEA Reserve Release
Economy & BusinessBreakingGlobal Oil
2026-03-11 Shafaq News- Baghdad/ Erbil Oil prices fell on Wednesday after a report that the International Energy Agency is considering the largest release of strategic oil reserves in its history to curb crude prices that surged during the US-Israel-Iran war.
Brent crude futures slipped 23 cents (0.26%) to $87.57 per barrel at 0023 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 37 cents (0.44%) to $83.08 per barrel. https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Oil-prices-fall-on-report-of-record-IEA-reserve-release
Basrah Crude Remains Over $90 Amid Global Fall
2026-03-11 Shafaq News- Basra Basrah crude prices fell on Wednesday alongside global oil markets, with Basrah Heavy dropping to $91.96 per barrel.
Basrah Heavy declined $8.25 (8.28%), while Basrah Medium fell $8.91 (8.8%) to $93.91 per barrel.
Oil prices eased following reports that the International Energy Agency is considering the largest release of strategic oil reserves in its history to cool prices that surged during the US-Israel-Iran war.
Globally, Brent crude stood at $87.57 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate traded at $83.08
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Basrah-crude-remains-over-90-amid-global-fall
Iraq Exports Over 11 Million Tons Of Petroleum Products In 2025
2026-03-11 Shafaq News- Baghdad Iraq exported more than 11.4 million tons of petroleum products in 2025, according to the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO).
The figures showed that Iraq exported a total of 11,414,718 tons of refined petroleum products during the year, including 46,253 tons of jet fuel, 1,122,519 tons of naphtha, and 10,245,946 tons of fuel oil.
Despite being the second-largest crude oil exporter in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iraq both imports and exports some refined petroleum products due to limited and aging refinery capacity. Many of Iraq’s major refineries date back decades.
The Baiji refinery, with a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day, was largely destroyed during the war against ISIS, while the Dora refinery in Baghdad, with a capacity of 140,000 barrels per day, was built in the 1960s.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-exports-over-11-million-tons-of-petroleum-products-in-2025
Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Tuesday Evening 3-10-26
Closing The Strait Of Hormuz Would Deprive Iraq Of Exporting 90% Of Its Oil, With Anticipated Economic And Financial Repercussions
Baghdad Today - Baghdad: Member of Parliament Mohammed Qutaiba Al-Bayati confirmed on Sunday (March 8, 2026) that the repercussions of the ongoing war in the Arabian Gulf region will be clearly visible on the Iraqi economy in the coming period, after the disruption of the majority of oil exports.
Closing The Strait Of Hormuz Would Deprive Iraq Of Exporting 90% Of Its Oil, With Anticipated Economic And Financial Repercussions
Baghdad Today - Baghdad: Member of Parliament Mohammed Qutaiba Al-Bayati confirmed on Sunday (March 8, 2026) that the repercussions of the ongoing war in the Arabian Gulf region will be clearly visible on the Iraqi economy in the coming period, after the disruption of the majority of oil exports.
War And Rising Oil Prices
Al-Bayati told Baghdad Today: “The truth that the public should know is that the current war in the Arabian Gulf, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has deprived Iraq of exporting more than 90% of its crude oil.”
He added that "this will have clear repercussions on the economic and financial situation in the country during the next stage," noting that "Baghdad has not benefited from the clear rise in oil prices, which have exceeded the $90 per barrel mark and may reach $100 in the coming days."
Economic Challenges And Alternative Plans
The member of parliament points out that "the prospect of ending the war is still unknown, and there are even fears that it will expand to include other countries in the region," indicating that "the economic situation in Iraq needs a clear vision and alternative plans to confront potential challenges."
Al-Bayati explains that "it is not possible to determine the nature of the challenges of the next stage in light of the lack of clarity in the direction, but in all cases Iraq is greatly affected, especially since the main export route for the majority of its oil passes through the Arabian Gulf towards the Strait of Hormuz."
Economic experts confirm that oil prices have exceeded $84 per barrel, but if the geopolitical crisis continues or tensions related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz worsen, prices may rise to between $90 and $120 per barrel. https://baghdadtoday.news/294742-90.html
The Dollar Paradox In Iraq: Record Sales Meet Widening Exchange Rate Gaps
Iraq Jawad Al-Samarraie Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) – Economic expert Manar Al-Obaidi has released a comprehensive analysis detailing a significant Dollar Paradox in Iraq’s monetary landscape between 2006 and 2025.
According to the report, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) sold a staggering $884 billion in foreign currency over the past two decades, with a massive $265 billion (30% of the total) occurring between 2022 and 2025 alone.
The year 2025 set a historical record with annual sales reaching $80 billion, marking the first time since 2003 that currency auctions exceeded this threshold. Paradoxically, this period of peak supply also saw the highest disparity between the official and parallel exchange rates, with an average gap of 13.67%—more than double the historical average.
Al-Obaidi anticipates a major shift in 2026 due to the implementation of the ASYCUDA (Automated System for Customs Data) and new pre-calculation mechanisms for customs tariffs.
Sales Reduction: Foreign currency sales are projected to drop by up to 30% in 2026 as geopolitical and economic changes alter the trade equation.
Demand Management: The report argues that increasing the dollar supply has failed to stabilize the parallel market; instead, the government must focus on controlling the demand side by tightening border controls and regulating high-drain imports.
Consumer Patterns: A shift in domestic consumption patterns is deemed essential to reducing the structural reliance on foreign currency for basic goods.
Despite the depreciation of the Dinar in the parallel market, Ministry of Planning data reveals that Iraq achieved a 0% inflation rate in 2025. This anomaly suggests that exchange rate fluctuations are not the sole driver of commodity prices and calls for a more nuanced analysis of market factors.
Al-Obaidi concluded by questioning how CBI sales reached record highs despite increased auditing, bank restrictions, and the suspension of cash sales.
He emphasizes the need for a comprehensive investigation into whether the surge is driven by legitimate import demand or persistent gaps in the regulatory auditing process.https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/iraq-dollar-paradox-cbi-sales-analysis-2026/
Baghdad, US Turn To Iraqi Kurds For Oil Exports As Iran War Hits Supplies
Baghdad wants Kurdish pipelines to move up to 200,000 barrels per day to global markets, but Erbil is demanding relief from a dollar embargo and greater autonomy over trade.
The sun sets behind burning gas flares at the Dora Oil Refinery Complex in Baghdad on Nov. 24, 2025. — AHMAD AL-RUBAYE / AFP via Getty ImagesIraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has appealed to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to help export up to 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) of its crude via a pipeline running to Turkey after Iraq ceased all foreign sales on March 1 due to the US-Israeli war against Iran, Al-Monitor has learned.
Ensuring Iraqi crude reaches world markets is seen as critical by the Trump administration, as Gulf nations targeted by Tehran’s missiles curb production and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
The resulting squeeze in supplies saw the price of oil surge above $100 per barrel on Sunday — before dropping down to around $90 Monday afternoon — with analysts predicting further spikes that could herald the worst crisis since the 1970s.
However, Iraqi Kurdish leaders have said they will let the oil flow only if Iraq agrees to resolve a long-standing dispute over Baghdad’s push to fully control all of the Iraqi Kurdistan region’s foreign trade, KRG officials told Al-Monitor. Many believe they now have the upper hand and are determined to leverage their perceived advantage.
“We need pragmatism in Baghdad. There is a new reality in Iraq. With crossings to Iran closed because of the war, the federal government now depends on Prime Minister Masrour Barzani’s goodwill for imports and oil exports through Turkey,” a senior KRG official speaking on background told Al-Monitor.
US officials have been communicating with Baghdad and Erbil to resolve the dispute in hopes of relieving pressure on the markets, the senior official told Al-Monitor. Acting Assistant Secretary for the Office of International Affairs Tommy Joyce called the KRG’s Washington representative, Treefa Aziz, on Friday, asking her to provide talking points for upcoming discussions with Baghdad relating to the dispute.
An administration official speaking on background confirmed that Washington wants the pipeline to come back on stream.
Another Washington insider involved in discussions about exporting Iraqi crude through Turkey said relevant members of the Trump administration had been focused on the topic for at least the past five days.
The Department of Energy did not respond to Al-Monitor’s request for comment.
On March 1, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil informed the KRG that it would begin exporting 100,000 barrels of crude per day from its Kirkuk fields through a pipeline that links to another in the Kurdistan region that runs to export terminals on Turkey’s southern Mediterranean coast. The KRG refused to let the flow of oil proceed.
On Monday, an increasingly desperate Baghdad appealed to the KRG to allow double the amount — 200,000 bpd — to go through the Kurdish pipeline.
The KRG has laid out several conditions that it says need to be met before it lets the oil flow.
Kurds play hard ball
The immediate standoff centers on Baghdad’s refusal since Jan. 1 to let the KRG and local business people pay dollars for any of their imports. Since 2023, when Baghdad began collecting all the proceeds from the sale of oil produced in the Kurdistan region and exported via Turkey, the KRG has had to increasingly rely on the Central Bank of Iraq to secure dollars.
Trade with Turkey, the KRG’s biggest trading partner, has plummeted since. The average number of trucks crossing the border has gone down from 3,000 a day to around 300 a day, according to KRG data.
Baghdad slapped the dollar embargo because of Erbil’s long-running objections to granting the central government full control over the management of the Kurdistan region’s land borders and airports under a newly introduced scheme that is being rolled out elsewhere across Iraq.
The system, devised by the United Nations and called the Automated System for Customs Data (ASYCUDA), is meant to enforce standardized tariffs, bring stricter supervision and documentation of trade, and therefore ensure greater transparency and prevent corruption.
The KRG insists, however, that the terms of the new model need to be adjusted in line with the KRG’s federal status that is enshrined in the Iraqi constitution. On March 6, Barzani conveyed to Sudani in writing that the KRG would adopt ASYCUDA, but on its own terms. Sudani has yet to respond.
Until recently, Washington had steered clear of the issue, writing it off as just another Baghdad-Erbil squabble.
Iraqi energy officials did not respond to Al-Monitor’s request for comment.
“Our position is clear: dollar relief first, then oil exports,” the senior KRG official said. It remains unclear whether Washington will use its coercive power to get Sudani to fix the KRG’s dollar dilemma or whether it will lean on the KRG instead to let the oil flow.
Iraq Sucked In
Meanwhile, Iran and its Iraqi Shiite militia allies have been targeting the Kurdistan Region of Iraq since the start of the war. The attacks intensified amid reports that the CIA and Israel were involved in a covert effort to arm and train Iranian Kurdish fighters based in Iraqi Kurdistan to help overthrow the Iranian regime. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he did not support the enterprise.
The pro-Iranian Islamic Resistance group in Iraq on Monday claimed responsibility for a drone attack on Erbil airport targeting US forces nearby. The drones were intercepted by US forces, local media reported.
On March 5, a drone struck the Sarsang field in the Kurdistan region, which produces an average of 30,000 barrels of crude per day. It is operated by HKN Energy, a privately owned US company that is part of the Hillwood group, founded by Ross Perot Jr. The attack caused a fire and halted production.
A Kurdish security officer was killed in a March 7 strike on Erbil airport. Barzani called on Baghdad to rein in the attacks, noting that the groups carrying them out were funded and armed by the central government.
Sudani’s failure to halt the assaults has deepened Erbil’s resentment toward him.
The US Embassy in Baghdad was targeted in an unidentified rocket attack over the weekend.
Washington is widely believed to support Sudani’s bid for a second term as rival factions fail to agree on a new prime minister in the wake of parliamentary elections that were held in November.
Reversing Kurdish Autonomy
Iraq has, since 2017, been steadily reasserting central authority over the Kurdistan region, an effort Kurdish officials say is aimed at erasing their autonomy altogether. That year, the KRG held a referendum on independence. It was overwhelmingly approved by a majority of Kurds but sent relations with the central government into an even deeper hole.
Relations between the KRG and Baghdad have long been strained over disputes concerning revenue sharing, particularly related to oil. Baghdad periodically weaponizes the budget against the Kurds, freezing disbursements that are used to pay public worker wages in Iraqi Kurdistan.
“Economic coercion is becoming a powerful lever to pull on the road to asserting Baghdad’s control over Erbil.
There is a systemic pattern of actions by the Iraqi government to force revenue streams to be rerouted through the center,” Ramzy Mardini, founder of Geopol Labs, a risk consultancy firm based in the Middle East, told Al-Monitor.
“This gives the Iraqis unprecedented leverage, which they will most certainly use for political reasons, even to constrain growth and development in the Kurdistan Region,” he said.
“This isn’t motivated by state-building or fiscal transparency. This is a long-running centralization campaign designed to strip away and ultimately erode the autonomy of the Kurdistan Region. The Iraqis are getting better at it, and Washington has grown too partial to Baghdad rather than serve as an honest broker,” Mardini added.
In a further setback for the KRG — and Turkey — an international arbitration court ruled in 2023 that Ankara had violated an existing agreement with Iraq’s central government by selling oil produced in the Kurdistan region since 2014 through a purpose-built pipeline.
Iraq now wants to use that pipeline, which has lain dormant since Feb. 28, when international oil companies ceased all production amid continued Iranian-backed attacks on US bases and oil and gas fields in the Kurdistan region.
The pipeline can accommodate up to 700,000 bpd. It was carrying 250,000 bpd before its closure on Feb. 28 — all of it Iraqi Kurdish crude. Iraq was exporting around 3 million bpd via the Strait of Hormuz before the Iran conflict.
Oil produced in the Kirkuk fields, which Iraq now wants to divert to Turkey, was used for domestic consumption.
Previously, the Kirkuk fields were connected to export terminals via a dual pipeline that runs directly to Turkey. Last July, Turkey issued a decree terminating a 52-year-old agreement under which the oil was exported.
It had already halted the flow in 2023 after the International Court of Arbitration ordered Ankara to cough up $1.5 billion to Baghdad in damages over the unauthorized sales of Kurdish oil.
Iraq is pressing for additional compensation in a separate arbitration case. The lines have a combined capacity to transport 1.5 million bpd.
Should Iraq agree to waive the case and the previous fine that Ankara has so far refused to pay, the pipeline could resume operations, if not at full capacity. Washington may also be pressing for a deal between Baghdad and Ankara.
“Tidbits From TNT” Tuesday 3-10-2026
TNT:
Tishwash: Reuters: Trump is reviewing options today to control oil prices and maintain market stability.
Reuters, citing two sources familiar with the matter, reported that US President Donald Trump is expected to review a range of options today to control oil prices.
The sources explained that the options include “restricting oil exports, intervening in futures markets, and exemption from some federal taxes.”
For her part, the White House spokeswoman confirmed that “we have a strong plan in place to maintain the stability of the energy market.”
TNT:
Tishwash: Reuters: Trump is reviewing options today to control oil prices and maintain market stability.
Reuters, citing two sources familiar with the matter, reported that US President Donald Trump is expected to review a range of options today to control oil prices.
The sources explained that the options include “restricting oil exports, intervening in futures markets, and exemption from some federal taxes.”
For her part, the White House spokeswoman confirmed that “we have a strong plan in place to maintain the stability of the energy market.” link
Tishwash: Political analyst: The Sudanese candidate is the most likely to win a second term after recent political developments.
Political analyst Haider Al-Humaidawi confirmed that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s chances of renewing his term have become the highest at the present stage, in light of the recent political data and internal and external positions related to the file of the next government’s leadership.
Al-Humaidawi said that the political indicators circulating suggest that Al-Sudani has the best chance of leading the government again, especially after the messages that spoke of an American position that was not encouraging for the return of former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki to the position, despite him being one of the most prominent competitors for the premiership.
He added that these developments also coincided with the clarification issued by the head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zaidan, regarding the issue of the “largest bloc,” and the constitutional and political discussions it raised about the mechanisms for forming the next government.
Al-Humaidawi explained that there are other political factors within the coordination framework that enhance Al-Sudani’s chances, noting that some key forces within the coalition have expressed clear reservations about nominating Al-Maliki for the premiership.
He explained that the Sadiqun bloc and the Hikma movement expressed an unenthusiastic stance towards Maliki’s return to the premiership, which, according to his assessment, strengthens the chances of Sudani remaining in office during the next phase.
Al-Humaidawi pointed out that these political indicators make Al-Sudani, in his estimation, the closest candidate to lead the next government by a percentage of up to about 90%, especially in light of the efforts of the Coordination Framework forces to maintain the cohesion of the alliance and avoid entering into an early conflict over the position of Prime Minister.
He concluded by saying that current data suggests that al-Sudani may be "the man of the next phase," unless new political changes occur that reshuffle the cards within political alliances before the upcoming elections. link
***************
Tishwash: Liquidity crisis hits Iraq’s major state banks
"Security concerns" are driving Iraqis to withdraw their money from state-owned banks.
An informed source reported on Monday that state-owned banks in Iraq, particularly Rafidain Bank and Rasheed Bank, are suffering from a severe liquidity crisis and a shortage of cash, with a clear decline in the funds available within those banks.
The source told Shafaq News Agency that "citizens who have deposited money have been withdrawing their funds from government banks recently as a result of security concerns and developments in the region."
He added that these concerns stem from escalating regional tensions, particularly the war between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, and the potential repercussions this could have on the security and economic situation in Iraq.
The source indicated that government banks are still suffering from problems resulting from administrative and legal violations in their work, as they have not witnessed serious steps to develop their banking systems in recent years, as they still rely heavily on paper procedures and traditional methods of work, far from adopting electronic systems and modern banking technologies.
According to him, the lack of efficiency and experience in the management of some government banks, especially Al-Rafidain and Al-Rasheed, along with the slow pace of modernization and development, contributed to their work remaining backward, which negatively affected the level of banking services and the citizens’ confidence in the government banking sector.
The source continued, saying that "some branches of government banks are asking customers to wait or come back later to receive their money in full, while some branches are providing part of the required amount and postponing the delivery of the rest."
This crisis comes amid economic conditions and financial pressures facing the relevant institutions and the government in general, which has directly affected a wide segment of citizens.
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a series of raids on targets inside Iran, including the capital Tehran, resulting in significant damage and civilian casualties, in addition to the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a number of Revolutionary Guard and Army commanders.
Iran responded to the "American-Israeli" attack, resulting in widespread repercussions in the countries of the region, including Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. link
Mot: In-Laws
