The Fed’s 25 Basis Points Rate Cut is Another Mistake

The Fed’s 25 Basis Points Rate Cut is Another Mistake

Peter Schiff:  10-30-2025

The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates and, perhaps even more significantly, pause its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, has sent a clear signal to markets: the Fed is easing up. But is this a prudent response to economic conditions, or a dangerous gamble that will ignite further inflation?

We recently tuned into a detailed discussion with two highly respected voices in the financial world: Peter Schiff, Chief Economist at Europacific Asset Management, and Andy Brener, Global Fixed Income Head at Natal Alliance Securities.

Their analysis unveils a complex picture, with both experts agreeing on a troubling trajectory for the dollar, inflation, and the price of gold.

Unsurprisingly, Peter Schiff, a perennial critic of expansionary monetary policy, didn’t mince words. He lambasted the Fed’s premature halt to rate hikes and their move to cut rates, arguing passionately that inflation remains stubbornly and significantly above target. For Schiff, the central bank is acting as if the battle against inflation is won, while the evidence suggests otherwise.

His core argument is that monetary policy remains far too loose, and the continued “debt monetization” is a root cause of persistent inflation. Schiff points to one stark indicator as undeniable proof of the Fed’s misjudgment: gold trading at a staggering $4,000. This, he asserts, is a clear signal that smart money is losing faith in fiat currencies, particularly the dollar, and bracing for a future of eroding purchasing power.

Brener noted the market’s mixed reactions, including a flattening yield curve and visible dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

These indicators, he suggests, signal that any potential December rate cut could very well be the last for some time, reflecting the deep ideological divides within the Fed itself regarding the appropriate pace and size of rate adjustments.

He also provided valuable technical insight into the end of QT, explaining the Fed’s strategic shift from rolling off mortgages to acquiring Treasury bills. This move aims to reduce the longer-duration assets on its balance sheet, a subtle but significant change in its operational strategy.

Despite their differing analytical lenses, Schiff and Brener find striking common ground on the ultimate trajectory. Both experts agree that the Fed’s current policies are steering the economy towards more inflation, a weaker dollar, and consequently, rising gold prices.

Schiff, ever the outspoken bear on the dollar, predicts a significant rise in gold as the dollar weakens and inflationary pressures persist.

 He forecasts an almost inevitable return to massive Quantitative Easing (QE) from the Fed, forced into action by worsening economic conditions and the inability to tolerate the necessary pain of genuinely tight monetary policy.

The discussion with Peter Schiff and Andy Brener paints a concerning picture for the purchasing power of the dollar and the future of inflation.

While the Fed attempts to navigate a complex economic landscape, these experts suggest its recent actions may carry unforeseen and potentially detrimental consequences. The rising price of gold, particularly the $4,000 mark cited by Schiff, stands as a stark reminder of deep-seated anxieties about monetary policy and economic stability.

Understanding these diverging views and the underlying economic forces at play is crucial for anyone looking to protect their wealth and navigate today’s increasingly volatile financial markets.

https://youtu.be/RgWFX3GI6V8

Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Friday Afternoon 10-31-25

Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps,

Budapest Breakdown: Trump–Putin Talks Collapse Over Ukraine Demands

Geopolitical fractures, financial realignments, and the future of global trade blocs.

Background & Analysis
The cancelled Trump–Putin summit in Budapest marks a critical setback in U.S.–Russia diplomacy. Putin’s insistence on territorial concessions and NATO limits reflects Russia’s broader strategy to cement its Eurasian security sphere.

Moscow’s stance: Secure recognition of annexed regions and reshape post-war trade alignment.

• Washington’s concern: Protect European stability and prevent China–Russia economic deepening.

Why It Matters for Global Finance
This breakdown stalls the emerging East–West financial détente. Russia’s continued alignment with BRICS and de-dollarization efforts reinforces multipolar financial systems (gold settlement, digital ruble trade).

If U.S.–Russia dialogue remains frozen, expect BRICS+ to accelerate independent financial infrastructure — bypassing Western SWIFT and IMF frameworks.

Implications

• Energy markets may fragment further between Western and Eurasian exchanges.

• Gold-backed settlement systems gain leverage as sanctions deepen.

• Global alliances pivot toward a trade-based peace model — not military negotiation.

This is not just politics — it’s global finance restructuring before our eyes.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources:

• Modern Diplomacy (Oct 31, 2025):

• Financial Times and Reuters

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Gaza’s Silent Crisis: Peace Without Liquidity

The guns are quiet, but Gaza’s cash-starved banks expose the next phase of global monetary realignment.

A Fragile Peace Meets Financial Collapse

As Gaza’s ceasefire takes hold after two years of war, its residents now face a different kind of siege — a total collapse of liquidity.
Banks reopened on October 16, yet most are shells of their former selves — their vaults empty, their systems dependent on intermittent electricity, and their customers desperate to withdraw even a few shekels.

• No physical currency: Israel continues to block cash transfers into Gaza.

• Damaged financial infrastructure: Dozens of branches were destroyed during the conflict.

• Private withdrawal commissions reach as high as 40 percent, effectively monetizing desperation.

• Trump’s peace framework offered no roadmap for restoring Gaza’s banking access, leaving humanitarian aid trapped in digital form.

With inflation spiking and barter returning as a survival mechanism, Gaza’s financial paralysis is now shaping up as a case study in the risks of cashless fragility under geopolitical control.

The Financial Dimension Behind the Ceasefire

This is not only a humanitarian or political crisis — it is a collapse of financial sovereignty.

• Currency control as leverage: By halting banknote inflows, Israel and its allies control not just security conditions but economic survival — showing how liquidity itself has become a geopolitical weapon.

• Digital dependency without infrastructure: Electronic transfers require stable power, telecom, and fees — all scarce in Gaza, creating a paradox of “digital access without financial inclusion.”

• Shadow markets emerge: Private traders are now acting as informal banks, converting remittances or salaries into physical cash at steep markups.

• Reconstruction frozen: With no functioning liquidity, aid funds remain unspent, halting rebuilding projects and distorting the regional supply chain.

Why It Matters for the Global Financial Reset

The Gaza case highlights a deeper global trend: the weaponization and fragility of monetary systems in conflict zones.
As nations move toward digital currencies and programmable payment systems, control over access becomes as important as control over value.

• Liquidity is power: The ability to turn digital balances into spendable money defines who participates in recovery.

• Programmable finance risks exclusion: Centralized digital settlement systems, if politically controlled, can replicate Gaza’s problem on a global scale — peace without prosperity.

• Parallel humanitarian rails emerging: Efforts by BRICS and non-aligned nations to develop alternative cross-border payment systems now double as tools for crisis resilience, not just de-dollarization.

• Gaza as precedent: Future sanctions or post-conflict economies may face similar liquidity quarantines, prompting calls for sovereign digital frameworks independent of geopolitical gatekeepers.

In short, Gaza’s liquidity famine exposes how financial infrastructure — not just diplomacy — underpins peace, reconstruction, and sovereignty.

The Broader Restructuring Picture

• Middle East integration and BRICS+ dialogue may push for regional reconstruction banks denominated in mixed currencies.

• Aid settlement reforms through tokenized humanitarian credits are being tested by the UN and African Development Bank — models that could bypass physical-cash barriers.

• Global reset linkage: As Western systems centralize control through sanctions and oversight, non-Western alliances are responding by building redundancy into settlement networks — creating a bifurcated global finance system that Gaza’s crisis now exemplifies.

Conclusion

The guns have gone silent, but Gaza’s empty banks speak volumes.
In the new world order of digital settlement and political gatekeeping, access to liquidity may become the next frontier of sovereignty.
For policymakers and financial architects of the coming reset, the lesson is clear — stability without circulation is not stability at all.

This is not just politics — it’s global finance restructuring before our eyes.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources: 

• Modern Diplomacy (Oct 31 2025) – “Gaza’s Ceasefire Brings Calm, But No Cash as Banks Reopen Empty.”

• Reuters – “As the guns fall silent, Gazans find newly‑reopened banks have no cash” (Oct 31 2025)

• Bloomberg – ” The closest relevant article is “How Gaza Descended Into a Hunger Crisis” 

• Al Jazeera – “Ceasefire in Gaza: A fragile calm amid unending struggle” 

~~~~~~~~~

The Algorithmic CFO: How Technology Is Re-Wiring Finance Operations

AI, automation, and real-time data are turning the back office into the strategy hub of global finance.

A quiet revolution is underway inside corporate finance departments.
No longer confined to quarterly reports and spreadsheets, the modern finance function is becoming an intelligent, predictive engine — driven by artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and continuous analytics.

🔹 From Bookkeeping to Real-Time Intelligence

Finance teams are shifting from recording the past to forecasting the future:

• AI-powered forecasting models deliver near-instant insight into cash flow, risk exposure, and capital needs.

• Cloud-based ERP systems link data across subsidiaries, creating a unified financial view in real time.

• Automation of reconciliation and compliance tasks frees analysts for higher-value decision-making.

🔹 CFOs at the Core of Digital Strategy

The new CFO role extends far beyond budgets:

• Data governance now defines financial credibility — clean data is becoming the new audit standard.

• Cyber-resilience joins balance-sheet strength as a measure of financial stability.

• Finance and IT convergence is emerging as a new executive discipline in the digital corporation.

🔹 The End of the Monthly Report

Traditional reporting cycles are being replaced by continuous monitoring:

• Embedded analytics dashboards give real-time performance visibility.

• Predictive scenario modeling allows proactive responses to shocks, not reactive fixes.

• AI-driven controls reduce human error and accelerate close processes.

🔹 Strategic Implications

Companies that integrate technology into finance operations gain:

• Speed — faster insight means faster strategy.

• Accuracy — automation minimizes reporting risk.

• Resilience — real-time oversight supports stronger governance and investor confidence.

Bottom Line:
The digitalization of finance is not just an IT upgrade — it is a structural shift in how organizations perceive and execute their fiscal strategy. The CFO of 2025 is no longer a gatekeeper of numbers, but a designer of systems.

This is not just politics — it’s global finance restructuring before our eyes.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Source:  

• Deloitte — “2025 Revisited: Future Finance Trends” (highlighting automation, big data, predictive modelling in finance operations). 

• Deloitte — “A CFO’s Guide to Tech Trends 2025” (focus on CFO-relevant technologies including AI, core systems modernization). 

• Deloitte — “2025 Financial Services Industry Outlooks” (industry-wide look at technology and operational transformation in finance-related functions). 

~~~~~~~~~

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“Tidbits From TNT” Friday 10-31-2025

TNT:

Tishwash:  The Central Bank of Iraq obtains the international business continuity certificate (ISO 22301:2019

Under the patronage of His Excellency the Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, Mr. Ali Mohsen Al-Allaq, the Central Bank organized a celebration on the occasion of the Total Quality Management Department obtaining the ISO 22301:2019 international conformity certificate for the Business Continuity Management System, issued by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), after the actual application of the system requirements in the Bank’s Investment Department.

The ceremony was attended by Deputy Governor Dr. Ammar Hamad Khalaf, Professor Yaqoub Yousef, Head of the National Quality Team, the Director of Quality at the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers, Dr. Areej Saeed, Head of the Department of Business Administration Technologies at the University of Baghdad, and Mr. Ammar Hussein, Director of the Total Quality Management Department.

During the ceremony, the international conformity certificate was handed over to the Total Quality Management Department, and the team was honored with a commemorative shield from His Excellency the Governor, in appreciation of their outstanding efforts in establishing a culture of institutional quality and achieving this qualitative accomplishment.

The implementation of the business continuity system comes within the framework of the Central Bank of Iraq’s strategic plan for the years 2024-2026, as one of the main pillars in enhancing institutional readiness and ensuring the continuity of vital operations and financial services in various circumstances, which enhances confidence in the bank’s ability to perform its tasks with high efficiency and flexibility. 

Central Bank of Iraq - link

Tishwash:  Central Bank's Precautionary Foreign Reserves

In line with the strategy and principle of disclosure and transparency that the Central Bank operates on in its internal and international banking transactions.

The monetary policy indicators up to the first half of 2025 show that foreign exchange reserves reached around $100 billion, which covers the issued local currency, which amounts to around 98.4 trillion dinars, which recorded a decrease of 3.8% compared to the same period of 2024.

The decrease in the issued local currency contributed to a decrease in the inflation rate to 0.8%, a decrease of 76% compared to 2024, and had a significant impact on maintaining the general price level.

Furthermore, foreign reserves at their current level are sufficient to cover 18 months of imports. In addition, there is a gold reserve of 167 tons, ranking fourth in the Arab world and thirtieth globally according to the World Gold Council.

This constitutes an important part of Iraq's foreign reserves, recording a significant growth rate of 55% up to the first half of 2025, reaching a value of 22.8 trillion dinars compared to 14.7 trillion dinars in the second half of 2024. The safe investments of these reserves have contributed significantly to the growth of investment portfolios, accompanied by a healthy growth in returns to these portfolios.

We emphasize here that the growth rates achieved in foreign reserves were consistent with the Central Bank’s plan to enhance returns and build capabilities in the field of self-management of reserves

Which enabled the establishment of international banking relationships and the entry into agreements and memoranda of understanding with classified international banks, reputable financial institutions, international financing and consulting organizations, the Arab Monetary Fund, and international institutions concerned with investment management, and contributed to helping our banks build international banking relationships with correspondent banks in accordance with the Central Bank’s plan to regulate foreign trade financing and implement the comprehensive banking reform program. link

************

Tishwash:  Iraq signs contracts with international companies regarding the development road

Minister of Transport Razzaq Muhaibis Al-Saadawi announced today, Friday, that the ministry is in the process of contracting with a third party to audit the technical company responsible for the Development Road, noting that this road is an integrated economic project targeting 8 sectors.

Al-Saadawi stated in a press release that "the Ministry of Transport has worked to overcome the challenges in the Development Road project by utilizing foreign expertise," noting that "this is a strategic and large-scale project, the first of its kind in Iraq, and therefore foreign expertise is necessary."

He added that "the Ministry has engaged technical consultants from the Italian company BTP, and also engaged financial and economic consultants from the American company Oliver Wyman. Furthermore, a contract was signed with the American company KBR to audit Oliver Wyman," indicating that "the Ministry is currently in the process of contracting with an auditor or a third party to audit the technical company."

Al-Saadawi explained that "this road is an integrated economic project targeting eight sectors, and several countries are interested in participating in the project," confirming that "a high-level committee and a commission are planned to be formed to manage the Development Road project."

The “Development Road” is a road and railway that extends from Iraq to Türkiye and its ports, with a length of 1200 kilometers inside Iraq.

The "Development Road" is one of the most important pillars for linking Türkiye with Iraq and the Gulf, and is considered one of the shortest routes that connect the Gulf with Europe  link

Mot: This Thingy bout Texting and …..

Mot: Getting Tough Out There - It Is!!! 

Mot: Check on your friends ladies. Some are still learning to drive a stick.

Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Friday Morning 10-31-25

Good Morning Dinar Recaps,

How the Trump–Xi APEC Truce Rewires Trade — and What It Means for the Global Financial Reset

One-year pauses on rare-earth curbs and export restrictions, tariff roll-backs, and resumed commodity purchases soothe markets — but don’t erase structural rivalry.

A tactical detente at APEC has eased immediate market stress, but the deeper re-wiring of global finance and alliances is only accelerated — not reversed.

After a nearly two-hour meeting on the sidelines of APEC in South Korea, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a tactical trade truce: China agreed to pause planned rare-earth export curbs for one year and to resume large purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, while the U.S. signalled tariff reductions and a one-year suspension or delay of certain export-control and entity-list expansions. These moves calmed supply-chain fears and briefly eased market volatility. 

Background — what was actually agreed

• Rare-earth exports paused for one year: Beijing agreed not to implement newly announced export curbs on critical rare-earth minerals for an initial one-year period, giving manufacturers time to plan and suppliers time to adjust. 

• Tariff adjustments and trade purchases: Washington announced targeted tariff reductions and secured renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other commodities, intended to rebalance bilateral trade pressures. 

• Delay/suspension of export-control expansions: U.S. officials indicated a pause or delay in expanding harsher export controls or entity-list restrictions for roughly one year, a concession tied to the leaders’ understanding. 

These were tactical, time-bound steps — not a comprehensive strategic accord on technology, security, Taiwan, or long-term industrial policy. Reuters and multiple analysts described the meeting as a temporary truce rather than a full reset. 

Why this matters to the new global finance system

• Stabilizes key input markets (short term): Rare earths underpin magnets, EV motors, electronics and defence supply chains. A one-year pause reduces immediate scarcity premiums, cooling asset-price and supply-chain shocks that would otherwise push firms toward accelerated decentralization of suppliers and alternative settlement systems. 

• Buys time for strategic positioning: The pause gives both capitals and firms breathing room to negotiate supply-chain diversification, domestic capacity build-outs, and financing arrangements — but it also creates a one-year runway where parallel systems (BRICS settlement rails, gold-linked arrangements, tokenized trade pilots) can mature. 

• Reduces near-term pressure for financial bifurcation — but not the trend: Markets welcomed the truce (commodity and equity moves reflected relief), yet the underlying drivers of financial multipolarity — regulatory divergence, regional payment rails, and strategic industrial policy — remain. That means capital allocation and reserve management choices (currency mix, gold, reserves in regional banks) will continue to shift.

• Regulatory and entity-list pauses reshape financing windows: Delays to sanctions/controls temporarily reopen technology and capital flows to some firms — easing funding stresses for multinational projects — while policymakers and private actors use the window to accelerate alternative infrastructure (e.g., non-dollar settlement channels, local currency swap lines). 

Strategic implications for alliances and global architecture

• U.S. leverage regained tactically; China preserves strategic options. Washington gains short-term relief in supply chains and domestic price pressure; Beijing secures time to scale domestic processing and to diversify export partners. Neither side gave up core leverage — they merely rebooted a negotiating clock.

• BRICS and regional blocs speed up parallel finance initiatives: A tactical U.S.–China truce reduces immediate urgency for some governments to decouple, but geopolitical competition still incentivizes alternative clearing, trade settlement and reserve arrangements — a parallel architecture that can coexist with renewed U.S.–China commerce. 

• Private markets and corporates win a planning window: Multinationals get a one-year horizon to adjust contracts, hedge strategies and sourcing — a pragmatic benefit that can temporarily soften capital flight into havens or strategic relocation. 

Why this leads to restructuring, not reversal

• Time-bound deals don’t undo structural policy choices. Even if rare-earth curbs are paused, China’s prior expansion of controls and investment into processing capacity remain. Markets — and states — will re-price longer-term political risk, accelerating investments in domestic mining, recycling, and substitutes. 

• A tactical truce accelerates the shape of the reset. Rather than forcing immediate decoupling, the truce allows both sides to coordinate staging: the West can continue gradual reshoring and alliance-based procurement, while China can pursue parallel financial rails and strategic commodity partnerships — both paths change who controls critical flows and how capital is allocated globally. 

What to watch next

• Follow-through mechanics: Are the rare-earth pauses and tariff cuts written into enforceable MOUs, or are they purely declaratory? Legal detail matters for markets. 

• One-year horizon policy moves: Expect both capitals to make domestic legislative and industrial moves during the pause — increased mining permits, subsidies, or export-processing investments. 

• BRICS and alternative settlement progress: If Russia, India or other partners accelerate non-dollar settlement or gold-linked swaps during the truce, the global financial architecture could bifurcate quietly while trade resumes. 

This is not just politics — it’s global finance restructuring before our eyes.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources:

• Reuters — China agrees to one-year rare earth export deal, issue ‘settled’ says Trump. 

• Reuters — Trump-Xi 'amazing' summit brings tactical truce, not major reset. 

• Reuters — Trump shaves China tariffs in deal with Xi on fentanyl, rare earths. 

• Reuters — US delays expansion of export restrictions on Chinese firms after Trump-Xi meeting, Bessent says. 

• Al Jazeera — Trump-Xi meeting: Key takeaways (truce on tariffs and rare earths). 

• Atlantic Council — Experts react: What does the Trump-Xi meeting mean for trade, technology, security, and beyond? (analysis & expert views). 

~~~~~~~~~

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MilitiaMan and Crew: IQD News Update-ISO 22301 EXPLOSIVE-EXCHANGE RATE RELATED

MilitiaMan and Crew: IQD News Update-ISO 22301 EXPLOSIVE-EXCHANGE RATE RELATED

10-30-2025

The Crew:  Samson, PompeyPeter, Petra, Daytrader, Sunkissed, GIGI and Militia Man

Follow MM on X == https://x.com/Slashn

Be sure to listen to full video for all the news……..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHANotDc0kM

Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Thursday Evening 10-30-25

Good Evening Dinar Recaps,

Cross-Border Payments & Modernisation — Real-time, Intelligent, Interoperable

Why payments infrastructure is finally becoming the plumbing of the new global reset

Overview
Cross-border payments are undergoing a deep transformation — from slow, opaque, siloed rails to near-instant, high-visibility, smart networks. This change is not just about convenience; it is foundational for a multipolar financial system in which settlement, transparency and speed matter more than legacy incumbency. 

Key developments

• Real-time payment systems and ISO 20022 messaging standards are being adopted widely: improved data, interoperability and reduced reconciliation friction.

• Solutions like SWIFT GPI enable end-to-end tracking of cross-border flows — nearly 60 % of payments credited within 30 minutes, with full delivery within 24 hours. 

• Emerging rails (digital assets, fintech-led routing, programmable accounts) allow payments to reroute dynamically for speed, cost or regulatory advantage. 

What this means for global alliances

• Payment interoperability = alliance interoperability: When major blocs (e.g., BRICS, ASEAN, G7) adopt common messaging or rail standards, they deepen economic alignment.

• Settlement preference as alignment tool: Countries that connect quickly and transparently to modern rails may become preferred trade partners, pushing others into less-connected legacy networks.

• Infrastructure diplomacy: Payment-network governance becomes strategic: who controls node access, routing rules, data visibility becomes part of alliance bargaining.

How this accelerates financial restructuring

• By reducing frictions and latency, the system lowers the cost of doing business across borders — enabling multi-currency and non-dollar settlement to gain traction.

• The greater transparency and real-time nature enable alternative financial ecosystems to emerge that are less reliant on U.S.-centric rails and more regionally autonomous.

• The shift from bank-centrism to rail-centrism means the locus of power moves: from large global banks to protocol/governance owners of payment infrastructure.

Practical signals to watch

• Announcements of new payment-rail alliances, cross-border wallet/funds-transfer hubs, or major banks switching to modern messaging standards (e.g., ISO 20022).

• Countries signing mutual recognition of payment infrastructures or digital-asset settlement links across jurisdictions.

• Reports of major companies routing large cross-border flows via newer rails (digital, wallet-to-wallet) rather than traditional correspondent banking.

Bottom line:
Payments may seem a technical detail — but they are the foundation of global economic exchange. Modern, real-time, interoperable networks are reshaping how money moves, who it moves through and which alliances get preferred access.
This is not just politics — it’s global finance restructuring before our eyes.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources:

• Finastra – Modernising Cross-Border Payments for a Competitive Advantage

• J.P. Morgan – Cross-Border Payment Modernisation

• SWIFT GPI – Real-Time Cross-Border Payments

• DNB Speech – Cross-Border Implications of Modernising Payment Systems

~~~~~~~~~

Malaysia’s BRICS Bid Gains China–Brazil Backing Amid Trump’s Asian Trade Push

Strategic alliances reshape Southeast Asia’s position in the emerging global financial architecture.

BRICS Expansion Accelerates

Malaysia’s bid for full BRICS membership gained significant traction this week, following public endorsements from China, Brazil, and Russia — three of the bloc’s founding members.
The coordinated support suggests that Malaysia’s full entry into BRICS by 2025 is increasingly probable, marking a milestone in the bloc’s Southeast Asian expansion.

• Brazilian President Lula da Silva affirmed Brazil’s backing during the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, calling Malaysia’s entry “a natural step for deeper South–South integration.”

• China’s Foreign Ministry echoed support, emphasizing that Malaysia “shares BRICS’ cooperative goals and development vision.”

• Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk confirmed alignment, noting Malaysia’s “strategic fit within emerging global frameworks.”

If successful, Malaysia would become the second ASEAN nation with full BRICS membership, following Indonesia — strengthening the bloc’s economic footprint in Asia.

Strategic Implications for Southeast Asia

Malaysia’s accession would effectively anchor BRICS influence along the Malacca Strait, one of the world’s most critical trade and energy corridors.
The move signals a shift from dependency on Western-led systems to diversified, multipolar partnerships blending BRICS finance, trade, and digital settlement initiatives.

• Enhanced participation in de-dollarized trade settlements.

• Access to BRICS development financing, alternative to the IMF/World Bank model.

• Expansion of digital infrastructure cooperation, aligning with China’s Belt and Road and Brazil’s south–south fintech programs.

Together, these could accelerate regional integration under a shared digital and resource-backed trade framework.

Trump’s Trade Diplomacy in Malaysia

At the same time, former President Donald Trump’s diplomatic travels through Asia — including Malaysia — have centered on reviving U.S. trade influence in a region increasingly tied to BRICS and China-led frameworks.
During his meetings in Kuala Lumpur, Trump’s delegation emphasized bilateral trade incentives and re-industrialization partnerships, especially in semiconductor and rare earth sectors.

However, these talks occur amid the very BRICS expansion that the U.S. aims to offset.
Trump’s pragmatic strategy appears to position U.S. alliances as complementary rather than adversarial, creating new trade routes that could still integrate with BRICS-linked systems under different governance models.

Global Financial Implications

The Malaysia–BRICS development ties directly into the broader realignment of global finance:

• The inclusion of Malaysia strengthens BRICS’ claim over nearly half of global GDP (PPP).

• Expansion of cross-border digital payment corridors could integrate ASEAN and BRICS via programmable, asset-linked systems.

• A multi-node financial network is emerging — where sovereign trade alliances, real assets, and digital currencies converge outside the traditional Western banking structure.

This mirrors the ongoing global financial restructuring: a transition away from centralized, dollar-dominant systems toward a distributed, multipolar trade and finance ecosystem.

Why It Matters

Malaysia’s advancement toward full BRICS membership — backed by China, Brazil, and Russia — represents more than diplomatic symbolism.
It marks the consolidation of a new financial geography where trade, technology, and sovereignty are integrated through multi-aligned partnerships rather than a single hegemonic axis.

This, alongside Trump’s parallel trade diplomacy in Asia, suggests not decoupling but restructuring — the scaffolding of a global economic reset now taking shape across both blocs.

This is not just politics — it’s global finance restructuring before our eyes. 

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Source:

• Watcher.Guru – “BRICS New Members: China & Brazil Back Malaysia’s Full Entry”

~~~~~~~~~

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Iraq Economic News and Points To Ponder Thursday Afternoon 10-30-25

Iraq Is Second... 29 Million Barrels Of Oil Imported By America From OPEC

Energy  Economy News - Follow-up   The U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed on Thursday that the United States imported more than 20 million barrels of oil from OPEC countries in July, with Iraq being the second largest exporter among these countries.  According to statistics from the administration, the volume of US crude oil imports reached 29.933 million barrels in July 2025.

It indicated that Iraq came second among OPEC countries in terms of oil exports, with a quantity of 9.825 million barrels, while Saudi Arabia came first with exports of 9.996 million barrels, followed by Nigeria in third place with 3.768 million barrels.

Algeria came in fourth with 2.112 million barrels, followed by Libya with 2.011 million barrels, Gabon with 678,000 barrels, Kuwait with 650,000 barrels, and then Venezuela in eighth place with 175,000 barrels.

The administration noted that the remaining member states, Congo, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, did not export any oil to America in July.   https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=61758

Government Advisor: Adopting A Loan Default Insurance Policy Represents A Qualitative Shift In The Lending Structure

Money and Business  Economy News – Baghdad  The Prime Minister’s financial advisor, Mazhar Muhammad Saleh, confirmed on Thursday that the Cabinet’s recent decision to adopt an insurance policy against default on payments instead of a guarantor for housing loans for employees represents a qualitative shift in the structure of bank lending towards enhancing financial inclusion and simplifying procedures.

Saleh said that “the Cabinet’s decision to adopt an insurance policy against default on payments instead of a guarantor in housing loans for employees whose salaries are deposited represents a qualitative shift in the structure of bank lending towards enhancing financial inclusion and simplifying the procedures addressed by the government program, and is an important aspect of the economic reform process in its financial and banking aspects.”

He added: “Therefore, adopting the insurance policy constitutes a double guarantee, as it gives the citizen ease in obtaining the loan without a guarantor, and at the same time provides banks with full protection from the risks of default, which speeds up the lending cycle and increases the efficiency of Iraq’s financial system.”

He pointed out that "this step will positively impact investment in the housing sector by increasing demand for housing units and stimulating the construction and building industries, which will contribute to reducing costs and prices as a result of expanding supply and growing competition."

He explained that “the insurance policy will open up broad horizons for national insurance companies to achieve regular returns from insurance premiums, which will lead to a revival of the insurance business environment and an expansion of its products within the framework of developing the national financial market, and that such a transformation will establish an effective partnership or integration between the banking system and the insurance sector within what is known globally as (bancassurance).”

He added that “adopting the insurance policy instead of the guarantor is not just an administrative procedure, but a structural reform in the national financing system that supports the construction and housing sectors, stimulates the labor market, and at the same time lays the foundations for financial and economic integration that contributes to achieving the goals of sustainable development and is consistent with the principles and objectives of the National Development Plan 2024-2028.”

He noted that “the insurance policy referred to in the Cabinet’s decision is an insurance guarantee that covers the bank against the risk of the borrower not paying the loan installments for any reason (such as death, total disability, loss of employment, or any force majeure circumstances that prevent payment), but under this policy the borrower pays a simple insurance premium once or annually according to the insurance requirements, and in return the insurance company undertakes to pay the remaining amount of the loan to the bank in the event that the borrower defaults on payment for force majeure reasons, and coverage for the risks of payment continues throughout the entire loan term.” https://economy-news.net/content.php?id=61763

Global Oil Prices Decline

Economy | 08:05 - 30/10/2025  Mawazine News – Economy  Brent crude futures fell three cents, or 0.05%, to $64.89 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 11 cents, or 0.18%, to $60.37 a barrel.
https://www.mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=269353

The Dollar Remained Stable At The Close Of Weekly Trading.

Economy | 11:21 - 30/10/2025  Mawazin News - Baghdad:  The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar has witnessed remarkable stability in local markets.   The selling price reached 142,000 dinars per 100 dollars, while the buying price reached 140,000 dinars per 100 dollars.  https://www.mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=269372

For current and reliable Iraqi news please visit:  https://www.bondladyscorner.com

Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Thursday Afternoon 10-30-25

Good Afternoon Dinar Recaps,

Shadow Credit Shock: How Hidden Bank Links to Private Debt Threaten Global Stability  

As banks quietly bankroll private-credit giants, regulators warn that the next liquidity crunch may already be inside the system.  

Overview
Regulated banks are increasingly exposed to the booming private-credit (non-bank) sector — through credit lines, term loans, and other facilities. This growth brings potential contagion channels and liquidity mismatches that could stress alliances and financial architecture.

Key developments

• U.S. banks hold roughly $79 billion in revolving credit lines and around $16 billion in term loans to private-credit vehicles as of Q4 2024; while bank exposure to other NBFIs stands at $2.2 trillion.

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other regulators are warning that exposures to private credit — via linkages with buy-out firms and private-equity backed companies — pose financial-stability risks. 

• Many banks struggle to map overlapping exposures where they co-lend alongside private-credit funds, or where one borrower sits in multiple liability chains — creating hidden leverage. 

• Recent banking-stock sell-offs in the U.S. occurred after auto-finance bankruptcies (e.g., firms backed by private-credit lenders) renewed investor anxiety about underwriting quality.

What this means for global alliances

• Risk mutualisation across systems: As banks in different jurisdictions lend into private-credit structures, shocks in one region (e.g., U.S. sub-segments) can propagate globally — forcing cooperative regulatory responses.

• Alignment of regulatory regimes: Countries must coordinate oversight of private-credit linkages and bank exposures — alliances may form around shared standards (rather than purely geographic blocs).

• Financial-system hedges and alternatives: With banks exposed, states and major financial hubs may push for settlement systems and credit facilities that reduce reliance on opaque bank-channels — potentially favouring alternative infrastructures.

How this accelerates financial restructuring

• The growing opacity of private-credit exposures highlights the need for new transparency, monitoring, and settlement frameworks beyond classical banking channels — reinforcing the case for multiple clearing/settlement systems.

• Capital will increasingly flow toward jurisdictions and institutions perceived as less exposed to these cross-links — shifting funding patterns and re-allocating financial centre prominence.

• The fragmentation in credit-intermediation channels supports the emergence of dual (or multiple) financial ecosystems: one anchored in traditional bank networks, another in less regulated, fund-based networks with linkages to trade and state-backed finance.

Practical signals to watch

• Announcements of large bank exposures to private-credit vehicles or borrowings by major private-credit funds.

• Regulatory commentary or investigations focussed on bank–private credit fund linkages in major finance centres (e.g., U.S., Europe, Asia).

• Movements in bank equity spreads, non-bank lending growth, and signs of leveraged credit facilities tightening.

Bottom line:
The intersection of banks and private-credit markets is no longer a niche issue — it has become a structural fault line in the financial system. Financial alliances and infrastructure will increasingly be defined by who sits outside traditional bank-fund channels as much as by who remains inside.
This is not just politics — it’s global finance restructuring before our eyes.                                                                                      

Seeds of Wisdom Team

• Federal Reserve – Bank Lending to Private Credit: Size, Characteristics, and Financial-Stability Implications

• Boston Fed – Could the growth of private credit pose a risk to financial system stability?

• Guardian – Head of IMF says risks in private credit market keep her awake at night

• MarketWatch – Banks’ exposure to private credit may pose contagion risk

• Reuters – Global bank stocks slide on credit worries, U.S. lenders eke out gains

~~~~~~~~~
Metals as the New Money Signal: Gold Now Mirrors Liquidity Cracks in the Global System  

Gold’s surge beyond $4,000 isn’t just a flight to safety — it’s a flashing warning light for global funding stress and the birth of metal-backed finance.  

Overview
Precious and industrial metals are increasingly responding not just to inflation or geopolitics but to liquidity dynamics and financial-system risk. Sharp swings in metals markets reflect cracks in funding and settlement systems. 

Key developments

• A spike in the U.S. Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) relative to the Fed’s Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) signals acute funding stress; this in turn has triggered short-term volatility in gold and silver. 

• Analysts argue that the recent rally in gold (above $4,000/oz) is driven less by geopolitics and more by global-liquidity expansion and funding-stress hedging. 

• Commentary warns that liquidity squeezes can hit metals quickly then fade as policy intervenes — yet the underlying structural trend remains. 

What this means for global alliances

• Hard-asset coordination: Countries and regional blocs with strong metal reserves (or metal-settlement facilities) can play a coordination role in a multipolar financial order.

• Settlement hedges: Metals become part of trade-settlement strategies as states diversify from purely fiat or dollar-based systems — alliances may form around shared metal-backed frameworks.

• Liquidity-network blocs: States with access to deep funding markets and metal-backed liquidity may attract capital and trade flows away from those without these buffers — realigning economic alliances.

How this accelerates financial restructuring

• The re-role of metals from “safe-asset” to settlement collateral and liquidity gauge supports a restructuring of the global financial architecture: hard-assets underpin digital and traditional finance alike.

• Liquidity-stress episodes that show up in metals signal the need for parallel funding and settlement systems outside the over-leveraged bank-centre infrastructure.

• Investment flows increasingly favour jurisdictions with transparent metal-settlement chains and central-bank participation — shifting the geography of financial power.

Practical signals to watch

• Further sharp moves in SOFR, IORB or comparable short-term funding rates.

• Announcements of metal-backed settlement corridors, metal-tokenisation initiatives or joint metal-reserve holdings.

• Spreads between metal prices and implied hedge/funding-cost measures (e.g., gold-carry, vault-premiums).

Bottom line:
Metals are often portrayed as safe-havens. But today they are also symptoms and participants in the new liquidity architecture — bridging funding systems, national-reserve strategy, and settlement infrastructure.
This is not just politics — it’s global finance restructuring before our eyes.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources:

• FXEmpire – Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver: How Fed Liquidity Stress Could Trigger Pullback

• FXStreet – Keep your eye on the ball: Metals, liquidity, Fed pivot

• Discovery Alert – How Global Liquidity Drives Record Gold Prices in 2025

~~~~~~~~~
Seeds of Wisdom Team RV Currency Facts Youtube and Rumble

Newshound's News Telegram Room Link

Follow the Gold/Silver Rate COMEX

Follow Fast Facts

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Thank you Dinar Recaps

Seeds of Wisdom RV and Economics Updates Thursday Morning 10-30-25

Good Morning Dinar Recaps,

Trump’s Trade Deals in Asia — Strategic Trade Meets Financial Settlement

Why the latest U.S. trade pacts in Asia matter for the global financial reset

Overview
Donald Trump’s recent trade agreements with Southeast Asian nations (notably Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam and frameworks with Thailand) illustrate how economic diplomacy is being used to recast alliance structures in Asia — and by extension, to reposition access to global trade and financial networks. 

Key developments

• On October 26 2025, the U.S. finalised trade deals with Malaysia and Cambodia, covering about 68 % of U.S.–ASEAN two-way trade.

• The pacts include provisions for export-controls, investment-screening, and tariff concessions tied to broader strategic goals (implicitly directed at China). 

• The U.S. also struck a one-year trade truce with Xi Jinping’s China on the sidelines of the APEC summit (October 30 2025), easing trade-war risk and injecting new momentum into regional realignments. 

What this means for global alliances

• Trade deals as alliance currency: The U.S. uses access and concessions in trade to cement partnerships and counter competing blocs (e.g., China-ASEAN, BRICS).

• Financial settlement risk and loyalty: Countries aligned with U.S. trade architecture may gain preferential access to dollar-flows, debt markets and settlement rails — reinforcing the trade-finance-alliance triangle.

• Regional realignment: Southeast Asia may pivot from being primarily China-linked to diversifying toward U.S. and Western networks — changing trade-ecosystem risks and rewards.

How this accelerates financial restructuring

• Stronger U.S. trade ties with strategic partners allow the U.S. to remain central in settlement systems, yet the incentive for others to build parallel systems rises if they feel excluded.

• As trade deals are increasingly tied to economic security and tech supply-chains, settlement systems upgrade to reflect those linkages — making trade and finance inseparable in the new architecture.

• We are seeing a dual-track system: one anchored in the U.S./West trade-finance model and one emerging from Asia-Pacific/BRICS with its own rails. These trade deals sharpen the contours of that bifurcation.

Practical signals to watch

• Which nations receive settlement-rail access, swap line support or credit enhancements following trade deals.

• Whether new trade agreements explicitly mention payment-system or financial-infrastructure cooperation.

• If nations outside the U.S.–Japan–Australia bloc accelerate links with BRICS or non-U.S.-settlement networks as a hedge.

Bottom line:
Trade is not just about goods and tariffs anymore — it’s about who controls the flow of payments, access to finance and settlement networks. These Asia-Pacific deals reshape the map of alliances, and finance will follow the trade.

This is not just politics — it’s global finance restructuring before our eyes.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources:

• Politico – Trump finalises trade deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, frameworks for Thailand & Vietnam

• Reuters – US signs trade deals with Cambodia, Malaysia under Trump

• White House Fact Sheet – President Trump Drives Forward Trade Deals with Southeast Asian Countries

~~~~~~~~~

Jerome Powell’s Rate Cut — Monetary Shift, Global Fallout

Why the Fed’s decision matters not just for the U.S., but for the emerging global financial order

Overview
The Federal Reserve, under Chair Powell, cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75 %-4.00 % on October 29 2025. However, Powell signalled that further cuts are not guaranteed, injecting uncertainty into the global liquidity outlook. 

Key developments

• The second rate cut in 2025 comes amid concerns of labour-market softness and economic slowing. 

• Powell emphasised that “a further reduction of the policy rate in December is not a foregone conclusion.” 

• The Fed’s statement reaffirmed its dual mandate of maximum employment and inflation-at-2 %. 

What this means for global alliances

• Reserve-currency signalling: A U.S. rate cut weakens the dollar’s yield advantage, prompting reserve-holders and trade partners to reconsider currency-diversification and settlement-systems.

• Liquidity shifting: Lower U.S. policy rates can drive capital flows toward emerging markets — those that can offer stable settlement rails become more attractive partners.

• Monetary policy as geo-economic tool: The Fed’s stance influences global yields, funding costs and the competitive positioning of monetary blocs (U.S./G7 vs. BRICS).

How this accelerates financial restructuring

• Lower U.S. rates reduce the structural advantage of dollar-funded trade and settlement systems — creating space for alternative currency systems and rails to gain traction.

• Uncertainty about future U.S. policy increases incentives for countries to seek non-dollar settlement channels and to build reserves in other currencies or hard assets.

• The link between trade/settlement infrastructure and national currency policy becomes tighter — monetary policy decisions matter for alliance structuring and settlement networks.

Practical signals to watch

• Movement in carry trades and dollar funding-cost spreads.

• Reserve-currency diversification announcements from major economies (e.g., central banks increasing non-USD holdings).

• New settlement deals in local currencies following or triggered by the Fed’s rate change.

Bottom line:
A seemingly domestic monetary policy decision — a rate cut by the Fed — is in fact a signal in the global architecture. It influences alliances, settlement rails and the balance of financial power.

This is not just politics — it’s global finance restructuring before our eyes. 

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive

Sources:

• Reuters – Fed lowers rates, but Powell suggests move may be the last of 2025

• CBS News – Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 0.25%

• Axios – Fed cuts again but signals December cut uncertain

~~~~~~~~~

Seeds of Wisdom Team RV Currency Facts Youtube and Rumble

Newshound's News Telegram Room Link

Follow the Gold/Silver Rate COMEX

Follow Fast Facts

Seeds of Wisdom Team™ Website

Thank you Dinar Recaps

“Tidbits From TNT” Thursday Morning 10-30-2025

TNT:

Tishwash:  A mysterious visit and closed-door meetings: Trump's envoy arrives in Baghdad "secretly" and meets with prominent political leaders.

On Wednesday (October 29, 2025), journalist Hossam Al-Hajj, known for his close ties to political parties, leaked that Mark Savaya, the special envoy of US President Donald Trump, arrived in Baghdad two days prior and held a series of secret meetings with several heads of political blocs.

According to information relayed by Al-Hajj, the meetings took place away from the spotlight and had a sensitive political character, addressing the upcoming American strategy in Iraq, issues related to the American presence, elections, and regional alliances.

There has been no official confirmation yet from the US Embassy or the Iraqi government regarding the visit or details of the meetings held by the US envoy.  link

Tishwash:  The constitutional clock is ticking... A deputy announces the end date of the parliament's term and reveals the "last minute" sessions. 

Member of Parliament’s Legal Committee, Murtada al-Saadi, revealed on Wednesday (October 29, 2025) the constitutional date for the end of the current session of the House of Representatives, speaking about the possibility of holding limited sessions after the upcoming elections to complete postponed legislation.

Al-Saadi told Baghdad Today, “The current House of Representatives held its first session after taking the constitutional oath on January 9, 2022, and according to constitutional and legal procedures, it can continue to hold sessions and vote on laws until January 9, 2026, that is, after four full years of the current term.”

He explained that “this legal cover gives Parliament the authority to hold sessions, discuss draft laws, conduct readings, and ultimately vote on them,” but he ruled out “holding any new session before November 11, due to the political blocs being preoccupied with election campaigns and field activities.”

He added that “Parliament will hold only one or two sessions after the elections to decide on a group of laws that have reached advanced stages of discussion, especially those that enjoy broad political consensus,” indicating that “a number of these laws have completed the first and second reading stages and are ready to be put to a vote in the coming period.”

This clarification comes as the electoral process enters its final stages, with parliamentary work having been suspended for weeks due to political blocs being preoccupied with alliances and election campaigning. Observers predict that the current session may conclude after the approval of a limited set of laws before the start of the new session in early 2026.  link

************

Tishwash:  International Smart Card (QiCard) Showcases Iraq’s Fintech Leadership at Money 20/20 USA “From Iraq to the World” 

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates--(BUSINESS WIRE)--International Smart Card (QiCard), Iraq’s leading provider electronic payment solutions, set to represent Iraq’s rapidly advancing fintech sector at Money 20/20 USA 2025, the world’s most influential event for payments, banking financial innovation, taking place October 26–29, 2025 in Las Vegas.

Official sponsor, International Smart Card (QiCard) marks a defining moment for Iraq’s digital economy demonstrating how a nation once limited by cash is now exporting innovation, financial inclusion, trusted technology globally.

“QiCard was born from a belief that Iraq can be a source of innovation, not just a beneficiary of it,” said Ali Moneim, CEO of International Smart Card (QiCard). “Our participation at Money 20/20 isn’t simply about presence; it’s about proudly sharing an Iraqi success story that has transformed millions of lives through secure and accessible financial technology.”

At the event, QiCard will showcase its biometric smart card systems, secure e-payment infrastructure, and pioneering financial inclusion initiatives that have empowered over 19 million citizens and 50,000 merchants across Iraq. The company’s mission extends beyond technology — it seeks to build a connected Iraq where digital trust and economic participation are within everyone’s reach.

“Our growth has always been driven by empathy and accessibility,” said Ahmed Kadhim, CIO at International Smart Card (QiCard). “Every innovation begins with the needs of our people — from retirees to students and that human-first approach is what we’re proud to present to the global fintech community.”

Money 20/20 USA brings together more than 10,000 industry leaders from financial institutions, regulators, and investors to shape the future of finance. QiCard’s participation underscores Iraq’s emergence as a new fintech hub in the Middle East — proving that local expertise and global standards can coexist to drive sustainable innovation.

“Innovation is not a department at QiCard — it’s our identity,” said Hasan Abdulhadi, Chief Innovation Officer at International Smart Card (QiCard). “From developing biometric authentication to building interoperable payment ecosystems, our goal is to take Iraqi ingenuity beyond borders — to show that solutions born in Baghdad can compete globally.”

Through its participation, QiCard reinforces its commitment to expanding cross-border partnerships, attracting investment to Iraq’s fintech sector, and championing the message that progress, innovation, and financial empowerment can emerge from anywhere.

QiCard is bridging local innovation with global impact.  link

Mot: To-do list

Mot: Over 40 vibes

Fed Cuts Rates to 4% as Market Liquidity Drains

Fed Cuts Rates to 4% as Market Liquidity Drains

Lena Petrova:  10-29-2025

The financial world is holding its breath as the Federal Reserve gears up for its next highly anticipated policy decision. While a quarter-point interest rate cut seems almost a foregone conclusion for many, the real story – the one with profound implications for markets and the economy – lies in what happens to the Fed’s massive balance sheet.

Specifically, all eyes are on the future of Quantitative Tightening (QT), the Fed’s quiet but powerful program of shrinking its asset portfolio. And according to recent insights, we might be on the cusp of a significant pivot away from tightening.

To understand the shift, let’s quickly recap. During times of crisis, like the 2008 financial meltdown and the C***D-19 pandemic, the Fed aggressively expanded its balance sheet, buying trillions of dollars in bonds and other assets. This “Quantitative Easing” (QE) injected massive liquidity into the system, aiming to stabilize markets and stimulate the economy.

Once the immediate crises passed and inflation became a concern, the Fed began Quantitative Tightening (QT). This involves allowing those bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds, effectively pulling money out of the financial system. The Fed’s balance sheet, which soared to nearly $9 trillion, has since shrunk to around $6.5 trillion. The goal: to normalize the economy after years of extraordinary stimulus.

For months, the Fed has been on autopilot with QT. But signs are emerging that the financial plumbing is getting too tight. Liquidity in short-term funding markets, where banks and financial institutions borrow from each other overnight, has been showing signs of stress. We’ve seen troubling spikes in overnight borrowing rates, indicating a scramble for cash.

With cash flowing out due to the TGA and no longer being absorbed by the RRP, the ongoing QT program is acting as a “double whammy,” further draining liquidity and making short-term markets increasingly fragile.

Against this backdrop, many economists believe the Federal Reserve will soon pause or even end its QT program. Why? To prevent a full-blown liquidity crisis and stabilize funding markets.

Ending QT would mark a subtle but powerful shift. It wouldn’t be “Quantitative Easing” (QE) – the Fed wouldn’t be actively buying assets again right away. Instead, it would be a move from actively withdrawing liquidity to a more supportive stance, ceasing the drain and allowing market conditions to normalize. This could involve adjustments to the Fed’s standing repo facility to ensure ample liquidity.

The Fed’s upcoming decision is more than just a number on interest rates. It’s a recalibration of its entire monetary strategy, impacting everything from your mortgage rates to corporate borrowing costs. It’s a testament to the complex balancing act central banks perform to keep the economic engine running smoothly.

For a deeper dive into these crucial developments, I highly recommend watching the full video from Lena Petrova, which provides further insights and context.

https://youtu.be/ZJT92zuJj2Q