“Tidbits From TNT” Sunday 2-22-2026
TNT:
Tishwash: Cooperation conditions and potential sanctions: Baghdad returns to Washington's priorities
The United States has strongly entered the political crisis in Iraq, after explicitly linking the future of bilateral cooperation to the arms issue and the formation of the next government, in a move that indicates Washington's shift to a position of direct influence in shaping the power equation, according to the "Eram News " website.
The website stated in a report seen by Al-Sa’a Network, quoting its sources, that “what is happening in Iraq cannot be described as passing pressure or a traditional diplomatic stance, but rather it is part of an American decision to rearrange the political landscape after years of managing the crisis remotely .”
He added that "the United States, which established the political system after 2003 and sponsored its basic paths, sees today that the equation of internal balance has been disrupted in favor of a specific regional influence, so it is trying to reset the rules of the game, whether through financial tools or by linking the form of the next government to determinants related to sovereignty and weapons ."
He pointed out that "the Iraqi file has returned to the White House's priorities in light of regional tensions, US-Iranian negotiations, and the fear that Iraq will become a complete base for one axis, which Washington does not consider a strategically acceptable option ."
The report indicated that "the renewed American interest in Iraq is inseparable from a broader equation related to managing Iranian influence in the region, but Washington realizes that any direct confrontational approach could threaten internal stability ."
He pointed out that "the US administration is trying to achieve a delicate balance; it is not seeking to ignite the situation in Iraq, but it wants a government capable of controlling weapons outside the framework of the state and reducing the influence of factions on sovereign decision-making, because the continuation of this reality weakens the strategic partnership and complicates the energy, investment and security files ."
He explained that "the pressure will not be military, but will take the form of political messages and perhaps financial measures or specific sanctions, while keeping the door open for understanding with any government that provides practical assurances regarding the restriction of weapons and regulating the relationship with Iran ."
Despite the clear American influence in shaping the equations of governance in Iraq during the past years, the last few months have witnessed a broader and more diverse involvement, not limited to the issue of weapons or the formation of the government, but extending to sensitive economic and financial files, including mechanisms for dollar transfers, regulating the banking sector, and controlling the movement of funds related to foreign trade link
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Tishwash: Among them is "withdrawing his candidacy"... The options for the coordination framework regarding Maliki have been revealed
Informed sources confirmed on Saturday that the forces of the Coordination Framework are planning to hold an expanded meeting to end the political deadlock by deciding on Nouri al-Maliki’s nomination for the premiership, either by keeping him or replacing him.
Sources told Shafaq News Agency that "the coordination framework, which brings together the Shiite political forces, is moving towards holding a meeting to end the political deadlock and agree on a unified position regarding the prime minister candidate."
He adds that "the current approach is to choose a figure who suits the circumstances surrounding the country and the economic and security challenges, provided that a date is set for the parliament session to elect the president of the republic, who in turn will task the framework candidate with forming the government."
He pointed out that "the meeting will address the issue of the continued nomination of the head of the State of Law Coalition, Nouri al-Maliki, or his personal withdrawal, or the framework will decide to officially withdraw his nomination and look for an alternative."
The “coordination framework,” which includes ruling Shiite political forces in Iraq, is witnessing a division over the nomination of Maliki for the next government, amid American warnings of the repercussions of his selection, which prompted forces within the coalition to try to persuade him to withdraw in order to preserve the unity of the framework.
In contrast, Maliki has declared on more than one occasion his adherence to his candidacy and believes that withdrawing from it should be done by an official decision from the framework.
The escalating American pressure on Iraq comes as a translation of President Donald Trump’s explicit threats, which included criticism of the previous course taken by Maliki when he assumed the premiership for 8 years.
On January 24, 2026, the Coordination Framework announced the nomination of Nouri al-Maliki, head of the State of Law Coalition, for the position of Prime Minister, with a majority vote from its constituent groups. link
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Tishwash: Why is Iraq betting on US Treasury bonds despite the erosion of global confidence?
$40.8 billion at the heart of the storm
At a time when global markets are witnessing escalating debate about the future of US Treasury bonds and the dollar's role in the international financial system, Baghdad increased its holdings of these bonds to approximately $40.8 billion by the end of December 2025, an increase of $1.1 billion in a single month, representing a growth rate of 74% compared to January of the same year.
According to data from the US Treasury Department, "Iraq's holdings of US Treasury bonds for December 2025 increased by $1.1 billion, reaching $40.8 billion, up from $39.7 billion in the preceding month." The data also showed that these holdings increased by 74% compared to January 2025, when they stood at $23.4 billion.
Treasury bonds: Between historical confidence and modern turmoil
For decades, US Treasury bonds have been considered the cornerstone of the global financial system, the safe haven for investors in times of crisis, the gold standard for sovereign debt, and the foundation of the global capital market – a status rooted in the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944.
However, the period between 2024 and 2025 witnessed a decline in unconditional confidence in this financial instrument, with yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds rising to more than 5.2%, their highest levels since 2007, amid an annual budget deficit exceeding $1.8 trillion, debt service costs exceeding $514 billion annually, along with growing US political division and a decline in some investors' confidence in the long-term ability to manage the debt.
In this context, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, the Prime Minister's Advisor for Economic and Financial Affairs, stated that "Iraq's foreign exchange reserves portfolio, denominated in US dollars and other foreign currencies, constitutes a specialized national sovereign wealth fund directly linked to monetary policy objectives aimed at maintaining the stability of the monetary system and preserving the external value of the Iraqi dinar, particularly exchange rate stability."
Speaking to Al-Mada, Salih explained that "Iraq's increased holdings of US Treasury bonds are structurally linked to its location within the 'dollar zone,' given that the primary source of foreign currency is oil revenues (petrodollars). Therefore, allocating a portion of the dollar reserves to US sovereign debt instruments is a natural practice consistent with international reserve management principles."
He explained that “diversifying the dollar portfolio through investment in US Treasury bonds represents a low-risk option, given their high liquidity, high sovereign credit rating, and the strength of the US economy.” He pointed out that “Iraq’s direct and indirect ties to global financial markets, particularly the US market, make this investment part of a strategy for managing reserves efficiently and safely.”
He added that public data indicates that “approximately 30% of US Treasury bonds traded in the markets are owned by foreign entities, compared to about 70% owned by institutions and investors within the United States, such as the Federal Reserve, pension funds, banks, and domestic investors.”
According to data from the US Treasury Department as of the end of 2025, the largest holders of US Treasury bonds are Japan with approximately $1.2 trillion, followed by the United Kingdom with approximately $888.5 billion, then the People's Republic of China with approximately $682.6 billion, and Luxembourg with approximately $423 billion, in addition to other countries.
Saleh emphasized that "investing Iraq's official reserves in US Treasury bonds falls under the prudent management of sovereign dollar wealth and is part of a stable and balanced foreign monetary policy whose primary goal is to enhance confidence in the national economy and protect the country's financial stability."
For his part, economist Haider al-Kafishi believes that "investing approximately $30 billion in US Treasury bonds is a safe option with financial benefits, but it could expose the country to political pressure."
Al-Kafishi told Al-Mada that “Iraq is resorting to this type of investment due to the high level of spending on reconstruction, as well as its efforts to diversify its foreign reserves and avoid potential political and social upheavals.” He explained that “Iraq has divided its investments between long-term investments, estimated at around $28 billion, and short-term investments, amounting to $12 billion.”
He pointed out that “short-term investments contribute to generating financial returns and supporting the stability of the dinar's exchange rate, in addition to the ease of converting them into cash when needed.”
He noted that “there are paradoxes in investing in US Treasury bonds for a country like Iraq, especially since their interest rates are subject to the policies of the US Federal Reserve, which may affect returns and cast a shadow on investors.”
He indicated that “Iraq may be exposed to political pressure as a result of this type of investment,” pointing out that “the sum of $40 or $41 billion, despite its importance, is not considered large compared to the size of the US economy, at a time when the government is striving to attract foreign investors to invest within the country.”
He concluded by saying that “there are investment opportunities within Iraq that can generate higher financial returns than those offered by US Treasury bonds, which are considered low-yielding compared to some local sectors.”
The 2024-2025 crisis reveals deeper shifts in the structure of the global financial system, where US Treasury bonds are no longer immune to geopolitical and financial fluctuations. With some major central banks moving to reduce their holdings, a serious debate has emerged about the future of the dollar as the dominant reserve currency.
Nevertheless, from a monetary policy perspective, Iraqi investment in US bonds remains part of a defensive strategy aimed at protecting reserves and ensuring exchange rate stability, rather than a pursuit of high returns. link
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